A recent Wall Street Journal/NORC poll indicated a significant gap between people’s wishes and expectations regarding owning a home, having a family, and looking forward to a comfortable retirement. Economics reporter Rachel Wolfe joins host J.R. Whalen to discuss why the pessimism is more pronounced today compared to previous generations.
《华尔街日报》/NORC 最近的一项民意调查显示,人们对于拥有住房、组建家庭以及期待舒适的退休生活的愿望和期望之间存在巨大差距。经济记者雷切尔·沃尔夫 (Rachel Wolfe) 与主持人 JR Whalen 一起讨论为什么与前几代人相比,今天的悲观情绪更加明显。
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J.R. Whalen: Here's Your Money Briefing for Tuesday, September 3rd. I'm J.R. Whalen for the Wall Street Journal.
Living the American dream is a wish for many people, but in a recent poll, a majority of adults said they don't feel they'll be able to achieve it, even with hard work.
JR Whalen:这是 9 月 3 日星期二的财务简报。我是《华尔街日报》的 JR Whalen。实现美国梦是许多人的愿望,但在最近的一项民意调查中,大多数成年人表示,他们认为即使努力工作也无法实现这一目标。
Rachel Wolfe: They can't plan a wedding, they can't plan for kids because they need to have the house in order to do all of those things, that they can't hit this first rung on this ladder, and so then they can't keep moving. So they feel pretty stuck. They feel like they had the dream that the country promised them something and then took it away.
雷切尔·沃尔夫(Rachel Wolfe):他们无法计划婚礼,他们无法为孩子计划,因为他们需要拥有房子才能做所有这些事情,他们无法达到梯子上的第一级,所以然后他们无法继续移动。所以他们感觉很困难。他们觉得自己做了一个梦,国家向他们承诺了一些东西,然后又把它拿走了。
J.R. Whalen: We'll talk to Wall Street Journal reporter Rachel Wolfe after the break.
Living the American dream and being able to achieve financial milestones has been a goal for generations, but few people currently feel they can reach it according to a recent poll. Wall Street Journal economics reporter Rachel Wolfe joins me. Rachel, what do people generally feel the American dream entails?
JR Whalen:我们将在休息后与《华尔街日报》记者 Rachel Wolfe 交谈。实现美国梦并能够实现财务里程碑一直是几代人的目标,但根据最近的一项民意调查,目前很少有人认为自己能够实现这一目标。 《华尔街日报》经济记者雷切尔·沃尔夫 (Rachel Wolfe) 加入我的行列。雷切尔,人们普遍认为美国梦意味着什么?
Rachel Wolfe: So Americans overwhelmingly still desire all the traditional trappings that we have always associated with the American dream, think owning a home, having a family, and looking forward to a comfortable retirement. But now the difference is that very few believe they can easily achieve it.
雷切尔·沃尔夫:所以绝大多数美国人仍然渴望拥有我们一直与美国梦联系在一起的所有传统装饰,认为拥有一个房子,拥有一个家庭,并期待一个舒适的退休生活。但现在不同的是,很少有人相信他们可以轻松实现这一目标。
J.R. Whalen: What were they asked in the recent poll and what was the response?
JR Whalen:在最近的民意调查中,他们问了哪些问题,得到了什么回应?
Rachel Wolfe: A July poll that was a collaboration between the Wall Street Journal and NORC showed a super stark gap between people's wishes and their expectations. So while the vast majority of respondents said that they wanted to own a home, for example, only 10% said homeownership is easy or somewhat easy to achieve. Financial security in a comfortable retirement were similarly labeled as essential or important by 96% and 95% of people, but then rated as achievable by only 9% and 8%.
Rachel Wolfe:《华尔街日报》和 NORC 合作进行的 7 月份民意调查显示,人们的愿望和期望之间存在巨大差距。例如,虽然绝大多数受访者表示他们想拥有一套房子,但只有 10% 的人表示拥有住房很容易或有些容易实现。 96% 和 95% 的人同样将舒适退休生活中的财务保障视为必要或重要,但只有 9% 和 8% 的人认为可以实现。
J.R. Whalen: Struggles to make ends meet and build a nest egg aren't new. Why are these poll results significant?
JR Whalen:为维持收支平衡和建立储蓄而奋斗并不新鲜。为什么这些民意调查结果很重要?
Rachel Wolfe: It's never that the American dream has been easy. The point is that it was possible. And if you worked hard, probable that you would ultimately get these things like a house, a family, comfortable retirement that it was within reach if you followed the rules. 12 years ago, when researchers at Public Religion Research Institute asked this question of whether the American dream still holds true, over 50% of people said, "Yes, it's still possible." Now, that's only about a third of Americans. And so what we're seeing is that this faith that it's out there for people is plummeting, and it's been this steady decline over the past decade. So it's not just that it has gotten harder, which it has, it's that people no longer believe it's possible for them.
雷切尔·沃尔夫:美国梦从来都不是一帆风顺的。关键是这是可能的。如果你努力工作,你很可能最终会得到这些东西,比如房子、家庭、舒适的退休生活,只要你遵守规则,这些都是触手可及的。 12年前,当公共宗教研究所的研究人员问及美国梦是否仍然成立时,超过50%的人说:“是的,这仍然是可能的。”现在,这仅占美国人的三分之一。所以我们看到的是,人们对它的信心正在直线下降,而且在过去的十年里一直在稳步下降。因此,这不仅是事情变得更加困难了(事实确实如此),而且人们不再相信这对他们来说是可能的。
J.R. Whalen: What factors contribute to consumer's feelings about not being able to achieve financial milestones?
