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August 2, 2024, Vol. 42, No. 15
2024 年 8 月 2 日,第 42 卷,第 15 期

PDF
'The new money needed something to buy'
新的货币需要东西来购买

The Fed remains the engine of inflation.
美联储仍然是通货膨胀的引擎。

Buildings stand still 建筑物静止不动

The bear market in commercial real estate will take its sweet time.
商业房地产的熊市将花费很长时间。

As others see us 当别人看到我们

Taking the measure of the 2024 presidential contenders, a British observer asks a fair question.
对 2024 年总统候选人进行评估,一位英国观察员提出了一个公正的问题。

The next uranium? 下一个铀?
Evan Lorenz writes: 埃文·洛伦兹写道:

“The transition to electric vehicles will take longer than we assumed five years ago,” Porsche A.G. admitted on July 22 after reporting a 51% collapse in first-half sales of the $100,000-and-up electric Porsche Taycan sedan. Nor, the front office added, would the luxury-car maker achieve its goal of fielding a product lineup by 2030 in which four out of every five vehicles sold are emission-free. Automakers, ranging from Ford Motor Co. to Aston Martin, find themselves in much the same predicament.
保时捷公司在 7 月 22 日承认,电动汽车的过渡时间将比我们五年前所假设的时间更长,此前该公司报告称,售价超过 10 万美元的电动保时捷 Taycan 轿车上半年销量下降了 51%。前台办公室补充说,这家豪华汽车制造商也不会实现其目标,即到 2030 年推出产品阵容,其中四分之四的车辆销售是零排放的。从福特汽车公司到阿斯顿·马丁,各汽车制造商都面临着类似的困境。


Not that a lengthy stay of execution for the internal-combustion engine is nobody’s idea of good news. Long-suffering bulls on the platinum-group metals are strong candidates to spot the silver lining. In preview, Grant’s is bullish on platinum and on Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the world’s No. 1 platinum miner (AMS on the Johannesburg exchange; ANGPY is the ticker for the American depository receipt. Management says it’s planning a London listing next year.)
内燃机长时间执行暂缓并非没有人认为是好消息。对铂族金属长期持有的牛市是发现其中的一线希望的强有力候选者。在预览中,Grant's 对铂金和世界第一铂金矿商英美铂业有着乐观的看法(在约翰内斯堡交易所上市为 AMS;在美国存托凭证市场的代号为 ANGPY。管理层表示计划明年在伦敦上市。)


The platinum group comprises six elements in the periodic table that share such attributes as a high melting point, mechanical strength and stable electrical properties. The half-dozen—ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium and platinum—are concentrated in geographies that rarely figure in Western vacation itineraries these days. Last year, Russia, South Africa and Zimbabwe accounted for 90% of all platinum mined and 85% of all palladium mined.
铂族元素包括周期表中的六种元素,它们具有高熔点、机械强度和稳定的电学特性等共同属性。这六种元素——钌、铑、钯、锇、铱和铂——主要集中在如今很少出现在西方度假行程中的地理位置。去年,俄罗斯、南非和津巴布韦占所有铂矿和钯矿的 90%和 85%。


It’s the catalytic properties that commend PGMs for use in car exhausts; to catalyze means to accelerate chemical reactions while not destroying the catalyzer. Four of the PGMs can be found in systems that convert harmful substances into wholesome (or, as the case may be, less harmful) ones: unburnt hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides into water, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Thanks to such converters, a new car today produces less than a hundredth of the noxious fumes that a brand-new vehicle in 1960 belched.
它是催化性能使铂族金属在汽车排气中得到应用;催化意味着加速化学反应而不破坏催化剂。四种铂族金属可在将有害物质转化为有益(或者说是较少有害)物质的系统中找到:未燃烧的碳氢化合物、一氧化碳和氮氧化物转化为水、二氧化碳和氮。由于这种转化器,今天的新车产生的有毒废气不到 1960 年全新车辆排放的百分之一。


