2024_04_01_d31964bb42983d45e725g

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY:
Accounting, Technology &
Competitive Aspects of the
Emerging Industry
虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Principal Sponsor: Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation
主要赞助商：尼亚加拉莫霍克电力公司

Co-Sponsors: CSC Index 合办方：CSC 指数

NYS Energy Research and Development Authority
纽约州能源研究与发展局

Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy Series
监管经济学和政策系列主题

Michael A. Crew, Editor
迈克尔·A·克鲁，编辑

Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University
罗格斯大学管理研究生院

Newark, New Jersey, U.S.A.
新泽西州纽瓦克

Previously published books in the series:
系列中先前出版的书籍：

Crew, M.: 船员，M.

Competition and the Regulation of Utilities
竞争与公用事业的监管

Crew, M., and P. Kleindorfer:
船员，M.和 P. Kleindorfer：

Competition and Innovation in Postal Services
邮政服务中的竞争与创新

Thompson, H.: 汤普森，H.

Regulatory Finance: Financial Foundations of Rate of Return Regulation
监管金融：回报率监管的金融基础

Crew, M.: 船员，M.

Economic Innovations in Public Utility Regulation
公共事业监管中的经济创新

Crew, M., and P. Kleindorfer:
船员，M.和 P. Kleindorfer：

The Economics of Postal Service
邮政服务的经济学

Crew, M., and P. Kleindorfer:
船员，M.和 P. Kleindorfer：

Regulation and the Nature of Postal and Delivery Services
规定和邮政和投递服务的性质

Oren, S. and S. Smith.:
奥伦，S.和 S.史密斯。

Service Opportunities for Electric Utilities: Creating Differentiated Products
电力公用事业的服务机会：创造差异化产品

Kolbe, A. L., W. B. Tye, and S. C. Myers:
科尔贝，A.L.，Tye，W.B.和 Myers，S.C.

Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications to Natural Gas Pipelines
监管风险：经济原理及其在天然气管道中的应用

Pechman, C.: 彼奇曼，C.

Regulating Power: The Economics of Electricity in the Information Age
调控电力：信息时代的电力经济学

Gordon, R. L.: 戈登，R.L.

Regulation and Economic Analysis: A Critique Over Two Centuries
法规与经济分析：两个世纪的批评

Blackmon, G.: 布莱克蒙，G.

Incentive Regulation and the Regulations of Incentives
激励性监管和激励规定

Crew, M.: 船员，M.

Incentive Regulation for Public Utilities
公共事业的激励性监管

Crew, M.: 船员，M.

Commercialization of Postal and Delivery Services
邮政和快递服务的商业化

Abbott, T. A.: 艾伯特，T. A.

Health Care Policy and Regulation
医疗保健政策和监管

Goff, B.: 戈夫，B.

Regulation and Macroeconomic Performance
规章制度与宏观经济表现

Coate, M.B. and A.N. Kleit:
Coate, M.B.和 A.N. Kleit:

The Economics of the Antitrust Process
反垄断程序的经济学

Crew, M.: 船员，M.

Pricing and Regulatory Innovations Under Increasing Comptetition
在竞争日益激烈的情况下，定价和监管创新

Crew, M., and P. Kleindorfer:
船员，M.和 P. Kleindorfer：

Managing Change in the Postal Delivery Industries
邮政投递行业的变革管理

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY:
Accounting, Technology & Competitive Aspects of the Emerging Industry
虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Edited by 编辑者

Shimon Awerbuch 西蒙·阿韦布赫

Energy Finance and Economics
能源金融与经济

and

Alistair Preston 艾利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿

University of New Mexico
新墨西哥大学

Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
斯普林格科学+商业媒体有限责任公司

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
国会图书馆编目出版数据

The virtual utility : accounting, technology & competitive aspects of the emerging industry / edited by Shimon Awerbuch and Alistair Preston.
虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面 / 编辑：Shimon Awerbuch 和 Alistair Preston。

p. cm. -- (Topics in regulatory economics and policy ; 26)
页，厘米 -- (监管经济与政策主题；26)

Papers presented at the Symposium on the Virtual Utility, 1996, Saratoga Springs, New York.
1996 年在纽约州萨拉托加斯普林斯举行的虚拟公用事业研讨会上提交的论文。

ISBN 978-1-4613-7827-3 ISBN 978-1-4615-6167-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-6167-5
ISBN 978-1-4613-7827-3 ISBN 978-1-4615-6167-5（电子书）DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-6167-5

Electric utilities--United States--Congresses. I. Awerbuch, Shimon. II. Preston, Alistair. III. Symposium on the Virtual Utility (1996 : Saratoga Springs, N.Y.) IV. Series. HD9685.U5V57 1997
电力公用事业--美国--国会。一。阿韦布赫，西蒙。二。普雷斯顿，阿利斯泰尔。三。虚拟公用事业研讨会（1996 年：纽约州萨拉托加泉）四。系列。HD9685.U5V57 1997

333.793'2'0973--dc21 97-6293
333.793'2'0973--dc21 97-6293 的翻译结果是：333.793'2'0973--dc21 97-6293

CIP

by Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York in 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997
版权所有 © Springer Science+Business Media New York 由 Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York 于 1997 年首次出版平装重印版 1997 年第一版

All rights reserved. 保留所有权利。
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photo-copying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
本出版物的任何部分未经出版商 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 事先书面许可，不得以任何形式或任何方式进行复制、存储于检索系统或传输，包括机械、复印、录音或其他方式。

Printed on acid-free paper
印刷在无酸纸上

To Erich and Lilly Awerbuch
给 Erich 和 Lilly Awerbuch

CONTENTS 目录

Sponsors and Participants ..... xi
赞助商和参与者..... xi
Contributors ..... xiii 贡献者 ..... xiii
Preface ..... xxi 前言..... xxi
PART I INTRODUCTION ..... 1
第一部分引言..... 1
Editor's Introduction and Reader's Guide to this Book ..... 3
编辑介绍和读者指南 ..... 3
Shimon Awerbuch 西蒙·阿韦布赫
PART II HISTORIC AND STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE: FROM MONOPOLY SERVICE TO VIRTUAL UTILITY ..... 17
第二部分：历史和战略视角：从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业..... 17
1 Consensus, Confrontation and Control in the American Electric Utility System: An Interpretative Framework for the Virtual Utility Conference ..... 19
美国电力公用事业系统中的共识、对抗和控制：虚拟公用事业会议的解释框架。
Richard F. Hirsh 理查德·F·赫什
2 The Virtual Utility: Strategic and Managerial Perspectives: Welcoming Address ..... 43
虚拟公用事业：战略和管理视角：欢迎辞..... 43
Andrew Vesey 安德鲁·维西
3 Being Virtual: Beyond Restructuring and How We Get There ..... 57
3 虚拟化：超越重组和我们如何实现 ..... 57
Karl R. Rábago 卡尔·R·拉巴戈
PART III THE VIRTUAL UtILITY: PlANNING AND STRATEGIC INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ..... 69
第三部分虚拟公用事业：规划和战略投资分析..... 69
4 The Virtual Utility: Some Introductory Thoughts on Accounting, Learning and the Valuation of Radical Innovation ..... 71
虚拟公用事业：关于会计、学习和激进创新的一些初步思考..... 71
Shimon Awerbuch, Elias G. Carayannis and Alistair Preston
西蒙·阿韦布赫，伊利亚斯·G·卡拉亚尼斯和阿利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿
5 Justifying Capital Investments in the Emerging Electric Utility: Accounting for an Uncertain and Changing Industry Structure ..... 97
在新兴电力公用事业中为资本投资提供合理性：考虑不确定和变化的行业结构..... 97
Raj Aggarwal 拉吉·阿加瓦尔
Discussion ..... 127 讨论..... 127
Richard S. Bower 理查德·S·鲍尔
PART IV RISK MANAGEMENT, OPTIONS AND CONTRACTING FOR A VIRTUAL UTILITY ..... 133
第四部分风险管理、选择和虚拟公用事业的合同..... 133
6 Integrating Financial and Physical Contracting in Electric Power Markets ..... 135
将金融和物理合同整合到电力市场中..... 135
Chitru S. Fernando and Paul R. Kleindorfer
Chitru S. Fernando 和 Paul R. Kleindorfer
7 Capacity Prices in a Competitive Power Market. ..... 175
7 个竞争电力市场中的容量价格。..... 175
Frank C. Graves and James A Read, Jr.
弗兰克·C·格雷夫斯和詹姆斯·A·里德 Jr.
8 Managing Risk Using Renewable Energy Technologies ..... 193
使用可再生能源技术进行风险管理..... 193
Thomas E. Hoff and Christy Herig
托马斯·E·霍夫和克里斯蒂·赫里格
Discussion ..... 215 讨论..... 215
Mark Reeder 马克·里德尔
PART V INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO DEREGULATION. ..... 221
第五部分：工业组织、技术变革和对解除管制的战略应对。..... 221
9 Monopoly and Antitrust Policies in NetworkBased Markets such as Electricity ..... 223
9. 在基于网络的市场中，如电力市场，垄断和反垄断政策..... 223
William Shepherd 威廉·谢泼德
10 Services in an Unbundled and Open Electric Services Marketplace ..... 249
在一个非捆绑和开放的电力服务市场中提供的 10 项服务..... 249
Shmuel S. Oren and Dennis J. Ray
沙姆埃尔·S·奥伦和丹尼斯·J·雷
11 Technological Change and the Electric Power Industry: Insights from Telecommunications ..... 275
11. 技术变革与电力行业：来自电信业的见解..... 275
Bridger M. Mitchell and Peter J. Spinney
布里奇·M·米切尔和彼得·J·斯皮尼
Discussion ..... 297 讨论.....297
Jan Hamrin 简体中文：Jan Hamrin
PART VI NETWORK ARCHITECTURE AND STANDARDIZATION ..... 305
第六部分网络架构和标准化..... 305
12 Interconnected System Operations and Expansion Planning in a Changing Industry: Coordination vs. Competition ..... 307
12 个互联系统运营和扩展规划在不断变化的行业中：协调与竞争..... 307
Marija D. Ilić, Leonard Hyman, Eric H. Allen, Roberto Cordero and Chien-Ning

Marija D. Ilić，Leonard Hyman，Eric H. Allen，Roberto Cordero 和 Chien-Ning

13 Rules of the Road and Electric Traffic Controllers: Making a Virtual Utility Feasible ..... 333
13 条道路规则和电动交通控制器：使虚拟公用事业成为可能..... 333
Fernando L. Alvarado 费尔南多·L·阿尔瓦拉多
Discussion-The Walrus and the Carpenter: Two Views on Network Services for Virtual Utilities. ..... 357
讨论-海象和木匠：关于虚拟公用事业网络服务的两种观点。..... 357
Hyde M. Merrill, Ramón Nadira and Steven J. Balser
海德·M·梅里尔，拉蒙·纳迪拉和史蒂文·J·巴尔瑟
PART VII FROM MONOPOLY SERVICE TO VIRTUAL UTILITY ..... 369
第七部分从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业..... 369
14 The Future Structure of the North American Utility Industry ..... 371
14 北美公用事业行业的未来结构..... 371
Michael Weiner, Nitin Nohria, Amanda Hickman and Huard Smith
迈克尔·韦纳、尼廷·诺里亚、阿曼达·希克曼和休尔德·史密斯
PART VIII PERSPECTIVES ..... 391
第八部分视角..... 391
15 The Bottom Line: A Summary and Analysis of the Virtual Utility Conference ..... 393
15 底线：虚拟公用事业会议的摘要和分析..... 393
Leonard S. Hyman 伦纳德·S·海曼
16 The Virtual Utility And Environmental Stewardship ..... 403
16 虚拟公共事业和环境管理..... 403
Carl J. Weinberg 卡尔·J·温伯格

A Volume of Papers from the Symposium on The Virtual Utility Saratoga Spring, N.Y., March 1996
纽约萨拉托加泉虚拟公用事业研讨会论文集，1996 年 3 月。

Advisory Committee 咨询委员会Richard Bower, Ph.D. 理查德·鲍尔，博士Tuck School, Dartmouth College
达特茅斯学院塔克商学院Paul Kleindorfer, Ph.D. 保罗·克莱因多夫博士Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院William A. Wallace, Ph.D.
威廉·A·华莱士，博士。Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems
决策科学与工程系统Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
伦斯勒理工学院Michael Crew, Ph.D. 迈克尔·克鲁博士Rutgers University 罗格斯大学John Shank, Ph.D. 约翰·尚克，博士。Tuck School, Dartmouth College
达特茅斯学院塔克商学院Jane Weissman 简·韦斯曼Photovoltaics for Utilities,
公用事业的光伏发电Interstate Renewable Energy Council
州际可再生能源委员会

Principal Sponsor:

Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation,

Syracuse, N.Y.

Co-Sponsors:

CSC Index

NYS Energy Research and Development Authority

Other Sponsors:

Edison Electric Institute

Technology Transition

Solarex \bullet AstroPower \bullet US Department of

Energy, Boston Office

Robert O. Anderson Schools of

Management and The School of Public Administration,

University of New Mexico

Hosted by:

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute,

Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems,

Troy, NY

CONTRIBUTORS 贡献者

Raj Aggarwal, holds the Edward and Louise Mellen Chair in Finance, John Carroll University and specializes in strategic analysis. and international business. Dr.
拉吉·阿加瓦尔在约翰·卡罗尔大学担任爱德华和路易丝·梅伦金融讲座教授，专注于战略分析和国际商务。
Aggarwal is the author of twelve books and over fifty scholarly papers, serves on the editorial boards of Journal of Economics and Business, Financial Review and Journal of International Business Studies, and is the editor of Financial Practice and Education.
阿加瓦尔是十二本书和五十多篇学术论文的作者，担任《经济与商业杂志》、《金融评论》和《国际商务研究杂志》的编辑委员会成员，并担任《金融实践与教育》的编辑。
He has been an officer of the Financial Management Association, Financial Executives Institute, Eastern Finance Association, and the Academy of International Business, of which he is also a Fellow. Dr.
他曾是金融管理协会、财务高管协会、东部金融协会和国际商务学院的成员，其中他也是一位院士。
Aggarwal is a former Senior Fulbright Research Scholar and is listed in Who's Who in Finance and Industry.
阿加瓦尔是前高级富布莱特研究学者，并被列入《金融与工业名人录》。

Fernando Alvarado, is Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison.
费尔南多·阿尔瓦拉多，是威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的电气与计算机工程学教授。
He is a Fellow, IEEE and an affiliate of the Power Systems Engineering Research Consortium His research involves transmission costing/pricing, power system operating limits, computational problems associated with large power systems, electromagnetic transients, voltage problems and the use of indices for the direct evaluation of system performance. Dr.
他是 IEEE 的会士，也是电力系统工程研究联盟的成员。他的研究涉及输电成本/定价、电力系统运行限制、大型电力系统的计算问题、电磁暂态、电压问题以及使用指标直接评估系统性能。
Alvarado also developed the partitioned inverse method, an important contributions to parallel computation.
阿尔瓦拉多还开发了分区逆方法，对并行计算做出了重要贡献。

Shimon Awerbuch is an independent economist (Nashua, NH) specializing in energy/regulatory finance and economics and a former member of the finance faculty at U.Mass-Lowell where he taught Corporate and Regulatory Finance and the Finance of Manufacturing and New Technology. Dr.
Shimon Awerbuch 是一位独立经济学家（来自新罕布什尔州纳舒厄市），专攻能源/监管金融和经济学，并曾任教于 U.Mass-Lowell 的金融学院，教授企业和监管金融以及制造业和新技术金融。
Awerbuch has authored or contributed several books and numerous articles in leading journals including the American Economic Review and the Journal of Regulatory Economics, and was the guest editor for a recent issue of Energy Policy devoted to the valuation of renewables.
Awerbuch 在多本书籍中担任作者或贡献者，并在包括《美国经济评论》和《监管经济学杂志》在内的主要期刊上发表了许多文章，并担任了最近一期《能源政策》的客座编辑，该期刊专门讨论可再生能源的估值问题。
He testifies in regulatory proceedings and recently presented his research to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development.
他在监管程序中作证，并最近向联合国可持续发展委员会展示了他的研究。

Steven J. Balser received his BSEE, MSEE, and Ph.D. degrees in 1969, 1972, and 1974, respectively, all from Purdue University. He is the President of Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, New York. Dr.
史蒂文·J·巴尔瑟于 1969 年、1972 年和 1974 年分别在普渡大学获得了电气工程学士、硕士和博士学位。他现任纽约州斯克内克塔迪的 Power Technologies, Inc.公司总裁。
Balser specializes in the modeling, simulation, control and instrumentation of electric power systems. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE.
巴尔瑟专注于电力系统的建模、仿真、控制和仪器仪表。他是 IEEE 的高级会员。

Richard S. Bower is the Leon E. Williams Professor of Finance and Managerial Economics Emeritus at The Amos Tuck School of Business Administration,
理查德·S·鲍尔是阿莫斯·塔克商学院金融与管理经济学名誉教授。

Dartmouth College. He has published nearly 100 papers on finance and regulation and recently contributed to the 1995 Handbook of Modern Finance.
达特茅斯学院。他在金融和监管方面发表了近 100 篇论文，并最近为 1995 年的《现代金融手册》做出了贡献。
He has been a Commissioner of the NY PSC, editor of Financial Management, President of the Financial Management Association and has testified extensively in regulatory proceedings.
他曾担任纽约公共服务委员会委员、《财务管理》编辑、财务管理协会主席，并在监管程序中进行了广泛的证词。

Elias G. Carayannis is Assistant Professor at the School of Business and Public Management, George Washington University where he specializes in Strategic Technology Management. Dr.
Elias G. Carayannis 是乔治华盛顿大学商学与公共管理学院的助理教授，专攻战略技术管理。
Carayannis consults with Sandia National Laboratory's Alliance for Technology Entrepreneurship and other technology-based organizations. His Ph.D. in Technology Management and MBA in Finance are from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Carayannis 与 Sandia 国家实验室的技术创业联盟和其他技术型组织进行咨询。他的技术管理博士学位和金融硕士学位均来自伦斯勒理工学院。

Chitru Fernando, is a financial economist specializing in financial markets, international and corporate finance, public utilities and the energy sector.
Chitru Fernando，是一位专注于金融市场、国际和企业金融、公共事业和能源领域的金融经济学家。
He is on the faculty of the Freeman School of Business, Tulane University and has carried out research on the design of market-based mechanisms, focusing on issues such as privatization and incentives.
他是图兰大学弗里曼商学院的教职人员，他进行了市场机制设计的研究，重点关注私有化和激励等问题。
He has consulted with US and foreign power companies on pricing, regulatory and institutional issues associated with restructuring and privatization and has been an advisor to the World Bank on issues of global environmental financing.
他曾就与重组和私有化相关的定价、监管和机构问题咨询美国和外国电力公司，并担任世界银行在全球环境融资问题上的顾问。
He has published in the Journal of Regulatory Economics and the Energy Journal.
他在《监管经济学杂志》和《能源杂志》上发表过文章。

Frank C. Graves is a Principal at Brattle-IRI (Cambridge, MA). He has assisted in the design and implementation of major investment and contracting decisions, pricing policies, and planning models for major gas and electric utilities, and governmental and regulatory agencies.
弗兰克·C·格雷夫斯是布拉特尔-IRI（马萨诸塞州剑桥市）的负责人。他曾协助设计和实施重大投资和合同决策、定价政策以及主要燃气和电力公用事业、政府和监管机构的规划模型。
He has published, testified and consulted extensively on capacity expansion risk analysis, transmission network modeling and marginal cost estimation, design and pricing of new services, the economics of unbundling, market entry, and new services.
他在容量扩展风险分析、传输网络建模和边际成本估算、新服务的设计和定价、拆分经济学、市场进入和新服务方面进行了广泛的出版、证词和咨询。
His recent work focuses on lessons from the unbundling of natural gas pipelines. He has an MS with a finance concentration from the MIT Sloan School.
他最近的工作重点是从天然气管道的拆分中得到的教训。他在麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院获得了金融专业的硕士学位。

Jan Hamrin is a Principal with the Center for Resource Solutions/HMW International in San Francisco and formerly a Principal with Hansen, McOuat & Hamrin, Inc. Her research focuses on integrating renewables into the utility system.
Jan Hamrin 是旧金山资源解决方案中心/ HMW 国际的负责人，曾是 Hansen，McOuat＆Hamrin 公司的负责人。她的研究重点是将可再生能源整合到公用事业系统中。
She is the Research Director for the National Council on Competition and the Electric Industry, where she oversees research related to restructuring. Previously, she founded and served as Executive Director of the National Independent Energy Producers' Association. Dr.
她是国家竞争与电力行业委员会的研究主任，负责监督与重组相关的研究工作。此前，她创立并担任国家独立能源生产者协会的执行主任。
Hamrin co-authored two books for NARUC and has served with the California Energy Commission. Her Ph.D. (UC-Davis) is in Ecology with emphasis on public policy, environmental & energy programs.
Hamrin 与 NARUC 合著了两本书，并曾在加利福尼亚能源委员会任职。她在加州大学戴维斯分校获得生态学博士学位，重点研究公共政策、环境和能源项目。

Christy Herig is a Senior Utility Engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory where she provides analytical and project management support for both the utility and state programs. Previously, while at Florida Power Corporation, she
克里斯蒂·赫里格是美国国家可再生能源实验室的高级公用事业工程师，为公用事业和州级项目提供分析和项目管理支持。此前，在佛罗里达电力公司工作时，她
provided special project management in all aspects of utility operations and successfully implemented programs in photovoltaics, electric vehicles, power quality, power electronics and interruptible service.
在公用事业运营的各个方面提供特殊的项目管理，并成功实施了光伏、电动汽车、电力质量、电力电子和可中断服务等项目。

Amanda Young Hickman is Vice President in CSC Index's utility practice, where she focuses on competitive strategy, business growth and organizational transformation. Ms. Hickman has managed engagements in the US, Canada and Europe dealing with re-engineering, process centered management, strategic process redesign, product portfolio management and profitability drivers for telecommunications firms, public utilities and Fortune 100 manufacturers.
Amanda Young Hickman 是 CSC Index 公用事业实践部的副总裁，她专注于竞争战略、业务增长和组织转型。Hickman 女士在美国、加拿大和欧洲管理了与重组、过程中心化管理、战略过程重设计、产品组合管理和电信公司、公共事业公司和财富 100 强制造商的盈利驱动因素相关的项目。
She holds an MBA (Harvard Business School) and a BA from Princeton.
她拥有哈佛商学院的 MBA 学位和普林斯顿大学的学士学位。

Richard F. Hirsh is a Professor History of Technology and Science & Technology Studies at Virginia Tech and has been a Research Fellow at the Harvard University graduate School of Business.
理查德·F·赫什是弗吉尼亚理工大学的技术与科学历史以及科技研究教授，并曾是哈佛大学商学研究生院的研究员。
He is the author of numerous papers as well as several books, including Technology and Transformation in the American Electric Utility Industry (Cambridge University Press, 1989), which describes the technological, managerial, and cultural reasons for the industry's problems of the 1970's.
他是许多论文和几本书的作者，包括《美国电力公用事业行业的技术与转型》（剑桥大学出版社，1989 年），该书描述了该行业在 20 世纪 70 年代出现问题的技术、管理和文化原因。
He is currently finishing a new book dealing with the utility system's further transformation since the 1970's.
他目前正在完成一本新书，讨论自 1970 年代以来公用事业系统的进一步转型。

Thomas E. Hoff is a Ph.D. candidate in Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University.
托马斯·E·霍夫是斯坦福大学工程经济系统专业的博士候选人。
His dissertation, Investments Under Uncertainty, demonstrates that option valuation, dynamic discounted cash flow, and decision analysis must yield the result in the same value when applied to investments that are spanned by market traded assets. Mr. Hoff is a Principal, of Pacific Energy Group.
他的论文《不确定性下的投资》表明，期权估值、动态贴现现金流和决策分析在应用于市场交易资产所涵盖的投资时必须得出相同的价值结果。霍夫先生是太平洋能源集团的负责人。

Leonard S. Hyman, is Senior Industry Analyst, Smith Barney Inc. and a widely recognized expert in the economics/finances of energy & telecommunications utilities.
莱纳德·S·海曼是史密斯·巴尼公司的高级行业分析师，他是能源和电信公用事业经济/金融领域的广泛认可的专家。
Until recently he was head of the Utility Research Group and First Vice President of Merrill Lynch, where he supervised equity research on foreign and domestic utilities. Mr. Hyman has written and spoken widely on utility finance and deregulation; he has testified before Congress and has served on advisory panels for the OTA and NSF.
直到最近，他担任公用事业研究小组负责人和美林证券的首席副总裁，负责监督对国内外公用事业的股票研究。Hyman 先生在公用事业金融和放松管制方面有广泛的写作和演讲经验；他曾在国会作证，并在 OTA 和 NSF 的咨询小组中任职。
He is the author of America's Electric Utilities: Past, Present, and Future, co-author of The New Telecommunications Industry: Evolution and Organization and editor of The Privatization of Public Utilities.
他是《美国电力公用事业：过去、现在和未来》的作者，是《新电信行业：演变与组织》的合著者，也是《公共事业的私有化》的编辑。

Marija Ilic is a Senior Research Scientist at MIT and has been actively involved in teaching and research on large-scale electric power systems at three major universities.
Marija Ilic 是麻省理工学院的高级研究科学家，一直积极参与三所主要大学关于大规模电力系统的教学和研究。
She is a member of the MIT Laboratory for Electromagnetic and Electronic Systems and the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Her interests are in the areas of control and network theory applications to large scale power systems.
她是麻省理工学院电磁与电子系统实验室和能源与环境政策研究中心的成员。她的兴趣领域是控制和网络理论在大规模电力系统中的应用。

Paul R. Kleindorfer is the Universal Furniture Professor of Decision Sciences and Economics at the Wharton School, holds an MBA from Wharton, with
保罗·R·克莱因多夫是沃顿商学院决策科学和经济学的通用家具教授，拥有沃顿的工商管理硕士学位，以及
concentrations in strategic management and decision sciences. Dr. Kleindorfer is the author or co-author of 10 books and over 100 research papers in the areas of managerial economics, quality and regulation.
战略管理和决策科学方面的专业集中。Kleindorfer 博士是 10 本书和 100 多篇研究论文的作者或合著者，涉及管理经济学、质量和监管领域。
He has consulted with regulated telecommunications and energy companies and has been a consultant on privatization and commercialization of state enterprises in Turkey and Eastern Europe. Dr.
他曾与受监管的电信和能源公司进行咨询，并在土耳其和东欧国家的国有企业私有化和商业化方面担任顾问。
Kleindorfer is Co-Director of the Wharton Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes.
Kleindorfer 是沃顿风险管理与决策过程中心的联合主任。

Hyde M. Merrill, Power Technologies, Inc. (Schenectady) specializes in power system state estimation, power plant maintenance scheduling, least-cost planning in the presence of conflicting objectives and uncertainty, and transmission access and wheeling. Dr.
海德·M·梅里尔，Power Technologies，Inc.（斯克内克塔迪）专注于电力系统状态估计，发电厂维护调度，存在冲突目标和不确定性的最低成本规划，以及输电通道和轮换。
Merrill has taught at MIT is a Fellow of the IEEE, a registered professional engineer and Executive Chairman of the 1995 Power Industry Computer Applications (PICA) Conference.
梅里尔曾在麻省理工学院任教，是 IEEE 的会士，注册专业工程师，也是 1995 年电力行业计算机应用（PICA）会议的执行主席。

Bridger Mitchell is a Vice President and Director of Charles River Associates Palo Alto office. His professional activities have focused on competition, pricing, and interconnection issues in telecommunications and the regulation of cable TV.
布里奇·米切尔是查尔斯河协会帕洛阿尔托办事处的副总裁和主任。他的专业活动主要集中在电信领域的竞争、定价和互联互通问题，以及有线电视的监管。
He has written four books, dealing with telecommunications competition and pricing, a comparison of European and US regulatory policy, and lessons from European peak-load pricing for US energy policy.
他已经写了四本书，涉及电信竞争和定价，欧洲和美国监管政策的比较，以及从欧洲峰值定价中得到的对美国能源政策的启示。
His previous work in network economics, measurement of technological change, estimation of multi-product cost functions and the assessment of market penetration rates after divestiture has direct relevance to current electric power issues.
他在网络经济学、技术变革的测量、多产品成本函数的估计以及剥离后市场渗透率的评估方面的先前工作与当前的电力问题直接相关。

Ramón Nadira received the degree of Electrical Engineer (with highest honors) from Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela, in 1979, and the MSEE and Ph.D. degrees in 1983 and 1989, respectively, both from Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
拉蒙·纳迪拉于 1979 年从委内瑞拉卡拉卡斯西蒙·玻利瓦尔大学获得电气工程学士学位（最高荣誉），分别于 1983 年和 1989 年从俄亥俄州克利夫兰凯斯西储大学获得电气工程硕士和博士学位。
He is currently a Senior Engineer in the Competitive Resource Planning Unit of Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, New York. His principal area of current interest is the strategic planning of modern electric power systems. Dr. Nadira is a Senior Member of the IEEE.
他目前是纽约州斯克内克塔迪的 Power Technologies 公司竞争资源规划部门的高级工程师。他目前主要关注的领域是现代电力系统的战略规划。Nadira 博士是 IEEE 的高级会员。

Nitin Nohria is an Associate Professor at the Harvard Business School and serves as a consultant to numerous firms. Professor Nohria is the co-author of Beyond the Hype: Rediscovering the Essence of Management, and author of Building the Information Age Organization, which examines the role of information technology in transforming organizations.
尼廷·诺里亚是哈佛商学院的副教授，并为许多公司担任顾问。诺里亚教授是《超越炒作：重新发现管理的本质》的合著者，也是《构建信息时代的组织》的作者，该书探讨了信息技术在转型组织中的作用。
He also co-edited Networks and Organizations: Structure, Form, and Action, which deals with the emergence of network-like organizations.
他还与他人合作编辑了《网络与组织：结构、形式和行动》，该书涉及网络化组织的出现。
He is currently investigating the dynamics of organizational change through downsizing, strategic alliances, and the impact of total quality management and re-engineering.
他目前正在通过裁员、战略联盟以及全面质量管理和再造的影响来研究组织变革的动态。

Shmuel S. Oren is Professor of Industrial Engineering & Operations Research at UC-Berkeley. He holds an MS from the Technion, and a Ph.D. in EngineeringEconomic Systems from Stanford. His research and consulting focus on the design
Shmuel S. Oren 是加州大学伯克利分校的工业工程与运筹学教授。他拥有以色列理工学院的硕士学位，以及斯坦福大学的工程经济系统博士学位。他的研究和咨询专注于设计
and analysis of pricing strategies in private and public sectors and regulated industries.
私营部门、公共部门和受监管行业的定价策略分析。
He has co-authored several journal articles and EPRI reports that lay the methodological foundation for product differentiation and unbundling of service attributes in the electric utility industry and has also published extensively on numerical optimization, nonlinear pricing, incentives design, IPP bidding and transmission pricing.
他与其他人合著了几篇期刊文章和 EPRI 报告，为电力公用事业行业的产品差异化和服务属性拆分奠定了方法论基础，并在数值优化、非线性定价、激励设计、独立电力生产者竞标和输电定价等方面发表了大量文章。
He has consulted with NEES, Niagara Mohawk, New Zealand ElectroCorp. and PG&E.
他曾咨询过 NEES、Niagara Mohawk、New Zealand ElectroCorp.和 PG&E。

Alistair Preston is Associate Dean and Professor of Accounting, Anderson Schools of Management, U. of New Mexico. He holds a Ph.D. from the U. of Bath, England. His areas of expertise include accounting and control systems, and management information systems. He has published in professional journals including Accounting Organizations and Society, Accounting Auditing and Accountability, and Accounting, Management and Information Technologies. Dr.
阿利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿是新墨西哥大学安德森管理学院的副院长和会计学教授。他拥有英国巴斯大学的博士学位。他的专业领域包括会计和控制系统以及管理信息系统。他在包括《会计组织与社会》、《会计审计与责任》和《会计、管理与信息技术》在内的专业期刊上发表过文章。
Preston has consulted to a variety of organizations including Sandia, Mobil Solar, & Lovelace Medical Center.
普雷斯顿曾为多个组织提供咨询，包括桑迪亚、摩比尔太阳能和洛夫莱斯医疗中心。

Karl R. Rabago has recently joined the Environmental Defense Fund where he will manage utility restructuring and renewable energy activities. Previously, Mr. Rabago served as Deputy Assistant Secretary, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, US Department of Energy, and as a Texas Public Utilities Commissioner. Mr. Rabago has also served as a professor of environmental & criminal law, Houston Law Center and as an officer, US Army, where he graduated the Airborne and Ranger schools and served on the West Point faculty. Mr. Rabago has been a prosecutor and defense counsel and an armored cavalry platoon leader.
卡尔·R·拉巴戈最近加入了环境保护基金会，他将负责管理公用事业重组和可再生能源活动。之前，拉巴戈先生曾担任美国能源部能源效率与可再生能源办公室副助理部长，以及德克萨斯州公共事业委员会委员。拉巴戈先生还曾担任休斯顿法律中心的环境与刑法教授，以及美国陆军军官，在空降兵和游骑兵学校毕业，并在西点军校任教。拉巴戈先生曾担任过检察官和辩护律师，还是一名装甲骑兵排长。
He holds post-doctorate Master of Laws in Environmental Law (Pace U.) and in Military Law.
他拥有环境法（佩斯大学）和军事法的博士后法学硕士学位。

Dennis J. Ray is Assistant Professor and Co-Director of the Wisconsin Public Utility Institute, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison and formerly served with the Wisconsin PSC. Dr.
丹尼斯·J·雷是威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校威斯康星公共事业研究所的助理教授和联合主任，曾在威斯康星州公共服务委员会任职。雷博士。
Ray has published numerous papers in such journals as Journal of Regulatory Economics, Utilities Policy and Transactions on Power Systems, and has contributed to several books.
雷在《监管经济学杂志》、《公用事业政策》和《电力系统交易》等期刊上发表了大量论文，并为几本书作出了贡献。
His current research focuses on issues emerging from the restructuring of the electric industry and include Principles of Value-Based Power System Operation and Mixing Price and Reliability Signals for Efficient Power System Operation.
他目前的研究重点是电力行业重组带来的问题，包括基于价值的电力系统运营原则和将价格和可靠性信号混合以实现高效的电力系统运营。

James Read is a Principal at Brattle-IRI (Cambridge, MA). His practice emphasizes the application of financial economics to corporate planning and management. Mr. Read is the author of Option Pricing for Project Evaluation: An Introduction (EPRI) and co-author of Utility Capital Budgeting Notebook (EPRI) and The Cost of Capital: Estimating the Rate of Return for Public Utilities,(MIT Press).
詹姆斯·里德是布拉特尔-IRI（马萨诸塞州剑桥市）的负责人。他的实践强调将金融经济学应用于企业规划和管理。里德先生是《项目评估的期权定价：简介》（EPRI）的作者，也是《公用事业资本预算笔记本》（EPRI）和《资本成本：估计公用事业的回报率》（MIT 出版社）的合著者。
He was formerly the Director of Financial Consulting with Charles River Associates. Mr. Read has a BS from Princeton and an MS with concentrations in finance and statistics from MIT's Sloan School of Management.
他曾是查尔斯河关联公司的金融咨询总监。Read 先生拥有普林斯顿大学的学士学位，以及麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院金融和统计学专业的硕士学位。

Mark Reeder, is an economist and Manager of the Regulatory Economics Section, New York State Public Service Commission. He has testified on issues of marginal cost, avoided cost, rate design, regulatory incentives, and policies concerning independent power producers. Mr. Reeder holds bachelor's (University of Florida) and master's (Brown) degrees in economics.
马克·里德（Mark Reeder）是一位经济学家，也是纽约州公共服务委员会监管经济学部门的经理。他曾就边际成本、避免成本、费率设计、监管激励以及独立发电厂商政策等问题作证。里德先生拥有佛罗里达大学的学士学位和布朗大学的硕士学位。
Prior to joining the Commission in 1979, he was at the Public Utility Research Center, Gainesville, Florida. Mr. Reeder has published papers and spoken widely on topics in the field of regulatory economics.
在 1979 年加入委员会之前，他曾在佛罗里达州盖恩斯维尔的公共事业研究中心工作。Reeder 先生在监管经济领域的主题上发表了论文并广泛演讲。

William G. Shepherd is Professor and Chair at the Department of Economics, UMass-Amherst. Dr. Shepherd is the General Editor of the Review of Industrial Organization, and past president of the Industrial Organization Society.
威廉·G·谢泼德是马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济学系的教授和主任。谢泼德博士是《产业组织评论》的总编辑，也是产业组织学会的前任主席。
His textbooks include The Economics of Industrial Organization, and Public Policies Toward Business. He has also published numerous joint volumes and some 80 articles and chapters in other books.
他的教科书包括《产业组织经济学》和《对企业的公共政策》。他还出版了许多合著作品，并在其他书籍中发表了 80 多篇文章和章节。
He has testified in a number of antitrust and regulatory cases, particularly on defining markets, assessing the degree of competition, and evaluating possible anti-competitive actions.
他在许多反垄断和监管案件中作证，特别是在界定市场、评估竞争程度和评估可能的反竞争行为方面。

Huard G. Smith is a Managing Associate with CSC Index and a member of its global utility practice.
霍尔德·史密斯是 CSC Index 的一名管理合伙人，也是其全球公用事业实践团队的成员。
He has managed projects with major utility clients involving large-scale transformation efforts that include the design of operating strategies to guide these firms through the transition to a deregulated industry. Mr. Smith is coauthor of "Preparing for Industry Upheaval: Why America's Utilities Must Reengineer" (Electricity Journal, August, 1995) which is included in Leonard Hyman's The Privatization of Public Utilities.
他曾管理过与主要公用事业客户合作的项目，涉及大规模的转型工作，包括设计运营策略，引导这些公司过渡到一个去监管的行业。史密斯先生是《为行业动荡做准备：为什么美国的公用事业必须进行再造》（《电力杂志》，1995 年 8 月）的合著者，该文章收录在伦纳德·海曼的《公用事业的私有化》一书中。

Peter Spinney is Director of Resource Planning and Demand Management at Charles River Associates where he has directed resource planning projects for utilities and state regulatory bodies. Mr. Spinney is the architect of CRA's several electric power modeling tools.
彼得·斯皮尼是查尔斯河协会资源规划和需求管理部的主任，他负责指导公用事业和州监管机构的资源规划项目。斯皮尼先生是 CRA 多个电力建模工具的设计师。
He specializes in the application of advanced analytical techniques to quantify and understand the effects of uncertainty on utility generation and other capital budgeting decisions.
他专门研究应用先进的分析技术来量化和理解不确定性对公用事业发电和其他资本预算决策的影响。
He has worked extensively in DSM program planning and evaluation, and developed and managed the Washington State Energy Office's resource evaluation team.
他在 DSM 计划规划和评估方面有丰富的工作经验，并且曾开发和管理华盛顿州能源办公室的资源评估团队。

Andrew M. Vesey is Vice President of Transmission, Entergy Corporation, New Orleans and former Vice President for Power Delivery, Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation. Mr. Vesey is Chairman of Board of the Utility PhotoVoltaic Group, and a member of: The Director's Council, Lighting Research Center, EEI's Engineering and Operating Standards Advisory Committee, The Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Utility DSM Liaison Group and the ASME. Mr. Vesey holds a BA, a BSME and an MS. He has spoken widely about restructuring, competition and the role of new technology.
安德鲁·M·维西是恩特吉公司（Entergy Corporation）的输电副总裁，位于新奥尔良，曾任尼亚加拉莫霍克电力公司（Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation）的电力传输副总裁。维西先生是公用事业光伏集团（Utility PhotoVoltaic Group）董事会主席，并且是以下组织的成员：照明研究中心（Lighting Research Center）董事会、EEI 工程和运营标准咨询委员会、亚太经合组织公用事业 DSM 联络组和 ASME。维西先生拥有学士学位、机械工程学士学位和硕士学位。他广泛发表关于重组、竞争和新技术角色的演讲。

Carl J. Weinberg is the Principal of Weinberg Associates. He previously managed PG&E's R&D program which focused on the introduction of renewable/efficiency technologies. Mr. Weinberg's interests are focused on sustainability issues and the
卡尔·J·温伯格是温伯格联合公司的负责人。他曾负责管理太平洋煤气电力公司的研发项目，重点是引入可再生/高效技术。温伯格先生的兴趣集中在可持续发展问题和
impact of technology on restructuring. He is a member of the Regulatory Assistance Project and serves on the Boards of the American Solar Energy Society and the American Wind Energy Association.
技术对重组的影响。他是监管援助项目的成员，并在美国太阳能协会和美国风能协会的董事会任职。
He has published in numerous journals including Scientific American, and was recently named Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, Univ. of Maryland.
他在包括《科学美国人》在内的众多期刊上发表过文章，并最近被任命为马里兰大学可再生能源政策项目咨询委员会主席。

Michael A. Weiner is Senior Vice President, CSC Index and head of the firm's global utility practice. He has worked with many major utilities in strategic analysis and re-engineering their core business processes.
迈克尔·A·韦纳是 CSC Index 的高级副总裁，也是该公司全球公用事业实践部门的负责人。他曾与许多主要公用事业公司合作，进行战略分析并重新设计其核心业务流程。
Prior to joining Index, he was a senior officer with John Diebold & Associates, a New York based management consulting firm. Mr. Weiner has a master's in business administration from Columbia University and a bachelor's in electrical engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
加入 Index 之前，他是纽约一家管理咨询公司 John Diebold & Associates 的高级职员。Weiner 先生拥有哥伦比亚大学的工商管理硕士学位和 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 的电气工程学士学位。

PREFACE 前言

In the winter of 1996, after 4 years of planning and research, the Symposium on the Virtual Utility was held in Saratoga Springs, New York.
1996 年冬天，在经过 4 年的规划和研究后，虚拟公用事业研讨会在纽约州萨拉托加斯普林斯举行。
It was sponsored by Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation, Co-sponsored by CSC Index and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and hosted by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY.
它由尼亚加拉莫霍克电力公司赞助，由 CSC Index 和纽约州能源研究与发展局共同赞助，并由纽约特洛伊的伦斯勒理工学院主办。
The symposium sought to identify new areas of inquiry by presenting cutting-edge academic and practitioner research intended to further our understanding of the strategic, technologically-driven issues confronting the electricity production and distribution process.
该研讨会旨在通过展示前沿的学术和实践研究，来确定新的研究领域，以进一步理解电力生产和分配过程中面临的战略和技术驱动的问题。
The program sought to offer new insights into rapid changes in the utility industry, in part, by examining analogues from manufacturing and telecommunications.
该计划旨在通过研究制造业和电信业的类似情况，为公用事业行业的快速变化提供新的见解。

In addition to identifying new research areas, the symposium yielded a number of important findings and conclusions.
除了确定新的研究领域外，这次研讨会还得出了一些重要的发现和结论。
This volume contains the presented papers of the meeting, the discussant reports and two special papers prepared by the meeting rapporteurs who performed superbly in analyzing, synthesizing, explaining and generally bringing a cohesive perspective to the interesting yet complex set of ideas presented at this unique meeting.
本卷包含了会议上提交的论文、讨论报告以及两篇特别论文，这些特别论文由会议记录员准备，他们在分析、综合、解释和整体上为这次独特会议上呈现的有趣而复杂的思想提供了协调一致的视角。

We would like to acknowledge the people and organizations that contributed to this effort. We thank Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation and Albert Budney, its President & Chief Operating Officer for sponsoring this project, and Andrew Vesey, Vice President,

whose vision, support and championing made this project possible. Mr. Vesey helped define the context for this effort and coined the term Virtual Utility. We thank our principal co-sponsors, CSC Index and NYSERDA and our other sponsors for their generous financial support.
我们要感谢为这项工作做出贡献的人和组织。我们感谢尼亚加拉莫霍克电力公司和其总裁兼首席运营官阿尔伯特·巴德尼为赞助这个项目，以及副总裁安德鲁·维西的愿景、支持和推动，使这个项目成为可能。维西先生帮助定义了这个工作的背景，并创造了虚拟公用事业这个术语。我们感谢我们的主要合作赞助商 CSC Index 和 NYSERDA 以及其他赞助商的慷慨资金支持。
We also thank our advisory committee who assisted in programming and manuscript selection, and William A. Wallace of Rensselaer for hosting the Symposium.
我们还要感谢我们的咨询委员会在编程和稿件选择方面的帮助，以及雷恩塞勒的威廉·A·华莱士为我们举办研讨会。

We are indebted to Jane Weissman, National Director of Photovoltaics for Utilities and Executive Director of the Interstate Renewable Energy Council, a longstanding colleague and friend, who contributed enormously to this project beginning with its inception in 1992. Finally, we thank Maryteresa Colello, Jennifer LaFrance and Paula Popson, all of whom attended to thousands of details and problems in order to make this volume possible.
我们对简·韦斯曼（Jane Weissman）表示感谢，她是公用事业光伏能源总监和州际可再生能源委员会执行董事，她从 1992 年开始就对这个项目做出了巨大贡献。最后，我们感谢玛丽特蕾莎·科莱洛（Maryteresa Colello）、詹妮弗·拉弗朗斯（Jennifer LaFrance）和宝拉·波普森（Paula Popson），她们处理了成千上万的细节和问题，使这本书得以出版。

Shimon Awerbuch 西蒙·阿韦布赫

Alistair Preston 艾利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿

Part I 第一部分

Introduction 介绍

EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION AND
编辑的介绍和

READER'S GUIDE TO THIS BOOK
读者指南

Shimon Awerbuch 西蒙·阿韦布赫

Energy Finance and Economics
能源金融与经济

INTRODUCTION 介绍

The Context: What Is the Virtual Utility?
虚拟公用事业是什么？

The current transformation of the US electric utility industry is not dissimilar to the significant changes undergone by US manufacturers over the last two decades.
美国电力公用事业行业目前的转型与过去二十年美国制造商所经历的重大变化并无不同。
During this period the industry has changed radically by abandoning previous massproduction protocols and adopting flexible, computer-integrated or "just in time" manufacturing.

