01

• Steady GDP growth as external demand recovers
  随着外部需求复苏，GDP稳步增长
• Domestic consumption resilient underpinned by low unemployment
  低失业率支撑国内消费韧性
• Interest rates still high but are likely to have peaked, with inflation poised to come down
  利率仍然很高，但可能已经见顶，通胀有望回落

02

• More Grade A office supply coming onto the market
  更多甲级写字楼供应即将上市
• Rents not expected to fall but growth to slow
  预计租金不会下降，但增长将放缓
• Negotiate early for better leasing terms
  尽早协商以获得更好的租赁条款

03

• Interest rates need to fall further for a full recovery investment volumes but some investors entering ahead of the curve
  利率需要进一步下降才能全面复苏，投资量，但一些投资者走在曲线之前
• Good demand for hotels, retail and commercial assets with value-add or repurposing potential
  对具有增值或再利用潜力的酒店、零售和商业资产的良好需求

ECONOMY 经济

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Singapore's economy to grow in 2024 , higher than 2023 's growth of . That said, growth forecasts have been tempered down from close to at the start of the year.
  新加坡经济将在2024年增长 ，高于2023年的增长 。尽管如此，增长预测已从年初开始 有所下调。
• While economic growth was not as strong as initially envisaged, unemployment remains low and wage growth remains robust, signaling economic resilience. Inflation is poised to come down lower in 2024.
  虽然经济增长没有最初设想的那么强劲，但失业率仍然很低，工资增长仍然强劲，这表明经济具有韧性。通胀有望在2024年下降。
• With steady global economic growth, external demand is picking up. NODX is expected to return to growth in 2024, after a steep decline in 2023
  随着全球经济稳步增长，外部需求正在回升。NODX 在 2023 年急剧下降后，预计将在 2024 年恢复增长
• Consumer-facing sectors continue to benefit from resilient domestic consumption and recovering tourism with growing retail sales and rising international visitor arrivals.
  面向消费者的行业继续受益于国内消费的韧性和旅游业的复苏，零售额增长和国际游客人数增加。
• Notwithstanding unique headwinds faced by some property segments, the overall property market performance remains encouraging though demand is weighed down by still-high interest rates.
  尽管一些房地产行业面临独特的不利因素，但整体房地产市场表现仍然令人鼓舞，尽管需求受到仍然高利率的拖累。

OFFICE 办公室

• IOI Central Boulevard Towers has achieved partial TOP in Q2 2024, for simplicity we have included the entire stock into Q2 2024.
  IOI Central Boulevard Towers 在 2024 年第二季度实现了部分 TOP，为简单起见，我们已将全部库存纳入 2024 年第二季度。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• CBD Grade A office vacancy rates have increased to as of Q2 2024 (from in Q1 2024), as IOI Central Boulevard Towers* ( 1.3 msf office nla) comes online and is estimated to be about committed.
  截至 2024 年第二季度（从 2024 年第一季度开始），CBD A 级写字楼空置率已上升至 IOI Central Boulevard Towers*（1.3 msf office nla）上线，预计已投入 使用。
• While a substantial proportion of vacant space stems from IOI Central Boulevard Towers, overall office net demand has remained sluggish. Excluding IOI Central Boulevard towers, office net demand for H 1 2024 is at 64,000 sf, less than the net demand of 72,000 sf in H 12023).
  虽然很大一部分空置空间来自IOI Central Boulevard Towers，但整体办公净需求仍然低迷。不包括IOI Central Boulevard塔楼，2024年上半年的写字楼净需求为64,000平方英尺，低于12023年上半年的72,000平方英尺的净需求。
• The market remains at a standstill. There are pockets of activities due to Singapore's strategic location as a regional business hub, flight to quality trend. However, high interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainty, occupiers' CapEx constraints would continue to temper new office demand.
  市场仍处于停滞状态。由于新加坡作为区域商业中心的战略位置，有一些活动，飞向质量趋势。然而，高利率、全球地缘政治不确定性、租户的资本支出限制将继续抑制新的写字楼需求。
• More secondary spaces are also coming online, with some large occupiers aligning their current workplaces with hybrid work arrangements.
  更多的二级空间也正在上线，一些大型租户将他们目前的工作场所与混合工作安排相结合。