Investors worry that as EV sales grow, demand for PGMs will fall, while the supply of the metals from recycled catalytic converters will increase—in short, a vision of secular decline in PGM mining along with permanently depressed metals prices.
投资者担心随着电动汽车销量增长,对铂族金属的需求将下降,而来自回收催化转化器的金属供应将增加——简言之,铂族金属采矿的长期衰退前景以及永久性抑制的金属价格。


However, not all EVs are created equal. Yes, battery electric vehicles use no PGMs, but hybrid and plug-in hybrid EVs do. Both types of hybrids mount smaller engines than legacy gasoline-powered cars, but because those engines run cooler and more intermittently than the legacy kind, automakers can’t skimp on the PGMs; similar amounts of platinum, palladium and rhodium are required to achieve the same reduction in emissions in plug-in hybrid emission cars as in old-style gas guzzlers.
然而,并非所有的电动汽车都是一样的。是的,电池电动汽车不使用贵金属,但混合动力和插电混合动力电动汽车会使用。这两种混合动力汽车搭载的发动机比传统汽油车小,但由于这些发动机运行得更凉快和更间歇性,汽车制造商不能在贵金属上节省成本;为了在插电混合动力汽车中达到与老式油耗大户相同的减排效果,需要相似数量的铂、钯和铑。







According to Anglo American Platinum, battery EV sales will chip in 13% of worldwide fleet sales in 2024, up from 12% last year but below expectations at the start of the year for a 14%–16% share. Plug-in hybrids will contribute 6% of 2024 global sales, more than double their share in 2022.
根据英美白金公司的说法,电池电动汽车销量将在 2024 年占全球车队销量的 13%,高于去年的 12%,但低于年初对 14%至 16%份额的预期。插电式混合动力车将在 2024 年全球销量中贡献 6%,是 2022 年份额的两倍多。


Covid-related supply shortages, supply-chain snafus and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine combined initially to send palladium and rhodium prices to the moon. The metals have long since fallen back down to Earth, with palladium trading at $893 per ounce today from a peak of $3,172 in early 2022 and rhodium at $4,650, down from $29,800 in early 2021.
与俄罗斯入侵乌克兰相关的供应短缺、供应链问题以及新冠疫情导致钯和铑价格一度飙升。这些金属早已回落至地面,钯今日每盎司交易价为 893 美元,较 2022 年初的 3172 美元峰值下跌,铑价格为 4650 美元,较 2021 年初的 29800 美元下跌。


Platinum, which is more commonly found in diesel engines than in gasoline-powered ones, is quoted at less than half the peak carved out in 2008. The regulators’ discovery in 2015 that Volkswagen A.G. had been programming its diesel engines to turn on emission-control systems during laboratory tests—and to turn them off on the highway—did nothing to attract and hold environmentally conscious consumers, and the proportion of light-vehicles sales in the European Union powered by diesel engines plunged to 13.6% in 2023 from 53% in 2014.
白金在柴油发动机中比在汽油发动机中更常见,报价低于 2008 年创下的峰值的一半。监管机构在 2015 年发现大众汽车公司一直在对其柴油发动机进行编程,使其在实验室测试期间启动排放控制系统,而在高速公路上关闭这些系统,这并没有吸引和留住环保意识强的消费者,欧盟轻型车销售中由柴油发动机驱动的比例从 2014 年的 53%下降到 2023 年的 13.6%。


