Bottom line: 底线：
China's Q2 GDP growth came in well below market expectations, while June activity data were mixed. This set of data highlighted the continued, significant cross-sector divergences in the economy -- strong exports and manufacturing activity, relatively stable services consumption (in volume terms), and still-depressed property activity. Industrial production growth remained solid in June, as the support from strong export growth has somewhat offset the distortions from the number of working days. Fixed asset investment growth rose slightly, mainly driven by the improvement in infrastructure investment, despite still-depressed property investment and adverse weather conditions in South China. By comparison, growth in retail sales fell notably and missed expectations in June, in line with sluggish tourism revenue growth during the Dragon Boat Festival and the soft 618 Online Shopping Festival. Despite the recent round of housing easing, property-related activity remained depressed in June. Incorporating Q2 GDP outturns and NBS revisions to historical sequential GDP growth estimates mechanically lowers our 2024 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.0% previously, but lifts our 2025 growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.2%. To counteract weak domestic demand, we believe more policy easing is necessary through the remainder of this year, especially on the fiscal and housing fronts. Relative to the Third Plenum, we view the July Politburo meeting as a more likely window for additional counter-cyclical easing rhetoric and measures.
中国第二季度 GDP 增长远低于市场预期，而 6 月份的活动数据则呈现出了不同的情况。这组数据突显了经济中持续存在的重大跨部门差异——强劲的出口和制造业活动，相对稳定的服务消费（以量计），以及仍然低迷的房地产活动。6 月份工业生产增长保持稳健，由于强劲的出口增长支撑了一定程度上抵消了工作日数量的扭曲。固定资产投资增长略有上升，主要受到基础设施投资改善的推动，尽管房地产投资仍然低迷，而华南地区的恶劣天气条件也对此造成了不利影响。相比之下，6 月份零售销售增长明显下降，未达预期，与端午节旅游收入增长乏力以及 618 网购节有关。尽管最近进行了一轮房地产放松政策，但房地产相关活动在 6 月仍然低迷。根据第二季度 GDP 数据和国家统计局对历史顺序 GDP 增长估计的修订，我们机械地将 2024 年全年 GDP 增长预测从 5%下调至 4.9%。0％以前，但我们将 2025 年的增长预测从 4.2％上调至 4.3％。为了抵消国内需求疲弱，我们认为今年余下时间需要更多的政策宽松，特别是在财政和房地产方面。相对于第三次全会，我们认为 7 月政治局会议更有可能成为额外的逆周期宽松言论和措施的窗口。
Asia-MAP scores: 亚洲-MAP 分数:
GDP: -10 (5, -2)
Industrial production: 0 (5, 0)
工业生产：0（5，0）
Fixed asset investment: 0 (2, 0)
固定资产投资：0（2，0）
Retail sales: -2 (1, -2)
零售销售：-2（1，-2）
Key numbers: 关键数字：
GDP: +4.7% yoy in Q2 (GS and Bloomberg consensus: +5.1% yoy), +0.7% quarter-over-quarter sa non-annualized, based on the NBS estimate. Q1: +5.3% yoy, +1.5% quarter-over-quarter sa non-annualized (downwardly revised from +1.6% quarter-over-quarter sa non-annualized previously).
国内生产总值：根据国家统计局的估计，第二季度同比增长 4.7%（高盛和彭博共识：同比增长 5.1%），环比增长 0.7%，非年化计算。第一季度同比增长 5.3%，环比增长 1.5%（与之前的 1.6%相比，环比增长有所下调）。
Industrial production (IP): +5.3% yoy in June (GS: +4.5% yoy; consensus: +5.0% yoy), vs. +5.6% yoy in May. Note sequential figures are highly sensitive to the specific seasonal adjustment methodology (NBS estimates: +0.42% mom sa non-annualized in June, vs. +0.26% mom sa non-annualized in May; GS estimates: +0.5% mom sa non-annualized in June, vs. -0.1% mom sa non-annualized in May).
工业生产（IP）：6 月同比增长 5.3％（高盛：6 月同比增长 4.5％；共识：6 月同比增长 5.0％），而 5 月同比增长 5.6％。请注意，顺序数据对特定季节调整方法非常敏感（国家统计局估计：6 月环比增长 0.42％，而 5 月环比增长 0.26％；高盛估计：6 月环比增长 0.5％，而 5 月环比下降 0.1％）。
Fixed asset investment (FAI): +3.9% ytd yoy in June (GS: +3.8% ytd yoy; consensus: +3.9% ytd yoy), vs. +4.0% ytd yoy in May; June single-month by GS estimates: +3.7% yoy, vs. +3.5% yoy in May (sequential growth by GS estimates: +0.1% mom sa non-annualized in June, vs. -0.9% mom sa non-annualized in May).
