Automotive Outlook Report 2025
汽车展望报告 2025
分析 2024 年 8 月 28 日
Five Expectations for the Automotive Markets in 2025
《2025 年汽车市场五大期待》
1. Demand for battery electric vehicles will not stagnate, with and demand set for growth
1. 电池电动汽车的需求不会停滞，预计将迎来增长。
To date, 2024 has seen the rapid growth phase of battery vehicle demand come to an end in many markets. However, it would be a mistake to assume that this means that the market will stagnate or even reverse. The growth will not be as fast as some had predicted—but TechInsights still sees a very strong outlook for silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) power devices used in battery electric vehicle drivetrains in 2025. As carmakers seek greater powertrain efficiencies, these will see a combined dollar growth of around 60% in 2025—substantially faster than the conventional silicon devices that they are replacing.
截至目前，2024 年许多市场的电池电动汽车需求快速增长阶段已经结束。然而，认为这意味着市场将停滞甚至逆转是错误的。增长速度不会像一些人预测的那样快——但 TechInsights 仍然看好 2025 年用于电池电动汽车驱动系统的碳化硅（SiC）和氮化镓（GaN）功率器件的前景。随着汽车制造商寻求更高的动力系统效率，这些器件在 2025 年的总美元增长率将达到约 60%，这比它们所取代的传统硅器件的增长速度要快得多。
2. Level 2 vehicle automation will break into the mainstream, driving processor and memory demand
2. 第二级车辆自动化将进入主流市场，推动处理器和内存需求增长
Level 2 (L2) vehicle automation is defined as where the vehicle can provide both steering and brake/acceleration support to the driver on a continual basis, but the driver remains legally in control and must constantly supervise the automation system. Such features used to be the preserve of luxury vehicles or automation-focused brands such as Tesla. TechInsights sees L2 as now very much the “sweet spot” for new models at mainstream price points. In 2025, TechInsights expects almost as many L2 vehicles to be produced as L0. This push to L2 functionality in the mainstream will help drive revenues for processors and memory devices used in advanced safety and vehicle automation features to over $10 billion for the
二级（L2）车辆自动化是指车辆能够持续提供转向和制动/加速支持给驾驶员，但驾驶员仍然在法律上保持控制权，并必须不断监督自动化系统。此类功能过去一直是豪华车或以自动化为重点的品牌，如特斯拉的专属。TechInsights 认为，L2 现在已成为主流车型价格点的“甜蜜点”。到 2025 年，TechInsights 预计 L2 车辆的生产量将与 L0 相当。这种在主流车型中推动 L2 功能的发展将有助于推动用于高级安全和车辆自动化功能的处理器和存储设备收入超过 100 亿美元。
first time. 第一次。
3. One-third of Chinese-manufactured vehicles will use advanced E/E architectures, driving the software-defined vehicle
三分之一的中国制造汽车将采用先进的电子/电气架构，推动软件定义汽车的发展。
Vehicle electrical/electronic (E/E) architectures are changing from a paradigm where each single function has its own dedicated control unit to a more modern approach where functions are integrated into a smaller number of more powerful units. In 2025, around one-third of all Chinese-produced vehicles will use at least one domain controller, zonal controller, or high-performance central compute unit. This is well ahead of the global average, which will lag by around 10 percentage points. This gap is indicative of the faster transition in China to new electrified vehicle platforms as well as a less conservative approach to change, and the risk that comes with it. These new vehicle architectures are a key enabler of the so-called software-defined vehicle. The vision of the software-defined vehicle is to make the vehicle more flexible and upgradable, to use and share data, and to always be connected to the cloud. This allows continuous improvement of features and functions, with the aim of enabling a similarly continuous subscription revenue flow from consumers. In terms of the hardware necessary to enable this, Chinese carmakers are leading the way in deployment.
车辆电气/电子（E/E）架构正从每个单一功能拥有独立控制单元的范式转变为更现代的方法，即功能集成到更少但更强大的单元中。到 2025 年，大约三分之一的国产车辆将至少使用一个域控制器、区域控制器或高性能中央计算单元。这比全球平均水平提前了大约 10 个百分点。这一差距表明，中国向新的电动化平台转型的速度更快，以及对待变革的较少保守态度和随之而来的风险。这些新的车辆架构是所谓软件定义汽车的关键推动力。软件定义汽车的愿景是使汽车更加灵活和可升级，使用和共享数据，并始终与云连接。这允许持续改进功能和功能，旨在实现消费者持续订阅收入流的同样持续增长。在实现这一目标的硬件方面，中国汽车制造商正走在前列。
4. Automotive 5G chipset demand will overtake 4G
4. 汽车领域 5G 芯片需求将超越 4G
Suppliers to the infotainment market are seeing rapid changes as vehicle architecture change and wider consumer trends impact the sector. However, there remain many excellent growth opportunities, with chipsets to enable 5G, USB-C connectivity, and capacitive touch sensors being among the best. The combined value of these devices will approach $900 million in 2025, up over 50% from 2024. The flip side of this is an expected decline in revenues from 4G chipsets, which will fall behind those of 5G for the first time.
供应商在车载娱乐市场正面临快速变化，随着车辆架构的改变和更广泛的消费者趋势对该行业的影响。然而，仍有许多优秀的发展机遇，其中 5G 芯片组、USB-C 连接和电容式触摸传感器被认为是最好的。这些设备的总价值预计将在 2025 年接近 9 亿美元，比 2024 年增长超过 50%。另一方面，预计 4G 芯片组的收入将出现下滑，首次落后于 5G 芯片组。
5. Semiconductor supplier revenues will continue to be impacted by inventory wind down
5. 半导体供应商的收入将继续受到库存削减的影响
During the pandemic, shortages and imbalances led to guaranteed purchase agreements between semiconductor suppliers and customers. This “take or pay” type of situation, along with the desire for higher levels of safety stock, caused automotive semiconductor inventory to build up in the downstream channels in 2022 and 2023. As these agreements have been expiring, companies are now utilizing excess semiconductor inventory in the channel for vehicle production. This has resulted in most automotive semiconductor suppliers posting lower sales in the first half 2024, with guidance toward a flat to barely positive second half of 2024. This is despite theoretical underlying growth, based on rising semiconductor content per vehicle. TechInsights expects this situation to persist into 2025, with overall revenues continuing to lag the underlying vehicle-based growth. This will not be across the board, and there is a possible undersupply situation in the second half of the year for certain automotive device types based on capacity at semiconductor suppliers. Many firms have cut capex this year due to lower revenues to keep margins as attractive to investors as possible.