While metals prices are low, production costs remain high. The pandemic-cum-lockdown pushed up worldwide mining inflation to 25% a year, Henk de Hoop, the CEO of mineral consulting firm SFA Oxford, tells me. “Do that for three to four years in a row, and your costs double,” he said. “That is what has happened.” Combining low metal prices and inflated costs, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates that one-quarter of all PGM mines operate in the red. “My sense is that over the next 6 to 12 months, given the cash burn that is happening, miners probably will have to start taking production out of the system,” de Hoop says.
尽管金属价格低,生产成本仍然高。矿业咨询公司 SFA 牛津的首席执行官 Henk de Hoop 告诉我,疫情和封锁使全球矿业通胀率达到每年 25%。“连续三到四年这样做,你的成本就会翻倍,”他说。“这就是发生的事情。”结合低金属价格和通胀成本,世界铂金投资委员会(WPIC)估计四分之一的铂族金属矿山处于亏损状态。“我感觉在接下来的 6 到 12 个月内,考虑到正在发生的现金燃烧,矿工们可能不得不开始从系统中撤出生产,”de Hoop 说道。





The supply of recycled metal is likewise a threat to PGM prices, especially to palladium and rhodium, though not an immediate one. Used vehicles are condemned to the scrapyard at around the 15-year mark. During the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath, auto sales collapsed, limiting near-term supply. As new-car prices have inflated over the past four years while financing costs have lurched higher, consumers are driving used cars longer, which is also lowering scrap rates. On top of this, the high price of palladium and rhodium in 2021–22 pulled forward some catalytic-converter recycling, while early scrapping incentives for diesel engines in Europe did the same last decade.
回收金属的供应也对铂族金属价格构成威胁,尤其是对钯和铑的价格,尽管不是立即的威胁。使用的车辆在大约 15 年后被遣送到废车场。在 2008-09 年全球金融危机及其后果期间,汽车销售大幅下降,限制了短期供应。随着过去四年新车价格的上涨和融资成本的飙升,消费者驾驶旧车的时间更长,这也降低了废车率。除此之外,2021-22 年钯和铑的高价促使一些催化转化器回收提前进行,而欧洲上个十年对柴油发动机的早期报废激励措施也起到了同样的作用。


Putting this all together, the WPIC forecasts that palladium will be in a deficit of 1.3 million ounces this year versus demand for 10 million ounces but will flip to being in a surplus in 2026 and remain so thereafter. Platinum, in bullish contrast, will be in a deficit of 476,000 ounces this year versus estimated demand for 7.6 million ounces and will remain in a deficit of over 500,000 ounces per year at least through 2028; the platinum-advocacy group ventures no forecast beyond that year.
将所有这些放在一起,WPIC 预测钯将在今年出现 130 万盎司的赤字,需求量为 1000 万盎司,但到 2026 年将转为盈余,并且此后将保持盈余。相比之下,铂金将在今年出现 47.6 万盎司的赤字,预计需求量为 760 万盎司,并且至少在 2028 年之前每年将保持 50 万盎司以上的赤字;铂金倡导团体不敢对那一年之后的情况做出预测。


With the world consuming more PGMs than it produces, users are drawing down inventory. “For most commodities, six months of demand in above-ground stocks is normally when you begin to see some level of tightness emerge in the market,” Edward Sterck, the director of research at the WPIC, tells me. “That’s when you begin to see the friction with residual holders of those above-ground stocks having incrementally higher value expectations in order to put material into the market. We expect to hit that point in platinum in the second half of this year.”
随着全球对 PGM 的消耗超过生产量,用户正在减少库存。WPIC 研究总监爱德华·斯特克告诉我:“对于大多数大宗商品来说,地面库存中六个月的需求量通常是市场开始出现一定程度紧缩的时候。”“这时你会开始看到地面库存的残余持有者逐渐提高价值预期,以便将材料投放市场。我们预计铂金将在今年下半年达到这一点。”





Longer term, platinum also benefits from the variety of end uses it serves. While catalytic converters accounted for 83% of demand for palladium and 90% of rhodium last year, they made up only 40% of platinum consumption; other industrial applications provided 33%, jewelry 23% and investment demand 4%.
长期来看,铂金也受益于其服务的各种用途。尽管去年催化转化器占钯需求的 83%和铑的 90%,但它们仅占铂消费的 40%;其他工业应用提供 33%,珠宝 23%,投资需求 4%。