固定资产投资（FAI）：6 月同比累计增长+3.9%（高盛：+3.8%；市场共识：+3.9%），低于 5 月的+4.0%；根据高盛估计，6 月单月同比增长+3.7%，高于 5 月的+3.5%（高盛估计的环比增长：6 月+0.1%，5 月-0.9%）。
Retail sales: +2.0% yoy in June (GS: +3.0% yoy; consensus: +3.4% yoy), vs. +3.7% yoy in May (sequential growth by GS estimates: -1.8% mom sa non-annualized in June, vs. +1.0% mom sa non-annualized in May).
零售销售：6 月同比增长 2.0%（高盛：同比增长 3.0%；共识：同比增长 3.4%），而 5 月同比增长 3.7%（根据高盛估计，6 月非年化环比增长-1.8%，而 5 月非年化环比增长 1.0%）。
Services industry output index: +4.7% yoy in June, vs. +4.8% yoy in May (sequential growth by GS estimates: -0.6% mom sa non-annualized in June, vs. +1.1% mom sa non-annualized in May).
服务业产出指数：6 月同比增长 4.7％，5 月同比增长 4.8％（根据高盛估计的环比增长：6 月非年化季调后-0.6％，5 月非年化季调后+1.1％）。
Surveyed unemployment rates:
调查失业率：
Nationwide: 5.0% in June, vs. 5.0% in May.
全国：6 月为 5.0%，与 5 月持平。
31 major cities: 4.9% in June, vs. 4.9% in May.
31 个主要城市：6 月为 4.9%，与 5 月的 4.9%相同。
Property-related activity data:
与财产相关的活动数据：
Floor space sold: -14.7% yoy in June, vs. -20.7% yoy in May (value of sales: -14.1% yoy in June, vs. -26.3% yoy in May).
销售面积：6 月同比下降 14.7%，而 5 月为-20.7%（销售额：6 月同比下降 14.1%，而 5 月为-26.3%）。
Floor area under construction: -12.0% yoy in June, vs. -11.6% yoy in May.
六月建筑施工面积同比下降 12.0%，而五月同比下降 11.6%。
New home starts: -21.8% yoy in June, vs. -22.8% yoy in May.
6 月新屋开工：同比下降 21.8%，而 5 月同比下降 22.8%。
New home completions: -29.5% yoy in June, vs. -18.4% yoy in May.
六月份新房竣工数量同比下降 29.5%，而五月份同比下降 18.4%。
Real estate investment: -10.1% yoy in June, vs. -11.0% yoy in May.
房地产投资：6 月同比下降 10.1%，而 5 月同比下降 11.0%。
Main points 主要观点
1. Based on NBS estimates, China's real GDP gained 0.7% qoq sa non-annualized in Q2 (GS forecast: +0.4% qoq sa non-annualized; consensus: +0.9% qoq sa non-annualized), reflecting slower sequential growth momentum than in Q1 (+1.5% qoq sa non-annualized after revisions). On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth declined to a weaker-than-expected +4.7% in Q1 (GS and consensus: +5.1% yoy) from +5.3% in Q1, despite a low base (when the economy faced strong headwinds from industrial destocking in the prior-year Q2). The NBS's latest estimates for China's sequential GDP growth is 1.8%, 0.8%, 1.5% and 1.2% qoq sa non-annualized, respectively for Q1-Q4 2023 (vs. 1.8%, 0.5%, 1.8% and 1.2% qoq sa non-annualized, previously). Although these revisions appear a common practice as the magnitude of revisions was within the historical range, it may have an impact on year-on-year GDP growth for the quarters ahead. In addition, nominal GDP growth edged down to +4.0% yoy in Q2 from +4.2% yoy in Q1, reflecting a still-negative GDP deflator amid muted CPI inflation and continued PPI deflation.