在疫情期间，短缺和失衡导致了半导体供应商与客户之间的保证购买协议。这种“买或付”的情况，加上对更高安全库存水平的渴望，导致 2022 年和 2023 年汽车半导体库存在大下游渠道中积聚。随着这些协议的到期，公司现在正在利用渠道中过剩的半导体库存进行车辆生产。这导致大多数汽车半导体供应商在 2024 年上半年销售额下降，预计下半年将持平或略有增长。尽管基于每辆汽车半导体含量上升的理论基础存在增长，但这种情况预计将持续到 2025 年，整体收入将继续落后于基于车辆的增长。这不会是普遍现象，并且根据半导体供应商的产能，某些汽车设备类型在下半年可能出现供应不足的情况。许多公司今年由于收入下降而削减了资本支出，以尽可能保持对投资者的吸引力。
Market Outlook 市场展望
Overall, the automotive semiconductor market outlook for 2025, based upon the devices consumed by anticipated light-vehicle production, is for growth of around 12%, to over $85 billion. However, as already noted, semiconductor supplier revenues will lag this growth as the supply chain works through built-up excess inventory.
总体而言，基于预期轻型汽车产量所消耗的设备，2025 年汽车半导体市场的展望是增长约 12%，达到 850 亿美元以上。然而，正如之前所述，由于供应链正在消化积压的过剩库存，半导体供应商的收入增长将落后于这一增长。
Underlying vehicle production growth is now weak, and most growth in semiconductor demand is now coming from increased content per vehicle, rather than more vehicles. This content-per-vehicle growth is expected to be 11% in 2025.
车辆生产增长的基础现在较弱，半导体需求的增长主要来自于每辆车的含量增加，而不是车辆数量的增加。预计这种每辆车含量的增长在 2025 年将达到 11%。
Demand based on production in countries such as India and Thailand will see some of the strongest growth in 2025. This is based on rapid content growth in India, as vehicles produced there catch up with global norms. In Thailand, the growth is more vehicle production based, as Chinese automakers ramp up.
information
2025 年，印度和泰国等国的生产需求将实现强劲增长。这基于印度内容的快速增长，因为那里生产的汽车正在追赶全球标准。在泰国，增长更多是基于汽车生产，随着中国汽车制造商的扩大规模。
Longer term, the prospects for automotive semiconductor demand remain favorable with the ongoing electrification of the vehicle (despite recent setbacks), increased deployment of advanced safety and automated driving features, and the move to new vehicle architectures using powerful centralized controllers.
长期来看，汽车半导体需求的前景依然乐观，尽管近期遭遇挫折，但随着车辆电气化的持续进行、高级安全和自动驾驶功能的推广，以及采用强大集中控制器的全新车辆架构的推进。
From2023 to 2028, automotive semiconductor demand based upon light-vehicle production is thus expected to grow from $68 to $114 billion, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%.
从 2023 年到 2028 年，基于轻型汽车生产的汽车半导体需求预计将从 680 亿美元增长到 1140 亿美元，年复合增长率（CAGR）为 11%。
Selected winners and losers in the automotive semiconductor market, based on the dollar CAGR from 2023 to 2028, are shown in Table 1.
根据 2023 年至 2028 年的美元复合年增长率（CAGR），表 1 展示了汽车半导体市场的胜者与败者。
Table 1: Automotive Semiconductor CAGR 2023 to 2028 by Regions, Applications, and Device Types
表 1：2023 年至 2028 年各地区、应用和设备类型的汽车半导体复合年增长率
Technical Outlook 技术展望
Power Semiconductor Technology Roadmap
功率半导体技术路线图
The main selection criteria for technology selection largely remain the same as they are inherent to the material properties: silicon carbide (SiC) for high power density, high temperature, hard switching, and high voltage applications, gallium nitride (GaN) for high power density, high temperature, mid- to low-voltage, and high-speed applications, while silicon (Si) can provide cost savings for applications that do not call for the above requirements. Within each technology, we expect to see continual improvements in key device metrics such as lower specific on-resistance, total gate charge, and reduced capacitances for improved power density and switching efficiency. We may see some device structural changes from manufacturers to achieve this, such as adopting a trench design in manufacturers that are currently employing planar structures.
技术选型的关键标准在很大程度上仍然与材料特性相关：碳化硅（SiC）适用于高功率密度、高温、硬开关和高电压应用；氮化镓（GaN）适用于高功率密度、高温、中低压和高速应用；而硅（Si）则可以降低成本，适用于不要求上述特性的应用。在每种技术内部，我们预计关键设备指标将持续改进，例如降低导通电阻、总栅极电荷和减少电容，以提升功率密度和开关效率。制造商可能会通过采用沟槽设计等结构变化来实现这一点，以目前采用平面结构的制造商为例。
Driven by the expansion of current applications, such as the recent shift of electric vehicles (EVs) to 800 V architecture and datacenters moving to 48 V power feed, we can see additional expansions of operating voltage ranges for the different device technologies from manufacturers. Infineon, for example, has just released the industry’s first 400 V SiC MOSFET, while GaN has been continually aiming for higher breakdown voltages towards the 900 V and 1200 V range. A space to watch for is the roll out of Power Integrations 1250 V GaN switcher IC. Alternative GaN wafer and device structures have also been under development, such as Transphorm’s 1200 V GaN-on-sapphire structure, although the fate of this technology is somewhat uncertain following the Renesas’ acquisition of Transphorm, while the realization vertical GaN devices to access even higher breakdown voltage may still have a farther time horizon.
