(a) MCHP's dividend growth is likely to continue:
（a） MCHP 的股息增长可能会继续：

1.Strong financial performance: MCHP's revenue has continued to grow in recent years, driven by increased demand for semiconductors and microcontrollers in industries such as automotive, medical and consumer electronics. If this trend continues, the company will have enough cash flow to support dividend growth.
1.强劲的财务业绩：在汽车、医疗和消费电子等行业对半导体和微控制器需求增加的推动下，MCHP 的收入近年来持续增长。如果这种趋势继续下去，公司将有足够的现金流来支持股息增长。

2.Acquisition strategy: MCHP has been enhancing its technology capabilities and market share through acquisitions. If these acquisitions can be successfully integrated and boost the company's revenue, it is possible to continue to drive dividend growth in the future.
2.收购策略：MCHP 一直在通过收购提高其技术能力和市场份额。如果这些收购能够成功整合并增加公司的收入，则有可能在未来继续推动股息增长。

3.Semiconductor market growth trends: With the digital transformation of various industries, the demand for semiconductors is expected to grow significantly. If MCHP is able to capture this market opportunity, its earnings and cash flow will increase, further driving dividend growth.
3.半导体市场增长趋势：随着各行业数字化转型，预计对半导体的需求将大幅增长。如果 MCHP 能够抓住这一市场机会，其收益和现金流将增加，进一步推动股息增长。

4.Low dividend payout ratio: If MCHP maintains a low dividend payout ratio (i.e. pays out a smaller percentage of earnings), this means that the company has plenty of room to continue increasing its dividend even if earnings growth slows down in the future.
4.低股息支付率：如果 MCHP 保持较低的股息支付率（即支付较小比例的收益），这意味着即使未来盈利增长放缓，公司也有足够的空间继续增加股息。

https://www.microchip.com/en-us/about/investors

(b) 2022 and 2023 growth rapidly:
（b） 2022 年和 2023 年快速增长：

Microchip Technology's rapid net income growth in 2022 and 2023 is linked to the company's exceptional financial performance, driven by strong demand in key sectors such as automotive and industrial applications. Microchip saw record revenues during this period, with substantial increases in net sales and net income, which allowed it to allocate more capital to shareholder returns. Additionally, their strategic focus on smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions helped them capitalize on industry trends, further enhancing profitability and enabling significant dividend increases. So the net income in 2022 and 2023 growth rapidly.
Microchip Technology 在 2022 年和 2023 年的净收入快速增长与公司出色的财务业绩有关，这得益于汽车和工业应用等关键领域的强劲需求。在此期间，Microchip 的收入创下了历史新高，净销售额和净收入大幅增长，这使其能够将更多资金分配给股东回报。此外，他们对智能、互联和安全嵌入式控制解决方案的战略关注帮助他们利用行业趋势，进一步提高盈利能力并实现股息的显著增长。因此，2022 年和 2023 年的净收入快速增长。

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/11/03/2548357/0/en/Microchip-Technology-Announces-Record-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2023.html

From the data you provided, Microchip Technology (MCHP) has experienced significant fluctuations in net income (NI) growth in recent years, particularly notable spikes in 2022 and 2023. Whether this growth will continue at the same rate depends on several key factors:
从您提供的数据来看，Microchip Technology （MCHP） 近年来的净收入 （NI） 增长出现了显著波动，尤其是在 2022 年和 2023 年出现显著的峰值。这种增长是否会以相同的速度持续取决于几个关键因素：

1.Technological Innovation and Product Demand: MCHP has been heavily investing in new technologies, such as their SuperFlash® memory and Radiation-Tolerant (RT) systems for space applications. The continued demand in industries such as automotive, aerospace, and industrial automation could sustain growth in the near future。As these sectors increasingly require sophisticated embedded control solutions, MCHP’s products are well-positioned to capture a significant share of the market.
1.技术创新和产品需求：MCHP 一直在大力投资新技术，例如用于空间应用的 SuperFlash® 内存和耐辐射 （RT） 系统。汽车、航空航天和工业自动化等行业的持续需求可能会在不久的将来保持增长。随着这些行业越来越需要复杂的嵌入式控制解决方案，MCHP 的产品处于有利地位，可以占据重要的市场份额。

