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Risk Analysis of Debris Flow hazardsin Yanbian Prefecture Based on Information Quantity Method
基于信息量方法的延边州泥石流危险性风险分析

To cite this article: Jinpeng Fang and Hechun Quan 2019 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 300 022051
要引用本文:方金鹏和全鹤春 2019 IOP 会议论文集:地球与环境科学 300 022051

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Risk Analysis of Debris Flow hazardsin Yanbian Prefecture Based on Information Quantity Method
基于信息量方法的延边州泥石流危险性风险分析

Jinpeng Fang, Hechun Quan "
方金鹏,全和春"
School of Yanbian University, Yanji, China
中国延边大学研究院,中国延吉
*Corresponding author e-mail: hcquan@ybu.edu.cn
*通讯作者电子邮件:hcquan@ybu.edu.cn

Abstract 摘要

Taking the Yanbian Prefecture as the study area, this paper selects 8 influencing factors: elevation, slope, slope direction, precipitation, river, lithology, fault and land use. Taking 163 debris flow points as sample data, information quantity method and GIS platform are introduced to calculate the information amount of each influence due to sub classification. The risk assessment and analysis of debris flow were carried out, and the risk assessment and analysis map of debris flow in Yanbian was drawn. The results show that the areas where the debris flow hazard is more dangerous are in good agreement with the historical debris flow, and the accuracy of the methods and factors used in this paper is verified.
本文以延边州为研究区域,选择了海拔、坡度、坡向、降水、河流、岩性、断裂和土地利用等 8 个影响因素。以 163 个泥石流点为样本数据,引入信息量方法和 GIS 平台,计算每个影响因素由于细分分类而产生的信息量。进行了泥石流的风险评估和分析,并绘制了延边泥石流的风险评估和分析图。结果表明,泥石流危险性更高的区域与历史泥石流的情况高度吻合,验证了本文所使用方法和因素的准确性。

1. Introduction 1. 引言

Debris flow is a natural geological phenomenon peculiar to mountain area. It is a special flood with a large amount of solid matter, such as mud sand and stone, formed by precipitation. It broke out suddenly, and lasted for a short time, coming fiercely, with great destructive power. It is extremely harmful to people's lives, property and transportation facilities. Yanbian Prefecture is located in the border between China and Korea. There are many kinds of geological disasters and frequent hazards in the state, which have an important impact on the Geopolitical Security of the country. The evaluation of debris flow susceptibility can effectively reduce the losses caused by debris flow disasters. In recent years, scholars at home and abroad have carried out a great deal of research on the vulnerability assessment of debris flow. The evaluation models of debris flow hazard are evaluated by analytic hierarchy process, regression prediction model and artificial neural network model, but there are some limitations and shortcomings in each method. The physical meaning of the information quantity model is clear, and the evaluation factors can be classified scientifically. Therefore, this paper uses the information quantity model to evaluate the vulnerability of the debris flow disaster in Yanbian Prefecture. On the basis of the field investigation of debris flow in Yanbian, 8 Influence Factors of elevation, slope, slope direction, precipitation, river, stratum lithology, fault and land use are selected, and the GIS based information model is applied to the assessment price of debris flow in Yanbian Prefecture, in order to prevent and control debris flow in this area. The planning provides the basis.
泥石流是一种特有于山区的自然地质现象。它是一种由降水形成的带有大量固体物质(如泥沙和石块)的特殊洪水。泥石流突然爆发,持续时间短,来势凶猛,具有巨大的破坏力。对人们的生命、财产和交通设施造成极大危害。延边州位于中朝边境。该地区存在多种地质灾害,灾害频发,对国家的地缘安全具有重要影响。泥石流易发性评价可以有效减少泥石流灾害造成的损失。近年来,国内外学者对泥石流易损性评估进行了大量研究。泥石流危险评估模型通过层次分析法、回归预测模型和人工神经网络模型进行评估,但每种方法都存在一定的局限性和不足之处。信息量模型的物理意义明确,评估因素可以科学分类。 因此,本文采用信息量模型评估延边州泥石流灾害的脆弱性。在对延边泥石流进行现场调查的基础上,选择了海拔、坡度、坡向、降水、河流、地层岩性、断层和土地利用等 8 个影响因素,并应用基于 GIS 的信息模型对延边州泥石流的评估价格进行评估,以预防和控制该地区的泥石流。规划提供了基础。

