ETH 2030 Price Target and Optimal Portfolio Allocations
ETH 2030 价格目标和最佳投资组合配置

Please note that VanEck has positions in ether and bitcoin.
请注意，VanEck 持有以太币和比特币头寸。

The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital assets in this blog are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
本博客中提供的任何数字资产的信息、估值方案和价格目标并不旨在作为财务建议、购买或出售这些数字资产的建议或任何行动号召。这些场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，可能会阻碍这些数字资产的性能；他们的实际未来表现是未知的，并且可能与本文中的任何估值情景或预测/预测有很大不同。本文中包含的任何预测、预测或前瞻性陈述都是基于我们研究的模拟结果，自本新闻稿发布之日起有效，如有更改，恕不另行通知，并且仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

We anticipate that spot ether ETFs are nearing approval to trade on U.S. stock exchanges. This development would allow financial advisors and institutional investors to hold this unique asset with the security of qualified custodians, and benefit from the pricing and liquidity advantages characteristic of ETFs. In response, we've updated our financial model and reevaluated the fundamental investment case for ETH. We also performed a series of quantitative analyses on how ether (ETH) interacts with bitcoin (BTC) in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, focusing on the tradeoff between risk and return.
我们预计现货以太坊 ETF 即将获准在美国证券交易所交易。这一发展将使财务顾问和机构投资者能够在合格托管人的担保下持有这一独特的资产，并受益于 ETF 的定价和流动性优势特征。作为回应，我们更新了财务模型并重新评估了 ETH 的基本投资案例。我们还对传统 60/40 投资组合中以太坊 (ETH) 与比特币 (BTC) 如何相互作用进行了一系列定量分析，重点关注风险与回报之间的权衡。

The key takeaways of this piece are:
本文的要点是：

1. Driven by a strong value proposition to entrepreneurs, the Ethereum network is likely to continue its rapid market share growth from traditional financial market participants and, increasingly, Big Tech. Should it do so while maintaining its dominant position among smart contract platforms, we see a credible path to $66B in free cash flow to token holders supporting a $2.2 trillion asset, or $22k per coin, by 2030.
   在对企业家的强大价值主张的推动下，以太坊网络可能会继续从传统金融市场参与者以及越来越多的大型科技公司那里获得快速增长的市场份额。如果它在这样做的同时保持其在智能合约平台中的主导地位，我们将看到一条可靠的途径，到 2030 年，代币持有者将获得 66B 美元的自由现金流，支持 2.2 万亿美元的资产，或每枚代币 2.2 万美元。
2. Adding a modest allocation of cryptocurrencies (up to 6%) to a traditional 60/40 portfolio can substantially improve the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio with a relatively minor impact on drawdown. An allocation close to 70/30 between bitcoin and ether for a crypto-only portfolio provided the best risk-adjusted returns.
   在传统的 60/40 投资组合中添加适度的加密货币配置（最多 6%）可以显着提高投资组合的夏普比率，同时对回撤的影响相对较小。对于纯加密投资组合，比特币和以太币之间接近 70/30 的分配提供了最佳的风险调整回报。

• Ether’s Investment Case: An Evaluation
  以太坊的投资案例：评估
• Ether Price Target Update for 2030: Base, Bull, and Bear Case Scenarios
  2030 年以太坊价格目标更新：基本情况、牛市情景和熊市情景
• Bitcoin and Ether: Optimal Portfolio Allocations
  比特币和以太币：最佳投资组合配置
• Ether Investment Risks 以太坊投资风险

The Investment Case for Ethereum: An Evaluation
以太坊的投资案例：评估

Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is a novel asset that exposes investors to a high-growth, internet-native commercial system called Ethereum that threatens to disrupt existing financial businesses and Big Tech platforms like Google and Apple. Ethereum is a successful digital economy that attracts -~20M monthly active users while settling $4T in settlement value and facilitating $5.5T in stablecoin transfers over the last twelve months. Ethereum secures over $91.2B in stablecoins, $6.7B in tokenized off-chain assets, and $308B in digital assets. The centerpiece asset of this financial system is the ETH token, and in our updated base case, we believe it to be worth $22k by 2030, representing a total return of 487% from today’s ETH price, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.8%.
以太坊（ETH）是以太坊的原生代币，是一种新颖的资产，它让投资者接触到名为以太坊的高增长、互联网原生商业系统，该系统有可能扰乱现有的金融业务以及谷歌和苹果等大型科技平台。以太坊是一个成功的数字经济体，每月吸引约 2000 万活跃用户，同时在过去 12 个月内结算了 4T 美元的结算价值并促进了 5.5T 美元的稳定币转账。以太坊拥有超过 91.2B 美元的稳定币、6.7B 美元的代币化链下资产以及 308B 美元的数字资产。这个金融系统的核心资产是 ETH 代币，在我们更新的基本情况中，我们认为到 2030 年它的价值将达到 2.2 万美元，相当于今天 ETH 价格的 487% 的总回报率，即复合年增长率 (CAGR) 37.8%。

We project ETH’s 2030 valuation based upon a forecast of $66B in free cashflows generated by Ethereum and accruing to the ETH token. We estimate 33x valuation multiple on those cashflows. As Ethereum is a platform for applications, we begin our valuation by estimating the market size of business sectors that blockchain applications will disrupt. We estimate the total addressable market (TAM) to be $15T based on annual revenues in these industry verticals:
我们根据以太坊产生并累积到 ETH 代币的自由现金流 66B 美元的预测来预测 ETH 2030 年的估值。我们估计这些现金流的估值倍数为 33 倍。由于以太坊是一个应用程序平台，因此我们通过估计区块链应用程序将扰乱的业务领域的市场规模来开始估值。根据这些垂直行业的年收入，我们估计总潜在市场 (TAM) 为 15T 美元：