Cooling rent growth 租金增长降温

OFFICE RENTS 写字楼租金

• Due to the addition/removal of buildings in our CBD Grade B office rental basket
  由于我们CBD乙级写字楼租赁篮子中的建筑物的增加/拆除

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• In a weakening office market, the market will see a steeper bifurcation across Grade A and non-Grade A office stock. CBD Grade A office rents grew by ytd in H 12024 compared to CBD Grade B offices rents which fell ytd. CBD Grade A offices and Decentralised offices, driven by newer developments, are expected to see marginal growth of about in 2024
  在写字楼市场疲软的情况下，甲级和非甲级写字楼存量的分化将更加陡峭。12024 年上半年，CBD A 级写字楼租金 年初至今增长，而 CBD B 级写字楼租金年初至今有所下降 。在新开发项目的推动下，CBD甲级写字楼和分散式写字楼预计将在2024年实现边 际增长
• Many Grade A office landlords, encouraged by still-high occupancy rates, continue to be sanguine on the long-term prospects of the Singapore office market and have largely held on to their asking rents.
  许多甲级写字楼业主在仍然高入住率的鼓舞下，继续对新加坡写字楼市场的长期前景持乐观态度，并在很大程度上维持了他们的要价租金。
• Notwithstanding the rise of hybrid work, the current weak office demand is believed to be cyclical, and demand is expected to recover in 2025 as interest rate concerns recede and the conclusion of US elections.
  尽管混合办公兴起，但目前疲软的写字楼需求被认为是周期性的，随着利率担忧的消退和美国大选的结束，预计需求将在 2025 年复苏。
• New supply pressure will also taper off from 2025 to 2027.
  从2025年到2027年，新的供应压力也将逐渐减弱。

OFFICE 办公室

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Banking and Finance occupiers, which dominated the CBD office demand last year, driving of new leasing demand in the CBD, slowed in H1 2024 YTD. Despite the pull-back in demand, the growth of family offices and rising investment interest in Southeast Asia, should fuel the future expansion of wealth management firms.
  去年 主导CBD写字楼需求的银行和金融租户推动了CBD的新租赁需求，但在2024年上半年放缓。尽管需求回落，但家族办公室的增长和东南亚投资兴趣的增加，应该会推动财富管理公司未来的扩张。
• Amidst an overall slowdown in new office demand and the absence of large deals, new CBD office demand has diversified in 2024 with slightly higher leasing activities from Technology, Media & Telecom and Professional Services, Chemicals, Energy, Oi & Gas and Consumer Products & Services sectors.
  在新写字楼需求整体放缓和缺乏大型交易的情况下，2024年新的CBD写字楼需求已经多样化，技术、媒体和电信以及专业服务、化工、能源、Oi和天然气以及消费品和服务行业的租赁活动略有增加。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Singapore is implementing guidelines on flexible work arrangements (FWA). All employers must fairly consider FWA requests from December 2024. Employers have discretion to reject FWA requests if not viable from the business standpoint.
  新加坡正在实施关于灵活工作安排（FWA）的指导方针。从 2024 年 12 月起，所有雇主都必须公平考虑 FWA 请求。如果从商业角度来看不可行，雇主可以自行决定拒绝 FWA 请求。
• The implementation of FWA guidelines is not expected to spur a wave of right-sizing as many multinationals companies who are key occupiers of Grade A office space, have already institutionalised FWA after the pandemic. Most Singapore workers have returned to the office with the office seen as a place for collaboration and connection.
  FWA指南的实施预计不会刺激规模调整的浪潮，因为许多跨国公司是甲级写字楼的主要租户，在大流行后已经将FWA制度化。大多数新加坡员工已经回到办公室，办公室被视为协作和联系的地方。
• A larger impact (from FWA guidelines) may be seen in older CBD and decentralised offices which are typically occupied by smaller local companies who may not have institutionalised FWA policies but would be more aware of the potential benefits of FWA. This could lead to higher vacancy rates in older office buildings over time
  较旧的CBD和分散式办公室可能会产生更大的影响（来自FWA指南），这些办公室通常由较小的本地公司占据，这些公司可能没有将FWA政策制度化，但会更了解FWA的潜在好处。随着时间的推移，这可能会导致旧办公楼的空置率更高

