A Return to Profitability
重返盈利

Executive Summary  执行摘要

• The scale of the Bitcoin network remains remarkably impressive, now recording a market cap of $2.1T, and a realized cap of $955B. Together, they highlight not only the substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin, but also its maturation toward becoming a multi-trillion-dollar asset.
  比特币网络的规模依然令人印象深刻，目前其市值达到 2.1 万亿美元，实现市值为 9550 亿美元。两者共同表明，不仅有大量资本流入比特币，而且其成熟度也正在向数万亿美元资产迈进。
• Following a recovery to $107k, a super-majority of Bitcoin investors are now holding unrealized profits. In total, the unrealized profit held across investors sits at a staggering $1.2T.
  在价格回升至 107,000 美元之后，绝大多数比特币投资者现在都持有未实现的盈利。截至目前，投资者持有的未实现盈利总额高达惊人的 1.2 万亿美元。
• HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic across a plethora of spending metrics, with realized profit taking declining, liveliness continuing to trend downwards, and Long-Term Holder supply surging to a new ATH.
  HODLing 似乎成为各种支出指标中的主导市场机制，实现利润开始下降，活跃度持续走低，而长期持有者供应量则飙升至新的历史高点。
• Stablecoin purchasing power remains largely neutral, suggesting that the market views the current price level as being at a relative equilibrium. Additionally, demand from institutions for regulated Bitcoin exposure remains robust, with sustained and sizeable inflows.
  稳定币购买力仍基本保持中性，表明市场认为当前价格水平处于相对均衡状态。此外，机构对受监管的比特币敞口的需求依然强劲，资金持续大量流入。

Market Recap  市场回顾

As tensions escalated between Israel and Iran last week, markets responded with a sharp sell-off, with Bitcoin prices dropping from $106K to $99K. However, the market found strong support near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $98.3K, a key level that often distinguishes between local bullish and bearish conditions.
上周以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，市场反应剧烈抛售，比特币价格从 10.6 万美元跌至 9.9 万美元。然而，市场在短期持有者成本基础 9.83 万美元附近找到了强有力的支撑，这是一个通常区分局部看涨和看跌情况的关键水平。

In a market driven by geopolitical headlines, the risk of further downside is still in the air, however, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between the two nations has helped stabilize sentiment, and fuel a recovery to $107k.
在一个受地缘政治新闻驱动的市场中，进一步下跌的风险仍然存在，然而，美国斡旋的两国停火协议帮助稳定了市场情绪，并推动了价格回升至 10.7 万美元。

The market’s ability to hold the Short-Term Holder cost basis during such a volatile and uncertain period is a constructive signal, suggesting that the bulls are still in control, and that underlying momentum may remain skewed to the upside.
在如此动荡和不确定的时期，市场能够守住短期持有者的成本基础是一个建设性的信号，表明多头仍然掌控着局面，并且潜在的动能可能仍然偏向上行。

Total Profitability  总盈利能力

With Bitcoin trading just shy of its all-time high, we can apply two valuation frameworks to assess the assets current scale. The first is the traditional Market Capitalization, which values each coin in the circulating supply at the current market price. The second uses on-chain pricestamping of each coin to compute the Realized Cap, which values each coin at the last transacted price, and provides a more accurate measurement of true network liquidity.
由于比特币的交易价格略低于历史高点，我们可以应用两种估值框架来评估该资产目前的规模。第一种是传统的市值，它以当前的市场价格对流通中的每枚代币进行估值。第二种是使用链上价格戳记来计算已实现市值，它以最后一次交易的价格对每枚代币进行估值，并提供对真实网络流动性的更准确的衡量。

• Market Cap: $2.13T  市值：2.13 万亿美元
• Realized Cap: $958B  已实现市值：9580 亿美元

Both measures have experienced substantial growth this cycle, with the market cap rising from a low of $304B to $2.13T, whilst the realized cap has surged from $400B to $955B. Together, they highlight not only the substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin, but also its maturation toward becoming a multi-trillion-dollar asset.
这两个指标在本周期内都经历了显著增长，市值从低点 3040 亿美元上升至 2.13 万亿美元，而实现市值则从 4000 亿美元飙升至 9550 亿美元。它们不仅表明了大量资金流入比特币，也显示了比特币逐渐成熟为一个数万亿美元的资产。

