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US Daily: Shifting to a September Cut and a Lower Terminal Rate

We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls.

We Now Expect Three 25bp Rate Cuts in September, October, and December, and Two More Cuts in 2026 to a Terminal Rate of 3-3.25% (vs. 3.5-3.75% Previously)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


30 Jun 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle and others
 

Also read: USA: Powell Reiterates Wait-and-See Approach to Policy, Does Not Comment on July Cut

Global Markets Daily: Cross-Asset Implications If the Fed Eases More Quickly

Since late April, the market has upgraded its growth views while pricing a more dovish Fed. The tighter policy shock that the market priced in early April has reversed by less than the negative growth shock, although the market has begun in recent days to push more sharply towards pricing more Fed easing. Strong labor market data and higher inflation prints over the summer would now likely pose a challenge to the easing the market has priced, but another month or two of friendlier inflation news could create more room for the market to push further towards pricing earlier and deeper easing, even without a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. Conditional on that scenario, what should investors do? We illustrate here what various versions of the market moving towards pricing more Fed easing might look like across assets.

30 Jun 2025 | Research | Economics - Vickie Chang

The S&P 500 rallied by 3% this week to reach a new all-time high. Notably, the S&P 500 rally has been defined by extremely narrow breadth that ranks as one of the most concentrated surges experienced during the past few decades. We forecast the S&P 500 will return +5% over the next 12 months to reach 6500.

28 Jun 2025 | 4:44am| 22pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
The market rally since the April lows has been driven by a sharp rotation into growth stocks, reflected in both index (particularly within large-caps) and factor level performance. While this has come amidst receding rec...
2 Jul 2025 | 9:13am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Deep Mehta and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

China Healthcare Service & Devices: CDMO 2Q order momentum continued; recovery for Medtech & Services more likely in 2H25

We hosted 54 China Healthcare companies in-person in Hong Kong (June 24-27), among which were CDMO/CRO (e.g., WuXi AppTec, Asymchem, Pharmaron, WuXi XDC, Tigermed, Genscript, Bora Pharma), MedTech (Weigao, AK Medical, Kangji, Angelalign, Jiangsu Yuyue, and Lepu), and Service names (Hygiea, Gushengtang, Jinxin, Aier).

1 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity Research - Chris Pan, Ziyi Chen and others


China Healthcare: Drug policy pivoting towards innovation continues; NHSA to introduce commercial insurance novel drug list to NRDL

Roll-out of long-anticipated policy framework: We note positively that China’s domestic policy for drug innovation continues to evolve with new rules panning out - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission (NHC) jointly announced a new policy framework to further promote drug innovation in China, with new rules addressing the critical payor / access aspect of drug innovation.

1 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity Research - Ziyi Chen and others

This inaugural conference will bring together thought leaders and senior executives from the most important companies listed in Asia Pacific to present their corporate strategy, current trends and challenges. Running in parallel with the main presentations, companies will be hosting one-on-one and small group meetings.

RATING AND LIST CHANGES
US Conviction List - Directors' Cut: July 2025 Update
1 Jul 2025 | 5:00pm| 26pg| Research | Equity-Steven Kron and others
±CL
Textron Inc. (TXT): Downgrade to Neutral as stock lacks value creating change agents and catalysts
1 Jul 2025 | 4:58pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Noah Poponak, CFA and others
Latest research
US Autos & Industrial Tech: June US auto SAAR was in the mid 15 mn range and above consensus
2 Jul 2025 | 10:35am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and others
Americas Clean Energy: Clean energy updates to Senate bill released today during vote-a-rama
2 Jul 2025 | 9:58am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and others
US Idea Radar: Seeking Dependable Growth and Inflections
2 Jul 2025 | 9:13am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Deep Mehta and others
Latin America Telecom Services: Brazil Market Data for May: Strong TIMB Postpaid, VIV Fiber
2 Jul 2025 | 8:36am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Vitor Tomita, CFA and others

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UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC and Equities
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We are inviting management and IR teams from CEEMEA companies to participate in one-on-one and small group meetings. The event format will include...Read more
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2 Jul 2025 | 9am NY | 2pm LN | 9pm HK
Join us to discuss what we learned from 2025 CCAR results, how the Fed is changing the testing requirements, just how much capital America’s biggest...Read more
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Global Investment Research
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A year ago we wrote about the imbalance of China's capacity, the outlook for its cyclical inflections and structural consolidation, leveraging our...Read more
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