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• A combination of hybrid work and continued efforts to improve cost efficiency amidst tightened financing conditions continues to spur right-sizing in the market. Against this backdrop, a significant amount of secondary CBD Grade A office space would be coming onto the market in . Most of this is expected to stem from the Raffles Place and Marina Bay submarkets.
  在融资条件收紧的情况下，混合工作和持续努力提高成本效率的结合继续刺激市场的适当规模。在此背景下，大量CBD二级甲级办公空间将进入市场 。预计其中大部分将来自莱佛士坊和滨海湾子市场。
• Upcoming secondary spaces would stem from few large occupiers as they relocate or right size as their existing leases expire. For example, tech giant Meta will be consolidating at Marina One and will be giving up space at South Beach Tower.
  即将到来的二级空间将源于少数大型租户搬迁或随着现有租约到期而调整规模。例如，科技巨头 Meta 将在 Marina One 进行整合，并将放弃 South Beach Tower 的空间。
• Given slower office leasing activities and higher levels of upcoming supply, there is a window of opportunity for occupiers looking for Grade A offices in a historically tight office market.
  鉴于写字楼租赁活动放缓和即将到来的供应水平上升，在历来紧张的写字楼市场中寻找甲级写字楼的租户有一个机会之窗。

INDUSTRIAL 工业

Key Takeaways 

• Industrial demand remains divergent by property type. Logistics and factories remain in steady demand, while office-like properties (business parks, high-tech factories) face reduced demand due to hybrid work and space optimisation. 
• Due to resilient demand and limited new supply, prime logistics and warehouses should see continued rental growth, albeit slowing, amidst higher tenant resistance and elevated interest rates. High-tech factory rents have continued to grow with the inclusion of new stock into our rental basket. 
• Suburban business parks may see moderate or flattish growth given a slowdown in demand and higher new supply. That said, as city fringe business park rents continue to grow, demand could eventually gravitate towards suburban business parks, where rents are lower 

INDUSTRIAL 

SUPPLY 供应

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• The industrial supply pipeline remains reasonable with both multi-user factories and warehouse new supply in 2024 below their 10-year averages.
  工业供应渠道仍然合理，2024 年多用户工厂和仓库新供应均低于 10 年平均水平。
• Single-user factories would see record high new supply in 2024, though these stock is not expected to significantly impact the market as most stock has been pre-committed by end-users. Though a small proportion of these stock may be sublet and could compete with multi-user factories.
  2024 年，单用户工厂的新供应量将创下历史新高，尽管这些库存预计不会对市场产生重大影响，因为大多数库存已由最终用户预先承诺。尽管这些库存中的一小部分可能是转租的，并且可能会与多用户工厂竞争。
• Ample business park stock coming onstream in 2024 and 2025 would continue to pressure business park rents. A significant proportion stems from Punggol Digital District, which is reportedly pre-committed.
  2024 年和 2025 年投产的大量商业园区库存将继续给商业园区租金带来压力。其中很大一部分来自榜鹅数字区，据报道 ，该区是预先承诺的。
• Warehouse market remains relatively tight in 2024, though some secondary spaces have emerged. New prime logistics remains sought after. For example, 36 Tuas Road, a multi-user prime logistics facility (completing in Q4 2024) is estimated to be pre-committed.
  2024 年仓库市场仍然相对紧张，尽管出现了一些二级空间。新的主要物流仍然受到追捧。例如，大士路 36 号是一个多用户主要物流设施（将于 2024 年第四季度完工）估计已 预先投入使用。

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

SINGLE-USER FACTORY SUPPLY, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY
单用户工厂供应、吸收和空置