2. Information Quantity Model
2. 信息量模型

The information quantity model is a model which uses the concept of information entropy to analyze the susceptibility of various factors to geological hazards. The theoretical basis is information theory, which is an effective method for the prediction and evaluation of regional geological disasters. In terms
信息量模型是一种利用信息熵概念分析各种因素对地质灾害易感性的模型。其理论基础是信息论,是预测和评估区域地质灾害的有效方法。

of debris flow disasters, the reduction of debris flow in the process of debris flow indicates the possibility of debris flow disasters. The greater the amount of information, the greater the possibility of debris flow disasters.
在泥石流灾害的过程中,泥石流的减少表明了泥石流灾害的可能性。信息量越大,泥石流灾害的可能性就越大。
Formula: is information quantity for debris flow caused by influence factors is the probability of occurrence of debris flow under the condition of influencing factors combination is the probability of the occurrence of debris flow; is information quantity fordebris flow caused by under the influence factors .
公式: 是受影响因素引起的泥石流的信息量 是在影响因素组合条件下泥石流发生的概率 是泥石流发生的概率; 是受 影响因素引起的泥石流的信息量
Each factor is calculated separately, and the amount of information provided for the occurrence of debris flow disasters can be estimated by using frequency in actual calculation.
每个因素都单独计算,通过实际计算中的频率可以估计提供给泥石流灾害发生的信息量。
Formula: is the total number of evaluation units in the study area; the total number of units distributed in the area with debris flow disasters; is the number of units containing evaluation factors in the study area; is the number of specific categories debris flow disaster units which belongs to the factors .
公式: 是研究区内评估单元的总数; 是分布在发生泥石流灾害区域的单元总数; 是研究区内包含评估因素 的单元数量; 是属于因素 的特定类别泥石流灾害单元的数量。
After obtaining the information value of each unit under all the influence factors, the total information value in a single evaluation unit can be obtained by summation.
在获得所有影响因素下每个单元的信息值后,可以通过求和获得单个评估单元的总信息值。
Formula: is total amount of information of the unit; is the amount of information of evaluation factors is the total number of selected evaluation factors
公式: 是单元的信息总量; 是评估因素的信息量 是选择的评估因素总数。
The total information value of the evaluation unit is used as a comprehensive index to determine the unit's effect on debris flow: , the unit is beneficial to the formation of debris flow, and the greater the value, the higher the degree of susceptibility; when , the unit is not conducive to the formation of debris flow, and the smaller the value, the lower the degree of susceptibility.
评价单元的总体信息值 被用作确定单元对泥石流的影响的综合指标: ,单元有利于泥石流的形成, 值越大,易感程度越高;当 时,单元不利于泥石流的形成, 值越小,易感程度越低。

3. The Status of the Research Area
3. 研究区的现状

Yanbian Prefecture is located between North latitude , east longitude . Located in the Changbai Mountain area, the mountainous area accounts for of the total area of Yanbian, The climate belongs to the humid monsoon climate in the middle temperate zone. The main features are dry and windy spring, warm and rainy summer, cool autumn and little rain, and long winter cold season. Factors such as extensive mountains, abundant rainfall, windy and large temperature difference in Yanbian area provide favorable conditions for the formation of debris flow. The terrain of the study area is undulating, and the area of mountain and hilly area accounts for about of the study
延边州位于北纬 ,东经 。位于长白山地区,山地面积占延边总面积的 ,气候属于中纬度暖温带湿润季风气候,主要特点是春季干燥多风,夏季温暖多雨,秋季凉爽少雨,冬季寒冷季节长。延边地区广泛的山地、充沛的降水、多风和大温差等因素为泥石流的形成提供了有利条件。研究区地形起伏较大,山地丘陵区面积约占研究区总面积的

area. The range of elevation ranges from to . The slope is mainly between . This terrain and landform is beneficial to the formation of debris flow.
区域。 海拔范围从 。 坡度主要在 之间。 这种地形和地貌有利于泥石流的形成。