2.Supply Chain and Manufacturing Capacity: MCHP's strong internal manufacturing capabilities and investments in expanding production capacity have enabled it to meet the growing demand. In fiscal 2023, capital expenditures were between $500 million and $550 million, reflecting a commitment to scaling up its operations to accommodate higher demand. This bodes well for maintaining growth, but any supply chain disruptions or failure to keep up with the technology curve could negatively impact future income.
2.供应链和制造能力：MCHP 强大的内部制造能力和对扩大生产能力的投资使其能够满足不断增长的需求。2023 财年，资本支出在 5 亿美元至 5.5 亿美元之间，反映了公司致力于扩大运营以满足更高需求的承诺。 这对保持增长来说是个好兆头，但任何供应链中断或未能跟上技术曲线都可能对未来收入产生负面影响。

3.Macroeconomic Conditions: The global economic environment plays a critical role in determining future growth. Factors such as inflation, interest rate hikes, and a potential slowdown in global industrial production might challenge Microchip's ability to sustain the recent levels of growth. However, sectors like automotive and industrial automation, where Microchip holds a strong position, are expected to see long-term growth due to increasing digitization and technological advancements.
3.宏观经济状况：全球经济环境在决定未来增长方面起着关键作用。通货膨胀、加息和全球工业生产可能放缓等因素可能会挑战 Microchip 维持近期增长水平的能力。然而，由于数字化和技术进步的提高，Microchip 在汽车和工业自动化等领域占据主导地位，预计该行业将出现长期增长。

4.Market Competition and R&D: The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, and MCHP's ability to maintain its market share will depend on continuous R&D investment and innovation. If MCHP can continue to deliver cutting-edge products while managing costs, it may experience stable growth. Otherwise, fierce competition from other major players could impact its profitability.
4.市场竞争和研发：半导体行业竞争激烈，MCHP保持其市场份额的能力将取决于持续的研发投资和创新。如果 MCHP 能够在管理成本的同时继续提供尖端产品，它可能会实现稳定增长。否则，来自其他主要参与者的激烈竞争可能会影响其盈利能力。

While it's possible that MCHP will continue to experience income growth, it may not be at the same rapid rate as seen in 2022 and 2023. A more moderate growth rate could be anticipated as the company stabilizes following these years of exceptional financial performance
虽然 MCHP 可能会继续实现收入增长，但可能不会像 2022 年和 2023 年那样快速增长。随着公司在这些年出色的财务业绩之后趋于稳定，预计增长率将更加温和.

(c)
（三）.

The method assumes that the company grows only through retained earnings, ignoring cases where the company may expand through external financing, such as debt financing or issuing new shares. In some capital-intensive industries, companies often need external funding to achieve higher growth rates, so this model may underestimate the growth potential, so it is not suitable for volatile companies, and mchp is a growth semiconductor company, so it is not suitable. The company's ROE is volatile, or its retention rate of return is not stable. Wildly fluctuating ROE can lead to misleading growth rate projections.
该方法假设公司仅通过留存收益实现增长，而忽略了公司可能通过外部融资（例如债务融资或发行新股）进行扩张的情况。在一些资本密集型行业，公司往往需要外部资金来实现更高的增长率，因此这种模式可能低估了增长潜力，因此不适合波动较大的公司，而 mchp 是一家成长型半导体公司，因此并不适合。公司的 ROE 波动，或者其留存率不稳定。ROE 的剧烈波动可能导致对增长率的预测产生误导性。

This method relies on historical ROE and retained yield, assuming that future growth will be in line with past performance. However, if the company's future operating environment, competitive posture or strategy changes, historical ROE and retention rate may not reflect future growth potential. It is not suitable for high-growth companies, and for companies in the stage of rapid expansion, this approach may underestimate their growth potential. Because these companies are likely to support faster growth through large-scale refinancing or external capital investment, rather than relying solely on retained earnings.
该方法依赖于历史 ROE 和留存收益率，假设未来的增长将与过去的表现一致。但是，如果公司未来的经营环境、竞争态势或战略发生变化，历史 ROE 和留存率可能无法反映未来的增长潜力。它不适合高增长的公司，对于处于快速扩张阶段的公司，这种方法可能会低估其增长潜力。因为这些公司可能会通过大规模再融资或外部资本投资来支持更快的增长，而不是仅仅依赖留存收益。

Ignoring macroeconomic and industry factors: The methodology does not take into account external factors that affect growth, such as industry changes, macroeconomic situation, market competition, etc. These factors can have a significant impact on a company's future growth, but the formula fails to capture them.
忽略宏观经济和行业因素：该方法未考虑影响增长的外部因素，例如行业变化、宏观经济形势、市场竞争等。这些因素可能会对公司的未来增长产生重大影响，但公式未能捕捉到它们。

g predict:
G 预测：

As can be seen from the table:2014 to 2020: The growth rate is relatively flat, with little change, about 0.5-0.6% per year.2021 to 2023: Growth rates increase significantly, 35.9% and 37.3% respectively. This could be due to a large increase in dividends due to the economic recovery or the company's increased profitability.
从表中可以看出：2014 年至 2020 年：增长率相对平稳，变化不大，每年约 0.5-0.6%.2021 年至 2023 年：增长率显著，分别为 35.9% 和 37.3%。这可能是由于经济复苏或公司盈利能力提高导致股息大幅增加。

1.Corporate profitability and free cash flow
1.企业盈利能力和自由现金流.