A considerable body of literature has investigated this transformation. The virtual utility (VU) is a flexible collaboration of independent, marketdriven entities that provide efficient energy service demanded by consumers without necessarily owning the corresponding assets.
在这个时期，该行业通过放弃以往的大规模生产协议，采用灵活的、计算机集成的或“按需制造”的方式发生了根本性的变化。大量的文献已经对这种转变进行了研究。虚拟公用事业（VU）是一个灵活的、由独立的、市场驱动的实体组成的合作体，它提供消费者需求的高效能源服务，而不一定拥有相应的资产。
The VU becomes a metaphor for lean, flexible electricity production/delivery and flexible, customer-oriented energy service provision.
VU 成为了精益、灵活的电力生产/供应和灵活、以客户为导向的能源服务提供的隐喻。
The VU construct provides a context for examining the issues surrounding the current transformation of the industry in part by adapting and using important concepts developed in the "new manufacturing."
VU 构建提供了一个背景，用于审视当前行业转型的问题，部分原因是通过改编和使用在“新制造业”中开发的重要概念。

Background-Towards a Virtual Utility
背景-朝着虚拟公共事业的方向

New technologies, including solar/renewable resources and other modular options coupled with improved telecommunications capabilities suggest the possibility of fundamental changes in the electricity generation and delivery process.
新技术，包括太阳能/可再生资源和其他模块化选择，结合改进的电信能力，表明电力发电和传输过程可能发生根本性的变化。
These changes, which reflect the declining minimum scale of production facilities, involve a transition away from traditional, vertically integrated central-station sources to more flexible operations consisting of distributed generation, conservation and power purchase/futures arrangements.
这些变化反映了生产设施最低规模的下降，涉及从传统的垂直一体化的中央发电站转向更灵活的操作，包括分布式发电、节能和电力购买/期货安排。
Interestingly, these changes may be similar to those in manufacturing, where new information-based processes led to a shift away from mass production to more flexible, computer-integrated manufacturing often involving novel arrangements with other producers and suppliers.
有趣的是，这些变化可能与制造业中的变化相似，新的信息化流程导致了从大规模生产转向更灵活、计算机集成的制造，通常涉及与其他生产商和供应商的新型安排。

The distributed-utility (DU) concept is a first step towards the broader virtual utility idea.
分布式公用事业（DU）概念是迈向更广泛的虚拟公用事业理念的第一步。
The DU integrates solar and other technologies into a network of "smartsubstations" that may more precisely meet demand for particular types of electric energy thus providing better flexibility and demand-supply balance than previous massproduction-based generation concepts which rely solely on large-capacity, inflexible, central station generators characterized by high transactions costs and irreversibility.
DU 将太阳能和其他技术整合到一个“智能变电站”网络中，可以更精确地满足特定类型电能的需求，从而提供比以前基于大规模生产的发电概念更好的灵活性和需求供应平衡，以前的发电概念仅依赖于容量大、不灵活的中央发电站发电机，其特点是交易成本高且不可逆转。
While under ideal conditions the central-station system may be able to provide power at lower average cost, an increasingly dynamic energy market calls such perceived advantages of this system into question.
在理想条件下，集中供电系统可能能够以较低的平均成本提供电力，然而，日益动态的能源市场对该系统的所谓优势提出了质疑。

While the DU offers a more flexible supply concept, it is not sufficiently broad to properly characterize the emerging utility organization.
尽管 DU 提供了更灵活的供应概念，但它并不足以充分描述新兴的公用事业组织。
The virtual utility (VU) idea, by contrast, seeks to shape an electric generation and delivery process that fully avails itself of the special attributes and complementarities of modular generating technologies thus representing a re-engineering effort in the sense of Hammer [1990] which seeks to design production around the new technology, as opposed to merging the technology into the existing processes.
虚拟公用事业（VU）的概念则试图塑造一个充分利用模块化发电技术的特殊属性和互补性的电力发电和传输过程，从而代表了一种重新设计的努力，即像 Hammer [1990]所说的，设计生产过程以适应新技术，而不是将技术融入现有流程中。
In order to reorganize around these new technologies utilities will need to develop new skills and capabilities. The reengineered utility may be a supply and distribution network that involves many smaller, minimum-cost corporate entities.
为了围绕这些新技术进行重组，公用事业公司需要发展新的技能和能力。重新设计的公用事业可能是一个涉及许多较小、最低成本的企业实体的供应和分配网络。
Some of its assets may be intangible, involving futures delivery and other contractual supply arrangements which, along with telecommunications support, combine to create a set of capabilities to meet specific customer energy needs.
其中一些资产可能是无形的，涉及期货交割和其他合同供应安排，以及与电信支持相结合，以满足特定客户能源需求的一系列能力。
It remains to be determined whether control of such a diverse organization leads to more or less centralization as compared to current dispatch control procedures.
目前尚未确定，与当前的调度控制程序相比，对这样一个多样化组织的控制是否会导致更多或更少的集中化。

Evaluating the VU's Benefits
评估 VU 的好处

Our ability to understand and evaluate the benefits of the virtual utility is impeded by several factors including the use of accounting-based cost definitions such as avoided cost and busbar costs which tend to ignore many of the risks and cost-drivers of utility generation, especially in competitive markets.
我们理解和评估虚拟公用事业的好处的能力受到几个因素的阻碍，包括使用基于会计的成本定义，如避免成本和母线成本，这些定义往往忽视公用事业发电的许多风险和成本驱动因素，尤其是在竞争市场中。
The benefits of newer renewable generating technologies, in particular, are not well understood. Potentially, these technologies
较新的可再生发电技术的好处尤其不为人所了解。潜在地，这些技术可以
present a set of marginal cost and risk-return opportunities considerably different from those traditionally experienced in electric utility regulation.
提供了一组边际成本和风险回报机会，与传统的电力公用事业监管经验有很大的不同。
In addition they present a variety of complementary benefits in the sense of Milgrom and Roberts, [1990] and, potentially, a set of capability options for service delivery in the sense of Baldwin and Clark [1991].
此外，根据 Milgrom 和 Roberts [1990]的观点，它们还提供了各种互补的好处，并且潜在地提供了 Baldwin 和 Clark [1991]所说的服务交付能力选项集合。
However, as is frequently the case with new technology, the full range of complementary benefits is precluded by existing organizational "threshold" structures [Baldwin and Clark, 1991] and production processes.
然而，正如新技术经常发生的情况一样，现有的组织“门槛”结构和生产流程限制了与之相配套的全部好处。
This leads to the problem that current evaluation methodologies, which use accounting schemes based on traditional generating technologies, ignore some of the broader benefits of solar and other modular technologies when they are deployed in an organizational setting designed to fully exploit their benefits.
这导致了一个问题，即当前的评估方法使用基于传统发电技术的会计方案，忽视了太阳能和其他模块化技术在组织环境中部署时所带来的更广泛的好处。

The current utility resource evaluation process relies on present-value revenue requirements

. For a given capacity addition, those technologies that meet the load with the with the lowest projected cost per

are selected to the exclusion of others. Yet the largest single cost factor-generally fuel-is also the least predictable. The procedure is therefore roughly equivalent to buying stocks on the basis of which ones performed well yesterday.
当前的公用事业资源评估过程依赖于现值收入要求。对于给定的容量增加，那些以最低预计成本满足负荷的技术被选择，排除其他技术。然而，最大的单一成本因素-通常是燃料-也是最不可预测的。因此，这个过程大致相当于根据昨天表现良好的股票来购买股票。
Moreover, the current capacity selection process ignores some of the most important cost drivers and transactions costs, such as the likelihood of supplydemand imbalance (i.e.
此外，目前的容量选择过程忽略了一些最重要的成本驱动因素和交易成本，比如供需失衡的可能性（即
excess capacity) attributable to a particular technology choice or the administrative costs of clean-air compliance.
由于特定技术选择或清洁空气合规的行政成本所导致的过剩产能。

Understanding the so-called "distributed-benefits" of modular generating technologies requires an evaluation of their particular attributes.
理解所谓的“分布式效益”需要评估模块化发电技术的特定属性。
Some of the attributes already identified and, to some extent, evaluated in the literature, include: modularity; investment flexibility and reversibility; reduced or avoided transmission and distribution needs, and, for renewables, an absence of fuel-price risk.
一些已在文献中确定并在一定程度上进行评估的属性包括：模块化；投资灵活性和可逆性；减少或避免输电和配电需求；对可再生能源而言，不存在燃料价格风险。
Some of these benefits, especially those pertaining to avoided transmission and distribution costs, have been examined in the context of previous distributed utility analyses, including the Kerman Station Analysis [Wenger and Hoff, 1994].
其中一些好处，尤其是与避免传输和分配成本有关的好处，已在以前的分布式公用事业分析中进行了研究，包括 Kerman Station 分析[Wenger 和 Hoff，1994 年]。
Modularity/flexibility issues have also been studied in the context of the Kerman Station [Applied Decision Analysis, 1993] as well as more generally, [e.g.: Pindyck, 1991; Kaslow and Pindyck, 1994; Trigoris, 1993].
模块化/灵活性问题也在 Kerman Station 的背景下进行了研究[应用决策分析，1993 年]，以及更一般地进行了研究[例如：Pindyck，1991 年；Kaslow 和 Pindyck，1994 年；Trigoris，1993 年]。

Limitations of Existing Accounting
现有会计的局限性

The experience in flexible computer-integrated manufacturing, however, suggests that there exists another set of benefits which have not been examined. Some of these are difficult to evaluate given the traditional cost-accounting procedures used by utilities.
然而，灵活的计算机集成制造经验表明存在另一组尚未被研究的好处。其中一些很难评估，因为公用事业公司使用的传统成本会计程序。
These procedures do not properly capture and reflect overheads and transactions costs as a function of technology and/or customers.
这些程序未能正确捕捉和反映与技术和/或客户相关的间接费用和交易成本。
For example, solar-based generation may reduce fuel purchasing and inventory requirements and yield potential reductions in overhead and working capital.
例如，基于太阳能的发电可能会减少燃料采购和库存需求，并可能导致间接费用和营运资本的减少。
In addition, it may enable the utility to more readily provide new or specialized differentiated services to meet specialized customer needs.
此外，它可能使公用事业公司更容易提供新的或专门的差异化服务，以满足专门的客户需求。

It is nearly impossible to evaluate such issues without revised accounting systems, such as activity-based-costing (ABC) which i) map costs to various utility outputs, as opposed to current systems, which view the utility as producing only one generic output-kilowatt-hours, and ii) capture overhead and transactions costs as a function of various technology choices.
这些问题几乎无法在没有修订的会计系统的情况下进行评估，例如基于活动成本核算（ABC），该系统将成本映射到各种效用产出，而不是当前系统将效用视为仅产生一种通用产出-千瓦时，并且捕捉间接费用和交易成本作为各种技术选择的函数。
For example, the planning and execution of large, central-
例如，大型中央计划和执行
station resources entails significant cost-mostly in the form of overheads. Decentralized sources are more incremental in nature thus simplifying the planning process.
车站资源需要大量成本，主要是以间接费用的形式。分散的资源更具增量性质，从而简化了规划过程。
In order to understand this difference one need only examine the process by which local telephone companies upgrade and expand central office equipment; as compared to the planning of a large power plant, these are routine, low-level decisions made on an ongoing basis.
为了理解这种差异，只需考察当地电话公司升级和扩展中央办公设备的过程；与规划一个大型发电厂相比，这些是例行的、低级别的决策，是持续进行的。

Purpose of This Book
本书的目的

Experience in manufacturing suggests that traditional engineering and accountingbased approaches to valuing radical innovations such as the VU are limited in that they fail to consider the full spectrum of benefits that new technologies may yield when fully exploited in a new production process.
制造业经验表明，传统的工程和会计为基础的评估方法对于评估像 VU 这样的激进创新是有限的，因为它们未能考虑到新技术在全新生产过程中充分利用时可能带来的全部益处。
The purpose of this symposium is to identify new areas of research by presenting new academic and practitioner research intended to further our understanding of the strategic, technologically-driven issues confronting the electricity production/distribution process.
本次研讨会的目的是通过展示新的学术和实践研究，来识别电力生产/分配过程中面临的战略和技术驱动问题的新研究领域。
This volume seeks to address a number of specific questions including:
本卷旨在回答一些具体问题，包括：

What models or experience from other industries (such as manufacturing) help us predict or better understand the nature and the ultimate benefits of flexible, decentralized generation under the virtual utility concept?
什么样的模型或其他行业（如制造业）的经验可以帮助我们预测或更好地理解虚拟公用事业概念下灵活、分散发电的性质和最终好处？

In the case of manufacturing, new value concepts were created in order to analytically understand some of the benefits of flexible, computer-integrated process technology including: i) the value of flexibility, ii) the cost quality, iii) the importance of throughput and iv) the value of strategic options.
在制造业的情况下，为了分析性地理解柔性、计算机集成的工艺技术的一些好处，创造了新的价值概念，包括：i）灵活性的价值，ii）成本质量，iii）吞吐量的重要性和 iv）战略选择的价值。
Similar concepts may be needed to value the VU.
可能需要类似的概念来评估 VU 的价值。

What are the information and telecommunications requirements of the virtual utility? Does the VU increase or decrease the amount of central control and information processing needed?
虚拟公用事业的信息和电信要求是什么？虚拟公用事业是否增加或减少了所需的中央控制和信息处理量？
What organizational changes are needed to accommodate and fully exploit new technology under the VU concepts? What capabilities must be developed? Does the virtual utility have the potential of linking minimum-cost production facilities in an efficient manner?
为了适应和充分利用 VU 概念下的新技术，需要进行哪些组织变革？需要开发哪些能力？虚拟公用事业是否有潜力以高效的方式连接最低成本的生产设施？

Experience suggests that new technology cannot be fully exploited absent significant organizational restructuring.
经验表明，如果没有重大的组织重构，新技术无法得到充分利用。
For example: the early 1960's office could not fully exploit word processing, which was originally installed in the office 'typing pool' and perceived simply as a better typewriter.

It took nearly two decades to learn how to fully exploit word-processing technology. This involved significant value changes within the office.
例如：20 世纪 60 年代初的办公室无法充分利用文字处理技术，这项技术最初安装在办公室的“打字池”中，只被视为一种更好的打字机。需要近 20 年的时间才学会如何充分利用文字处理技术。这涉及到办公室内部的重大价值变化。

What performance and other characteristics strategically differentiate flexible generation? What does the set of performance measures look like?
灵活发电在战略上有哪些性能和其他特征的区别？性能指标集是什么样的？

Photovoltaics and other modular technologies are conceived of and valued as simple substitutes for conventional, fossil-fired generation, much as the word-processor was conceived and initially used only as a typewritersubstitute.
光伏和其他模块化技术被构想和评价为传统化石燃料发电的简单替代品，就像文字处理器最初只被构想和使用为打字机的替代品一样。
The early 1960 's office relied on intermediation-secretaries and stenographers. In this environment it was not easy to imagine executives and professionals "keyboarding" themselves and sending messages directly through E-mail.
20 世纪 60 年代初的办公室依赖于中介人员-秘书和速记员。在这种环境下，很难想象高管和专业人士会自己"键盘输入"并直接通过电子邮件发送信息。
Indeed the formality of business communication of the era would have made the notion of E-mail-which affords direct informal access to virtually anyone-almost unimaginable.
事实上，当时商务沟通的正式性几乎让人难以想象电子邮件这种直接非正式地与几乎任何人联系的方式。

In similar fashion, current efforts at valuing flexible generation and other new electricity production concepts conceive and value these in engineering terms, as substitutes for existing generation and distribution systems. This fails to incorporate new capabilities and strategic options that may be afforded by the VU.
同样，目前对灵活发电和其他新的电力生产概念的价值评估都是以工程术语来构思和评估的，将其视为现有发电和配电系统的替代品。这未能纳入 VU 可能提供的新能力和战略选择。

Do existing accounting measurement systems favor traditional, central station technology over renewables?
现有的会计计量系统是否偏向传统的中央发电站技术而不是可再生能源？

Traditional cost-accounting systems, with their focus on direct costs, failed to identify some of the important benefits of new manufacturing process technologies such as computer-aided-design and computer-integratedmanufacturing.
传统的成本会计系统，由于其专注于直接成本，未能识别出一些新的制造工艺技术（如计算机辅助设计和计算机集成制造）的重要好处。
It may therefore be reasonable to presume that utility accounting systems, which were largely designed to insure careful accounting of rate-base additions versus recoverable expenses [see: Awerbuch, Preston and Carayannis in this volume], are inadequate for understanding the ultimate benefits of the VU and its potential for reducing excess capacity, and reserve requirements.
因此，可以合理地假设，公用事业会计系统主要设计用于确保对基础费用增加与可收回费用进行仔细核算[参见：本卷中的 Awerbuch、Preston 和 Carayannis]，对于理解虚拟化设施的最终效益以及其减少过剩产能和储备要求的潜力是不足的。

Can the VU enhance the information-content of electricity thus producing fewer, "smarter" higher-value kilowatt-hours?
VU 能否增强电力的信息内容，从而产生更少但更智能、更高价值的千瓦时？

Peter Drucker argues that global competitiveness in manufacturing has reduced labor and material content while raising the information content of manufactured products which creates greater value for consumers. Is there an analog for the VU?
彼得·德鲁克认为，制造业的全球竞争力降低了劳动力和材料的含量，同时提高了制造产品的信息含量，为消费者创造了更大的价值。VU 是否有类似的情况？

What new capabilities and strategic options, if any, does flexible generation provide especially towards the provision of enhanced or differentiated services?
灵活发电能力提供了哪些新的能力和战略选择，特别是在提供增强或差异化服务方面？
What does the set of distributed benefits look like and how do we value these?
分布式福利的集合是什么样的，我们如何评估这些福利的价值？

A READER'S GUIDE TO THE PAPERS IN THIS VOLUME
本卷论文的读者指南

Part II: Historic and Strategic Perspective:
第二部分：历史和战略视角From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility
从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业

1. Consensus, Confrontation and Control in the American Electric Utility System
美国电力公用事业系统中的共识、对抗和控制

Richard Hirsh sets the historic perspective for the works presented in this volume. His paper explains why the monolithic utility industry of the past can no longer function and why a highly diverse industry with distributed control makes sense.
理查德·赫希为本卷中呈现的作品设定了历史背景。他的论文解释了过去的单一公用事业行业为何无法再运作，以及为何一个高度多样化、分散控制的行业是有意义的。
Hirsh shows that, beginning with Edison and Insull, utility executives were able to manage and control new technologies, successfully incorporating them into the electric production/delivery system. The industry's growth, he finds, has always been tied to control over technology.
赫什表明，从爱迪生和因萨尔开始，公用事业高管能够管理和控制新技术，成功地将其纳入电力生产/传输系统中。他发现，该行业的增长始终与对技术的控制密切相关。
Beginning in the late 1960's, however, utilities began to lose control of new technologies so that for the first time new technology became a threat to the industry: technology made it possible for new suppliers to provide energy at lower costs than the traditional utilities.
从 20 世纪 60 年代末开始，然而，公用事业开始失去对新技术的控制，这是新技术首次对该行业构成威胁：技术使得新供应商能够以比传统公用事业更低的成本提供能源。
This sets the stage for a diverse industry with many participants and stakeholders including independent power producers and environmental activists.
这为一个多元化的行业奠定了基础，参与者和利益相关者包括独立发电厂和环保活动人士。

2. The Virtual Utility: Strategic and Managerial Perspectives
虚拟公用事业：战略和管理视角

The transformation in the utility industry is not dissimilar to changes in other industries as firms move from mass-production to the information age.
公用事业行业的转型与其他行业的变革并无不同，因为企业正从大规模生产转向信息时代。
Andy Vesey argues that traditional utilities (and manufacturers) were mechanical-view organizations that efficiently operated mechanical conversion processes which transformed raw materials into finished products using energy and labor.
安迪·维西认为，传统的公用事业公司（和制造商）是机械观念的组织，它们通过能源和劳动力高效地运作机械转换过程，将原材料转化为成品。
This fundamental process, which was the basis of the mechanical-age firm, is supported by deeply rooted organizational, accounting and management ideas.

这个基本过程是机械时代公司的基础，它得到了根深蒂固的组织、会计和管理理念的支持。

The virtual utility, or indeed any other information-age firm, will be challenged by rapid changes in markets and technology.
虚拟公用事业，或者说任何其他信息时代的公司，都将面临市场和技术的快速变化的挑战。
In this environment information gathering and processing become highly important capabilities and, argues Vesey, firms that can best process and synthesize new information to develop market opportunities will be the "winners." 4 This information environment requires new cognitiveview organizational structures which can capitalize on emerging information and market opportunities.
在这种环境下，信息收集和处理成为非常重要的能力，并且 Vesey 认为，能够最好地处理和综合新信息以开发市场机会的公司将成为“赢家”。这种信息环境需要新的认知视角组织结构，能够利用新兴的信息和市场机会。
Here success is not measured in terms of traditional engineering input-output efficiency, but in terms of the speed and quality of decisionmaking.
在这里，成功不是以传统的工程投入产出效率来衡量，而是以决策的速度和质量来衡量。

3. Being Virtual: Beyond Utility Restructuring and How We Get There
3. 虚拟化：超越实用性重组及其实现方式

A number of rapidly converging trends, including growing global electricity demand, deregulation, dematerialization, the information explosion, environmentalism, population growth and technological innovation are shaping the utility industry's future.
一系列迅速趋于一致的趋势正在塑造公用事业行业的未来，包括全球电力需求的增长、解除管制、物质减少、信息爆炸、环保主义、人口增长和技术创新。
Karl Rabago explores the "convergence zone" of these major trends and finds that "virtualness" is indeed consistent with more innovative, customer focused service which delivers less energy with more information content.
卡尔·拉巴戈探索了这些主要趋势的“融合区域”，并发现“虚拟性”确实与更具创新性、以客户为中心的服务相一致，这种服务通过更多的信息内容提供更少的能源。
Rabago outlines the regulatory agenda for "getting there," which includes: i) proper cost allocation for stranded investment,

ii) restructuring regulatory institutions, iii) addressing the public-goods aspects of the utility system, iv) instituting industry structures that ensure technological progress, and v) addressing market imperfections.
拉巴戈概述了“实现目标”的监管议程，包括：i）为滞留投资进行适当的成本分摊，ii）重组监管机构，iii）解决公共事业系统的公共物品问题，iv）建立确保技术进步的行业结构，v）解决市场不完善问题。

Part III. The Virtual Utility: Planning And Strategic Investment Analysis
第三部分。虚拟公用事业：规划和战略投资分析

This chapter examines the investment valuation procedures used by utilities in light of the recent changes in manufacturing where the industry has moved towards flexible, information based process technology.
本章将在制造业最近的变革中，即行业向灵活、信息化的过程技术转变的背景下，研究公用事业公司所使用的投资估值程序。
American manufacturers, however, were late in adopting new technologies, in part because traditional project valuation analyses generally found that these were not cost effective-a result that, with hindsight, was incorrect.
然而，美国制造商在采用新技术方面较晚，部分原因是传统的项目估值分析通常认为这些技术不具备成本效益，而事后证明这种结果是错误的。
The manufacturing experience therefore offers important lessons regarding the valuation of radically new technological and organizational options in electricity production and delivery.
制造业经验因此对于评估电力生产和供应中的根本性新技术和组织选择提供了重要的教训。

Awerbuch, Preston and Carayannis (APC) observe that traditional project valuation (capital budgeting) tools proved to be relatively useless in helping manufacturers understand the true benefits of new production technologies and processes, in large measure because the valuation tools focus on direct cost savings in labor and materials.
Awerbuch、Preston 和 Carayannis（APC）观察到，传统的项目估值（资本预算）工具在帮助制造商理解新生产技术和流程的真正好处方面相对无用，主要是因为估值工具侧重于劳动力和材料的直接成本节省。
While this cash-flow approach worked reasonably well for the previous half century, new passive, information-based production technologies often do not provide direct cost savings and hence do not lend themselves to this type of valuation.
虽然这种现金流方法在过去的半个世纪里运作得相当不错，但新的被动、信息化的生产技术通常并不直接节省成本，因此不适合这种类型的估值。
Rather, their benefits are in the form of reduced overheads and better quality.
相反，它们的好处体现在降低开销和提高质量方面。
In addition, such technologies usually enhance flexibility by enabling rapid response to fast changing market conditions and customer preferences.
此外，这些技术通常通过快速响应快速变化的市场条件和客户偏好来增强灵活性。
Finally, the new technologies often produce strategic capability options which allow firms to invest in subsequent technologies at a lower cost, or to develop capabilities to serve new market and customers not previously envisioned.
最后，新技术通常会产生战略能力选项，使企业能够以较低成本投资于后续技术，或者开发能力以服务之前未曾设想的新市场和客户。

Raj Aggarwal explicitly incorporates such strategic option values in an enhanced technology valuation model and provides a highly readable and useful review of theoretical issues affecting the valuation of new technology.
Raj Aggarwal 在增强的技术估值模型中明确地纳入了这种战略选择价值，并对影响新技术估值的理论问题进行了高度可读且有用的回顾。
His paper thus gives us an analytic framework for valuing non-traditional benefits.
他的论文为我们提供了一个评估非传统利益的分析框架。
APC, by contrast, argue that such benefits are nearly impossible to measure because traditional cost accounting does not recognize or record the cost (or activity centers) dealing with outputs such as "added capability," "flexibility" or "quality." Indeed new computer based manufacturing technologies were fully understood only after accounting and other concepts were created to explicitly express these benefits.
相比之下，APC 认为这些好处几乎不可能进行衡量，因为传统的成本会计不承认或记录与“增加能力”，“灵活性”或“质量”等输出相关的成本（或活动中心）。事实上，只有在创建用于明确表达这些好处的会计和其他概念之后，人们才完全理解了新的基于计算机的制造技术。
Drawing on these lessons APC and Aggarwal both suggest qualitative approaches and further research to better understand such benefits.
借鉴这些经验，APC 和 Aggarwal 都建议采用定性方法和进一步研究，以更好地理解这些好处。

Part IV. Risk Management, Options and Contracting for a Virtual Utility'
第四部分。风险管理、选择和虚拟公用事业的合同。

6. Integrating Financial and Physical Contracting in Electric Power Markets
在电力市场中整合金融和物理合同

Chitru Fenrnando and Paul Kleindorfer explore a novel aspect of this issue: can new electric options and futures help short and long run decision-making in an open-access transmission grid.
Chitru Fenrnando 和 Paul Kleindorfer 探索了这个问题的一个新颖方面：新的电动选择和未来是否可以帮助开放式传输电网的短期和长期决策。
The VU idea requires that large numbers of power producers be able to access transmission and possibly distribution networks, and that an independent system operator (ISO) will be responsible for ensuring that the network functions properly.
VU 理念要求大量的发电厂能够接入输电和可能的配电网络，并且独立的系统运营商（ISO）将负责确保网络正常运行。
Concurrently, increasing availability of financial options and futures in electricity markets creates new possibilities for managing both short and long term power needs on the grid.
同时，电力市场中金融期权和期货的可获得性增加，为管理电网的短期和长期电力需求创造了新的可能性。
Fernando and Kleindorfer demonstrate that currently conceived structures which charge the ISO with short and longrun responsibilities, have poorly thought-out incentive structures for extending or enhancing the network.
费尔南多和克莱因多夫证明，目前构思的结构将 ISO 赋予短期和长期责任，但对于扩展或增强网络的激励结构考虑不周。
As a result the contemplated market structure will lead to better management or use of existing assets rather than to decisions to improve the network.

因此，拟议的市场结构将导致对现有资产的更好管理或利用，而不是决策改善网络。

7. Capacity Prices in a Competitive Power Market
竞争性电力市场中的容量价格

Frank Graves and James Read Jr. tackle the value of capacity and demonstrate that energy and capacity, which have long been held to be two distinct concepts, are indistinguishable with the availability of well functioning electricity futures and options markets.
弗兰克·格雷夫斯和詹姆斯·里德二世探讨了容量的价值，并证明了能源和容量这两个长期以来被认为是两个不同概念的东西，在电力期货和期权市场正常运作的情况下是无法区分的。
Graves and Read find that the traditional distinction can no longer be sustained since in the new environment a contract for future delivery of power incorporates both a commitment for energy as well as capacity.
格雷夫斯和里德发现，在新环境中，未来交付电力的合同不再能够维持传统的区分，因为它既包含了能源的承诺，也包含了容量的承诺。
Their findings are based on an options valuation approach: they argue that a competitive market implies that capacity must be a derivative asset which provides an option for generating/delivering electricity in the future.
他们的研究结果基于期权估值方法：他们认为竞争市场意味着产能必须是一种衍生资产，为未来发电/输电提供了一个选择权。
It's value, therefore, is a function of the value of the electricity it will produce over its remaining life. The paper, which is accessible to those not familiar with options theory, develops illustrative capacity values under a variety of assumed energy futures.
因此，它的价值取决于其剩余寿命内将产生的电力价值。这篇论文对不熟悉期权理论的人也可理解，通过假设不同的能源未来，展示了容量价值的示例。
Capacity values are shown to vary with energy price volatility and asset remaining life.
容量值显示随能源价格波动和资产剩余寿命而变化。

8. Managing Risk Using Renewable Energy Technologies
使用可再生能源技术管理风险

Tom Hoff and Christy Herig deal with risk, although in a broad sense their paper deals with the issue of whether there is a role for renewables in a competitive, bottom-line driven world.
汤姆·霍夫和克里斯蒂·赫里格处理风险，尽管从广义上讲，他们的论文涉及的问题是可再生能源在竞争激烈、以利润为导向的世界中是否有一席之地。
The paper contributes to the recent literature which argues that renewable technologies posses financial risk characteristic that can enhance a portfolio of generating assets.
该论文对最近的文献做出了贡献，该文献认为可再生技术具有可以增强发电资产组合的金融风险特征。
One approach to risk management therefore, might be to identify various arbitrary (unsystematic) risk factors and deploy technologies that cost-effectively manage such particular risks.
因此，风险管理的一种方法可能是识别各种任意（非系统性）风险因素，并使用成本效益高的技术来管理这些特定风险。
Hoff and Herig examine a number of renewable technologies and develop analytic approaches to estimate their potential value in mitigating diversifiable risk.
霍夫和赫里格研究了许多可再生技术，并开发了分析方法来估计它们在减轻可分散风险方面的潜在价值。

Part V. Industrial Organization, Technological Change and Strategic Response to Deregulation
第五部分：工业组织、技术变革和对放松管制的战略应对

9. Monopoly and Antitrust Policies in Network-based Markets such as Electricity
9. 垄断和反垄断政策在基于网络的市场中的应用，如电力市场。

A number of states are pursuing deregulation strategies. William G. Shepherd uses an industrial organization perspective to assess how quickly regulators should deregulate. His engaging paper offers powerful, yet surprisingly simple and direct policy recommendations.
一些州正在追求放松管制的策略。威廉·G·谢泼德利用产业组织的视角评估监管机构应该以多快的速度进行放松管制。他引人入胜的论文提供了强有力的、令人惊讶的简单直接的政策建议。
Shepherd finds that deregulating too early will simply create an entrenched, dominant single firm: the former regulated utility.
牧羊人发现过早放松管制只会造成一个根深蒂固、占主导地位的单一公司：之前受管制的公用事业公司。
Ironically, therefore, aggressive deregulation which fails to incorporate industrial organization issues can significantly undermine progress towards competition.

Several regulatory issues are embedded in this paper: i) We don't want deregulation that allows incumbents to entrench themselves; ii) Regulators must make sure there are enough players in the generating game and must not allow existing distribution companies to become, by default, the dominant VU's.
具有讽刺意味的是，因此，未能考虑产业组织问题的激进放松管制可能会严重破坏竞争进程。本文中嵌入了几个监管问题：i）我们不希望放松管制使现有企业巩固自身地位；ii）监管机构必须确保发电市场有足够的参与者，并且不能让现有的配电公司默认成为主导的垄断者。
iii) Regulators must assure that the committees that control ISO's do not make decisions in order to simply preserve the value of assets owned by the majority of the committee members.
监管机构必须确保控制国际标准化组织（ISO）的委员会不会仅仅为了保护大多数委员会成员所拥有的资产价值而做出决策。
For example, certain members would benefit if their ISO does not make transmission investments which might bring additional generation into the market.
例如，如果某些成员的 ISO 不进行可能引入额外发电量的输电投资，他们将受益。

10. Services in an Unbundled and Open Electric Services Marketplace
在一个非捆绑和开放的电力服务市场中的服务

A flexible VU-based industry structure most likely requires that services be unbundled so they can be efficiently rebundled for sale based on consumer needs and preferences. The idea is to give consumers choice and to let them decide when and how much bundling they want.
灵活的基于 VU 的行业结构很可能需要将服务解绑，以便根据消费者的需求和偏好进行高效的重新捆绑销售。这个想法是给消费者选择权，让他们决定何时以及需要多少捆绑。
This raises several important policy issues about efficient unbundling/bundling policies. Shmuel Oren and Dennis Ray present a very accessible and interesting analysis of the economics of unbundling.
这引发了关于高效拆分/捆绑政策的几个重要政策问题。Shmuel Oren 和 Dennis Ray 对拆分经济学进行了非常易懂和有趣的分析。
They illustrate the welfare implications and show when bundled goods and services make economic sense for customers with different preferences. Their paper analyzes the circumstances under which monopolists might want to bundle goods into a single product.
他们阐明了福利影响，并展示了在不同偏好的客户中，捆绑销售商品和服务何时在经济上是合理的。他们的论文分析了垄断者可能希望将商品捆绑成一个单一产品的情况。
The approach developed by Oren and Ray can be directly used by public policy makers to test the types of unbundling and rebundling that should be required or encouraged under industry restructuring.
Oren 和 Ray 开发的方法可以直接被公共政策制定者用来测试在行业重组下应该要求或鼓励的解构和重构类型。

11. Technological Change and Industry Structure: Insights from Telecommunications
技术变革和行业结构：来自电信业的见解

Telecommunications deregulation presents an obvious case study for electric utility restructuring. Bridger Mitchell and Peter Spinney present an excellent industrial organization-based analysis that explores the differences and similarities of the two industries.
电信行业的解除管制为电力公用事业重组提供了一个明显的案例研究。Bridger Mitchell 和 Peter Spinney 提出了一个基于产业组织的优秀分析，探讨了这两个行业的差异和相似之处。
Mitchell and Spinney define a number of distinguishing characteristics between the two industries including: product diversity, rates of technological change, geographic barriers to service delivery, entry costs, capital intensity and externalities in order to determine what lessons from telecommunications are applicable.
米切尔和斯皮尼定义了两个行业之间的一些区别特征，包括：产品多样性、技术变化速度、地理服务交付的障碍、进入成本、资本密集度和外部性，以确定从电信业中可以应用的教训。
Generally their findings indicate that: i) technological change affects industry structure; ii) customers accept unbundling/rebundling; iii) Disaggregated or broken-up firms approach the world differently and see markets in new ways which gives rise to new services; iv) cross subsidies ultimately get squeezed out, and v) with technological change certain products and technologies can simultaneously be both substitutes and complements to existing products and technologies,
一般来说，他们的研究结果表明：i）技术变革影响行业结构；ii）客户接受解构/重构；iii）分解或分拆的公司以不同的方式看待世界，并以此产生新的服务；iv）交叉补贴最终被挤压出去；v）在技术变革中，某些产品和技术可以同时作为现有产品和技术的替代品和补充品

Part VI. Network Architecture and Standardization"
第六部分。网络架构和标准化。

12. Interconnected System Operations and Expansion Planning in a Changing Industry: Coordination vs. Competition
在不断变化的行业中，互联系统运营和扩展规划：协调与竞争

Much attention is currently focused on stranded costs, which are estimated in the range of

billion and more. These estimates are all static and accounting based, i.e.: they are the result of comparing current book values to market values based on continued use of assets as they are now being used.
目前，人们对滞留成本非常关注，估计在数十亿甚至更多。这些估计都是静态的、会计基础的，即：它们是通过将当前账面价值与基于目前资产使用情况的市场价值进行比较得出的。
Marija Ilic, Leonard Hyman, Eric Allen, Roberto Cordero and Chien-Ning Yu (IHACY) show that restructuring and competition may drastically alter electric rates and the way in which generating assets are used.
Marija Ilic, Leonard Hyman, Eric Allen, Roberto Cordero 和 Chien-Ning Yu（IHACY）表明，重组和竞争可能会大幅改变电力费率和发电资产的使用方式。
For example, transmission constraints to certain regions (which Mark Reeder calls load-pockets) creates a special need for local generation.
例如，对某些地区的传输限制（马克·里德尔称之为负荷区）会产生对本地发电的特殊需求。
The transmission is lacking in such regions because it is too expensive to site and erect, a situation, IHACY find, that significantly enhances the value of older inefficient assets with higher operating costs.
在这些地区，传输设施不足，因为选址和建设成本太高，这种情况显着提高了旧的低效资产的价值，而这些资产的运营成本更高。
While these assets do not generate at the lowest cost consistent with the marginal-cost principles of economic dispatch, they are extremely valuable in that they can serve as the low-cost method for voltage support and other system enhancements.
尽管这些资产不符合经济调度的边际成本原则，但它们非常有价值，因为它们可以作为低成本的电压支持和其他系统增强的方法。
Extending the results, it may be possible to argue that market-based solutions might be used to substantially mitigate the stranded cost problem.
延伸这些结果，可以认为市场化的解决方案可能被用来大幅减轻滞留成本问题。

IHACY raise some interesting and important questions regarding the effectiveness of reasonable pricing systems in providing appropriate incentives for support services.
IHACY 对于合理定价系统在提供支持服务方面的有效性提出了一些有趣且重要的问题。
The paper forces us to wonder whether it is always possible to rely exclusively on market forces to keep the network running during highly congested periods. The network pricing literature suggests mechanisms for dealing with congestion, etc.
这篇论文让我们不禁思考，在网络高度拥塞的时期，是否总是可以完全依靠市场力量来保持网络运行。网络定价文献提出了处理拥塞等问题的机制。
These are similar to traditional congestion pricing such as setting tolls on a bridge to minimize peak-hour delays. There are some crucial differences however. A properly designed bridge toll will minimize congestion most of the time.
这与传统的交通拥堵收费类似，例如在桥上设置收费以减少高峰时段的延误。然而，有一些关键的区别。一个设计合理的桥梁收费系统将在大部分时间内最大程度地减少交通拥堵。
Occasionally traffic will be higher than expected, but the result is not catastrophic: there is congestion, drivers have to wait in line, but the bridge does not collapse.
偶尔交通流量会超出预期，但结果并不灾难性：会出现拥堵，司机们需要排队等待，但桥梁不会坍塌。
By contrast, IHACY find that relying on such pricing mechanisms to operate the power network is risky: when loads exceed expectations the results may be catastrophic system failure-the bridge may indeed collapse.
相比之下，IHACY 发现依靠这种定价机制来运营电力网络是有风险的：当负荷超出预期时，结果可能是灾难性的系统故障-桥梁确实可能坍塌。

13. Rules of the Road and Electric Traffic Controllers: Making a Virtual Utility Feasible
道路规则和电动交通控制器：使虚拟公用事业成为可能

The VU concept presumes interaction among multiple suppliers and customers all of whom need access to the transmission grid. This raises numerous grid or net- work-related security and other concerns.
VU 概念假设多个供应商和客户之间的互动，他们都需要接入输电网。这引发了许多与电网或网络相关的安全和其他问题。
Fernando Alvarado focuses on the idea that the VU is always dependent on the transmission network. His paper gives us an excellent set of insights into the problems that will be incurred in making the system accessible to a large number of suppliers.
费尔南多·阿尔瓦拉多专注于 VU 始终依赖于传输网络的观点。他的论文为我们提供了一系列关于使系统对大量供应商可访问所面临问题的深入见解。
These concerns range from continuously maintaining system voltage balance under dynamic conditions to avoiding overloads which can quickly cause the system to become unstable and possibly collapse.
这些问题涉及在动态条件下持续维持系统电压平衡，以避免可能导致系统不稳定甚至崩溃的过载情况。
Alvarado's paper gives us the basic systems engineering concepts and develops specific ISO responsibilities in response to particular system interactions for three specific operational time frames: instantaneous, intermediate (short) and long time frame.
阿尔瓦拉多的论文为我们提供了基本的系统工程概念，并针对三个特定的操作时间框架（即瞬时、中间（短期）和长期）对特定系统交互的 ISO 责任进行了详细的发展。
He also shows us how to formally measure and quantify various interactions among virtual utilities and customers; each of these interactions affects system losses and other conditions and thereby has an effect on all users.
他还向我们展示了如何正式地衡量和量化虚拟公共事业和客户之间的各种互动；这些互动中的每一个都会影响系统损耗和其他条件，从而对所有用户产生影响。
The openaccess grid that underlies the VU idea therefore requires solutions to a number of technical and economic problems such as appropriate pricing to properly signal congestion and other grid costs.
开放访问的电网是 VU 理念的基础，因此需要解决一系列技术和经济问题，例如适当的定价以正确传递拥塞和其他电网成本的信号。
Nonetheless, some congestion, somewhere along the grid, will be an ongoing state of affairs. This means that the electricity market will not be homogeneous, but rather, will always have individual sub-market areas at any given time.
然而，无论何时何地，电网中都会存在一些拥堵，这将是一个持续存在的情况。这意味着电力市场不会是均质的，而是在任何给定的时间总是会有个别的子市场区域。
This underscores the need for flexible distributed capabilities.
这凸显了灵活的分布式能力的需求。

Part VII. From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility
第七部分。从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业。

14. The Future Structure of the North American Utility Industry
北美公用事业行业的未来结构

Michael Weiner, Nitin Nohria, Amanda Hickman and Huard Smith (WNHS) provide us with an expert look into a future in which the traditional electricity value chain will be divided among different firms and "value networks." The paper yields a very useful definition of "virtualness." In WNHS's world, energy firms will have to decide on strategies, i.e.: on what sort of business they want to be.
迈克尔·韦纳（Michael Weiner）、尼廷·诺里亚（Nitin Nohria）、阿曼达·希克曼（Amanda Hickman）和休尔德·史密斯（Huard Smith）（WNHS）为我们展示了一个未来的专家视角，即传统的电力价值链将被不同的公司和“价值网络”所分割。这篇论文提供了一个非常有用的“虚拟性”定义。在 WNHS 的世界中，能源公司将不得不决定战略，即决定他们想成为何种类型的企业。
They will have to think in terms of value disciplines and concentrate on what they do best in order to define where they fit in the divided value chain..
他们将不得不考虑价值纪律，并专注于他们最擅长的领域，以确定他们在分割的价值链中的位置。

Part VII: Perspectives
第七部分：观点

The reports of the symposium rapporteurs, Carl Weinberg and Leonard Hyman, raise a number of important points:
研讨会记录员卡尔·温伯格和伦纳德·海曼的报告提出了一些重要观点

Competition will lead to new products via virtual utilities; new generation of customers, familiar with information technologies, will have few problems making energy choices that today seem too complex.
竞争将通过虚拟工具推动新产品的出现；新一代熟悉信息技术的消费者在做出看似过于复杂的能源选择时将面临很少的问题。
Renewable technologies do not stand a chance without VU's.
可再生技术没有 VU 的机会。
The price of energy will decline.
能源价格将下降。
The right solution to the stranded cost problem emerges with the proper pricing of all services.
解决滞留成本问题的正确方法是通过适当定价所有服务。
Regulated pricing will distort transmission issues.
定价管制将扭曲传输问题。

Nashua, NH, June, 1996.
纳舒厄，新罕布什尔州，1996 年 6 月。

REFERENCES 参考文献

Applied Decision Analysis, "The Value of Flexibility and Modularity of Distributed Generation Technologies: Photovoltaics at PG&E's Kerman Substation,” Menlo Park, CA September 1993;
应用决策分析，“分布式发电技术的灵活性和模块化价值：PG&E 的 Kerman 变电站光伏发电”，加利福尼亚州门洛帕克，1993 年 9 月；

Baldwin, Carliss Y. and Kim B. Clark, "Capabilities and Capital Investment: New Perspectives on Capital Budgeting," Working Paper, Cambridge: Harvard Business School, 1991 (#92-004).
鲍德温，卡利斯·Y 和金·B·克拉克，“能力和资本投资：资本预算的新视角”，工作论文，剑桥：哈佛商学院，1991 年（编号 92-004）。

Clark, Kim B. "Investment in New Technology and the Competitive Advantage," in, David Teece (Ed.) The Competitive Challenge, Harper Row (Ballinger Division) 1987.
克拉克，金·B. "对新技术的投资与竞争优势"，收录于大卫·蒂斯（编）《竞争挑战》，哈珀罗（巴林格部）1987 年。

Kaslow, Thomas and Robert Pindyck, "Valuing Flexibility in Utility Planning," The Electricity Journal, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1994, page 60-65.
Kaslow, Thomas 和 Robert Pindyck，“在公用事业规划中评估灵活性”，《电力杂志》，第 7 卷，第 2 期，1994 年，第 60-65 页。

Michael Hammer, "Reengineering Work: Don't Automate, Obliterate," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 68 No. 4 (July-August) 1990.
迈克尔·哈默，《重塑工作：不要自动化，而是彻底改变》，《哈佛商业评论》，第 68 卷第 4 期（1990 年 7-8 月）。

Milgrom, Paul and J. Roberts, "The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology Strategy and Organization," American Economic Review, June 1990, 511-28.
Milgrom, Paul 和 J. Roberts，“现代制造业的经济学：技术战略和组织”，《美国经济评论》，1990 年 6 月，511-28。

Pindyck, Robert, "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 29, 1991, p. 1110-1148.
平迪克，罗伯特，《不可逆性、不确定性和投资》，《经济文献杂志》，第 29 卷，1991 年，第 1110-1148 页。

Trigoris, Lenos, "Real Options and Interactions with Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Autumn, Volume 22, 1993, p. 207.
Trigoris, Lenos，“实物期权与金融灵活性的相互作用”，《财务管理》，1993 年秋季，第 22 卷，第 207 页。

Wenger, Howard and Tom Hoff, "Measuring the Value of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation: Final Results of the Kerman Grid-Support Project," First World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, Waikaloa, Hawaii, December, 1994.
温格，霍华德和汤姆·霍夫，《分布式光伏发电价值的测量：克尔曼电网支持项目的最终结果》，第一届世界光伏能源转换大会，夏威夷瓦伊科洛亚，1994 年 12 月。

Womack, James P., Daniel Jones and Daniel Roos, The Machine that Changed the World: The Story of Lean Production, NY: Harper Perennial, 1991.
《改变世界的机器：精益生产的故事》，作者：詹姆斯·P·沃马克、丹尼尔·琼斯和丹尼尔·鲁斯，纽约：哈珀永恒出版社，1991 年。

Part II 第二部分

Historic and Strategic Perspective: From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility
历史和战略视角：从垄断服务到虚拟公共事业

1

CONSENSUS, CONFRONTATION AND
共识、对抗和

CONTROL IN THE AMERICAN ELECTRIC
美国电力控制

UTILITY SYSTEM: 实用系统

AN INTERPRETATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR
一个解释性框架

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY CONFERENCE
虚拟公用事业会议

Richard F. Hirsh 理查德·F·赫什Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
弗吉尼亚理工大学

Abstract 摘要

The turmoil in today's electric utility system can be understood by examining the changing nature of political and economic power held by various parties.
今天电力公用事业系统的动荡可以通过审视各方所持有的政治和经济权力的变化来理解。
Early in the 20th century, Progressive-era politicians and power company managers came to a consensus that established the structure of the monopoly market and the vertically-integrated industry.
20 世纪初，进步时代的政治家和电力公司经理达成共识，确立了垄断市场和垂直整合产业的结构。
With other stakeholders supporting the broad terms of the consensus, utility managers obtained effective control of the system, including domination over supposedly independent regulatory commissions.
其他利益相关者支持共识的广泛条款，公用事业经理获得了对系统的有效控制，包括对所谓独立监管委员会的控制。
But the stresses of technological stasis, the 1970s energy crisis, and rise of environmentalism challenged this control.
但是技术停滞、1970 年代的能源危机以及环保主义的兴起对这种控制构成了挑战。
By the early 1990s, regulators, legislators, independent power producers, free-market advocates, and environmental organizations gained status as political "elites" who questioned whether the utility consensus still made sense. As
到了 20 世纪 90 年代初，监管机构、立法者、独立发电商、自由市场倡导者和环保组织成为质疑公用事业共识是否仍然合理的政治“精英”。

the newly empowered participants in the utility system jockey for influence, a new consensus appears unlikely.
新掌权的公共事业系统参与者争相争夺影响力，新的共识似乎不太可能出现。

INTRODUCTION 介绍

Today's electric utility system is in turmoil. Once-monopolistic power companies compete against other regulated power utilities and unregulated independent power producers for sales to large customers.
今天的电力公用事业系统处于动荡之中。曾经垄断的电力公司与其他受监管的电力公用事业以及未受监管的独立发电厂商竞争，争夺大客户的销售。
At the same time, energy services firms and other companies offer "negawatts" instead of kilowatts and reduce potential sales from all power suppliers.
同时，能源服务公司和其他公司提供的是“负瓦特”而不是千瓦特，从而减少了所有电力供应商的潜在销售。
To deal with competitive pressures, some utility companies have begun merging with others, while other firms seek to buy parts of deregulated power companies in foreign countries.
为了应对竞争压力，一些公用事业公司已经开始与其他公司合并，而其他公司则寻求购买外国国家的解除管制的电力公司的部分股份。
Meanwhile, imaginative thinkers suggest transforming existing power firms into entities that create alliances with various companies and broker supplies and services from a host of competitive providers.
与此同时，富有想象力的思想家建议将现有的电力公司转变为与各种公司建立联盟，并从众多竞争供应商那里提供供应和服务的实体。
This last approach constitutes the model for the "virtual utility," the subject of this conference.
这种最后的方法构成了“虚拟公用事业”的模型，也是本次会议的主题。

Of course, the utility system has not always seen such flux.