4. Vulnerability Assessment of Debris Flow
4. 泥石流易损性评估

4.1. Evaluati Index Status Classification
4.1. 评估指标状态分类

The spatial analysis function of ArcGIS is used to superimpose the distribution relationship between the influence factors and the debris flow hazard points, and the amount of information is calculated and the formation mechanism of the debris flow is analyzed. The state grading diagram of each evaluation factor is made, and the number and proportion of debris flow in each area are counted.
ArcGIS 的空间分析功能用于叠加影响因素与泥石流危险点之间的分布关系,计算信息量并分析泥石流的形成机制。制作每个评价因子的状态分级图,并统计每个区域的泥石流数量和比例。
4.1.1. Altitude. The contour map is used as data source to get raster data of accuracy in the study area. The natural breakpoint grading method in ArcGIS is used to classify and calculate the ratio of debris flow. The debris flow is mainly distributed in the range of . The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 1.
4.1.1. 海拔。等高线图作为数据源,在研究区域获得 精度的栅格数据。使用 ArcGIS 中的自然断点分级方法对泥石流进行分类和计算。泥石流主要分布在 范围内。状态分类图见图 1。
4.1.2. Slope. The contour map is used as data source to get raster data of accuracy in the study area. From 0 degrees, the number of debris flow points is counted by the classification method of internatural breakpoint classification at 5 degrees for step length. By statistical analysis, the debris flow points in the study area are mainly distributed in the range of degrees. The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 2.
4.1.2. 坡度。等高线图作为数据源,在研究区域获得 精度的栅格数据。从 0 度开始,采用 5 度为步长的内然断点分类方法统计泥石流点的数量。经统计分析,研究区域的泥石流点主要分布在 度范围内。状态分类图见图 2。
4.1.3. Slope direction. Based on the DEM data of accuracy, the raster grid is generated by the raster surface tool of ArcGIS spatial analysis. The slope direction can be divided into 10 categories, and the proportion of debris flow under different grading conditions is counted. It can be seen that the debris flow points are mainly distributed in . Slope state classification diagram is shown in Figure 3.
4.1.3. 坡向。基于 精度的 DEM 数据,通过 ArcGIS 空间分析的栅格表面工具生成栅格网格。坡向可分为 10 个类别,并统计不同分级条件下的泥石流比例。可以看到泥石流点主要分布在 。坡态分类图如图 3 所示。
4.1.4. Annual precipitation. The debris flow in the study area is the occurrence of debris flow for many years, so the annual average precipitation is chosen as the index factor. According to the atlas of Jilin's land and resources, the annual precipitation map of the study area was plotted by ARCGIS, and the precipitation in the study area was divided into 4 areas: and . The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 4.
4.1.4. 年降水量。研究区域的泥石流是多年来发生的泥石流,因此选择年平均降水量作为指标因子。根据吉林省地质矿产图集,通过 ARCGIS 绘制了研究区域的年降水量图,将研究区域的降水分为 4 个区域: 。状态分类图如图 4 所示。
4.1.5. River action. The water system of the study area is relatively developed and belongs to the Tumen River Basin. Using the river in the study area as the buffer center, the and buffer zones are analyzed. The results show that there are 112 debris flow points distributed in the range of the river . Therefore, the occurrence of debris flow is closely related to the role of rivers. The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 5
4.1.5. 河流作用。研究区水系相对发育,属图们江流域。以研究区河流为缓冲中心,分析 缓冲区。结果显示,在河流 范围内分布着 112 个泥石流点。因此,泥石流的发生与河流的作用密切相关。状态分类图如图 5 所示。
4.1.6. Fault action. The fault map is made by converting the whole Yanbian fault map to a grid map with ARCGS software. This paper makes the analysis of the three level buffer zones of and , and reclassifying them. Statistical analysis showed that 84 debris flow points were distributed within of the fault. Therefore, the occurrence of debris flow is closely related to the distance fault. The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 6.
4.1.6. 断裂作用。利用 ARCGS 软件将整个延边断裂图转换为网格图制作断裂图。本文对 的三级缓冲区进行分析,并重新分类。统计分析表明,在断裂 范围内分布着 84 个泥石流点。因此,泥石流的发生与距离断裂密切相关。状态分类图如图 6 所示。
4.1.7. Stratigraphic lithology. Based on the geological map of the study area, according to the engineering geological properties of the rock and soil, the rock groups in the study area are divided into 3 categories according to the soft and hard degree: hard rock, hard rock and soft rock, and the stratigraphic lithology classification state diagram is shown in Figure 7.
4.1.7. 地层岩性。根据研究区地质图,根据岩土工程地质性质,将研究区岩石分为硬岩、硬软岩和软岩三类,地层岩性分类状态图如图 7 所示。
4.1.8. Land use. The main types of land use in the study area are forests, residential areas, orchards and so on. In this paper, we use GIS tools to make statistics on each type of area. Forests spread all over Yanbian, accounting for of the total area of Yanbian. The residential area accounts for about of the area of Yanbian. The total area of the orchard Yanbian area is 7%. As an important factor in the occurrence of debris flow, although the proportion of the whole area of Yanbian is very small, this paper also studied it as a type of land use. In this paper, land use is reclassified by GIS and divided into four categories: residential area, orchard, forest and river. The status classification diagram is shown in Figure 8.
4.1.8. 土地利用。研究区主要土地利用类型有森林、居民区、果园等。本文利用 GIS 工具对各类面积进行统计。森林遍布延边各地,占延边总面积的 。居民区占延边面积的约 。果园占延边总面积的 7%。作为泥石流发生的重要因素,虽然在整个延边面积中比例很小,本文也将其作为一种土地利用类型进行研究。本文通过 GIS 对土地利用进行再分类,分为居民区、果园、森林和河流四类。状态分类图如图 8 所示。
Figure 1. Elevation state Classification diagram
图 1. 海拔状态分类图
Figure 4. Annual precipitation state classification diagram
图 4. 年降水状态分类图
Figure 7. Stratigraphic lithology state classification diagram
图 7. 地层岩性状态分类图
Figure 2. Slope state classification diagram
图 2. 坡度状态分类图
Figure 5. River action state classification diagram
图 5. 河流作用状态分类图
Figure 8. Land use state classification diagram
图 8. 土地利用状态分类图
Figure 3. Slope state classification diagram
图 3. 坡度状态分类图
Figure 6. Fault action state classification diagram
图 6. 故障动作状态分类图
Figure 9. Final easily prone partition map
图 9. 最终易受影响的分区图