• Finance, Banking, and Payments (FBP) - $10.9T
  金融、银行和支付 (FBP) - $10.9T
• Marketing, Advertising, Social and Gaming (MASG) - $1.1T
  营销、广告、社交和游戏 (MASG) - $1.1T
• Infrastructure (I) - $1.8T
  基础设施 (I) - $1.8T
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) - $1.4T
  人工智能 (AI) - $1.4T

From our TAM figures, we apply market capture estimates of these revenues utilizing blockchains such as Ethereum. These penetration rates are 7.5%, 20%, 10%, and 5% for FBP, MASG, I, and AI, respectively (Fig 6). After that, we predict the share of crypto applications built on Ethereum rather than other blockchains, and our base case is 70%. We then estimate the fees that Ethereum will charge app users, which is effectively a “take rate” on these applications’ revenues, and we calculate this will be 5-10%. We recently updated our ETH model from Spring 2023 to add the AI end-market to reflect Ethereum’s great potential in that sector. The other impactful adjustments to our previous model are increased burn of ETH supply, greater end market capture, and a higher take rate on underlying economic activity. We believe these changes are justified by fundamentals, recent innovations that make Ethereum more accessible, and changing politics in the U.S.
根据我们的 TAM 数据，我们利用以太坊等区块链对这些收入进行市场占领估计。 FBP、MASG、I 和 AI 的渗透率分别为 7.5%、20%、10% 和 5%（图 6）。之后，我们预测基于以太坊而不是其他区块链构建的加密应用程序的份额，我们的基本情况是 70%。然后，我们估计以太坊将向应用程序用户收取的费用，这实际上是这些应用程序收入的“收取率”，我们计算出该费用将为 5-10%。我们最近从 2023 年春季开始更新了 ETH 模型，添加了人工智能终端市场，以反映以太坊在该领域的巨大潜力。对我们之前模型的其他有影响力的调整是增加 ETH 供应的消耗、更大的终端市场占领以及对基础经济活动的更高的采用率。我们相信这些变化是合理的，因为基本面、最近的创新使以太坊更容易使用，以及美国政治的变化。

Fig 1. 图。1。

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 5/28/2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Trailing Twelve-Months (TTM) refers to the past 12 consecutive months of data up to the current date, used for financial analysis to provide a recent historical perspective. Free Cash Flow (FCF) is the net amount of ether available from the network's operations after considering all network costs, like gas fees used for transactions and smart contracts. Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), represents the total market value of all ether (ETH) tokens, based on the current price, if the entire projected supply were already in circulation. This includes both the existing supply and any future ether that will be minted.
来源：Artemis XYZ 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。不建议购买或出售本文提及的任何名称。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。追踪十二个月（TTM）是指截至当前日期的过去连续 12 个月的数据，用于财务分析以提供近期历史视角。自由现金流（FCF）是在考虑所有网络成本（例如用于交易和智能合约的天然气费）后，网络运营中可用的以太币净额。完全稀释估值（FDV）代表所有以太坊（ETH）代币的总市场价值（基于当前价格）（如果整个预计供应量已在流通）。这包括现有的供应量和未来将铸造的任何以太币。

Fig 2. 图 2.

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售的建议，或作为对 ETH 未来表现的预测。 ETH 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

We believe ETH is a revolutionary asset with few parallels in the non-crypto financial world. ETH can be thought of as “Digital Oil” because it is consumed by engaging in activity on Ethereum. ETH can also be viewed as “Programmable Money” as the financialization of ETH and other Ethereum assets can occur automatically, without any intermediary or censorship, on the Ethereum blockchain. Furthermore, we consider ETH a “Yield Bearing Commodity” because it can earn yield in ETH by being pledged, non-custodially, to validators who govern the Ethereum network. Finally, we believe ETH can be deemed an “Internet Reserve Currency” as it is the base asset that prices all activity and most digital assets within the $1T+ Ethereum ecosystem and its 50+ connecting blockchains.
我们相信 ETH 是一种革命性的资产，在非加密金融世界中很少有类似的资产。 ETH 可以被认为是“数字石油”，因为它是通过在以太坊上进行活动而消耗的。 ETH 也可以被视为“可编程货币”，因为 ETH 和其他以太坊资产的金融化可以在以太坊区块链上自动发生，无需任何中介或审查。此外，我们认为 ETH 是一种“收益商品”，因为它可以通过非托管地质押给管理以太坊网络的验证者来赚取 ETH 收益。最后，我们认为 ETH 可以被视为“互联网储备货币”，因为它是为 1T+ 以太坊生态系统及其 50 多个连接区块链内的所有活动和大多数数字资产定价的基础资产。

Fig 3. 图 3.

Ethereum Ecosystem Daily Active Users Have Grown 71% CAGR
以太坊生态系统每日活跃用户复合年增长率达 71%

Source: Artemis XYZas of 5/28/2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) represents the rate at which the value of ether (ETH) has grown annually over a specified time period. This metric is used to provide a smoothed annual growth rate, eliminating fluctuations and giving a clearer picture of long-term investment performance.
来源：Artemis XYZas，2024 年 5 月 28 日。不建议购买或出售本文提及的任何名称。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。复合年增长率（CAGR）代表以太坊（ETH）价值在指定时间段内每年增长的速度。该指标用于提供平滑的年增长率，消除波动并更清晰地了解长期投资绩效。