In fact, until the early 1970s, power company managers and their customers enjoyed a happy consensus concerning the industry and market structures of the utility system.

The consensus gave centralized and vertically-integrated, investor-owned utility companies the right to sell power in a non-competitive market-the complete antithesis of the virtual utility model-while requiring them to pass along the benefits of monopoly in the form of low-cost electricity and good service.
当然，公用事业系统并非总是如此变动不居。实际上，直到 20 世纪 70 年代初，电力公司经理和他们的客户对公用事业系统的行业和市场结构都达成了一致共识。这个共识赋予了集中化和垂直整合的投资者拥有的公用事业公司在非竞争市场上销售电力的权利，这与虚拟公用事业模式完全相反，同时要求他们通过低成本电力和良好服务的形式传递垄断的好处。
Customers, on the other hand, accepted the legitimacy of utilities' unusual market status and agreed to pay rates high enough to sustain their financial viability.
然而，顾客们接受了公用事业公司特殊市场地位的合法性，并同意支付足够高的费率以维持其财务可行性。
State legislatures, meanwhile, established regulatory commissions to ensure that utility companies and customers enjoyed the proper exercise of their rights and fulfilled their obligations to each other. For decades, the arrangement appeared to work wonderfully.
州立法机构同时设立了监管委员会，以确保公用事业公司和客户享有适当的权利行使，并履行彼此的义务。几十年来，这种安排似乎运作得非常出色。

This paper provides a broad interpretive framework for the virtual utility conference. It will explain how concepts such as the virtual utility could emerge in a util- ity system that was once characterized by consensus and later by confrontation.
本文为虚拟公用事业会议提供了一个广泛的解释框架。它将解释虚拟公用事业等概念如何在曾经以共识为特征后又以对抗为特征的公用事业系统中出现。
In the first sections, the paper will describe the origin of the utility consensus as the result of negotiations between "elite" representatives of interest groups and politicians.
在第一部分中，本文将描述公共事业共识的起源，即作为利益集团和政治家之间谈判的结果。
It will further detail the means by which power company executives quickly became the controlling parties within the utility system.
它将进一步详述电力公司高管迅速成为公用事业系统的控制方的方式。
Next, the paper will detail how events external to the system, such as the energy crisis and passage of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, combined with the emergence of technological stasis and technological novelties to dethrone utility mangers and set the stage for confrontation among a new set of elites.
接下来，本文将详细介绍系统外部事件，如能源危机和 1978 年公共事业监管政策法案的通过，以及技术停滞和技术新奇性的出现，如何推翻了公用事业经理人的地位，并为新一批精英之间的对抗铺平了道路。
The paper concludes by noting that confrontation still characterizes the system today, with old and new participants seeking to gain control as they debate the new industry and market structures of the utility system.
该论文总结指出，对抗仍然是该系统的特点，旧的和新的参与者在辩论公用事业系统的新行业和市场结构时都在寻求控制权。
The erosion of the former consensus and lack of a replacement creates an environment in which the virtual utility and other novel concepts can gain (and lose) currency.
前期共识的侵蚀和缺乏替代方案的情况下，创造了一个环境，使得虚拟效用和其他新概念可以获得（和失去）流行。

THE UTILITY CONSENSUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT EMERGED
效用共识及其出现的环境

The consensus that established the unusual market structure of the electric utility system emerged during a period of economic and political change at the beginning of the 20th century.
电力公用事业系统的非常规市场结构的共识形成于 20 世纪初经济和政治变革的时期。
Losing influence since the conclusion of the Civil War, Adam Smith's decentralized market system, in which prices established through competition brought the efficient allocation of resources, gave way to a flourishing corporate-based economy.
自内战结束以来，亚当·斯密的分散市场体系逐渐失去影响力，竞争所带来的价格确定方式使资源得到有效配置，为一个繁荣的以企业为基础的经济让路。
Large multi-level companies exploited the power of new communications and transportation technologies to manage production and distribution of quantity-produced goods, thus dominating the formerly prevalent familyowned and operated businesses.
大型多层次公司利用新的通信和运输技术的力量来管理大量生产的商品的生产和分销，从而主导了以前盛行的家族所有和经营的企业。
To deal with overproduction and ruinous price competition, managers of companies merged with former rivals or created trust agreements with them.
为了应对过剩生产和毁灭性的价格竞争，公司经理们与以前的竞争对手合并或与他们达成信托协议。
By 1904, only one percent of companies in the United States controlled nearly half the production of manufactured goods (Eisner 1995, 99). Railroad companies took advantage of similar techniques to enlarge their control over the market.
到 1904 年，美国只有百分之一的公司控制了近一半的制造业生产（艾斯纳，1995 年，99 页）。铁路公司利用类似的技术扩大了对市场的控制。
Though literally the economic "engine" of the post-Civil War economy, the railroad industry became despised by much of the public.
尽管从字面上来说，铁路业是战后经济的“引擎”，但它却被大部分公众所鄙视。
The companies frequently consolidated with erstwhile enemies, discriminated in their pricing among customers, provided often-poor and unsafe service, and cultivated political favoritism and corruption.
这些公司经常与以前的敌人合并，对客户的定价进行歧视，提供常常质量差且不安全的服务，并培养政治偏袒和腐败。

When first established, electric utility companies did not seem to be in the same class as the hated interstate railway conglomerates or their local cousins, the urban streetcar companies.
当电力公司刚刚成立时，它们似乎与令人讨厌的跨州铁路联合公司或其地方表亲——城市有轨电车公司不属于同一类别。
After all, when Thomas Edison established his Pearl Street, New York City power station in 1882, he used direct current at about 110 volts to illuminate lights within a radius of about one mile from generators.
毕竟，当托马斯·爱迪生于 1882 年在纽约市建立他的珍珠街电站时，他使用直流电以约 110 伏特的电压点亮了距离发电机约一英里的范围内的灯光。
Distribution of electricity beyond that radius incurred huge power losses, which suggested an industry structure characterized by a host of small stations scattered about cities com-
分布在该半径之外的电力会产生巨大的能量损失，这表明了一个以许多分散在城市周围的小型发电站为特征的行业结构
peting for customers (some of whom generated power themselves) within restricted circles of service.
在服务的限定范围内争夺客户（其中一些客户自己发电）。

But technological innovation changed the relatively benign character of the electricity supply business.
但是技术创新改变了电力供应业的相对温和性质。
Overcoming the distance limit imposed by direct current, alternating current equipment produced by the Thomson-Houston and Westinghouse companies distributed electricity at high voltage through the use of newly available transformers in the late 1880s and allowed firms to build large, centralized plants that produced power for expansive networks.
通过直流电所施加的距离限制，汤姆森-休斯顿和西屋公司生产的交流电设备在 19 世纪 80 年代末通过新近可用的变压器以高电压分配电力，使企业能够建造大型的集中式发电厂，为广阔的电网提供电力。
The growing use of compact steam turbines as prime movers, replacing bulky and noisy reciprocating steam engines, further encouraged centralization as the new machines offered tremendous economies of scale.
随着紧凑型蒸汽涡轮机作为主动机的使用越来越广泛，取代了笨重嘈杂的往复式蒸汽机，进一步促进了集中化，因为新机器提供了巨大的规模经济。
In other words, as the turbines produced larger capacities of power, the unit cost of electricity declined over a wide range of output.
换句话说，随着涡轮机产生更大的功率容量，电力的单位成本在广泛的产量范围内下降。
Serving as a model for other electrical entrepreneurs, Samuel Insull, the British-born secretary to Edison, embraced steam turbines and alternating current for his small Chicago Edison Company.
作为其他电力企业家的榜样，英国出生的爱迪生秘书塞缪尔·因萨尔为他的芝加哥爱迪生公司采用了蒸汽涡轮机和交流电。
When he took over the firm in 1892, Chicago sported 20 competitive electric supply companies.
1892 年接管该公司时，芝加哥有 20 家竞争的电力供应公司。
By 1907, Insull employed the new technology to consolidate all of them into the renamed "Commonwealth Edison Company" (Insull 1915, 54).
到 1907 年，因萨尔利用新技术将所有公司整合为更名为“康威尔爱迪生公司”（Insull 1915, 54）。

During the "Progressive era" in American politics, a period lasting from about 1896 to the beginning of World War I, the notion of unrestrained and powerful monopoly was attacked on several fronts.
在美国政治的“进步时代”期间，大约从 1896 年持续到第一次世界大战开始，无限制和强大的垄断观念受到了多方面的攻击。
Federal law makers and state legislators dealt with railroads and huge companies-the primary objects of popular scorn-by passing anti-trust laws.
联邦立法者和州立法者通过通过反托拉斯法来处理铁路和大公司-这些是受到普遍鄙视的主要对象。
Congress also passed new laws in the early 1900s to bolster the ineffective Interstate Commerce Commission, created in 1887 to end (in theory) abusive behavior of large railroad companies.
国会还在 20 世纪初通过了新法律，以加强无效的州际商务委员会，该委员会成立于 1887 年，旨在（理论上）制止大型铁路公司的滥用行为。
At the same time, state leaders dissatisfied with the status quo instituted a series of reforms that irrevocably altered the political system. They passed laws for direct election and recall of political candidates (and amended the Constitution to allow direct election of U.S. Senators); they introduced the referendum; and they created regulatory bodies that would control, for the public good, the operation of companies providing essential services.
同时，对现状不满的国家领导人实施了一系列改革，彻底改变了政治体制。他们通过了直接选举和罢免政治候选人的法律（并修宪以允许直选美国参议员）；他们引入了公民投票；他们创建了监管机构，以便为公众利益控制提供基本服务的公司的运营。

To deal with the monopolies that came to call themselves "public utilities," such as urban streetcar companies and electric supply firms, two models of action dominated.
应对自称为“公共事业”的垄断企业，如城市有轨电车公司和电力供应公司，有两种行动模式占主导地位。
One consisted of city ownership and operation of the firms, while the other allowed the companies to remain in private hands with some form of government regulation.
其中一种是由城市拥有并经营这些公司，而另一种则允许公司继续由私人所有，但受到某种形式的政府监管。
Debate over the different models became a policy issue because utility companies appeared unable to operate within the traditional competitive market environment.
辩论不同模式的问题成为一个政策问题，因为公用事业公司似乎无法在传统的竞争市场环境中运作。
These firms required construction of capital-intensive facilities that limited the number of rivals to just a few who could secure financing, while competition among the firms had already led to efforts to bribe officials for franchise rights.
这些公司需要建设资本密集型设施，这限制了能够获得融资的竞争对手数量，而公司之间的竞争已经导致了为了特许经营权而贿赂官员的努力。
To avoid destructive competition that would erode profits by competing firms, moreover, the utilities made efforts to consolidate, gain economies of scale to reduce costs, and increase profits.
为了避免竞争对手之间的破坏性竞争，公用事业公司还努力进行整合，实现规模经济以降低成本并增加利润。
At the same time, academic political economists had been developing the notion throughout the late-19th century that these public service businesses constituted (rightly or wrongly) "natural monopolies"-i.e., that they that could provide services most efficiently and at the lowest cost only if they remained free from competition.
同时，学术政治经济学家们在 19 世纪末开始提出这样的观点，即这些公共服务企业构成（无论对错）“自然垄断”——也就是说，只有在没有竞争的情况下，它们才能以最高效和最低成本提供服务。
Municipal ownership seemed to be an obvious so-
市政所有权似乎是一个显而易见的选择
lution for obtaining the benefits of monopolization without suffering the abuses of a privately-owned monopoly. Indeed, many cities had already established municipal water and gas systems. By 1907, cities already owned more than 1,000 electric networks ("Municipal Electric Systems" 1949, 15-16).
获得垄断的好处而不遭受私人垄断的滥用的解决方案。事实上，许多城市已经建立了市政水和煤气系统。到 1907 年，城市已经拥有 1000 多个电力网络（《市政电力系统》1949 年，15-16 页）。

While government ownership of electric utilities had its advocates, it also had its detractors.
政府对电力公用事业的所有权有其支持者，也有其批评者。
Critics argued that city-run utilities would remain subject to the same corrupt political machines that the reformers hoped to eliminate, while others feared municipal ownership constituted a step toward socialism and the end to free enterprise.
批评者认为，由城市运营的公用事业仍将受到希望消除的腐败政治机器的影响，而其他人则担心市政所有权是迈向社会主义和自由企业终结的一步。
Perhaps the greatest exponents of private ownership were the executives of utility companies themselves. Clearly, their interests lay in maintaining autonomy in operating the power companies, though they also realized that public opinion and politicians viewed monopoly as evil.
或许最坚决支持私有制的人就是公用事业公司的高管们。显然，他们的利益在于保持对电力公司的自主运营，尽管他们也意识到公众舆论和政治家们将垄断视为邪恶。
Consequently, some of the more politically adept "elite" utility leaders understood that they would need to form a consensus between them and powerful progressive politicians on the state level so they could avoid municipalization.
因此，一些更具政治敏锐度的“精英”公用事业领导者意识到，他们需要与强大的进步政治家在州一级形成共识，以避免市政化。
Creation of consensus among elite groups of politicians and representatives of resource-rich special interest groups was becoming more commonplace during the Progressive era, despite the opposite (and popular) view of power being disseminated to the public at large.

The agreement the utility and political elites had in mind would share with their customers the benefits of monopolization (such as lower-cost power arrived at through use of large-scale equipment) in return for legal sanction as non-competitive companies.
在进步时代，政治精英和资源丰富的特殊利益集团的代表之间形成共识变得越来越常见，尽管公众普遍持有相反（且流行）的权力观点。实用和政治精英所考虑的协议将与他们的客户分享垄断的好处（例如通过使用大规模设备实现的低成本电力），作为非竞争性公司的合法认可的回报。

To ensure that the terms of the deal would be fulfilled, some executives advocated regulation by state-created commissions.
为确保交易条款得到履行，一些高管主张由国家创建的委员会进行监管。
The greatest expounder of such an arrangement was Samuel Insull, who as early as 1898 argued that government oversight through regulatory commissions would confer legitimacy to a utility as a monopoly and would end (or at least reduce the number of) calls for municipal takeovers (Insull 1915, 34-47).
最伟大的解释者是塞缪尔·因萨尔，他早在 1898 年就认为，通过监管委员会进行政府监督将使公用事业垄断合法化，并将结束（或至少减少）对市政接管的呼声（因萨尔 1915 年，34-47 页）。
Moreover, Insull observed that regulation would allow utilities to reduce their cost of financing. "Acute competition necessarily frightens the investor," he warned, "and compels corporations to pay a very high price for capital.
此外，Insull 观察到，监管将使公用事业公司能够降低融资成本。他警告说：“激烈的竞争必然会让投资者感到恐惧，并迫使公司为资本支付非常高的价格。”
The competing companies invariably come together, and the interest cost on their product (which is by far the most important part of their cost) is rendered abnormally high, owing partly to duplication of investment and partly to the high price paid for money borrowed during the period of competition." The answer, he suggested, was monopoly control and franchises.
竞争的公司总是走到一起，他们产品的利息成本（这是他们成本中最重要的部分）异常高，部分原因是投资重复，部分原因是在竞争期间借钱的高价。他建议的答案是垄断控制和特许经营权。
"In order to protect the public," Insull noted, "exclusive franchises should be coupled with the conditions of public control, requiring all charges for services fixed by public bodies to be based on cost plus a reasonable profit (Insull 1915, 44-5; McDonald 1964, 114.)." Over the next few years, Insull pressed his views forcefully, and by 1907, the bulk of utility managers viewed regulation by expertly-trained men as the means by which the companies could achieve legal monopoly status and avoid the threat of municipal expropriation.
为了保护公众，英萨尔指出，“独家特许经营权应与公共控制条件相结合，要求公共机构确定的所有服务费用都应基于成本加合理利润（英萨尔 1915 年，44-5；麦克唐纳 1964 年，114）。”在接下来的几年里，英萨尔坚决表达了他的观点，到 1907 年，大部分公用事业经理都认为由经过专业培训的人员进行监管是公司实现合法垄断地位并避免市政征收威胁的手段。

Several Progressive politicians also saw regulation as the means by which a satisfactory arrangement could be devised to deal with utility companies.
一些进步派政治家也认为，通过监管可以制定一种令人满意的安排来处理公用事业公司。
Leery of the municipal corruption he had seen early in his political career, Wisconsin governor Robert La Follette preferred state regulation of public services over city ownership.
对于他在政治生涯早期所见到的市政腐败持怀疑态度，威斯康星州州长罗伯特·拉·福莱特更倾向于州级监管公共服务，而不是城市所有权。
As a first step, he pushed through his state's legislature a bill in 1905 to create the Wisconsin Railroad Commission, which had jurisdiction over rates, schedules, service, construction, and maintenance of the state's railroad companies (Commons 1905, 76-9; Maxwell 1956, 75-7).
作为第一步，他在 1905 年通过了一项法案，成立了威斯康星铁路委员会，该委员会对该州的铁路公司的费率、时刻表、服务、建设和维护具有管辖权（Commons 1905，76-9；Maxwell 1956，75-7）。
Though he had become a U.S. Senator at the end of 1906, La Follette in 1907 still had influence with the state legislature, which extended regulation to electric utility companies in July 1907 (Commons 1907, 221).
虽然他在 1906 年底成为美国参议员，但在 1907 年，拉福莱特仍然对州立法机构有影响力，该机构在 1907 年 7 月将监管范围扩展到电力公用事业公司（Commons 1907, 221）。
Meanwhile, another Progressive politician, Charles Evan Hughes, came to the public's attention because of his investigation of pricing abuses of gas and electric companies in New York City in 1905. Elected governor in 1906, Hughes pushed through legislation, signed in June 1907, creating a strong regulatory body for railway and utility companies (Wesser 1967, 154-69).

Support for regulation came from other elite groups, such as the National Civic Federation, a reform-minded organization whose membership included of a diverse set of corporate heads, labor leaders, lawyers, advocates of public ownership of utilities, and university professors.
与此同时，另一位进步派政治家查尔斯·埃文·休斯因其对 1905 年纽约市燃气和电力公司价格滥用的调查而引起公众关注。休斯在 1906 年当选为州长，推动了立法工作，并于 1907 年 6 月签署了一项法案，为铁路和公用事业公司创建了一个强有力的监管机构（Wesser 1967，154-69）。其他精英团体，如国家市民联盟，也支持监管，该组织是一个改革倾向的组织，其成员包括各种企业领导人、工会领导人、律师、公用事业公有化的倡导者和大学教授。
Soon after Wisconsin and New York created regulatory commissions, other states followed. By 1914, 45 states had established some form of apparatus for regulation utility companies (though not always regulating electric power companies) (Sharfman 1914, 3-5).
威斯康星州和纽约州成立监管委员会后不久，其他州纷纷效仿。到 1914 年，已有 45 个州建立了某种形式的公用事业监管机构（尽管并非总是监管电力公司）（Sharfman 1914, 3-5）。
The regulatory model appeared to have won the day.
监管模式似乎获得了胜利。

BROADENING SUPPORT FOR THE CONSENSUS AND UTILITY MANAGER CONTROL
扩大对共识和实用性管理的支持

Though originally a consensus that established the relationship between utility companies and their customers, other groups of stakeholders broadened the base of support for the agreement as the market structure benefited them as well.
尽管最初是一项旨在建立公用事业公司与客户之间关系的共识，但其他利益相关方群体也扩大了对该协议的支持基础，因为市场结构也使他们受益。
Investment bankers, for example, became party to the consensus as they profited from funneling money into the highly capital-intensive industry.
投资银行家，例如，成为共识的一方，因为他们从将资金注入高资本密集型行业中获利。
They also helped create holding companies, which offered operating firms access to both financial resources and professional management expertise.
他们还帮助创建了控股公司，为经营公司提供了财务资源和专业管理专长的机会。
Other stakeholders included manufacturers of electrical equipment, along with their research and development laboratories, which stood to gain as utility companies expanded and required more advanced technologies.
其他利益相关者包括电气设备制造商及其研发实验室，随着公用事业公司的扩张和对更先进技术的需求增加，他们也将受益。
General Electric Company and Westinghouse, for example, became early suppliers to the growing industry as well as manufacturers of appliances and other end-use equipment. As the utility networks expanded and as customers consumed more power, their businesses flourished.
通用电气公司和西屋公司，例如，成为了这个不断发展的行业的早期供应商，同时也是家电和其他最终使用设备的制造商。随着公用事业网络的扩大和客户对电力的消耗增加，他们的业务蓬勃发展。
And to train utility executives and middle-managers, universities such as MIT and Cornell "enrolled" in the consensus as demand for trained electrical engineers exploded.
为了培训公用事业高管和中层管理人员，麻省理工学院和康奈尔大学等大学“加入”了共识，因为对受过培训的电气工程师的需求激增。
Utility customers in the cities, meanwhile, appeared happy, as the benefits of electrification gave people greater choice (in terms of living conditions and entertainment, for example) and as a culture of electricity emerged that equated lower cost power with material and social progress (Hirsh 1989, 26-35).
与此同时，城市中的公用事业客户似乎很满意，因为电气化带来了更多选择（例如生活条件和娱乐）的好处，并且形成了一个将低成本电力与物质和社会进步等同起来的电力文化。
In other words, a variety of other social groups implicitly supported the terms of the utility consensus.
换句话说，其他各种社会群体暗示地支持了效用共识的条件。
While not participating in creation of the consensus, they saw that their interests could also be served well through operation of a system that the agreement helped establish.
虽然没有参与共识的形成，但他们意识到通过协议所建立的系统的运作也能很好地满足他们的利益。

As support for the consensus broadened, utility managers quickly took effective control. They did so partly because of the absence of leadership demonstrated by other participants involved in the consensus' creation.
随着对共识的支持扩大，公用事业经理们迅速获得了有效的控制权。他们之所以这样做，部分原因是其他参与共识创建的参与者表现出的领导力缺失。
The elite politicians and civic reform groups of the early 20th century, for example, simply became indifferent to utility affairs after the initial fervor of Progressive reform had ended.
20 世纪初的精英政治家和公民改革团体，在进步改革的最初热情过后，对公共事务变得漠不关心。
With their careers and millions of investment dollars at stake, on the other hand, utility managers maintained interest.
然而，考虑到他们的职业和数百万美元的投资，公用事业经理们仍然保持着兴趣。
Moreover, as outside attention flagged, they used extensive public relations propaganda campaigns after World War I to maintain the image that they served their customers' to the best of their abilities.

Under the guise of "education," Samuel Insull and a host of other utility executives distributed information, hired college professors as consultants, and endowed faculty fellowships so the educators would spread the good word about utilities and so they could influence the "coming generations of bankers, lawyers, journalists, legislators, public officials, and the plain, ordinary 'men in the streets.' (Parker 1923, 29)"6 The committees also campaigned against public school textbooks that represented the utility industry in a bad light, and they directed propaganda to authors and publishers.
此外，随着外界的关注减弱，他们在第一次世界大战后进行了大规模的公关宣传活动，以维护他们尽力为客户服务的形象。塞缪尔·因萨尔和其他一大批公用事业高管以“教育”的名义分发信息，聘请大学教授作为顾问，并设立教职奖学金，以便教育工作者能够传播有关公用事业的好消息，并影响“即将到来的银行家、律师、记者、立法者、公职人员和普通的‘街头人’（帕克 1923 年，29 页）”。这些委员会还反对将公用事业行业描绘成负面形象的公立学校教科书，并向作家和出版商传播宣传资料。
They published literature for use in elementary schools and addressed women's groups. As another means to encourage positive feelings toward utilities, they successfully campaigned to sell utility stock to customers (Gruening 1964).
他们出版了供小学使用的文学作品，并向妇女团体发表了讲话。作为鼓励对公用事业产生积极感情的另一种手段，他们成功地向客户推销了公用事业股票（Gruening 1964）。

The growing power of utility managers quickly eclipsed the control exerted by regulators.
公用事业经理的日益增长的权力迅速超过了监管机构的控制。
Fulfilling multiple functions as quasi-legislators, administrators, and judges, state commissioners had a sworn duty to enforce the agreement that supposedly benefited customers and utility companies alike.
履行多重职能，作为准立法者、行政人员和法官，州委员们有着宣誓的责任，执行据说对顾客和公用事业公司都有利的协议。
But beyond this official reason to be supporters of the consensus, regulators generally wanted to retain (and strengthen, if possible) a bureaucratic system that gave them control over elements of society.
但除了这个官方原因成为共识的支持者之外，监管机构通常希望保留（如果可能的话加强）一种让他们对社会各个方面拥有控制权的官僚体系。
Besides seeking financial resources from state legislatures to perform their duties, regulators hoped to augment their place in society by winning the good graces of the press and public.
除了向州立法机构寻求财政资源来履行职责外，监管机构还希望通过赢得媒体和公众的好感来增强他们在社会中的地位。

But by the 1920 s, regulators had already begun to lose the element of prestige and control they enjoyed during the formative years of regulation.
但到了 20 世纪 20 年代，监管机构已经开始失去了在监管形成阶段所享有的威望和控制力。
For one thing, the enthusiasm for reform movements had faded as the Progressive era before World War I turned into the "Roaring Twenties" of the post-war decade.
首先，改革运动的热情已经消退，因为第一次世界大战前的进步时代已经转变为战后十年的“繁荣的二十年代”。
The thriving business activity of the period appeared to please state legislators, who balked at expanding the authority of regulatory commissions. Urban customers also seemed happy as rates declined while their incomes rose (Troxel 1947, 72).

At the same time, state regulators did not perceive the public relations and holding company abuses of utility firms and the need for augmented powers.
该时期蓬勃发展的商业活动似乎让州立法者感到满意，他们对扩大监管委员会的权力感到犹豫不决。城市消费者也似乎很高兴，因为价格下降而收入上升（Troxel 1947, 72）。与此同时，州监管机构没有意识到公共关系和控股公司滥用公用事业公司的问题以及增加权力的需要。
"The decade [of the 1930s] was nearly finished" observed Emory Troxel in his 1947 book on public utility economics, "before both the legislatures and commissions seemed cognizant of holding-company practices, irresponsible issuance of many securities, careless accounting practices, and excessive earnings of many companies (Troxel 1947, 72)." And even if they had been aware of utility problems, state regulatory commissions would have been hard pressed to do much about them given their absence of authority over the interstate activities of holding companies.

"在公共事业经济学的 1947 年著作中，埃默里·特洛克塞尔观察到，几乎在 1930 年代结束之前，立法机构和委员会似乎都没有意识到控股公司的做法、许多证券的不负责任发行、粗心的会计实践以及许多公司的过度盈利（特洛克塞尔 1947 年，72 页）。即使他们意识到了公共事业问题，州监管委员会也很难对此采取行动，因为他们对控股公司的跨州活动没有管辖权。"

The lack of prestige and support for regulators contributed to the loss of whatever real control they exerted within the utility system. But utility company managers could not afford to watch regulation be weakened to the point that it was perceived as being totally ineffective.
监管机构的声望和支持的缺乏导致了他们在公用事业系统内所施加的任何真正控制的丧失。但公用事业公司的管理者不能坐视监管被削弱到被认为完全无效的程度。
After all, the existence of commissions legitimated in the public's eye the industry's special market structure and the standing held by utilities as natural monopolies.
毕竟，委员会的存在在公众眼中合法化了该行业特殊的市场结构，并使公用事业公司作为自然垄断企业的地位得以确立。
Hence, the utility industry and its allies deliberately gave regulators excessive credit in their advertising campaigns for the work commissions performed in providing cheap and reliable electrical service to customers.
因此，公用事业行业及其盟友在他们的广告宣传中故意给予监管机构过多的赞誉，称赞他们在为客户提供廉价可靠的电力服务方面所做的工作。
When contesting the legislation leading to passage of the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935, for example, utility leaders warned that new federal oversight would destroy state regulation and all the advantages, such as low-cost power, that it had already made possible ("Utilities by the Fireside" 1935, 1177; "State Regulation has a Future" 1935, 2670).
例如，在对导致 1935 年公用事业控股公司法通过的立法进行争论时，公用事业领导者警告称，新的联邦监管将摧毁州级监管以及已经实现的诸如低成本电力等所有优势（《炉边公用事业》1935 年，1177 页；《州级监管有未来》1935 年，2670 页）。
Even if regulatory control were largely a fiction, then, it was a fiction needed by utility companies to ensure that legislators would not return to the policy-making arena and upset the system that clearly benefited the power companies.
即使监管控制在很大程度上是虚构的，那也是公用事业公司所需要的虚构，以确保立法者不会重返政策制定领域并扰乱明显有利于电力公司的体系。

Utility managers consolidated their control over the utility system by "capturing" the state regulatory commissions.
公用事业经理通过“控制”国家监管委员会来巩固对公用事业系统的控制。
According to one school of thought, regulators became captured by the interests they supposedly oversaw because of their need to gain political support after the fervor of public outrage subsided.
根据一种观点，监管机构因为在公众愤怒的热情消退后需要获得政治支持而被认为被所谓监管的利益所控制。
Regulators struck an implicit bargain with industry because the legislators and executives who once excitedly worked for regulation became impassive after their success in creating commissions, leaving the industry as the only source of political power.
监管机构与行业达成了一种隐含的交易，因为曾经对监管充满激情的立法者和高管在成功创建委员会后变得冷漠，使得行业成为唯一的政治权力来源。
By giving the utility industry favorable treatment for construction plans, rate-base valuations, and rate reduction requests, which served as a form of competition against other fuels, regulators by the 1920s had already been co-opted, captured, and controlled by utility managers.
通过对公用事业行业的建设计划、资产评估和降低费率请求给予优惠待遇，这种做法在 20 世纪 20 年代已经使监管机构被公用事业经理所利用、控制和掌控，从而形成了对其他燃料的竞争。
Regulators still performed an important function in the utility system, however. Because of their supposed oversight of utility actions, they helped legitimate the industry's market structure-i.e., the special standing held by utilities as natural monopolies.
监管机构在公用事业系统中仍然发挥着重要作用。由于他们对公用事业行动的监督，他们帮助合法化了该行业的市场结构，即公用事业作为自然垄断的特殊地位。

Finally, utility managers retained control and their dominant position by encouraging "conservative" inventions, i.e., creation of new technology that preserves the existing system.
最后，公用事业经理通过鼓励“保守”的发明来保持控制和主导地位，即创造能够保护现有系统的新技术。
As described by Hughes, the electric utility industry made good use of academics and professional inventors in its early years, from 1870 to about 1920, to help create a technological superstructure that remained essentially intact for another 50 years.
正如休斯所描述的那样，电力公用事业行业在其早期的年份（从 1870 年到大约 1920 年）充分利用了学者和专业发明家的才能，帮助创建了一个技术基础结构，这个结构在接下来的 50 年基本保持不变。
As perhaps their greatest achievement, these system builders developed steam turbine-generators, whose incrementally improving efficiencies and scale contributed so much to the industry's productive growth (Hirsh 1989, 40-4).
作为他们最伟大的成就，这些系统构建者开发了蒸汽涡轮发电机，其逐步提高的效率和规模对行业的生产增长做出了巨大贡献（Hirsh 1989, 40-4）。
At the same time, the system's controlling stakeholders-utility managers and their allies in the research and development arms of the manufacturing firms-attempted to stifle radical invention, which often originates outside the system and which might otherwise have initiated competing systems. Utility company managers viewed radical inventions outside this engineering realm as inimical to established financial and intellectual interests.
同时，系统的控制利益相关者-公用事业经理及其在制造公司研发部门的盟友-试图扼杀激进的发明，这些发明通常来自系统外部，否则可能会引发竞争性的系统。公用事业公司经理认为，这个工程领域之外的激进发明对已建立的财务和知识利益是有害的。
Radical inventions would disrupt the technological hegemony managers wielded over the system and would possibly lead to stranded investments-i.e., capital expenditures whose usefulness had passed before they could be fully amortized and bring a satisfactory rate of return.
激进的发明将打破技术霸权管理者对系统的掌控，并可能导致滞留的投资，即在完全摊销和带来满意的回报之前就已经过时的资本支出。
Consequently, the power companies came to rely more heavily on the conservative output of corporate engineers at the big manufacturing firms, who were perhaps more fettered by entrenched ways of seeing problems, than on free-spirited individual inventors (Hughes 1987, 56-62; Hirsh 1989, 26-35).
因此，电力公司更加依赖大型制造公司的企业工程师保守的产出，他们可能受到根深蒂固的问题看待方式的束缚，而不是自由奔放的个人发明家（Hughes 1987, 56-62; Hirsh 1989, 26-35）。

In short, utility managers succeeded in influencing much of the environment in which they operated. They won dominance relatively early in the 20th century over a system that could be considered "closed" by Hughes.
简而言之，公用事业经理在他们运营的环境中取得了很大的影响力。他们在 20 世纪相对早期就在休斯看来可以被视为“封闭”的系统中取得了主导地位。
In other words, managers created a system that effectively no longer felt the outside environment-a situation in which "managers could resort to bureaucracy, routinization, and deskilling to eliminate uncertainty-and freedom (Hughes 1987, 53)." The fact was not lost on the editors of the Electrical World as early as 1921. "The electrical industry," they wrote:
换句话说，管理者创造了一个系统，有效地使外部环境不再感受到——这是一种“管理者可以诉诸于官僚主义、例行公事和技能降低来消除不确定性和自由的情况（休斯 1987 年，53 页）”。这个事实早在 1921 年就没有被《电气世界》的编辑们忽视。“电气行业”，他们写道：

stands in a wonderful position. It has economic stability. It has already, though young in years, gained a scope and volume that indicate a future staggering to the imagination.
它处于一个美妙的位置。它具有经济稳定性。尽管年轻，但已经取得了令人难以想象的范围和规模，预示着一个令人震惊的未来。
It is organized on a high intellectual plane to which the inventive mind, the scientific mind, the engineering mind and the financial mind have contributed the background and the machinery for progress. It has prestige. It has prosperity.
它在高智力层面上组织起来，创造性思维、科学思维、工程思维和财务思维为进步提供了背景和机制。它具有威望。它具有繁荣。
It has strength and power ("The Unique Economic Position of the Electrical Industry” 1921, 1347).
它具有力量和能力（《电气工业的独特经济地位》1921 年，1347 页）。

THE GOLDEN YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR II
二战后的黄金时代

Despite setbacks in the 1930s, when holding company and propaganda abuses spurred Congress to establish restrictions on power company financing and organization, utility managers retained their power and dominance until the 1970s.
尽管在 1930 年代遭遇了挫折，当时控股公司和宣传滥用促使国会对电力公司的融资和组织设立了限制，但公用事业经理们一直保持着他们的权力和主导地位，直到 1970 年代。
They did so partly by encouraging manufacturers to develop conservative inventions-a step that should not be underestimated. Conservative development of steam turbines and generators, for example, brought huge scale economies and cost reductions as the machinery "grew" from

of output in 1905 to

in 1965. At the same time, manufacturers employed new metal alloys and higher-temperature and -pressure steam to increase the thermal efficiency of power plants. Edison's 1882 Pearl Street station converted about

of the energy contained in fuel to electricity, while by 1960 , the best power unit converted about

of raw energy into electricity (Hirsh 1989, 4-5).
他们这样做的部分原因是鼓励制造商开发保守的发明，这一步骤不容小觑。例如，对蒸汽涡轮机和发电机的保守发展带来了巨大的规模经济和成本降低，从 1905 年的

增长到 1965 年的

。与此同时，制造商采用了新的金属合金和更高温度和压力的蒸汽，以提高发电厂的热效率。爱迪生 1882 年的珍珠街电站将燃料中的能量转化为电力的比例约为

，而到 1960 年，最好的发电装置将原始能源转化为电力的比例约为

（Hirsh 1989, 4-5）。
Combined with the use of high-voltage transmission systems and reliability-increasing interconnections between power plants of different companies, beginning during World War I, the use of improved power generation equipment boosted the industry's productivity dramatically.
结合使用高压输电系统和不同公司之间的可靠性增加的电厂互联，从第一次世界大战开始，改进的发电设备的使用大大提高了该行业的生产力。
Between 1899 and 1953, productivity grew

per year, a rate higher than seen in any other American industry (Hirsh 1989, 83 note 6). The greater efficiency in producing and distributing electricity meant that costs-and rates to customers-declined precipitously. In 1892 , residential customers paid about 92 cents per

, in adjusted 1967 terms. That price dropped to 13 cents in 1927, 10 cents in 1937, and 4.6 cents in 1947. By 1967, when rates hit bottom, residential customers paid only 2 cents for the equivalent amount of electricity.
1899 年至 1953 年间，生产力每年增长

，这一速度高于美国任何其他行业（Hirsh 1989, 83 note 6）。在生产和分配电力方面的更高效率意味着成本和向客户收取的费率急剧下降。在 1892 年，按照 1967 年的调整后价格，住宅客户每

支付约 92 美分。这个价格在 1927 年降至 13 美分，1937 年降至 10 美分，1947 年降至 4.6 美分。到 1967 年，费率达到最低点，住宅客户只需支付 2 美分即可获得相同数量的电力。
By lowering prices, utilities stimulated demand, which bounded upward at a

annual growth rate from 1900 to 1920 and at a 7% annual rate from 1920 to 1973 (Hirsh 1989, 82-3 notes 2 and 3).
通过降低价格，公用事业刺激了需求，从 1900 年到 1920 年以及从 1920 年到 1973 年，需求以

年均增长率上升了 7%（Hirsh 1989，82-3 注 2 和 3）。

Power company managers remained in control of the utility system also because they retained support from the traditional backers of the utility consensus.
电力公司的管理者仍然掌控着公用事业系统，因为他们保留了传统支持者对公用事业共识的支持。
Manufacturers and consulting engineers clearly profited as construction of new facilities accelerated, especially after World War II when power companies tried to meet the exploding demand by industrial and residential customers.
制造商和咨询工程师在新设施建设加速时明显获利，尤其是在二战后，电力公司试图满足工业和居民客户不断增长的需求时。
R&D units and manufacturing facilities at GE, Westinghouse, and other suppliers to the utility industry kept busy increasing the scale of power generation equipment and making other advances in associated technology, while consulting engineering and construction firms maintained full work schedules.
GE、Westinghouse 和其他供应公用事业行业的供应商的研发单位和制造设施忙于增加发电设备的规模，并在相关技术方面取得其他进展，而咨询工程和建筑公司保持着充分的工作安排。
And customers clearly appeared to enjoy declining rates, even though they usually compensated for lower prices by consuming more electricity, thus keeping their bills from plunging altogether.
尽管客户通常通过消耗更多的电来抵消价格下降，从而使账单没有完全下降，但他们显然喜欢价格下降的趋势。
At the same time, regulatory commissions luxuriated in a long era after the 1930s of little controversy and relatively easy work.
同时，监管委员会在 20 世纪 30 年代之后的一个漫长时代里享受着少争议和相对轻松的工作。
After all, utilities continued to provide electricity at declining real rates, countering the general trend of increasing costs for other living necessities.
毕竟，公用事业公司继续以逐渐下降的实际费率提供电力，与其他生活必需品成本不断上涨的总体趋势相抵消。
What could be better? As the chairman of the West Virginia commission noted in 1972 , the improving productivity of utility companies "made
什么能比这更好？正如 1972 年西弗吉尼亚委员会主席所指出的，公用事业公司的生产力不断提高
the job of the regulatory commissions the relatively simple one of approving rate reductions (Hallanan 1972, 3)."9
监管委员会的工作相对简单，只是批准降低费率（Hallanan 1972, 3）。

STRESSES OF 1970S 1970 年代的压力

The charmed lives of utility managers did not last forever. Starting in the 1960s, they encountered a series of "stresses" that challenged both the utility system and the executives' control of it.
公用事业经理的幸福生活并没有持续太久。从 1960 年代开始，他们遇到了一系列挑战公用事业系统和高管对其控制的“压力”。
Technological change (or lack thereof) combined with the energy crisis to spur a re-examination of the utility consensus that had appeared to benefit all stakeholders.
技术变革（或其缺乏）与能源危机相结合，促使对曾经看似使所有利益相关者受益的公共事业共识进行重新审视。
As new stakeholders gained political standing, regulators awoke from their decades-long stupor to re-establish their positions as mediators of the consensus or to create new roles as facilitators in the formation of a new consensus.
随着新的利益相关者获得政治地位，监管机构从几十年的沉寂中苏醒过来，重新确立自己作为共识的调解者的地位，或者在形成新共识的过程中创造新的促进者角色。
At the same time, politicians reasserted themselves as policy makers in the system, further diminishing the power held by utility managers. By the end of the 1980s, power company managers found that they had essentially lost control over the utility system.
同时，政治家们重新确立了自己作为系统中的决策者的地位，进一步削弱了公用事业经理所拥有的权力。到了 20 世纪 80 年代末，电力公司经理们发现他们基本上已经失去了对公用事业系统的控制。
Instead of dictating policy, managers constituted one of many parties trying to create a new consensus.
而不是指定政策，经理们只是众多试图建立新共识的一方。
They watched as the monopolistic market structure dissipated and as a host of novel elite powers began negotiating a new industrial organization for the utility system of the 1990s and beyond.
他们目睹了垄断市场结构的消散，以及一系列新的精英力量开始为 1990 年代及以后的公用事业系统谈判新的产业组织。

As the first stress that challenged power executives' authority, the utility industry in the 1960s and 1970s encountered technological "stasis," the apparent end of productivity-enhancing technological improvements.
作为首次挑战权力高管权威的压力，20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代的公用事业行业遭遇了技术“停滞”，即似乎没有能够提高生产力的技术改进。
Thermal efficiency gains in traditional steam-turbine-generator technology seemed to reach a plateau, as metals could not be manufactured that would reliably withstand the higher-temperature and -pressure steam needed to achieve thermodynamic gains.
传统的蒸汽涡轮发电机技术在热效率方面似乎达到了一个平台，因为无法制造出能够可靠承受更高温度和压力的金属，以实现热力学增益所需的蒸汽。
Meanwhile, economies of scale in building power plants appeared to dissipate. Utilities ordered everlarger steam turbine-generators, but after a point-around 600 to

-their complexity and reduced reliability contributed to higher unit costs. The once-hopedfor savior of the industry-nuclear power-also suffered from the effects of technological stasis.
与此同时，建造发电厂的规模经济似乎消失了。公用事业公司订购了越来越大的汽轮发电机组，但在某个点上（大约在 600 到

