The Future of Payments 支付的未来

While payments was the primary use case highlighted in the original Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008, recent developments over the last few years have made blockchain-based payments increasingly viable, never mind preferable, when compared to traditional payment methods. With billions of dollars deployed over the last decade into developing the underlying blockchain infrastructure, we now have systems that can operate at “payments scale."
虽然支付是 2008 年原始比特币白皮书中强调的主要用例，但过去几年的最新发展使得基于区块链的支付变得越来越可行，与传统支付方式相比更不用说更可取了。在过去十年中，我们投入了数十亿美元来开发底层区块链基础设施，现在我们拥有了可以以“支付规模”运行的系统。

Blockchains are on a "Moore's Law"-like cost and performance curve, where the cost to store data on blockchains has fallen several orders of magnitude in just the last few years. Following Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade (EIP-4844), Layer2 environments like Arbitrum & Optimism have median cost per transactions of ~$0.01, while modern alternative Layer1s are quickly approaching fractions of a penny.
区块链处于类似“摩尔定律”的成本和性能曲线上，在区块链上存储数据的成本在过去几年中已经下降了几个数量级。继以太坊的 Dencun 升级 (EIP-4844) 之后，Arbitrum & Optimism 等 Layer2 环境的每笔交易成本中值约为 0.01 美元，而现代替代 Layer1 正在迅速接近一美分的几分之一。

Alongside more performant and cost-effective infrastructure, the rise of stablecoins has been explosive and persistent, and clearly stands out as a secular trend among the otherwise volatile crypto industry. Visa’s recent launch of its public-facing stablecoin dashboard (Visa Onchain Analytics) provides a glimpse into this growth and demonstrates how stablecoins and the underlying blockchain infrastructure are being used to facilitate payments globally. Stablecoin transaction volumes across the market are up ~3.5x year-over-year. When focusing the analysis on volumes that appear to be directly initiated by consumers and business (excludes automated trading or smart contract operations), Visa estimates stablecoin transaction volumes over the last 30 days to be ~$265 billion (~$3.2 trillion annualized run rate). To put that into perspective, that is ~2x PayPal’s payment volume in 2023 (from their 2024 annual report) and approximately equivalent to the GDP of India or the UK.
除了性能更高、成本效益更高的基础设施之外，稳定币的崛起具有爆炸性和持久性，并且在原本不稳定的加密货币行业中显然是一种长期趋势。 Visa 最近推出了面向公众的稳定币仪表板（ Visa Onchain Analytics ），让我们可以一睹这一增长趋势，并展示稳定币和底层区块链基础设施如何用于促进全球支付。整个市场的稳定币交易量同比增长约 3.5 倍。当重点分析似乎由消费者和企业直接发起的交易量（不包括自动交易或智能合约操作）时，Visa 估计过去 30 天内的稳定币交易量约为 2650 亿美元（年化运行率约为 3.2 万亿美元）。从这个角度来看，这大约是PayPal 2023 年支付量的 2 倍（来自 2024 年年度报告），大约相当于印度或英国的 GDP 。

We’ve spent a lot of time digging into the underlying drivers of this growth and are convinced that blockchains have significant potential to be the future of payments.
我们花了很多时间挖掘这种增长的潜在驱动因素，并坚信区块链具有成为支付未来的巨大潜力。

Payments Industry Context
支付行业背景

In order to grasp the fundamental drivers of growth in the crypto payments market, we must first understand some historical context. The payments infrastructure we use today in the US and internationally (e.g., ACH, SWIFT) was built more than 50 years ago in the 1970s. The ability to send money around the globe was a groundbreaking achievement and a milestone in the world of finance.
为了掌握加密支付市场增长的根本驱动力，我们必须首先了解一些历史背景。我们今天在美国和国际上使用的支付基础设施（例如 ACH、SWIFT）是 50 多年前的 20 世纪 70 年代建立的。在全球范围内汇款的能力是一项突破性的成就，也是金融界的一个里程碑。