Regardless of its classification, ETH benefits from the growing usage of the Ethereum blockchain. Ethereum is a vibrant economic platform that can be considered a “Digital Mall” whose usership has grown ~1500%, and revenue has surged at a 161% CAGR since 2019. Over the past year, Ethereum has generated $3.4B in revenue, and this value accrues directly to ETH holders. Because ETH must be purchased to utilize Ethereum, all ETH holders benefit from the demand-driven currency inflows. Additionally, ~80% of these revenues in ETH are used to buy back and “burn” circulating ETH to remove it from circulation permanently. This is analogous to irreversible stock buybacks.
无论其分类如何，ETH 都受益于以太坊区块链的不断增长的使用。以太坊是一个充满活力的经济平台，可以被视为“数字商城”，自 2019 年以来，其用户量增长了约 1500%，收入以 161% 的复合年增长率飙升。在过去的一年里，以太坊产生了 3.4B 美元的收入，这价值直接计入 ETH 持有者手中。由于必须购买 ETH 才能使用以太坊，因此所有 ETH 持有者都受益于需求驱动的货币流入。此外，大约 80% 的 ETH 收入用于回购和“销毁”流通中的 ETH，以使其永久退出流通。这类似于不可逆转的股票回购。

Over the last six months, 541k of ETH worth $1.58B, 0.4% of all supply, has been removed. Thus, holders of ETH double benefit from Ethereum activity due to both usership-driven ETH purchases and the burning of supply. ETH users can also earn a yield on ETH, in ETH, which amounts to ~3.5% per annum. This is done by “staking” ETH to Ethereum network entities called validators to provide them with the necessary collateral bond to run the Ethereum network.
在过去的六个月中，价值 $1.58B 的 541k ETH（占总供应量的 0.4%）已被移除。因此，由于用户驱动的 ETH 购买和供应的消耗，ETH 持有者从以太坊活动中获得双重收益。 ETH 用户还可以获得 ETH 收益，以 ETH 计，每年约为 3.5%。这是通过将 ETH“质押”到称为验证器的以太坊网络实体来完成的，为它们提供运行以太坊网络所需的抵押债券。

Fig 4. 图 4。

Ethereum Revenue Per User Exceeds Most Web2 Businesses
以太坊每用户收入超过大多数 Web2 企业

Source: Business of Apps, Artemis XYZ as of 5/28/2024.
资料来源：应用业务，Artemis XYZ，截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。

Compared to web2 applications, Ethereum ($3.4B) generates more revenue than Etsy ($2.7B), Twitch ($2.6B) and Roblox ($2.7B). Ethereum (20M) boasts more monthly active users than Instacart (14M), Robinhood (10.6M), and Vrbo (17.5M). Additionally, the average Ethereum monthly active user generates $172 in annual revenue, comparable to Apple Music, $100; Netflix, $142; and Instagram, $25. We categorize Ethereum as a platform business similar to the Apple App Store or Google Play. However, Ethereum has a substantial edge over web2 platforms because it offers the Ethereum users and Ethereum app business owners unique value propositions not available outside of crypto.
与 web2 应用程序相比，以太坊 ( $3.4B) 产生的收入比 Etsy ( $2.7B)、Twitch ( $2.6B) 和 Roblox ($2.7B) 更多。以太坊（2000 万）拥有比 Instacart（1400 万）、Robinhood（1060 万）和 Vrbo（1750 万）更多的月活跃用户。此外，以太坊每月活跃用户平均产生 172 美元的年收入，相当于 Apple Music 的 100 美元； Netflix，142 美元；和 Instagram，25 美元。我们将以太坊归类为类似于 Apple App Store 或 Google Play 的平台业务。然而，以太坊相对于 web2 平台具有巨大的优势，因为它为以太坊用户和以太坊应用程序企业主提供了加密货币之外无法提供的独特价值主张。

The most appealing aspect of using Ethereum is its potential cost savings to businesses and users. Whereas Apple and Google take around 30% of hosted application revenue, Ethereum currently extracts around 24% (14% for non-DeFI apps). Additionally, we believe that Ethereum’s take rate will drop to 5-10% over the next 18 months as activity shifts to less-expensive Ethereum Layer-2 Blockchains (current take rates of 0.25%-3%). For more information on Ethereum Layer-2s, see our April report on the topic. From the payments angle, credit card processors and other payment apps like PayPal syphon 1.94% on all payments (2.9% on business transactions) while Visa charges 1.79-2.43% or more. By contrast, on Ethereum, users pay around 0.001% for a simple transfer, which is less than 1/1000th of the cost of current leading payment applications.
使用以太坊最吸引人的方面是它可以为企业和用户节省潜在的成本。苹果和谷歌占据了托管应用程序收入的 30% 左右，而以太坊目前则占据了 24% 左右（非 DeFi 应用程序为 14%）。此外，我们认为，随着活动转向更便宜的以太坊第 2 层区块链（目前的采用率为 0.25%-3%），以太坊的采用率将在未来 18 个月内下降至 5-10%。有关以太坊 Layer-2 的更多信息，请参阅我们四月份有关该主题的报告。从支付角度来看，信用卡处理商和 PayPal 等其他支付应用程序对所有支付收取 1.94% 的费用（商业交易收取 2.9%），而 Visa 则收取 1.79-2.43% 或更多。相比之下，在以太坊上，用户为一次简单转账支付的费用约为 0.001%，不到当前领先支付应用程序成本的 1/1000。

Compared to data-centric social networking platforms like Facebook, we believe Ethereum may enable more capable and lucrative applications for entrepreneurs. Ethereum allows applications to freely interconnect and innovate using a permissionless deployment environment and open-source data. Thus, anyone can create an application and tap into important data, including all user activity on a chain - which would be like Visa giving away customer payment data for free! For example, the social media app called Farcaster currently collects $75.5 per monthly active user, whereas Facebook makes around $44. Even more compelling, the incentive structure of open-source has spawned a far more engaging application as the average daily time on the app for Facebook is 31 minutes versus 350 minutes for Farcaster.
与 Facebook 等以数据为中心的社交网络平台相比，我们相信以太坊可以为企业家提供更强大、更有利可图的应用程序。以太坊允许应用程序使用无需许可的部署环境和开源数据自由互连和创新。因此，任何人都可以创建应用程序并利用重要数据，包括链上的所有用户活动 - 这就像 Visa 免费赠送客户支付数据一样！例如，名为 Farcaster 的社交媒体应用程序目前每个月活跃用户收取 75.5 美元，而 Facebook 的收入约为 44 美元。更引人注目的是，开源的激励结构催生了更具吸引力的应用程序，因为 Facebook 该应用程序的平均每日使用时间为 31 分钟，而 Farcaster 为 350 分钟。