之间），它们的复杂性和可靠性降低，导致单位成本增加。曾经被寄予厚望的行业救星-核能-也受到技术停滞的影响。
Instead of producing power that was "too cheap to meter," nuclear plants also suffered as unit size increased.
核电厂的问题不仅在于产生的电力“价格低得无法计算”，而且随着单位规模的增加，也遭受了损失。
And with safety concerns intensifying, especially after the 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island unit, nuclear plants grew increasingly complex and expensive, thus adding to - rather than reducing - the cost of ge.ierating electricity.
随着安全问题的加剧，尤其是 1979 年三里岛事故之后，核电站变得越来越复杂和昂贵，从而增加了发电成本，而不是降低。
Because costs of producing power could no longer be brought down, as had occurred for decades, stasis nullified the value of traditional utility practices.
由于生产电力的成本无法再降低，就像几十年来一直发生的那样，停滞使传统的公用事业做法失去了价值。
In particular, it meant that continued use of growth-oriented strategies would no longer yield benefits to all stakeholders (Hirsh, 1989).
特别是，这意味着继续使用以增长为导向的策略将不再给所有利益相关者带来好处（Hirsh，1989 年）。

Next, the energy crises of the 1970s focused attention on the wastefulness of American energy production and consumption.
接下来，20 世纪 70 年代的能源危机引起了对美国能源生产和消费的浪费性的关注。
With long lines at gasoline stations and fuel prices that escalated by several hundred percent in just a few months after the oil embargo of 1973, some Americans realized that growth in electrical consumption-the approach that previously contributed to lower-cost power-had little merit.
随着 1973 年石油禁运后几个月内汽油站排长队，燃油价格上涨了几百个百分点，一些美国人意识到电力消耗的增长-之前降低成本的方法-几乎没有任何价值。
In the political frenzy of the decade, the crisis led to passage of innovative pieces of federal legislation that diminished the control held by utility managers.
在这个政治狂热的十年中，危机导致了创新的联邦立法通过，削弱了公用事业经理的控制力。
Perhaps most important, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978 unintentionally challenged the utility consensus and the market and industry structure of the power business.
也许最重要的是，1978 年的公用事业监管政策法案（PURPA）无意中挑战了公用事业共识以及电力业务的市场和行业结构。
With the stroke of President Carter's pen, vertically-integrated utilities lost their privilege to serve as the monopolistic supplier of power within a region.
随着卡特总统的签字，垂直整合的公用事业失去了在一个地区作为垄断供应商的特权。
Now, a host of small, non-utility companies that produced excess power as part of industrial cogeneration processes-and with thermal efficiencies greater than those attained by utility plants-could sell electricity through the grid created and maintained by power companies.
现在，许多小型非公用事业公司通过工业余热发电过程产生的多余电力，其热效率高于公用事业厂站，可以通过电力公司创建和维护的电网出售电力。
In effect, PURPA deregulated the generating sector of the utility business and invalidated part of the utility consensus.
实际上，PURPA 解除了公用事业业务的发电部门的管制，并使公用事业共识的一部分失效。
Meanwhile, PURPA also motivated technological innovation on small-scale and renewable technologies among people not normally associated with the utility industry.
与此同时，PURPA 还激发了与公用事业行业通常不相关的人们对小型和可再生技术的技术创新。

At the same time that PURPA deregulated part of the utility system, it also empowered state regulators and gave them increased control over events dealing with power companies.
在 PURPA 解除公用事业系统的一部分管制的同时，它也赋予了州监管机构更多的权力，并增加了他们对电力公司事件的控制。
The legislation required commissioners to develop specific arrangements and pricing mechanisms by which non-utility generators would produce and sell their electricity to regulated utility companies.
该立法要求委员会制定具体的安排和定价机制，非公用事业发电厂将通过这些机制向受监管的公用事业公司生产和销售电力。
In some cases, utility managers howled as regulators mandated that the new class of "PURPA producers" earn rates that equaled the highest "avoided costs" incurred by utilities if they had to produce the power themselves.
在某些情况下，公用事业经理们对监管机构强制要求新一类的“PURPA 生产者”获得与公用事业自己发电所产生的最高“避免成本”相等的费率感到不满。
So unpopular were these arrangements that some utilities challenged them-albeit unsuccessfully-in cases brought to the Supreme Court (FERC v. Mississippi 1982; American Paper Institute v. American Electric Power, 1983).
这些安排非常不受欢迎，以至于一些公用事业公司对其提出了挑战，尽管最终未能成功（FERC v. Mississippi 1982; American Paper Institute v. American Electric Power, 1983）。
The cases reflected the unease of power company elites who saw regulators playing new and more active roles after passage of PURPA, a law that appeared to have the dual effects of deregulating and "hyper-regulating" the utility system (Serchuk 1995).
这些案例反映了电力公司精英们的不安，他们看到监管机构在通过 PURPA 法案后扮演了新的、更积极的角色，这个法案似乎既有解除管制的效果，又有“超级监管”公用事业系统的效果（Serchuk 1995）。

As a third stress, the modern environmental movement gained increasing popularity and stridency during the 1970s. Long-established groups such as the Sierra Club railed against excessive consumption of finite energy resources.
作为第三个压力，现代环境运动在 20 世纪 70 年代日益流行和激烈。像塞拉俱乐部这样的长期存在的团体抨击对有限能源资源的过度消耗。
They were joined by groups such as the Environmental Defense Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council, which used the legal system to press their values onto utility managers and other stakeholders.
他们得到了环境保护基金会和自然资源保护委员会等组织的支持，这些组织利用法律系统向公用事业管理者和其他利益相关者施加他们的价值观。
As a result of activities pursued by environmental advocates, formerly counter-culture values of conservation and energy efficiency became incorporated into innovative legislation and regulation that restricted utility managers' pursuit of previously accepted business strategies.
由于环保倡导者的努力，以前的反文化价值观——保护和能源效率——被纳入创新的立法和监管中，限制了公用事业经理人以前接受的商业策略的追求。
Regulatory commissions and legislatures, which had complaisantly approved of utility managers' practices for decades, for example, began harmonizing in the 1980s with environmentalists who argued that conservation techniques could displace the need for constructing expensive new power plants.
监管委员会和立法机构在几十年来一直默认公用事业管理者的做法，例如，从 20 世纪 80 年代开始，他们开始与主张节能技术可以替代建设昂贵的新电厂的环保主义者达成一致。
Regulators, who had been trying un-
监管机构一直在努力
successfully to balance the needs of customers with those of utility companies under the terms of the original consensus, sometimes found these new approaches appealing.
成功地在原始共识的条件下平衡顾客和公用事业公司的需求，有时会发现这些新方法很有吸引力。

ATTEMPTS TO ASSIMILATE INNOVATIONS CONSERVATIVELY: WINDPOWER AND DSM
试图保守地吸收创新：风能和需求侧管理

Throughout this period of stress, utility managers struggled desperately to shape conservatively these frequently interacting policy and technological innovations.
在这段压力时期，公用事业经理们拼命努力地保守地塑造这些频繁互动的政策和技术创新。
While prevailing in some of their attempts until the mid-1990s, the outlook for further success in retaining control is unclear.
在一些尝试中取得了一定的成功，直到 1990 年代中期，然而进一步保持控制的前景并不明确。
At the same time, regulators, environmental advocates, and other players also see an uncertain future as some freemarket notions threaten to undermine their newly acquired authority.

与此同时，监管机构、环保倡导者和其他参与者也看到了一个不确定的未来，因为一些自由市场的观念威胁到了他们新获得的权威。

Attempts to assimilate windpower technology and demand-side management (DSM) exemplify utility managers' efforts to maintain control of a stressed utility system.
试图融合风能技术和需求侧管理（DSM）是公用事业管理者努力维持受压力的公用事业系统控制的例证。
Both windpower and DSM emerged on the scene after the 1973 energy crisis wreaked havoc on the energy infrastructure and as environmental values gained ascendancy in American culture.
在 1973 年的能源危机对能源基础设施造成严重破坏之后，风能和需求侧管理（DSM）开始出现，并且随着环境价值在美国文化中的崛起。
And both were viewed more than skeptically by the utility managers who claimed that these approaches might be useful sometime in the distant future. In the 1970 s, however, they remained visionary and unattractive measures carrying anti-establishment baggage.

Despite this resistance, managers ultimately digested the potentially radical threats, though with various degrees of success.
然而，这两种方法在公用事业经理人中被视为持怀疑态度，他们声称这些方法可能在遥远的未来有用。然而，在 20 世纪 70 年代，它们仍然是具有远见卓识但不受欢迎的措施，带有反建制的包袱。尽管遭到抵制，但经理人最终消化了这些潜在的激进威胁，尽管成功程度不同。

A technology having origins in the tenth-century, windpower flourished in the United States after passage in 1978 of President Carter's National Energy Plan (Serchuk 1995).
风力发电技术起源于十世纪，在 1978 年卡特总统的国家能源计划通过后，在美国蓬勃发展（Serchuk 1995）。
Responding to the economic dislocations caused by the energy crisis, the plan contained several elements supporting windpower.
应对能源危机引起的经济动荡，该计划包含了几个支持风能的要素。
The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act provided unexpectedly strong encouragement to small-scale non-utility generators, while companion legislation offered a variety of tax advantages for renewable energy systems. Under the leadership of Governor Jerry Brown, a spirited crusader of values espoused by the growing environmental movement, the state of California offered windpower advocates further benefits.
公共事业监管政策法案对小型非公用发电厂提供了意外的强烈支持，而附带立法为可再生能源系统提供了各种税收优惠。在杰里·布朗州长的领导下，加利福尼亚州为风能倡导者提供了进一步的好处。
The state's Public 该州的公共

Utility Commission, which had become imbued with environmental values through Brown appointments, encouraged windpower development by requiring utilities to offer lucrative "Standard Offer 4" contracts to PURPA qualified facilities, for example.

Largely as a result of these incentives, the state became host to

of the world's wind powered capacity by the end of the 1980s (Weinberg and Williams, 1990, 147).
公用事业委员会通过布朗的任命而充满环保价值观，例如，要求公用事业公司向 PURPA 合格设施提供有利可图的“标准报价 4”合同，从而鼓励风能发展。正是由于这些激励措施，该州在 1980 年代末成为全球风能容量最大的地区之一（Weinberg 和 Williams，1990 年，147 页）。

Though windpower was sometimes portrayed as a "soft-path" technology (Lovins

that conformed with decentralized and "hippie" lifestyles, utility managers ultimately gained partial control of the potentially destabilizing technology.
尽管风能有时被描绘为一种符合分散和“嬉皮士”生活方式的“软路径”技术（洛文斯），但电力公司管理者最终获得了对这种可能具有破坏性的技术的部分控制。
It is true that PURPA ended utility managers' almost absolute control over new technology introductions by eliminating the barrier to entry in the generation sector.
PURPA 的确通过消除发电部门的准入壁垒，结束了公用事业经理对新技术引入的几乎绝对控制。
But utilities bought power from entrepreneur-owned windfarms just as if they had obtained electricity from their central generating plants or from conventional power sources owned by non-utility companies.
但是，公用事业公司从企业拥有的风力发电厂购买电力，就像他们从自己的中央发电厂或非公用事业公司拥有的传统电力来源购买电力一样。
Since windpower-generated electricity flowed into the California grid, to be transmitted and distributed on utility-owned lines, most customers had no idea that some electrons flowing into their homes had environmentally privileged origins.
自从风力发电的电力流入加利福尼亚电网，并通过公用事业公司的线路传输和分配，大多数客户都不知道流入他们家中的一些电子具有环境特权的来源。
In other words, windpower turned out to be transparent to customers and little different than other forms of power purchased by utilities.
换句话说，风能对客户来说是透明的，与公用事业购买的其他形式的能源几乎没有什么区别。
It became part of the modified, but still relatively traditional, structure in which utilities sold power from large central stations to customers.
它成为了经过改进但仍相对传统的结构的一部分，其中公用事业公司从大型中央电站向客户销售电力。
Windpower, in other words, had been largely co-opted and turned into a conservative innovation by the power elites within the traditional utility industry.
风力发电，换句话说，已经在传统公用事业行业的权力精英中被大量利用并转变为一种保守的创新。

Somewhat less successfully, managers retained control of energy efficiency. Evolving from efforts in the 1960s to "save the earth," energy efficiency became a sophisticated and mainstream business concept by the early 1980s.
在能源效率方面，管理者的控制力稍微弱一些。从 20 世纪 60 年代的"拯救地球"努力发展而来，到 20 世纪 80 年代初，能源效率已经成为一个复杂而主流的商业概念。
It emphasized the value to consumers of energy services, such as heating, lighting, and mechanical motion; previously, many customers viewed electricity as an energy commodity measured in kilowatt-hours.
它强调了对消费者来说能源服务的价值，比如供暖、照明和机械运动；以前，许多客户将电力视为以千瓦时计量的能源商品。
Moreover, energy efficiency won legislative and regulatory support from federal and state governments as part of integrated resource planning efforts.

In the early 1980 s, energy-efficiency programs pursued by utilities earned a new name-"demand-side management." It became part of an arsenal of weapons employed by increasingly activist regulatory commissions for dealing with apparent boondoggles in power-plant construction that caused rates to escalate.
此外，能源效率得到了联邦和州政府的立法和监管支持，作为综合资源规划努力的一部分。在 20 世纪 80 年代初，公用事业公司推行的能源效率计划获得了一个新的名字-"需求侧管理"。它成为越来越活跃的监管委员会应对电厂建设中明显的浪费问题，导致电费上涨的一系列武器之一。
But utility managers still resisted DSM, since it challenged standard practice that had been ingrained in regulatory rate-making procedures, namely that utilities profited only when they sold power.
但是公用事业管理者仍然抵制 DSM，因为它挑战了已经深入扎根于监管定价程序中的标准做法，即只有在售电时公用事业公司才能获利。
Moreover, DSM refuted managers' previouslyheld, though implicit, prerogative to build ever-more power plants at will.
此外，DSM 否认了管理者以往隐含的特权，即随意建造更多的发电厂。
And DSM flatly repudiated cultural norms, built up over almost a century of service, suggesting that greater power consumption led to higher material standards of living.
DSM 坚决否认了几乎一个世纪以来建立起来的文化规范，暗示更高的能源消耗会带来更高的物质生活水平。

Nevertheless, utility managers in some states accepted DSM as a way to mollify interventionist regulators.
然而，一些州的公用事业管理者接受了 DSM 作为缓和干预主义监管机构的方式。
In the late 1980s, utility managers in New England and California began participating in "collaborative processes" with environmental groups to forge DSM programs offering financial incentives to companies that previously had only disincentives to "un-sell" their product.

The transformation emerged as managers realized that regulators would not abate their efforts to push more energy efficiency. Moreover, they recognized that they could gain important benefits by embracing DSM.
在 20 世纪 80 年代末，新英格兰和加利福尼亚的公用事业经理开始与环保组织参与“协作过程”，以制定提供财务激励的 DSM 计划，以前只有不利因素来“取消销售”他们的产品。这种转变是因为经理们意识到监管机构不会减少推动能源效率的努力。此外，他们认识到通过接受 DSM 可以获得重要的好处。
For example, utilities won positive public opinion for developing popular environmental programs-a form of capital that could be spent in other battles with potentially hostile regulators.
例如，公用事业公司因开展受欢迎的环境项目而赢得了公众的积极评价，这种资本可以在与潜在敌对监管机构的其他战斗中使用。
Perhaps most importantly, some critics contend that utility managers used DSM programs to limit competition with non-utility generators on the supply-side of their business.
也许最重要的是，一些批评者认为，公用事业经理利用 DSM 计划来限制与非公用事业发电厂在业务供应方面的竞争。
Since DSM programs displaced the need for new power capacity, utility executives could argue that regulators should reject applications for non-utility generation projects-whether they be alternative or conventional (Morris 1992, 6-9).
由于 DSM 计划取代了对新能源容量的需求，电力公司高管可以主张监管机构应拒绝非公用发电项目的申请，无论是替代能源还是传统能源（Morris 1992, 6-9）。

In other words, utility managers may have used DSM to maintain at least some control over their traditional generation business.
换句话说，公用事业经理可能使用 DSM 来至少在一定程度上控制他们的传统发电业务。
But they paid a price by submitting to what appeared to be increased regulatory oversight of DSM programs while at the same time elevating the stature of environmental advocates.
但是他们付出了代价，因为他们似乎接受了对 DSM 计划的增加监管，并提高了环境倡导者的地位。
Previously dismissed by managers as troublemakers, environmental activists became accepted as potent political forces in some regulatory hearing chambers and in the decisionmaking conference rooms of utility companies.

In this fashion, utility managers digested the potentially radical and system-altering innovation of DSM, though they also empowered other elite participants in the system.

以前被管理者视为麻烦制造者的环保活动人士，如今在一些监管听证会和公用事业公司的决策会议室中被接受为有力的政治力量。以这种方式，公用事业经理们消化了潜在的激进和系统改变的 DSM 创新，尽管他们也赋予了系统中其他精英参与者权力。

RECENT CHALLENGES TO SYSTEM CONTROL
最近对系统控制的挑战

Utility managers may not be so successful in assimilating more recent innovations within the system, however.
公用事业管理者在系统中吸收最新创新可能不太成功。
Unable to control or assimilate the latest technologies, managers may have little say in the industrial organization of the utility system in the future, setting the stage for the competition of novel organizational schemes such as the virtual utility.
无法控制或吸收最新技术，管理者在未来可能对公用事业系统的产业组织几乎没有发言权，为虚拟公用事业等新型组织方案的竞争铺平了道路。

The technological threats attack the former industry and market structures of the utility system from several fronts.
技术威胁从多个方面攻击公用事业系统的旧有行业和市场结构。
First, the development of small-scale generating equipment - of which windpower and gas combustion turbines are two examplescontinues to erode the utility consensus rationale for natural monopoly (and hence the need for regulation).
首先，小型发电设备的发展，其中风力发电和燃气燃烧涡轮机是两个例子，继续削弱公用事业共识对自然垄断的理由（因此需要监管）。
Challenging the logic that legitimated exclusive retail franchises early in the century, the success of small-scale non-utility generating facilities points to the fallacy of the assumption that only monopolistic utility companies could produce power at the lowest resource costs to society.
挑战上世纪早期合法化独家零售特许经营的逻辑，小规模非公用发电设施的成功表明了这样一种假设的错误，即只有垄断的公用事业公司才能以最低的资源成本为社会提供电力。
As recent experience has shown, independent power producers can often generate electricity for considerably less cost and much higher fuel efficiency than utility companies.

The new technologies alone, in other words, may justify abolishing the monopoly market structure of the utility industry.
正如最近的经验所显示的那样，独立发电厂商通常能够以更低的成本和更高的燃料效率发电，而不是公用事业公司。换句话说，仅仅新技术就可能成为废除公用事业行业垄断市场结构的理由。

Perhaps more potentially menacing to utility managers' control over the power system are emerging location-specific residential and commercial generation technologies.
也许对公用事业经理对电力系统的控制更具潜在威胁的是新兴的特定位置的住宅和商业发电技术。
Extremely small-scale electricity production units, such as proton exchange membrane fuel cells and photovoltaics (Williams 1994, 9-12), have the ability to alter fundamentally the relationship between utility and customer-i.e., the existing market structure.
极小规模的电力生产装置，如质子交换膜燃料电池和光伏发电（Williams 1994, 9-12），具有从根本上改变公用事业和客户之间关系的能力，即现有市场结构。
Capable of producing power and selling it to the utility at favorable rates, especially during peak-demand periods, consumers in such a "distributed utility" network may make the traditional one-way production and distribution system obsolete.
能够在高峰期生产电力并以优惠价格出售给公用事业公司的消费者，特别是在这种“分布式公用事业”网络中，可能会使传统的单向生产和分配系统过时。
It may even allow homes and businesses to be disconnected from the grid altogether or connected with neighbors to increase reliability through diversity.
它甚至可以使住宅和企业完全与电网断开连接，或与邻居连接以通过多样性提高可靠性。
Such a scenario becomes more feasible when considering the flourishing of "smart" electronic technologies used for communications, monitoring, energy transfers, and energy efficiency - technologies whose costs are declining exponentially (Newcomb 1994, 36-8).
考虑到用于通信、监测、能量传输和能源效率的“智能”电子技术的蓬勃发展，这种情景变得更加可行。这些技术的成本呈指数级下降（Newcomb 1994, 36-8）。
As described by Carl Weinberg, former manager of research and development for Pacific Gas and Electric Company, the era of "constructed energy" coming out of large power plants that took advantage of supposed economies of scale, may be over.
正如太平洋煤气电力公司研发部前经理卡尔·温伯格所描述的那样，依靠大型发电厂利用所谓的规模经济优势产生的“构建能源”时代可能已经结束。
The new system may be characterized by "manufactured energy" from technologies exploiting economies of mass production rather than economies of scale.
新系统可能以利用大规模生产经济而非规模经济的技术所产生的“制造能源”为特征。
The technologies may continue the trend begun by PURPA producers that makes outmoded the existing (largely) centralized system of electricity generation and distribution.
这些技术可能会延续 PURPA 生产商所开创的趋势，使现有（主要是）集中式的电力发电和分配系统过时。
In short, the use of new technologies by recently empowered actors may erode the rationale for the original utility consensus and the control held by utility managers.
简而言之，最近获得权力的参与者利用新技术可能会削弱原有的效用共识和公用事业管理者所持有的控制力。
And as power company executives lose control, the entrepreneurs who develop these new technologies earn a say in the creation of a new market and industry structure. In other words, they emerge as a new elite group themselves.
随着电力公司高管失去控制权，开发这些新技术的企业家们在新市场和行业结构的创建中获得发言权。换句话说，他们自己成为了一个新的精英群体。

On the regulatory front, the existing utility system is further threatened. Hyperregulation on the state level in the form of mandated DSM programs and set-asides for alternative energy technologies may give way to deregulation.
在监管方面，现有的公用事业系统面临进一步威胁。州级的超级监管形式，如强制性的需求侧管理计划和为替代能源技术设立的预留，可能会让位于去监管化。
The impulse is spurred by positively viewed efforts to deregulate and de-monopolize other businesses, especially those in the telecommunications industry.
冲动是由对其他行业，特别是电信行业进行放松管制和去垄断的积极努力所推动的。
Before 1984 , for example, American Telephone and Telegraph maintained control over a monopolized market structure in a way similar to that of electric utility companies.
1984 年之前，例如，美国电话电报公司以类似于电力公用事业公司的方式维持对垄断市场结构的控制。
Just like power company managers, telephone executives had effectively captured their regulators and had carefully managed conservative inventions so that they could exploit their special market privileges.
就像电力公司的经理一样，电话公司的高管们有效地掌握了他们的监管机构，并且精心管理保守的发明，以便他们能够利用他们特殊的市场特权。
Rapid and radical technological change altered organizational structure of the industry, however. As microwave and satellite transmission of signals eliminated one rationale for natural monopoly, the business that once enjoyed special status became much more competitive.
快速而彻底的技术变革改变了行业的组织结构。然而，随着微波和卫星信号传输消除了自然垄断的一个理由，曾经享有特殊地位的企业变得更加竞争。
At the same time, the products or services it sold became less distinguishable in the marketplace, making business success more dependent on how to innovate, manufacture, package, and sell products and services that deliver true value to customers.
同时，它销售的产品或服务在市场上变得越来越难以区分，这使得企业的成功更加依赖于如何创新、制造、包装和销售能够为客户提供真正价值的产品和服务。

As the idea of deregulation continues to become more fashionable, with telecommunications industry restructuring and the fall of centrally-planned Communist economies serving as motivators,

advocates of the free market are effectively challenging the notion of regulated monopoly franchises.

John Anderson, head of the Electricity Consumers Resources Council (ELCON), an association of large industrial consumers of power, for example, argues persuasively that technological change has eroded the rational for special market arrangements, such as natural monopolies, to allocate society's resources.
随着放松管制的理念越来越流行，电信行业重组和中央计划经济体制的崩溃成为推动力，自由市场的倡导者有效地挑战了受管制的垄断特许经营的观念。例如，大型工业用电消费者协会（ELCON）的负责人约翰·安德森有力地主张，技术变革已经削弱了特殊市场安排（如自然垄断）来分配社会资源的合理性。
The free market, he (and others) argue, can do this job better.
自由市场，他（和其他人）争辩说，可以更好地完成这项工作。
In California, Michigan, and elsewhere, state commissions have responded to high prices and a general dissatisfaction with the exiting utility system by investigating deregulatory schemes that employ competition (through retail wheeling) to industrial and residential customers.
在加利福尼亚、密歇根和其他地方，州委员会对高价格和对现有公用事业系统的普遍不满作出了回应，通过调查采用竞争（通过零售输电）向工业和居民客户提供解除管制的方案。
Cherished by utilities because it erected a formidable barrier to entry against competition while also guaranteeing a sound financial foundation (at least until the 1970s), the retail monopoly franchise may be on the verge of disappearing.
受公用事业公司珍爱的原因是它建立了一道强大的竞争壁垒，同时也保证了稳固的财务基础（至少在 20 世纪 70 年代之前），零售垄断特许经营权可能即将消失。

These technological and regulatory innovations are arriving so quickly and have such force, spurred by continuing impact of industry stresses starting in the 1970s, that utility managers are having trouble digesting them.
这些技术和监管创新以如此之快的速度到来，并且具有如此强大的力量，受到从 20 世纪 70 年代开始的行业压力持续影响，以至于公用事业管理者难以消化它们。
Though most would like to maintain some control over the current system, their chances for success appear poor.
尽管大多数人希望对当前系统保持一定的控制，但他们成功的机会似乎很小。
In an ironic twist, some environmentalists and advocates of renewable power and energy efficiency have taken relatively conservative positions and have allied themselves with utility managers who oppose the idea of retail wheeling because they worry that a competitive market will neglect environmental protection.
在一个讽刺的转折中，一些环保主义者和可再生能源和能源效率的倡导者采取了相对保守的立场，并与反对零售输电的公用事业经理人结盟，因为他们担心竞争市场会忽视环境保护。
After having stimulated so much change themselves, some of these newly empowered activist elites now seek to retain political standing with regulators and legislators so as to achieve their goals.
在自己引发了如此多的变革之后，一些新获得权力的活动家精英现在试图与监管机构和立法者保持政治地位，以实现他们的目标。
While advocating the use of market forces in a few situations, they argue for retention of some regulatory apparatus to preserve environmental gains that would possibly be lost if free-market principles reigned.

Commission-endorsed programs that set aside a certain amount of power capacity for renewable energy technologies and energy-efficiency, for example, provide guarantees (and some would say subsidies ["ESCOs, Environmentalists" 1994, 9]) to advocates of non-traditional resources, and they naturally want to keep those benefits.
在提倡在一些情况下使用市场力量的同时，他们主张保留一些监管机制，以保护可能会在自由市场原则下丧失的环境收益。例如，委员会支持的计划为可再生能源技术和能源效率保留了一定的电力容量，为非传统资源的支持者提供了保证（有人可能会说是补贴）["ESCOs, Environmentalists" 1994, 9]，他们自然希望保留这些好处。
In a largely free-market environment, however, such guarantees would vanish.
在一个主要是自由市场的环境中，这样的保证将会消失。

CONCLUSION 结论

By the early 1990s, the utility consensus created early in the century had been effectively shattered. The monopolistic market structure that the consensus established was challenged on several fronts during the 1980s.
到了 20 世纪 90 年代初，早期形成的公共事业共识已经被有效地打破。在 20 世纪 80 年代，这个共识所建立的垄断市场结构受到了多方面的挑战。
First, implementation of PURPA opened up the generation business to non-utility generators and therefore ended the special privilege the arrangement gave to utilities as the exclusive supplier of power for a region.
首先，PURPA 的实施使非公用事业发电厂商有机会进入发电业务，因此结束了该安排赋予公用事业作为某一地区唯一供电商的特权。
At the same time, the development of small-scale power technologies whose costs declined dramatically during the 1980s suggested that perhaps the original rationale for natural monopoly made less sense than it did early in the century.
与此同时，20 世纪 80 年代成本大幅下降的小型电力技术的发展表明，自然垄断的最初理由可能不如本世纪初那样合理。
After all, the greater efficiency of a single supplier of power constituted one justification for the existence of natural monopoly.
毕竟，单一供应商的高效性构成了自然垄断存在的一个理由。
If wind turbines, gasfired combined cycle turbine-generator sets, and distributed technologies built in tiny increments (compared to the sizes of centralized behemoths) could provide power for less cost, then clearly the rationale for the utility monopolies no longer exists.
如果与中央巨头相比，风力涡轮机、燃气联合循环汽轮发电机组和分布式技术以较小的规模提供更低成本的电力，那么公用事业垄断的理由显然已经不存在。
William W. Berry, President of the Virginia Electric and Power Company, summarized the situation in 1983. "As in so many other regulated monopolies," he observed, "technological developments have overtaken and destroyed the rationale for regulation.
威廉·W·贝瑞，弗吉尼亚电力公司总裁，在 1983 年总结了这种情况。他观察到：“就像许多其他受监管的垄断行业一样，技术发展已经超越并摧毁了监管的理由。”
Electricity generation is no longer a natural monopoly (Berry 1983, 3)."
电力发电不再是自然垄断（Berry 1983, 3）。

The examples of commercial small-scale successes under PURPA also questioned other arguments for maintaining a consensus that gave utilities natural monopoly privileges.
PURPA 下商业小规模成功的例子也对维持给予公用事业公司自然垄断特权的共识提出了质疑。
The high capital expenditures needed to offer service to customers constituted a supposed barrier to entry, for example, which helped justify utilities' non-competitive status.
高额的资本支出需要为客户提供服务，构成了一种所谓的进入壁垒，这有助于证明公用事业的非竞争地位。
But the experience of PURPA demonstrated that such barriers may not be so high after all, at least in the power generation sector.
但 PURPA 的经验表明，这些障碍可能并不那么高，至少在发电行业中是如此。
Entrepreneurial companies, such as the scores of cogenerators and small power producers, successfully raised funds and managed financial risks to build their plants.
创业公司，如众多的热电联产厂商和小型发电厂商，成功筹集资金并管理财务风险来建设他们的工厂。
And they did so without relying on an arrangement that promised sufficient profits, under regulation, to guarantee a power company's financial wherewithal (though they benefited from the existence of ironclad agreements with regulated utilities that, under PURPA, shifted some risk to monopoly ratepayers and shareholders).
他们这样做，并没有依赖于一项承诺足够利润的安排，以确保电力公司的财务实力（尽管他们受益于与受监管的公用事业签订的坚不可摧的协议，根据 PURPA，将一些风险转移给垄断的费率支付者和股东）。
The barrier to entry, therefore, no longer proved to be such an impenetrable barrier after all.
因此，进入门槛并不像之前那样难以逾越。

As the utility consensus shattered, so did power company managers' control over the utility system. Regulatory bodies, for example, constituted a newly rejuvenated elite group that always held a modest amount of infrequently-wielded power.
随着公共事业共识的破裂，电力公司管理者对公共事业系统的控制也随之瓦解。例如，监管机构构成了一个新兴的精英团体，他们始终拥有一定数量的很少使用的权力。
But given greater authority and resources by federal and state legislatures beginning in the 1970s, they took on seriously their role as mediators of the existing consensussomewhat modified by PURPA, of course-partly by adopting values and solutions proposed by environmental groups.
但是，从 1970 年代开始，由于联邦和州立法机构赋予了更大的权力和资源，他们认真履行了作为现有共识的调解者的角色，当然，这种共识在一定程度上受到了 PURPA 的修改，部分原因是采纳了环保组织提出的价值观和解决方案。
A period of hyper-regulation resulted, even at a time when PURPA started the process of deregulating the generation sector of the utility business.
超级监管时期的到来，即使在 PURPA 开始对公用事业业务的发电部门进行去监管的过程中。
Becoming empowered by regulators, these special interest organizations constituted still another elite group that held political and popular support.
成为监管机构赋予权力的这些特殊利益组织，构成了另一个拥有政治和民众支持的精英团体。
At times contesting utility managers' previously-held values about growth, the advocates sometimes joined forces with the executives to argue for retention of some form of regulation.
有时候，倡导者们会与实用管理者对抗之前所持有的关于增长的价值观，有时候他们也会与高管们联合起来，争论保留某种形式的监管。
After all, the newly forceful regulators now championed the environmental cause (to some degree), and the advocacy groups enjoyed the power they held to alter utility policies.
毕竟，新兴的强力监管机构现在支持环境事业（在某种程度上），而倡导组织享受着改变公共事业政策的权力。

But while regulators, utility managers, and environmental leaders may have hoped to retain vestiges of the old utility system, with regulators still playing a significant role, other vocal interest groups sought to destroy the utility consensus further.
但是，尽管监管机构、公用事业管理者和环境领导者可能希望保留旧的公用事业系统的一些痕迹，让监管机构仍然发挥重要作用，但其他有声音的利益集团却希望进一步破坏公用事业共识。
Advocates for complete deregulation and the total employment of free market principles gained status as an elite group by leveraging the changes wrought by PURPA and by riding the wave of deregulation sentiment in other industries.
倡导完全放松管制和全面采用自由市场原则的人士通过利用 PURPA 带来的变革和其他行业中的放松管制情绪的浪潮，获得了精英团体的地位。
Buttressed by academic supporters (such as MIT's Paul Joskow) these deregulation protagonists hoped to benefit their large industrial clients with surplus power generated outside the traditional service area of regulated utilities.
在学术支持者（如麻省理工学院的保罗·乔斯科）的支持下，这些反监管的倡导者希望通过在受监管公用事业传统服务范围之外产生的多余电力来使他们的大型工业客户受益。

The disintegration of the utility consensus and the end of control held by power company managers suggests that the traditional model for the industrial and market structure of the utility system cannot survive.
公用事业共识的瓦解和电力公司管理者掌控权的终结表明，传统的公用事业系统的工业和市场结构模式无法生存。
With radical technological change eliminating scale economies and advantages of centralization, the late 19 th century
随着激进的技术变革消除了规模经济和集中化的优势，19 世纪末
principle of natural monopoly and the progressive faith in expert regulators no longer retain validity or popular support.
自然垄断原则和对专家监管者的渐进信任不再具备有效性或受到普遍支持。
Vertically integrated utility companies that operate as monopolies in protected franchise areas simply make little sense in light of the stream of technological innovations that challenge the fundamental assumptions of that earlier model for utility system organization.
在技术创新不断挑战早期公用事业系统组织模式的基本假设的背景下，垂直整合的公用事业公司在受保护的特许经营区域中作为垄断运营的做法显得毫无意义。

Perhaps the elite players in the utility system are beginning to understand the new free-market nature of power generation and marketing.
或许公用事业系统中的精英玩家们开始理解电力发电和营销的新自由市场性质。
Electricity, which to many consumers for decades was an undifferentiated commodity necessary for business and home use, is now being marketed by some companies in different forms that add special value in certain applications.
电力在几十年来一直是许多消费者所需的商业和家庭使用的不可区分的商品，现在一些公司正在以不同的形式进行市场营销，为特定应用增加特殊价值。
Power is sold to some customers, for example, with high degrees of reliability and power quality.
电力以高度可靠性和电力质量的方式销售给一些客户。
Some companies offer "standard" reliability but also the information and technical know-how to install energy-efficient equipment that would benefit both the customer and the power supplier.
一些公司提供“标准”的可靠性，同时还提供安装节能设备所需的信息和技术知识，这将使客户和电力供应商双方受益。
Perhaps more importantly, many companies have begun forming alliances with others to provide these value-added services to customers.
许多公司已经开始与其他公司建立联盟，为客户提供这些增值服务。
Still-regulated utilities serve as brokers to unregulated power suppliers (which include renewable power producers) while working with energy services companies to provide energy efficiency work within customers' businesses and homes.
仍受监管的公用事业公司充当非受监管电力供应商（包括可再生能源生产商）的经纪人，同时与能源服务公司合作，在客户的企业和住宅中提供能源效率工作。
In short, as the perception of electricity as a differentiated product evolves in this new environment, the variety of participants in the utility system may realize that they need to make alliances with others to provide services.
简而言之，在这个新环境中，随着对电力作为差异化产品的认知的发展，公用事业系统中的参与者可能会意识到他们需要与他人建立联盟来提供服务。
As companies make more of these alliances (and as they shift them), the former industry structure of monopolized and vertically integrated utilities falls further into disrepute.
随着公司越来越多地进行这些联盟（并且随着它们的转变），原来的垄断和垂直整合的公用事业行业结构进一步失去了声誉。
Meanwhile, the concept of a virtual utility-one in which partnerships and joint ventures flourish to add value to customers' use of electricity-grows more acceptable.
与此同时，虚拟公用事业的概念越来越被接受，其中合作伙伴关系和合资企业蓬勃发展，为客户使用电力增加价值。

This new conception of the utility system still has far to go before it becomes universally appealing. Confrontation between elite groups still characterizes the utility system today, with old controllers of power and new ones wrestling for dominance.
这种对公共事业系统的新构想在成为普遍吸引人的之前还有很长的路要走。精英群体之间的对抗仍然是今天公共事业系统的特征，旧的权力掌控者和新的权力掌控者争夺主导地位。
While some elites, such as utility managers, regulators, and environmental advocates, appear willing to give up extreme positions and negotiate a new consensus, others remain adamantly opposed to creation of any institutional framework that impedes the employment of free market principles.
尽管一些精英人士，如公用事业经理、监管机构和环境倡导者，似乎愿意放弃极端立场并就新的共识进行谈判，但其他人仍坚决反对建立任何阻碍自由市场原则应用的机构框架。

The power elite framework proposed in this paper may help explain the turmoil in the utility system. First of all, the system currently is populated by a plethora of what can be considered "elite" groups holding various degrees of power.
本文提出的权力精英框架可能有助于解释公用事业系统中的动荡。首先，该系统目前由众多可以被视为“精英”群体的人组成，他们拥有不同程度的权力。
Because of the stresses of the 1970s and 1980s, utility company executives lost their dominance over the system, ceding power to environmental advocates, regulators, state and federal politicians, and leaders of consumer organizations.
由于 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代的压力，公用事业公司高管失去了对系统的主导地位，将权力让给了环境倡导者、监管机构、州和联邦政治家以及消费者组织的领导者。
The day has long past when utility elites could forge a consensus about market and industry structures simply by dealing with just one or two other groups, such as state politicians and civic advocacy organizations.
过去的日子已经过去了，公用事业精英们只需与一个或两个其他团体打交道，比如州政治家和市民倡导组织，就能够就市场和行业结构达成共识。
The proliferation of these elite groups makes it hard to arrive at any consensus, especially when each one jockeys for position by trying to influence public policy or regulation. Moreover, even within individual groupings, elite representatives rarely speak with one voice.
这些精英团体的增多使得很难达成任何共识，尤其是当每个团体都试图通过影响公共政策或监管来争夺地位时。此外，即使在个别团体内部，精英代表也很少一致发声。
Early in the century, Samuel Insull could be viewed as the pre-eminent spokesman for utility interests, and he strove to develop the original utility consensus with politicians. But today, some
在本世纪初，塞缪尔·因萨尔可以被视为公用事业利益的主要代言人，并努力与政治家们发展起最初的公用事业共识。但是今天，一些
utility executives (especially those with low cost structures) welcome the advent of competition while others shun it. At the same time, even those parties that once supported the former utility consensus have shifted positions.
公用事业高管（尤其是那些成本结构低的）欢迎竞争的到来，而其他人则回避它。与此同时，即使是曾经支持前一种公用事业共识的各方也改变了立场。
While equipment manufacturers such as General Electric still produce machinery for utilities employing the central station paradigm, they also design and sell small-scale gas turbine-generators and other hardware for the increasingly lucrative and competitive independent power market.
虽然像通用电气这样的设备制造商仍然生产用于采用中央站范式的公用事业的机械设备，但他们也设计和销售小型燃气轮机发电机和其他硬件，以满足日益利润丰厚和竞争激烈的独立电力市场的需求。
Finally, customers who once supported the consensus because of continuously declining rates no longer retain monolithic views.
最终，因为不断下降的费率，曾经支持共识的客户不再持有一致的观点。
Groups representing large consumers of power lobby for open competition in the retail markets while small-consumer groups worry that their constituents, having little market power, will be stuck being served by high-cost utility companies.
大型电力消费者组织游说开放竞争的零售市场，而小型消费者组织担心他们的选民，由于市场影响力较小，将被高成本的公用事业公司所服务。
In short, the demographics of power within the utility system no longer are as simple as they once were. A profusion of elites fights to gain supremacy in a high-stakes contest.
简而言之，公用事业系统内权力的人口统计已不再像过去那样简单。大量的精英们争夺在一场高风险的竞争中取得优势地位。
When viewed within this power elite framework, one can understand why no consensus is immediately forthcoming.
在这个权力精英框架内看，人们可以理解为什么没有立即达成共识。

To be sure, some order will ultimately result from the confrontation of interests and ideologies.
毫无疑问，利益和意识形态的对抗最终会带来一些秩序。
New technological opportunities will certainly play a critical role in realizing that order, just as utility executive elites took advantage of technological options early in the century to advocate a consensus that gave them a monopolistic industry structure.
新的技术机遇肯定会在实现这一秩序中发挥关键作用，就像公用事业高管精英们在本世纪初利用技术选择来倡导一种给予他们垄断行业结构的共识一样。
But just because new technologies provide opportunities does not mean that technology will determine the outcome of the current system debate.
但仅仅因为新技术提供了机会，并不意味着技术将决定当前系统辩论的结果。
Because of the nature of the power structure within the utility system, the different actors will view technological opportunities differently-either to enhance their positions or to subvert them.
由于公用事业系统内部权力结构的特性，不同的参与者会以不同的方式看待技术机遇-要么是为了增强自己的地位，要么是为了颠覆它们。
Ultimately, through a socio-political process of negotiation, the parties will have to coalesce around one or another means for producing and distributing electricity.
最终，通过一种社会政治的谈判过程，各方将不得不团结在一种或另一种生产和分配电力的方式上。

But even this conclusion may be too narrowly constrained. Perhaps the politics of electricity interests will be such that no single consensus results from the current debates. Rather, one can imagine a variety of approaches for producing and using electricity.
但是，即使这个结论可能过于狭隘。也许电力利益的政治将是这样的，以至于当前的辩论不会形成单一的共识。相反，可以想象出各种各样的发电和用电方法。
Some customers may rely on central power stations while others may draw power from local sources or from self-generation. After all, why should there be only one "solution" for everyone?
一些客户可能依赖于中央发电站，而其他人可能从当地资源或自发电中获取电力。毕竟，为什么只有一个“解决方案”适用于所有人呢？
Do all people use the same heating and cooling hardware, computer operating systems, or transportation networks? We have come to believe that everyone requires electricity (as a basic "right" almost). But who is to say that everyone must obtain it through the same means?
所有人都使用相同的供暖和冷却设备、计算机操作系统或交通网络吗？我们已经相信每个人都需要电力（几乎是一种基本的“权利”）。但谁能说每个人都必须通过相同的方式获得电力呢？

In short, this study suggests that the politics of power in the electric utility system has become so complex, due in part to technological problems and opportunities, that a single vision of the future may not be possible.
简而言之，这项研究表明，电力公用事业系统中的权力政治变得如此复杂，部分原因是由于技术问题和机遇，以至于可能无法有一个统一的未来愿景。
But perhaps, this is where the notion of the virtual utility may fit into the scheme of things.
但也许，这就是虚拟效用的概念可能适应事物的方案的地方。
The concept of the virtual utility offers the benefits of increased financial flexibility along with the provision of electricity services without depending on the former paradigm of a centralized management and technological system.
虚拟公用事业的概念提供了增加财务灵活性的好处，同时也提供了不依赖于以往的集中管理和技术系统的电力服务。
As a result, companies employing the virtual utility model (once it is more fully developed) may be able to exploit the new small-scale technologies used in a pluralistic and decentralized marketplace to provide electrical services in a way that yields economic and environmental efficiencies.
因此，采用虚拟公用事业模式的公司（一旦它更加完善）可能能够利用在多元化和分散化市场中使用的新的小规模技术，以一种既能产生经济效益又能产生环境效益的方式提供电力服务。
Time, and the efforts of people at this conference who pursue the virtual
时间，以及参加此次会议的追求虚拟的人们的努力
utility concept further, will tell whether this vision of the future will replace the consensus that ruled the utility system for so much of the 20th century.
进一步探讨效用概念，将会告诉我们这个对未来的展望是否会取代在 20 世纪大部分时间里主导公共事业系统的共识。

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2

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY 虚拟公用事业

STRATEGIC AND MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVES:
战略和管理视角

WELCOMING ADDRESS 欢迎辞

Andrew Vesey 安德鲁·维西Entergy Services, Inc. 能源服务公司

ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE-CYCLES AND CHALLENGES
组织的生命周期和挑战

My presentation attempts to provide a brief overview which is intended to put the issues surrounding this Symposium into an organizational context.
我的演讲试图提供一个简要概述，旨在将围绕本次研讨会的问题置于组织背景中。
Fundamentally, what I would like to say is that organizations exist in a certain environment, and that as these environments change, organizations must change as well.
基本上，我想说的是组织存在于特定的环境中，随着这些环境的变化，组织也必须改变。
We've been talking about the external forces that shape these environments, technology, regulation, markets, and economics. It has also been suggested that these forces also become the drivers of change.
我们一直在谈论塑造这些环境的外部力量，包括技术、监管、市场和经济。也有人提出这些力量也成为变革的驱动因素。
For organizations to continue to be successful, they must continually reform themselves. However, experience shows us that as things change, as the balance of forces change, organizations, unfortunately, do not.
为了使组织持续成功，它们必须不断改革自己。然而，经验告诉我们，随着事物的变化，力量的平衡的变化，组织，不幸的是，没有改变。
It has been said that the one thing bred by success is failure, because as we become good at something we tend to continue doing it, regardless of how the environment has changed.
成功所孕育的一件事就是失败，因为当我们在某件事上变得擅长时，我们往往会继续做它，不管环境如何改变。
Now I would argue that there are really only two drivers of change: one is technology and the other isn't, and when we discuss the virtual utility concept as a new business concept for the electric utility industry, we are really talking about organizations and organizational change in response to a shift in the dominant technology paradigm.
现在我要说的是，改变的驱动因素实际上只有两个：一个是技术，另一个不是。当我们讨论虚拟公用事业概念作为电力公用事业行业的新业务概念时，我们实际上是在谈论组织和组织变革，以应对主导技术范式的转变。