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Single-user factory vacancy rates have been climbing upwards, reaching as of Q1 2024, a historical high.
  单用户工厂空置率一直在攀升，截至 2024 年第一季度达到 历史新高。
• This could be partly due to increasing excess space stemming from declining industries as some cut back operations in Singapore due to cost considerations or supply chain decisions. These occupiers may have spaces in highly sought-after locations but are unable to sublet them out due to subletting or usage restrictions. As such, some industrial spaces are not efficiently utilized.
  这可能部分是由于由于一些行业因成本考虑或供应链决策而削减了在新加坡的业务，导致行业下滑导致的过剩空间增加。这些占用者可能在抢手的地点拥有空间，但由于转租或使用限制而无法转租。因此，一些工业空间没有得到有效利用。
• On the other hand, there is demand from fast-growing industries such as aerospace, particularly in the eastern region of Singapore.
  另一方面，航空航天等快速增长的行业有需求，特别是在新加坡东部地区。
• This has driven an artificial mismatch in supply and demand. Excess space in singleuser factories is increasing but demand is partially capped due to current policies. As such, there could be scope to tweak current subletting and usage restriction rules to optimise land use.
  这导致了人为的供需错配。单用户工厂的过剩空间正在增加，但由于当前政策，需求受到部分限制。因此，可以调整当前的转租和使用限制规则，以优化土地使用。

RETAIL 零售

• Refers to retail units no more than 2,000 sf with the best frontage, footfall and accessibility in a mall. They are typically at ground level., street-facing or the basementlevel of a retail mall that is linked to a MRT or bus station. It is based on average rents of the prime floors in a basket of shopping malls that C&W track.
  指商场内面积不超过2,000平方呎的零售单位，拥有最佳的临街面、客流量和交通便利性。它们通常位于地面、临街或与地铁站或公交车站相连的零售商场的地下室。它基于C&W跟踪的一篮子购物中心中黄金地段的平均租金。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Orchard prime retail rents grew ytd in H1 2024, higher than the Suburban and Other City Area prime retail rents which climbed and ytd respectively in the same period
  2024年上半年，乌节优质零售租金年初至今增长 ，高于同期分别攀升 的 郊区和其他城市地区优质零售租金
• Orchard and Other City Areas rents were driven by a tourism recovery, bolstered by the Singapore-China visa-free scheme and a strong line-up of leisure and MICE events
  乌节路和其他城市地区的租金受到旅游业复苏的推动，这得益于新加坡-中国免签证计划以及一系列强大的休闲和会展活动
• Overall retail vacancy rates in Orchard have declined to in Q1 2024, a 4.5 year low. Other City Areas vacancy rates fell to in Q1 2024, from 10.0% in Q1 2023.
  乌节路的整体零售空置率 已降至 2024 年第一季度，为 4.5 年来的最低点。其他城市地区的空置率从 2023 年第一季度的 10.0% 降至 2024 年第一季度。
• Suburban prime retail spaces remains highly sought after, with vacancy rates at in Q1 2024. Overall suburban prime retail rents are expected to grow by , supported by rising footfalls amidst a growing population and resilient consumer spending.
  郊区黄金地段零售空间仍然备受追捧，空置率将在 2024 年第一季度达到 。在人口增长和消费者支出有弹性的情况下，客流量增加，预计整体郊区优质零售租金将增长 。
• Some malls are seeing double-digit rental reversions for certain units as leases signed during the pandemic come up for renewal.
  随着疫情期间签订的租约即将续签，一些购物中心的某些单位的租金出现了两位数的回升。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• New supply in the Singapore retail market remains low. From 2024 to 2028, new retail supply is expected to be , about half of the annum from 2017 to 2 O 23).
  新加坡零售市场的新供应量仍然很低。从2024年到2028年，预计新零售供应 量约为2017年至2028 年的一半。
• The majority (61%) of new retail supply will stem from the Suburban retail market. While the Orchard retail market will only contribute with the retail component of the renovated Grand Hyatt Hotel Singapore and the redevelopment of The Cathay expected to be completed in 2024
  大部分（61%）的新零售供應將來自郊區零售市場。而烏節零售市場將只為翻新后的新加坡君悅酒店的零售部分做出貢獻 ，而國泰酒店的重建預計將於 2024 年完成
• The limited upcoming retail supply would continue to underpin retail rental growth.
  即將到來的零售供應有限將繼續支撐零售租金增長。
• However, e-commerce and online entertainment platforms will continue to shape the retail landscape and increasingly accentuate a two-tier market, where the best malls attract most of the footfalls and the weaker malls continue to struggle.
  然而，電子商務和在線娛樂平臺將繼續塑造零售格局，並日益突出兩級市場，其中最好的購物中心吸引了大部分客流量，而較弱的購物中心將繼續苦苦掙扎。
• This dynamic could drive more redevelopments in the future.
  這種動態可能會推動未來更多的重建。