The result of Ethereum’s attributes is that some of the margins earned by Big Finance, Big Tech, and Big Data could be transferred to users in the form of consumer welfare. As more data is generated in public and more commerce is moved off expensive, closed financial rails, business moats will erode. The result will be potential business formation around the low-margin economics of open-source. Consumers and app builders will migrate to Ethereum because it is cheaper and provides more value than current stalwarts. We believe that, over the next 5-10 years, between 7% and 20% of Web2/Big Finance business topline, trillions of dollars, can be squeezed by systems like Ethereum and remitted mostly back to users and app builders. Furthermore, the unique ownership properties of Ethereum allow for a censorship-free digital existence on social media and gaming applications. These features will be increasingly valuable if government censorship of information continues to grow.
以太坊属性带来的结果是，大金融、大科技、大数据赚取的部分利润可以以消费者福利的形式转移给用户。随着越来越多的数据在公共领域产生，越来越多的商业活动脱离昂贵、封闭的金融轨道，商业护城河将会被侵蚀。其结果将是围绕开源的低利润经济形成潜在的业务。消费者和应用程序开发者将迁移到以太坊，因为它比当前的坚定支持者更便宜并且提供更多价值。我们相信，在未来 5-10 年里，Web2/大金融业务总收入的 7% 到 20%（数万亿美元）可以被以太坊等系统挤压，并将大部分汇回给用户和应用程序开发者。此外，以太坊独特的所有权属性允许社交媒体和游戏应用程序上不受审查的数字存在。如果政府对信息的审查继续加强，这些功能将变得越来越有价值。

There is also strong reason to believe blockchains like Ethereum will become important back-end infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence applications. The proliferation of AI Agents and an AI Agent economy will demand unrestrained transfer of value, definitive proof of humanity, and clearly defined data/model provenance. These unique properties are available on blockchains, but evade existing tech infrastructure. We explored many of the implications of crypto and AI in our February 2024 piece. We estimate that the TAM for global AI productivity gains may be as high as $8.5T by 2030. Based upon assumptions of business adoption of 66%, AI software value capture of 25%, and a 72% non-hardware value capture, we see the TAM of potential revenues for crypto and AI to be $911B by 2030, with $45.5B in revenues for open-source AI applications and infrastructure, of which $1.2B in revenues may flow back to ETH holders directly.
还有充分的理由相信像以太坊这样的区块链将成为人工智能应用程序的重要后端基础设施。人工智能代理和人工智能代理经济的激增将需要无限制的价值转移、明确的人性证明以及明确定义的数据/模型来源。这些独特的属性在区块链上可用，但避开了现有的技术基础设施。我们在 2024 年 2 月的文章中探讨了加密货币和人工智能的许多影响。我们估计，到 2030 年，全球人工智能生产力提升的 TAM 可能高达 8.5T 美元。基于 66% 的业务采用率、25% 的人工智能软件价值获取和 72% 的非硬件价值获取的假设，我们看到到 2030 年，加密货币和人工智能的潜在收入 TAM 将达到 911B 美元，其中开源人工智能应用程序和基础设施的收入为 45.5B 美元，其中 1.2B 美元的收入可能会直接流回 ETH 持有者。

Currently, the majority of activity on Ethereum is financial activity. Decentralized exchanges and banking protocols comprise 49% of Ethereum’s revenues, while 20% is accounted for by simple transfers of value. These revenues are bucketed under Finance, Banking, and Payments (FGP). Meanwhile, Infrastructure (I) takes up the next largest share, around 19%, which relates to decentralized businesses t, and creates software to service decentralized apps. Finally, we classify activity related to social media and NFTs within the Marketing, Advertising, Social Media, and Gaming (MASG) category. MASG contributed 11% of those revenues. Currently, AI plays a very minor role in generating revenue for Ethereum.
目前，以太坊上的大部分活动都是金融活动。去中心化交易所和银行协议占以太坊收入的 49%，而简单的价值转移占 20%。这些收入归入金融、银行和支付 (FGP) 类别。与此同时，基础设施 (I) 占据第二大份额，约为 19%，与去中心化业务相关，并创建为去中心化应用程序提供服务的软件。最后，我们将与社交媒体和 NFT 相关的活动归类为营销、广告、社交媒体和游戏 (MASG) 类别。 MASG 贡献了其中 11% 的收入。目前，人工智能在以太坊创收方面发挥的作用非常小。