由当前应用的扩展推动，例如电动汽车（EV）转向 800 伏架构以及数据中心转向 48 伏电源供应，我们可以看到不同设备技术的运行电压范围正在进一步扩大。例如，英飞凌刚刚发布了业界首款 400 伏碳化硅 MOSFET，而氮化镓（GaN）一直在追求更高的击穿电压，目标是 900 伏和 1200 伏范围。值得关注的是 Power Integrations 即将推出的 1250 伏 GaN 开关 IC。此外，还在开发替代的 GaN 晶圆和器件结构，如 Transphorm 的 1200 伏 GaN-on-sapphire 结构，但鉴于瑞萨电子收购了 Transphorm，这项技术的命运尚不明朗，而实现垂直 GaN 器件以获得更高的击穿电压可能还需要更长的时间。
In addition to expanding the voltage range, we also expect to see expanded capabilities in existing voltage classes. For example, in recent years we have also seen the introduction of bi-directional switching (BDS) GaN devices in the 40 V class. Infineon has recently announced 650 V and 850 V BDS GaN devices, which will be the industry’s firsts. Conventionally, GaN HEMTs and power devices in general use an extended drain to manage the high electric field. However, this asymmetric design makes the device unsuited for bi-directional switching. Innovations in the device layout and process will be required to achieve higher-voltage BDS capabilities in GaN HEMTs.
除了扩展电压范围之外，我们还期待在现有电压类别中看到能力的扩展。例如，近年来我们也看到了 40 V 类中双向切换（BDS）氮化镓（GaN）器件的引入。英飞凌最近宣布了 650 V 和 850 V 的 BDS GaN 器件，这将是行业首创。传统上，氮化镓 HEMTs 和通用功率器件使用扩展漏极来管理高电场。然而，这种不对称设计使得器件不适合双向切换。为了在 GaN HEMTs 中实现更高电压的 BDS 能力，需要在器件布局和工艺上进行创新。
To accommodate the rising demand of power electronics in the high-volume key market selectors, we expect to see more manufacturers shift to larger wafer sizes in the production: SiC from 150 mm wafers to 200 mm wafers, and we are starting to see GaN fabrication to move from 200 mm wafers towards 300 mm wafers.
为了满足高容量关键市场选择器对功率电子产品的日益增长的需求，我们预计将看到更多制造商在生产中转向更大的晶圆尺寸：从 150 毫米晶圆转向 200 毫米晶圆的碳化硅，以及我们开始看到氮化镓的制造正从 200 毫米晶圆向 300 毫米晶圆过渡。
Image Sensor Technology Roadmap
图像传感器技术路线图
The 2Q2024 update of the image sensor technology roadmap highlights technology trends and uses the analysis of these for the pixel and image signal processing (ISP) layers to speculates on the direction of the product development. The general theme from the analysis is that for the next few years that marketing concerns will dominate over technology evolution in image sensor specifications.
2024 年第二季度图像传感器技术路线图更新突出了技术趋势，并利用对这些趋势的分析来推测产品开发的走向。分析的一般主题是，在未来几年，市场营销的考虑将主导图像传感器规格的技术演变。
Logic Technology Roadmap 逻辑技术路线图
2025 will see the next major technology inflection point heralding the end of FinFET transistor scaling by the three leading edge foundries, beginning the next major technology innovation that enables continued scaling of logic technology. FinFET technology optimization has gone as far as it can go, and further scaling requires a paradigm shift in transistor architecture, enabled by the GAAFET (Gate All Around Field Effect Transistor). This allows smaller, lower power designs without compromising performance. This transition is as important as the planar FET transition to FinFET was a decade earlier.
2025 年将迎来下一个重大技术拐点，届时三大领先边缘晶圆代工厂将结束 FinFET 晶体管尺寸缩放，开启新一轮重大技术创新，以实现逻辑技术的持续缩放。FinFET 技术的优化已经达到了极限，进一步的缩放需要晶体管架构的范式转变，这得益于 GAAFET（全围栅场效应晶体管）。这允许设计更小、功耗更低，同时不牺牲性能。这次转型的重要性与十年前平面 FET 向 FinFET 的转型一样重要。
In another innovation expected to be deployed in 2025, Intel is anticipated to be the first player to apply the Backside Power Delivery Network (BSPDN) in mass production. There is also the possibility of seeing technology advances from UMC while SMIC, will begin production of 5 nm FinFET technology.
在 2025 年预期部署的另一项创新中，英特尔预计将成为首个在量产中应用背面电源传输网络（BSPDN）的企业。同时，也有望看到联电的技术进步，而中芯国际将开始生产 5 纳米 FinFET 技术。
We will see further adoption of Chiplet and other Advanced Packaging technology that will help manage the rapidly increasing manufacturing cost of High Performance chipsets. TechInsights will be tracking how the major players evolve their architecture in the development direction of these high performance logic products being used in datacenter applications.
我们将看到 Chiplet 和其他先进封装技术的进一步应用，这些技术将有助于管理高性能芯片组快速增长的制造成本。TechInsights 将跟踪主要厂商如何演进其架构，以适应这些高性能逻辑产品在数据中心应用中的开发方向。
Advanced Packaging Roadmap
高级包装路线图
The Advanced Packaging Technology Roadmap provides a view of key product offerings from leading foundries and OSATs. In addition to the technology insertion timelines, the roadmap also provides broader contextual understanding of significant developments and trends in advanced packaging, including the chiplet design strategy, interconnect pitch scaling, and 2.5D interposer scaling.
《先进封装技术路线图》展示了领先晶圆厂和 OSATs 的关键产品方案。除了技术集成时间表，该路线图还提供了对先进封装领域重大发展和趋势的更广泛背景理解，包括芯片级设计策略、互连间距缩小和 2.5D 基板扩展。
DRAM DRAM 动态随机存取存储器
DRAM chips are used for many applications such as DDR5, LPDDR5 or 5X, GDDR6 or GDDR6X, HBM2E/HBM3/HBM3E, and Low Latency DRAM (LLDRAM) components. Recently, the industry introduced processing-in-memory (PIM) technology for PIM-enabled High Bandwidth Memory such as Aquabolt-XL from Samsung, and SK hynix has developed GDDR6-AiM (Accelerator in Memory) which reduces data movement between memory and the CPU or GPU. Further, CXL-PNM (Compute Express Link-Processing-near-Memory) is another type of high-performance DRAM application.