However, the global payments infrastructure is now largely antiquated, analog, and fragmented. It is an expensive and inefficient system that operates within limited banking hours and relies on many intermediaries. One of the notable issues with the current payment infrastructure is the lack of a global standard. Fragmentation hinders seamless international transactions and creates complexities in establishing consistent protocols.
然而，全球支付基础设施现在基本上已经过时、模拟且分散。这是一个昂贵且低效的系统，在有限的银行时间内运行并依赖许多中介机构。当前支付基础设施的显着问题之一是缺乏全球标准。碎片化阻碍了无缝国际交易，并为建立一致的协议带来了复杂性。

The emergence of real-time settlement systems has been a significant advancement in recent times. The success of real-time payment schemes internationally such as UPI in India and PIX in Brazil has been well-documented. In the US, government and consortium-led efforts have been made to introduce real-time settlement systems such as Same Day ACH, RTP by the Clearing House, and FedNow by the Federal Reserve. The adoption of these new payment methods has been muted and the fragmentation across a number of competing interests poses a great challenge.
实时结算系统的出现是近年来的重大进步。印度的 UPI和巴西的 PIX等实时支付方案在国际上的成功已有充分记录。在美国，政府和财团主导的努力引入了实时结算系统，例如清算所的 Same Day ACH、RTP 和美联储的 FedNow。这些新的支付方式的采用一直没有被采用，而且许多相互竞争的利益之间的分散带来了巨大的挑战。

Fintech companies have tried to provide UX improvements on top of this legacy infrastructure. Players like Wise, Nium, and Thunes, for example, enable customers to pool liquidity in accounts around the globe so that they can make transactions feel like they’re instant for the user. However, they don’t rectify the limitations of the underlying payment rails and are not capital efficient solutions.
金融科技公司试图在这一传统基础设施的基础上提供用户体验改进。例如，Wise、Nium 和 Thunes 等参与者使客户能够汇集全球账户中的流动性，以便让用户感觉交易是即时的。然而，它们并没有纠正底层支付渠道的局限性，也不是资本效率高的解决方案。

The Complexities of Payments Today
当今支付的复杂性

Given the fragmented nature of incumbent financial systems, payments transactions have become increasingly complex. This situation is perhaps best exemplified by looking at the anatomy of a cross-border payments transaction, which contains a number of pain points:
鉴于现有金融系统的分散性，支付交易变得越来越复杂。这种情况也许可以通过跨境支付交易的剖析来最好地说明，其中包含许多痛点：

• Multiple Intermediaries: Cross-border payments typically involve multiple intermediaries such as local and correspondent banks, clearing houses, FX brokers, and payment networks. Each intermediary adds layers of complexity to the transaction process, leading to delays and increased costs.
  多个中介机构：跨境支付通常涉及多个中介机构，例如当地银行和代理银行、清算所、外汇经纪商和支付网络。每个中介机构都增加了交易过程的复杂性，导致延迟和成本增加。

• Lack of Standardization: The lack of standardized processes and formats can lead to inefficiencies. Different countries and financial institutions may have varying regulatory requirements, payment systems, and messaging standards, making it challenging to streamline the payment process.
  缺乏标准化：缺乏标准化流程和格式可能导致效率低下。不同的国家和金融机构可能有不同的监管要求、支付系统和消息传递标准，这使得简化支付流程具有挑战性。

• Manual Processing: Legacy systems lack automation, real-time processing capabilities, and interoperability with other systems, resulting in delays and manual intervention.
  手动处理：遗留系统缺乏自动化、实时处理能力以及与其他系统的互操作性，导致延迟和人工干预。

• Lack of Transparency: The opacity of the cross-border payment process can contribute to inefficiencies. Limited visibility into transaction status, processing times, and associated fees can make it difficult for businesses to track and reconcile payments, leading to delays and administrative overhead.
  缺乏透明度：跨境支付流程的不透明可能导致效率低下。对交易状态、处理时间和相关费用的可见性有限可能会使企业难以跟踪和核对付款，从而导致延迟和管理开销。

• High Costs: Cross-border payments often incur high transaction fees, exchange rate markups, and intermediary charges.
  成本高：跨境支付往往会产生高昂的交易费用、汇率加价和中介费用。