• Store openings include retailers or brands that expanded, relocated or reopened as of June 2024 YTD
  新開的門店包括截至 2024 年 6 月年初至今擴建、搬遷或重新開業的零售商或品牌

Key Takeaways 關鍵要點

• Activity-based retailers such as F&B continue to be the main drivers of retail demand amidst the adoption of e-commerce
  在採用電子商務的過程中，食品和飲料等基於活動的零售商仍然是零售需求的主要驅動力
• Over half of the retail openings in prime malls during the first half of 2024 were by F&B operators such as local casual Chinese eatery Gong Yuan Ma La Tang, which added at least four new outlets, and casual dining restaurant Mamma Mia Trattoria E Caffè, which opened 2 more locations, bringing its total to 7 outlets
  2024年上半年，超過一半的優質購物中心零售店是由餐飲經營者開設的，例如本地休閒中餐館Gong Yuan 馬 La Tang，增加了至少四家新店，以及休閒餐廳Mamma Mia Trattoria E Caffè，又開設了2家分店，使其總數達到7家
• Casual diners, offering an often-quicker dining experience with moderately-priced cuisine, are among the fastest-growing concepts in the F&B sector. As at June 2024 YTD, over a quarter (29%) of the F&B openings we monitored were casual dining concepts and brands.
  休閒食客以價格適中的美食提供更快捷的用餐體驗，是餐飲行業增長最快的概念之一。截至 2024 年 6 月年初至今，我們監測的餐飲新開店中，超過四分之一 （29%） 是休閒餐飲概念和品牌。
• With consumers becoming more cautious in their spending amid higher cost of living, casual dining concepts that can provide the good value for money while delivering quality dining experiences may further expand.
  隨著生活成本上升，消費者在消費上變得更加謹慎，在提供優質用餐體驗的同時提供物有所值的休閒餐飲概念可能會進一步擴大。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• New-to-market brands continue to emerge as they position for the steady market recovery. For example, French sports company Salomon debuted at Raffles City and expanded another outlet at Bugis Junction this year.
  随着市场稳步复苏，新进入市场的品牌不断涌现。例如，法国体育公司所罗门（Salomon）在莱佛士城（Raffles City）首次亮相，并于今年在武吉士交界处（Bugis Junction）开设了另一家分店。
• Singapore continues to draw Chinese retailers who look to the Southeast Asian consumer market for diversification amid China's slowdown. Chinese F&B operators who forayed into Singapore this year include burger chain Bingz at Westgate and Sichuan cuisine restaurant Wo Wo Dian at Raffles City.
  在中国经济放缓的情况下，新加坡继续吸引中国零售商，他们将目光投向东南亚消费市场寻求多元化。今年进军新加坡的中国餐饮运营商包括位于Westgate的汉堡连锁店Bingz和位于莱佛士城的川菜餐厅Wo Wo Dian。
• Some international brands have launched popup stores to gauge customer interest.
  一些国际品牌已经推出了快闪店，以衡量客户的兴趣。

• On the landlords' front, malls facing lower occupancies or newly renovated malls are striving to bring in new offerings to refresh their tenant mix and boost destination appeal.
  在业主方面，面临入住率较低的购物中心或新装修的购物中心正在努力引入新产品，以更新租户组合并提高目的地吸引力。