If we consider market capitalization as the spot valuation of the circulating supply, and the realized capitalization as the value ‘saved’ or ‘stored’ in BTC, then the difference between the two represents the unrealized profit (or loss) held by investors across the network.
如果我们把市值看作是流通供应量的即时估值，把已实现市值看作是在比特币中“保存”或“存储”的价值，那么两者之间的差额就代表了整个网络中投资者持有的未实现利润（或亏损）。

At present, the total unrealized profit stands at an estimated $1.2 trillion, underscoring the substantial value appreciation experienced by Bitcoin investors, but also the incentive for potential sell-side pressure that may emerge if sentiment shifts.
目前，未实现利润总额估计为 1.2 万亿美元，突显了比特币投资者所经历的巨大价值增值，但也突显了如果市场情绪发生变化，可能出现的潜在抛售压力的动机。

The MVRV metric provides us with an alternative, dimensionless view on investor profitability, and is constructed as the ratio of Market Cap / Realized Cap. This provides crucial information on the magnitude of paper gains, or losses held by the average market participant.
MVRV 指标为我们提供了一个关于投资者盈利能力的替代性、无量纲的视角，它由市值/已实现市值的比率构成。这提供了关于普通市场参与者持有的账面收益或损失的程度的关键信息。

At the moment, the average paper gain held per investor stands at +125%, suggesting Bitcoin investors are sitting on significant profits. This remains substantially lower than the +180% profitability seen in March-2024 when the price hit the then $73k ATH, and also when the market initially broke $100k in Dec-2024.
目前，每位投资者持有的平均纸面收益为+125%，表明比特币投资者目前持有大量利润。这一水平仍明显低于 2024 年 3 月时的+180%的盈利能力，当时价格达到了当时的 73,000 美元历史高点，也低于 2024 年 12 月市场首次突破 100,000 美元时的盈利水平。

With dollar-denominated unrealized profits trading near ATHs and the MVRV Ratio lower than the peak by comparison, this highlights a divergence between the two profitability measures. This suggests that the realized cap (capital inflows) has grown at a relatively faster rate compared to the market cap (price appreciation) over recent months.
以美元计价的未实现收益接近历史高点（ATH），而 MVRV 比率相比之下低于峰值，这表明两种盈利指标之间出现了分化。这说明，与市值（价格增长）相比，实际市值（资本流入）在最近几个月内增长得相对更快。

To increase the granularity of our analysis, we construct an oscillator designed to assess the profitability status across various coin age cohorts. This equal-weighted composite measures the number of age-based cohorts that, on average, are holding their coins in profit. Conceptually, this functions as a type of momentum indicator, tracking whether a growing share of the investor base is moving into profit or loss.
为了增加分析的粒度，我们构建了一个振荡器，用于评估不同币龄群体的盈利状况。这个等权重的综合指标衡量的是，平均而言，有多少币龄群体正在盈利持有他们的币。从概念上讲，这类似于一种动量指标，用于跟踪投资者群体中进入盈利或亏损的比例是否在增长。

We can observe that the recent price contraction did not significantly impact investor profitability, unlike the sharper drawdowns seen during the accumulation ranges of May–Sep 2024 and Jan–Apr 2025. In addition, the composite has recently crossed above its +1 standard deviation threshold, signaling a positive profitability across holders of all coin ages, and a likely positive backdrop for sentiment.
我们可以观察到，最近的价格下跌并未显著影响投资者的盈利能力，这与 2024 年 5 月至 9 月以及 2025 年 1 月至 4 月积累阶段出现的更剧烈的回撤不同。此外，该综合指数最近已突破其+1 标准差阈值，表明所有币龄持有者的盈利能力均为正面，且情绪可能也将迎来积极的背景。

Profits Continue to Dry Up
盈利持续枯竭

Now that we have established that the market is holding substantial unrealized profits, the next step is to assess how these investors are responding, and whether they are taking profit off the table.
既然我们已经确定市场持有大量的未实现利润，那么下一步就是评估这些投资者的反应，以及他们是否正在获利了结。

