TMTB EOD Wrap
QQQs -44bps as SOX -1.6% went back to doing what it does best: underperforming, although the price action in NVDA was quite encouraging. We’ve been writing about how r/r begins to get pretty juicy at around $125 and it hit $127. $125 is also the 150d, which is where stock has liked to bounce at the 150d:
Obviously stock narrative a bit muddied right around with concerns around ASICs and scaling limits as well as some sell-siders in Asia (Jefferies + MS) saying not much upside in Jan and Apr. We’ll see what happens. MRVL -10% was the big loser as JPM Asia said AI chip will win some Tranium 3 biz, although we’ve been hearing that for a while now and a reader added some color in TMTB chat:
A bit of de-risking ahead of FOMC tomorrow with some weakness in momentum names. TSLA px continues surprisingly strong - doesn’t matter what kind of factor day it is and continues to finish near the highs of the day every day (Mizuho ug today)
FOMC and MU on deck tomorrow. Treasuries didn’t do much today finishing flat while market is pricing in 100% chance of 25bp cut tomorrow and just 50bps of cuts in 2025. This chart from Harnett at BAML was getting passed around a lot today, showing US equity allocation near highs:
Market was down but today was a happy day! As my wife said yesterday: “There are thousands of reasons to be unhappy. I don’t even need one reason to be happy!”
Slow day - had to throw some dharma in there…
Let’s get to it!
Internet:
SHOP +3% as Yip weekly data upticked slightly
AMZN -75bps as Yip showed AWS tracking to around 20%
GOOGL -60bps took a bit of a breather
META -75bps as Trump met with Tiktok CEO yeterday
RDDT - 5% the big loser on the day - didn’t see much
China names rallied: BABA +1.3%; BIDU +2%
UBER +1%. Two straight green days! What is going on?
EBAY +90bps as they announced incremental $3B share repurchase program
PINS +2% despite MS cutting #s
MTCH -2.4% on a dg
Semis:
We called out MRVL -10% and NVDA - 1.2% above
AMD -1.3% as Wolfe put out a $7B GPU numbers. Bulls will say numbers now reset and chart sitting at Aug lows which would be an optimal place for stock to bounce while roadmap past MI325 looks better and valuatoin has come down to a more palatable 25x ‘25 P/E for what is still like 15%+/25% topline/eps growth next year . Bears will say AMD is playing a losing game and need more evidence of AI chips actually gaining traction at customers before stock can sustainable rally.
AVGO -4% giving back some - although not much - of its massive gains over the past two days
MU +30bps continues to act well ahead of earnings
Analog names mixed: ON +2%; ADI -1%; TXN -70bps; MCHP +1.3%
MBLY +5% continues to act well as investors want exposure to any self-driving themes (waymo launched in Japan today)
IONQ +5% rocketing to new highs
Software
FSLY +1.6% as M-sci called out strength in e-comm and streaming
CRM -1.7%: not a ton new at Agentforce 2.0 release. Said they will hire 2k people to sell AI products
MNDY-8%. All I saw is this:
ADBE -1.3% trying to make its claim as the UBER of software (goes down every day)
APP -2%
NET +2.5% as Stifel upgraded to Buy
Elsewhere
Go-go TSLA +3.6% Go-go (Mizuho ug / Waymo launched in Japan. At this point in FSD’s lifecycle, any positive news — even for a competitor — is positive news)
CRDO -10% as Susq initiated neutral
AAPL +1% is always sneakily up 1% every time I look at it. Knowing myself, I’ll probably be pitching this thing 20% higher in the summer heading into the IP17 release. I can see it now July 20th, 2025: “TMTB Weekly: AAPL the real AI winner ahead of massive product cycle” as I then write about Siri AI at $10/month driving big rev upside + multiple expansion. Never occurs to me to just buy the stock now.
Bullish and Bearish Weekly Option Flow