4.2. Information Calculation and Vnlnerability Assessment
4.2. 信息计算和脆弱性评估

After establishing the evaluation index system, the information quantity of each evaluation index is calculated according to the formula The distribution of debris flow in each category of each factor is
在建立评价指标体系后,根据公式计算每个评价指标的信息量,通过 ArcGIS 中每个评价因子图层的空间分析和相应的泥石流图表获得每个因子类别中泥石流的分布,每个因子类别中泥石流的分布密度即为每个类别的信息量。在每个因子分类下的信息水平见表 1。

obtained by the spatial analysis of each evaluation factor layer and the corresponding debris flow chart in ArcGIS, and the distribution density of the debris flow in each type of each factor is the information amount of each category. The information level under each factor classification is shown in Table 1.
表 1. 每个因子状态的加权信息值
Table 1. Weighted information values of each factor state
表 1. 每个因子状态的加权信息值
index factors 索引因素 hierarchical state 分层状态 Debris flow number 泥石流编号 information conte 信息内容
Altitude 68 0.3638
93 -0.0929
2 -1.9230
slope 100 0.3460
57 -0.2697
6 -1.0762
slope direction 坡度方向 100 0.1586
12 -0.7554
51 0.0117
stratigraphic hard 6 -1.2892
Generally hard 通常较难 51 -0.2970
fragile 106 0.3787
forest 61 -0.8714
land use river 8 -0.7455
residence 94 5.6801
annual precipitation 年降水量 1 -3.6730
73 0.7671
1 -4.1790
88 1.1172
23 0.8079
23 0.7409
Fault action 28 0.2670
89 -0.3017
River action 38 0.3117
24 0.2764
50 0.0696
51 -0.8908
Under the ArcGIS platform, the amount of information calculated under each hierarchical state is assigned to each hierarchical grid, and the information grid layer of 8 evaluation indexes is obtained. According to the formula (4), the total amount of information of all evaluation units in the whole study area can be obtained by adding the ArcGIS grid calculator and adding 8 information grid layers. The total amount of information of all evaluation units in the region is I. The higher the information value is, the more likely the occurrence of debris flow disasters is.
在 ArcGIS 平台下,根据每个分层状态下计算的信息量分配给每个分层网格,得到 8 个评价指标的信息网格图层。根据公式(4),通过 ArcGIS 网格计算器和 8 个信息网格图层的相加,可以得到整个研究区域所有评价单元的总信息量。该区域所有评价单元的总信息量为 I。信息值越高,泥石流灾害发生的可能性就越大。
According to the natural break point method (Natural Break) can be divided into 5 grades, low prone area , lower prone area , middle prone area , higher prone area , high prone area , and the most post prone partition map.Then get the final easily prone partition map. Final easily prone partition map is shown in Figure 9.
根据自然断点法(Natural Break)可分为 5 个等级,低易发区 ,较低易发区 ,中等易发区 ,较高易发区 ,高易发区 ,并得到最终易发分区图。然后得到最终易发分区图。最终易发分区图如图 9 所示。
5 Result Analysis and Accuracy Evaluation
5 结果分析和准确性评估