Then, too, new uses for platinum may present themselves, including that for green hydrogen. With the caveats that hydrogen is currently growing from a “small base” and that the hydrogen story “has been around for years,” Sterck says that he’s “seen quite a sea change over the past two years. Subsidies available around the world have gone from around $50 billion to over $300 billion today. Those dollars are being deployed. We’re seeing money being spent in Europe on hydrogen auctions. The Inflation Reduction Act is deploying capital in the U.S.” While the WPIC does not include China in its subsidies tally, the People’s Republic is developing hydrogen capacity as well.
然后,白金可能会出现新的用途,包括用于绿色氢。 Sterck 表示,尽管氢目前仍在从“小基数”增长,并且氢的故事“已经存在多年”,但他表示他“在过去两年中看到了相当大的变化。全球范围内可用的补贴已经从大约 500 亿美元增加到今天的 3000 亿美元以上。这些资金正在被投入使用。我们看到欧洲在氢拍卖上花钱。通货膨胀减少法案正在在美国投入资本。”尽管 WPIC 在其补贴统计中不包括中国,但中华人民共和国也在发展氢能力。


. . .

A platinum bull, if so inclined, could buy the physical metal, speculate in platinum futures or invest in PGM miners. The miners boast operating leverage to upside (and downside, too, of course) movements in prices.
一头白金牛,如果愿意的话,可以购买实物金属,投机白金期货或投资铂族金属矿商。矿商吹嘘在价格上涨(当然也包括下跌)时的运营杠杆。


Let’s not forget the downside. “If there is a recession, it is going to be devastating for PGMs,” Marcelo López, a senior portfolio manager at L2 Capital Partners, observes. “If you look at PGM prices, you’re going to see that they crash during a recession. Obviously, they are linked to car sales, so this is expected. But then they recover very strongly after the recession.”
让我们不要忘记缺点。“如果出现经济衰退,对铂族金属来说将是灾难性的,”L2 Capital Partners 的高级投资组合经理马塞洛·洛佩斯观察到。“如果你看铂族金属的价格,你会发现它们在经济衰退期间暴跌。显然,它们与汽车销售有关,所以这是可以预料的。但在经济衰退后,它们会迅速复苏。”


Looking for a miner with a good balance sheet and with platinum-focused production narrows our search to Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (Amplats to its friends), the publicly traded South African PGM producer that is 78.6% owned by mining conglomerate Anglo American plc. Declares López of its place among PGM miners: “Amplats is like the cream of the cream.”
寻找资产负债表良好且以铂为重点生产的矿业公司将我们的搜索范围缩小到英美白金有限公司(Amplats),这家公开交易的南非铂族金属生产商,由矿业巨头英美白金有限公司持有 78.6%的股份。洛佩斯宣称它在铂族金属生产商中的地位:“Amplats 就像是精华中的精华。”


Anglo American was founded in 1917 in Johannesburg by Ernest Oppenheimer with funds raised in both the United States and the U.K. (hence the allusion to dual corporate citizenship of the now-London-based enterprise). From gold and diamonds, Anglo American diversified into copper (in 1926), platinum (1928), coal (1945) and uranium (1953).
安格洛美洲公司成立于 1917 年,由欧内斯特·奥本海默在约翰内斯堡筹集的资金在美国和英国两国成立(因此现在总部位于伦敦的企业被称为双重公司公民身份)。从黄金和钻石开始,安格洛美洲公司逐渐发展到铜(1926 年)、铂金(1928 年)、煤炭(1945 年)和铀(1953 年)。