Ethereum revenues from the aforementioned end-market activities are Ethereum revenue items. These include Transaction Fees, Layer-2 Settlement, Blockspace Ordering (MEV), and Security as a Service. Transaction Fees are charges users (and, in the future, autonomous agents) pay to engage with applications or transfer value on Ethereum. Layer-2 Settlement is the revenue derived from Ethereum Layer-2s Blockchains paying Ethereum for the privilege of “settling” transactions. MEV is revenue generated by users paying for the right to order a block of transactions. Security as a Service is the usage of ETH as collateral to “back” permissionless applications that need this value to perform their business functions. Over the last year, ~72% of Ethereum revenues stemmed from transactions, MEV made up around 19%, L2 settlements were around 9%, while Security as a Service has not officially launched.
上述终端市场活动产生的以太坊收入属于以太坊收入项目。其中包括交易费用、第 2 层结算、区块空间排序 (MEV) 和安全即服务。交易费用是用户（以及未来的自治代理）为参与以太坊上的应用程序或转移价值而支付的费用。 Layer-2 结算是来自以太坊 Layer-2 区块链向以太坊支付“结算”交易特权的收入。 MEV 是用户为订购一组交易的权利付费而产生的收入。安全即服务是使用 ETH 作为抵押品来“支持”需要该价值来执行其业务功能的无需许可的应用程序。去年，以太坊收入的约 72% 来自交易，MEV 约占 19%，L2 结算约 9%，而安全即服务尚未正式推出。

As we believe Ethereum’s strongest value proposition is to finance, we project in 2030 that 71% of Ethereum’s revenues will derive from financial businesses (FGP). Due to experimentation and the benefits of Ethereum’s open-source financial and data system, we believe MASG will grow to 17%, which will slightly displace Infrastructure, which will provide 8% of revenues. On the balance, AI will account for 2% of Ethereum’s revenues. However, we could see AI’s topline contribution grow by magnitude or more if decentralized AI software demonstrates its immense potential.
由于我们认为以太坊最强的价值主张是金融，因此我们预计到 2030 年，以太坊 71% 的收入将来自金融业务 (FGP)。由于实验以及以太坊开源金融和数据系统的优势，我们相信 MASG 将增长到 17%，这将略微取代基础设施，后者将提供 8% 的收入。总的来说，人工智能将占以太坊收入的 2%。然而，如果去中心化人工智能软件展现出其巨大的潜力，我们可以看到人工智能的收入贡献大幅增长或更多。

From the standpoint of revenue items, we estimate that individual mainnet transactions will only make up 1.5% of revenues. Layer-2 Settlements, which bundle blobs of transactions on the mainnet, will dramatically increase to roughly 76% of revenues. This is because we anticipate that the majority of activity will occur on Ethereum Layer-2 blockchains but that most of the value from those transactions will accrue to Ethereum. Meanwhile, MEV maintains its importance at 18% of proceeds, while Security as a Service will become 4.5% of Ethereum’s topline.
从收入项目来看，我们预计个人主网交易仅占收入的1.5%。 Layer-2 结算将主网上的大量交易捆绑在一起，将大幅增加至收入的 76% 左右。这是因为我们预计大部分活动将发生在以太坊第 2 层区块链上，但这些交易的大部分价值将归于以太坊。与此同时，MEV 的重要性保持在收益的 18%，而安全即服务将占以太坊总收入的 4.5%。

Fig 5. 图 5。

Ethereum Revenues are Skewed Toward Financial Applications
以太坊收入偏向金融应用

Source: Artemis XYZ, VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
资料来源：Artemis XYZ、VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。不建议购买或出售本文提及的任何名称。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。

Fig 6. 图 6.

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售的建议，或作为对 ETH 未来表现的预测。 ETH 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

Bitcoin and Ether: Optimal Portfolio Allocations
比特币和以太币：最佳投资组合配置

Analysis Overview 分析概述

We performed a study to evaluate the impact of including bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) in a traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, covering the period from 9/1/15 to 4/30/24. The analysis was conducted through five main components:
我们进行了一项研究，以评估将比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 纳入传统 60/40 投资组合的影响，研究时间范围为 2015 年 9 月 1 日至 2024 年 4 月 30 日。该分析通过五个主要部分进行：

1. Optimal constrained allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio: We assessed the ideal weight of BTC and ETH in a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio, limiting the maximum combined allocation to 6%. This was done using 169 sample portfolios with incremental additions of crypto exposure.
   传统 60/40 投资组合中的最优约束配置：我们评估了 60% 股票和 40% 债券投资组合中 BTC 和 ETH 的理想权重，将最大组合配置限制为 6%。这是使用 169 个样本投资组合以及增量增加的加密货币敞口完成的。
2. Drawdown and Sharpe ratio analysis: We examined the drawdown and Sharpe ratios of a subset of 16 representative portfolios to understand the risk-return tradeoffs. Adding a modest allocation of cryptocurrencies (up to 6%) to a traditional 60/40 portfolio can substantially improve the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio with a relatively minor impact on drawdown. For investors with high-risk tolerance (up to ~20% annualized volatility), an allocation of up to 20% continues to improve the risk/reward of the overall portfolio. Between BTC & ETH, we see a roughly 70/30 weight as providing the best risk-adjusted returns.
   回撤比率和夏普比率分析：我们检查了 16 个代表性投资组合子集的回撤比率和夏普比率，以了解风险回报权衡。在传统的 60/40 投资组合中添加适度的加密货币配置（最多 6%）可以显着提高投资组合的夏普比率，同时对回撤的影响相对较小。对于具有高风险承受能力（年化波动率高达约 20%）的投资者来说，高达 20% 的配置将继续改善整体投资组合的风险/回报。在 BTC 和 ETH 之间，我们认为大约 70/30 的权重可提供最佳的风险调整回报。
3. Optimal BTC and ETH allocation in a crypto-only portfolio: We analyzed every permutation of BTC and ETH weights in a portfolio consisting only of these two cryptocurrencies, aiming to maximize the Sharpe ratio and arrive at an ideal BTC/ETH weight.
   仅加密货币投资组合中的最佳 BTC 和 ETH 分配：我们分析了仅包含这两种加密货币的投资组合中 BTC 和 ETH 权重的每种排列，旨在最大化夏普比率并达到理想的 BTC/ETH 权重。
4. Efficient frontier using the optimal crypto portfolio: We investigated the optimal weighting of the ideal BTC/ETH portfolio to maximize return given various levels of volatility to illustrate a portion (with reasonable volatility levels) of the efficient frontier when adding crypto to the 60/40.
   使用最佳加密货币投资组合的有效前沿：我们研究了理想 BTC/ETH 投资组合的最佳权重，以在给定各种波动水平的情况下最大化回报，以说明将加密货币添加到 60/40 时的有效前沿的一部分（具有合理的波动水平） 。
5. Time dependence of efficient frontier results: We considered the impact of various starting points on the results from study #4. By doing so, we show that a larger crypto allocation helped portfolio risk-adjusted returns across every available time period.
   有效前沿结果的时间依赖性：我们考虑了各种起点对研究#4 结果的影响。通过这样做，我们表明，更大的加密货币配置有助于在每个可用时间段内进行投资组合风险调整后的回报。

