Equity Research

Webinar: China in Transition: China’s Capacity - The Delayed Inflection
3 July @ 4pm HKT | REGISTER
US Daily: Shifting to a September Cut and a Lower Terminal Rate
We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls.
We Now Expect Three 25bp Rate Cuts in September, October, and December, and Two More Cuts in 2026 to a Terminal Rate of 3-3.25% (vs. 3.5-3.75% Previously)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
30 Jun 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle and others
Also read: USA: Powell Reiterates Wait-and-See Approach to Policy, Does Not Comment on July Cut
Global Markets Daily: Cross-Asset Implications If the Fed Eases More Quickly
Since late April, the market has upgraded its growth views while pricing a more dovish Fed. The tighter policy shock that the market priced in early April has reversed by less than the negative growth shock, although the market has begun in recent days to push more sharply towards pricing more Fed easing. Strong labor market data and higher inflation prints over the summer would now likely pose a challenge to the easing the market has priced, but another month or two of friendlier inflation news could create more room for the market to push further towards pricing earlier and deeper easing, even without a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. Conditional on that scenario, what should investors do? We illustrate here what various versions of the market moving towards pricing more Fed easing might look like across assets.
30 Jun 2025 | Research | Economics - Vickie Chang
The S&P 500 rallied by 3% this week to reach a new all-time high. Notably, the S&P 500 rally has been defined by extremely narrow breadth that ranks as one of the most concentrated surges experienced during the past few decades. We forecast the S&P 500 will return +5% over the next 12 months to reach 6500.
US Conviction List - Directors' Cut
NEW ADDITIONS: Duke Energy, Huntington Ingalls and Kontoor Brands
Read the report | Listen to the podcast
European Conviction List - Directors' Cut
NEW ADDITIONS: ING Groep NV, LVMH and Atlas Copco
We hosted 54 China Healthcare companies in-person in Hong Kong (June 24-27), among which were CDMO/CRO (e.g., WuXi AppTec, Asymchem, Pharmaron, WuXi XDC, Tigermed, Genscript, Bora Pharma), MedTech (Weigao, AK Medical, Kangji, Angelalign, Jiangsu Yuyue, and Lepu), and Service names (Hygiea, Gushengtang, Jinxin, Aier).
1 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity Research - Chris Pan, Ziyi Chen and others
Roll-out of long-anticipated policy framework: We note positively that China’s domestic policy for drug innovation continues to evolve with new rules panning out - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission (NHC) jointly announced a new policy framework to further promote drug innovation in China, with new rules addressing the critical payor / access aspect of drug innovation.
1 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity Research - Ziyi Chen and others

- Company HighlightsSamsung Electronics (005930.KS): Expect a 2Q25 OP miss from weaker HBM/foundry, but the setup into 3Q25 becoming more favorable; Buy1 Jul 2025 | 8:13pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and othersSBI Cards & Payment Services Ltd. (SBIC.BO): Balanced risk-reward post sharp valuations re-rating; Downgrade to Neutral1 Jul 2025 | 8:08pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Rahul Jain and othersIndusInd Bank (INBK.BO): Value Trap vs. Value Stock a key debate; Structurally Lower ROEs; Downgrade to Sell1 Jul 2025 | 7:38pm| 21pg| Research | Equity-Rahul Jain and othersOmada Health (OMDA): Focus on Clinical Outcomes Drives Sustained Growth Outlook; Initiate at Buy1 Jul 2025 | 12:06pm| 27pg| Research | Equity-David Roman and othersNuvalent Inc. (NUVL): Best-in-class ALK/ROS1 + Potential HER2 Near-term Upside; Move to Buy with $105 PT1 Jul 2025 | 4:01am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Richard Law, Ph.D. and othersOshkosh Corp. (OSK): Upgrade to Buy amid inflecting Machinery supply, embedded tariff risks, and improving Transport segment margins1 Jul 2025 | 6:44am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsAmericas Banks: 2025 CCAR: Interim SCBs broadly in line with expectations although dividend increases are a bright spot2 Jul 2025 | 9:48am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and othersAmericas Capital Markets: 2Q Preview: Balancing act between 2H25 optimism against expanded multiples2 Jul 2025 | 4:11am| 55pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and othersAmericas Clean Energy: Clean energy updates to Senate bill released today during vote-a-rama2 Jul 2025 | 9:58am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: Ridesharing & Delivery Q2'25 Preview: Analyzing the Industry Debates & Estimates2 Jul 2025 | 4:20am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersAmericas Banks: 2Q25 Preview: Navigating a relatively better outlook, despite uncertainty, with focus on reform1 Jul 2025 | 2:01pm| 47pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and othersAmericas Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P: Staying Selective on Large Cap Diversified E&Ps Amid Commodity Softness; OVV to Buy, CTRA Down to Neutral1 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGOAL Kickstart: Dovish and De-escalation - Markets embrace a Goldilocks Backdrop1 Jul 2025 | 5:11am| 31pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and othersAsia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update1 Jul 2025 | 5:26pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and othersGOAL Risk Keeper: Hedging stagflation and reflation tails into H226 Jun 2025 | 12:01pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (30-Jun-25)30 Jun 2025 | 9:55pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (28-Jun-2025)28 Jun 2025 | 10:23pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (26-Jun-2025)26 Jun 2025 | 11:27pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
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