Following an unsolicited bid from BHP Group Ltd. earlier this year, Anglo American is downsizing to pursue its core operations in copper, iron ore and crop nutrients. The diamond division, De Beers, is on the auction block, while a 78.6% stake in American Anglo Platinum will be spun off to shareholders by the end of 2025. As a part of the demerger, Amplats says it plans to list a London share class in addition to the South African line.
今年早些时候,英美资源集团有限公司收到了必和必拓集团有限公司的一份未经邀请的竞购要约,英美资源集团正在缩减规模,以追求其在铜、铁矿石和作物营养品方面的核心业务。钻石部门德比尔斯正在拍卖中,而英美白金公司的 78.6%股权将在 2025 年底前分拆给股东。作为分拆的一部分,英美白金公司表示计划在伦敦上市,除了南非业务线外。


Amplats is the biggest producer of PGMs, accounting for 19% of platinum and 13% of all palladium mined globally last year. In the 12 months ended June 30, Amplats produced 2.2 million ounces of PGMs, including 1.1 million ounces of platinum and 831,600 ounces of palladium, as well as 72,100 ounces of gold from five mines in South Africa and one in Zimbabwe. While extracting those precious metals, Amplats also turned out 21,021 metric tonnes of nickel, 14,142 tonnes of copper and 977 tonnes of chrome. At year-end 2023, Amplats reported 149.8 million ounces in PGM reserves, which would give the company 66.8 years of production at its current pace.
安普拉斯是 PGM 的最大生产商,去年占全球铂产量的 19%和所有钯的 13%。截至 6 月 30 日的 12 个月内,安普拉斯生产了 220 万盎司的 PGM,包括 110 万盎司的铂和 83.16 万盎司的钯,以及来自南非五个矿山和津巴布韦一个矿山的 7.21 万盎司金。在提取这些贵金属的同时,安普拉斯还生产了 21,021 公吨镍、14,142 吨铜和 977 吨铬。截至 2023 年年底,安普拉斯报告称拥有 1.498 亿盎司的 PGM 储量,这将使公司在当前速度下拥有 66.8 年的生产能力。


In dollar terms, the price of a basket of the PGMs that Amplats mines fell 24% in the first half of 2024, over the corresponding period a year ago, to an average of $1,442 per ounce—and that’s after having slumped by 35% in full-year 2023. To protect margins, the company unveiled a cost-cutting program last year that featured a reduction in headcount by 3,700, or 12% of the 2023 total, and a status review of the 620 contractors that Amplats retains. Through June 30, 75% of the pink slips had been mailed and 60% of the contractor review had been completed, which has resulted in price renegotiations and some terminations.
在美元方面,安普拉斯公司开采的铂族金属篮子价格在 2024 年上半年下跌了 24%,与一年前的相应时期相比,平均为每盎司 1442 美元,而在 2023 年全年下跌了 35%之后。为了保护利润率,该公司去年推出了一项成本削减计划,其中包括裁员 3700 人,占 2023 年总数的 12%,以及对保留的 620 名承包商进行状态审查。截至 6 月 30 日,已寄出了 75%的解雇通知,完成了 60%的承包商审查,导致价格重新谈判和一些终止合同。


Thanks to these actions, Amplats’s all-in sustaining costs dropped to $957 per ounce of PGMs in the first six months of the year, a 19% decline from the year earlier. The net of it was that, despite a 19% year-over-year slump in revenues in the first half, Ebitda slipped by just 8%. On the July 22 earnings call, CEO Craig Miller said that the search is on for “additional cost savings.”
由于这些举措,安普拉特白金公司的全面维持成本在年初六个月下降至每盎司 957 美元,比去年同期下降了 19%。总的来说,尽管上半年收入同比下降了 19%,但 Ebitda 仅下滑了 8%。在 7 月 22 日的收益电话会议上,首席执行官克雷格·米勒表示正在寻找“额外的成本节约”。


And there are signs that the physical market for platinum metals may be tightening. “We’re seeing more frequent spot purchases from our automotive colleagues, as their production requirements surprise them to the upside,” Hilton Ingram, head of marketing at Amplats, said on last week’s call, adding that “inventories, particularly in the West, aren’t as high as what people were anticipating.”
有迹象表明铂族金属的实物市场可能出现收紧。“我们看到汽车同行更频繁地进行现货购买,因为他们的生产需求超出了他们的预期,” Amplats 市场营销负责人希尔顿·英格拉姆在上周的电话会议上表示,并补充说“库存,特别是在西方地区,并不像人们预期的那样高。”