I would like to use a framework called the Seven-S or the Happy Atom Framework [** CITE **]; it was presented in Search for Excellence [**Peters, Waterman, In Search of Excellence, Harper & Row, 1982 (pgs 9-11) **] as a means of analyzing organizations.
我想使用一个叫做七 S 或快乐原子框架的框架[**引用**]；它在《追求卓越》[**彼得斯、沃特曼，《追求卓越》，哈珀与罗，1982 年（第 9-11 页）**]中被提出作为分析组织的一种方法。
The framework reflects the thought that organizations, even though they are depicted in terms of hierarchical charts, etc., are actually collections of capabilities or skills which have been created to deliver certain competencies to execute the organizational strategy (Figure 1).
该框架反映了组织的思维，即使它们以层次图等形式呈现，实际上它们是为了执行组织战略而创建的能力或技能的集合（图 1）。
In other words, given the Strategy, an organization has to deliver a series of high-level corporate Skillsthings it must excel at to be successful. The organization itself is broken into five dimensions or "

":
换句话说，根据战略，一个组织必须提供一系列高水平的企业技能，这些技能是它成功所必须擅长的。组织本身被分为五个维度或“

'”：

Figure 1. Organizational Strategy.
图 1. 组织战略。

a. Structure-which is what we think about when we talk about the "wiring diagram" of an organization, how individuals and functions relate to each other;
a. 结构-当我们谈论一个组织的“接线图”时，我们考虑的是个体和功能之间的关系。

b. Systems-which during this symposium we've collectively coined "processes"; that is the way work is done; and information flows;
b. 系统-在本次研讨会上，我们共同创造了“过程”这个词；即工作的方式和信息的流动；

c. Staff-those are the skills that individuals in an organization possess;
员工-这些是组织中个人所拥有的技能；

d. Shared values and style-collectively this is often called the "corporate culture," where shared values are those values which are important in an organization and style is the way management tells its employees what is important.
共享的价值观和风格-通常被称为“企业文化”，共享的价值观是组织中重要的价值观，而风格是管理层告诉员工什么是重要的方式。

I would like to talk about some of the changes we are discussing during the symposium-from the traditional utility to the virtual utility-in terms of these dimensions, so we can begin to identify the things-the new competencies and new capabilities - that these new organizations will have to be particularly good at in order to be successful.
我想谈谈我们在研讨会上讨论的一些变化，从传统的公用事业到虚拟公用事业，从这些方面来看，我们可以开始识别这些新组织特别擅长的事物-新的能力和新的能力-以便取得成功。

MECHANICAL VERSUS COGNITIVE PARADIGMS
机械与认知范式

I have suggested that the real driver of the changes we are facing is technology, and that the big change is the so-called information technology revolution.
我认为我们所面临的变革的真正推动力是技术，而这个巨大的变革就是所谓的信息技术革命。
I see this as a change from the traditional mechanical view of the world in which the value producing processes consisted of the input of raw materials, the performances of mechanics to create end products, to what I call the cognitive paradigm (Figure 2).
我将这视为从传统的机械观世界转变为认知范式的变化，其中价值创造过程包括原材料的输入、机械的表现来创造最终产品（图 2）。
Shimon Awerbuch talked about this-about why accounting is designed to value the output of screw machines but not computers. Traditionally, everything we did was based on a mechanical view of the world, on mechanical processes, but now this is no longer helpful.
Shimon Awerbuch 谈到了这个问题-为什么会计是设计用来评估螺丝机的产出，而不是计算机的产出。传统上，我们所做的一切都基于对世界的机械观点，基于机械过程，但现在这已经不再有帮助了。
The power of technology paradigms can be seen in a shift within the mechanical process itself which occurred when the manufacturing industry was first electrified in the late 1880 's and early 1890 's.
技术范式的力量可以在机械过程本身发生的转变中看到，这种转变发生在 19 世纪 80 年代末和 90 年代初制造业首次电气化时。
Electrification of manufacturing was probably the type of radical architectural innovation being talked about at this symposium [see Awerbuch, et. al.
制造业的电气化可能是在这个研讨会上讨论的那种激进的建筑创新类型。[参见 Awerbuch 等人。]
in this volume]; electricity didn't merely enable industries to do the same things faster and more cheaply; instead, for the first time, it allowed them to rearrange their processes, relocate equipment, change the size of factories, develop whole new manufacturing processes, and improve the quality of the product.
在这个卷中，电力不仅仅使工业能够更快、更便宜地做同样的事情；相反，它首次使它们能够重新安排他们的流程，迁移设备，改变工厂的规模，开发全新的制造过程，并提高产品的质量。
By electrifying, by moving from water or steam power to electricity, firms were able to fundamentally re-engineer or reinvent the work process. Pretty powerful stuff!
通过电气化，通过从水力或蒸汽动力转向电力，企业能够从根本上重新设计或重新发明工作流程。相当强大的东西！
This advancement, as significant as it was, took place in the mechanical paradigm of the raw materials-tasks-products cycle which remains the conceptual basis of everything we do today in the way we measure and even the way we talk; indeed our vocabulary in organizations and businesses is based on this mechanical view of the world.
这一进步虽然重要，但发生在原材料-任务-产品循环的机械范式中，这仍然是我们今天在衡量和甚至交流方式上所做的一切的概念基础；事实上，我们在组织和企业中使用的词汇都基于这种对世界的机械观点。
For example, we still use "efficiency" as the fundamental figure of merit-how much product we made based upon how much raw material and labor comes in the front door.
例如，我们仍然将“效率”作为衡量标准，即根据进入前门的原材料和劳动力量，我们生产了多少产品。
With all else constant, the more efficient firm wins, so, we design our organizations to be very efficient in that mechanical conversion process.
在其他条件不变的情况下，效率更高的公司获胜，因此我们设计我们的组织机构在这个机械转换过程中非常高效。
Imagine how powerful, how significant the innovative power of moving from the mechanical to the cognitive world view might be.
想象一下，从机械世界观转向认知世界观的创新力量有多么强大、重要。

We are now in the information age where, as opposed to automating, we are informating

. Instead of mechanical leverage to eliminate human labor we are using information. Products, for example, have increasingly greater information content.
我们现在处于信息时代，与自动化相反，我们正在进行信息化。我们不再使用机械杠杆来消除人力劳动，而是使用信息。例如，产品的信息内容越来越丰富。
Shimon Awerbuch talked about this: by increasing the information content of generated electricity a "smarter" kilowatt-hour may have more information value than energy value-or-the value of a kilowatt hour may be higher in information than in energy.
通过增加所产生电力的信息内容，Shimon Awerbuch 谈到了这一点：“更智能”的千瓦时可能具有比能量价值更高的信息价值，或者说千瓦时的价值在信息方面可能比能量方面更高。
Thinking about this is difficult, because we don't have the right vocabulary; we don't have the right measures. We are operating in the information age with mechanical paradigm tools.
思考这个问题很困难，因为我们没有正确的词汇；我们没有正确的衡量标准。我们在信息时代使用机械范式的工具。
This is a totally different world view, and when we think about the virtual utility, we have to think about the cognitive paradigm.
这是一个完全不同的世界观，当我们思考虚拟效用时，我们必须思考认知范式。

So a good place to start is, what is the appropriate figure of merit, what is it that we design our organizations to be very good at in the information age, within the cognitive paradigm. I would suggest that we must design for the quality of the decisions made.
所以一个好的起点是，什么是适当的优势指标，我们在信息时代、认知范式内设计我们的组织非常擅长的是什么。我建议我们必须设计决策质量。
The firm is now a decision factory, with a process that converts data to decisions to actions (Figure 2) and we want to measure and talk about and design our organizations to make good decisions.
该公司现在是一个决策工厂，拥有一个将数据转化为决策和行动的过程（图 2），我们希望衡量、讨论和设计我们的组织以做出良好的决策。
Good decisions are a function of two things: the quantity of information we can get our hands on and then the speed at which we process it, i.e.:
好的决策取决于两个因素：我们能够获取的信息数量以及我们处理信息的速度。

Figure 2. Mechanical/Cognitive View
图 2. 机械/认知观点

Mechanical View 机械视图

Cognitive View 认知视角

The answer, of course, is that with all else constant, the organization that can gather more information and process it quicker wins.

答案当然是，在其他条件不变的情况下，能够收集更多信息并更快地处理它的组织获胜。

INFORMATION HIERARCHIES 信息层次结构

What is the information that we need, a quantity of what? It comes in four "buckets":
我们需要的信息是什么，是什么数量？它分为四个“桶”：

Task: information around a specific job operation or function;
任务：关于特定工作操作或功能的信息；
Interdependencies: information concerning intra-organizational, interdepartmental or cross-functional activities. Such dependencies between organizations have been essential in process re-engineering.
相互依赖：涉及组织内部、部门间或跨职能活动的信息。这种组织间的依赖在流程再造中至关重要。
Enterprise: information concerning the goals and objectives of the organization.
企业：有关组织的目标和目标的信息。
World: information concerning external influences such as competitors, suppliers, technology and customers.
世界：有关竞争对手、供应商、技术和客户等外部影响的信息。

When we speak about the speed of processing, we are talking about how quickly an organization can take data from the four buckets and act on it.
当我们谈论处理速度时，我们指的是组织能够多快地从四个桶中获取数据并采取行动。
Figure 3 illustrates the way information is processed in an organization: the top of the organization has the wisdom; the data is at the bottom. The wisdom in most organizations resides with the senior management.
图 3 展示了组织中信息的处理方式：组织的顶层拥有智慧，数据位于底部。大多数组织的智慧都驻扎在高级管理层。
Whenever something happens in the competitive marketplace, information goes all the way up and decisions come all the way down. That is information processing in an organizational context. This takes time, and time is a luxury that competitive firms do not have.
每当竞争市场发生变化时，信息传递至最高层，决策则从最高层下达。这就是组织环境中的信息处理。这需要时间，而时间是竞争企业所不具备的奢侈品。
As a result the important idea in speeding up organizational information processing deals with "de-layering." De-layering is often taken as a code word for work force reduction; as a means to get people out.
因此，加快组织信息处理的重要思想涉及“去层级化”。去层级化通常被视为减少劳动力的代名词；作为让人们离开的手段。
However, you eliminate people not just to lower costs, but to speed up information processing. This is not just de-layering but disintermediating.
然而，你不仅仅是为了降低成本而裁员，而是为了加快信息处理速度。这不仅仅是去层级化，而是去中介化。
An important implication for the virtual utility, therefore, or for any organization that is going to play in the information age, is to flatten and streamline the organizational structure.
对于虚拟实用程序或任何将在信息时代中发挥作用的组织来说，一个重要的含义是要扁平化和简化组织结构。

The power of this new organization will stem from having the four buckets of information in the hands of people best able to act on it, and act on it quickly.
这个新组织的力量将源自于将四个信息桶交到最能够迅速采取行动的人手中。
We hear the term "mass customization:" imagine working on an assembly line and knowing exactly which customer will get a particular product and what that customer will do with it.
我们听到过“大规模定制”的术语：想象一下在流水线上工作，准确地知道哪个客户会得到特定的产品，以及该客户会如何使用它。
Imagine that worker knowing what that customer's individual needs were, and being able, on the assembly line, to customize that product to that customer.
想象一下，工人知道顾客的个别需求，并且能够在生产线上根据顾客的需求定制产品。

The issue then is: where is the needed information within the organization? We use the term "empowerment" frequently; we have all heard it. Many of us are probably in organizations that practice it: that "empower" employees. Why?
问题是：组织内的所需信息在哪里？我们经常使用“授权”这个词；我们都听说过它。我们中的许多人可能在实践“授权”员工的组织中。为什么？
because those employees have all the task information; increasingly managers say: "They know their job better than I do, so let them make those decisions." Imagine how powerful a competitor your firm would be if your employees had information from all the buckets...not just the task bucket.
因为那些员工拥有所有的任务信息；越来越多的经理说：“他们比我更了解自己的工作，所以让他们做出那些决策。”想象一下，如果你的员工拥有来自所有领域的信息，而不仅仅是任务领域，你的公司将会是一个多么强大的竞争对手。
Empowering employee means driving this information down the firm, which should suggest to us that our new organizations should be structured to get as much information down as far as possible.
赋予员工权力意味着将这些信息传递给公司内部，这应该提示我们，我们的新组织应该被构建成尽可能多地将信息传递给底层员工。

ORGANIZATIONAL ATTRIBUTES IN THE MECHANICAL AND COGNITIVE PARADIGMS
机械和认知范式中的组织属性

We hear about organizations built on convergent knowledge networks. That is what speeding up information processing is all about. This brings us to another one of the "S's" I wanted to talk about: Structure. What are the implications of the changing
我们听说过建立在收敛知识网络上的组织。这就是加快信息处理的全部意义。这让我们想到了我想要谈论的另一个“S”：结构。这种变化的影响是什么？
paradigms of organizational structure and how do they relate to the change from the mechanical-based to the cognitive based process? Figure 4 examines organizational attributes as the firm changes from the mechanical to the cognitive paradigm.
组织结构的范式是什么，它们与从基于机械的过程转变为基于认知的过程有什么关系？图 4 研究了企业从机械范式转变为认知范式时的组织属性。
Clearly organizations adopted particular attributes to accommodate the mechanical view: to support the processing and conversion of raw materials into products.
显然，组织采用了特定的属性来适应机械观点：支持将原材料加工和转化为产品。
The attributes are not necessarily bad-they are bureaucratic; they form a cumbersome chain of command, but all of this may have been appropriate for what the organization was trying to do in the environment in which it was operating, and for the environment it was operating in.
这些属性不一定是坏的，它们是官僚主义的；它们构成了一条繁琐的指挥链，但所有这些可能都适合组织在其运营环境中所尝试的事情，以及它所运营的环境。

Figure 3. Hierarchy of Information: Organization Segmentation
图 3. 信息层次结构：组织分割

But now we are making a giant leap to the cognitive paradigm, and there are a lot of new words and concepts, although these are already familiar, e.g.: global approach-markets are now global. In a mechanical world they were local because they dealt with local resources.
但现在我们正在迈向认知范式，有很多新的词汇和概念，尽管这些已经很熟悉，例如：全球化的方法-市场现在是全球化的。在机械化的世界中，它们是局部的，因为它们处理的是局部资源。
In the information age, they are global.
在信息时代，它们是全球的。
Flexibility and speed, cultural diversity-when a person's contribution to the workplace is information, the diversity of experience and background become critically important, not because it is politically correct, but because it is important to competitiveness.
灵活性和速度，文化多样性-当一个人对工作场所的贡献是信息时，经验和背景的多样性变得至关重要，不是因为政治正确，而是因为对竞争力至关重要。

The culture issues are also indicative of the magnitude of the needed changes. Let's examine the words: learning, collaborative, facilitative management approaches in place of bureaucratic command structures; shared accountability in
文化问题也表明了所需变革的重要性。让我们来看看这些词：学习、合作、促进性管理方法取代官僚命令结构；共同承担责任。
place of the parental management of the mechanical world. These are the cultural issues surrounding the new information age organization.

机械世界的父母管理之地。这些是围绕新的信息时代组织的文化问题。

Figure 4. Attributes of Organizational Paradigms.
图 4. 组织范式的属性。

Attribute		Paradigm
	Mechanical	Cognitive
Socio-Economic Environment
Environment	regional	global
Strength	efficiency	flexibility & speed
Demographics	assimilation	cultural diversity
Power, Planning & Purpose
Governance	chain-of-command	self-management
Planning	operational	strategic
Power	hierarchical	value added
Organizational Focus	scientific management	competitive advantage
Task Design	simple & sequential	concurrent
Organizational Culture & Leadership
Culture	bureaucratic	learning
Interaction	command roles	collaborative
Management Approach	systematic	facilitative
Management/Worker Relationship	parental	shared accountability

LEVERS FOR PROCESS INNOVATION
过程创新的杠杆

Let me now turn to the systems or process aspect of change, an aspect which centers on the concept of "informating." The central issue here is how to use information to improve systems and processes.
让我现在转向变革的系统或过程方面，这个方面集中在“信息化”概念上。这里的核心问题是如何利用信息来改进系统和过程。
Figure 5 lists several levers or actions [Process Innovation-Reengineering Work through Information Technology: Thomas H. Davenport, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA,.
图 5 列出了几个杠杆或行动[通过信息技术重塑工作的流程创新：托马斯·H·达文波特，哈佛商学院出版社，马萨诸塞州波士顿市。
1993, Page 51] to enhance existing processes in the virtual utility or any other new cognitive-view utility com- peting in the information age.
1993 年，第 51 页]为了增强虚拟公用事业中现有的流程，或者在信息时代中与任何其他新的认知视角公用事业竞争。
The levers (Figure 5) have direct implications for the virtual utility: automational, informational, sequential, tracking, analytical, geographical, integrative, intellectual and disintermediating; we heard about this last one yesterday.
杠杆（图 5）对虚拟效用有直接影响：自动化、信息化、顺序化、跟踪、分析、地理、整合、智能和去中介化；我们昨天听说过最后一个。
Shimon Awerbuch used the term in relation to the introduction of word processing which essentially eliminated the traditional secretarial role and other intermediaries from the written communication process.
Shimon Awerbuch 在提到引入文字处理时使用了这个术语，这实质上消除了传统秘书角色和其他中介在书面沟通过程中的作用。
These levers will be discussed again when we look at the behavioral style or processes that will be needed in a virtual utility system.
当我们讨论虚拟公共事业系统中所需的行为风格或流程时，这些杠杆将再次被讨论。

Figure 5. Levers for Process Innovation.
图 5. 流程创新的杠杆。

Impact 影响

Automational 自动化的

Informationa 信息

Sequential 连续的

Tracking 追踪

Analytical 分析的

Geographical 地理的

Integrative 综合的

Intellectual 智力的

Disintermediating 去中介化

Explanation 解释

Eliminating human labor from a process.
消除人力从一个过程中。

Capturing process information for purposes of understanding.
捕获过程信息以便理解。

Changing process sequence, or enabling parallelism.
改变流程顺序，或启用并行处理。

Closely monitoring process status and objects.
密切监控过程状态和对象。

Improving analysis of information and decision making.
提高信息分析和决策能力。

Coordinating processes across distances.
协调跨越距离的过程。

Coordination between tasks and processes.
任务和流程之间的协调。

Capturing and distributing intellectual assets.
捕捉和分发知识资产。

Eliminating intermediaries from a process.
从一个过程中消除中间人。

SKILL SHIFTS 技能转变

The cognitive paradigm requires us, as individual employees, to undergo what is generally a skill-shift from traditional quantitatively-oriented decision skills to a more qualitative, open ended set of skills suited to the information age.
认知范式要求我们作为个体员工，从传统的定量决策技能转变为更适应信息时代的定性、开放性技能。
My sense is that employees who will succeed in the organizational environment of the cognitive paradigm we are discussing are going to be skilled at synthesizing, extracting meaning, dealing with open open-end questions and uncertainty of all sorts (Figure

.
我觉得，在我们讨论的认知范式的组织环境中，能够成功的员工将擅长综合、提取意义，处理各种开放性问题和不确定性。

Underlying this skill-set are some important ideas which distinguish the behaviors and style of individuals who succeed in the traditional mechanical-oriented world as compared to those individuals whose skills will be needed for sound deci-
在这个技能集的基础上，有一些重要的观念，区分了在传统的机械导向世界中取得成功的个人的行为和风格，与那些需要做出明智决策的个人的技能
sion-making in the cognitive world. For example, using a Meyers-Briggs

approach to assessing personality, my experience suggests that most good policy makers and managers in the utility industry today are introverted, sensing, thinking, judgmental types.
认知世界中的决策。例如，使用迈尔斯-布里格斯的方法来评估个性，我的经验表明，今天公用事业行业中大多数优秀的决策者和管理者都是内向、感知、思考、判断的类型。
There are no negative connotations to this; it is merely a classification of preferred behaviors.
这没有任何负面含义；它只是对偏好行为的分类。

Figure 6. Skills Shift.
图 6. 技能转变。

Quantitative 定量的

Amount 数量

Measure 措施

Hypothesis 假设

Eliminate Uncertainty 消除不确定性

Confirms 确认

Qualitative 定性的

Essence 本质

Meaning 意思

Open-Ended Questions 开放性问题

Welcomes Surprises 欢迎惊喜

Explores 探索

Interestingly, one of the four Meyers-Briggs dimensions-the thinking-feeling dimension-has a strong gender bias and feeling aspects, which underlie some of the qualitative skills, will be much more important in the new cognitive-based organization.
有趣的是，迈尔斯-布里格斯的四个维度之一——思考-情感维度存在着强烈的性别偏见，而情感方面则是一些定性技能的基础，在新的基于认知的组织中将变得更加重要。
Shimon Awerbuch talked about this issue yesterday, in describing how these new organizations are going to have more of a feminine quality.
昨天，Shimon Awerbuch 谈到了这个问题，描述了这些新组织将具有更多女性特质。
My point therefore is that cultural diversity and the ability to work in these uncertain, qualitative areas (Figure 6) become important and represent a general skill shift that we are going to have to see in our employees, a shift that enables them to process and internalize less structured data, to synthesize and understand the essence and meaning and to explore open-ended issues in a manner that leads to innovative products and solutions.
因此，我的观点是，文化多样性和在这些不确定的、定性的领域（图 6）中工作的能力变得重要，并代表了我们将在员工身上看到的一种普遍的技能转变，这种转变使他们能够处理和内化较少结构化的数据，综合和理解本质和意义，并以一种能够导致创新产品和解决方案的方式探索开放性问题。

THE “CHANGE" PROCESS “变革”过程

We have been talking about organizations that are changing from the mechanical to the cognitive view; the change process is the transition or dynamic through which firms must pass as they adapt from the current to the future state (Figure 7).
我们一直在谈论从机械视角转变为认知视角的组织；变革过程是企业在适应从现状到未来状态的转变或动态过程（图 7）。
The transition state itself is similar to an airplane flight that encounters turbulence: you know you can only get to your destination by flying through it.
过渡状态本身就像是飞机飞行遇到的颠簸：你知道只有飞过去才能到达目的地。
The transition through the turbulence is necessary, but you want to get through it quickly because it is clearly not comfortable.
过渡期的动荡是必要的，但你希望尽快度过，因为显然它并不舒服。
The transition state (Figure 7) is marked by i) low stability, ii) high emotional stress, iii) high, but often undirected energy, iv) loss of control, v) a return to past patterns of behavior which now become highly valued, vi) anxiety, vii) increased conflict, and, viii) fear; what a wonderful place to be.
过渡状态（图 7）的特点是：i）稳定性低，ii）情绪压力高，iii）能量高，但常常没有方向性，iv）失去控制，v）回归过去的行为模式，这些模式现在变得非常重要，vi）焦虑，vii）冲突增加，和 viii）恐惧；多么美妙的地方。

Figure 7. The "Change" Process.
图 7. "变革" 过程。

Characteristics of the Transition State:
过渡态的特征

Low stability 低稳定性

High emotional stress 高度情绪压力

High, often undirected energy
高能量，常常没有方向性

Loss of control 失去控制

Past patterns of behavior become highly valued
过去的行为模式变得非常重要

Anxiety 焦虑

Conflict increases 冲突增加

Fear 恐惧

Adapted from concepts developed by Kurt Lewin and Richard Beckhard.
改编自 Kurt Lewin 和 Richard Beckhard 提出的概念。

While change is discomforting, it is going to continue and most of us are going to spend our careers in large organizations that are in the transition state.
虽然变化令人不适，但它将继续进行，我们大多数人将在处于过渡状态的大型组织中度过我们的职业生涯。
Indeed, change will be a characteristic of the cognitive organization, because information changes which affect all aspects of corporate decision making, are so rapid.
确实，变化将是认知组织的一个特征，因为信息的变化如此迅速，影响着企业决策的各个方面。
If firms are going to mass customize with continuous improvement, continuous innovation and continuous leap-frogging over competitors, then they must be constantly reorganizing.
如果企业要通过持续改进、持续创新和持续超越竞争对手来进行大规模定制，那么它们必须不断进行重组。
Moreover, employees are most likely going to spend the remainder of their career in a continual state of change so that managers of the new organization will have to develop skills that enable them to manage employees in the transition states.
此外，员工很可能会在职业生涯的剩余时间里处于不断变化的状态，因此新组织的管理者必须培养能够管理员工在过渡状态下的技能。
These skills (Figure 8), were less valued in the steady state, unchanging mechanical-view organization.
这些技能（图 8），在稳定状态、不变的机械观组织中被较少重视。

NEW COMPETENCIES 新的能力

Richard Hirsh [see Hirsh in this volume] suggested that the current utility organization has been essentially unchanged for 50 years or more.
Richard Hirsh（见本卷中的 Hirsh）认为当前的公用事业组织在 50 年或更长时间内基本上没有改变。
By contrast, I will offer the idea that in the future, new utility organizations are going to change on a rapid and regular basis and that this will require a set of skills or competencies which are quite essential, but which do not exist and are not highly valued in today's relatively
相比之下，我将提出这样一个观点：在未来，新的公共事业组织将会以快速而定期的方式发生变化，这将需要一套非常重要但目前并不存在且不被高度重视的技能或能力
stable organizations. Figure 9 presents this new set of skills that management must adopt. They represent additional examples of those small "

" skills.
稳定的组织。图 9 展示了管理层必须采用的这一新技能集。它们代表了那些小的“

”技能的额外示例。

Figure 8. Management Skills Inventory.
图 8. 管理技能清单。

Informing	Self-Confidence
Listening	Self-Acceptance
Communications	Personal Adaptability
Conflict Management	Motivating Others
Stress Management	Group Skills
Human Relations Skills

Staffing, Coaching & Developing
人员配备、指导和发展

Innovation & Resourcefulness
创新与机智

We have already talked about structure in terms of de-layering systems and informating; we also talked about shared values and style. The new competencies can evolve only from developing those aspects of the organization.
我们已经讨论了关于去层级化系统和信息化的结构问题；我们还谈到了共享价值观和风格。新的能力只能从发展组织的这些方面中演化出来。
An organization cannot simply wish for these new competencies and then build those other skills 'backwards.' The organization comes first; it delivers these things.
一个组织不能仅仅希望拥有这些新的能力，然后再逆向培养其他技能。组织首先要提供这些东西。
I would therefore suggest that new utility organizations, whether virtual or just slowly moving toward change, have to acquire the new competencies:

因此，我建议新的公用事业组织，无论是虚拟的还是慢慢朝着变革的方向发展，都必须获得新的能力
- Strategic resource allocation: This is contrast to what we do today, which is budget control. Utilities are very good at budgets and managing to budgets and controlling by budgets. However, what we must excel at is strategic resource allocation-achieving competitive advantage.
战略资源配置：这与我们目前所做的预算控制形成对比。公用事业公司非常擅长预算和预算管理，通过预算进行控制。然而，我们必须擅长的是战略资源配置-实现竞争优势。
- Market-driven management: This is a change from the traditional engineering-driven management, as Shimon Awerbuch mentioned yesterday. Firms used to focus on greasing things, tightening things, maintaining things and if there was time left over, they might look at the customer.
市场驱动的管理：这是与传统的工程驱动管理不同的变化，正如昨天 Shimon Awerbuch 所提到的。公司过去通常专注于润滑事物、紧固事物、维护事物，如果还有时间，他们可能会关注客户。
In the new world, utilities will have to be good at market-driven managementunderstanding what market wants and needs and delivering it.
在新世界中，公用事业公司必须擅长市场驱动的管理，了解市场的需求并满足它。
- Portfolio management and asset management: These competencies replace traditional rate-base management which we used to call "field of dreams" management: build it and they will pay for it. That's what asset management
投资组合管理和资产管理：这些能力取代了我们过去所称的“梦想领域”管理，即建设它们，他们会为此付费。这就是资产管理。

Figure 9. New Competencies.
图 9. 新的能力。

Strategic Resource Allocation: Apply capital,

, and non-financial resources to achieve competitive advantages consistent with strategic objectives.
战略资源配置：将资本、技术和非金融资源应用于实现与战略目标一致的竞争优势。

Market-Driven Management:

Manage operations to develop, market, and deliver products that create customer and shareholder value.
市场驱动型管理：管理运营以开发、市场和交付能够创造客户和股东价值的产品。

Portfolio Management: 投资组合管理

Develop and manage a portfolio of owned and non-owned supply and demand resources which achieve market segment, operating, and financial objectives.
开发和管理一系列拥有和非拥有的供应和需求资源，以实现市场细分、运营和财务目标。

Asset Management: 资产管理

Manage individual capital assets to create economic value in excess of the cost of capital employed.
管理个人资本资产，创造超过所投入资本成本的经济价值。

Process Management: 过程管理

Develop and manage business processes linked directly to the utility's outputs to focus resource allocation priorities, improve quality and control costs.
开发和管理与公用事业的产出直接相关的业务流程，以便集中资源分配的优先级，提高质量和控制成本。

used to be all about. The new focus must be on asset and portfolio management with the objective of creating wealth.
过去一直是关于什么的。新的重点必须放在资产和投资组合管理上，目标是创造财富。
Amazingly, firms still don't use appropriate valuation measures for managing their assets; they still use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to value investments and strategies. This is critical and will have to change.
令人惊讶的是，企业仍然没有使用适当的估值方法来管理其资产；他们仍然使用加权平均资本成本（WACC）来评估投资和策略。这是至关重要的，必须进行改变。

Process management: This is in contrast to functional management, where leverage is gained by understanding the whole process, by acknowledging the interdependencies that exist; efficiencies can be acquired because information flows along process, not functional lines.
过程管理：这与功能管理相对，通过理解整个过程，承认存在的相互依赖关系来获得优势；效率可以通过沿着过程而不是功能线流动的信息获得。
Management Reporting: This is very different from the FERC-based accounting and reporting we are all used to as Alistair Preston indicated quite clearly yesterday.
管理报告：这与我们所有人昨天阿利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿明确指出的基于 FERC 的会计和报告非常不同。
Resource allocation involves applying resources to achieve competitive advantages consistent with objectives which is clearly different from budget and control.
资源配置涉及将资源应用于实现与目标一致的竞争优势，这与预算和控制明显不同。
Traditional managerial reporting has little to do with managing and paying attention to opportunities that create value.
传统的管理报告与管理和关注创造价值的机会几乎没有关系。

To me, these are the important competencies that new organizations must have. Now we can look at the other "S's" and determine what is needed in terms of structure, systems, and staff in terms of organizational redesign to be effective and deliver the needed competencies.
对我来说，这些是新组织必须具备的重要能力。现在我们可以看看其他的“S”，并确定在组织重设计方面需要什么样的结构、系统和人员来实现有效性并提供所需的能力。
For example, market-driven management aims to develop and deliver products that create value.
例如，市场驱动的管理旨在开发和提供创造价值的产品。
We have all gotten quite comfortable with these words, yet I would suggest that if we decided to pursue such a capability as a firm, nobody would say: "Okay; now how do we re-organize to accomplish that?' In other words, in formulating new strategies, firms generally forget the organizational changes needed to implement and deliver them.
我们对这些词已经非常熟悉了，然而我建议，如果我们决定作为一家公司追求这样的能力，没有人会说：“好吧，现在我们该如何重新组织来实现这个目标？”换句话说，在制定新的战略时，公司通常会忽视实施和交付所需的组织变化。
This omission leads to declining, dysfunctional organizations; the harder they try to improve performance, the more they practice their old organization behaviors, the more their actual results deviate from the desired.
这种遗漏导致组织衰退、功能失调；他们越是努力提高绩效，越是坚持他们过去的组织行为，他们的实际结果与期望的结果偏离得越远。
These firms should be moving their employees away from those old patterns of behavior yet they tend to do the opposite: force employees di-
这些公司应该让员工摆脱那些旧的行为模式，然而他们往往相反地做：强迫员工..
rectly back into those behaviors. The important message here is that making change, whether it is introducing empowerment or customer marketing, requires widespread organizational realignment in order to succeed.
重要的信息是，无论是引入赋权还是客户营销，都需要广泛的组织重组才能成功。
Knowing how to reorganize may, in fact, be the most important new skill cognitive organizations need. They are needed to open markets and to develop new products. Now I would also offer that today's utility organizations generally do not have these skills.
知道如何重新组织可能是认知组织最重要的新技能。它们需要开拓市场和开发新产品。现在我还要提到，如今的公用事业组织通常没有这些技能。

So, I think that our challenge here as we move forward is to look at organizations, to look at their competencies and to keep in mind the organizational dynamics of change.
所以，我认为我们在前进的过程中面临的挑战是要看待组织，看待它们的能力，并牢记变革的组织动态。
In the transition to the virtual utility we are dealing with collections of human capabilities as well as technological capabilities. So I wish us luck as we move forward and hope that this presentation provided a context in which to explore the issues of the virtual utility.
在过渡到虚拟公共事业的过程中，我们处理的是人类能力和技术能力的集合。因此，我希望我们在前进的过程中好运，并希望这个演示提供了一个探索虚拟公共事业问题的背景。
Thank you. 谢谢。

REFERENCES 参考文献

Peters, Waterman, "In Search of Excellence," Harper and Row, 1982
彼得斯，沃特曼，《追求卓越》，哈珀与罗，1982 年

Davenport, Thomas, "Process Innovation: Re-engineering Work Through Information Technology,"
达文波特，托马斯，“流程创新：通过信息技术重新设计工作”，

3

BEING VIRTUAL: BEYOND 虚拟存在：超越

RESTRUCTURING AND HOW 重组和如何重组

WE GET THERE 我们到达那里

Karl R. Rábago 卡尔·R·拉巴戈Environmental Defense Fund
环境保护基金

INTRODUCTION 介绍

The word virtual suffers from a recent spate of immense over-use. To add clarity to my own thought, I consulted a dictionary. My old edition, not edited for current usage, says:
虚拟这个词最近被过度使用。为了使我的思想更清晰，我查阅了一本词典。我的旧版词典，没有针对当前用法进行编辑，上面写着：

Virtual - existing or resulting in essence or effect though not in actual fact, form or name. From medieval English—virtual - effective, powerful. From Latin - virtus-capacity, virtue. [American Heritage, 1973]
虚拟 - 虽然不是实际事实、形式或名称，但在本质或效果上存在或产生。源自中世纪英语 - 虚拟 - 有效、有力。源自拉丁语 - virtus-能力、美德。[《美国传统词典》，1973 年]

Not much help, perhaps, or maybe lots. In the virtual utility, only the essence remains. The virtual utility should be effective and powerful, should have the capacity of and the virtue of the utility; a utility in everything but fact, form or name.
或许帮助不多，或许很多。在虚拟效用中，只有本质留存。虚拟效用应该是有效和强大的，应该具备效用的能力和美德；一种在事实、形式或名称上都不具备的效用。
The virtual utility is nimble and fleet of foot, less encumbered with physical assets, exploiting its intelligence and capabilities, embracing change and delivering outstanding customer satisfaction. Not a bad place to go.
虚拟实用程序灵活敏捷，不受物质资产的束缚，利用其智能和能力，拥抱变革并提供出色的客户满意度。去那里不错。

HOW TO GET THERE
如何到达那里

First the mundane. It seems that any agenda to get to the future and past the next ten years of transition will require attention to at least five issues:
首先是平凡的事情。似乎任何旨在走向未来并度过未来十年过渡期的议程都需要关注至少五个问题：

i) Allocate Costs-Since by definition there is little we can do to mitigate stranded costs, we must set about the allocation process immediately.
分配成本-由于根据定义，我们几乎无法减轻滞留成本，因此我们必须立即开始分配过程。
In Texas, where investor-owned utilities are committing millions to denying the trends, they have invented a new name for stranded costs-excess costs over market-or ECOM. Mere name changes will not suffice.
在德克萨斯州，投资者拥有的公用事业公司正在投入数百万美元来否认这些趋势，他们为滞留成本（超过市场的成本）或 ECOM 发明了一个新名字。仅仅改变名称是不够的。
While we are about it, we need to begin the cost allocation process for fully unbundled utility services.
在此期间，我们需要开始为完全解耦的公用事业服务进行成本分摊过程。

ii) Restructure Institutions-Our regulatory institutions and the artifacts of their processes will need dramatic changes.
ii) 重组机构-我们的监管机构及其流程的工具需要进行重大改变。
From the boring but essential process of culling through mountains of tariff filings, to the critical task of remaking regulators as siting and market power overseers, these tasks, too must be begun immediately.
从乏味但必不可少的筛选大量关税申报文件的过程，到重要的任务——将监管机构改造为场地和市场权力监督者，这些任务也必须立即开始。

iii) Address Public Goods-Despite the theoretical and rhetorical wishes of the most fervent free-market talking heads, the public goods aspects of the utility system must be addressed, and in some form preserved. Strandable benefits need not be stranded.
尽管最热衷于自由市场的人们在理论和修辞上希望如此，但公共产品方面的公共事业系统必须得到解决，并以某种形式得以保留。可被搁置的好处不必被搁置。

iv) Ensure Technological Progress-Technology drives basic economic form. We instituted the current model of utilities and regulation because of the limits of available technology. Only new and different technologies can enable a different future.
确保技术进步-技术推动基本的经济形态。我们制定了当前的公共事业和监管模式，是因为可用技术的限制。只有新的和不同的技术才能实现不同的未来。
Washington, D.C., the states, and the utilities must unfreeze from the headlights, and resume the march forward.
华盛顿特区、各州和公用事业必须从困境中解脱出来，重新开始前进的步伐。

v) Address Market Imperfections-As I already suggested, there are no perfect markets. The subsidies to conventional technologies and fuels ensure that. The perfect need not be the enemy of the good.
解决市场不完善问题-正如我已经提到的，没有完美的市场。对传统技术和燃料的补贴确保了这一点。完美并不一定是好的敌人。
We can make progress, and must, in improving market efficiency by addressing all true costs associated with production, transmission and consumption of electricity.
我们可以并且必须通过解决与电力生产、传输和消费相关的所有真实成本来提高市场效率。

There is much detail to be worked out in this or any suggestion. For now, there is value in establishing a context with some framing concepts.
在这个或任何建议中，还有很多细节需要解决。目前，建立一些框架概念来确定背景是有价值的。

THE BASELINE 基准线

We should start with what we have. What we have is a huge pool of physical plant. We have an electron delivery system that has been called a "service" industry. But for most residential and small commercial customers, it is not.
我们应该从我们拥有的东西开始。我们拥有一个庞大的物理设施池。我们拥有一个被称为“服务”行业的电子传输系统。但对于大多数住宅和小型商业客户来说，它并不是。
The only contact most have with actual people at the "Light Company" is a telephone call to establish connection and a similar call to terminate it when they move. We do not shape the
大多数人与“光公司”真正的人员唯一的联系方式是通过电话建立连接，以及在他们搬家时通过类似的电话来终止连接。我们不进行塑造。
character of our subscription except by the volume of our consumption. We do not try out new "services," or take advantage of "specials" or engage with sales staff in service reviews.
我们的订阅特点只能通过我们的消费量来体现。我们不尝试新的“服务”，也不利用“特价”或与销售人员进行服务评估。
We do not hear stories of powerful and creative business leaders emerging from within the industry. We do not seek advertising about product "rollouts." We do not shop by phone.
我们没有听说过行业内涌现出强大而有创造力的商业领袖的故事。我们不寻求关于产品“推出”的广告。我们不通过电话购物。

We do know that somewhere at the other end of the wire there is a generating plant. We know it is part of the pollution problem, and that it employs some workers that we have never met. We know that on the rare occasion when the power goes out, someone will be at work.
我们确实知道，在电线的另一端有一个发电厂。我们知道它是污染问题的一部分，也知道它雇佣了一些我们从未见过的工人。我们知道在极少数情况下，当电力中断时，会有人在工作。
We know from the book covers in grade school that electricity is dangerous. We expect to have electricity whenever we want it. And we know that it will be there, at least in varying degrees, for the

of the world that has electricity. But for all the success with which electrons are delivered, electricity has not really been a service industry for individual Americans since sometime after the Edison method gave way to the Insull model.
我们从小学的课本封面上知道电是危险的。我们期望在需要时随时有电。我们知道至少在有电的世界的一部分地区，电会以不同程度存在。但是尽管电子传输取得了很大成功，自从爱迪生的方法被英萨尔模式取代后，电力对于美国个人来说并不真正是一个服务行业。

Alternatives to the extant model have been available since the start. The remnants of now unused district heating systems can be found in many of our larger cities. Wind energy provided much of the original electrification of the rural West.
自从开始以来，已经有了替代现有模式的选择。如今已不再使用的区域供热系统的残余可以在我们许多大城市中找到。风能为农村西部的最初电气化提供了很大的支持。
Working solar thermal systems have been around for nearly one hundred years. But one by one, these systems and technologies have faded before the relentless economies of scale epitomizing the days when we really did think electricity could become too cheap to meter.
太阳能热系统已经存在了近一百年。但是，这些系统和技术逐渐消失，被无情的规模经济所取代，这象征着我们曾经认为电力可能变得太便宜而不计费的日子。

In the last twenty years, however, distributed gas generators, renewable energy and energy efficiency have begun to emerge as technology and service options capable of truly moving the industry toward the service paradigm.
在过去的二十年里，然而，分布式燃气发电机、可再生能源和能源效率已经开始成为能够真正推动行业向服务范式转变的技术和服务选择。
The electricity industry has not been very friendly to these alternatives.
电力行业对这些替代能源并不友好。
The exceptions are noteworthy, and their existence reassuring, but of late too many utilities have withdrawn from efficiency and renewable energy, from forward-looking research and development efforts, and from real competition in generation.
例外情况值得注意，它们的存在令人放心，但近来太多公用事业公司撤出了效率和可再生能源领域，放弃了前瞻性的研发努力，也没有真正参与发电领域的竞争。

The utility industry is now preoccupied with a visage of competition on the horizon. By and large the notion has paralyzed rather than invigorated the electric industry, though the conference industry is doing quite well.
公用事业行业现在对即将到来的竞争形势忧心忡忡。总体而言，这种观念使电力行业陷入瘫痪，而会议行业则表现得相当不错。
One can almost see the utility accounting offices, lit bright with too many incandescent bulbs, with clerks bent stoop-backed over the ledgers, accounting for the pennies of stranded costs and calculating to the mil the rates to be charged and the period of collection necessary to make the company whole.
一个几乎可以看到的实用会计办公室，明亮地照亮着太多的白炽灯泡，职员们弯着腰背在账本上工作，核算滞留成本的每一分钱，并计算出要收取的费率和需要收取的期限，以使公司恢复完整。
The concern is not a minor issue; industry estimates range around

billion for stranded costs-the value of plant and regulatory assets rendered uneconomic by competition. All concern is focused on a promise to allow a reasonable opportunity to earn a reasonable return-arguably meaningless in the competitive paradigm.
关注的问题并不是一个小问题；行业估计的滞留成本约为

亿美元，即由于竞争而使工厂和监管资产的价值变得不经济。所有关注都集中在一个承诺上，即允许有合理机会获得合理回报-在竞争范式下可以说是毫无意义的。
And amidst this concern over costs that cannot be mitigated, many are forgetting the strandable benefits

that need not be stranded.
在对无法减轻的成本感到担忧的同时，许多人忽略了不需要被搁置的可实现的好处。

Focusing on stranded costs and positioning for competition are transition tactics. Beyond the transformation lies a future where the electric industry will likely delaminate into a commodity-based electron generation market and a common carrierlike transmission system.
专注于滞留成本和竞争定位是过渡策略。在转型之外，电力行业可能会分化为基于商品的电子发电市场和类似公共运输的输电系统的未来。
At the distribution level, however, the electric industry can undergo its most profound change-from a monopoly-based, central stationconnected mechanism for the collection of rents into a vital service industry that rebundles pure electron delivery with value-added options not yet imagined.
然而，在分配层面上，电力行业可以经历其最深刻的变革-从基于垄断的、与中央发电站相连的机制，用于收取租金，转变为一个重要的服务行业，将纯电子传输与尚未想象的增值选项重新捆绑在一起。
The distribution sector can drive the growth and change of the entire industry, and operate in a convergence zone where major trends promise to change virtually all the old assumptions about and even the essential character of the industry.
分销部门可以推动整个行业的增长和变革，并在一个融合区域运营，其中主要趋势承诺改变几乎所有关于行业的旧有假设，甚至是行业的本质特征。
Getting there will be one of the most exciting changes to shake the sooty foundations of electricity in quite a long time.
到达那里将是电力领域最令人兴奋的变革之一，将彻底改变电力行业的基础。

CONVERGING TRENDS 趋势趋同

The electricity industry is moving inexorably into a convergence zone where several major trends can and will profoundly shape the industry's future.
电力行业正在不可避免地进入一个融合区域，其中几个重大趋势可以并将深刻地塑造该行业的未来。
Growing global demand for energy, deregulation, the information explosion, environmentalism, population, technological innovation and other forces will combine with the trend toward competition to provide new opportunities for value added services and true customer choice.
全球对能源的需求增长、去监管化、信息爆炸、环保主义、人口增长、技术创新以及其他力量将与竞争趋势相结合，为增值服务和真正的客户选择提供新的机会。
The information content of electricity will increase in importance. The separation between information, matter and energy in electricity will disappear.
电力的信息内容将变得更加重要。电力中的信息、物质和能量之间的分离将消失。
Though the concern about stranded costs has naturally led to an emphasis on the commodity-based generation sector, the very success of the utility industry in almost universally connecting citizens in this century has laid the foundation for the next major shift-away from the central station model to the high-efficiency, high value of the distributed system.
尽管对滞留成本的担忧自然而然地导致对基于商品的发电部门的重视，但公用事业行业在本世纪几乎普遍连接公民的成功为下一个主要转变奠定了基础，即从中央站模式转向高效率、高价值的分布式系统。
[See Linden, et al., 1995].
参见 Linden 等人，1995 年。

Environmentalism-Concern about the environment is pervasive, both in this country and throughout the world. In the international community, especially, there is great concern for global issues such as climate change and ozone depletion.

