这是用户在 2024-8-15 17:47 为 https://tjz7zargzro.sg.larksuite.com/file/L5OzbmTTyoHj3Lx2hsSl2tMdgJc 保存的双语快照页面，由 沉浸式翻译 提供双语支持。了解如何保存？

Lark雲端文件

搜尋
首頁
雲端硬碟
我的空間和共用空間移至雲端硬碟了
知識庫
置頂知識庫
我的文件資料庫
儲存管理
資源回收筒
IB_ReportIB_Reports

GS-Morning Rundown...8 14 2024 - Michael Nocerino_Watermark.pdf

外部
最近修改: 昨天 21:09
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  1. GS Morning Rundown...8/14/2024FICC and Equities | 14 August 2024 | 12:13PM UTC“All references to “we/us/our” refer to the views and observations of the desk unless specified otherwise”MORNING MACROUS Futures muted (10yy/Crude/Bitcoin stables) as all eyes turn to US CPI this morning (GIR: in July core CPI +0.16% vs. +0.2% cons MoM; +3.20% vs. +3.2% cons YoY). GOOGL lower (-1% pre mkt) on reports the DoJ mull breakup push after antitrust win with less severe options include forcing GOOGL to share more data with competitors/measures to prevent unfair advantage in AI products (BBG).Overnight, UK CPI printed cooler adding to the dovish case for UK rates while China’s largest steel firm (China Baowu Steel) said the steel industry is facing a crisis more sever than ’08 and ’15 downturns (BBG). New Zealand Central Bank cut by 25bps (not expected). Geopolitically, Iran is linking its response to Israeli on its role/outcome to a ceasefire deal in Gaza (FT/RTRS).Focus today: Mortgage Applications (7am), CPI (8:30am), no Fed speakers.*CPI: GS ECON CPI PREVIEW…We expect a 0.16% increase in July core CPI (vs. 0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.20% (vs. 3.2% consensus). We highlight four key component-level trends we expect to see in this month’s report:-We expect used car prices to decline 1.5%, reflecting continued catch-down to auction prices.-We expect airfares to decline 2.5%, reflecting a headwind from seasonal distortions.-We expect another moderate shelter inflation reading on net, reflecting another soft OER reading due to payback for the January spike with a 6-month lag but a slight rebound in rent.-We expect car insurance prices to rise, albeit not as quickly as earlier in the year—we forecast a 0.7% increase in the car insurance component compared to 1.2% on average so far in 2024.Reaction Function (trading desk view):.07% -.12%: SPX +1%.13% -.18%: SPX +.75%.19% - .24%: SPX +/-.40%.25% - .29%: SPX -1.25%.30% - .34%: SPX -1.75%>.35%: SPX -2.5%
  2. Estimate Distribution for July Core CPI MoMSource: Bloomberg as of 08/13/2024; Past performance isn’t indicative of future results – h/t Lee Coppersmith…Dom Wilson view into CPI: The CPI clearly still matters for the Fed profile (we saw markets respond positively to a better PPI release), but the threshold for big shifts is higher than it’s been for a while, since the market probably correctly judges that the extent of timing and cuts runs more through the jobs and growth side now. Our CPI forecast (16bp on core CPI translating to 14bp on core PCE) should be modestly reassuring, though it looks like we’ve pre-traded some of that. Given that the key fear is growth risk now, we arguably have more sensitivity to the retail and claims numbers later in the week and our belowconsensus retail forecast may be the bigger obstacle for the current rally.The market set-up is harder after the rapid relief from the extremes, but our central case forecast is more optimistic than what we see baked into markets broadly and the recession tail is probably still over-priced relative to the 25% probability our US econ team assigns. So that argues for further relief over time. But it may take the market a while to be reassured about that and in the meantime, we will probably sustain more volatility around the leu growth data, especially the next couple of jobs reports. The election and geopolitical risks may also put a higher floor under vol than we saw earlier in the year.*FACTOR FOCUS-DESK ACTIVITY…Overall executed flow on our desk finished with a +304bps buy skew yday vs 30day avg of +32bps. LOs finished +$900m net buyers, driven almost entirely by Tech and macro expressions. HFs finished -$600m net sellers, driven almost entirely by long sales across discretionary. HF short ratios ran light, hovering around 30%, vs ~50% avg.-GEOPOLITICS…Ceasefire stall-> Hamas won’t take part in ceasefire negotiations on Thurs, signaling that a breakthrough will stay elusive – NYT-GOOG…Antitrust-> US Considers a Rare Antitrust Move: Breaking Up Google. Antitrust enforcers soliciting input from outside companies. Judge ruled Alphabet unit monopolized online search, ads – BBG-INFLATION…UK Inflation – U.K. Services Inflation Eases, Keeping Door Open for More Rate Cuts. Consumer prices were 2.2% higher than a year earlier in July, rising from 2% in June - WSJ
  3. -FUND FLOW STRATEGY (Rubner)…”I think there is more equity downside than upside priced in for the CPI and we pre-traded a low print following the PPI in the marketplace. However, each macro data print from here will be used as clearing event for volatility. My flow of funds framework flips to the buyside next week and systematic supply pressure will ease. At the end of the week, CTA supply will completely fade and there is a more fair fight. We have also entered the second best two month period for corporate repurchases , which is tracking $5 Billion per day until September 6th. As volatility resets back lower, we should see additional demand from the vol control community. Buyers live higher and investors will re-gross above $5400.”*EARNINGS UPDATE…Earnings are largely behind us with over 90% of S&P mkt cap having now reported. 55% of S&P companies have beat EPS by >1std dev (vs ~48% historic average) driven by margin beats, while 10% of companies have missed by >1std dev (vs 13% historic average).Source: GIR, as of 8/13/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. H/t Jenny Ma
