The transcript has been edited for space and clarity. It may contain errors.
經編輯以節省空間並提高清晰度之文字紀錄可能包含錯誤。

Peter Lynch: I will speak about some of the ideas I used when I was an amateur, when I ran Magellan, and which I still use today. They can make sense for investors.
彼德·林奇： 我將分享一些我在業餘投資時期，在麥哲倫基金管理公司任職期間使用過的方法，以及我至今仍在使用的策略。 這些策略對投資者而言具有實踐意義。

It's a tragedy in America that small investors have been convinced by the media - the print media, radio, television media - they don't have a chance. These media giants have convinced many small investors they can't compete with big institutions - with all their computers and degrees and money. It just isn't true. When this happens, people act accordingly. When they believe it, they buy stocks for a week, and they buy options, and they buy the Chile fund this week. Next week it's the Argentina fund, and they get results proportionate to that investing style. That's bothersome. The public can do extremely well in the stock market on their own. The fact that institutions dominate the market today is a positive for small investors. These institutions push stocks on usual lows. They push them on usual highs. For someone that can sit back and have their own opinion and know something about the industry, this is a positive. It's not a negative. So that's what I want to talk about.
美國的小投資人被媒體（平面媒體、廣播、電視媒體）說服，相信自己沒有機會，這是一場悲劇。這些媒體巨頭讓許多小投資人相信他們無法與大型機構競爭，因為大型機構擁有所有計算機、文憑和資金。這根本不是真的。當這種情況發生時，人們會採取相應的行動。當他們相信時，他們會買入股票一周，他們也會買入期權，他們還會買入本周的智利基金。下周是阿根廷基金，而他們的投資報酬率與這種投資風格成正比。這很令人困擾。公眾可以自行在股市中獲得極佳的成績。機構主導當今市場的事實對小型投資者有利。這些機構在股市低迷時推高股價。在股市高漲時推高股價。對於能夠退一步並擁有自己觀點並瞭解某些行業的人來說，這是一件好事，而不是壞事。這就是我想談的。

The single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own. I'm amazed how many people who own stocks would not be able to tell you why they own them. If you press them, they'll say, "The reason I own this is because the sucker's going up." That's the only reason they own it. I'm serious. If you can't explain to a 10 -year-old in two minutes or less why you own a stock, you shouldn't own it. That's true of about of people who own stocks.
對於任何在股票市場上的人來說，最重要的只有一件事，那就是知道你所擁有的是什麼。令我驚訝的是，有多少擁有股票的人卻無法說出他們為何擁有這些股票。如果你追問他們，他們可能會說：「我持有這檔股票是因為價格正在上漲。」這就是他們持有的唯一理由。我說真的。如果你不能在兩分鐘或更短的時間內向一個 10 歲的孩子解釋你為什麼持有某檔股票，那麼你不應該持有它。這對於大約 的股票持有者來說都是正確的。

This is the stock people like to own. This is the company people adore owning. These are relatively simple companies, and they make a narrow, easy-to-understand product. They make a one-megabit, SRAM, CMOS, bi-polar risk, floating point data IO array processor, with an optimized compiler, a 16-bit dual-port memory, a double-defused metal oxide semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display with a 16 -bit dual memory with a UNIX operating system, four whetstone megaflop poly-silicone emitter, a high bandwidth - that's important - six-gigahertz double metallization communication protocol, an asynchronous backward compatibility, peripheral bus architecture, four-way interleaf memory, a token ring interchanging backplane, and it does it in 15 nanoseconds of capability. If you own a piece of crap like that, you will never make money. Somebody will come along with more whetstones or less whetstones, a bigger megaflop or a smaller megaflop. You won't have the foggiest idea what's happening, and people buy this junk all the time.
這是一般人喜歡擁有的股票。這是一般人喜歡擁有的公司。這些公司相對簡單，而且它們生產狹窄、易於理解的產品。它們生產具有優化編譯器、16 位元雙埠記憶體、雙重擴散金屬氧化物半導體單晶邏輯晶片、等離子體矩陣真空螢光顯示器、具有 16 位元雙記憶體的 UNIX 作業系統、四個 Whetstone 百萬浮點運算次數多矽晶體發射器、高頻寬的 6 千兆赫雙金屬化通訊協定、非同步向下相容性、外圍匯流排架構、四向交錯記憶體、令牌環交換背板，並且在 15 奈秒內完成能力的單兆位元 SRAM、CMOS、雙極風險、浮點資料 I/O 陣列處理器。如果您擁有像這樣的垃圾，您永遠不會賺到錢。有些人會帶著更多或更少的磨刀石、更大的百萬浮點運算次數或更小的百萬浮點運算次數出現。您將一無所知，而人們總是購買這些垃圾。