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL 私人住宅

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Buyers continue to exercise caution and wait on the sidelines due to a combination of factors, including current cooling measures, loan curbs, still-high interest rates and steep price levels. Overall volumes have fallen and are estimated to be around 9,500 units in H 1 2O24, similar to 9,509 units in H 12023).
  由于当前的降温措施、贷款限制、仍然高企的利率和陡峭的价格水平等多种因素，买家继续保持谨慎和观望。总销量有所下降，估计在 H 1 2O24 约为 9,500 个单位，与 H 12023 的 9,509 个单位相似。
• Despite weaker volumes, overall private residential prices are still increasing and are forecasted to grow by up to in 2024. With relatively low levels of unsold inventory and strong household balance sheets, prices are supported by firm holding power in the market and higher replacement costs.
  尽管销量疲软，但整体私人住宅价格仍在上涨，预计 到 2024 年将增长。由于未售出库存水平相对较低，家庭资产负债表强劲，价格受到市场坚守力和较高重置成本的支撑。
• Sales in H2 2024 could pick up, with a slew of launches expected and potentially lower interest rates. Local underlying demand in the market remains strong, with low unemployment rates, upgrading aspirations and preference to invest in property. Though given a slow H1 2024, overall volumes in 2024 is expected to end at about 19,000 units, similar to 2023
  2024 年下半年的销售可能会回升，预计会有一系列产品推出，利率可能会降低。本地市场的潜在需求仍然强劲，失业率低，愿望升级，投资房地产的偏好。尽管 2024 年上半年销量放缓，但预计 2024 年的总销量将达到约 19,000 辆，与 2023 年相似

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL RENTS
私人住宅租金

NEW LAUNCHES' PERFORMANCE*
新品发布会的表现*

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• While there is still appetite for new launches it has noticeably slowed in recent months as home buyers are more price-sensitive and selective, in view of a higher new launch pipeline.
  虽然对新推出的兴趣仍然存在，但近几个月来，由于购房者对价格更加敏感和挑剔，鉴于新推出的管道增加，因此近几个月来，这种需求明显放缓。
• In the first five months of 2024 , only one out of six (17%) major projects (100 units and above) launched has sold more than of total units within its first month of launch. This compares to four out of seven (57%) of new launches which were more than sold during the same period in 2023 (JanMay 2023)
  在2024年首五个月，推出的大型项目（100套及以上）中，只有六分之一（17%）在推出的第一个月内售出超过 总单位。相比之下，2023 年同期（2023 年 1 月）新推出的七分之四 （57%） 的销量超过 销量
• Several upcoming notable new launches in 2H 2024 such as Sora (440 units), Meyer Blue (226 units) and The Chuan Park (916 units) are expected to lift new sales volumes
  2024年下半年即将推出的几款值得注意的新产品，如Sora（440辆）、Meyer Blue（226辆）和The Chuan Park（916辆）预计将提高新的销量