  4. Source: GIR, as of 8/13/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. H/t Jenny Ma…Companies beating have o/p S&P by 244bps on T+1 (vs 101bps of historic o/p), while companies missing have u/p S&P by 77bps on T+1 (vs 211bps of historic u/p).Source: GIR, as of 8/13/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. H/t Jenny MaQUICK HITS FROM GIR
  5. • Restaurants: broad-based traffic slowdown• Pharma: CMS’ drug pricing announcement implications• Focus on Utilities capex growth• Buy DE: positive on captive finance business• Upgrade NCNO to BuyMICRO THOUGHTS FROM THE DESKTMT (BARTLETT/ZIMMERMAN) – Bartlett Marquee Page1. GOOGL: DOJ mulls asking for Google breakup after Landmark Antirust win ––Bloomberg. Stock -1% in pre. A bid to break up Alphabet Inc.’s Google is one of the options being considered by the Justice Department after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations. The move would be Washington’s first push to dismantle a company for illegal monopolization since unsuccessful efforts to break up Microsoft Corp. two decades ago. Less severe options include forcing Google to share more data with competitors and measures to prevent it from gaining an unfair advantage in AI products, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. Link2. Hon Hai: iPhone maker Hon Hai sees sales rising as AI boosts profits- expects to ship NVDA powered servers in Q4. Apple Inc.’s main manufacturing partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. said it expects revenue to grow in the current quarter and for the rest of year, after reporting a profit rise boosted by demand for servers powering AI applications. The iPhone producer, also known as Foxconn, said on Wednesday that net income in the June quarter was NT$35 billion ($1.1 billion), largely in line with analyst expectations. Hon Hai’s revenue for the period, released earlier, surpassed estimates and came in at NT$1.55 trillion, up 19%. This was helped in large part by its growing business of supplying data center operators with servers containing Nvidia Corp.’s AI accelerators. Hon Hai will start shipping a small batch of GB200-powered servers in 4Q, and the volume will grow significantly in 20253. PTON: Google Fitbit, Peloton announce multi-year content distribution partnership. Peloton (PTON) and Google (GOOGL) Fitbit announced Tuesday a multi-year, multi-country partnership to offer a wide portfolio of Peloton classes to Fitbit Premium users, starting in early September. Press Release4. NCNO: GS Research upgrades to Buy on Improving retention & enhanced crosssell opportunity clear path for growth reacceleration. We upgrade shares of NCNO to Buy from Neutral, with a $42, 12-month price target ($34 prior). Our Call: nCino is likely to overcome the various business headwinds it
  6. has faced into peaking interest rates in relatively short order, which we think materializes through 1) the lapping of peak mortgage customer churn, 2) accelerating contribution from more nascent, non-core products, 3) growth stability in the core commercial lending business, 4) benefits from nCino's renewed partnership with Salesforce, and 5) continued margin expansion towards the company's 'Rule of 50' target. While nCino has underperformed our two other covered companies in the bank technology space by 48pts YTD, we think the above factors, combined with nCino's innovation track record (including AI), partner ecosystem, and deep-rooted relationships with large FIs, have the potential to close the performance gap with peers in what we have consistently viewed as a strong underlying environment for bank IT spend. Details within. Link5. Tencent (first take): Tecent reports mostly in-line results with consensus, with slight Gaming beat. Overall numbers mostly inline vs GS estimates:a. Revenue 161.12b yuan vs GSe 160.55bb. Net income 47.63b yuan vs GSe 48.56bc. Adjusted net income 57.31b yuan vs GSe 57.45bd. Two bright spots: gaming revenue 48.5b yuan slightly higher vs GSe of 48.1b (+8% YoY), and online ads 29.87b yuan (+19% YoY) also beat GSe 29.13b yuan (+16% YoY)e. Co repurchased c. 51mn shares on HKEX for about HKD14.8bnHC (GALLO/CHAN) – Gallo's Marquee Page1. IRA drug price negotiations: Thoughts ahead of anticipated announcements, which could potentially begin this week: Media reports indicate that the White House is poised to make an announcement -potentially as early as Thursday, August 15th, prior to market open, and ahead of the September 1st statutory deadline - highlighting the anticipated benefits to consumers (i.e., cost savings potential) based on the outcome of Medicare's Drug Pricing Negotiations enabled by provisions within the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Potentially simultaneous disclosures by CMS of specifics, such as negotiated Maximum Fair Price (MFP) levels that will go into effect starting in 2026 for the 10 drugs selected, will help address a key uncertainty for investors, helping inform how pricing dynamics across major product categories will shape growth outlooks, for the pharmaceutical industry. See below for link to full note.2. CAH – F4Q Consistent with Consensus + Guide Raise: CAH reported F4Q results, with segment level rev + EBIT generally consistent with consensus, and EPS ahead at $1.84 (vs. $1.73 cons) and likely better-than-feared post results from peers. The company raised Pharma profit growth to +1% to +3% (vs. at least 1% prior) and raised EPS guidance to $7.55 to $7.70 (vs. at least $7.50 prior). Conf call at 8:30am ET.
      • /11
評論
​
沒有權限存取
暫無權限查看檔案資訊