根据国家统计局的估计，中国实际国内生产总值在第二季度环比增长了 0.7%（高盛预测：+0.4%；共识：+0.9%），显示出比第一季度更慢的顺序增长势头（在修订后为+1.5%）。从同比增长来看，国内生产总值增速在第一季度下降至 4.7%（高盛和共识：+5.1%），而第一季度为 5.3%，尽管基数较低（经济在去年第二季度面临工业去库存的强劲逆风）。国家统计局对中国 2023 年第一至第四季度的顺序国内生产总值增长的最新估计分别为 1.8%、0.8%、1.5%和 1.2%（之前为 1.8%、0.5%、1.8%和 1.2%）。尽管这些修订在历史范围内，看起来是一种常见做法，但可能会对未来几个季度的同比国内生产总值增长产生影响。此外，名义国内生产总值增速从第一季度的 4.2%下降至第二季度的 4.0%，反映出尽管消费者价格指数通胀和生产者价格指数通缩，GDP 平减率仍为负值。
2. Industrial production (IP) growth remained solid at +5.3% yoy in June (vs. +5.6% yoy in May), slightly above market expectations (GS forecast: +4.5% yoy; consensus: +5.0% yoy), as the support from strong export growth somewhat offset the distortions from the number of working days.[1] On a sequential basis after seasonal adjustments, we estimate IP gained 0.5% mom non-annualized in June, vs. -0.1% mom non-annualized in May (Exhibit 1). By industry, the slight deceleration in year-on-year IP growth from May to June was led by slower output growth in computer and chemicals manufacturing industries (Exhibit 2). Among major industrial products, year-on-year growth in cement and crude steel output dropped to -10.7% and +0.2%, respectively, in June from -8.2% and +2.7% in May. Power generation growth remained soft at 2.3% yoy in June, unchanged from May. Automobile output growth edged up to +1.8% yoy in June from +1.3% yoy in May, and smartphone output growth rose modestly to +6.4% yoy from +4.0% yoy.
2. 工业生产（IP）增长在 6 月保持稳健，同比增长 5.3%（相比 5 月的 5.6%），略高于市场预期（高盛预测：同比增长 4.5%；共识：同比增长 5.0%），由于强劲出口增长的支撑在一定程度上抵消了工作日数量的扭曲。 [1] 在季节调整后的顺序基础上，我们估计 6 月 IP 在非年化基础上增长了 0.5%，而 5 月为-0.1%（附件 1）。按行业划分，从 5 月到 6 月，同比 IP 增长略微放缓，主要是由于计算机和化工制造业产出增长放缓（附件 2）。在主要工业产品中，水泥和原钢产量的同比增长分别从 5 月的-8.2%和+2.7%下降到 6 月的-10.7%和+0.2%。发电量增长在 6 月保持在 2.3%的同比增长，与 5 月持平。汽车产量增长在 6 月从 5 月的+1.3%同比增长到+1.8%，智能手机产量增长从 5 月的+4.0%同比增长到+6.4%。
3. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth rose slightly to +3.7% yoy in June on a single-month basis by our estimates from +3.5% yoy in May, in line with market expectations. June's improvement in FAI growth was led by faster infrastructure investment, where growth rose significantly to +8.0% yoy in June from +3.7% yoy in May (Exhibit 3). Manufacturing investment growth stayed elevated at +9.3% yoy in June (vs. +9.4% yoy in May), while property investment growth remained depressed at -10.1% yoy (vs. -11.0% yoy in May). "Other" (mostly services and agriculture-related sectors) investment growth slumped to -6.8% yoy in June from +6.4% yoy in May. We believe adverse weather conditions in South China may have constrained construction activity in May-June, but this drag should be temporary.
3. 据我们估计，6 月份固定资产投资（FAI）增长率按年计算略有上升，从 5 月份的+3.5% yoy 上升到+3.7% yoy，符合市场预期。6 月份 FAI 增长的改善主要是由基础设施投资加快引领的，基础设施投资增长率从 5 月份的+3.7% yoy 上升到 6 月份的+8.0% yoy（见附件 3）。制造业投资增长率在 6 月份保持在较高水平，为+9.3% yoy（而 5 月份为+9.4% yoy），而房地产投资增长率仍然低迷，为-10.1% yoy（而 5 月份为-11.0% yoy）。"其他"（主要是服务和农业相关领域）投资增长率从 5 月份的+6.4% yoy 下降至 6 月份的-6.8% yoy。我们认为南方地区的恶劣天气可能在 5 月至 6 月期间限制了建筑活动，但这种拖累应该是暂时的。
4. Nominal retail sales growth declined notably to +2.0% yoy in June from +3.7% yoy in May, missing market expectations, as some demand was frontloaded to May on the back of an earlier 618 Online Shopping Festival this year vs. last year. On a sequential basis, we estimate retail sales contracted 1.8% mom sa non-annualized in June (vs. +1.0% mom sa non-annualized in May). Year-on-year growth in goods sales slowed to +1.5% in June from +3.6% in May, led mainly by online goods sales growth which slumped to -1.4% yoy from +12.8% yoy. That said, offline goods sales growth rose to +2.9% yoy in June from -0.4% yoy in May. Year-on-year growth in restaurant sales edged up to +5.4% in June from +5.0% in May, while automobile sales growth fell to -6.2% yoy from -4.4% yoy in May. Property-related goods sales growth broadly weakened in June -- year-on-year growth in furniture and home appliance sales dropped significantly to +1.1% and -7.6%, respectively, in June from +4.8% and +12.9% in May, while construction materials sales growth remained largely flat at -4.4% yoy in June (vs. -4.5% yoy in May).