It’s not uncommon for cross-border payments to take up to 5 business days to settle and cost on average 6.25%. Despite these challenges, the market size for B2B cross-border payments is massive, and it only continues to grow. FXC Intelligence estimates the total market size of B2B cross-border payments was $39T in 2023 and is projected to grow 43% to $53T by 2030.
跨境支付需要长达 5 个工作日才能完成结算且平均费用为 6.25% 的情况并不少见。尽管面临这些挑战，B2B 跨境支付的市场规模仍然巨大，而且只会持续增长。 FXC Intelligence估计，2023 年 B2B 跨境支付的总市场规模为 39T 美元，预计到 2030 年将增长 43%，达到 53T 美元。

It's clear that real-time settlement is critically needed and a globally unified payments standard does not exist yet. There is a solution that is accessible to all and can move value around the world instantly and cheaply—blockchains.
显然，实时结算是迫切需要的，而全球统一的支付标准尚不存在。有一种解决方案可供所有人使用，并且可以在全球范围内即时且廉价地转移价值——区块链。

The Adoption of Crypto Payments
加密支付的采用

Stablecoin-enabled payments offer the ideal solution to the challenges that currently exist in areas like cross-border payments, and stablecoins are experiencing secular growth across the globe. Aggregate stablecoin supply as of May 2024 is approximately $161B. USDT and USDC represent the #3 and #6 cryptoasset by market cap respectively. While together they account for ~6% of the total crypto market cap, they represent ~60% of onchain transaction value.
支持稳定币的支付为跨境支付等领域目前存在的挑战提供了理想的解决方案，并且稳定币正在全球范围内经历长期增长。截至 2024 年 5 月，稳定币总供应量约为 $161B 。 USDT 和 USDC 分别代表市值排名第三和第六的加密资产。虽然它们合计约占加密货币总市值的 6%，但也代表了链上交易价值的 60% 左右。

Looking back to our cross-border payments example, the simplified flow of funds offered by blockchain rails provides an elegant solution to the complexities that exist in the status quo:
回顾我们的跨境支付示例，区块链轨道提供的简化资金流为现状中存在的复杂性提供了一个优雅的解决方案：

• Near Instantaneous Settlement: Compared to most traditional financial payment methods that take days to settle, blockchain rails can settle transactions near instantaneously globally.
  近乎即时的结算：与大多数需要数天才能结算的传统金融支付方式相比，区块链rails可以在全球范围内近乎即时地结算交易。

• Lower Costs: Due to the elimination of various intermediaries and superior technology infrastructure, crypto enabled payments can offer meaningfully lower costs compared to incumbent offerings.
  降低成本：由于消除了各种中介机构和卓越的技术基础设施，与现有产品相比，加密支付可以显着降低成本。

• Higher Visibility: Blockchains offer much greater levels of visibility as it relates to tracking fund movements and alleviating the administrative overhead of reconciliations.
  更高的可见性：区块链提供了更高水平的可见性，因为它涉及跟踪资金流动和减轻对账的管理开销。

• Global Standard: Blockchains provide a “high speed rail” that anyone with an internet connection can readily access.
  全球标准：区块链提供了一条“高速铁路”，任何有互联网连接的人都可以轻松访问。

By utilizing stablecoin rails, payments can be radically simplified in terms of the number of intermediaries involved. As a result, there is real-time visibility into fund movements, much faster settlement times, and significantly lower costs compared to traditional payment methods.
通过利用稳定币轨道，支付可以从涉及的中介机构数量方面得到极大简化。因此，与传统支付方式相比，可以实时了解资金动向，结算时间更快，成本也显着降低。

Crypto Payments Stack Overview
加密支付堆栈概述

As we look at the market for crypto-enabled payments, there are four primary layers to the stack:
当我们审视加密支付市场时，堆栈有四个主要层：

Settlement Layer  沉降层

The underlying blockchain infrastructures that settle transactions. Layer1 blockchains like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as general purpose Layer2 environments like Optimism and Arbitrum, are all in the business of selling blockspace to the market. They compete across a number of vectors including speed, cost, scalability, security, distribution, etc. We expect the payments use case to be a substantial consumer of blockspace over time.
结算交易的底层区块链基础设施。像比特币、以太坊和 Solana 这样的 Layer1 区块链，以及像 Optimism 和 Arbitrum 这样的通用 Layer2 环境，都是在向市场出售区块空间。他们在多个方面进行竞争，包括速度、成本、可扩展性、安全性、分发等。我们预计随着时间的推移，支付用例将成为区块空间的大量消费者。