DRAM 芯片被广泛应用于 DDR5、LPDDR5 或 5X、GDDR6 或 GDDR6X、HBM2E/HBM3/HBM3E 以及低延迟 DRAM（LLDRAM）组件。最近，业界推出了内存处理（PIM）技术，用于支持 PIM 功能的宽带内存，例如三星的 Aquabolt-XL，SK hynix 开发了 GDDR6-AiM（内存中的加速器），这减少了内存与 CPU 或 GPU 之间的数据移动。此外，CXL-PNM（计算表达式链-处理-近内存）是另一种高性能 DRAM 应用。
Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix have already released D1a and D1b cell-designed commercial products DDR5, LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X on the market, Samsung and SK hynix D1b 12nm-class DRAM cell designs have the smallest cell size for the 5th generation of the 10nm-class DRAM. Now, Samsung and SK hynix lead the EUV lithography technology on DRAM devices, while Micron is, still, keeping the ArF and ArFi -based DPT and QPT patterning technology up to their 1α and 1β DRAM generation. Micron’s 1γ DRAM generation will be the first EUVL-applied device from Micron, developed by Hiroshima R&D in Japan. SK hynix follows Samsung’s EUVL strategy, which means they adopted EUVL for the D1a and D1b generations, especially for the SC2 step, which is the same one as Samsung’s D1z generation, and will expand the EUVL steps in the next generations. Samsung already expanded EUVL technology, from one mask for D1z to 5 or more masks for the D1a and D1b generations.
三星、美光和 SK 海力士已经推出了 D1a 和 D1b 代际的商用产品 DDR5、LPDDR4X、LPDDR5 和 LPDDR5X，其中三星和 SK 海力士的 D1b 代际 12 纳米级 DRAM 单元设计在第五代 10 纳米级 DRAM 中拥有最小的单元尺寸。现在，三星和 SK 海力士在 DRAM 设备上领先于 EUV 光刻技术，而美光仍然在保持基于 ArF 和 ArFi 的 DPT 和 QPT 光刻技术，用于其 1α和 1β代际 DRAM。美光的 1γ代际 DRAM 将是美光首次应用 EUVL 技术的设备，由日本广岛研发中心开发。SK 海力士遵循三星的 EUVL 战略，这意味着它们为 D1a 和 D1b 代际采用了 EUVL 技术，特别是 SC2 步骤，与三星的 D1z 代际相同，并将扩展下一代的 EUVL 步骤。三星已经扩展了 EUVL 技术，从 D1z 代际的一个掩模扩展到 D1a 和 D1b 代际的 5 个或更多掩模。
When it comes to the HKMG process on the DRAM devices, Samsung adopted the peripheral HKMG structure and process on D1x GDDR6 4Gb and 8Gb chips first, and D1y DDR5 chips as well. However, Samsung D1a LPDDR5X devices used the conventional poly-Si peripheral gate structure instead of HKMG. Micron D1z graphic DRAMs such as D1z GDDR6 and D1z GDDR6X are examples of HKMG DRAM devices. Micron adopted HKMG for any type of DRAM device from the D1β generation. SK hynix D1y GDDR6 and D1a GDDR6 adopted HKMG as well. Recently released SK hynix D1b DDR5 (for example, H5CG48BHBD-X030) devices have the HKMG. Taiwan DRAM companies such as Nanya, Winbond, and PowerChip (PSMC) have 30-nm and 20nm-class DRAM products in the market.
当谈到 DRAM 设备上的 HKMG 工艺时，三星首先在 D1x GDDR6 4Gb 和 8Gb 芯片以及 D1y DDR5 芯片上采用了外围 HKMG 结构和工艺。然而，三星 D1a LPDDR5X 设备使用了传统的多晶硅外围栅极结构，而没有采用 HKMG。美光 D1z 图形 DRAM，如 D1z GDDR6 和 D1z GDDR6X，是 HKMG DRAM 设备的例子。美光从 D1β代开始，对任何类型的 DRAM 设备都采用了 HKMG。SK hynix 的 D1y GDDR6 和 D1a GDDR6 也采用了 HKMG。最近发布的 SK hynix D1b DDR5（例如，H5CG48BHBD-X030）设备具有 HKMG。台湾 DRAM 公司如南亚、华邦和力晶（PSMC）在市场上拥有 30nm 和 20nm 级的 DRAM 产品。
CXMT in China already released G3 DDR3L and LPDDR4X DRAM chips, and developing G4 and G5 generations for DDR5 applications. Early next year, D1c mass-products fabricated by major players will be released. And then, the last generation (D1d or D1δ nodes) of the 10nm-class DRAM devices will be followed in 2026 or 2027. Samsung may skip D1d generation. By the end of 2028, we expect DRAM to scale down to single-digit nanometer technology nodes such as 0a, 0b, and 0c or 0 α, 0 β, and 0 γ generations.
中国 CXMT 已发布 G3 DDR3L 和 LPDDR4X DRAM 芯片，并正在开发 G4 和 G5 代 DDR5 应用。明年年初，主要厂商生产的 D1c 大规模产品将发布。随后，10nm 级 DRAM 设备的最后一代（D1d 或 D1δ节点）将在 2026 年或 2027 年推出。三星可能会跳过 D1d 代。到 2028 年底，我们预计 DRAM 将缩小到单数纳米技术节点，如 0a、0b 和 0c 或 0α、0β和 0γ代。
Regarding 3D DRAM, Samsung has been developing both VS-CAT (Vertically Stacked Cell Array Transistor) and VCT (Vertical Channel Transistor, 4F2 type so-called) 3D DRAMs. SK hynix and Micron may focus more on the vertically stacked DRAMs now.
关于 3D DRAM，三星一直在开发 VS-CAT（垂直堆叠单元阵列晶体管）和 VCT（垂直沟道晶体管，4F2 型所谓）3D DRAM。SK 海力士和美光可能现在会更专注于垂直堆叠的 DRAM。
NAND
Samsung changed their single-deck to double-deck structure for V7, and adopted a 2D array-periphery design to COP (cell on the periphery) integration like other competitors. Samsung’s V8 236L 1 Tb TLC products is their second COP structure. This year, Samsung just released V9 286L (290-ish layered) under 300L. As such, Samsung has 286L V9 COP V-NAND now. In addition, Samsung added a 133L V6 Prime version for 990 EVO, V6P so-called, into 128L V6. The 133L is a single deck without a COP structure. The total gate number is 140 and the active wordline numbers increased from 128 to 133, the speed increased to 1,600 MT/s with the 2 planes with 2 sub-planes each on the 512Gb die. The next V10 will adopt hybrid bonding technology similar to KIOXIA 218L CBA and YMTC’s current Xtacking 3D NAND products.