As many are pointing out, several of our fiercest economic competitors are positioning their industries for market domination through strong domestic environmental standards.
环保主义-对环境的关注在这个国家和全世界都普遍存在。特别是在国际社会中，人们对气候变化和臭氧层破坏等全球问题非常关注。正如许多人指出的那样，我们的一些最激烈的经济竞争对手正在通过强大的国内环境标准来使其产业在市场上占据主导地位。
[See Moore, 1994] This trend favors technologies that are inherently environmentally sound and will disfavor the costly and efficiency-reducing end-ofpipe controls necessitated for conventional technologies.
[见 Moore，1994]这一趋势有利于那些本质上环保的技术，并不利于传统技术所必需的昂贵且降低效率的末端管控措施。
Even critics of the present approach to dealing with global climate change recognize the importance of alternative generation technologies.

All the environmental regulation the most ardent regulator could imagine will, in the end, only control pollution.
即使对于目前处理全球气候变化方法的批评者来说，他们也认识到替代能源技术的重要性。最热衷于监管的监管者所能想象的所有环境法规，最终只能控制污染。
New generation technologies, efficiency, and other electrotechnologies have the potential to eliminate pollution associated with electricity production entirely-in our lifetimes.
新一代技术、高效率和其他电气技术有潜力在我们的有生之年内完全消除与电力生产相关的污染。

Telecommunications and Computing-As noted in a recent article in Wired magazine,
电信和计算-正如《连线》杂志最近一篇文章中所指出的，

More Americans build computers than cars, more make semi-conductors than construction machinery, more work in data processing than petroleum refining. Since 1990, US firms have been spending more on computers and communications gear than on all other capital equipment combined.
更多的美国人制造电脑而不是汽车，更多的人制造半导体而不是建筑机械，更多的人从事数据处理而不是石油精炼。自 1990 年以来，美国企业在电脑和通信设备上的支出超过了所有其他资本设备的总和。
Software is the country's fastest-growing industry. World trade in information-related goods and services is growing five times faster than trade in natural resources. And so on and so forth. [Heilemann, 1996]
软件是该国增长最快的行业。与自然资源贸易相比，信息相关商品和服务的世界贸易增长速度快五倍。等等。[Heilemann, 1996]

Several commentators are beginning to seek lessons from the information revolution that can be applied to an electric utility industry facing increasing competition.
一些评论家开始寻求从信息革命中汲取教训，以应用于面临日益激烈竞争的电力公用事业行业。
[Rábago, 1996] A good place to start is with Marshall McLuhan's oft-quoted first principle-"The Medium is the Message." Let's start with what the message is not.
[Rábago, 1996] 一个好的起点是马歇尔·麦克卢汉经常引用的第一原则——"媒介即信息"。让我们先来看看信息不是什么。

For all the speed and savings inherent in the new information gathering capabilities of the web, the net, and other aspects of the information revolution, mere efficiency is not the message of the Internet.
尽管网络、互联网和信息革命的其他方面具有信息获取能力的速度和节省成本的优势，但仅仅追求效率并不是互联网的宗旨。
For all the cultural necessity to "get with it" through a company home page, new billboards is not the message of the Internet. And executive access to documents routinely retrieved by the legal staff is not the message of the Internet.
对于通过公司主页“跟上潮流”的文化需求来说，新的广告牌并不是互联网的信息。高管对法律团队常规检索的文件也不是互联网的信息。

The message of the information revolution is distribution of intelligence, function, and interactivity. The message of the Internet is transience, choice and acces- sible technology.
信息革命的信息是智能、功能和互动的分布。互联网的信息是瞬息万变、选择和可访问的技术。
It is about a world and a way of thinking that is profoundly at odds with the model dominating our perception of the electric power industry.
这是关于一个与我们对电力行业的认知模式完全不同的世界和思维方式。

The Internet has reached phenomenal use in this country not because it is an information resource, but because the information is now within easy reach of many homes and businesses in this country. On the net, information is no longer limited by its physical location.
互联网在这个国家的使用达到了惊人的程度，不是因为它是一个信息资源，而是因为信息现在可以轻松地被许多家庭和企业获取。在网络上，信息不再受限于其物理位置。
The Internet does not operate from a single central computer; no central station model of computer intelligence could have created it.
互联网不是由单一的中央计算机运行的；没有中央站模型的计算机智能能够创造它。
The network of networks is an interlaced and interconnected web of distributed computing power connecting millions of sites, each with their own native or potential intelligence.
网络的网络是一个交织和相互连接的分布式计算能力的网络，连接着数百万个站点，每个站点都有自己的本地或潜在的智能。
Hypertext links connect the desire for information with its availability at precisely the moment sought by the user and interoperability is the premier protocol.
超文本链接将信息需求与用户所寻求的准确时刻的可用性相连接，互操作性是首要协议。

One message of the new information media is that truly revolutionary growth in the ubiquity and use of information came only with decentralization and nearly unfettered interconnection.
新信息媒体的一个信息是，信息的普及和使用的真正革命性增长只有在分散化和几乎无限制的互联互通下才能实现。
If this message has an analogue in the electric utility industry, it is the distributed utility model.
如果在电力行业中有类似的信息，那就是分布式公用事业模式。
The installed base of electric generation connected through the one-way central station-to-transmission-to-distribution model we know today is significantly larger and more pervasive than the mainframe computer systems of a few decades ago.
通过今天我们所知的单向中央站到输电到配电模式连接的电力发电装置的安装基数，比几十年前的大型计算机系统要大得多且更为普遍。
But stranded cost recovery and accelerated depreciation will eventually eliminate this difference.
但是滞留成本回收和加速折旧最终将消除这种差异。
After that, further argument for the central station utility model could sound remarkably resonant of the misguided business strategies of IBM, Wang and other mainframe computer giants.
此后，对于中央站点实用模型的进一步论证可能会让人想起 IBM、Wang 和其他大型主机计算机巨头的错误商业策略。

The Internet and World Wide Web have not skyrocketed in the public consciousness because they produce attractive images, because they are "neat," or because they are "high tech." While appearance attracts, content, choice of content, and interoperability rule.
互联网和万维网并非因为产生吸引人的图像、因为它们“整洁”或者因为它们“高科技”而在公众意识中迅速崛起。虽然外观吸引人，但内容、内容选择和互操作性才是至关重要的。
Go where you want, stay as long or as little as you like, dig deep or surf, the choice is yours. Through the power of Moore's law

and the constant drive for usability, the process is getting easier all the time. Less than ten years ago the only way to interact with a computer was through the arcania of disk operating system commands, painstakingly typed on a keyboard.
去你想去的地方，停留时间长短由你决定，深入探索或者冲浪，选择权在你手中。通过摩尔定律的力量和对可用性的不断追求，这个过程变得越来越容易。不到十年前，与计算机互动的唯一方式是通过键盘费力地输入繁琐的磁盘操作系统命令。
Less than twenty years ago, one had to use keypunch cards. Technological progress has not only enhanced the range of information and information processing choices one enjoys, but also the ease with which those choices are made.
不到二十年前，人们还需要使用打孔卡。技术进步不仅扩大了人们享受信息和信息处理选择的范围，而且还提高了做出这些选择的便利性。
The code behind the program is absolutely irrelevant to the ultimate consumer of computing and information technology. What sells is the ability to be where you want to be, do what you want to do, when you want to do it.
该程序背后的代码对于计算和信息技术的最终用户来说完全无关紧要。销售的是能够在你想要的地方做你想做的事情，以及在你想做的时候做到这一点的能力。

For the electric industry it would be wise to look for the places where the electric equivalent of Moore's law may lie. Examining the efficiency improvement curves of large central scale generation technology suggests that their best days may be gone.
对于电力行业来说，寻找电力版摩尔定律可能存在的地方是明智的。研究大型中央规模发电技术的效率改进曲线表明，它们的黄金时代可能已经过去。
The learning curves of renewables, computer-driven energy management technologies, fuel cells and small scale gas turbines offer much greater promise (See Figure
可见图表，可再生能源、计算机驱动的能源管理技术、燃料电池和小型燃气轮机的学习曲线提供了更大的希望

1). With their small size also comes environmental superiority, flexibility, and that most important competitive attribute-adaptability to customer desires.
随着它们的小尺寸，还带来了环境优势、灵活性，以及最重要的竞争属性-适应客户需求。
With improvements in small scale generation, from sub-10 MW biomass gasifier/turbine systems to photovoltaic roof shingles, and in storage technologies, from advanced batteries to superconducting flywheels-all managed by an interactive, intelligent interface with the distribution grid-the newer energy technologies offer the greatest range of choice for customers.
随着小型发电技术的改进，从 10 兆瓦以下的生物质气化/涡轮系统到光伏屋顶瓦片，以及储能技术的进步，从先进电池到超导飞轮，所有这些都由与配电网交互智能的界面管理，新能源技术为客户提供了最广泛的选择范围。
Because of their small size and their relative independence from much supporting infrastructure, the technologies of the distributed system offer the broadest and most flexible menu of choices for satisfying customers.
由于其小尺寸和相对独立于大部分支持基础设施，分布式系统的技术提供了最广泛和最灵活的选择菜单，以满足客户的需求。
The companies that become expert providers of that choice will satisfy, at a handsome profit, the needs, wants and desires of future markets.
那些成为该选择的专业供应商的公司将以可观的利润满足未来市场的需求、愿望和欲望。

Figure 1. DOE Cost Projections.
图 1. DOE 成本预测。

The future will likely include an electric industry strongly influenced by customer choice and an expectation of interactivity, by the computing, telecommunications, and information revolution, and by the progress of innovative technology.
未来很可能包括一个受客户选择和互动期望的电力行业，受到计算机、电信和信息革命以及创新技术进步的强烈影响。
The power of the technological innovation does not lie in doing business-as-usual in a different, even more efficient way. The heartbeat message of the future is fundamental change.
技术创新的力量不在于以一种不同甚至更高效的方式进行常规业务。未来的核心信息是根本性的改变。

As more and more households and businesses expand their use of telecommunications technologies, they will also be installing some of the infrastructure for new energy services.
随着越来越多的家庭和企业扩大对电信技术的使用，他们也将安装一些新能源服务的基础设施。

Many alternative generation technologies, such as photovoltaics, are also wellsuited to supplying remote telecommunications requirements;

is an ideal power supply for the milli-watt microcells of the new personal communications network systems. Intermittent energy sources have more value to users when combined with communications between generator and user.
许多替代发电技术，如光伏发电，也非常适合满足偏远通信需求；对于新的个人通信网络系统中的毫瓦微基站来说，它是一种理想的电源供应。当发电机与用户之间进行通信时，间歇性能源对用户更有价值。
Load control systems and "smart houses" rely on telecommunication for their effectiveness. Two-way telecommunications coupled with two-way energy flow and distributed generation, storage, and management systems could convert every home or office into its own virtual utility.
负载控制系统和“智能家居”依赖于电信技术来提高效能。双向通信结合双向能量流动以及分布式发电、储能和管理系统，可以将每个家庭或办公室转变为自己的虚拟公用事业。
The ability to network users and generators of electricity and to manage energy use
网络用户和发电机的能力以及管理能源使用
interactively offers potential for saving energy that could more than pay for fiber to the curb.
互动性提供了节省能源的潜力，这可能超过了光纤到路缘的成本。
Home or building scale systems comprised of generation, management and storage technologies would allow off-peak purchase from the grid and on-peak sale to the grid, all driven by price signals communicated in real-time to the building and managed through a simple computer interface.
家庭或建筑规模的系统由发电、管理和储存技术组成，可以在低峰时段从电网购买电力，并在高峰时段向电网出售电力，所有操作都由实时传输给建筑物的价格信号驱动，并通过简单的计算机界面进行管理。

Electric systems are essentially geographically based.
电力系统基本上是基于地理位置的。
New geographic information systems (GIS) technologies, involving clipboard computing, digitized mapping and data retrieval systems offer potential for reducing time and labor-intensive costs related to operations and maintenance of the distribution infrastructure.
新的地理信息系统（GIS）技术，涉及剪贴板计算、数字化地图和数据检索系统，有潜力减少与配电基础设施的运营和维护相关的时间和劳动密集型成本。
These technological improvements-essentially the digitizing of the distribution system-may also be an important course for ensuring continued reliability in the face of recent industry trends to reduce service staff and close local offices.
这些技术改进，本质上是分销系统的数字化，也可能是确保在近期行业趋势下减少服务人员和关闭本地办事处的情况下继续保持可靠性的重要途径。
Developments in information technology already make the deployment of renewable energy generation more practical and less expensive. Computing power increases the value of the information content of electricity.
信息技术的发展已经使可再生能源的部署更加实用和更便宜。计算能力提高了电力信息内容的价值。

Knowing where customers are, how they use their electricity, and their collective impacts upon transmission and distribution systems means valuable markets for providers of load-control technology, small-sized supplemental generation systems, and even high-efficiency appliance marketing.
了解客户所在地、他们如何使用电力以及他们对输电和配电系统的集体影响，对于负荷控制技术提供商、小型辅助发电系统甚至高效家电市场来说，意味着有价值的市场。
Rather than the brute-force solution of adding a new power plant or expensive transmission upgrade, the careful targeting of modular and flexible efficiency or renewable options offers least-cost options to enhance service quality and reliability.
与增加新的发电厂或昂贵的输电升级的蛮力解决方案不同，精确定位模块化和灵活的高效或可再生选择提供了提高服务质量和可靠性的最低成本选择。

Energy Demand and Population Growth-Global population will probably double by the middle of the next century.

Energy demand will nearly quadruple. Population increases directly drive demand for the services provided by energy.
能源需求和人口增长-全球人口到下个世纪中叶可能会翻一番。能源需求将近四倍增长。人口增加直接推动对能源提供的服务的需求。
Renewable energy, now the marginal energy source, will inevitably provide a greater portion of overall energy demand as depletable resources are depleted and the value of local resources increases.
可再生能源，现在是边际能源来源，随着可耗尽资源的枯竭和本地资源价值的提高，必然会提供更大比例的总能源需求。
[Lamarre, 1995] In a similar fashion, as demand for services provided by energy increase, the value of energy efficiency also increases.
[Lamarre, 1995] 随着对能源提供的服务需求的增加，能源效率的价值也会增加。

Population growth, especially in developing countries, means an expanding market for all kinds of energy solutions. Today some two billion people are without electricity.
人口增长，尤其是在发展中国家，意味着对各种能源解决方案的市场需求不断扩大。如今，约有 20 亿人口没有电力。
This growing demand will stress the ability and question the desirability of sinking massive levels of scarce capital into traditional energy options.
这种不断增长的需求将对将大量有限资本投入传统能源选择的能力产生压力，并对其可取性提出质疑。
A truly conservative energy policy will likely rely upon the modular, flexible, and scaleable nature of distributed systems, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Even more important in this calculation is the long term trend in fuel supply.
一个真正保守的能源政策很可能依赖于分布式系统、可再生能源和能源效率的模块化、灵活和可扩展的特性。在这个计算中更重要的是燃料供应的长期趋势。
Long term solutions must recognize a likely reduction in availability of fossil fuels, due to both limited supplies and growing greenhouse concerns.
长期解决方案必须认识到化石燃料供应可能减少的情况，这是由于供应有限和日益增长的温室气体问题所导致的。

Deregulation-The past two decades have seen complete or partial deregulation in many U.S. industries: airlines; trucking; stock exchange brokerage services; rail- roads; buses; cable television; oil and natural gas production; long-distance telephone services; natural gas transmission and distribution; and banking.

This trend has reached the electric industry, and is in many respects a global phenomena. In many nations, governments are privatizing formerly state-run electric systems. In some cases, these nations are leap-frogging the U.S. model.
过去的二十年中，许多美国行业实现了完全或部分的放松管制：航空公司、卡车运输、股票交易经纪服务、铁路、公路、有线电视、石油和天然气生产、长途电话服务、天然气输送和分配以及银行业。这一趋势已经影响到电力行业，并在很多方面成为全球现象。在许多国家，政府正在将以前由国家经营的电力系统私有化。在某些情况下，这些国家正在跳过美国的模式。

A first and narrow glance at the battles between coal and gas, between utility generation and IPPs, and at the brooding presence of nuclear investments seems to have led conventional thinkers to suggest that competition disfavors distributed resources.
煤炭与天然气之间的战斗，公用发电和独立发电厂之间的竞争，以及核能投资的潜在存在，初看起来似乎让传统思维者认为竞争不利于分布式资源。
These new options have benefited from preferential, though erratic, regulatory treatment, to be sure. But they are not dependent upon that treatment.
这些新选项确实受益于优惠的、虽然不稳定的监管待遇。但它们并不依赖于这种待遇。
The modularity of alternative generation resources and the ability to diffuse them throughout the distribution system enables them to provide high value services that offset high prices for delivered electrons.
替代发电资源的模块化和能够将其分散到配电系统中，使其能够提供高价值的服务，以抵消电力传输的高价格。
The many currently cost-effective applications identified point the way to even greater opportunities in more open and competitive regimes.
目前已经确定的许多经济实惠的应用指向了在更加开放和竞争的体制下更大的机遇。
A new institutional structure, occasioned by deregulation and competition and centered on the distributed utility model will be facilitated by improvements in telecommunications and information technology, and will exploit the modularity and efficiency inherent in small gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency.
由于放松管制和竞争，以分布式公用事业模式为中心的新机构结构将通过电信和信息技术的改进来实现，并将利用小型天然气、可再生能源和能源效率中固有的模块化和高效性。

Dematerialization-"Dematerialization" refers to the process of doing more with less material-it is the process of reducing material, labor and energy content while increasing information content to develop a better designed product.
去物质化-“去物质化”是指在使用更少的材料的过程中做更多的事情-它是减少材料、劳动和能源内容的过程，同时增加信息内容以开发更好设计的产品。
Today a single CD-ROM disc can hold tens of thousands of pages of text and graphics. Fiber optics and faster, more powerful chips move and process orders of magnitude more information in fractions of the space used just ten years ago.
今天，一张单独的 CD-ROM 光盘可以存储数以万计的文字和图形页面。光纤和更快、更强大的芯片可以在比十年前使用的空间的一小部分中传输和处理数量级更多的信息。
Today's cars are lighter and use less material than their predecessors. The weight of a

electric motor has declined from 418 pounds in 1930, to 380 pounds in 1951 , and to 190 pounds in 1987. Dematerialization has resulted in smaller production units and often more local production.
今天的汽车比起它们的前辈更轻，使用的材料更少。电动机的重量从 1930 年的 418 磅下降到 1951 年的 380 磅，再下降到 1987 年的 190 磅。去物质化导致了更小的生产单位，通常更多的本地生产。
Already adapted to the idea of mini-mills, the steel industry is now looking at micromills, designed to target markets as small as cities instead of regions.

钢铁行业已经适应了迷你钢厂的概念，现在正着眼于微型钢厂，旨在针对城市而不是地区市场。

In the electric utility industry dematerialization can be seen in the economies of manufacturing scale in smaller generation technologies. Dematerialization can also be seen in fuel sources.
在电力行业中，可以看到在较小的发电技术中制造规模经济的物质减少。物质减少也可以在燃料来源中看到。
The original trend toward ever more dense energy sources, epitomized in nuclear power, has carried a significant materials burden in construction materials, fuels and waste disposal.
原始趋势朝着能源密度越来越高的方向发展，核能就是其中的典型代表，但在建筑材料、燃料和废物处理方面带来了重大的材料负担。
The trend now is toward less dense fuel sources, with natural gas as today's the fuel of choice and hydrogen-powered fuel cells on the horizon.
现在的趋势是朝着密度较低的燃料来源发展，天然气成为当今首选的燃料，而氢燃料电池也在未来可见。
The ultimate in dematerialization in fuel sources is solar based, such as photovoltaics, solar thermal and wind generation technologies.
太阳能是燃料来源中最彻底的非物质化形式，包括光伏、太阳热能和风能发电技术。

Dematerialization is what renewables are about, as abundant, diffuse energy is collected and applied to tasks without matter-intensive conversion intermediaries.
去物质化是可再生能源的核心，通过收集丰富而分散的能量，并将其应用于任务中，避免使用物质密集型的转换中介。
As manufactured, rather than constructed technologies, renewables improve efficiency through engineered dematerialization, or what Jun Miyaki of Japan's MITI calls "entropy engineering." Thin film and thinner silicon wafers have improved the cost performance of photovoltaics, membrane heliostats have improved solar thermal costs, and lighter components are key to improved longevity and greater performance of today's and tomorrow's variable speed wind turbines.
作为制造而非建造的技术，可再生能源通过工程化的物质减少来提高效率，或者正如日本经济产业省的 Jun Miyaki 所称的“熵工程”。薄膜和更薄的硅片提高了光伏技术的性价比，膜式平板太阳能热能系统降低了太阳能热能的成本，而更轻的组件则是提高今天和明天的可变速风力涡轮机寿命和性能的关键。

To generate electricity from coal, materials are assembled into large machinery to extract solar photons-energy-concentrated from plants into coal in a process taking millions of years.
从煤炭中发电，需要将材料组装成大型机械，将植物中集中的太阳光子能量提取到煤炭中，这个过程需要数百万年。
This concentrated energy source is transported using equipment assembled with more materials to a plant in which more materials are assembled in order to construct feeders, boilers, turbines, generators, and waste collection facilities.
这种集中能源源被使用更多材料组装的设备运输到一个工厂，该工厂使用更多材料组装给料机、锅炉、涡轮机、发电机和废物收集设施。
The heat energy of the coal is released and converted into mechanical energy, which in turn is converted to electric energy. The waste is sent to the land and to the air, almost devoid of the energy quality or any other beneficial quality it contained.
煤的热能被释放并转化为机械能，然后转化为电能。废物被送到陆地和空气中，几乎没有保留原有的能量质量或其他有益的质量。
Assembling all these materials loads the process with costs and inefficiencies. All this process is designed to reveal and produce an electrical product that in a photovoltaic cell is produced directly from the solar photon.
组装所有这些材料会增加成本和低效。所有这个过程的设计目的是揭示和生产一种电气产品，即光伏电池直接从太阳光子中产生。
Similar comparisons apply to superconductivity, fuel cells, hydrogen energy systems and energy efficiency.
类似的比较也适用于超导性、燃料电池、氢能系统和能源效率。

THE UPSHOT 结果

The relevance of all these converging trends lies in the forces they will exert on the electric industry. The significance lies in the convergence itself.
所有这些趋势的相关性在于它们对电力行业的影响力。重要性在于它们的融合本身。
As the components of technology and society converge, they affect each other, just as forces occupying the same field interact.
随着技术和社会的组成部分融合，它们相互影响，就像占据同一领域的力量相互作用一样。
What was once an electricity world neatly divided into its material, energy and information components will be a swirling mass where movement along one vector inspires the movement of another.
曾经被清晰划分为物质、能量和信息组成部分的电力世界，将变成一个涡流般的混合体，其中沿着一个向量的运动会激发另一个向量的运动。

In the convergence zone, when electricity service meets telecommunications, electricity will not become "digital," but electricity service can become interactive.
在融合区域中，当电力服务与电信相遇时，电力不会变得“数字化”，但电力服务可以变得互动。
In converging with information technology, electricity service can become intelligent, replacing the dumb electron delivery system of the central station model. Fewer, smarter, kilowatt hours will displace the electrons of those old systems. [Awerbuch, 1996] As population and environmentalism converge upon energy we will not need less energy, but more, better, better-timed and better-suited energy sources and services.
在与信息技术融合的过程中，电力服务可以变得智能化，取代中央站模式下的愚蠢电子传输系统。更少、更智能的千瓦时将取代那些旧系统的电子。随着人口和环保意识对能源的共同关注，我们不需要更少的能源，而是更多、更好、更适时和更适合的能源来源和服务。

Deregulation and increasing reliance upon markets for the allocation of private goods aspects of energy will lead to increasing customer focus.
放松管制和对市场的日益依赖将导致对客户的关注增加。
After the dust settles on the stranded cost problem, the key to success will lie in product differentiation around expectations of choice, environmental soundness and technological innova-
在滞留成本问题解决后，成功的关键将在于围绕选择期望、环境可持续性和技术创新的产品差异化
tion. The strategic thinking will focus on the forces in the convergence zone. Strategic thinkers will look beyond uneconomic generation and new access rules for transmission systems toward a truly competitive battleground for customer satisfaction.
战略思维将专注于融合区域的力量。战略思考者将超越经济不可行的发电和新的输电系统接入规则，朝着真正竞争的客户满意度战场迈进。
Combining the value-adding attributes of renewable energy and efficiency with electron delivery will offer a ready arsenal of options for keeping and attracting customers focused not just on reliability, but also qualities like environmental soundness, price-stability, modularity, flexibility, intelligence and empowerment through real choice.
将可再生能源和效率的增值属性与电子传输相结合，将为保持和吸引客户提供一系列选择，这些选择不仅关注可靠性，还关注环境友好、价格稳定、模块化、灵活性、智能性和通过真正选择实现赋权的品质。
The future is a convergence zone; those who would be profitable there will exploit every aspect of the new reality. They will be-effective, powerful, existing or resulting in essence or effect though not in actual fact, form or name. They will be virtual.
未来是一个融合区域；那些在那里获利的人将会利用新现实的每一个方面。他们将是有效的、强大的，存在或导致本质或效果，尽管不是实际事实、形式或名称。他们将是虚拟的。

REFERENCES 参考文献

American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, New York: American Heritage Publishing, 1973.
美国传统英语词典，纽约：美国传统出版社，1973 年。

Awerbuch, Shimon, E. Carayannis, A. Preston, "The Virtual Utility: Some Introductory Thoughts on Accounting, Technological Learning & Valuation of Radical Innovation," Proceedings of the Symposium on The Virtual Utility, (1996), p. 37.
Awerbuch, Shimon, E. Carayannis, A. Preston，“虚拟公用事业：关于会计、技术学习和激进创新估值的一些初步思考”，《虚拟公用事业研讨会论文集》，（1996 年），第 37 页。

Heilemann, John, "It's the New Economy, Stupid," Wired, Vol. 4, No. 3 (March) 1996, p. 70.
海勒曼，约翰，“这是新经济，笨蛋”，《连线》杂志，第 4 卷，第 3 期（1996 年 3 月），第 70 页。

Lamarre, Leslie, "Renewables in a Competitive World," EPRI Journal, Vol. 20, No. 6 (November/December) 1995, p. 16.
Lamarre, Leslie，“竞争世界中的可再生能源”，EPRI 杂志，第 20 卷，第 6 期（1995 年 11 月/12 月），第 16 页。

Linden, Henry, D. Oleson, C. Tedmon, A. Roeder, T. Casten, R. Fri, "Technology: Change Agent in Global Restructuring," Electricity Journal, Vol. 8, No. 10 (December) 1995, p. 54.
林登，亨利，D.奥莱森，C.泰德蒙，A.罗德，T.卡斯滕，R.弗里，“技术：全球重组的变革推动者”，《电力杂志》，第 8 卷，第 10 期（1995 年 12 月），第 54 页。

Moore, Curtis, A. Miller, Green Gold: Japan, Germany, the United States, and the Race for Environmental Techology, Boston: Beacon Press, 1994.
摩尔，柯蒂斯，A. 米勒，《绿色黄金：日本、德国、美国与环境技术竞赛》，波士顿：灯塔出版社，1994 年。

Rábago, Karl, "The Electric Message from the Information Revolution," Energy Daily, Feb. 27 (1996), p. 5.
Rábago, Karl，《信息革命中的电子信息》，《能源日报》，1996 年 2 月 27 日，第 5 页。

Part III 第三部分

The Virtual Utility: Planning and Strategic Investment Analysis
虚拟公用事业：规划和战略投资分析

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY: SOME
虚拟公用事业：一些

INTRODUCTORY THOUGHTS ON
关于引言的初步思考

ACCOUNTING, LEARNING AND THE
会计，学习和

VALUATION OF RADICAL INNOVATION
激进创新的估值

Shimon Awerbuch 西蒙·阿韦布赫

Energy Finance and Economics
能源金融与经济

Elias G. Carayannis 伊利亚斯·G·卡拉亚尼斯

George Washington University
乔治·华盛顿大学

Alistair Preston 艾利斯泰尔·普雷斯顿

University of New Mexico
新墨西哥大学

ABSTRACT 摘要

This paper examines the problems associated with the application of traditional capital budgeting practices to the valuation of radically new processes and technologies in an environment of rapid technological change.
本文研究了在快速技术变革的环境中，将传统资本预算实践应用于对根本性新过程和技术的估值所面临的问题。
It focuses on a restructured utility industry, and the possible emergence of the Virtual Utility.
它专注于重组的公用事业行业，以及虚拟公用事业的可能出现。

Different types of technological innovation are discussed. The paper then illustrates how capital budgeting, by virtue of its accounting orientation, often fails to identify important benefit categories associated with emerging technologies.
讨论了不同类型的技术创新。然后，本文说明了由于其会计导向，资本预算往往无法识别与新兴技术相关的重要利益类别。
Finally, the paper offers suggestions for enhancing the capital budgeting process by making
最后，本文提出了通过制定更加详细的资本预算流程来提升资本预算过程的建议
qualitative assessments to better understand the benefit implications of architectural innovations such as the Virtual Utility.
定性评估以更好地理解虚拟公用事业等建筑创新的效益影响。

INTRODUCTION 介绍

"The US electric utility industry is in the midst of a dramatic restructuring. However, it is unclear what kind of industry will emerge.
美国电力公用事业行业正处于一场剧烈的重组之中。然而，尚不清楚将会出现何种类型的行业。
A patchwork of unfolding national and state deregulation has put the restructuring in motion, but there is no defined end-point." (Navarro, 1996: 112).
一系列国家和州级的放松管制措施已经推动了重组进程，但没有明确的终点。

American electric utilities are undergoing significant regulatory, market and technological changes.
美国的电力公用事业正在经历重大的监管、市场和技术变革。
In order to rise to the challenges of the new, competitive environment utilities will need to enhance the manner in which capital investment (capital budgeting) decisions have traditionally been made.

This paper examines the problems associated with the application of traditional capital budgeting practices to conduct benefit-cost analyses of radically new concepts and technologies in an environment of rapid technological, market, and regulatory change.
为了应对新的竞争环境的挑战，公用事业公司需要改进传统资本投资（资本预算）决策的方式。本文研究了在技术、市场和监管快速变化的环境中，应用传统资本预算实践进行全新概念和技术的效益成本分析所面临的问题。
The paper explores different kinds of technological innovation and illustrates how capital budgeting may fail to identify important benefit categories.
本文探讨了不同类型的技术创新，并说明了资本预算可能无法识别重要的效益类别。

This paper does not propose a new set of algorithms for this changing environment; indeed they may become obsolete before new projects are brought on line.
本文不提出针对这个变化环境的新算法集合；事实上，在新项目上线之前，它们可能已经过时了。
Rather, it examines the potential benefit of revised capital budgeting approaches that are sensitive to the limitations of the underlying accounting information and the positive impact of technological learning in the valuation of new technologies.
相反，它考察了对修订后的资本预算方法的潜在益处，这些方法对基础会计信息的限制敏感，并且对新技术的估值具有技术学习的积极影响。
The paper concludes with some suggestions for improving capital budgeting by making qualitative assessments to better understand the benefit implications of architectural innovations such as the Virtual Utility (VU).
该论文总结了一些关于通过进行定性评估来改进资本预算的建议，以更好地理解虚拟实用工具（VU）等建筑创新的效益影响。

Dramatic industry restructuring is not unique to electric utilities.
戏剧性的行业重组并不仅限于电力公用事业。
Nearly every institution or major sector of the US economy has, or is currently, undergoing similar dramatic change: manufacturing underwent similar striking changes in the mid 1970s; the financial service industry did likewise in the 1980s; health care, which began its restructuring and, in the late 1980s, continues to undergo changes today.
几乎美国经济的每个机构或主要部门都经历了或正在经历类似的巨大变革：制造业在 20 世纪 70 年代中期经历了类似的显着变化；金融服务行业在 20 世纪 80 年代也是如此；医疗保健在 20 世纪 80 年代末开始重组，并且至今仍在经历变化。
Of course, these are not the only cases; telecommunications, natural gas and even government provide additional examples. The forces driving restructuring differ in each case.
当然，这些并不是唯一的例子；电信、天然气甚至政府都提供了其他的例子。推动重组的力量在每种情况下都不同。
In manufacturing, for example, market forces and new process technologies drove change; in health care, the transformation was driven by regulation, which in turn created a radically different market environment for health care organizations.
例如，在制造业中，市场力量和新的工艺技术推动了变革；在医疗保健领域，变革是由监管驱动的，这反过来为医疗保健机构创造了一个完全不同的市场环境。
In the case of electric utilities, the forces driving restructuring represent a complex interplay of radical regulatory, market and technological changes.
在电力公用事业的情况下，推动重组的力量代表了激进的监管、市场和技术变革的复杂相互作用。

While differences exist among these industries, there are commonalities as well and utilities stand to learn from the survivors of change in other industries.
虽然这些行业存在差异，但也有共同之处，公用事业公司可以从其他行业中的变革幸存者中学到一些东西。
Indeed, learning is an underlying theme of this paper and if the experiences of other industries are an indication, utility decision makers (engineers and managers) will need to learn:
确实，学习是本文的一个基本主题，如果其他行业的经验是一个指示，公用事业决策者（工程师和经理）将需要学习：

To re-conceptualize the way in which electricity is generated, transmitted, distributed, marketed, metered, paid for, and conceived as a product;
重新构思电力的发电方式、传输方式、分配方式、市场营销方式、计量方式、支付方式以及作为产品的概念；
To change the manner in which they conceive and measure performance;
改变他们构思和衡量绩效的方式；
Re-conceptualize the way they view their relationship with customers, other utilities, non utility generators and independent power producers, regulators and different components of their own firms (e.g.
重新构思他们与客户、其他公用事业公司、非公用事业发电厂和独立发电厂、监管机构以及自身公司的不同组成部分之间的关系方式。
generation, transmission and distribution) that previously defined them as utilities.
发电、输电和配电，这些曾经定义公共事业的领域。
To learn new ways to gather and record information, plan and control the use of resources, organize and make decisions.
学习收集和记录信息的新方法，规划和控制资源的使用，组织和做出决策。

The scope of these changes is obviously enormous and this paper focuses on two of the aspects: i) the need to learn enhanced capital budgeting (i.e.
这些变化的范围显然是巨大的，本文重点关注其中的两个方面：i) 学习增强的资本预算（即
investment analysis) processes in the forthcoming environment of radical innovation, and ii) the need to learn new ways to monitor and control the costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity. Both of these will be needed in the new utility environment.
在即将到来的激进创新环境中，需要进行投资分析过程，并且需要学习新的方法来监控和控制发电、传输和分配电力的成本。这两者在新的公用事业环境中都是必需的。

The structure of this paper is as follows. First we introduce the idea of the "economic engineering mentality," a view that has dominated utility capital budgeting and cost control throughout this century.
本文的结构如下。首先，我们介绍了“经济工程思维”的概念，这种观点在整个世纪的公用事业资本预算和成本控制中占据主导地位。
Second we examine the notion of the Virtual Utility (VU), arguing that a new mentality or way of conceptualizing capacity investment and cost control problems are needed.
其次，我们考察虚拟公用事业（VU）的概念，认为需要一种新的思维方式或概念化能力投资和成本控制问题的方法。
The third section of the paper examines the problems of traditional capital budgeting or benefit-cost procedures as applied to radical new concepts or technologies in an environment of rapid technological, market, and regulatory change.
本文的第三部分探讨了传统资本预算或成本效益程序在快速技术、市场和监管变化的环境中应用于激进新概念或技术时所面临的问题。
This section explores technological innovation and illustrates how capital budgeting may fail to identify important benefit categories.
本节探讨了技术创新，并说明了资本预算可能无法识别重要的收益类别。
The final sections discuss the limitations of traditional utility accounting systems and outline a different approach to understanding and controlling maintenance costs for fossil generating stations.
最后几节讨论了传统公用事业会计系统的局限性，并概述了一种不同的方法来理解和控制化石发电站的维护成本。
The paper concludes with suggestions for improving capital budgeting and cost control processes in utilities.
该论文总结了改进公用事业的资本预算和成本控制流程的建议。

THE ECONOMIC ENGINEERING MENTALITY
经济工程思维

A comparison of manufacturing, health care and electric utilities suggests that in each of these industries a particular type of "expert mentality" rose to dominate the way in which problems were generally conceptualized and solved.
制造业、医疗保健和电力公用事业的比较表明，在这些行业中，一种特定类型的“专家心态”在问题的概念化和解决方式上占据主导地位。
For example, in the case of manufacturing, it was the efficiency expert, trained in the F.W. Taylor School of Scientific Management, that emerged as the dominant expert [Loft,
例如，在制造业的情况下，受过 F.W.泰勒科学管理学校培训的效率专家成为主导专家。

1986]. The "efficiency expert mentality" shows an early preoccupation with cost and capital budgeting which ultimately yielded the most highly evolved system of cost controls (including operations budgeting, standard costing, and financial analysis of capital investment.

1986 年。"效率专家心态"显示出对成本和资本预算的早期关注，最终产生了最高度发展的成本控制系统（包括运营预算、标准成本核算和资本投资的财务分析）。

In the case of health care, by comparison, the physician emerged as the dominant "mentality" with the view that medical treatment could at any one time justify any cost and investment in new technology.
就医疗保健而言，相比之下，医生成为了占主导地位的“心态”，认为医疗治疗可以随时为任何费用和新技术投资辩护。
This convincing position swept aside early cost control initiatives in health care and resulted in little concern with capital budgeting [Preston, 1992] so that the dominance of the physician led to a decisionsupport system removed from cost or profitability considerations.
这个令人信服的立场摒弃了早期的医疗成本控制举措，并导致对资本预算几乎没有关注 [Preston, 1992]，以至于医生的主导地位使得决策支持系统与成本或盈利考虑脱离了联系。
As a result, traditional health care accounting systems evolved into a mere calculus for third party cost reimbursements: instead of cost control systems, hospitals developed "cost finding" and "cost charging" systems. It was not until the 1980s that hospitals began to establish internal cost control and capital budgeting systems. This transformation coincided with the ascendancy of a management mentality in health care that eclipsed the dominant physician.
因此，传统的医疗保健会计系统演变成了第三方成本报销的简单计算：医院不再发展成本控制系统，而是发展了“成本发现”和“成本收费”系统。直到 20 世纪 80 年代，医院才开始建立内部成本控制和资本预算系统。这种转变与医疗保健管理思维的崛起同时发生，这种思维超越了主导地位的医生。

Finally, in the case of utilities, an "engineering-economics mentality" emerged as the dominant approach to cost. Engineering economics is
最后，在公用事业领域，一种“工程经济学思维”成为主导成本的方法。工程经济学是一种

Body of knowledge devoted to the systematic evaluation of the net worth of benefits resulting from proposed engineering and business ventures in relation to the expenditures associated with those undertakings.
与所涉及的工程和商业计划相关的支出相比，系统评估由这些计划带来的利益净值的知识体系。
Accordingly, economic analyses that primarily involve engineering and technical projects commonly are called engineering economy studies (DeGarmo, et. al. 1984, 4).
因此，主要涉及工程和技术项目的经济分析通常被称为工程经济研究（DeGarmo 等，1984 年，4 页）。

The engineering-economics mentality reveals a decision focus almost exclusively preoccupied with justifying investment in bigger and better central generating stations with the aim of improving the engineering efficiency of the generating process.
工程经济学的思维方式几乎完全专注于为投资更大、更好的中央发电站提供理由，以提高发电过程的工程效率。
Hirsh (1989) has demonstrated that every ten years, generating stations increased tenfold in size and became ten times more efficient.
Hirsh（1989）已经证明，每十年发电站的规模增加了十倍，并且效率提高了十倍。
What is important is that the decision models for the economic engineering mentality could readily be met with relatively simple benefit/cost measurement and capital budgeting processes (such as the revenue-requirements model).
重要的是，经济工程思维的决策模型可以很容易地满足相对简单的效益/成本测量和资本预算过程（如收入要求模型）。
In addition, the argument (and demonstrable proof) that larger, more efficient stations resulted in lower

-cost needed only simple, aggregated cost accounting systems: costs could simply be recorded as Fuel costs or Operation & Maintenance (O&M) costs

and these could, in turn, be divided by

output to yield a simple average cost per

. In a regulated environment with low rates of technological change, where costs could be shown to decline by further investment in larger, more efficient central generating stations, there was no need to develop sophisticated cost control systems.
此外，关于更大、更高效的发电站导致更低成本的论点（和可证明的证据）只需要简单的、汇总的成本会计系统：成本可以简单地记录为燃料成本或运营和维护（O&M）成本，并且这些成本可以按产出进行划分，从而得出每个单位的简单平均成本。在一个受监管的环境中，技术变革率低，可以通过进一步投资于更大、更高效的中央发电站来降低成本，因此不需要开发复杂的成本控制系统。

As a result relatively simple capital budgeting and cost control systems proved reasonably adequate for the first three quarters of this century.
由于这个世纪的前三个季度相对简单的资本预算和成本控制系统被证明是相当合适的。
However, as fossil technology reached stasis in the early 1970s (Hirsh, 1989), the relationship between increased size, increased efficiency and lower cost no longer held. As technological stasis emerged so did the specter of deregulation and competition.
然而，随着化石燃料技术在 20 世纪 70 年代初达到稳定状态（Hirsh，1989），增加规模、提高效率和降低成本之间的关系不再成立。随着技术稳定出现，解除管制和竞争的幽灵也随之出现。
It was at this point that the economic engineering mentality, the traditional capital budgeting process and the accounting systems which had evolved in their support began to lose explanatory power.
在这一点上，经济工程思维、传统的资本预算过程和为其提供支持的会计系统开始失去解释力。
The engineering way of thinking became less convincing and useful, thus setting the stage for a shift. The new utility environment, as discussed in the next section, requires new approaches to capital budgeting and accounting in utilities.
工程思维变得不太令人信服和有用，从而为转变铺平了道路。如下一节所讨论的新的公用事业环境需要在资本预算和会计方面采取新的方法。

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY CONCEPT: RADICAL INNOVATION AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING
虚拟公用事业概念：激进创新与组织学习

The VU can be conceptualized as an entity or model for organizing power generation and distribution by minimizing non-value-adding activities such as excess transactions and excess generation capacity and providing appropriate quality energy on a just-in-time basis.
VU 可以被概念化为一个实体或模型，通过最小化非增值活动（如过多的交易和过多的发电能力）并提供适当质量的能源，以实现电力的生成和分配。
The VU could be a virtual organizational entity, which owns few assets, but rather is comprised of an alliance of various power generation and distribution entities (e.g.
VU 可以是一个虚拟的组织实体，拥有少量资产，而是由各种发电和配电实体（例如）组成的联盟。
non-utility generators-NUGs or independent power producers-IPPs) that utilize a variety of supply options including passive, modular power generation and telecommunication technologies.

Moreover, the VU can be conceived as a producer of high-value-adding intangibles embodied in fully masscustomized electric services.
非公用发电厂（NUGs）或独立发电厂（IPPs）利用各种供应选项，包括被动、模块化发电和电信技术。此外，VU 可以被看作是生产完全个性化电力服务中所体现的高附加值无形资产的生产者。

The VU, with its modular generating technologies, its capabilities to deliver specialized new services and its flexible supply arrangements enabled by new financial instruments such as energy options and futures contracts creates a set of benefits that may differ considerably from the traditional direct benefits usually examined in capital budgeting.
VU 凭借其模块化发电技术、提供专业新服务的能力以及通过能源期权和期货合约等新金融工具实现的灵活供应安排，创造了一系列利益，这些利益可能与传统资本预算中通常考虑的直接利益有很大不同。
For example, while particular generating technologies may or may not demonstrate lower busbar costs,

it is the synergism of the VU organizational structure that produces cost reductions in a manner similar to the way flexible process technology reduced total costs in manufacturing, even though direct costs were not always lowered.
例如，尽管特定的发电技术可能或可能不显示出更低的母线成本，但是 VU 组织结构的协同作用以类似于灵活的工艺技术降低制造总成本的方式产生了成本降低。即使直接成本并不总是降低。

Busbar cost comparisons coupled with relatively little attention to cost control may have been satisfactory in a previous technological era, when output was sold to an essentially captive market and utility resource alternatives were technologically homogeneous, consisting largely of fossil fired options which had essentially the same mix of operating, overhead, capital, transmission and distribution costs.
母线成本比较以及对成本控制相对较少的关注可能在以前的技术时代是令人满意的，当时产量销售给基本上是固定市场的情况下，公用事业资源的替代选择在技术上是同质的，主要由化石燃料选项组成，这些选项基本上具有相同的运营、间接费用、资本、输电和配电成本。
The current environment, however, offers both a considerable range of technological options, including capital intensive solar/renewable such as photovoltaics (PV), and Demand Side Management (DSM) alternatives which have fundamentally different overhead, operating, and capital transmission and distribution costs than traditional central generating plants.
然而，当前的环境提供了一系列技术选择，包括资本密集型的太阳能/可再生能源，如光伏（PV），以及需求侧管理（DSM）的替代方案，其运营、资本传输和分配成本与传统的中央发电厂有根本不同。
Given these differences it is no longer sufficient to select resource options on the basis of their busbar or direct costs alone and it will be no longer possible to pass on inefficient resource utilization to customers.
鉴于这些差异，仅仅根据母线或直接成本选择资源选项已经不再足够，并且不再可能将低效的资源利用转嫁给客户。

Capital Budgeting and Innovation
资本预算和创新

The traditional economic engineering mentality is of limited use in conceptualizing the nature of newly emerging technologies in the VU.