JR Whalen:哪些因素导致消费者对无法实现财务里程碑的感觉?
Rachel Wolfe: So by many measures, economists told me people are actually right to feel that their shot at success has diminished. I spoke to an economist at Washington, DC think tank, the Bipartisan Policy Center, who pointed to the continued decline of private sector pensions, which has led to their near disappearance and the surge in the cost of homeownership as two of the biggest economic changes over the past decade. We've also seen economic mobility decrease, which is the odds that you're going to do better than your parents or find a way out of poverty. And we've seen inequality increase.
雷切尔·沃尔夫:经济学家告诉我,从很多方面来看,人们认为自己成功的机会已经减少,这种感觉实际上是正确的。我与华盛顿特区智库两党政策中心的一位经济学家交谈,他指出私营部门养老金的持续下降,导致养老金几乎消失,以及住房拥有成本飙升,这是最大的两个经济变化过去十年。我们还看到经济流动性下降,这意味着你比父母做得更好或找到摆脱贫困的方法的可能性。我们已经看到不平等现象加剧。
J.R. Whalen: Yeah, we often hear about parents saying they want their kids to be better off than they were. How is that playing out today?
JR Whalen:是的,我们经常听到父母说他们希望他们的孩子比他们过得更好。今天的情况如何?
Rachel Wolfe: If you were born in 1940, you were almost guaranteed to do better than your parents. Around 90% of children born in 1940 were ultimately better off than them. That's only true for about half of people today. So the chances that you're actually going to out earn your parents, that you're going to have a better life than they had have gotten significantly smaller.
Rachel Wolfe:如果你出生于 1940 年,你几乎肯定会比你的父母做得更好。大约 90% 1940 年出生的孩子最终都比他们过得更好。今天只有大约一半的人是这样的。因此,你真正挣得比父母多、过上比他们更好的生活的机会已经变得非常小了。
J.R. Whalen: So based on what economists told you, this is not a case of people being overly pessimistic about their finances?
JR Whalen:那么根据经济学家告诉你的情况,这并不是人们对自己的财务状况过于悲观的情况?
Rachel Wolfe: The economists that I spoke to were mostly in agreement that people are right to feel that they're shot at the American dream in how it's traditionally defined have gone down. There are some mitigating factors such as the fact that over the past couple of years, wages for the lowest earners have actually outpaced other groups. We've seen a little bit of a turnaround, but it has not been nearly enough to compensate for recent decades.
雷切尔·沃尔夫(Rachel Wolfe):我采访过的经济学家大多都同意,人们有正确的感觉,因为传统定义的美国梦已经衰落,他们感到自己受到了打击。有一些缓解因素,例如在过去几年中,最低收入者的工资实际上超过了其他群体。我们已经看到了一些转变,但这还不足以弥补近几十年来的影响。
J.R. Whalen: How does the way people feel about their finances changed their day-to-day living?
JR Whalen:人们对财务的看法如何改变他们的日常生活?
Rachel Wolfe: A lot of people told me about not being able to achieve the financial milestones they would've expected to, and that kind of messing up the rest of their plans. So I spoke to a couple in Louisville who told me that they were surprised when $250,000 wasn't enough for them to buy a starter house, and they feel like they can't get engaged, they can't plan a wedding, they can't plan for kids because they need to have the house in order to do all of those things, that they can't hit this first rung on this ladder, and so then they can't keep moving. So they feel pretty stuck.
I also spoke to a family in Mount Vernon who achieved the American dream of homeownership and felt like they were doing it, that they had both risen out of poverty. They both grew with a ton of siblings, working class, and in more recent years, they've been barely scraping bias expenses for everything have skyrocketed. They feel like they had the dream that the country promised them something and then took it away.
雷切尔·沃尔夫:很多人告诉我,他们无法实现他们预期的财务里程碑,这会打乱他们的其余计划。所以我和路易斯维尔的一对夫妇交谈过,他们告诉我,当 25 万美元不足以购买一套入门房时,他们感到很惊讶,他们觉得自己无法订婚,无法计划婚礼,他们可以不要为孩子们做计划,因为他们需要有房子才能做所有这些事情,他们无法到达梯子上的第一级,所以他们就无法继续前进。所以他们感觉很困难。我还采访了弗农山的一个家庭,他们实现了拥有住房的美国梦,并感觉自己正在实现这一梦想,他们都摆脱了贫困。他们都是和大量的兄弟姐妹、工人阶级一起长大的,近年来,他们几乎没有为一切都在飙升的偏见支出而苦苦挣扎。他们觉得自己做了一个梦,国家向他们承诺了一些东西,然后又把它拿走了。
J.R. Whalen: That's WSJ reporter Rachel Wolfe. And that's it for Your Money Briefing. This episode was produced by Ariana Aspuru with supervising producer Melony Roy. I'm J.R. Whalen for the Wall Street Journal. Thanks for listening.
J.R. Whalen is host and producer of The Wall Street Journal’s Your Money Briefing and Minute Briefing podcasts.
He joined WSJ Podcasts in 2017 after nearly a decade of producing news and business programming for the Journal’s video department. Before joining the Journal, J.R. held positions at CBS News, CBS Sports, HBO, the Associated Press and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, where he was responsible for assigning dollar values to the questions. He began his career at WVIP-AM/FM in Mount Kisco, N.Y., as news and sports director. He is a graduate of Syracuse University, and owns about 100 pairs of cufflinks.