三星将 V7 的单层结构改为双层结构，并采用了与其他竞争对手类似的 2D 阵列边缘设计进行 COP（边缘单元）集成。三星的 V8 236L 1 Tb TLC 产品是其第二个 COP 结构。今年，三星刚刚发布了 V9 286L（约 290 层）产品，低于 300 层。因此，三星现在拥有 286L V9 COP V-NAND。此外，三星还为 990 EVO 增加了 133L V6 Prime 版本，称为 V6P，将其纳入 128L V6。133L 是单层结构，没有 COP 结构。总栅极数为 140，活动字线数量从 128 增加到 133，速度提升至 1,600 MT/s，每个 512Gb 芯片上具有 2 个平面和每个平面 2 个子平面。下一个 V10 将采用类似于 KIOXIA 218L CBA 和 YMTC 当前 Xtacking 3D NAND 产品的混合键合技术。
KIOXIA and WDC keep BiCS structure, and most of the products found in the market are 112L (BiCS5) and 162L (BiCS6). The BiCS6 162L will likely not last long. KIOXIA skipped the BiCS 7th generation, instead, the BiCS 8th generation has 218 active WL layers and the following one will be developing with 284 WL layers (BiCS10). BiCS9 will be an updated version of Gen5 and Gen8 with a few more layers added. Both 218L and 284L 3D NAND devices will have the hybrid bonding technology using two wafers. The 284L may be skipped again if the 3xx layer development is progressed well.
KIOXIA 和 WDC 继续采用 BiCS 结构，市场上大部分产品都是 112 层（BiCS5）和 162 层（BiCS6）。BiCS6 162 层的产品可能不会持久。KIOXIA 跳过了 BiCS 第 7 代，而是直接推出了 BiCS 第 8 代，该代产品拥有 218 个活跃的存储层（WL），下一代的开发将使用 284 个 WL 层（BiCS10）。BiCS9 将是第 5 代和第 8 代的一个更新版本，并增加了几层。218 层和 284 层的 3D NAND 设备都将采用双晶圆的混合键合技术。如果 3xx 层的发展进展顺利，284 层的产品可能会再次被跳过。
Micron revealed 176L and 232L products to the market ahead of other competitors. Micron is now developing Gen7 which is 2yy under 300L like Samsung’s 286L. And then, they may jump into the 4xx-layer device without the 3xx-layer one. Solidigm 144L QLC NAND consists of three decks, which means each deck consists of 48 WL layers. The 192L QLC devices are now the major products in the market.. The next one will be 2xxL layered QLC, however, due to their uncertain NAND business plan directed from SK hynix now, their plan may be changed.
美光在竞争对手之前推出了 176L 和 232L 产品。美光目前正在开发 Gen7，其工艺节点低于 300L，类似于三星的 286L。然后，他们可能将直接跳到 4xx 层设备，而无需经过 3xx 层设备。Solidigm 的 144L QLC NAND 由三个层板组成，这意味着每个层板由 48 个字线层组成。目前市场上主要产品是 192L QLC 设备。下一个将是 2xx 层级的 QLC 设备，然而，由于来自 SK hynix 的 NAND 业务计划尚不确定，他们的计划可能会有所改变。
SK hynix continues the 4D PUC structure. SK hynix V7 176L and V8 238L 4D PUC volume products are widely used in the market now. The next V9 321-layer 4D PUC will be revealed in the market early next year, and 3yy-layer devices such as 370 or 380-ish layers under 400 layers may be followed.
SK 海力士继续采用 4D PUC 结构。SK 海力士 V7 176L 和 V8 238L 4D PUC 体积产品目前已在市场上广泛应用。下一代的 V9 321 层 4D PUC 将在明年年初亮相市场，而 3yy 层设备，如 370 层或 380 层左右的设备，可能在 400 层以下继续推出。
YMTC in China keeps a hybrid bonded structure with two wafers, Xtacking so-called. They skipped 176L and directly jumped into the 232L (Gen4). YMTC had TVs (test vehicles) and engineering samples with 192L and 198L internally before 232L development, however, they skipped them finally and directly moved to 232L. The next one, Gen5, will have more than 300 active WL layers with Xtacking4, however, due to the US ban on chips, they have a plan to focus more on expanding 128L QLC and 232L QLC devices recently released and developing multi-Xtacking technology as well for the future 3D NAND. In the meantime, some patent litigations are now underway against NAND competitors including Micron.
中国 YMTC 采用名为 Xtacking 的混合键合结构，由两片晶圆组成。他们跳过了 176L，直接进入了 232L（第四代）。在 232L 开发之前，YMTC 内部已有 192L 和 198L 的测试车辆和工程样品，但最终他们跳过了这些，直接转向 232L。下一个，第五代，将拥有超过 300 个活动层（Xtacking4），然而，由于美国对芯片的禁令，他们计划近期更加专注于扩展 128L QLC 和最近发布的 232L QLC 设备，同时也在开发多 Xtacking 技术，以备未来 3D NAND 之需。与此同时，一些针对 NAND 竞争对手（包括美光）的专利诉讼正在进行中。
MXIC has been providing their first 3D NAND generation to the market, for example, including a 48L 3D NAND chip for the Nintendo Switch2. MXIC has been developing the 2nd generation with 96L.
MXIC 已经向市场推出了他们的第一代 3D NAND 产品，例如，包括用于 Nintendo Switch2 的 48 层 3D NAND 芯片。MXIC 正在开发第二代 96 层 3D NAND 产品。
In two or three years, we may be able to see more than 500-layer 3D NAND products, or even more than 600 or 700-layered package solutions using more advanced and optimized hybrid bonding technology and hafnia ferroelectrics in five years. The cryogenic low-temperature HAR etcher will be needed for more than 3xx- or 4xx-layer 3D NAND process integration.