1. Optimal allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio
1. 传统 60/40 投资组合的最佳配置

The primary goal was to identify the optimal allocation of BTC and ETH within a traditional 60/40 portfolio, constrained to a maximum of 6% combined weight in cryptocurrencies. The analysis involved creating 169 model portfolios with incremental crypto exposure (up to 3% each for BTC and ETH).
主要目标是确定传统 60/40 投资组合中 BTC 和 ETH 的最佳配置，加密货币的总权重最多为 6%。该分析涉及创建 169 个模型投资组合，其中加密货币敞口不断增加（BTC 和 ETH 各增加 3%）。

The results indicated that a portfolio with 3% bitcoin and 3% ether (alongside 57% S&P 500 and 37% U.S. Bonds) provided the highest return per unit of risk (standard deviation). In other words, while maintaining a conservative overall allocation of 6%, the maximum allowable allocation to crypto achieved the highest risk-adjusted returns.
结果表明，包含 3% 比特币和 3% 以太币（以及 57% 标准普尔 500 指数债券和 37% 美国债券）的投资组合提供了最高的每单位风险回报（标准差）。换句话说，在保持 6% 的保守总体配置的同时，加密货币的最大允许配置实现了最高的风险调整回报。

Optimal BTC/ETH Allocation in a Traditional 60/40 Portfolio for Risk-Adjusted Returns (9/1/2015 – 4/30/2024)
传统 60/40 投资组合中的最佳 BTC/ETH 配置以实现风险调整后的回报（2015 年 9 月 1 日 – 2024 年 4 月 30 日）

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

2. Drawdown and Sharpe ratio analysis
2.回撤和夏普比率分析

To evaluate the risk-return tradeoffs, we analyzed 16 representative 60/40 portfolios with incremental increases in crypto allocation, up to the same 6% maximum. The key findings were:
为了评估风险回报权衡，我们分析了 16 个具有代表性的 60/40 投资组合，其中加密货币分配逐渐增加，最高达到同样的 6%。主要发现是：

• Sharpe Ratio Improvement: Portfolio Sharpe ratio improves significantly as the crypto allocation increases.
  夏普比率改善：随着加密货币配置的增加，投资组合夏普比率显着改善。
• Minimal Impact on Drawdown: Maximum drawdown only increased marginally, making the higher crypto allocation an attractive tradeoff for many investors.
  对回撤的影响最小：最大回撤仅略有增加，这使得更高的加密货币配置对许多投资者来说是一个有吸引力的权衡。

Data on max drawdown and Sharpe ratio showed that a 6% crypto allocation resulted in a Sharpe ratio nearly double that of the 60/40 portfolio, while only modestly increasing drawdown. This emphasizes the very favorable risk-return tradeoff when adding BTC and ETH to a traditional portfolio.
最大回撤和夏普比率的数据显示，6% 的加密货币配置导致夏普比率几乎是 60/40 投资组合的两倍，而回撤仅略有增加。这强调了将 BTC 和 ETH 添加到传统投资组合时非常有利的风险回报权衡。

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sharpe ratio is a measure used in finance to evaluate the performance of an investment compared to a risk-free asset, after adjusting for its risk. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate of return (such as the return on U.S. Treasury Bonds) from the rate of return for a portfolio and then dividing the result by the standard deviation of the portfolio returns. This ratio helps investors understand how much excess return they are receiving for the extra volatility that they endure for holding a riskier asset. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates a more attractive risk-adjusted return. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。夏普比率是金融领域使用的一种衡量标准，用于评估投资在调整风险后与无风险资产相比的表现。它的计算方法是从投资组合的回报率中减去无风险回报率（例如美国国债的回报率），然后将结果除以投资组合回报的标准差。该比率有助于投资者了解他们因持有风险较高资产而承受的额外波动而获得了多少超额回报。夏普比率越高，表明风险调整后回报更具吸引力。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

3. Optimal BTC and ETH allocation in a crypto-only portfolio
3.纯加密货币投资组合中的最佳 BTC 和 ETH 分配

Focusing solely on a BTC and ETH portfolio, we tested every possible weighting combination to determine the optimal mix for maximizing the Sharpe ratio. The analysis revealed that the ideal allocation was 71.4 % bitcoin and 28.6% ether. This configuration yielded the highest Sharpe ratio, indicating the best risk-adjusted return for a crypto-only portfolio. The findings underscored investors' need to hold both cryptocurrencies to maximize benefits. The naïve allocation of 50% BTC and 50% ETH also demonstrated substantial advantages, reinforcing the value of diversification within the crypto asset class.
我们仅关注 BTC 和 ETH 投资组合，测试了每种可能的权重组合，以确定最大化夏普比率的最佳组合。分析显示，理想的配置是 71.4% 的比特币和 28.6% 的以太币。这种配置产生了最高的夏普比率，表明纯加密货币投资组合具有最佳的风险调整回报。研究结果强调了投资者需要同时持有这两种加密货币才能实现利益最大化。 50% BTC 和 50% ETH 的简单配置也表现出了巨大的优势，增强了加密资产类别多元化的价值。