4. 名义零售销售增长在 6 月从 5 月的+3.7% yoy 明显下降至+2.0% yoy，未达到市场预期，因为今年相对去年提前了 618 网购节，导致部分需求在 5 月集中释放。按季度计算，我们估计 6 月零售销售环比非年化下降了 1.8% mom sa（而 5 月为+1.0% mom sa 非年化）。6 月商品销售同比增长放缓至+1.5%，而 5 月为+3.6%，主要是由于在线商品销售增长大幅下滑至-1.4% yoy，而 5 月为+12.8% yoy。尽管如此，线下商品销售增长从 5 月的-0.4% yoy 上升至 6 月的+2.9% yoy。餐饮销售同比增长从 5 月的+5.0% 上升至 6 月的+5.4%，而汽车销售增长从 5 月的-4.4% 下降至 6 月的-6.2% yoy。6 月房地产相关商品销售增长普遍疲软--家具和家电销售同比增长分别从 5 月的+4.8% 和+12.9% 显著下降至 6 月的+1.1% 和-7.6%，而建筑材料销售增长在 6 月基本持平，同比为-4.4%（而 5 月为-4.5% yoy）。
5. The Services Industry Output Index, which is on a real basis and tracks tertiary GDP growth closely (55% of China's economy as of 2023) fared better than retail sales growth and remained largely stable at +4.7% yoy in June (vs. +4.8% yoy in May). In sequential terms, we estimate the Services Industry Output Index declined by 0.6% mom sa non-annualized in June (vs. +1.1% mom sa non-annualized in May).
5. 服务业产出指数是以实际基础进行跟踪的，与第三产业 GDP 增长密切相关（截至 2023 年占中国经济的 55%），在 6 月份表现优于零售销售增长，保持在+4.7%的年同比增长率上基本稳定（而 5 月份为+4.8%的年同比增长率）。按季度计算，我们估计服务业产出指数在 6 月份环比下降了 0.6%（与 5 月份的+1.1%相比）。
6. Despite the previous round of housing easing measures, most property-related activity remained depressed in June. The year-on-year contraction in property sales narrowed to -14.7% and -14.1% in volume and value terms, respectively, in June from -20.7% yoy and -26.3% yoy in May, thanks mainly to favorable base effects (Exhibit 4). New home starts growth remained sluggish at -21.8% in June from -22.8% in May, while the year-on-year contraction in new home completions widened significantly to -29.5% from -18.4%. Growth in floor space under construction declined to -12.0% yoy in June from -11.6% yoy in May. We note property activity has probably undershot underlying demographic demand amid the ongoing property downturn, which requires further easing efforts to achieve the L-shaped path we expect.
尽管之前一轮的房地产放松措施，但大部分与房地产相关的活动在 6 月仍然保持低迷。6 月份房地产销售的同比收缩幅度从 5 月的-20.7%和-26.3%分别缩小至-14.7%和-14.1%，主要得益于有利的基数效应。6 月份新房开工增长仍然疲弱，为-21.8%，而 5 月份为-22.8%；而新房竣工的同比收缩幅度从-18.4%扩大至-29.5%。6 月份在建筑中的楼面面积增长率从 5 月的-11.6%同比下降至-12.0%。我们注意到，房地产活动可能已经低于持续的房地产低迷中的基本人口需求，这需要进一步的放松措施来实现我们预期的 L 型路径。
7. Labor market statistics remained largely stable. The nationwide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) and the 31-city metric remained unchanged from May at 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively, in June (Exhibit 5). The unemployment rate for migrant workers (without local Hukou) edged up to 4.8% in June from 4.7% in May. After the NBS definition revisions (by excluding students in schools) in January, the release of the 16-24 age group unemployment rate has been delayed by around three days vs. general labor market statistics, and the May print available now (14.2%) was below the April level (14.7%) and Q1 average (15.1%). We maintain our view that some labor market pressures for the younger generation could be structural and persistent.