在两三年内，我们或许能看到超过 500 层的 3D NAND 产品，甚至可能在五年内出现超过 600 层或 700 层的封装解决方案，这得益于更先进和优化的混合键合技术和 hafnia 铁电材料。在 3xx 层或 4xx 层的 3D NAND 工艺集成中，将需要低温冷冻的 HAR 蚀刻机。
Emerging and Embedded Memory
新兴与嵌入式存储
Among the emerging memory devices, many companies are likely focusing more on Magnetic RAM such as STT-MRAM or eSTT-MRAM, and ReRAM including CBRAM, especially for embedded memory applications MRAM players have introduced or shipped the STT-MRAM products with 40 nm, 28 nm, and recently 22 nm CMOS platforms up to date. In particular, 22 nm node STT-MRAMs have been introduced and productized by TSMC first, and then Global Foundries, too. Avalanche, Everspin, SONY, UMC, TDK, Samsung, and Intel are the players on this.
在新兴的存储器件领域，许多公司可能更加关注磁性随机存取存储器（MRAM），如 STT-MRAM 或 eSTT-MRAM，以及电阻随机存取存储器（ReRAM），特别是用于嵌入式存储应用。截至目前，MRAM 厂商已经推出或交付了基于 40 纳米、28 纳米，以及最近 22 纳米 CMOS 平台的 STT-MRAM 产品。特别是，22 纳米节点的 STT-MRAM 首先由台积电（TSMC）推出并实现产品化，随后全球晶圆代工大厂格罗方德（Global Foundries）也推出了。参与其中的厂商包括 Avalanche、Everspin、索尼（SONY）、联电（UMC）、TDK、三星（Samsung）和英特尔（Intel）。
Samsung announced their MRAM development roadmap including 14 nm, 8 nm, and 5 nm embedded memory in series. After mass-producing 28 nm eMRAM in 2019 and 2020, Samsung is currently working on the development of 14 nm FinFET-based eMRAM with plans for mass production this year. For PCRAM (PCM), STMicroelectronics is now the only company to sell embedded products because Intel Optane XPoint memory devices were gone from the market.
三星宣布了其 MRAM 开发路线图，包括 14 纳米、8 纳米和 5 纳米系列嵌入式存储器。在 2019 年和 2020 年大规模生产 28 纳米 eMRAM 之后，三星目前正在开发基于 14 纳米 FinFET 的 eMRAM，并计划今年进行量产。对于 PCRAM（PCM），由于英特尔 Optane XPoint 存储器设备已从市场上消失，STMicroelectronics 现在是唯一销售嵌入式产品的公司。
For ReRAM, Panasonic, UMC, TSMC, and GlobalFoundries are the major players in this, and recently, TSMC has been providing 40 nm and 22 nm embedded ReRAM chips to some IC vendors such as Infineon and Nordic. The Fujitsu 40 nm embedded ReRAM devices are also in the market. ReRAM technology may be the most promising for the next generation of embedded memory applications.
对于 ReRAM，松下、UMC、台积电和 GlobalFoundries 是这一领域的领军企业，最近，台积电已向部分 IC 供应商如英飞凌和北欧半导体提供 40 纳米和 22 纳米的嵌入式 ReRAM 芯片。富士通的 40 纳米嵌入式 ReRAM 设备也已在市场上销售。ReRAM 技术可能是下一代嵌入式存储应用中最有前景的技术。
It’s a little stagnant nowadays for FeRAM, no more advanced technology nodes we found in the market. eDRAM had been mainly driven by GlobalFoundries for IBM and Intel for many years, however, due to the winding down of sub-10nm eDRAM technology business from GlobalFoundries, IBM Power10 will use Samsung eSRAM instead of GF eDRAM for cache memory blocks. Samsung will apply a 7 nm eSRAM platform for the next IBM Power series.
如今 FeRAM 市场略显停滞，市场上找不到更先进的工艺节点。eDRAM 技术长期以来主要是由 GlobalFoundries 为 IBM 和 Intel 提供支持，然而，由于 GlobalFoundries 停止了 10nm 以下 eDRAM 技术的业务，IBM Power10 将使用三星的 eSRAM 来替代 GlobalFoundries 的 eDRAM 作为缓存内存块。三星将为下一代的 IBM Power 系列应用 7nm eSRAM 平台。
eFLASH scaling might come up against technical limitations and cost issues on 22 nm or sub-22 nm nodes. Now, 28 nm node eFLASH technology (for example, Renesas R7F702301BEBBA-C_BC6 TSMC 28 nm Embedded Flash) is mainstream (and would be the last node for eFLASH) in the market. It may be replaced by other emerging memory devices such as MRAM and ReRAM soon.
eFLASH 在 22 纳米或更小尺寸的节点上可能会遇到技术限制和成本问题。目前，28 纳米节点的 eFLASH 技术（例如，瑞萨 R7F702301BEBBA-C_BC6，台积电 28 纳米嵌入式闪存）已在市场上成为主流（也将会是 eFLASH 的最后一个节点），它可能会很快被其他新兴的存储设备如 MRAM 和 ReRAM 所取代。
Mobile RF Technology Roadmap
移动射频技术路线图
In this quarterly update we have marked Huawei’s Pura 70 as continuing the the smartphone radio design architecture launched with Mate 60 Pro and pointing out a few more features related to 5G-Advanced or 3GPP Rel. 18 which China is actively pursuing for a commercial launch in 2024.
本季度更新中，我们将华为 Pura 70 智能手机定位为继续采用与 Mate 60 Pro 一同推出的智能手机射频设计架构，并指出了一些与 5G-Advanced 或 3GPP Rel. 18 相关的特性，这些特性是中国正在积极追求并于 2024 年实现商业化的。
·
The AP/BB Processor mobile platform line up is now accompanied by the line card for all modules and analysis types we have in our platform for the Mobile RF domain.
AP/BB 处理器移动平台系列现在配备了所有模块和分析类型的线路卡，涵盖了我们在移动射频领域的平台中拥有的所有内容。
Radio Designs, Modules and Components analysed in the Mobile RF vertical.
无线射频领域中的无线电设计、模块和组件分析。
Technology and Design Analysis available in the Mobile RF vertical.
移动射频领域提供的技术与设计分析。
The roadmap is introducing several of the upcoming analyses and planned target devices. Please follow this link to access the Mobile RF Technology Roadmap.