4.3. Susceptibility Analysis
4.3. 易感性分析

The zoning results of debris flow susceptibility assessment indicate that the high prone area of debris flow in Yanbian Prefecture is mainly located in the central part of Antu county and the central part of Helong city. The structural characteristics of the high prone area are relatively active, and the lithology and quality of formations are poor, which provide abundant solid debris for debris flow. The role of the drainage system also plays an important role in the development of disasters. The closer the drainage line is, the easier the disaster will happen. The high prone areas of debris flow are mainly areas with
泥石流易发区划分结果表明,延边州泥石流高易发区主要分布在安图县中部和和龙市中部。高易发区的构造特征相对活跃,岩性和地层质量较差,为泥石流提供了丰富的固体碎屑。排水系统的作用也在灾害发展中起着重要作用。排水线越近,灾害发生的可能性就越大。泥石流高易发区主要是

strong human activities. Human production, life, farmland reclamation and engineering construction have greatly influenced the natural environment, resulting in the loss of soil and water and the reduction of vegetation coverage, which provide favorable conditions for the formation and development of debris flow. of the study area is in the high prone area and the high prone area, accounting for of the low incidence areas, indicating that most areas are located in the low debris flow prone areas.
人类活动强烈。人类生产、生活、农田开垦和工程建设对自然环境产生了极大影响,导致土壤和水的流失以及植被覆盖的减少,为泥石流的形成和发展提供了有利条件。研究区域 位于高易发区和高发区,占 的低发区域,表明大多数地区位于低泥石流易发区。

4.4. SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATION
4.4. 易发性评价

The number of debris flow, the number of grids, the ratio of debris flow to the grid ratio in each vulnerable area were counted. According to Table 2, of the debris flow disaster points are located in high prone area and high prone area. In the process of easy to change from low to high, the number of grid is from large to small, and the density of the disaster points increases, and the ratio of debris flow is increasing in the process of low to high. At the same time, the actual rate of debris flow increases. It is in accordance with the principle of grade division.
统计了每个易发区域的泥石流数量、网格数量、泥石流占网格比例。根据表 2, 的泥石流灾害点位于高易发区和高发区。在易发性由低到高易变过程中,网格数量由多到少,灾害点密度增加,泥石流比例在由低到高的过程中逐渐增加。同时,实际泥石流率也在增加。符合分级原则。

5. Conclusion 5. 结论

The vulnerability assessment index system of debris flow in Yanbian Prefecture was established by selecting 8 factors. Based on GIS and information quantity model, the vulnerability of debris flow disaster in Yanbian Prefecture was analyzed and evaluated. According to the evaluation results and actual situation, the evaluation results are good.
延边州泥石流脆弱性评价指标体系选取 8 个因子建立,基于 GIS 和信息量模型对延边州泥石流灾害脆弱性进行分析评价。根据评价结果与实际情况,评价结果良好。
The high prone area of debris flow is mainly a region with strong human activity. The land use type is agricultural land and residential area. At the same time, the debris flow disaster is easy to occur in the weak lithology area, and the tectonic action and the function of water system have an important influence on the development of the disaster. The main manifestation is the distance from the structure line and the water system line. The more easy the disaster is.
泥石流高发区主要为人类活动强烈的区域,土地利用类型为农田和居民区。同时,泥石流灾害易发生在岩性薄弱区,构造作用和水系功能对灾害发展有重要影响,主要表现为距离构造线和水系线越近,灾害越易发生。
High debris prone areas in Yanbian Prefecture are mainly located in the central part of Antu County, Helong city and Dunhua city.
延边朝鲜族自治州高碎屑易发区主要位于安图县、和龙市和敦化市的中部。

Acknowledgments 致谢

This work was financially supported by Jilin Provincial Education Department "Thirteen-Five" Science and technology research and planning project
本工作得到吉林省教育厅“十三五”科技研究规划项目的财政支持。

References 参考文献

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