7. 劳动力市场统计数据基本稳定。全国失业率（不考虑季节因素）和 31 个城市的指标在 6 月保持不变，分别为 5.0%和 4.9%（见附件 5）。6 月份农民工（无本地户口）的失业率从 5 月的 4.7%上升至 4.8%。自 1 月份国家统计局对失业率定义进行修订（排除在校学生）以来，16-24 岁年龄组失业率的发布时间比一般劳动力市场统计数据延迟了大约三天，而现在 5 月份的数据（14.2%）低于 4 月份的水平（14.7%）和第一季度的平均水平（15.1%）。我们认为，年轻一代的一些劳动力市场压力可能是结构性的并且持久存在。
8. Q2 GDP data, June activity data and our high-frequency trackers for early July suggest domestic demand remained sluggish despite strong exports. We continue to expect sequential GDP growth to rebound in Q3 from Q2, thanks to likely less destocking pressure and more fiscal policy support (amid the ongoing acceleration of government bond issuance). Incorporating Q2 GDP data and NBS revisions to historical sequential GDP growth estimates -- without any change to our sequential growth forecasts for the quarters ahead -- mechanically lowers our 2024 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.0% previously, but lifts our 2025 growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.2% previously.
8. 第二季度 GDP 数据、6 月活动数据以及我们 7 月初的高频追踪数据显示，尽管出口强劲，但国内需求仍然疲软。我们预计，由于可能减少了库存压力并获得更多财政政策支持（在政府债券发行持续加速的背景下），第三季度的 GDP 增长将从第二季度反弹。结合第二季度 GDP 数据和国家统计局对历史顺序 GDP 增长估计的修订，我们的 2024 年全年 GDP 增长预测从之前的 5.0%机械地下调至 4.9%，但将我们的 2025 年增长预测从之前的 4.2%提高至 4.3%。
9. On policies, although the latest round of housing easing appears insufficient to stabilize the property sector, we expect more to come through the remainder of this year, especially on mitigating funding and implementation bottlenecks for housing destocking. Given the slow pace of government bond issuance in H1 this year, we expect the likely increase in fiscal support in H2 to lift sequential growth and ensure the full-year “around 5%” real GDP growth target is reached. Considering the weak credit data in Q2 and constraints from continued USD strength and bank net interest margins for monetary easing, we expect one 25bp RRR cut in Q3 and one 10bp policy rate cut in Q4. Our recent client interactions suggest the ongoing Third Plenum and mid-year Politburo meeting around end-July as potential macro catalysts ahead. Relative to the Third Plenum, we view the July Politburo meeting as a more likely window for additional counter-cyclical easing rhetoric and measures to boost domestic demand.
9. 在政策方面，尽管最新一轮的房地产放松政策似乎不足以稳定房地产市场，但我们预计在今年剩下的时间里会有更多的政策出台，特别是在缓解房地产去库存的资金和执行瓶颈方面。考虑到今年上半年政府债券发行步伐缓慢，我们预计下半年财政支持可能增加，以提振季度增长并确保全年“大约 5%”的实际 GDP 增长目标得以实现。鉴于第二季度信贷数据疲弱，以及继续升值的美元和银行净利差对货币宽松的限制，我们预计第三季度将进行一次 25 个基点的存款准备金率下调，第四季度将进行一次 10 个基点的政策利率下调。我们最近与客户的互动表明，七月底左右进行的中央全会和年中政治局会议可能成为宏观刺激的潜在催化剂。相对于中央全会，我们认为七月政治局会议更有可能成为额外的逆周期宽松言论和措施以提振国内需求的窗口。
Sequential IP growth numbers refer to GS estimates.
顺序 IP 增长数字指的是高盛的估计。
Source: NBS, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：NBS，CEIC，高盛全球投资研究
Source: CEIC, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：CEIC，Goldman Sachs 全球投资研究编制的数据
We use the Jan-Feb average to smooth out Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday-related distortions during Jan-Feb. The NBS resumed the release of unemployment rate data for the 16-24 age group which was revised in January 2024 based on a narrowed definition (excluding students in schools).
我们使用 1 月至 2 月的平均值来平滑 1 月至 2 月期间与春节假期相关的扭曲。国家统计局恢复了 16-24 岁年龄组失业率数据的发布，该数据是基于 2024 年 1 月修订的较窄定义（不包括在校学生）。
Source: WIND, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：高盛全球投资研究编制的数据
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