路线图介绍了即将推出的多项分析和计划中的目标设备。请点击此链接访问移动射频技术路线图。
Procurement Outlook 采购展望
In 2024, semiconductor sales are experiencing robust growth. The total market for semiconductors grew by 24% in the first half (H1) of 2024 and is expected to continue surging in the second half (H2) at a rate of 29%. We anticipate that the semiconductor market will reach a record high of just under $680 billion. This substantial growth is driven by the increasing demand for high-ticket semiconductors required for AI proliferation, such as GPUs and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which in turn is driving up average selling prices (ASPs).
2024 年，半导体销售额呈现出强劲增长。2024 年上半年（H1）半导体市场总规模增长了 24%，预计下半年（H2）将继续以 29%的速度激增。我们预计，半导体市场将达到近 6800 亿美元的创纪录高点。这种显著的增长是由对 AI 普及所需的高价值半导体需求推动的，例如 GPU 和高带宽内存（HBM），这反过来又推高了平均售价（ASP）。
ASPs are expected to surge by 17% this year. Lower capital expenditures (capex) from industry leaders and continued production cuts have helped alleviate the inventory situation, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace and with mixed results by segment. We expect demand to improve in the second half of the year as edge AI devices become more prominent, further alleviating the inventory situation and strengthening prices.
今年 ASP 预计将增长 17%。行业领军企业的资本支出（capex）降低以及持续的产量削减有助于缓解库存状况，尽管进展速度慢于预期，且各细分市场的结果参差不齐。我们预计，随着边缘 AI 设备越来越突出，需求将在下半年改善，进一步缓解库存状况并加强价格。
TechInsights predicts that this strong momentum will continue through 2025, with semiconductor sales growing another 25% for the year, surging to nearly $850 billion. Strong ASP gains are also expected to continue (up 5%), along with a broad-based recovery across the industry. A replacement cycle for many devices is anticipated as edge AI devices gain traction, devices purchased during the COVID era become outdated, and the migration from Windows 10 to Windows 11 takes place.
TechInsights 预测，这种强劲势头将持续到 2025 年，半导体销售额将再增长 25%，达到近 8500 亿美元。平均售价（ASP）的强劲增长也预计将持续（增长 5%），整个行业也将实现全面复苏。预计许多设备将迎来更换周期，随着边缘人工智能设备获得市场认可，疫情期间购买的设备将变得过时，以及从 Windows 10 迁移到 Windows 11 的过程也将进行。
Price Outlook 价格展望
Memory is at the forefront of the upturn with surging ASPs, driving sales up 87%. Surging demand fueled by the proliferation of memory-intensive applications, including edge AI devices, datacenters, machine learning, the Internet of Things (IoT), and 5G. Notably, AI initiatives are contributing to the increased demand for DDR5 and HBM. In fact, Micron has reported that their HBM is fully allocated for both 2024 and 2025. Additionally, datacenter SSDs are gaining traction, providing a boost to NAND flash sales.
内存需求激增，平均售价（ASPs）大幅上涨，推动销售额增长 87%。受内存密集型应用，包括边缘人工智能设备、数据中心、机器学习、物联网（IoT）和 5G 的普及推动，需求激增。值得注意的是，人工智能项目正推动对 DDR5 和 HBM 的需求增加。实际上，美光公司报告称，他们的 HBM 已完全预订到 2024 年和 2025 年。此外，数据中心固态硬盘（SSD）也受到欢迎，为 NAND 闪存销售提供了助力。
Logic sales are mixed but are expected to jump 16% this year. GPUs will experience the most robust growth, surging 54%, owing to continued demand for AI-based servers. Edge AI devices are anticipated to boost demand and ASPs for smartphones and tablets, which in turn is boosting APU and MPU sales, up 9% and 15% respectively. The automotive and industrial industries have been experiencing some weakness in H1, which is affecting MCUs after three years of strong growth, expected to be down 9% this year.
逻辑产品销售情况好坏参半，但预计今年将增长 16%。由于对基于 AI 的服务器持续需求，GPU 将实现最强劲的增长，增长 54%。边缘 AI 设备预计将推动智能手机和平板电脑的需求和平均售价（ASP），进而推动 APU 和 MPU 销售分别增长 9%和 15%。汽车和工业行业在上半年经历了某些疲软，这影响了连续三年强劲增长的 MCU，预计今年将下降 9%。
Analog remains in correction territory. Inventories are going through a digestion phase and end demand remains weak. Due to the weak end demand, units are decreasing by 1%, and ASPs are falling by 5%, resulting in a 6% decline in revenues. We anticipate that H1 2024 experienced the largest decline. H2 2024 is expected to pull back slightly before growth returns in the beginning of 2025 as end demand gains momentum.
模拟器市场仍处于调整期。库存正在消化过程中，终端需求依然疲软。由于终端需求疲软，单位数量下降 1%，平均售价（ASP）下降 5%，导致收入下降 6%。我们预计 2024 年上半年经历了最大幅度的下降。2024 年下半年有望小幅回升，然后在 2025 年初随着终端需求的增加，增长将回归。
Discrete and Optoelectronics categories will fall this year. Demand for the automotive and industrial industries remains weak, resulting in mounting inventories that are weighing on this segment. Power transistors were resilient during this last downturn; however, they are expected to fall by 8% this year due to plummeting ASPs. Optoelectronics are expected to pull back slightly, although prices are holding steady. We believe we are past the bottom for these segments and will see improving fundamentals in the second half of this year. Demand is expected to return in full force next year as inventories are worked down.
离散和光电子类别今年将出现下滑。汽车和工业行业的需求持续疲软，导致库存不断增加，对该领域造成压力。功率晶体管在上一轮经济衰退中表现出韧性；然而，由于平均售价（ASP）的急剧下降，预计今年将下降 8%。光电子领域预计将略有回调，尽管价格保持稳定。我们相信，这些领域已经触底，今年下半年将看到基本面改善。预计明年需求将全面恢复，随着库存的减少。
Prices decreased the most in the power–products and sensors categories in Q2 2024 (–2% and –1.2% respectively).
2024 年第二季度，电力产品和传感器类别的价格降幅最大（分别下降 2%和 1.2%）。
The average price of almost all other categories stays flat with minimal change in Q2.