I made money in Dunkin' Donuts. I can understand it. When there were recessions, I didn't have to worry about what was happening. I could go there, and people were still there, I didn't have to worry about low-priced Korean imports. I can understand it. And you laugh. I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin' Donuts. Those are the stocks I can understand. If you don't understand it, it doesn't work. This is the single biggest principle.
在鄧肯甜甜圈店裡賺錢。我明白。當經濟衰退時，我不用擔心發生的事情。我可以去那裡，人們還在，我不必擔心價格低廉的韓國進口商品。我明白。你笑了。我在鄧肯甜甜圈店裡賺了 10 或 15 倍的錢。這些是我能理解的股票。如果你不明白，它就行不通。這是最重要的原則。

It bothers me that people are careful with their money. The public, when they buy a refrigerator, they go to Consumer Reports. They buy a microwave oven, they do that. They ask people what's the best radar range or what car to buy. They do research on apartments. When they go on a trip to Wyoming, they get a Mobil travel guide. When they go to Europe, they get the Michelin travel guide. People hear a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset, and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market. When they lose money, they blame it on the institutions and program trading. That is garbage. They didn't do any research. They bought a piece of junk, they didn't look at the balance sheet, and that's what you get for it. That's what we're being driven to, and it's self-fulfilling. The public invests terribly, and they say they don't have a chance. It's because that's the way they're acting. I'm trying to convince people there is a method. There are reasons for stocks to go up. This is magic. It's a magic number, easy to remember. Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they earned 32 years ago. The stock has gone up thirtyfold. Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago. The stock is half its price of 30 years ago. Stocks are not lottery tickets. There's a company behind every stock. If a company does well, the stock does well. It's not that complicated.
讓人困擾的是，人們在處理金錢時非常謹慎。大眾在購買冰箱時，會參考消費者報告。購買微波爐時，也會如此。他們會詢問哪種雷達範圍最好或哪款車最好買。他們會研究公寓。當他們去懷俄明州旅行時，會取得美孚旅行指南。當他們去歐洲時，會取得米其林旅行指南。當人們在公車上聽到某支股票的秘訣時，會在日落前投入半輩子的積蓄，然後卻不明白為什麼自己在股市中賠錢。當他們賠錢時，會歸咎於機構和程式交易。那是無稽之談。他們沒有做任何研究。他們買了一堆垃圾，他們沒有查看資產負債表，這就是你的下場。這就是我們被逼上絕路的原因，而且是自作自受。大眾投資得很糟糕，卻說他們沒有機會。那是因為他們就是那樣行動。我試圖說服人們，真的有方法。股票上漲是有原因的。這很神奇。這是一個神奇的數字，很容易記住。可口可樂的每股盈餘是 32 年前的 30 倍。該公司的股價上漲了 30 倍。 伯利恆鋼鐵的收益低於 30 年前。該公司的股價只有 30 年前的一半。股票不是彩票。每支股票背後都有一家公司。如果公司經營良好，股票就會表現良好。這並不複雜。