Comparative Metrics of Various BTC-ETH Portfolio Allocations
各种 BTC-ETH 投资组合配置的比较指标

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Volatility refers to the fluctuation in the returns of an asset or portfolio as measured by the standard deviation of returns. Higher volatility indicates greater risk and potentially higher returns, affecting the risk-adjusted returns measured by the Sharpe Ratio. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) represents the rate at which the value of ether (ETH) has grown annually over a specified time period. This metric is used to provide a smoothed annual growth rate, eliminating fluctuations and giving a clearer picture of long-term investment performance. Sharpe ratio is a measure used in finance to evaluate the performance of an investment compared to a risk-free asset after adjusting for its risk. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate of return (such as the return on U.S. Treasury Bonds) from the rate of return for a portfolio and then dividing the result by the standard deviation of the portfolio returns. This ratio helps investors understand how much excess return they are receiving for the extra volatility that they endure for holding a riskier asset. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates a more attractive risk-adjusted return. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。波动性是指以回报标准差衡量的资产或投资组合回报的波动。较高的波动性表明较大的风险和潜在较高的回报，从而影响夏普比率衡量的风险调整回报。复合年增长率（CAGR）代表以太坊（ETH）价值在指定时间段内每年增长的速度。该指标用于提供平滑的年增长率，消除波动并更清晰地了解长期投资绩效。夏普比率是金融领域使用的一种衡量指标，用于评估投资在调整风险后与无风险资产相比的表现。它的计算方法是从投资组合的回报率中减去无风险回报率（例如美国国债的回报率），然后将结果除以投资组合回报的标准差。该比率有助于投资者了解他们因持有风险较高资产而承受的额外波动而获得了多少超额回报。夏普比率越高，表明风险调整后回报更具吸引力。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。 这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

4. The efficient frontier when Including crypto
4. 包含加密货币时的有效前沿

To arrive at the optimal allocation to crypto without constraints while maintaining reasonable volatility, we looked at the optimal weighting of the ideal crypto portfolio (28.6% ETH and 71.4% BTC) to be added to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. The goal was to maximize returns while maintaining given levels of volatility (13%-25%) and hence produce a portfolio of the efficient frontier using those assets, with levels of volatility typically associated with broad investor portfolios. The resulting scatterplot demonstrated that incorporating the optimal crypto portfolio into a traditional 60/40 portfolio could significantly enhance returns with varying degrees of risk.
为了在不受限制的情况下实现对加密货币的最佳配置，同时保持合理的波动性，我们研究了添加到传统 60/40 投资组合中的理想加密货币投资组合（28.6% ETH 和 71.4% BTC）的最佳权重。目标是在保持给定波动水平（13%-25%）的同时实现回报最大化，从而利用这些资产产生有效前沿的投资组合，其波动水平通常与广泛的投资者投资组合相关。由此产生的散点图表明，将最佳加密货币投资组合纳入传统的 60/40 投资组合可以在不同程度的风险下显着提高回报。

Additional Volatility from Digital Assets Helps Overall Returns
数字资产带来的额外波动有助于整体回报

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Volatility refers to the fluctuation in the returns of an asset or portfolio as measured by the standard deviation of returns. Higher volatility indicates greater risk and potentially higher returns, affecting the risk-adjusted returns measured by the Sharpe Ratio. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) represents the rate at which the value of ether (ETH) has grown annually over a specified time period. This metric is used to provide a smoothed annual growth rate, eliminating fluctuations and giving a clearer picture of long-term investment performance. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。波动性是指以回报标准差衡量的资产或投资组合回报的波动。较高的波动性表明较大的风险和潜在较高的回报，从而影响夏普比率衡量的风险调整回报。复合年增长率（CAGR）代表以太坊（ETH）价值在指定时间段内每年增长的速度。该指标用于提供平滑的年增长率，消除波动并更清晰地了解长期投资绩效。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行自己的研究并得出自己的结论。

This analysis revealed a nearly linear relationship, a rarity when looking at efficient frontiers, between risk and return as volatility rose. The conclusion is that increased crypto exposure led to very attractive risk/return tradeoffs.
这项分析揭示了随着波动性上升，风险与回报之间存在近乎线性的关系，这在研究有效边界时是罕见的。结论是，加密货币暴露的增加导致了非常有吸引力的风险/回报权衡。

Sharpe Ratio for Blended Portfolio Levels off at 22% Vol
混合投资组合的夏普比率稳定在 22% Vol

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

5. Time dependence of efficient frontier results
5. 有效前沿结果的时间依赖性

To determine whether different starting points have an impact on the risk/reward profile of the combined ideal crypto and 60/40 portfolios, we repeated the analysis in 4, while repeatedly moving the starting point 1 quarter forward. Our only constraint was to include at least 3 years of returns. As such, we were able to produce 23 sets of results, and remove time dependence as a variable from the analysis.
为了确定不同的起点是否会对理想加密货币和 60/40 组合投资组合的风险/回报状况产生影响，我们重复了第 4 部分中的分析，同时反复将起点向前移了第 1 个季度。我们唯一的限制是包含至少 3 年的回报。因此，我们能够生成 23 组结果，并从分析中删除时间依赖性作为变量。

Our findings were: 我们的发现是：

• The optimal weight of the ideal crypto portfolio increased as risk is added across all time periods.
  随着所有时间段风险的增加，理想加密货币投资组合的最佳权重也会增加。

Weights Across Volatility for Time Independent Portfolios
与时间无关的投资组合的波动率权重

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions. 
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行自己的研究并得出自己的结论。

• Higher crypto allocations allowed for higher CAGRs across all time periods.
  更高的加密货币分配可以在所有时间段实现更高的复合年增长率。