To evaluate this, we can observe the magnitude of profit or loss locked in by transactions occurring on-chain each day. Realized profits have remained relatively muted over recent weeks, especially when considering that prices are only a stones throw off the ATH.
为了评估这一点，我们可以观察每天链上交易锁定的利润或损失的幅度。近几周，已实现利润一直相对平淡，特别是考虑到价格仅略低于历史最高点。

Around $872M worth of is currently being locked in profit per day, which is notably less that the $2.8B and $3.2B in realized profit seen during the $73K, and $107K all-time high formations, respectively.
目前每天约有价值 8.72 亿美元的利润被锁定，这明显低于在 7.3 万美元和 10.7 万美元的历史最高点形成期间分别出现的 28 亿美元和 32 亿美元的已实现利润。

The decline in sell-side pressure is particularly evident when examining the total supply held by the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort, which recently reached a new all-time high of 14.7M BTC. This underscores that HODLing remains the dominant market behavior amongst investors, with accumulation and maturation flows significantly outweighing distribution pressures.
抛售压力的下降在考察长期持有者（LTH）群体持有的总供应量时尤为明显，该群体最近达到了 1470 万枚比特币的历史新高。这表明，持有仍然是投资者主导的市场行为，积累和成熟的流动明显超过了分配压力。

The 155-day time threshold required for coins to enter the LTH cohort is currently approaching the second ATH formation in late January. This indicates that investors who purchased during the breakout above $100K have largely held onto their coins, indicative of constructive sentiment under the surface.
币龄达到 155 天才能进入 LTH 群体，目前正接近 1 月下旬的第二个历史最高点。这表明，在突破 10 万美元时购买的投资者，基本上都持有住了他们的币，表明表面之下的建设性情绪。

The Liveliness metric also captures this change in market character, and is constructed by assessing the all-time balance between coinday destruction (spending) and coinday creation (HODLing).
活跃度指标也捕捉到了市场特征的这种变化，它是通过评估币天销毁（支出）和币天创建（持有）之间的历史平衡来构建的。

• Uptrends suggests spending is the dominant investor preference.
  Uptrends 表明支出是投资者的主要偏好。
• Downtrends suggest HODLing is the dominant market mechanic.
  Downtrends 表明 HODLing 是主要的市场机制。

During the two previous all-time high formations, the Liveliness metric saw meaningful upticks, highlighting a market dominated by spending activity and profit taking. Interestingly, this typical characteristic was absent during the most recent ATH break, and Liveliness has continued trending downward.
在前两次的历史高点形成期间，活跃度指标出现了有意义的上升，突出了一个以支出活动和获利了结为主导的市场。有趣的是，这种典型的特征在最近的 ATH 突破中并没有出现，而且活跃度持续下降。

This further reinforces that HODLing remains the dominant behavior among investors, and that a range expansion in price may be necessary to incentivize renewed spending activity.
这进一步加强了 HODLing 仍然是投资者中的主要行为，并且价格范围的扩大可能是刺激新的支出活动所必需的。

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio is a powerful tool used to gauge both investor activity in the markets, as well as whether the market is approaching degree of equilibrium. It can be interpreted within the following framework:
卖方风险比率是一种强大的工具，用于衡量市场中的投资者活动，以及市场是否接近平衡状态。它可以在以下框架内进行解释：

• High values indicate that investors are realizing significant profits or losses relative to their cost basis. This typically follows a high-volatility price move and suggests that the market may need time to re-establish equilibrium.
  高数值表明投资者相对于其成本基础实现了重大盈利或亏损。这通常出现在高波动性价格变动之后，表明市场可能需要时间重新建立平衡。
• Low values imply that coins are being spent near their original cost basis, signaling that profit and loss-taking has diminished. This reflects a more balanced market and often coincides with periods of reduced volatility.
  低值意味着硬币正在接近其原始成本基础进行交易，这表明盈利和亏损了结的行为减少。这反映了更加平衡的市场，通常与波动性降低的时期相吻合。

Following an uptick in profit-taking at the all-time high, the Short-Term Holder cohort has markedly reduced their distribution pressures. This again suggests that the current price range is not compelling enough for investors to continue selling, implying that the market may need to move higher (or lower) to unlock additional supply.
在创下历史新高后，随着获利回吐的增加，短期持有者群体已显著减轻了他们的抛售压力。这再次表明，当前的价格区间对投资者来说，并不足以让他们继续抛售，这意味着市场可能需要向上（或向下）移动，才能释放更多的供应。