For example, the absence of a mechanical conversion process in PV-based generation renders the deeply rooted engineering model of electricity production, its related notion of efficiency, and the economic engineering performance measures typically associated with fossil generation (i.e.
传统的经济工程思维在概念化新兴技术在 VU 中的性质方面具有有限的用途。例如，光伏发电中缺乏机械转换过程使得电力生产的根深蒂固的工程模型、相关的效率概念以及通常与化石燃料发电相关的经济工程绩效指标（即
the busbar cost measure) of limited value.
母线成本测量的价值有限。

The task of developing new capital budgeting processes for passive technologies requires more than simply reconfiguring analytical routines; it requires a change from the economic engineering approaches that have held sway in the utility industry for so long.
开发被动技术的新资本预算流程的任务不仅仅需要重新配置分析程序，还需要改变长期以来在公用事业行业中占主导地位的经济工程方法。
This task is all the more problematic because of the scale and scope of technological change in the VU environment. Electric utilities were accustomed to incremental innovations in generating technology for much of this century.
由于 VU 环境中技术变革的规模和范围，这项任务变得更加棘手。电力公司在本世纪的大部分时间里习惯了发电技术的渐进式创新。
These exploited the potential of established designs and improvements in the existing functional capabilities of steam powered technology which yielded relatively small improvements to performance, safety, quality, and cost-the value-adding attributes of central station generating technologies (Betz, 1993: 20-21).
这些利用了现有设计的潜力和对蒸汽动力技术现有功能能力的改进，从而在性能、安全性、质量和成本方面取得了相对较小的改进-这些是中央发电站技术的增值属性（Betz，1993：20-21）。
Newly emerging generation technologies, however, often represent radical innovations.
新兴的一代技术往往代表着激进的创新。
These introduce new concepts that depart significantly from past practices hence creating technologies such as fuel cells and PV which are based on a different set of engineering principles and often open up entirely new markets and potential applications (Betz, 1993: 20).
这些引入了与过去实践显着不同的新概念，从而创造了基于不同工程原理的技术，如燃料电池和光伏，通常开辟了全新的市场和潜在应用。（Betz，1993：20）
In addition, radical innovation can change the way system components are linked together.
此外，激进创新可以改变系统组件之间的连接方式。
These system or architectural innovations [Henderson and Clark, 1990] may alter the traditional components used to manufacture electricity thereby altering the nature of the product in a fundamental manner.
这些系统或建筑创新[Henderson 和 Clark，1990]可能改变用于制造电力的传统组件，从而从根本上改变产品的性质。
Although arguably the product still consists of electrons, their creation, availability, quality and delivery options are sufficiently altered to produce benefit categories not previously understood or conceptualized.
尽管可以说该产品仍然由电子组成，但它们的创造、可用性、质量和交付选项已经发生了足够的改变，以产生以前未曾理解或概念化的利益类别。
While traditional economic engineering decision tools were useful for valuing incremental innovation in generation, they are not always work well when applied to radical innovation.

传统的经济工程决策工具在评估发电领域的渐进式创新时很有用，但在应用于激进创新时并不总是有效。

Additional architectural innovation might ensue from the realignment between technology and organizational structure in the emerging VU.
新兴的虚拟现实技术和组织结构之间的重新调整可能会带来额外的建筑创新。
For example, the traditional technological components of the electricity generation and delivery system include: i) inflexible, central-station generating facilities with non-zero marginal costs, coupled with ii) inflexible distribution systems marked by high sunk costs.
例如，电力发电和输送系统的传统技术组成部分包括：i）具有非零边际成本的不灵活的中央发电设施，以及 ii）具有高固定成本的不灵活的配电系统。
Such a system requires significant organizational support and incurs significant overhead and transactions costs (Williamson, 1975).
这样的系统需要大量的组织支持，并产生大量的额外开销和交易成本（Williamson，1975）。
Traditional technology is predicated on hierarchical organizations with broad operational support capabilities and agglomeration (scope/scale) economies.
传统技术基于具有广泛运营支持能力和聚集（范围/规模）经济的分层组织。
New modular technologies, however, may alter this situation just as technological progress has eliminated agglomeration economies in other technology-based processes including diagnostic imaging and health care delivery.
新的模块化技术可能会改变这种情况，就像技术进步消除了其他基于技术的过程中的聚集经济一样，包括诊断成像和医疗服务。
The typical hierarchical structure of an electric utility may dissolve under the VU and re-emerge as a modularized structure operating in a decentralized market economy rather than an agglomeration economy.
电力公司的典型层级结构可能在虚拟实用程序下解体，并重新出现为在分散市场经济中运作的模块化结构，而不是聚集经济。
Traditional capital budgeting techniques which rely exclusively on revenue and expense flows fail to even consider organizational costs let alone the potential organizational synergies of enriching the mix of generating technologies.
传统的资本预算技术仅依赖于收入和费用流，甚至没有考虑组织成本，更不用说丰富发电技术组合的潜在组织协同效应了。

Radical and architectural innovations require new sets of organizational skills and knowledge and thus create problems for existing firms: since it is difficult and costly for them to readjust their skills and knowledge base, such firms face distinct disadvantages in the adoption of the new technology (Henderson and Clark, 1990)

which partly explains why radical new technologies are often diffused through new ventures or start-ups.
激进和建筑创新需要新的组织技能和知识体系，因此给现有企业带来问题：由于调整技能和知识基础困难且成本高昂，这些企业在采用新技术方面面临明显的劣势（Henderson 和 Clark，1990），这在一定程度上解释了为什么激进的新技术通常通过新创企业或初创企业传播。
Because of this requirement for continual renewal and upgrading of organizational skills and capabilities, organizational (Argyris and Schon 1978; Fiol and Lyles 1985; Senge 1990; Teece 1990; Garvin 1993; Dodgson, 1993) and technological learning (Dodgson, 1991a, 1991b; Carayannis, 1994, 1995a, 1995b, 1996) become important.
由于对组织技能和能力的持续更新和升级的要求，组织学习（Argyris 和 Schon 1978; Fiol 和 Lyles 1985; Senge 1990; Teece 1990; Garvin 1993; Dodgson, 1993）和技术学习（Dodgson, 1991a, 1991b; Carayannis, 1994, 1995a, 1995b, 1996）变得重要。
Further, we argue, resistance to technological innovations may in part be explained by entrenched, dominant "mentalities"-ways of conceptualizing business practices, decisions and strategic options-which have given rise to deeply rooted capital budgeting and other organizational processes.
此外，我们认为，对技术创新的抵制可能部分原因是根深蒂固、占主导地位的“心态”——即对商业实践、决策和战略选择的概念化方式——导致了根深蒂固的资本预算和其他组织流程。
And, while enhanced capital budgeting processes provide the foundation for change, a corresponding change in the entrenched mentality requires organizational learning.
而且，尽管加强的资本预算流程为变革提供了基础，但相应的根深蒂固的心态变化需要组织学习。

Argyris and Kaplan (1994) note that successful implementation of new processes and technologies requires three interrelated characteristics of learning.
Argyris 和 Kaplan（1994）指出，成功实施新的流程和技术需要学习的三个相互关联的特征。
First, the "technical theory" supporting change must be demonstrably valid; in particular, its internal consistency and external validity must be established.
首先，支持变革的“技术理论”必须明显有效；特别是，其内部一致性和外部有效性必须得到确认。
Second there must be an educational process often characterized by repetition and experimentation through which organizational participants are convinced that the new processes and technologies are valid and useful.
其次，必须有一个教育过程，通常以重复和实验为特点，通过这个过程，组织参与者被说服相信新的流程和技术是有效和有用的。
Finally, there must be sponsorship of the new technical theory in the organization.
最后，组织必须对新的技术理论进行赞助。
Combined, these three characteristics represent the collective process of organizational learning, which, through repetition and experimentation, enables new ideas, opportunities and technologies to be identified and accepted and new decision making processes be performed better and quicker (Teece, 1990).
这三个特征的结合代表了组织学习的集体过程，通过重复和实验，能够识别和接受新的想法、机会和技术，并更好、更快地进行新的决策过程（Teece，1990）。
Organizational learning is focused on uprooting established notions about decision models and technological change.
组织学习专注于颠覆关于决策模型和技术变革的既定观念。
It involves the development of insights, knowledge, and associations between past actions, the effectiveness of those actions and future actions (Fiol and Lyles, 1985); it is a process involving the detection and correction of error (Argyris and Schon 1978).
它涉及对过去行动、这些行动的有效性以及未来行动之间的洞察力、知识和关联的发展；它是一个涉及错误检测和纠正的过程。
Learning is both an individual and an organizational process which occurs not only through the imitation and emulation of individuals, (e.g.
学习是一个个体和组织的过程，不仅通过个体的模仿和效仿来实现，（例如
teacher-student), but also through joint contributions to the understanding of complex problems so that it requires common communication codes and coordinated search procedures (Teece, et al 1990).
教师和学生之间的沟通不仅仅是通过传授知识（即单向的教师-学生关系），而且还通过共同努力来理解复杂问题，这需要共同的沟通方式和协调的搜索程序（Teece 等，1990 年）。
This paper seeks to demonstrate the validity and stress the necessity of a enhanced approaches to capital budgeting and cost control in electric utilities.
本文旨在证明资本预算和成本控制在电力公用事业中的有效性和必要性，并强调增强方法的重要性。
It attempts to contribute to the educational process necessary for the introduction of new ways of thinking in organizations.
它试图为组织中引入新的思维方式所需的教育过程做出贡献。

THE LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL CAPITAL BUDGETING
传统资本预算的局限性

The Revenue Requirements Method (RRM) and EPRI-TAG concepts used by utilities to evaluate alternative options can be traced back to the beginning of this century, although the procedures did not mature until the post World War II era (Awerbuch et al., 1996).
收入要求方法（RRM）和公用事业用于评估替代选项的 EPRI-TAG 概念可以追溯到本世纪初，尽管这些程序直到二战后时期才成熟（Awerbuch 等，1996 年）。
These procedures were conceived in a different technological era, and, as appliea, no longer work well.
这些程序是在一个不同的技术时代构思出来的，而且在应用时已经不再有效。
Generally, discounted cash flow procedures (and their utility derivatives-RRM and TAG) were developed for manufacturing and generating technologies with specific characteristics: they were active, expense-intensive and possessed a finite durability.

The technologies were active in the sense that fuel, labor and overhead inputs were consumed by mechanical processes and converted into measurable outputs.
通常，贴现现金流程（以及其效用衍生物-RRM 和 TAG）是为具有特定特征的制造和发电技术开发的：它们是活跃的、费用密集型且具有有限的耐久性。这些技术是活跃的，意味着燃料、劳动力和间接费用输入被机械过程消耗，并转化为可测量的产出。
The continual input of resources, as well as the maintenance of the mechanical processes were, from a financial point of view, expense-intensive.
持续投入资源以及维护机械流程从财务角度来看是费用密集型的。
The characteristic of finite durability ensured that each day of using machinery required increasing operating/maintenance costs and falling returns thus bringing the ultimate replacement of the complete mechanical process that much closer.
有限耐久性的特点确保了每天使用机械都需要增加的运营/维护成本和逐渐下降的回报，从而使完全机械化过程的最终替代变得更加接近。

In addition, utility generation technologies were marked by relatively low rates of technological progress. This has several implications.
此外，公用事业发电技术的技术进步率相对较低。这有几个影响。
First, in such an environment, the useful life of a particular asset can be conceptualized as being driven by the rate at which that asset wears out.
首先，在这样的环境中，特定资产的有用寿命可以被概念化为资产磨损的速度驱动。
Since technology remains essentially constant, an asset with low wear on it will be worth a relatively high proportion of its original value. This does not hold when rates of technological change are high, e.g.
由于技术基本保持不变，低磨损的资产将相对于其原始价值而言价值较高。但在技术变化速度较快的情况下，这种情况不成立，例如...
computers, where the value of a used asset has more to do with rates of technological change than with how much "wear" it has had (e.g. how many hours it has been used).
计算机，其中一个使用资产的价值更多地与技术变化的速度有关，而不是它的“磨损”程度（例如，使用了多少小时）。
Moreover, low rates of technological change suggest that a new machine will have only incremental improvements to it.
此外，低技术变革率意味着新机器只会有渐进式的改进。
For example, while the traditional "new" milling machine may have had better speed control and somewhat higher slew rates, it was essentially unchanged and therefore did not require major changes in the way the firm produced its product.
例如，传统的“新型”铣床可能在速度控制和回转速率方面更好，但本质上没有改变，因此不需要对公司生产产品的方式进行重大改变。
As a result, overhead and other support costs did not change much from what they were with the previous machine. This illustrates that the replacement decision, and, for utilities, the capacity addition decision, was at one time well supported by the existing accounting.
因此，总部费用和其他支持成本与之前的机器相比没有太大变化。这说明替换决策以及对公用事业来说，增加产能的决策曾经得到现有会计的很好支持。
Indeed there was little need for intuition: "intangible" benefits, if any, were small.
确实，几乎没有必要依靠直觉：如果有的话，“无形”的好处也很少。

The attributes of activeness, expense-intensity and finite durability could be found in most traditional, process-oriented technologies, whether the product was screws, or kilowatt-hours.
大多数传统的、过程导向的技术都具有活跃性、费用密集性和有限耐久性的特点，无论产品是螺丝还是千瓦时。
However, the nature of technology has changed: new process technology, whether CIM (computer-integrated manufacturing) or

renewables, is frequently capital-intensive which creates important accounting measurement issues since sunk costs are not readily dealt with by the traditional accounting model.
然而，技术的性质已经发生了变化：新的工艺技术，无论是 CIM（计算机集成制造）还是可再生能源，往往是资本密集型的，这就引发了重要的会计测量问题，因为沉没成本在传统会计模型中无法轻易处理。
In addition, new process technologies are often passive, i.e.: there is little distinction between its state of being "in-use" versus its state of being "idle" or "off"; costs are virtually the same, which suggests a marginal cost function radically different from what utility economists and planners are used to seeing,

These characteristic also make it harder to allocate costs to output: the personal computer, for example, loses value not in relation to the hours it is used, but as a consequence of technological progress in the industry.

Finally, passive technologies possess essentially infinite durability - their actual use contributes little to their "wearing out." Indeed, given today's shorter manufacturing life-cycles and high rates of technological change, technology becomes functionally obsolete before "wearing out" in the traditional sense.
此外，新的工艺技术通常是被动的，即其“使用中”与“闲置”或“关闭”状态之间几乎没有区别；成本几乎相同，这表明边际成本函数与公用事业经济学家和规划者习惯看到的截然不同。这些特点也使得成本分配更加困难：例如，个人电脑的价值不是与其使用时间相关，而是由于行业技术进步的结果。最后，被动技术具有基本无限的耐久性-它们的实际使用对其“磨损”几乎没有贡献。实际上，鉴于今天较短的制造生命周期和高速的技术变革率，技术在传统意义上“磨损”之前就已经在功能上过时了。
Characteristics of passive, capital-intensive technology are not consistent with the ideas underlying the economic engineering mentality which attempts to reconfigure and mold the attributes into a traditional capital budgeting model with the consequence that it fails to appropriately capture the true costs and benefits of passive technology.
被动、资本密集型技术的特点与经济工程思维的理念不一致，后者试图将这些特点重新配置和塑造成传统的资本预算模型，结果无法恰当地捕捉到被动技术的真实成本和收益。

The investment decision for passive, capital-intensive technologies is considerably more complicated, and accounting information no longer provides adequate decision support.

This affects the valuation of the VU which is based, in part, on passive generating and telecommunications technologies that radically alter the manner in which electricity is produced and delivered.
被动、资本密集型技术的投资决策更加复杂，会计信息不再提供足够的决策支持。这影响了基于被动发电和电信技术的估值，这些技术彻底改变了电力的生产和传输方式。

As suggested at the beginning of the paper, there is much to learn from the experience of other industries that have dealt with the limitations of traditional capital budgeting techniques in response to rapidly changing environments.
正如本文开头所建议的那样，我们可以从其他行业的经验中学到很多，这些行业在应对快速变化的环境中已经处理过传统资本预算技术的限制。
The following section explores the inherent limitations of traditional capital budgeting and accounting measurement.
以下部分探讨传统资本预算和会计测量的固有限制。

THE LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL ACCOUNTING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING
传统会计和资本预算的局限性

The shortcomings of capital budgeting as applied to the evaluation of CIM and other new passive process technologies have received considerable attention (see for example: Kaplan, 1986).
资本预算在评估 CIM 和其他新型被动工艺技术时存在的缺点已经引起了相当大的关注（例如：Kaplan，1986 年）。
In addition, traditional capital budgeting has been criticized as underlying the myopic investment strategies of American firms during the last two decades (Hayes and Garvin 1982; Hayes and Abernathy 1980).
此外，传统的资本预算被批评为在过去二十年间美国企业的短视投资策略的基础（Hayes 和 Garvin 1982; Hayes 和 Abernathy 1980）。
Indeed, it is suggested that traditional capital budgeting techniques have a dismal record in identifying promising new technologies, and have failed to see the important benefits of such major innovations as computers, CIM, computer-aided design (CAD) and robotics (see Awerbuch, 1993a).
事实上，有人建议传统的资本预算技术在识别有前景的新技术方面表现不佳，并未意识到计算机、CIM、计算机辅助设计（CAD）和机器人等重大创新的重要好处（参见 Awerbuch，1993a）。
In a similar vein, we would argue that RRM and EPRI-TAG models have failed to fully recognize the value-adding benefits of passive, distributed generation alternatives because of their myopic focus on direct cost.
在类似的情况下，我们认为 RRM 和 EPRI-TAG 模型未能充分认识到被动式分布式发电替代方案的增值效益，因为它们过于狭隘地关注直接成本。
In this respect, we argue that the benefits of new process technologies in electricity generation can be fully understood only through the use of more robust capital-budgeting techniques based on more powerful accounting vocabularies.
在这方面，我们认为只有通过使用更强大的会计词汇基础上更健壮的资本预算技术，才能充分理解电力发电中新工艺技术的好处。

In short, newly emergent technologies have distinctly different benefit/cost attributes which must be captured by enhanced investment decision models. We contend that traditional capital budgeting techniques constitute an impediment to learning.
简而言之，新兴技术具有明显不同的效益/成本属性，这些属性必须通过改进的投资决策模型来捕捉。我们认为传统的资本预算技术是学习的障碍。
They are rooted in the mechanical concept of production whose attributes coincide with the deeply entrenched economic engineering mentality of the electric utility industry.
它们根植于生产的机械概念，其属性与电力公用事业行业根深蒂固的经济工程心态相一致。
New, more robust approaches must recognize, if not quantify, the atypical benefit/cost attributes of new technologies. The next section discusses some of the "atypical" benefit attributes ignored by traditional capital budgeting.
新的、更强大的方法必须认识到，如果不能量化，也要认识到新技术的非典型的效益/成本属性。下一节将讨论一些传统资本预算忽视的“非典型”效益属性。

The Attributes of New Process Technologies in Manufacturing
制造业中新工艺技术的特点

A fundamental capital budgeting lesson to be gained from the experience in manufacturing is that new technologies provide an indivisible bundle of benefit/cost attributes which invariably will differ from those of the conventional technology (Figure 1).
从制造业的经验中可以得出一个基本的资本预算教训，即新技术提供了一组不可分割的效益/成本属性，这些属性与传统技术的属性必然不同（图 1）。

Figure 1. Evaluating New Technology.
图 1. 评估新技术。

Technologles Provide a Bundle of Benefit-Cost Aftributes
技术提供了一系列的成本效益属性

Most Attributes Have No Direct Accounting Measure
大多数属性没有直接的会计度量

This was not generally the case in previous technological eras, where, given low rates of technological progress, a new machine may have differed only incrementally from the previous vintage.
这在以往的技术时代通常不是这样的情况，因为技术进步缓慢，新机器可能只是与上一代略有不同。
Although the differences between new and existing technology choices are generally multidimensional, traditional analyses tend to focus on only one attribute-direct cost-both initial and operating. It is easy to see why this happens.
尽管新技术和现有技术选择之间的差异通常是多维的，但传统分析往往只关注一个属性-直接成本，包括初始成本和运营成本。很容易理解为什么会出现这种情况。
Most of the important attributes of new process technologies have no direct accounting measure and are therefore easy to ignore or to relegate to the "intangibles" category.

新工艺技术的大部分重要属性没有直接的会计衡量标准，因此很容易被忽视或归类为“无形资产”类别。

The traditional focus on cost ignores other important technology attributes such as throughput, and quality which in some cases are the important cost drivers.

Other attributes which drive cost relate to the way in which new technologies affect project risk, reversibility and flexibility, all of which have by now been widely recognized.

For example, we may be able to estimate a set of expected manufacturing costs for a capital-intensive CIM process and compare them to the expected costs under the current labor-intensive process although the two are not directly comparable: a labor-intensive process is subject to the vagaries of the labor market while the capital-intensive process presents a set of known, up-front outlays coupled with very low annual operating costs.
传统的成本关注忽视了其他重要的技术属性，如吞吐量和质量，这在某些情况下是重要的成本驱动因素。其他驱动成本的属性与新技术如何影响项目风险、可逆性和灵活性有关，这些已经被广泛认可。例如，我们可以估计资本密集型 CIM 过程的一组预期制造成本，并将其与当前劳动密集型过程的预期成本进行比较，尽管这两者并不直接可比：劳动密集型过程受劳动市场的变化影响，而资本密集型过程则需要一系列已知的前期支出以及非常低的年度运营成本。
Barring implementation problems, the costs of capital-intensive processes are known with near-certainty.

除非实施问题，否则资本密集型过程的成本几乎可以确定。

The flexibility attributes likewise play an important role in electricity generation.
灵活性属性同样在电力发电中起着重要作用。
Conventional, fuel-intensive technology is inflexible: it requires the firm to commit to the construction of large, irreversible, central-station plants, such as coal, some ten years prior to completion of the plant.
传统的、燃料密集型技术是不灵活的：它要求企业在建设大型、不可逆转的中央电站（如煤炭电站）之前，提前十年做出承诺。
The construction period is fraught with uncertainty-environmental and siting permits, various local, state and federal approvals, etc. Assuming the project survives these hurdles, it must operate per the original forecast, by now, easily ten to fifteen years old.
建设期充满了不确定性-环境和选址许可，各种地方、州和联邦批准等。假设项目能够克服这些障碍，它必须按照最初的预测运营，而这些预测可能已经有十到十五年的历史了。

In contrast, a PV project can be more readily moved to meet changing geographic demand; in addition, its scope can be readily altered, or, it can be sold; the modules may not fetch their original cost but will at least fetch some respectable proportion.

Hence, under the VU environment a new option set emerges, created by the modular capability of new generating alternatives including small gas turbines, PV and other renewables. This capability can be seen in several different ways.
相比之下，光伏项目可以更容易地移动以满足不断变化的地理需求；此外，它的范围可以轻松改变，或者可以出售；光伏模块可能无法达到其原始成本，但至少可以获得一定比例的收益。因此，在可变性环境下，出现了一组新的选择，由新的发电替代方案（包括小型燃气轮机、光伏和其他可再生能源）的模块化能力所创造。这种能力可以从几个不同的角度来看待。
First, it means that these technologies can be installed in small increments as load grows, much the same way the local telephone company installs central-office equipment. It also means that projects can be scaled back or moved geographically, should conditions change.
首先，这意味着这些技术可以随着负载增长逐步安装，就像当地电话公司安装中央办公设备一样。这也意味着项目可以根据情况进行缩减或地理转移。
The rapid response to changing load and other conditions reduces uncertainty associated with the long lead-times of traditional, lumpy central-station technologies.

It also greatly reduces the enormous overhead costs of planning and implementing lumpy central-station investments.
快速响应变化的负载和其他条件减少了传统笨重的中央电站技术长时间提前期所带来的不确定性。它还大大降低了规划和实施笨重的中央电站投资所需的巨大间接成本。

Flexibility/reversibility therefore means that modular PV installations, though they are highly capital intensive, may actually have lower sunk costs and hence can be salvaged at some reasonable fraction of their original cost [e.g. see Hoff in this volume].
灵活性/可逆性意味着模块化光伏安装虽然资本投入较高，但实际上可能具有较低的固定成本，因此可以以原始成本的一定比例进行挽救[例如，参见本卷中的霍夫]。
This is in comparison to inflexible technology, say a coal plant, where the sunk costs of, for example, engineering design and (literally) bricks and mortar mean that once completed, such plants will generally have a negligible or even negative salvage value.
这与不灵活的技术相比，比如燃煤发电厂，其中的沉没成本，例如工程设计和（字面上的）砖瓦，意味着一旦建成，这些发电厂通常几乎没有或甚至有负的残值。
The ability to move or scale-back generating projects reduces risk, and, moreover, enhances the likelihood of demand-supply equilibrium.
移动或缩减发电项目的能力降低了风险，而且增加了需求与供应平衡的可能性。

Figure 1 showed the set of strategic/capability options provided by new technology.
图 1 显示了新技术提供的战略/能力选择集。
This option-set suggests that by adopting a new process technology, firms may develop certain capabilities which Baldwin and Clark (1992), define as "groups of expenditures, which, when taken as a whole, represent an investment for the firm." This suggests that process technology should be adopted under certain situations, even where the present values are relatively low, because the investment is needed to stay on the learning curve, i.e.
这个选项集表明，通过采用新的工艺技术，企业可以发展出鲍德温和克拉克（1992 年）所定义的“一组支出，当作为一个整体时，代表了企业的投资。”这表明，在某些情况下应该采用工艺技术，即使现值相对较低，因为需要投资以保持在学习曲线上。
to create the options for subsequent technology adoption in the future.

New technology generally also provides a different set of environmental attributes which are often more benign. Our tools for measuring these benefits are poor.
为了未来的技术采用创造选择。新技术通常也提供了一组不同的环境属性，往往更加良性。我们衡量这些好处的工具很差。
Even poorer is our ability to value the results intertemporally, where theoretical as well as practical impediments exist.

我们对跨时间评估结果的能力更加有限，其中存在理论和实际的障碍。

ASSET VALUATION UNDER RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
快速技术变革下的资产估值

Valuing electric resource options in an environment of rapid technological change presents special challenges not traditionally faced by utility planners.
在快速技术变革的环境中评估电力资源选择面临着传统公用事业规划者所未曾面对的特殊挑战。
In such an environment, traditional, relatively static valuation models do not generally allow managers to properly evaluate radical and architectural innovations.
在这样的环境下，传统的、相对静态的估值模型通常不能让管理者正确评估激进和架构创新。

Figure 2 illustrates this problem. It shows the expected output or performance level relative to the required investment for two hypothetical process technologiesan established, dominant technology and a "challenger"-a new innovative process.
图 2 说明了这个问题。它展示了两种假设的工艺技术（一种是已经建立起来的、占主导地位的技术，另一种是一种新的创新工艺）相对于所需投资的预期产出或绩效水平。
The established technology, which is depicted as being in the middle range of its

- shaped curve,

i.e. it has not yet fully matured, is "challenged" by a radical or architectural innovation.

We assume that managers have continually improved the established process over time, and, through experience, have found that a

investment in process improvement raises output from Q1 to Q2, an increase in output of

. The quantity

can be thought of as an increased physical quantity produced, a quality improvement, throughput enhancement or cost reduction.
被描绘为处于其“b0”形状曲线中间范围的已建立技术，即尚未完全成熟，受到了一项激进或架构创新的“挑战”。我们假设经理们随着时间的推移不断改进已建立的流程，并通过经验发现，对流程改进的“b3”投资将产出从 Q1 提高到 Q2，即产量增加了“b4”。数量“b5”可以被视为增加的物理产量、质量改进、吞吐量增强或成本降低。

Figure 2. The Capital Budgeting Problem-Cost and Performance: New vs. Established Technology.
图 2. 资本预算问题-成本和绩效：新技术与成熟技术。

Adapted from Richard Foster, Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage.
改编自理查德·福斯特的《创新：攻击者的优势》。

Let's say that managers are aware of the new process but are reluctant to adopt it because it seems "too risky" relative to a strategy of continued incremental enhancements to the existing process.
假设管理者们意识到了这个新流程，但由于相对于持续增量改进现有流程的策略来说，它似乎“过于冒险”，所以他们不愿采用。
Kaplan (1986) and others have criticized the managerial tendency to undertake incremental improvements over major, radical ones, but, as Figure 2 illustrates, such a strategy may indeed make good sense from a manager's point of view.
Kaplan（1986 年）和其他人批评管理者倾向于进行渐进式改进而非重大、根本性的改变，但正如图 2 所示，从管理者的角度来看，这样的策略确实是明智的。

Indeed, the basis for managers' reluctance to adopt radical innovation may be seen quite directly: observe that in order to attain an output level of Q2 with the new process, managers will have to make a much larger initial investment,

'. Using standard, accounting-based capital budgeting procedures this investment appears too risky and the incremental improvement to the established process (represented by

) seems a much safer bet.
事实上，经理们不愿采用激进创新的基础可以直接看出：观察到为了通过新的流程达到 Q2 的产出水平，经理们将不得不进行更大规模的初始投资，

。使用标准的、基于会计的资本预算程序，这种投资似乎过于冒险，而对已建立流程的渐进改进（由

表示）似乎更为安全。

But this view is static: it ignores efficiency gains likely to be attained by each technology as it progresses along a learning or experience curve (see for example: Utterback and Kim, 1985; Abernathy and Wayne, 1974).
但这种观点是静态的：它忽视了随着技术在学习或经验曲线上的进步而可能实现的效率提升（例如参见：Utterback 和 Kim，1985 年；Abernathy 和 Wayne，1974 年）。
While this view is therefore defective as Kaplan (1990) and others have argued, the failure does not necessarily reflect an inherent weakness in the discounted cash flow (DCF) model.
尽管卡普兰（1990）和其他人认为，这种观点存在缺陷，但这种失败并不一定反映了贴现现金流量（DCF）模型的固有弱点。
Rather, the problem centers on mechanical application of DCF which often omits technological progress and learning considerations that might highlight the ultimate efficiencies of the new process relative to the established one.
相反，问题集中在对 DCF 的机械应用上，这往往忽略了可能突出新工艺相对于已建立的工艺的最终效率的技术进步和学习考虑。

And this goes to the heart of the problem described by Kaplan (1990): over time each incremental investment to the established process is made by managers on the basis of the static view since little reliable information exists about the future.
这正是 Kaplan（1990）所描述的问题的核心所在：随着时间的推移，每一次对已建立流程的增量投资都是基于静态视角进行的，因为对未来几乎没有可靠的信息。
Given such information about future performance and price managers would recognize that it is in their interest to adopt the new process early so that they can develop capabilities which will better position them to fully exploit the new technology before competitors make their switch.

鉴于这样关于未来表现和价格的信息，经理们会意识到早期采用新流程符合他们的利益，这样他们就能够发展能力，更好地利用新技术，以在竞争对手转变之前占据更有利的位置。

The manager's problem, of course is that information of the type presented in Figure 2 is not available ex ante, but only with hindsight, where it does little to help the decision process.
经理的问题，当然是因为图 2 中呈现的这种类型的信息事先是不可得的，只有事后才能得知，而这对决策过程几乎没有帮助。
Absent such decision information in real time, it is difficult for managers to know when to adopt the new technology so they wait until it becomes the "least cost" on a static, accounting basis.
在没有实时决策信息的情况下，管理者很难知道何时采用新技术，因此他们会等到它在静态会计基础上成为“最低成本”。

With perfect information managers would recognize the future limitations of the established technology, which would suggest that continuing to invest solely in it is wasteful. If they continue to make

investments each year they will end up at point

, whereas by switching early to the new process they will attain the higher output level

. The result is that while each individual

investment appears to be the "least cost" (and lowest risk) at the time, when viewed in total, such "piecemeal" investments in a mature established process only worsen the ultimate outcome: they yield obsolete processes and systems which have been incrementally enhanced over time with no cumulative benefit (Kaplan, 1990).

在完美的信息下，管理者会意识到现有技术的未来限制，这表明继续单纯投资于它是浪费的。如果他们每年继续进行投资，最终会达到点

，而如果早期转向新的流程，他们将达到更高的产出水平

。结果是，尽管每个个体

投资在当时看起来是“最低成本”（和最低风险），但从整体上看，这种对成熟的现有流程的“零散”投资只会恶化最终结果：它们产生过时的流程和系统，这些流程和系统随着时间的推移逐步改进，没有累积效益（Kaplan，1990）。

In valuing the VU and other innovations in electric production and delivery it is important to avoid simplistic, static models to represent more complex dynamic processes.
在评估 VU 和其他电力生产和传输方面的创新时，避免使用简单、静态的模型来代表更复杂的动态过程是很重要的。
While this suggests the need to devote resources to the measurement of technological progress, in order to develop a set of technology cost/performance expectations over time, it also must serve to underscore the limitations of accounting-based capital budgeting models.
尽管这表明需要投入资源来衡量技术进步，以便随时间发展出一套技术成本/性能预期，但也必须强调会计为基础的资本预算模型的局限性。
While current capital budgeting procedures project to the future, they reflect only the past. To make things worse, they are se- verely hampered by the limitations of the accounting vocabulary they employ. These issues are explored next.
尽管当前的资本预算程序是面向未来的，但它们只反映过去。更糟糕的是，它们受到所采用的会计词汇的限制严重阻碍。接下来将探讨这些问题。

THE NEED FOR A NEW ACCOUNTING VOCABULARY
需要一个新的会计词汇

We have suggested that entrenched mentalities, which are based on the characteristics of traditional, active, expense-intensive technologies, influence the way in which capital budgeting techniques are constructed and applied.
我们建议，根植于传统、积极、费用密集型技术特征的固守心态，影响了资本预算技术的构建和应用方式。
In this section we further argue that accounting vocabularies and measurement systems additionally reflect and reinforce entrenched mentalities.
在这一部分中，我们进一步论述会计词汇和测量系统也反映并强化了根深蒂固的思维方式。
In this respect new accounting vocabularies and accounting based information support systems become an important component the educational process of organizational learning.
在这方面，新的会计词汇和基于会计的信息支持系统成为组织学习教育过程中的重要组成部分。
Different accounting vocabularies enable problems to be conceptualized in very different ways and allow entrenched ways of thinking to be challenged.
不同的会计词汇使问题能够以非常不同的方式进行概念化，并且允许对根深蒂固的思维方式进行挑战。

Utility accounting and reporting systems have evolved little since the early 1930s.
公用事业会计和报告系统自 20 世纪 30 年代初以来几乎没有发展。
They are geared primarily to the regulatory need to precisely determine which costs are to be capitalized and subject to depreciation and which are to be expended in the current period; they are intended to report the utility's financial performance position.
它们主要针对监管需求，精确确定哪些成本应予以资本化并受到折旧，哪些应在当前期间支出；它们旨在报告公用事业公司的财务绩效状况。
Like the financial reports of commercial organizations, utility accounts are of little value for management planning, control and decision making in a rapidly changing regulatory and market environment.
像商业组织的财务报告一样，公用事业账户在快速变化的监管和市场环境中对管理规划、控制和决策没有太大价值。
And while utility managers are facing increasingly complex pricing decisions and are under pressure from regulators and competitors to monitor and control the costs of generation, transmission and distribution, they posses inadequate cost information for decision support.
虽然公用事业管理者面临着日益复杂的定价决策，并且受到监管机构和竞争对手的压力，要监控和控制发电、输电和配电的成本，但他们缺乏足够的成本信息来支持决策。
Accounting systems designed for one purpose, i.e.: reporting to regulators, are inadequate for management planning and control.
会计系统的设计目的是向监管机构报告，对于管理规划和控制来说是不足够的。
The FERC chart of accounts [Federal Power Corporation, 1973], though very elaborate in defining assets, categorizes generating costs into only Fuel, Operation and Maintenance

and Depreciation, thus representing a huge agglomeration of different cost types whose relationships to output is only poorly understood.
联邦电力公司（1973 年）的 FERC 账户图表，虽然在定义资产方面非常详细，但将发电成本仅分为燃料、运营和维护以及折旧，因此代表了各种不同成本类型的巨大聚集，其与产出的关系仅被了解得很差。
While some utilities have begun to disaggregate cost information, these systems typically fail to recognize even the simplest notions of fixed and variable costs making it difficult if not impossible to construct cost models for standard costing, planning, and control.
虽然一些公用事业公司已经开始分解成本信息，但这些系统通常无法识别固定成本和变动成本的最基本概念，这使得构建标准成本、计划和控制的成本模型变得困难，甚至不可能。
In addition, it is difficult if not impossible to perform incremental analyses or to evaluate alternative technologies. In short, traditional utility accounting systems fail to identify the nature and behavior of individual generating costs.
此外，要进行增量分析或评估替代技术是困难的，甚至是不可能的。简而言之，传统的公用事业会计系统无法识别个别发电成本的性质和行为。
Given the relatively underdeveloped state of utility cost and management accounting, considerable work is needed in order to provide the cost information necessary for the VU.
鉴于公用事业成本和管理会计的相对不发达，需要进行大量工作，以提供 VU 所需的成本信息。

Activity-Based Costing in Manufacturing
制造业中的活动成本核算

For these accounting issues as well, there are lessons to be learned from other industries such as manufacturing, companies have developed sophisticated cost control techniques in response to competitive pressures.
对于这些会计问题，从制造业等其他行业可以学到一些经验教训，公司已经针对竞争压力发展了复杂的成本控制技术。
Traditionally, manufacturing costs were separated into their fixed and variable components using statistical analyses that, for much of this century, assumed that output volume-the number of units produced-is the only meaningful cost driver which implies that the manufacturing process generates costs only in direct proportion to the volume of units produced.
传统上，制造成本通过统计分析将其固定成本和可变成本分开，这种分析方法在本世纪的大部分时间里假设产出量-即生产的单位数量-是唯一有意义的成本驱动因素，这意味着制造过程仅以单位数量的直接比例产生成本。
Managers ignored fixed costs on the assumption that they were not controllable, i.e.: they had to be incurred in order to provide physical plant and facilities for production.

As a result of stiff international competition and rapidly changing process technologies in the 1970s, however, US manufacturers found it necessary to develop a better understanding of product costs.
经理们忽视了固定成本，因为他们认为这些成本是不可控制的，即：为了提供生产的物理设施和设备，必须承担这些成本。然而，由于 20 世纪 70 年代国际竞争激烈和工艺技术迅速变化，美国制造商发现有必要更好地了解产品成本。
The most touted such technique is Activity-Based Costing (ABC), which has spawned a whole new vocabulary for understanding cost behavior in manufacturing which, in turn, has taught manufacturing managers to re-conceptualize not only the manufacturing process but also the nature of their products and their relationship with customers.
最被吹捧的技术是基于活动的成本核算（ABC），它为理解制造业成本行为创造了全新的词汇，进而教会制造业经理重新构思制造过程，以及产品的本质和与客户的关系。

Unlike traditional cost techniques which focused upon managing direct costs, principally materials and labor (Awerbuch, et. al. 1996), ABC focuses on the tracing and management of overhead costs which, by the 1970s, had risen considerably relative to direct costs.

identifies manufacturing activities (cost drivers) that cause "fixed" costs-those that are not driven by output volume-and charges them to products.
与传统的成本技术不同，传统的成本技术主要关注管理直接成本，即材料和劳动力（Awerbuch 等，1996 年），而 ABC 则关注追踪和管理间接成本，这些成本在 20 世纪 70 年代相对于直接成本大幅上升。ABC 确定了导致“固定”成本（不受产量驱动的成本）的制造活动（成本驱动因素），并将其分配给产品。
Examples of such activities are machine set-ups, quality inspection, product design and the production of waste and defective units.
这些活动的例子包括机器设定、质量检查、产品设计以及废品和次品的生产。
These costs were traditionally largely ignored; managers took them as "givens." Compared to traditional costing systems that assign overhead costs on the basis of arbitrary plant-wide rates such as direct labor hours,

has revealed considerable product crosssubsidization in multi-product firms. In particular,

suggests that high volume, low complexity products with relatively little waste and few machine set-ups and inspections have traditionally subsidized low volume, high complexity products which require similar amounts of direct labor, but which consume considerably greater amounts of overhead activities.
这些成本在传统上往往被忽视；管理者将其视为“已知事实”。与基于任意的整厂费率（如直接劳动时间）分配间接费用的传统成本核算系统相比，

揭示了多产品企业中相当大的产品交叉补贴。特别是，

表明，高产量、低复杂度的产品，其浪费较少、机器调整和检查次数较少，传统上一直在补贴低产量、高复杂度的产品，这些产品需要相似数量的直接劳动，但消耗的间接活动要多得多。
Indeed, understanding the nature of fixed costs-those driven by factors other than output-is important as utilities struggle to remain competitive.
确实，理解固定成本的性质——那些受到除产量以外因素驱动的成本——对于公用事业公司在竞争中保持竞争力是重要的。

Along these lines, a dimension of

that is of particular relevance for utilities is its ability to identify value and non-value-adding activities.
在这方面，对于公用事业公司来说，一个特别相关的维度是其能够识别价值和非增值活动。
The emphasis here is not on product costing, but rather, on improving performance by: i) eliminating or reducing non value-adding costs and ii) increasing the efficiency of value-adding activities.
重点不在于产品成本核算，而是通过以下方式提高绩效：i）消除或减少非增值成本，ii）提高增值活动的效率。
Indeed the control of overhead costs, which was traditionally ignored in manufacturing, has become the factor that gives manufacturers an advantage in their increasingly competitive environment.
事实上，对于制造业来说，传统上被忽视的间接成本控制，已经成为制造商在竞争日益激烈的环境中获得优势的因素。
While ABC has become fairly well es- tablished in manufacturing, it is yet in its infancy in other industries including health care, financial services and utilities.
虽然 ABC 在制造业中已经相当成熟，但在其他行业，包括医疗保健、金融服务和公用事业方面，它仍处于初级阶段。

The Behavior of Utility O&M Costs
公用事业运维成本的行为

Utilities have made little effort to understand the nature and behavior O&M costs. While small in comparison to fuel outlays, their control nevertheless may yield potentially significant cost savings. Analysis of O&M costs requires two steps.
公用事业公司对运维成本的性质和行为了解甚少。尽管与燃料支出相比较小，但控制运维成本仍然可能带来潜在的显著成本节约。分析运维成本需要两个步骤。
The first conforms with traditional managerial (statistical) cost analysis to identify O&M cost components which are fixed with respect to kilowatt-hour output and those which vary with output.
第一个符合传统的管理（统计）成本分析，以确定与每千瓦时产出固定相关的运营和维护成本组成部分，以及与产出变动相关的成本组成部分。
If, as our own preliminary empirical investigations suggest, a considerable proportion of

costs are fixed, then

or other management accounting techniques are needed to identify activities and drivers that cause fixed

costs to be incurred.
如果我们自己的初步实证调查所示，相当大比例的

成本是固定的，那么需要使用

或其他管理会计技术来确定导致固定

成本发生的活动和驱动因素。

Preliminary investigations into the activities and cost drivers of electric utility maintenance costs reveal a number of interesting points. First, fossil fuel plant maintenance is not a single homogeneous activity. Rather, at least five activity centers can be identified:
对电力公用事业维护成本的初步调查揭示了一些有趣的观点。首先，化石燃料发电厂的维护工作并不是一个单一的同质化活动。相反，至少可以确定出五个活动中心：

Planned outages and overhauls;
计划停电和检修；
Forced outages and repairs;
强制停机和维修；
Ongoing maintenance of faults in non critical components;
非关键部件故障的持续维护；
Preventive maintenance 预防性维护
Predictive maintenance. 预测性维护。

Second there exists a hierarchy of cost drivers that cause these five maintenance activities (and their cost) to be incurred. The hierarchy includes (at least) the following three drivers:
其次，存在一种成本驱动因素的层次结构，导致产生这五项维护活动（及其成本）。该层次结构包括（至少）以下三个驱动因素：

Plant Design: Particular generating station engineering design and construction creates inherent or "built-in" in maintenance problems; and therefore, drive maintenance costs.
工厂设计：特定发电站工程设计和建设会产生固有的或“内置”的维护问题；因此，驱动维护成本。
Operating Procedures and Load Type: The manner in which a generating unit is operated may drive maintenance costs. Such operation can vary with the type of load, e.g. contract power for known, specified periods versus for power generation for dispatch.
操作程序和负载类型：发电机组的操作方式可能会影响维护成本。这种操作方式可能因负载类型而异，例如，为已知、指定的时间段提供合同电力，或者为调度发电而提供电力。
In addition, deep cycling of baseload plants to meet base, and intermediate as well and peaking demand will drive maintenance costs differently than if the units were run as baseload only.
此外，为了满足基础、中间和峰值需求，对基础负荷电厂进行深度循环运行将导致维护成本的不同。
Maintenance policy: Maintenance policy itself drives costs in different ways. For example, the typical utility policy of scheduling a standard list of maintenance tasks during a planned outage, whether or not the repairs are necessary, clearly drives maintenance costs up.
维护政策：维护政策本身以不同的方式增加成本。例如，典型的公用事业政策是在计划停机期间安排一份标准的维护任务清单，无论修理是否必要，这显然会增加维护成本。
In contrast, just-in-time maintenance policies, under which repairs are conducted only on those components that need them, drive costs in a very different way.
相比之下，只在需要维修的部件上进行维护的及时维修政策以一种非常不同的方式推动成本。

Designing accounting systems to capture the costs of each of these activities is an important first step to monitoring and then determining whether the various maintenance activities add-value to the generating process.
设计会计系统以捕捉每个活动的成本是监控并确定各种维护活动是否为发电过程增加价值的重要第一步。
Figure 3 outlines the structure of such an accounting system.
图 3 概述了这样一个会计系统的结构。

Figure 3. Map of Accounting System.
图 3. 会计系统地图。

Utility maintenance policies are undergoing frequent changes and tracing costs to activities becomes an essential element for evaluating such changes.
实用维护政策正在频繁变化，将成本追溯到活动中成为评估这些变化的重要因素。
For example, when changing from traditionally scheduled to just-in-time maintenance, it is important to trace costs to activities so the effect of the change can be evaluated.
例如，当从传统的定期维护转变为按需维护时，追踪成本到活动是很重要的，这样可以评估变化的影响。
Of particular importance in this situation is the issue of cost shifting versus cost savings and it may turn out that revised maintenance policies simply shift costs from one maintenance activity to another or from the current to a future period without creating actual cost savings.
在这种情况下，特别重要的是成本转移与成本节约的问题，可能会发现修订后的维护政策只是将成本从一项维护活动转移到另一项活动，或者从当前时期转移到将来时期，而并没有真正创造成本节约。
Indeed, absent adequate cost tracing to activities over time, the value-adding benefits of new maintenance policies are not determinable.
确实，如果没有足够的成本追踪来跟踪活动的时间，新维护政策的增值效益是无法确定的。
For example, a number of utilities are seeking to reduce the cost of planned outages by: i) extending the time between planned outages; ii) deviating from previous scheduled repair/replacement tasks and repairing/replacing only components that are demonstrably faulty, and iii) deferring repair/replacement of partially worn components with the expectation that they will remain functional until the next planned outage.
例如，许多公用事业公司正在寻求通过以下方式降低计划停机的成本：i）延长计划停机之间的时间间隔；ii）偏离以前的计划维修/更换任务，仅修复/更换明显有故障的部件；iii）推迟部分磨损的部件的维修/更换，预计它们将在下次计划停机之前保持正常运行。