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

LOWER LAND PRICES 降低土地价格

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Developers have adopted a more conservative stance in their land banking activities, despite still-low levels of unsold inventory, due to elevated financing costs and slowing buyer demand. This was highlighted by lower-than-expected winning bids at recent state tenders.
  尽管由于融资成本上升和买家需求放缓，未售出库存水平仍然很低，但开发商在土地储备活动中采取了更为保守的立场。在最近的州招标中，中标低于预期的中标突出了这一点。
• Recent GLS tenders such as River Valley Green (Parcel A), Zion Road (Parcel A) and Holland Drive were sold at lower bid prices compared to past land sales within similar localities.
  最近的GLS招标，如River Valley Green（A地块）、Zion Road（A地块）和Holland Drive，与过去类似地区的土地销售相比，以较低的投标价格出售。
• However, the release of the Zion Road (Parcel B) reserve list site, which was recently triggered, highlighted underlying developer confidence towards acquiring select sites with strong locational attributes and good future market demand
  然而，最近触发的锡安路（B地块）储备名单地块的发布，凸显了开发商对收购具有强大区位属性和良好未来市场需求的精选地块的潜在信心
• Given lower land prices, developers with strong financial firepower are in a good position to pick up plum sites at attractive prices.
  在地价较低的情况下，拥有强大财力的开发商处于有利地位，可以以有吸引力的价格购买梅花地块。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Despite lower-than-pre-pandemic (2019) occupancy rates, hotel Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace. 2024 YTD RevPAR is up by , compared to in 2023 (whole year). The growth in Average Room Rate (ARR) has continued, though slowing to about in 2024 ytd.
  尽管入住率低于大流行前（2019 年），但酒店每间可用客房收入 （RevPAR） 继续增长，尽管速度适中。与 2023 年（全年）相比 ，2024 年年初至今的 RevPAR 有所上升 。平均房价 （ARR） 的增长仍在继续，尽管在 2024 年年初至今放缓至左右 。
• ARR is supported by a combination of good demand given the tourism recovery and also higher property operating costs due to higher labour costs.
  ARR受到旅游业复苏带来的良好需求以及劳动力成本上升导致的物业运营成本上升的共同支持。
• Notwithstanding potential spikes from marquee events and concerts, ARR is expected to hover around current levels in 2024 due to more hotel room stock, softening "revenge travel" and intensified competition from other destinations in the region.
  尽管大型活动和音乐会可能会激增，但由于酒店客房库存增加、“报复性旅行”疲软以及来自该地区其他目的地的竞争加剧，预计 ARR 将在 2024 年徘徊在当前水平附近。
• RevPAR could inch up further with a steady return of Chinese travellers and the Average Occupancy Rate (AOR) of hotels remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
  随着中国旅客的稳步回归以及酒店平均入住率（AOR）仍低于疫情前的水平，RevPAR可能会进一步上升。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Hotel new supply is expected to come down over the next few years, supporting current hotel performance.
  预计未来几年酒店新供应量将下降，支持当前的酒店业绩。
• Hotel room supply could increase at average of per annum in 2024 and 2025, largely due to the expected opening or reopening of Grand Hyatt Singapore and a hotel development on Punggol Way by JTC in 2024, as well as Moxy Hotel and a hotel/serviced apartment development on 15 Hoe Chiang Road opening in 2025
  2024 年和 2025 年，酒店客房供应量可能以 平均每年的速度增加，这主要是由于新加坡君悦酒店预计将于 2024 年开业或重新开业，以及 2025 年会合清路 15 号的 Moxy 酒店和酒店/服务式公寓开发项目开业
• Hotel room supply growth may taper to an average of per annum between 2026 and 2028, way below the pre-pandemic average annual hotel supply growth of between 2015 and 2019.
  2026 年至 2028 年间，酒店客房供应增长可能会逐渐放缓至平均每年一次 ，远低于大流行前 2015 年至 2019 年的平均酒店供应年增长率。

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• According to STB forecasts, tourist arrivals could potentially reach 16.5 million tourist arrivals (86% of pre-covid levels) and $29 billion in tourism receipts (a record high). This translates to about in tourism receipts per capita for 2024 , about higher than pre-pandemic levels.
  根据 STB 的预测，游客人数可能达到 1650 万人次（是疫情前水平的 86%），旅游收入可能达到 290 亿美元（创历史新高）。这意味着 2024 年的人均旅游收入约为 ，略 高于大流行前的水平。
• The Singapore-China mutual visa-free scheme, along with a solid pipeline of marquee events, is expected to bolster visitor arrivals and beef up the overall hotel performance
  新加坡与中国的互免签证计划，以及一系列大型活动，预计将增加游客人数并提升酒店的整体业绩
• Some upcoming notable events this year are Wellness Festival Singapore 2024, Singapore Design Week 2024 and FHA-HoReCa 2024
  今年即将举行的一些值得注意的活动包括 2024 年新加坡健康节、2024 年新加坡设计周和 2024 年 FHA-HoReCa
• We do not anticipate a full recovery in visitor arrivals in 2024 due to the demand-side drag posed by China's economic slowdown, increased travel costs and intensifying regional tourism competition.
  我们预计2024年游客人数不会完全复苏，原因是中国经济放缓、旅游成本增加和区域旅游竞争加剧对需求侧的拖累。