In confluence, a similar structure is emerging across the profit and loss-taking behavior of Long-Term Holders. Following a brief uptick in sell-side pressure into the all-time high, these mature investors have also significantly slowed their spending.
在汇合点上，长期持有者的盈亏行为也呈现出类似的结构。在短暂的上涨后，抛售压力进入历史高位，这些成熟的投资者也大大放缓了他们的支出。

This behavior aligns with broader market signals, including the overall decline in realized profit and loss volumes, the continued surge in Long-Term Holder supply, and the sustained downtrend in the Liveliness metric. All of these indicators reinforce a view that HODLing is the dominant behavior for investors at the present time.
这种行为与更广泛的市场信号相符，包括已实现盈亏总量的整体下降、长期持有者供应量的持续激增以及活跃度指标的持续下降趋势。所有这些指标都强化了一种观点，即目前对投资者来说，持有是主导行为。

In Search of Demand  寻找需求

Stablecoins have become a critical component of the digital asset ecosystem, serving as the primary quote asset for trading across both centralized and decentralized venues. Functionally, they represent readily available capital, or "dry powder", available for digital asset purchases.
稳定币已成为数字资产生态系统中的关键组成部分，作为中心化和去中心化交易场所的主要报价资产。从功能上看，它们代表了随时可用的资本，或称为“弹药”。

To quantify the purchasing power of stablecoins, we can employ the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR), which measures the ratio between the Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins (denominated in BTC). This metric offers a proxy for the relative demand pressure between BTC and USD liquidity:
为了量化稳定币的购买力，我们可以使用稳定币供应比率振荡器（SSR），该指标衡量比特币供应量与稳定币供应量（以 BTC 计）之间的比率。该指标为 BTC 和美元流动性之间的相对需求压力提供了一个代理指标：

• Low SSR signals greater stablecoin-denominated buying power relative to BTC supply.
  低 SSR 表明相对于比特币供应量，以稳定币计价的购买力更强。
• High SSR suggests reduced stablecoin purchasing capacity relative to BTC, potentially reflecting weaker demand.
  较高的稳定币供应比率表明，相对于比特币而言，稳定币的购买力有所下降，可能反映出需求疲软。

Currently, the normalized Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is oscillating near its baseline, another measure suggesting that the market views the current price level as being at a relative equilibrium. This is particularly notable when compared to the previous $100K breakout, during which the SSR was significantly higher. Despite similar price levels, this shift suggests that investor purchasing power has improved markedly, reflecting stronger underlying demand conditions.
目前，标准化的稳定币供应比率（SSR）在其基线附近波动，这是另一种表明市场认为当前价格水平处于相对均衡状态的指标。与之前的 10 万美元突破相比，这一点尤其值得注意，当时稳定币供应比率明显更高。尽管价格水平相似，但这种转变表明投资者的购买力已显著提高，反映出更强劲的潜在需求状况。

Another way we can assess the relative strength of stablecoin purchasing power is through the Exchange Buying Power metric. This metrics records the 30-day change in major stablecoin supplies on exchanges, and subtracts the USD denominated 30-day change in BTC and ETH flows, and can be considered under the following framework.
我们还可以通过“交易所购买力”（Exchange Buying Power）指标来评估稳定币购买力的相对强度。该指标记录了交易所中主要稳定币供应量在 30 天内的变化，并减去以美元计价的比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）资金在 30 天内的变化，可以在此框架下进行分析。

• Positive values and uptrends indicate that a larger or increasing volume of USD-denominated stablecoins is flowing into exchanges relative to BTC and ETH over the past 30 days. This trend suggests greater stablecoin buying power is available on exchanges, which may support increased demand and liquidity for major crypto assets.
  正值和上升趋势表明，过去 30 天内，相对于比特币和以太坊，更多或正在增加的美元计价稳定币流入了交易所。这一趋势表明交易所上的稳定币购买力增强，可能支持主要加密资产的需求和流动性增加。
• Negative values and downtrends reflect a smaller or decreasing flow of stablecoins into exchanges relative to BTC and ETH over the same period. This points to reduced stablecoin-denominated buying power, potentially signaling weaker demand and tighter liquidity conditions across the market.
  负值和下降趋势则反映出，在同一时期，相对于比特币和以太坊，流入交易所的稳定币数量更少或正在减少。这表明以稳定币计价的购买力下降，可能预示着整个市场的需求减弱和流动性收紧。