几乎所有其他类别的平均价格在第二季度保持平稳，变化微乎其微。
We expect prices to increase by the end of 2024 for most categories. The exception is the discrete-semiconductors segment due to the projected price drop for transistors.
我们预计到 2024 年底，大多数类别的价格将上涨。唯一例外是离散型半导体领域，由于晶体管价格预计将下降。
Integrated circuits will follow that trend except for some embedded processors and controllers.
集成电路将遵循这一趋势，除了某些嵌入式处理器和控制器。
Here are some notes on the general trends of part groups:
以下是一些关于部分群体一般趋势的笔记：
Circuit Protection: Price was flat (0.5% increase) in Q2, as we predicted last quarter. Lead times stayed the same at 12 weeks. We anticipate both pricing and lead times to slightly increase in H2 2024.
电路保护：价格在第二季度保持稳定（上涨 0.5%），正如我们上季度预测的那样。交货期保持不变，仍为 12 周。我们预计 2024 年下半年价格和交货期将略有上升。
Connectors: Q2 2024 price increased 1% except for automotive connectors that showed a 3.4% price decrease due to lower demand. The strength of the industrial market will likely contribute to price increases in this category in the second half of 2024. The lead-time in Q2 was the shortest in all categories at 10 weeks, and we anticipate that it will stay the same until the end of the year.
连接器：2024 年第二季度价格上涨 1%，但汽车连接器因需求下降而出现 3.4%的价格下降。工业市场的强劲表现预计将在 2024 年下半年推动该类产品价格上涨。第二季度所有类别中的交货期最短，为 10 周，我们预计这一情况将持续到年底。
Optoelectronics, Sensors, and Discrete (OSD): Price changes from Q1 2024 to Q2 2024 were slim for optoelectronics and discrete components: 0.2% and –0.3% respectively. The overall discrete price change will stay flat until the end of this year due to a power transistors price drop projected in H2 2024. Sensors prices decreased by 1.2% in Q2 as magnetic sensors had a more aggressive drop due to the automotive industry experiencing lower end demand. Price increases will strengthen starting in the second half of 2024 for sensors and optoelectronics as demand returns. Lead times are steady for sensors 14 weeks and optoelectronics 12 weeks with discrete semiconductors slightly higher at 17 weeks at Q2.
光电子、传感器和分立器件（OSD）：2024 年第一季度至第二季度的价格变动对光电子和分立器件来说都很小，分别为 0.2%和-0.3%。由于预计 2024 年下半年功率晶体管价格将下降，整体分立器件的价格变动将保持平稳直至年底。传感器价格在第二季度下降了 1.2%，由于汽车行业对低端产品的需求下降，磁性传感器的降幅更为明显。预计从 2024 年下半年开始，传感器和光电子的价格将因需求回升而上涨。传感器的交货期为 14 周，光电子为 12 周，而分立半导体在第二季度略有上升，达到 17 周。
Electromechanical: Q2 2024 price started its increase this quarter at 0.9% and will continue its rising path for electromechanical components through the next four quarters. Lead times stabilized at 14 weeks for this segment and will stay the same for the rest of the year.
电气机械：2024 年第二季度价格开始上涨，涨幅为 0.9%，并将持续影响下一年的电气机械组件价格。本季度该领域的交货期稳定在 14 周，并将保持这一水平至年底。
Integrated Circuits: Q2 pricing was flat, decreasing by only 0.5% for ICs with some subcategories decreasing by a slightly higher percentage. Although we are predicting that prices will start to increase in H2 2024 across all ICs, embedded processors and controllers, and logic ICs will show decrease in pricing as consumer electronics seasonality is stronger in Q3, so we should see ASP decreasing because there are more low-price components in the market. The average lead time for ICs is 13 weeks.
集成电路：第二季度价格保持稳定，仅下降 0.5%，部分子类别下降幅度略高。尽管我们预测 2024 年下半年所有集成电路、嵌入式处理器和控制器以及逻辑集成电路的价格将开始上涨，但由于消费电子季节性在第三季度更为明显，因此我们预计平均销售价格（ASP）将下降，因为市场上更多低价组件。集成电路的平均交货期为 13 周。
Passives: Prices continued to decline in Q2 2024, down by 0.9%. We expect prices to slightly increase in H2 as demand returns and inventories are worked down. Lead times are at 17 weeks this quarter and will continue to increase as demand will return in the coming quarters.
被动语态：2024 年第二季度，价格持续下降，降幅为 0.9%。我们预计下半年随着需求回升和库存减少，价格将略有上升。本季度交货期为 17 周，预计在接下来的几个季度中，随着需求的回升，交货期将继续延长。
Power Products: Power Product prices dropped by 2% in Q2 2024. We anticipate flat prices next quarter and modest price increases in the following three quarters. This segment now has the largest lead times change from 14 weeks in Q1 to 19 weeks in Q2 due to a substantial increase in the lead times since last quarter in Aimtec products.
产品动力：2024 年第二季度动力产品价格下降了 2%。我们预计下个季度价格将保持稳定，而在接下来的三个季度中，价格将适度上涨。由于 Aimtec 产品自上一季度以来交货期大幅增加，本季度该板块的交货期变化最大，从第一季度的 14 周增加到第二季度的 19 周。
Lead Time Outlook 提前期展望
Lead times in terms of gross averages are remaining the same at 14 weeks this quarter.
本季度总平均交货期保持不变，仍为 14 周。
Gross Averages lead times are remaining the same at 14 weeks this quarter.
季度内，平均交货期保持不变，仍为 14 周。
Lead times are expected to be flat in H2 2024 in most categories, but we expect a slight increase starting in Q4 as inventories are worked down and demand returns.
第二季度预计大多数类别的交货期将保持稳定，但预计从第四季度开始略有上升，随着库存减少和需求回升。
Lead times for the connectors category is the lowest among all categories and remained at 10 weeks for the second consecutive quarter.
连接器类别的交货期在所有类别中最低，连续第二个季度保持在 10 周。
The power-products segment has the longest lead time at an average of 19 weeks among all component categories and is expected to get longer in following quarters.
组件类别中，功率模块段的交货期最长，平均为 19 周，预计在接下来的季度中还会进一步延长。