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• The Chinese demand for outbound travel is expected to rise amidst the Singapore-China mutual visa-free scheme.
  在新加坡-中国相互免签证计划期间，中国对出境游的需求预计将上升。
• China has regained its spot as the top source market for visitor arrivals in JanuaryMay 2024 with about 1.2 million visitor arrivals, around of the January-May 2019 levels.
  2024 年 1 月，中国重新成为游客入境的主要客源市场，约有 120 万游客入境，约为 2019 年 1 月至 5 月的水平。
• Visitor arrivals from Indonesia and India will also increase as they came in below prepandemic levels in the same period.
  来自印度尼西亚和印度的游客人数也将增加，因为他们在同一时期低于大流行前的水平。
• Ongoing marketing efforts and fresh partnerships by Singapore Tourism Board (STB) will continue to boost global interest in the city as a premier tourism and events destination. In April 2024, STB revealed collaborations with Indian partners, namely online travel agency MakeMyTrip, fintech firm PhonePe and designer Rahul Mishra, to boost the number of Indian tourists.
  新加坡旅游局（STB）正在进行的营销工作和新的合作伙伴关系将继续提高全球对这座城市作为首要旅游和活动目的地的兴趣。2024 年 4 月，新加坡旅游局宣布与印度合作伙伴合作，即在线旅行社 MakeMyTrip、金融科技公司 PhonePe 和设计师 Rahul Mishra，以增加印度游客的数量。

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

CAPITAL MARKETS 资本市场

CAPITAL MARKETS  资本市场

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• Total investment volumes rose yoy to b in 1 H 2 O 24 , compared to in 1 H 2 O 23 .
  2 O 24 年上半年总投资额同比上升 至 b ，而 2 3 年 1 H 2 O 2 3 年上半年为 2 。
• Residential continued to dominate, driven by sites sold under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. Activities in the residential enbloc market remain soft due to a gap between buyer and seller expectations
  住宅继续占据主导地位，主要受政府卖地计划出售的用地的推动。由于买卖双方的预期存在差距，住宅整体市场的活动仍然疲软
• Amidst steady fundamentals, investor interest in the retail sector has been rising. Total retail investment volume recorded in 1 H 2 O 24 (up by YTD) has surpassed 2023's full year retail volume
  在基本面稳定的情况下，投资者对零售业的兴趣一直在上升。24 年上半年（ 年初至今）的零售投资总额已超过 2023 年全年零售额
• Supported by expectations of easing interest rates and value-add/redevelopment opportunities amidst flight to quality, total investment sales could reach in 2024 , a yoy increase.
  在利率放宽的预期和增值/重建机会的支持下，2024年投资总额可能 达到同比增长。
• Investors remain keen to deploy capital. Dry powder in APAC has edged higher to US$68.Ob in Q1 2024 from US$67.7b in 2023 more than double of 2014's tally of US
  投资者仍然热衷于部署资本。亚太地区的干火药从 2023 年的 67.7b 美元小幅上涨至 2024 年第一季度的 68.Ob，是 2014 年美国 的两倍多

CAPITAL MARKETS 资本市场

Key Takeaways 关键要点

• The higher-for-longer interest rate environment has incentivized some asset owners such as REITs to divest their non-core assets to deleverage. A recent case in point was the divestment of Mapletree Anson for S by Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT). Institutional investors remain keen on the Singapore market given her stable fundamentals. This dynamic could lift investment volumes in Singapore.
  长期较高的利率环境促使房地产投资信托基金等一些资产所有者剥离其非核心资产以去杠杆化。最近的一个例子是丰树泛亚商业信托（MPACT）将丰树安森剥离为S 。鉴于新加坡市场的基本面稳定，机构投资者仍然热衷于新加坡市场。这种动态可能会提高新加坡的投资量。
• Office assets could see a mild repricing (as net yields remain below borrowing costs), though freehold offices continue to trade at very tight yields.
  写字楼资产可能会出现温和的重新定价（因为净收益率仍低于借贷成本），尽管永久业权写字楼的收益率继续非常低。
• Asset classes such as living (co-living, serviced apartments, hotels) and data centres remain highly sought after due to their favourable long-term prospects.
  生活（共同生活、服务式公寓、酒店）和数据中心等资产类别因其良好的长期前景而备受追捧。
• Retail malls, particularly suburban malls, have seen strong interest given their higher net yields (compared to offices) and rising rents
  零售商场，尤其是郊区购物中心，因其较高的净收益率（与写字楼相比）和租金上涨而受到浓厚的兴趣

TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS 趋势和亮点

CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD 戴德梁行（CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD）

About Cushman Wakefield
关于戴德梁 行

Better never settles 最好永不安定