Asset Issuers  资产发行人

Asset issuers are entities responsible for creating, maintaining, and redeeming stablecoins, a type of cryptoasset designed to maintain a stable value relative to a reference asset or basket of assets, most typically the US dollar. Stablecoin issuers typically have balance sheet driven business models analogous to banks where they take in customer deposits and invest them into higher yielding assets like US treasuries and then issue stablecoins as liabilities, profiting from the spread or net interest margin.
资产发行人是负责创建、维护和赎回稳定币的实体，稳定币是一种加密资产，旨在保持相对于参考资产或一篮子资产（最典型的是美元）的稳定价值。稳定币发行人通常采用资产负债表驱动的业务模式，类似于银行，他们吸收客户存款并将其投资于美国国债等收益率较高的资产，然后发行稳定币作为负债，从利差或净息差中获利。

On/Off-Ramps  上/下坡道

On/Off-ramp providers play a critical role in enhancing the usability and adoption of stablecoins as a primary mechanism for financial transactions. At a fundamental level they serve as the technology layer that stitches together stablecoins on blockchains to fiat rails and bank accounts. Their business models tend to be flow driven and capture a small take rate on the amount of dollars that flow through their platforms.
入口/出口提供商在提高稳定币作为金融交易主要机制的可用性和采用方面发挥着关键作用。从根本上讲，它们充当技术层，将区块链上的稳定币与法定轨道和银行账户缝合在一起。他们的商业模式往往是流量驱动的，并从流经其平台的美元金额中获取少量的收益。

Interfaces / Applications
接口/应用

Front-end Applications are ultimately the customer-facing software of the crypto payments stack that provide the user interface for crypto-enabled payments and utilize the other parts of the stack to enable such transactions. Their business models vary but tend to be some combination of a platform fee plus some flow driven fees on volumes through their front-ends.
前端应用程序最终是加密支付堆栈中面向客户的软件，它为加密支付提供用户界面，并利用堆栈的其他部分来实现此类交易。他们的商业模式各不相同，但往往是平台费用加上一些流量驱动的前端交易量费用的组合。

Emerging Trends Across the Crypto Payments Landscape
加密支付领域的新兴趋势

There are a number of trends that we’re excited about at the intersection of crypto and payments:
我们对加密货币和支付的交叉点感到兴奋的许多趋势：

Cross-Border Payments is the First Battleground
跨境支付是第一战场

As described above, cross-border transactions are routinely the most complex, inefficient, and expensive with numerous intermediaries extracting rents along the way. It is maybe unsurprising then that this is where we are seeing the most organic uptake from the market for alternative, blockchain-based payment solutions. Providers who are enabling both B2B payments (paying vendors and employees, corporate treasury management, etc.) and remittance use cases are seeing strong traction in the market.
如上所述，跨境交易通常是最复杂、效率低下且成本最高的，中间有大量中介机构在沿途收取租金。因此，我们看到市场对基于区块链的替代支付解决方案的有机吸收最多，这也许并不奇怪。支持 B2B 支付（向供应商和员工付款、企业财务管理等）和汇款用例的提供商在市场上获得了强大的吸引力。

We view cross-border payments similar to logistics, where the “last mile” (the on and off-ramps between fiat<>crypto) is especially challenging to navigate. This is where businesses like Layer2 Financial* are providing real value as they take on the heavy lifting of integrating with various crypto and fiat partners on the back-end (blockchains, custodians, exchanges/liquidity providers, banks, traditional payment rails, etc.) and provide a seamless and compliant experience for their customers. Layer2 also helps facilitate the highest speed / lowest cost route for transactions and is able to settle the full lifecycle of a cross-border payment using crypto rails in as fast as ~90 minutes—up to 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than existing solutions.
我们认为跨境支付类似于物流，其中“最后一英里”（fiat<>crypto 之间的入口和出口）尤其难以导航。这就是像Layer2 Financial * 这样的企业提供真正价值的地方，因为它们承担着与后端各种加密货币和法定合作伙伴（区块链、托管人、交易所/流动性提供商、银行、传统支付轨道等）集成的重任。 ）并为其客户提供无缝且合规的体验。 Layer2 还有助于实现最高速度/最低成本的交易路线，并能够使用加密货币轨道在最快约 90 分钟内解决跨境支付的整个生命周期，比现有解决方案快 1-2 个数量级。