If we define the value-added attributes of generating station maintenance costs as those which increase the reliability/availability of the unit in the most cost effective
如果我们将发电站维护成本的增值属性定义为那些以最具成本效益的方式提高机组的可靠性/可用性的属性

Mr. Vesey is now a Vice President of Entergy Corporation, New Orleans, Louisiana.
维西先生现任路易斯安那州新奥尔良的安特吉公司副总裁。
Sometimes called "lean production," perhaps after the usage by Womack, et. al [1991].
有时被称为“精益生产”，可能是在 Womack 等人的使用之后[1991 年]。
For an example involving the steel industry's conversion to the Bessemer process in the early 1800 's see: Kim Clark [1987].
有关钢铁行业在 19 世纪初转向贝塞尔法的例子，请参见：金·克拉克[1987]。
Awerbuch, Preston and Carayannis similarly argue that deeply rooted accounting ideas stem from the previous technological era and do not serve current-vintage technologies well.
Awerbuch、Preston 和 Carayannis 同样认为，根深蒂固的会计观念源自于之前的技术时代，对当前的技术并不适用。

This is analogous to Brian Arthur's recent conclusions; [see: "The New Rules of the Road,", U.S. News and World Report July 8, 1996, page 47].
这类似于布莱恩·亚瑟最近的结论；[参见："The New Rules of the Road,", U.S. News and World Report 1996 年 7 月 8 日，第 47 页]。
Ilic, et. al. [in this volume] offer alternative prescriptions regarding stranded costs.
Ilic 等人[在本卷中]提供了关于滞留成本的替代方案。

Shimon Awerbuch, Alistair Preston, and Elias Carayannis "The Virtual Utility: Some Introductory Thoughts on Accounting, Technological Learning and the Valuation of Radical Innovation;" Raj Aggarwal, "Justifying Investments in New Manufacturing Technology: Implications and Lessons for Utilities;" Richard Bower, "Discussion."
Shimon Awerbuch, Alistair Preston, and Elias Carayannis "虚拟公用事业：关于会计、技术学习和激进创新估值的一些初步思考；" Raj Aggarwal, "为新制造技术的投资提供理由：对公用事业的影响和教训；" Richard Bower, "讨论。"
Chitru Fernando and Paul Kleindorfer, "Integrating Financial and Physical Contracting in Electric Power Markets;" Frank Graves and James Read, Jr., "Capacity Prices in a Competitive Power Market;" Thomas Hoff and Christy Herig, "Managing Risk Using Renewable Energy Technologies," Mark Reeder, “ Discussion.”
Chitru Fernando 和 Paul Kleindorfer，“在电力市场中整合金融和物理合同”；Frank Graves 和 James Read Jr.，“竞争性电力市场中的容量价格”；Thomas Hoff 和 Christy Herig，“利用可再生能源技术管理风险”；Mark Reeder，“讨论”。

8 As a case in point: nobody wants to build transmission in Argentina because they haven't figured out how to pay for it in a competitive market; Wall Street Journal, June 19, 1996.
作为一个例子：没有人愿意在阿根廷建设输电线路，因为他们还没有找到在竞争市场中如何支付的方法。《华尔街日报》，1996 年 6 月 19 日。
9 William G. 9 威廉 G.
Shepherd, "Monopoly and Antitrust Policies in Network-based Markets Such as Electricity," Shmuel Oren & Dennis Ray, "Services in an Unbundled and Open Electric Services Marketplace"; Bridger Mitchell & Peter Spinney, "Technological Change and the Electric Power Industry: Insights from Telecommunications"; Jan Hamrin, Discussion.
牧羊人，“在基于网络的市场（如电力市场）中的垄断和反垄断政策”，Shmuel Oren 和 Dennis Ray，“在一个解耦和开放的电力服务市场中的服务”；Bridger Mitchell 和 Peter Spinney，“技术变革和电力行业：来自电信业的见解”；Jan Hamrin，讨论。

This is the clear lesson that ensues from the recent debacle surrounding Canadian tele-communications deregulation: a number of the most prominent competitors went bankrupt within a year.
这是最近围绕加拿大电信放松管制所发生的惨败中得出的明确教训：一些最知名的竞争对手在一年内破产。
Marija Ilic et. al., Interconnected System Operations and Expansion Planning in a Changing Industry: Coordination vs.
在不断变化的行业中，互联系统的运营和扩展规划：协调与
Competition; Fernando Alvarado Rules of the Road and Electric Traffic Controllers: Making a Virtual Utility Feasible; Hyde Merrill, Ramon Nadira, and Steven Balser, Discussion.
竞争；费尔南多·阿尔瓦拉多的道路规则和电动交通控制器：使虚拟公用事业成为可能；海德·梅里尔，拉蒙·纳迪拉和斯蒂文·巴尔瑟，讨论。
12 Leonard Hyman The Bottom Line: A Summary and Analysis of the Virtual Utility Conference; Carl Weinberg The Virtual Utility and Environmental Stewardship.
12 Leonard Hyman《底线：虚拟公用事业会议的摘要和分析》；Carl Weinberg《虚拟公用事业和环境管理》。
The notion of a the electric utility system stems from discussions of technological systems by Thomas . Hughes. He argues that a system consists of a "seamless web" of elements that a casual observer might label economic, educational, legal, administrative and technical.
电力公用事业系统的概念源自 Thomas Hughes 对技术系统的讨论。他认为，一个系统由一系列元素组成，一个随意的观察者可能会将其标记为经济、教育、法律、行政和技术。
System builders strive to maintain their creation by "construct[ing] or ...forc[ing] unity from diversity, centralization in the face of pluralism, and coherence from chaos." (Hughes 1987, 52). See also Hughes (1983).
系统构建者努力通过“从多样性中构建或强制统一，面对多元主义实现集中化，并从混乱中获得一致性”来维护他们的创造物。（休斯，1987 年，52 页）。另请参阅休斯（1983 年）。
The electric utility system, therefore, consists of more than the utility industry. It includes the entire spectrum of stakeholders and interests involved in the production and use of electricity.
电力公用事业系统因此包括的不仅仅是公用事业行业。它涵盖了参与电力生产和使用的各方利益相关者的整个范围。

In this paper, market structure refers to a business' relationship between buyer and seller. Under the utility consensus, a single firm provided electricity to numerous buyers within a geographical region.
在本文中，市场结构指的是买方和卖方之间的商业关系。在效用共识下，一家公司向一个地理区域内的众多买家提供电力。
Industry structure refers to the number and type of entities producing and selling electricity.
行业结构是指生产和销售电力的实体的数量和类型。
Though the utility industry in the United States consists of federal, state, and municipal producers and sellers of electricity, along with federally-assisted cooperatives, it is still dominated by large, vertically-integrated firms owned by investors.
尽管美国的公用事业行业包括联邦、州和市政府的电力生产商和销售商，以及联邦援助的合作社，但仍然由投资者拥有的大型垂直整合企业主导。
This paper primarily deals with this last category.
本文主要涉及最后一类。
For the purposes of this paper, power can be defined as the employment of resources by individuals and groups to harness the agency of others to comply with one's own ends. Such a definition is based upon the work of Anthony Giddens (Giddens 1979, 262).
为了本文的目的，权力可以定义为个人和团体利用资源来驾驭他人的行动，以达到自己的目的。这样的定义基于安东尼·吉登斯（Giddens 1979, 262）的工作。
The New York law actually called for creation of two commissions, one for New York City and another for the rest of the state. In 1921, the two commissions were combined into one ("New York Goes Back to Single Commission" 1921, 952).
纽约法实际上要求成立两个委员会，一个负责纽约市，另一个负责州内其他地区。1921 年，这两个委员会合并为一个（《纽约回归单一委员会》1921，952）。
As the cost of electricity declined and as its availability increased, the customer base eventually became the general public. When the utility industry began in the , the high cost of power limited its use to factory owners, who saw productivity increase through the use of electrified machinery, and business, hotel, and movie house owners as well as street-car operators, who needed electricity to attract and retain customers.
随着电力成本的下降和供应的增加，客户群最终扩大到了普通大众。当公用事业行业在年代开始时，高昂的电力成本限制了其使用范围，只有工厂主们看到了通过使用电气化机械提高生产力的好处，以及商业、酒店、电影院和有轨电车运营商们需要电力来吸引和保留顾客。
These customers of electricity viewed the commodity largely as a producer good-a raw material necessary for the production of a good or service.
这些电力的客户主要将电力视为生产要素，一种生产商品或服务所必需的原材料。
As prices declined and as utility companies promoted power usage for homes, electricity became a consumer good, being used by a larger segment of the population to offer convenience and comfort-giving services.
随着价格下降，以及公用事业公司推广家庭用电，电力成为一种消费品，被更多人群用来提供便利和舒适的服务。
Once electricity made its way to rural America in the 1930s, the customer base had been extended pretty much to all the members of the public. 6 The payments made to professors were defended in an Electrical World editorial ("Those Naughty Professors" 1929,1271 ).
一旦电力在 20 世纪 30 年代传到美国农村地区，客户群基本上扩展到了所有公众成员。对教授的支付在《电气世界》的一篇社论中得到了辩护（《那些淘气的教授》1929,1271）。
7 Electric power had not generally reached rural areas, a fact that helped spur the Rural Electrification Administration's creation as part of President Roosevelt's New Deal programs.
电力尚未普及到农村地区，这一事实促使了农村电气化管理局的成立，作为罗斯福总统新政计划的一部分。

8 After the holding company abuses became well known, some state legislatures gave commissions greater power to require disclosure of operating companies' affiliations with holding companies and to improve regulation of the operating companies' securities (Marlett and Traylor 1935, 177-86).
在控股公司滥用行为广为人知之后，一些州立法机构赋予委员会更大的权力，要求运营公司披露与控股公司的关联，并改善对运营公司证券的监管（Marlett 和 Traylor 1935，177-86）。
9 Of course, utility company managers did not necessarily view the period as "golden" at the time.
当然，公用事业公司的经理们当时并不一定将这个时期视为“黄金时期”。
Managers complained in their trade press of regulatory bodies' relatively slow action to decide cases, especially when it dealt with approval of accounting methods that would benefit utilities, such as the use of "fair value" as the basis for rates instead of initial cost of equipment ("What's Wrong with Regulation?" .
管理人员在他们的行业媒体上抱怨监管机构在决定案件时行动相对缓慢，特别是在涉及批准有利于公用事业的会计方法时，例如以“公允价值”作为费率基础而不是设备的初始成本（《监管有何问题？》）。
While I argue that participants seek to retain control within the utility system, I am cautious about imputing conscious political motives to players who advocate one position or another.
虽然我认为参与者试图在公共事业系统中保持控制，但我对于将倡导某种立场的参与者归因于有意识的政治动机持谨慎态度。
Certainly, no executive or advocate has admitted to me that his or her institution pursues policies to enhance control or diminish other players' power.
当然，没有任何高管或倡导者向我承认他们的机构追求政策以增强控制力或削弱其他参与者的权力。
Nor am I sure what such an admission would mean, since the intentions of historical actors, or rather their first-person accounts of their intentions, offer problematic historical evidence at best.
我也不确定这样的承认意味着什么，因为历史行为者的意图，或者说他们对自己意图的第一人称陈述，充其量只能提供有问题的历史证据。
Nevertheless, the effect of the participants' actions is often to seek greater control. It is the effect, and not the intent, that interests me.
然而，参与者行动的效果往往是为了寻求更大的控制。我感兴趣的是效果，而不是意图。

11 In its 1978 Annual Report, Pacific Gas and Electric observed that "a significant portion of US electric energy needs by the year 2020 could come from solar cells," while "[w]ind energy may some day become an economical and practical supplemental source of electricity (Pacific Gas and Electric Company 1978, 9-10)."
在其 1978 年的年度报告中，太平洋煤气电力公司观察到，“到 2020 年，美国电力需求的相当大一部分可能来自太阳能电池”，而“风能有望成为一种经济实用的补充电力来源（太平洋煤气电力公司 1978 年，9-10 页）”。
Windpower research also won support from the Califormia Energy Commission, and investors in wind projects earned state income tax credits (Serchuk, 1995, 193-206 and 241-44).
风能研究还得到了加利福尼亚能源委员会的支持，风电项目的投资者获得了州收入税抵免（Serchuk, 1995, 193-206 and 241-44）。

13 IRP principles were implemented by the federal government after passage of the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act, Public law 96-501, 1980. State regulatory bodies began adopting IRP soon thereafter, with Nevada being the first to institute it formally after legislative action in 1983 (Wellinghoff and Mitchell 1985, 19).
通过《太平洋西北电力规划和节约法案》（公共法案 96-501，1980 年）通过后，联邦政府实施了 13 项 IRP 原则。州监管机构随后开始采纳 IRP，内华达州在 1983 年立法行动后成为第一个正式实施 IRP 的州（Wellinghoff 和 Mitchell 1985，19 页）。
14 Only in California did utilities in the 1980s have that disincentive removed. The Electric Revenue Adjustment Mechanism (ERAM), instituted in 1982, immunized utilities from the incentive to sell more power as a way to earn more profits.
只有在 20 世纪 80 年代的加利福尼亚州，公用事业公司才取消了这种不利因素。1982 年实施的电力收入调整机制（ERAM）使公用事业公司免受通过销售更多电力来获得更多利润的激励。
Likewise, it took away the penalties incurred when they pursued energy-efficiency programs.
同样，它取消了他们在推行能源效率计划时所产生的罚款。

15 As an example, Ralph Cavanagh, a lawyer for the Natural Resources Defense Council and a primary actor in establishing the collaborative process in California, frequently joined with Pacific Gas and Electric Company officials to speak about the virtue of the utility's new DSM policies.
作为一个例子，自然资源保护委员会的律师拉尔夫·卡瓦纳（Ralph Cavanagh）是加利福尼亚州合作进程的主要参与者之一，他经常与太平洋煤气电力公司的官员一起谈论该公司新的需求侧管理政策的优点。
Moreover, he accepted a position as a member of the Steering Committee, along with long-time energy-efficiency advocates Amory Lovins and Art Rosenfeld, that helped manage a PG&E research and development project (Hirsh and Pruitt 1993).
此外，他还接受了一个职位，成为了一个由长期倡导能源效率的阿莫里·洛文斯和阿特·罗森菲尔德组成的指导委员会成员，帮助管理一项太平洋煤气电力公司的研发项目（Hirsh 和 Pruitt 1993）。

I am grateful for the assistance of my colleague, Adam H. Serchuk, who helped develop some of the themes and approaches used in this part of the paper.
我感谢我的同事 Adam H. Serchuk 的帮助，他在本文的这一部分中帮助开发了一些主题和方法。
We have explored these themes in greater detail in "Momentum Shifts in the American Electric Utility System: Catastrophic Change or No Change at All?" Technology and Culture, vol. 37 (1996), 280-311, April 1996.
我们在《美国电力公用事业系统中的动能转变：灾难性变革还是毫无变化？》一文中更详细地探讨了这些主题。《技术与文化》杂志，第 37 卷（1996 年），280-311 页，1996 年 4 月。
Of course, some people rightly argue that to achieve lower costs, the non-utility generators have transferred a good part of the risk in financing plants to utility stockholders and ratepayers.
当然，一些人正确地认为，为了降低成本，非公用发电厂商已将一大部分融资风险转嫁给公用事业股东和用户。
18 The end of Communism in Eastern-bloc countries appears to have inspired some advocates of deregulation and free market approaches.
东欧国家共产主义的终结似乎激发了一些主张放松管制和自由市场方法的支持者。
However, at least one supporter of fundamental regulatory principles, Barbara James, chief counsel to the Electric Division of the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, observed that "what the failures of Eastern European Communism have to do with the provision of electric service by a productive tension between private investors and government is unclear.
然而，至少有一位支持基本监管原则的支持者，威斯康星州公共服务委员会电力部首席法律顾问芭芭拉·詹姆斯观察到，“东欧共产主义的失败与私人投资者和政府之间提供电力服务的紧张关系有何关联尚不清楚。”
Monopoly regulation is unlike any doctrinaire governmental theory, except possibly the Founders' federalist checks and balances (James 1995, 71 note 3)."
垄断监管与任何教条式的政府理论都不同，可能只有创始人的联邦制制衡（James 1995，71 注 3）。

Ironically, as some nations move away from state-ownership of electric utilities, they often look to some form of regulation to discipline free market forces and ensure social welfare.
具有讽刺意味的是，一些国家在摆脱对电力公用事业的国有化时，往往会寻求某种形式的监管来约束自由市场力量并确保社会福利。
And in the United Kingdom, which has privatized its electricity services industry, public disaffection is stimulating efforts to increase regulatory oversight (Pope 1995, A10).
在英国，电力服务行业已经私有化，公众的不满正在促使加强监管监督的努力（Pope 1995，A10）。
20

Free markets, argue some people, do a poor job in dealing with environmental externalities and equity issues.
有些人认为，自由市场在处理环境外部性和公平问题上表现不佳。
They also fail to accommodate for situations in which individuals and institutions have perverse incentives to act "irrationally," sometimes because they hold inadequate information.
他们也未能适应个人和机构在某些情况下出于“非理性”行为的扭曲激励，有时是因为他们持有不充分的信息。
Because of these market deficiencies and market "failures," regulation needs to exist in some form to provide a way for the industry to comprehend public-interest responsibilities. This argument is outlined in Hamrin, Marcus, Weinberg, and Morse 1994.
由于这些市场缺陷和市场“失败”，需要以某种形式存在监管，以便行业能够理解公共利益责任。这一观点在 Hamrin、Marcus、Weinberg 和 Morse 1994 年的文章中有所阐述。
See Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine.
参见祖博夫的《智能机器时代》。
2 This idea may not be entirely new.
这个想法可能并非完全新颖。
Nathan Bedford Forest, a now notorious calvary General for the confederacy had a military strategy along these lines, which he expressed as "Be the firstust with the mostust." Be the firstust with the mostust: the most information you can get processed the quickest.
内森·贝德福德·福雷斯特，一个如今臭名昭著的南方联邦骑兵将军，有一种军事策略，他表达为“尽快地以最多的信息为先”。尽快地以最多的信息为先：尽可能快地处理最多的信息。
Along these lines see the discussion by Awerbuch, et al (in this volume) regarding the importance of learning around the new technology.
请参阅 Awerbuch 等人（本卷中）关于学习新技术重要性的讨论。
4 The Myers-Briggs is a widely used personality/behavior assessment. Gifts Differing, Isabel BriggsMyers, Consulting Psychologist Press, 1989.
迈尔斯-布里格斯是一种广泛使用的人格/行为评估工具。《天赋的差异》，伊莎贝尔·布里格斯·迈尔斯，咨询心理学出版社，1989 年。
See work performed by Venture Associates for the Electric Power Research Institute.
请查看 Venture Associates 为电力研究所所做的工作。
- The author wishes to acknowledge assistance from Dan Cleverdon, Princeton Economic Research, Inc., in preparing early drafts of this paper.
  作者希望感谢普林斯顿经济研究公司的丹·克莱弗顿在准备本文初稿时提供的帮助。
Strandable benefits describes the many public goods and private benefits afforded through regulation of utilities. The typical listing includes energy efficiency programs, research and development programs, renewable energy development, low-income programs, and others.
可搁浅的利益描述了通过对公用事业进行监管所提供的许多公共物品和私人利益。典型的列举包括能源效率计划、研发计划、可再生能源开发、低收入计划等。
Environmental activism is, at least partially, a function of the wealth of a society. The richer a society the more of its resources it will be willing to spend on environmental conservation and improvement.
环境行动主义至少部分取决于一个社会的财富。社会越富裕，它愿意在环境保护和改善上投入的资源就越多。
This implies that one of the first steps to improving the environmental quality of a society is to increase its wealth, i.e., it is hard for a people in extreme poverty to place a high value on an idea as abstract as environmental quality when their concerns are more immediate and concrete.
这意味着改善社会环境质量的首要步骤之一是增加财富，即当一个极度贫困的人民面临更为紧迫和具体的问题时，很难对环境质量这样抽象的概念给予高度重视。
This appears to be a paradox, as economic development is often associated with environmental degradation. The paradox may in fact be false for at least two reasons.
这似乎是一个悖论，因为经济发展往往与环境退化相关。这个悖论可能实际上是错误的，至少有两个原因。
First, continued poverty may well be even more degrading to the environment than development, as the desertification of sub-Sahara Africa shows (the substitution of fossil fuels for firewood for cooking would have a substantial environmental benefit in sub-Saharan Africa).
首先，持续的贫困可能对环境的破坏甚至比发展更加严重，正如撒哈拉以南非洲的沙漠化所显示的那样（在撒哈拉以南非洲，用化石燃料替代柴火烹饪将对环境产生实质性的益处）。
Second, the environmental degradation due to development may be temporary and substantially reversible, as it has been in the OECD countries. But we should always remember that at a basic level, pervasive degradation inhibits growth, and extinct is forever.
其次，由于发展而导致的环境退化可能是暂时的，并且在经合组织国家已经得到了很大程度的逆转。但我们应该始终记住，在基本层面上，普遍的退化会抑制增长，而灭绝是永远的。
This view, as reported in Energy Daily, Sep. 14, 1995, was summed up as "Current U.S. global climate change policy makes no sense." The participants of a symposium of global climate change on Sep.
14, 1995, expressed their belief that the current U.S. global climate change policy is nonsensical.
13, 1995, sponsored by the American Council for Capital Formation's Center for Policy Research indicated that it was foolish and counterproductive to push for near-term goals of emission reductions. Instead the focus should be on long-term atmospheric concentrations of . The three major speakers at the symposium were: W. David Montgomery, VP at Charles River Associates; Alan Manne, professor emeritus at Stanford University and Jae Edmonds, technical leader of economic programs at Pacific Northwest Laboratories.
1995 年由美国资本形成委员会的政策研究中心主办的研讨会指出，推动近期减排目标是愚蠢且适得其反的。相反，应该关注长期大气浓度。研讨会的三位主要发言人是：查尔斯河协会副总裁 W. David Montgomery；斯坦福大学荣誉教授 Alan Manne；太平洋西北实验室经济项目技术负责人 Jae Edmonds。
The three agreed that new technology is the key to keeping costs down in the long-run when dealing with climate change. Edmonds was quoted as: "The accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies can so substantially reduce the costs of meeting an atmospheric concentration that costs are insignificant until late in the [21st] century." He added: "A clear implication of this result is that measures which accelerate global technology cost reduction, development and deployment have substantial value in achieving [the world's global climate change goals]."
三人一致认为，新技术是在应对气候变化时长期降低成本的关键。埃德蒙兹被引用说：“加速推广先进能源技术可以大幅降低达到大气浓度的成本，直到[21 世纪]末期成本都是微不足道的。”他补充道：“这一结果的明显含义是，加速全球技术成本的降低、发展和部署的措施在实现[世界的全球气候变化目标]方面具有重要价值。”
Moore's Law, named for Gordon Moore, Chief Executive Officer of Intel, holds that computer processing power doubles every 18 months and cost reduces by half.
摩尔定律是以英特尔首席执行官戈登·摩尔的名字命名的，它认为计算机处理能力每 18 个月翻倍，成本减少一半。
Despite the slowing growth rate, global population will not stabilize until at least 2050 , at about the 10 12 billion level, twice the current population.
尽管增长速度放缓，全球人口直到 2050 年至少不会稳定，预计将达到约 1012 亿人，是目前人口的两倍。
A regional breakdown of current growth rates: Sub-Saharan Africa-2.94%; East & North Africa-2.53%; Asia-1.60%; Latin America & Caribbean-1.69%; North America-1.11%; Europe-0.32%; Former Soviet Union (FSU)-0.56%; and Oceania-1.51%.
当前增长率的区域分布：撒哈拉以南非洲-2.94％；东北非洲-2.53％；亚洲-1.60％；拉丁美洲和加勒比地区-1.69％；北美洲-1.11％；欧洲-0.32％；前苏联（FSU）-0.56％；大洋洲-1.51％。
Banking deregulation should be a cautionary tale of how not to deregulate, as we continue to still pay for the S&L debacle.
银行业的解除管制应该是一个警示故事，告诉我们如何不应该解除管制，因为我们仍然在为储蓄贷款危机买单。

7 Dematerialization appears to follow a curve, with initial trends toward using more material, often in economies of scale, peaking at some point followed by dematerialization, as the attributes that led to concentration either become their own enemy, e.g., environmental impacts of concentrated use, or are not valued by the market.
7. 去物质化似乎遵循一条曲线，最初趋势是使用更多的材料，通常是在规模经济中，达到某个顶点后出现去物质化，因为导致集中的特征要么成为自己的敌人，例如集中使用的环境影响，要么市场不重视这些特征。
Many industries in the U.S. are clearly on the dematerialization portion of the curve.
美国许多行业明显处于物质减少曲线的阶段。
On this point we generally agree with professor Aggarwal [in this volume].
在这一点上，我们一般同意阿加瓦尔教授（在本卷中）的观点。
2 This long established cost control focus may explain why other industries, including utilities are currently looking to manufacturing to adapt and enhance their own cost control and capital budgeting initiatives.
这种长期以来的成本控制重点可能解释了为什么其他行业，包括公用事业，目前正在寻求制造业来适应和增强自己的成本控制和资本预算倡议。

It was in the area of accounting depreciation that sophisticated techniques were employed but this is another story.
在会计折旧领域使用了复杂的技术，但这是另外一个故事。
The concepts of passive, capital-intensive, and infinitely durable technologies are explained in a later section.
被动、资本密集型和无限耐用技术的概念将在后面的部分进行解释。

5 The "busbar" ($/kWh) cost includes direct fuel and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of a plant; it continues to be the predominant cost measure for planning, presumably as a proxy for the true costs of generating power.
5“母线”（每千瓦时美元）成本包括电厂的直接燃料、运营和维护（O&M）成本；它继续作为规划的主要成本衡量标准，可能作为发电成本的替代指标。
As discussed subsequently, these are often passive rather than active and capital- rather than expenseintensive; they tend to be infinitely durable, but exhibit rapid technological obsolescence.
如后续讨论所述，这些通常是被动的而不是主动的，资本密集而不是费用密集；它们往往具有无限的耐用性，但技术过时迅速。
Additional discussion can be found in Awerbuch, et al (1996).
附加讨论可在 Awerbuch 等人（1996）中找到。

8 Examples: IBM missed early growth in PC markets which was captured by Apple-an upstart; Keuffel and Esser (slide rule manufacturer) virtually disappeared with the diffusion of pocket calculators-a radical innovation; RCA (vacuum tubes, large radio/TV) lost market share to Sony, which capitalized on transistors and miniaturization, an architectural innovation which RCA deemed to be "inferior technology" (Henderson and Clark, 1990: 10).
8 个例子：IBM 错过了早期 PC 市场的增长机会，而这一机会被新兴企业苹果抓住了；Keuffel and Esser（滑尺制造商）在袖珍计算器的普及中几乎消失了，这是一种激进的创新；RCA（真空管、大型收音机/电视）失去了市场份额，被索尼利用了晶体管和微型化的优势，这是一种被 RCA 认为是“次等技术”的架构创新（Henderson and Clark, 1990: 10）。
This legacy even follows the digital watch, an architectural innovation that Swiss and American watchmakers also judged to be inferior.
这一传统甚至延续到了数字手表，瑞士和美国的制表商也认为这是一种次等的建筑创新。
These attributes, which lend themselves to the characteristics of the economic engineering mentality, were previously discussed in (Awerbuch, et. al., 1996).
这些属性适用于经济工程思维的特点，之前在（Awerbuch 等人，1996 年）中已经讨论过。
Stigler (1949) provides some insight into the marginal cost function for a technology with no variable costs: it is a vertical line at its capacity limit, i.e.: short-run marginal costs are essentially zero until the capacity is reached, at which point they are infinite.
Stigler（1949）对于没有可变成本的技术的边际成本函数提供了一些见解：它是一条在其容量限制处的垂直线，即：短期边际成本在达到容量之前基本为零，而在达到容量后则为无穷大。

Passive, capital-intensive assets do not consume operating costs as do active, expense-intensive ones. The single largest cost for passive assets is depreciation, which is the rate of change in the asset's economic value. Accounting practice cannot estimate this cost reliably.
被动、资本密集型的资产不像积极、费用密集型的资产那样消耗运营成本。被动资产的最大成本是折旧，即资产经济价值的变化率。会计实践无法可靠地估计这一成本。
This means that to estimate expected production costs with passive assets requires the accountant to anticipate future technological progress for a particular asset group—a tall order indeed.
这意味着要估计被动资产的预期生产成本，会计师需要预测特定资产组的未来技术进步-这确实是一项艰巨的任务。

Economists view depreciation as a measure of changing economic value, while accountants view depreciation as an allocation of historic (sunk) cost in an "arbitrary but systematic" manner.
经济学家将折旧视为经济价值变化的一种衡量方式，而会计师则将折旧视为以“任意但系统化”的方式分配历史（沉没）成本。
Sunk cost bears no relevance to actual economic costs of production although the two can be made equivalent through the correct design of accounting depreciation. For discussion see Awerbuch (1992 a, 1992b).
沉没成本与实际生产经济成本无关，尽管通过正确设计会计折旧可以使两者等效。有关讨论，请参见 Awerbuch（1992 年 a，1992 年 b）。
12 When passive, capital-intensive equipment replace traditional technologies manufacturing processes are usually altered as are throughput, quality and other factors which radically alter the cost picture.
当被动的、资本密集型的设备取代传统技术时，制造过程通常会发生改变，从而改变了产量、质量和其他因素，从根本上改变了成本情况。
When passive technology is replaced with newer vintages the decision is even more complex since judgment must be made regarding capabilities, and regarding the manner in which the new technology affects other aspect of the firms process.
当被动技术被更新的版本取代时，决策变得更加复杂，因为必须对能力进行评估，并评估新技术对公司流程的其他方面产生的影响。
For example see the Simmonds-Machine case in Giffi, et al (1990: 170-171).
例如，请参考吉菲等人（1990 年：170-171）中的辛蒙兹-机器案例。
Product quality and throughput are by now both widely recognized as reducing cost; see, for example, Giffi, et al. (1990).
产品质量和产能已被广泛认可为降低成本的因素；例如，参见 Giffi 等人（1990）。

For example, risk and flexibility attributes are a major factor in producing correct estimates of relative generating costs for renewable- as compared to fossil-based generation.
例如，风险和灵活性属性是正确估计可再生能源发电相对于化石燃料发电成本的重要因素。

16 This has considerable significance for conventional generation where firms will likely have incentives to use various hedging strategies to control fuel price risk. This has not been an issue for most utilities in the past because of the fuel-adjustment clause.
这对传统发电行业具有重要意义，企业很可能会有动机采用各种对冲策略来控制燃料价格风险。这在过去对大多数公用事业公司来说并不是一个问题，因为有燃料调整条款。

17 The abandonment of PV installations at Lugo and Carissa Plains (California) illustrate this flexibility. These sites were sold by ARCO to an investor group (See: Strategies Unlimited, Solar Flare, 90-1, February ). The electric output had been sold to Pacific gas and Electric at per , although the investor group estimated it needed per to make a profit (Corwin, "Solar Energy Eclipse," Los Angeles Times, Volume 110, No. 235, Sec. A, July 26, 1991). The group, therefore, began to sell the panels, expecting to sell the entire supply over a four-year period (Strategies Unlimited 1990: 7). About of the panels were sold in the first year (Corwin, 1991), the remainder were offered in various direct mail catalogues for about Watt to Watt. The EVA encapsulation of the modules had darkened, which seemed to degrade output by a maximum of (Corwin, 1991), although retailers claim a smaller, degradation (Alternative Energy Sourcebook, The Real Goods Company, Uriah, CA, 1992).
17 卢戈和卡里萨平原（加利福尼亚州）的光伏安装的放弃说明了这种灵活性。这些地点被 ARCO 出售给一家投资者集团（参见：Strategies Unlimited, Solar Flare, 90-1, February）。电力输出已经以每瓦特出售给太平洋煤气和电力公司，尽管投资者集团估计他们需要每瓦特才能盈利（Corwin, "Solar Energy Eclipse," Los Angeles Times, Volume 110, No. 235, Sec. A, July 26, 1991）。因此，该集团开始销售光伏板，预计在四年内销售完整供应（Strategies Unlimited 1990: 7）。第一年销售了约的光伏板（Corwin, 1991），其余的以每瓦特到每瓦特的价格在各种直邮目录中提供。模块的 EVA 封装变暗，似乎最多降低了的输出（Corwin, 1991），尽管零售商声称降低较小，约（Alternative Energy Sourcebook, The Real Goods Company, Uriah, CA, 1992）。
Hoff (in this volume) values some of these flexibility options.
霍夫（在本卷中）对其中一些灵活性选项进行了评估。

19 The approach seems to rely less on traditional capital budgeting and more on benchmarking. Carayannis (1996) views benchmarking of best practices as critical in fostering an organizational learning culture that would be the foundation upon which to build a VU.
这种方法似乎更少依赖传统的资本预算，而更多依赖基准管理。Carayannis（1996）认为，基准管理最佳实践对于培养组织学习文化至关重要，这将成为建立虚拟企业的基础。

Awerbuch (1993a) discusses the valuation of environmental externalities using the social rate of time preference.
Awerbuch（1993a）讨论了使用社会时间偏好率对环境外部性进行估值。
Logistic (S-shaped) curves are frequently used to describe the emergence and maturation of technologies over their life-cycle. Fisher-Pry is probably the best-known of these models. For additional discussion see Hatten and Piccoli [1993].
逻辑（S 形）曲线经常用于描述技术在其生命周期内的出现和成熟。Fisher-Pry 可能是其中最著名的模型。有关更多讨论，请参阅 Hatten 和 Piccoli [1993]。

22 The notion of an established process or product being "challenged"' as depicted by the S-shaped curves of Figure 2, is taken from Foster (1985).
22 "挑战"这个词的概念，如图 2 中的 S 形曲线所示，取自 Foster（1985）的观点。
This is the "strategic present value" issue raised by Bierman and Smidt (1988): it is a reason why firms adopt negative net-present-value projects. Another benefit is the information acquired from the project, which cannot be obtained through other means.
这是 Bierman 和 Smidt（1988）提出的“战略现值”问题：这是企业采用负净现值项目的原因之一。另一个好处是从项目中获得的信息，无法通过其他方式获得。

24 There are exceptions of course: Harrigan (1994) discusses various "Endgame" strategies for exploiting mature businesses and processes.
当然也有例外情况：Harrigan（1994）讨论了利用成熟企业和流程的各种“终局”策略。
Additional discussion on the accounting basis for these assumptions is given in Awerbuch, et al., 1996]
关于这些假设的会计基础的进一步讨论可参见 Awerbuch 等人的 1996 年论文。

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY: Accounting, Technology & Competitive Aspects of the Emerging Industry 虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy Series监管经济学和政策系列主题

Michael A. Crew, Editor迈克尔·A·克鲁，编辑

Previously published books in the series:系列中先前出版的书籍：

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY: Accounting, Technology & Competitive Aspects of the Emerging Industry虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data国会图书馆编目出版数据

CONTENTS 目录

A Volume of Papers from the Symposium on The Virtual Utility Saratoga Spring, N.Y., March 1996 纽约萨拉托加泉虚拟公用事业研讨会论文集，1996 年 3 月。

CONTRIBUTORS 贡献者

PREFACE 前言

Part I 第一部分

Introduction 介绍

EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION AND编辑的介绍和

READER'S GUIDE TO THIS BOOK读者指南

INTRODUCTION 介绍

The Context: What Is the Virtual Utility?虚拟公用事业是什么？

Background-Towards a Virtual Utility背景-朝着虚拟公共事业的方向

Evaluating the VU's Benefits评估 VU 的好处

Limitations of Existing Accounting现有会计的局限性

Purpose of This Book本书的目的

A READER'S GUIDE TO THE PAPERS IN THIS VOLUME 本卷论文的读者指南

1. Consensus, Confrontation and Control in the American Electric Utility System美国电力公用事业系统中的共识、对抗和控制

2. The Virtual Utility: Strategic and Managerial Perspectives虚拟公用事业：战略和管理视角

3. Being Virtual: Beyond Utility Restructuring and How We Get There3. 虚拟化：超越实用性重组及其实现方式

Part III. The Virtual Utility: Planning And Strategic Investment Analysis 第三部分。虚拟公用事业：规划和战略投资分析

Part IV. Risk Management, Options and Contracting for a Virtual Utility'第四部分。风险管理、选择和虚拟公用事业的合同。

6. Integrating Financial and Physical Contracting in Electric Power Markets在电力市场中整合金融和物理合同

7. Capacity Prices in a Competitive Power Market竞争性电力市场中的容量价格

8. Managing Risk Using Renewable Energy Technologies使用可再生能源技术管理风险

Part V. Industrial Organization, Technological Change and Strategic Response to Deregulation 第五部分：工业组织、技术变革和对放松管制的战略应对

9. Monopoly and Antitrust Policies in Network-based Markets such as Electricity9. 垄断和反垄断政策在基于网络的市场中的应用，如电力市场。

10. Services in an Unbundled and Open Electric Services Marketplace在一个非捆绑和开放的电力服务市场中的服务

11. Technological Change and Industry Structure: Insights from Telecommunications技术变革和行业结构：来自电信业的见解

Part VI. Network Architecture and Standardization"第六部分。网络架构和标准化。

12. Interconnected System Operations and Expansion Planning in a Changing Industry: Coordination vs. Competition在不断变化的行业中，互联系统运营和扩展规划：协调与竞争

13. Rules of the Road and Electric Traffic Controllers: Making a Virtual Utility Feasible道路规则和电动交通控制器：使虚拟公用事业成为可能

Part VII. From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility第七部分。从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业。

14. The Future Structure of the North American Utility Industry北美公用事业行业的未来结构

Part VII: Perspectives 第七部分：观点

REFERENCES 参考文献

Part II 第二部分

Historic and Strategic Perspective: From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility历史和战略视角：从垄断服务到虚拟公共事业

1

CONSENSUS, CONFRONTATION AND共识、对抗和

CONTROL IN THE AMERICAN ELECTRIC美国电力控制

AN INTERPRETATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR一个解释性框架

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY CONFERENCE虚拟公用事业会议

Abstract 摘要

INTRODUCTION 介绍

THE UTILITY CONSENSUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT EMERGED效用共识及其出现的环境

BROADENING SUPPORT FOR THE CONSENSUS AND UTILITY MANAGER CONTROL扩大对共识和实用性管理的支持

THE GOLDEN YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR II二战后的黄金时代

STRESSES OF 1970S 1970 年代的压力

ATTEMPTS TO ASSIMILATE INNOVATIONS CONSERVATIVELY: WINDPOWER AND DSM试图保守地吸收创新：风能和需求侧管理

RECENT CHALLENGES TO SYSTEM CONTROL最近对系统控制的挑战

CONCLUSION 结论

REFERENCES 参考文献

2

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY 虚拟公用事业

STRATEGIC AND MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVES:战略和管理视角

WELCOMING ADDRESS 欢迎辞

ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE-CYCLES AND CHALLENGES组织的生命周期和挑战

MECHANICAL VERSUS COGNITIVE PARADIGMS机械与认知范式

Mechanical View 机械视图

Cognitive View 认知视角

INFORMATION HIERARCHIES 信息层次结构

ORGANIZATIONAL ATTRIBUTES IN THE MECHANICAL AND COGNITIVE PARADIGMS机械和认知范式中的组织属性

LEVERS FOR PROCESS INNOVATION过程创新的杠杆

Impact 影响

Explanation 解释

SKILL SHIFTS 技能转变

Quantitative 定量的

Qualitative 定性的

THE “CHANGE" PROCESS “变革”过程

Characteristics of the Transition State:过渡态的特征

NEW COMPETENCIES 新的能力

REFERENCES 参考文献

3

BEING VIRTUAL: BEYOND 虚拟存在：超越

RESTRUCTURING AND HOW 重组和如何重组

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY:
Accounting, Technology &
Competitive Aspects of the
Emerging Industry
虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy Series
监管经济学和政策系列主题

Michael A. Crew, Editor
迈克尔·A·克鲁，编辑

Previously published books in the series:
系列中先前出版的书籍：

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY:
Accounting, Technology & Competitive Aspects of the Emerging Industry
虚拟公用事业：新兴行业的会计、技术和竞争方面

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
国会图书馆编目出版数据

A Volume of Papers from the Symposium on The Virtual Utility Saratoga Spring, N.Y., March 1996
纽约萨拉托加泉虚拟公用事业研讨会论文集，1996 年 3 月。

EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION AND
编辑的介绍和

READER'S GUIDE TO THIS BOOK
读者指南

The Context: What Is the Virtual Utility?
虚拟公用事业是什么？

Background-Towards a Virtual Utility
背景-朝着虚拟公共事业的方向

Evaluating the VU's Benefits
评估 VU 的好处

Limitations of Existing Accounting
现有会计的局限性

Purpose of This Book
本书的目的

A READER'S GUIDE TO THE PAPERS IN THIS VOLUME
本卷论文的读者指南

1. Consensus, Confrontation and Control in the American Electric Utility System
美国电力公用事业系统中的共识、对抗和控制

2. The Virtual Utility: Strategic and Managerial Perspectives
虚拟公用事业：战略和管理视角

3. Being Virtual: Beyond Utility Restructuring and How We Get There
3. 虚拟化：超越实用性重组及其实现方式

Part III. The Virtual Utility: Planning And Strategic Investment Analysis
第三部分。虚拟公用事业：规划和战略投资分析

Part IV. Risk Management, Options and Contracting for a Virtual Utility'
第四部分。风险管理、选择和虚拟公用事业的合同。

6. Integrating Financial and Physical Contracting in Electric Power Markets
在电力市场中整合金融和物理合同

7. Capacity Prices in a Competitive Power Market
竞争性电力市场中的容量价格

8. Managing Risk Using Renewable Energy Technologies
使用可再生能源技术管理风险

Part V. Industrial Organization, Technological Change and Strategic Response to Deregulation
第五部分：工业组织、技术变革和对放松管制的战略应对

9. Monopoly and Antitrust Policies in Network-based Markets such as Electricity
9. 垄断和反垄断政策在基于网络的市场中的应用，如电力市场。

10. Services in an Unbundled and Open Electric Services Marketplace
在一个非捆绑和开放的电力服务市场中的服务

11. Technological Change and Industry Structure: Insights from Telecommunications
技术变革和行业结构：来自电信业的见解

Part VI. Network Architecture and Standardization"
第六部分。网络架构和标准化。

12. Interconnected System Operations and Expansion Planning in a Changing Industry: Coordination vs. Competition
在不断变化的行业中，互联系统运营和扩展规划：协调与竞争

13. Rules of the Road and Electric Traffic Controllers: Making a Virtual Utility Feasible
道路规则和电动交通控制器：使虚拟公用事业成为可能

Part VII. From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility
第七部分。从垄断服务到虚拟公用事业。

14. The Future Structure of the North American Utility Industry
北美公用事业行业的未来结构

Part VII: Perspectives
第七部分：观点

Historic and Strategic Perspective: From Monopoly Service to Virtual Utility
历史和战略视角：从垄断服务到虚拟公共事业

CONSENSUS, CONFRONTATION AND
共识、对抗和

CONTROL IN THE AMERICAN ELECTRIC
美国电力控制

AN INTERPRETATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR
一个解释性框架

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY CONFERENCE
虚拟公用事业会议

THE UTILITY CONSENSUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT EMERGED
效用共识及其出现的环境

BROADENING SUPPORT FOR THE CONSENSUS AND UTILITY MANAGER CONTROL
扩大对共识和实用性管理的支持

THE GOLDEN YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR II
二战后的黄金时代

ATTEMPTS TO ASSIMILATE INNOVATIONS CONSERVATIVELY: WINDPOWER AND DSM
试图保守地吸收创新：风能和需求侧管理

RECENT CHALLENGES TO SYSTEM CONTROL
最近对系统控制的挑战

STRATEGIC AND MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVES:
战略和管理视角

ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE-CYCLES AND CHALLENGES
组织的生命周期和挑战

MECHANICAL VERSUS COGNITIVE PARADIGMS
机械与认知范式

ORGANIZATIONAL ATTRIBUTES IN THE MECHANICAL AND COGNITIVE PARADIGMS
机械和认知范式中的组织属性

LEVERS FOR PROCESS INNOVATION
过程创新的杠杆

Characteristics of the Transition State:
过渡态的特征

HOW TO GET THERE
如何到达那里

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY: SOME
虚拟公用事业：一些

INTRODUCTORY THOUGHTS ON
关于引言的初步思考

ACCOUNTING, LEARNING AND THE
会计，学习和

VALUATION OF RADICAL INNOVATION
激进创新的估值

THE ECONOMIC ENGINEERING MENTALITY
经济工程思维

THE VIRTUAL UTILITY CONCEPT: RADICAL INNOVATION AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING
虚拟公用事业概念：激进创新与组织学习

Capital Budgeting and Innovation
资本预算和创新

THE LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL CAPITAL BUDGETING
传统资本预算的局限性

THE LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL ACCOUNTING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING
传统会计和资本预算的局限性

The Attributes of New Process Technologies in Manufacturing
制造业中新工艺技术的特点

Technologles Provide a Bundle of Benefit-Cost Aftributes
技术提供了一系列的成本效益属性

Most Attributes Have No Direct Accounting Measure
大多数属性没有直接的会计度量

ASSET VALUATION UNDER RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
快速技术变革下的资产估值

THE NEED FOR A NEW ACCOUNTING VOCABULARY
需要一个新的会计词汇

Activity-Based Costing in Manufacturing
制造业中的活动成本核算

The Behavior of Utility O&M Costs
公用事业运维成本的行为