Corporate dividends are usually tied to profitability and free cash flow. MCHP has significantly increased its dividend between 2021-2023, likely reflecting the company's improved profitability.If the company's future free cash flow remains strong, the dividend is expected to continue to grow, but probably not at the high growth levels of the last two years.
公司股息通常与盈利能力和自由现金流挂钩。MCHP 在 2021 年至 2023 年期间大幅提高了股息，这可能反映了该公司盈利能力的提高。如果公司未来的自由现金流保持强劲，预计股息将继续增长，但可能不会达到过去两年的高增长水平。

2.Economic environment and market prospects
2.经济环境和市场前景

Future global economic growth will have a direct impact on corporate earnings. If the global economic recovery is strong, the company may continue to maintain a high dividend growth rate; Conversely, a slowing economy could force companies to cut dividend growth.
未来的全球经济增长将对企业盈利产生直接影响。如果全球经济复苏强劲，公司可能会继续保持高股息增长率;相反，经济放缓可能会迫使公司削减股息增长。

3.Volatility in the technology industry
3.科技行业的波动性

It can also affect a company's financial performance, especially in semiconductor sector, where MCHP operates, which is more affected by supply chain and demand fluctuations.
IT 还会影响公司的财务业绩，尤其是在 MCHP 运营的半导体行业，该行业受供应链和需求波动的影响更大。

4.Long-term dividend policy
4.长期分红政策

If companies focus more on reinvesting or expanding capital spending in the future, dividend growth could slow.If the company maintains its current dividend policy, the dividend growth rate is expected to remain relatively high, but probably not as high as the 2021-2023 growth rate.
如果公司在未来更加专注于再投资或扩大资本支出，股息增长可能会放缓。如果公司维持目前的股息政策，预计股息增长率将保持相对较高，但可能不会像 2021-2023 年的增长率那样高。

Conclusion:
结论：

In the short term (next 1-3 years) : Dividend growth is likely to slow somewhat, and the expected annual growth rate is likely to be around 10%-12%, based on the high growth rate in 2021-2023. Even if the company's growth decelerates, future dividend growth rates are likely to be higher than those seen in 2014-2020.
短期内（未来 1-3 年）：股息增长可能会有所放缓，基于 2021-2023 年的高增长率，预计年增长率可能在 10%-1 2% 左右。即使公司的增长放缓，未来的股息增长率也可能高于 2014-2020 年的水平。

Over the longer term (next 5-10 years) : Dividend growth is likely to trend towards a more stable growth rate, expected to be around 5%-10%, unless the company undertakes aggressive capital expenditures or encounters significant economic challenges.
从长远来看（未来 5-10 年）：股息增长可能会趋向于更稳定的增长率，预计在 5%-10% 左右，除非公司进行激进的资本支出或遇到重大经济挑战。

13.re predict:
13.re 预测：

In general, the 10-year Treasury yield is the most common risk-free rate used in valuation because it reflects long-term economic growth expectations and low volatility. Such a period is suitable for valuation analysis by long-term investors.
一般来说，10 年期美国国债收益率是估值中最常用的无风险利率，因为它反映了长期经济增长预期和低波动性。这样的时期适合长期投资者进行估值分析。

Short-term Treasury bonds (such as 1-year or 2-year Treasury bonds), although reflecting the current level of interest rates, are subject to frequent adjustments in monetary policy and are highly volatile, and do not reflect the risks and returns of long-term investments.
短期国债（如1年期或2年期国债）虽然反映了当前的利率水平，但受到货币政策的频繁调整和高度波动的影响，并不反映长期投资的风险和回报。

Although the 30-year Treasury bond can also be used as a risk-free yield, the time is too long, its market liquidity is low, and it will be affected by long-term economic policies and other risk factors, and may not accurately reflect the actual valuation of enterprises
虽然 30 年期国债也可以作为无风险收益率，但时间太长，其市场流动性低，且会受到长期经济政策等风险因素的影响，可能无法准确反映企业的实际估值.

https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Investment+Valuation%3A+Tools+and+Techniques+for+Determining+the+Value+of+Any+Asset%2C+3rd+Edition-p-9781118011522