Given the cost and efficiency gains, we are seeing uptake across all geographies and end customers, crypto-natives and traditional businesses alike. There is a particular demand in regions with less stable fiat currencies and poor access to USD. Africa and Latin America have been hot beds of entrepreneurial activity for these reasons. Mural*, for example, has seen tremendous success helping customers facilitate vendor and developer contractor payouts between US and LatAm.
考虑到成本和效率的提高，我们看到所有地区和最终客户、加密货币本地人和传统企业都在采用这种技术。法定货币不太稳定且难以获得美元的地区存在特殊需求。由于这些原因，非洲和拉丁美洲一直是创业活动的温床。例如， Mural * 在帮助客户促进美国和拉丁美洲之间的供应商和开发商承包商付款方面取得了巨大成功。

Early-Innings of Supporting Payment-Grade Infrastructure
支持支付级基础设施的早期阶段

Most of the market infrastructure surrounding the crypto ecosystem (e.g., custody platforms, key management systems, liquidity venues) was built primarily for retail trading as the main use case. This has matured over the years to include more enterprise/institutional-grade software and services, but generally the infrastructure was not built to support the real-time nature and scale of payments.
围绕加密生态系统的大多数市场基础设施（例如托管平台、密钥管理系统、流动性场所）主要是为零售交易作为主要用例而构建的。多年来，这种技术已经成熟，包括更多的企业/机构级软件和服务，但通常基础设施并不是为了支持支付的实时性和规模而构建的。

We are seeing opportunities for new entrants and incumbent providers to launch/expand their offerings to capture this emerging use case. For example, new custody/key management systems like Turnkey* have improved transaction signing by ~2 orders of magnitude, enabling 50-100ms signing latency for millions of wallets. They also enable companies to design policies around asset operations to enhance automation and process scalability.
我们看到新进入者和现有提供商有机会推出/扩展他们的产品以捕捉这一新兴用例。例如， Turnkey * 等新的托管/密钥管理系统将交易签名提高了约 2 个数量级，为数百万个钱包实现了 50-100 毫秒的签名延迟。它们还使公司能够围绕资产运营设计策略，以增强自动化和流程可扩展性。

Liquidity partners are also retooling their products to offer more frequent (ideally real-time) settlement capabilities for on/off-ramp providers. More automation is coming across the board, which will provide an even more superior experience for end users.
流动性合作伙伴也在重组他们的产品，为入口/出口提供商提供更频繁（最好是实时）的结算功能。更多的自动化正在全面普及，这将为最终用户提供更卓越的体验。

Onchain Yield Will Change the Game
链上收益率将改变游戏规则

Issuing digital fiat currency on a blockchain is the first instantiation of a much broader trend toward tokenization. As mentioned above, the significant growth we’ve seen in stablecoin adoption is further underscored by the fact that holders of these assets have not been able to earn yield on their holdings (relative to 4-5% on US Treasuries).
在区块链上发行数字法定货币是更广泛的代币化趋势的第一个实例。如上所述，我们看到稳定币采用率显着增长，这一事实进一步强调了这些资产的持有者无法从其持有的资产中赚取收益（相对于美国国债的 4-5%）。

Tether and USDC dominate the current stablecoin landscape today, accounting for 90%+ of the ~$160B stablecoin market. We have more recently seen a spectrum of new entrants, offering onchain yields in different form factors. Stablecoin issuers like Agora*, Mountain, and Midas are offering dollar-pegged, yield-generating assets/programs to offer yield/rewards to holders. We have also seen a host of tokenized US Treasury products from the likes of BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Hashnote, and Superstate* be created to offer yield onchain. Lastly, we are seeing creative tokenized structured products like Ethena* offer a synthetic dollar-pegged asset that uses the ETH basis trade to offer yield onchain.
Tether 和 USDC 在当今的稳定币格局中占据主导地位，占约160B 美元稳定币市场的 90% 以上。最近，我们看到了一系列新进入者，以不同的形式提供链上收益。 Agora *、Mountain 和 Midas 等稳定币发行人正在提供与美元挂钩的、产生收益的资产/计划，为持有者提供收益/奖励。我们还看到贝莱德、富兰克林邓普顿、Hashnote 和Superstate等公司创建了许多代币化的美国国债产品，以提供链上收益。最后，我们看到像Ethena * 这样的创造性代币化结构产品提供了一种与美元挂钩的合成资产，该资产使用 ETH 基础交易来提供链上收益。