Commenting on Amplats’s future as an independent company, said Miller,
对于作为独立公司的 Amplats 的未来,米勒表示,


we will continue to be a leading PGM producer with a world-class portfolio of mining and processing assets and global marketing capability. Starting with our mining assets, we have the largest PGM mineral resource with an outstanding development potential and diverse PGM metal mix. This has enabled us to remain highly competitive. We have a leading PGM processing capability to leverage our position as a market leader, [and] significant value-chain synergies have been realized over the year.
我们将继续成为一家领先的铂族金属生产商,拥有世界一流的采矿和加工资产以及全球营销能力。从我们的采矿资产开始,我们拥有最大的铂族金属矿产资源,具有出色的开发潜力和多样化的铂族金属组合。这使我们保持了高度竞争力。我们拥有领先的铂族金属加工能力,以利用我们作为市场领导者的地位,实现了重要的价值链协同效应。


As of June 30, Amplats reported a cash balance, net of debt and lease liabilities, of $791 million. Even excluding a customer’s $693 million early-bird remittance, the corporate balance sheet is in a net cash position.
截至 6 月 30 日,安普拉斯报告了净债务和租赁负债的现金余额为 7.91 亿美元。即使不考虑客户的 6.93 亿美元提前汇款,公司资产负债表也处于净现金位置。


On depressed PGM prices, too, Amplats is cheap. It trades at 12.3 times estimated 2024 earnings, six times enterprise value to 2024 consensus Ebitda and offers a 2.8% dividend yield. If earnings returned to 2021 levels, the current EV-to-Ebitda multiple would tumble to 1.5 times.
在压低的 PGM 价格方面,安普拉斯也很便宜。它以预计 2024 年收益的 12.3 倍交易,以 2024 年共识 Ebitda 的六倍企业价值交易,并提供 2.8%的股息率。如果收益恢复到 2021 年水平,当前的 EV-to-Ebitda 倍数将下降到 1.5 倍。


With 5 of the 11 analysts covering Amplats saying sell and only two saying buy, the Street is bearish. Not even management is bullish, to judge from the insiders’ sale of 9,543 shares over the past 12 months for proceeds of $397,174.
11 位分析师中有 5 位建议卖出 Amplats 股票,只有 2 位建议买入,市场看跌。甚至管理层也不看好,从内部人士在过去 12 个月内出售 9,543 股获得 397,174 美元的收益来看。


The set-up in platinum-group metals “is pretty much the same case as uranium five years ago,” López, whose prescient view on uranium six years ago informed our bullish analysis of that radioactive element (see the issue of Grant’s dated June 1, 2018). “We look at demand, and demand is actually increasing compared to what people expected,” says López. “Production is decreasing because the prices are really wrong. There is no substitute for PGMs.”
白金族金属的情况“基本上与五年前的铀情况相似,”洛佩斯说。六年前他对铀的前瞻性观点为我们对这种放射性元素的看涨分析提供了信息(请参阅 2018 年 6 月 1 日的 Grant's 期刊)。洛佩斯说:“我们看到需求正在增加,实际上比人们预期的要高。”“生产正在减少,因为价格实在是太低了。白金族金属没有替代品。”



Botox cure for credit 肉毒杆菌治疗信用

There’s trouble below the unwrinkled, unlined and oddly youthful appearance of the markets in corporate debt.
公司债券市场下面的表面看起来平整、没有皱纹、奇怪地年轻。

China writes the bearish script
中国写下了看跌的剧本

The world’s largest consumer of most raw materials has turned seller.
世界上消耗大多数原材料最多的国家已经转变为卖家。