CAGR Across Volatility for Time Independent Portfolios
与时间无关的投资组合的波动性复合年增长率

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

• Sharpe Ratios generally increased with volatility and crypto allocations.
  夏普比率通常随着波动性和加密货币分配而增加。

Sharpe Across Volatility for Time Independent Portfolios
与时间无关的投资组合的波动性夏普

Source: VanEck Research as of 5/28/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information, valuation scenarios, and price targets in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a projection of how ETH and BTC will perform in the future. Actual future performance of ETH and BTC is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：VanEck Research 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。本博客中的信息、估值情景和价格目标无意作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售建议，或作为对 ETH 和 BTC 未来表现的预测。 ETH 和 BTC 的实际未来表现尚不清楚，并且可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍绩效。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

In other words, the results from study #4 are independent of the starting point, and thus bolster the case for including a balanced mix of ETH & BTC up to the 6% weight we studied.
换句话说，研究 #4 的结果与起点无关，因此支持了将 ETH 和 BTC 平衡混合到我们研究的 6% 权重的理由。

Ether Investment Risks 以太坊投资风险

While ETH boasts a market cap of over $400 billion and is considered a well-established smart contracts platform, it's important to note that investing in ETH comes with significant risks.
虽然 ETH 的市值超过 4000 亿美元，并且被认为是一个完善的智能合约平台，但值得注意的是，投资 ETH 会带来巨大的风险。

1. Dependence on speculation
   依赖投机
   1. At this stage, Ethereum’s ecosystem is heavily dependent upon speculation to generate revenues. If the overall appetite for risk declines, ETH may exhibit substantial downside beta to the SP500 or NASDAQ Composite.
      现阶段，以太坊的生态系统严重依赖投机来产生收入。如果整体风险偏好下降，ETH 可能会对 SP500 或纳斯达克综合指数表现出大幅下行贝塔值。
2. Regulatory risk  监管风险
   1. Depending upon regulation. ETH or many of the assets within its ecosystem may be classified as securities. This could cause many Ethereum businesses to have to register with the SEC or face serious legal consequences.
      取决于监管。 ETH 或其生态系统内的许多资产可能被归类为证券。这可能导致许多以太坊企业必须向 SEC 注册，否则将面临严重的法律后果。
   2. The largest financial firms have substantial lobbyist presence as well as former employees appointed to the highest levels of most governments around the world. These former employees could create regulatory moats that disfavor disrupters like Ethereum.
      最大的金融公司拥有大量的游说者，以及被任命为世界上大多数政府最高层职位的前雇员。这些前雇员可能会创造出不利于以太坊等颠覆者的监管护城河。
3. Interest rate risk  利率风险
   1. As a high-risk asset, rate hikes or otherwise restrictive global liquidity could have an outsized impact on ETH’s valuation compared to other asset classes.
      作为一种高风险资产，与其他资产类别相比，加息或其他限制性全球流动性可能会对 ETH 的估值产生巨大影响。
4. Competition  竞赛
   1. The emerging smart contract platform space is incredibly competitive. Though Ethereum has a substantial lead, high performance blockchain such as Solana and Sui have some technical advantages and have focused on business development and user experience. This may allow them to challenge Ethereum’s dominance over the long run.
      新兴的智能合约平台空间竞争异常激烈。尽管以太坊大幅领先，但 Solana 和 Sui 等高性能区块链具有一定的技术优势，并且专注于业务发展和用户体验。从长远来看，这可能会让他们挑战以太坊的主导地位。
5. Financial firms evolve  金融公司不断发展
   1. One of the biggest advantages of Ethereum is that it enables a cheaper financial system because it removes many high-cost aspects of the current financial system. If financial firms pivot to implement cost savings measures, they could retain user base.
      以太坊的最大优势之一是它可以实现更便宜的金融系统，因为它消除了当前金融系统的许多高成本方面。如果金融公司转向实施成本节约措施，他们就可以保留用户群。
   2. Existing financial firms could also create rival blockchain smart contract platforms that cut into Ethereum’s long-term potential.
      现有的金融公司还可以创建竞争对手的区块链智能合约平台，以发挥以太坊的长期潜力。
6. Geopolitical  地缘政治
   1. Money control is the most important domain of government power. Geopolitical events, such as major regional war or even elevated geopolitical tensions, could push the governments around the world to squash non-sovereign financial systems and forms of money.
      货币控制是政府权力最重要的领域。地缘政治事件，例如重大地区战争，甚至地缘政治紧张局势加剧，可能会促使世界各国政府压制非主权金融体系和货币形式。

Conclusion 结论

The analysis clearly shows that adding a modest allocation of cryptocurrencies (up to 6%) to a traditional 60/40 portfolio can substantially improve the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio with a relatively minor impact on drawdown. An allocation close to 70/30 between bitcoin and ether for a crypto-only portfolio provided the best risk-adjusted returns.
分析清楚地表明，在传统的 60/40 投资组合中添加适度的加密货币配置（最多 6%）可以大幅提高投资组合的夏普比率，而对回撤的影响相对较小。对于纯加密货币投资组合，比特币和以太坊之间的分配接近 70/30，提供了最佳的风险调整回报。

Investors should consider their individual risk tolerance, but the data suggests that a balanced inclusion of BTC and ETH can offer outsized benefits in terms of return enhancement relative to the incremental risk introduced. The findings highlight the potential of cryptocurrencies to improve portfolio performance in a controlled and measurable way.
投资者应考虑自己的个人风险承受能力，但数据表明，相对于引入的增量风险，平衡地纳入 BTC 和 ETH 可以在回报增强方面带来巨大的好处。研究结果强调了加密货币以受控和可衡量的方式提高投资组合绩效的潜力。

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