We expect these new assets to be massive catalysts in the expansion of onchain finance broadly speaking. A marketplace of yield-bearing assets is being born and we see a future where users can leverage specific instruments depending on the use case, their risk/reward preferences, and the geographies they’re operating in. This could have a transformational effect on financial services across the globe.
从广义上讲，我们预计这些新资产将成为链上金融扩张的巨大催化剂。一个收益资产市场正在诞生，我们看到未来用户可以根据用例、风险/回报偏好以及运营所在地区利用特定工具。这可能会对金融产生变革性影响服务遍及全球。

Early Signs of More Stablecoin Utility
稳定币实用性增强的早期迹象

While stablecoins have clear product-market fit across a variety of use cases, non-crypto-natives (consumers and businesses) generally operate their day-to-day lives in the fiat world. Businesses may be comfortable leveraging stablecoins and blockchain rails to execute cross-border payments, for example, but most companies today prefer to hold and accept fiat.
虽然稳定币在各种用例中具有明确的产品市场契合度，但非加密货币本地人（消费者和企业）通常在法定世界中经营日常生活。例如，企业可能愿意利用稳定币和区块链轨道来执行跨境支付，但如今大多数公司更愿意持有和接受法定货币。

One blocker has been the ability for businesses to accept stablecoin payments. Stripe’s recent announcement to support the acceptance of stablecoins for their merchant customers is not only important validation, but also a massive shift in the status quo. It could give consumers more choice in terms of payment options and get businesses more comfortable accepting, holding, and transacting with digital assets.
阻碍之一是企业接受稳定币支付的能力。 Stripe 最近宣布支持其商业客户接受稳定币，这不仅是重要的验证，也是现状的巨大转变。它可以为消费者提供更多的支付选择，让企业更轻松地接受、持有和交易数字资产。

Another blocker has been the ability to spend stablecoins. Visa’s expansion of stablecoin settlement capabilities supports tighter interoperability between blockchains and card networks. As an example, we’re seeing stablecoin-backed card products, which allow cardholders to spend their stablecoins everywhere that accepts Visa cards, experience impressive organic demand in the market.
另一个障碍是使用稳定币的能力。 Visa 稳定币结算能力的扩展支持区块链和卡网络之间更紧密的互操作性。举个例子，我们看到稳定币支持的卡产品允许持卡人在接受 Visa 卡的任何地方使用稳定币，市场上的有机需求令人印象深刻。

As stablecoins become more widely accepted and spendable across traditional payment methods, the more we expect these digital assets will become ubiquitous alongside their non-digital counterparts.
随着稳定币在传统支付方式中越来越被广泛接受和使用，我们越发期望这些数字资产将与非数字资产一起变得无处不在。

Conclusion 结论

Blockchain-based payments is one of the most important and exciting trends we see at the intersection of crypto and financial services. We believe blockchains will be used to settle a growing number of financial transactions and payments are poised to be a key use case and a primary consumer of blockspace going forward. If you are starting/building a company in this space, we’d love to hear from you. Say hi @MG_GLXY on Telegram or @mgiampapa1 on X.
基于区块链的支付是我们在加密货币和金融服务的交叉领域看到的最重要和最令人兴奋的趋势之一。我们相信区块链将用于解决越来越多的金融交易，而支付将成为未来区块空间的关键用例和主要消费者。如果您正在这个领域创办/建立一家公司，我们很乐意听取您的意见。在 Telegram 上打招呼@MG_GLXY 或在 X 上打招呼@mgiampapa1。

* Represents Galaxy Ventures portfolio company.
* 代表 Galaxy Ventures 投资组合公司。