The market appears to be transitioning away from a strong period of stablecoin inflows into exchanges regime, suggesting a potential rotation of liquidity from stablecoins, into the major assets. If sustained, this could be considered as a tailwind for digital asset valuations, as stablecoin capital is deployed.
市场似乎正在摆脱稳定币大量流入交易所的强势时期，这表明流动性可能从稳定币转向主要资产。如果这种情况持续下去，可以被认为是数字资产估值的有利因素，因为稳定币资本正在被部署。

As Bitcoin’s market capitalization expands, increasingly larger capital inflows are required to meaningfully move its valuation. Therefore, the final demand vector we can assess is that coming from institutions, best reflected through net flows into the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
随着比特币的市值扩大，需要越来越多的资金流入才能显著推动其估值。因此，我们可以评估的最终需求向量是来自机构的资金，这通过流入美国现货比特币 ETF 的净流量最能体现。

Aggregate net inflows have been accelerating in recent weeks, reaching a 7-day average peak of +$298 million. This sustained and sizeable buy-side pressure is a constructive signal, highlighting growing institutional engagement at scale.
近几周，总净流入加速增长，7 天平均峰值达到+2.98 亿美元。这种持续且可观的买方压力是一个建设性的信号，突显出机构参与程度正在大规模增长。

Summary and Conclusion  摘要与结论

After finding firm support at the Short-Term Holder cost basis of $98.3K, a level that often delineates local bull and bear regimes, Bitcoin rebounded to $107K. This move pushed the majority of investors back into profit, with total unrealized gains reaching a staggering $1.2T.
在找到短期持有者成本基准位 98,300 美元的坚实支撑后，比特币反弹至 107,000 美元。这一走势使大多数投资者重新回到盈利状态，未实现收益总额达到惊人的 1,200 亿美元。

Despite this surge in profitability, investor behavior signals a strong preference for HODLing, as the current price range appears insufficient to trigger significant profit-taking. This is reflected in declining realized profits, a continued downtrend in Liveliness, and Long-Term Holder supply climbing to a new all-time high.
尽管盈利大幅上升，但投资者的行为表明他们对持有（HODLing）有很强的偏好，因为当前的价格区间似乎不足以引发大量盈利回吐。这体现在未实现收益的下降、活跃度（Liveliness）的持续下跌，以及长期持有者供应量攀升至历史新高。

As price revisits the previous ATH range, we note that stablecoin purchasing power has improved meaningfully, pointing to a more robust and stable demand backdrop. Meanwhile, institutional appetite remains firm, with consistent and sizeable inflows into regulated Bitcoin products.
随着价格重新回到之前的历史新高区间，我们注意到稳定币的购买力有了显著提升，这表明需求基础更加稳固和稳定。同时，机构投资者的兴趣依然强劲，持续有大量资金流入受监管的比特币产品中。

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for informational, and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
免责声明：本报告不提供任何投资建议。所有数据仅用于信息和教育目的。请不要基于此处提供的信息做出任何投资决定，您需对自身的投资决策负责。

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 
所展示的交易所余额数据来源于 Glassnode 综合的地址标签数据库，这些标签是通过官方发布的交易所信息和专有的聚类算法收集的。 尽管我们努力确保交易所余额数据的最大准确性，但请务必注意，这些数据可能并不总是包含交易所的全部储备，尤其是在交易所不公开其官方地址时。 我们恳请用户在使用这些指标时谨慎行事。 Glassnode 不对任何差异或潜在的不准确之处负责。

Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.
使用交易所数据时，请阅读我们的透明度声明。

• Join our Telegram channel.
  加入我们的电报频道。
• For on-chain metrics, dashboards, and alerts, visit Glassnode Studio.
  如需链上指标、仪表盘和提醒，请访问 Glassnode Studio。