US economic data over the past two weeks calmed nerves about a possible recession – initially brought about by a triggering of the Sahm Rule and a partial unwind of yen carry trades. Defensive positioning offended instead of pleased, but we stay in UST curve steepeners into supply/Jackson Hole.

Our key views and top trades in one place. Macro Data – Neither Boom Nor BustA soft landing where US growth slows but not stops is our base case. The Fed starts to cut in September because of disinflation, and not because of an imminent recession. Elsewhere, we expect European growth to hit a soft patch in 2H24, while reactive policies in China but limited economic rebalancing mean deflationa...

In this podcast series, co-hosts Martin Tobias and Alexandra Maier discuss the most important highlights of the week just past, and talk about the most important events of the week to come.

Thermal coal's recent bounce on strong summer demand stands apart from ongoing weakness in met and iron ore. Mounting steel market headwinds could weigh on the iron ore balance for longer, despite supply side support, while China's supply growth brings new risk to coals.

Politburo and PBoC pledged "additional tools" to support growth. But policy remained reactive, and our 3Q nominal GDP is thus tracking at ~4%Y, well below consensus of 4.7%Y, although real GDP is tracking at 4.5%Y (Consensus: 4.7%Y).

We move FTAI to our Top Pick in Aerospace. We increase our PT to $140 from $105 as we continue to see FTAI’s growth prospects underappreciated by the market.

Despite oversupply being the industry consensus, we are yet to see any signs of material improvement. We believe it will take another 6-12 months for supply chain prices to return to gross profit break-even levels even though we think prices have already bottomed.

We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 15 days. This is because of an earnings release. 2Q gross margin was better than feared and AI server gross margin actually increased q/q, resulting in 2Q beating our and consensus expectations. With AI server demand still robust, and potential margin upside with rising mix of liquid-cooled AI servers, we believe Giga-Byte wil...

A prolonged destocking process and weak demand could still cap valuations. More disciplined channel control and potentially better shareholder returns by leading players could offset some downside. Prefer Fen Wine, Moutai, ZJLD; downgrade WLY to EW; maintain EW on Laojiao, Gujing and UW Yanghe.

We think recent share price weakness offers a good opportunity to build positions in Hon Hai for its Blackwell server exposure, iPhone replacement demand, and profit growth potential. Valuation is also attractive at 12x 2025e P/E, vs. ODM peers' 14x. Reiterate OW and NT$270 price target.

As global auto production schedules decelerate, 2Q results helped 'reset the bar' for supplier outlooks. Management teams responded by cutting costs and increasing buybacks. Investors remain unimpressed, further de-rating the multiples of most supplier names.

Recent market and factor volatilities have changed the factor valuation landscape. Cheap factors tend to outperform expensive factors in the US, Europe and Japan. We propose alternative factor valuation measures and, accordingly, a factor timing strategy to systematically monetise factor valuation.

Consistent solid growth has long sustained INTU's multiple premium versus peers. Now along with the increased volatility from recently acquired CK and Mailchimp, we fear pushing too hard on price may be contributing to share losses at TurboTax and introduces risk at QuickBooks. Downgrade to EW.

We cut 2024-26E EPS by assuming net adds of 2mn/quarter from 2H24 onward (was >3mn), partially offset by higher ARPPU (driven by SuperVIP) and better margin. Stay OW – our thesis is not derailing, with 20% 2024-26E EPS CAGR, plus less macro and competitive risk than most other verticals.