People get too carried away. They try to predict the stock market. That is a total waste of time. No one can predict the stock market. They try to predict interest rates. If anybody can predict interest rates right three times in a row, they'd be a billionaire. Certainly, there's not that many billionaires on the planet. I took logic, syllogism, when I studied at Boston College. There can't be that many people who can predict interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires, and no one can predict the economy. I know a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and 1982 when we had a prime rate with double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment. I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it. I read. I study all this stuff. I don't remember anybody telling me we'll have the worst recession since the Depression. It would be useful to know what the stock market will do. It would be terrific to know the Dow Jones average a year from now, to know we'll have a full-scale recession, or to know interest rates will be . That's useful stuff. You never know it, though. You just don't get to learn it.
人們太過自信。他們嘗試預測股票市場，但那完全是在浪費時間。沒有人能預測股票市場。他們想要預測利率，如果有誰能連續三次正確預測利率，那麼就會成為億萬富翁。顯然，這個星球上沒有那麼多億萬富翁。我曾在波士頓學院學習數學、三段論法。不可能有那么多人能預測利率，因為那樣就會有很多人成為億萬富翁，但是沒有人能預測經濟。我知道在座有很多人經歷過 1981 和 1982 年，當時利率高於通貨膨脹，同時通貨膨脹和失業率也相當高。我不記得有人在 1981 年就提醒過我。我會閱讀，而且會研究所有關於這方面的一切。我不記得任何人在那之前說過我們即將經歷大萧条以来最严重的衰退。如果能够知道股票市場將何去何从就好了。如果能提前一年预测出道瓊斯指數，或了解到我们将面临一次全面衰退， 或知道利率将达到 ， 那该有多美好。这些都很实用， 但人们却永远不可能知道。根本就不可能预测到。

I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes. Now, I must be fair. l'm talking about economics in the broad scale, predicting the downturn for next year, or the upturn, or M1 and M2, 3B. All of these economic terms are less useful to me than when you talk about scrap prices. When I own auto stocks, I want to know what's happening to used car prices. When used car prices rise, it's a good indicator. When I own hotel stocks, I want to know hotel occupancies. When I own chemical stocks, I want to know what's happening to the price of ethylene. These are facts. If aluminum inventories go down five straight months, that's relevant. I can deal with that. I want to know about home affordability when I own Fannie Mae, or I own a housing stock. These are facts. There are economic facts and there are economic predictions, and economic predictions are a total waste. Alan Greenspan is an honest guy. He would tell you he can't predict interest rates. He can tell you what short rates will do in the next six months. Try and stick him on what the long-term rate will be three years from now. He'll say, "I don't have any idea." So how are you, the investor, supposed to predict interest rates if the head of the Federal Reserve can't do it?
如果每年花 14 分鐘在經濟學上，你就浪費了 12 分鐘。 現在，我必須公平一點。 我所說的經濟學是廣泛的，預測明年或後年的經濟衰退或上漲，或 M1 和 M2、3B。 所有這些經濟術語對我來說都不如廢金屬價格。 當我持有汽車股票時，我只想了解二手車的價格。 當二手車價格上漲時，這是一個好的指標。 當我持有飯店股票時，我只想了解飯店入住率。 當我持有化學股票時，我只想了解乙烯價格。 這些都是事實。 如果鋁庫存連續 5 個月下降，這很有關聯性。 我可以處理這個問題。 當我持有房利美或持有房屋股票時，我只想了解住房的負擔能力。 這些都是事實。 經濟有事實和預測，而經濟預測完全是浪費。 艾倫·葛林斯潘是個誠實的人。 他會告訴你他無法預測利率。 他可以告訴你在接下來的 6 個月內短期利率會如何。 讓他判斷 3 年後的長期利率是多少。 他會說：「我不知道。」那麼，作為投資者，您如何預測利率，如果美聯儲主席都做不到呢？

You should study history. History teaches you the market goes down. It goes down a lot. The math is simple. There have been 93 years this century. The market has had 50 declines of or more. With 50 declines in 93 years, the market falls at least about once every two years. We call that a "correction," a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. Of those 50 declines, 15 have been or more. That's known as a "bear market." We've had 15 declines of at least in 93 years, so every six years, the market has a decline. That's all you need to know. You need to know the market will go down sometimes. If you're not ready for that, you shouldn't own stocks.
你應該學習歷史。歷史告訴你市場會下跌。而且跌幅很大。數學很簡單。本世紀已經有 93 年了。市場已經經歷了 50 次或更多次的跌幅。在 93 年中有 50 次下跌，市場平均每兩年就會下跌 次。我們稱之為「修正」，這是一種委婉的說法，指在短時間內損失大量資金。在這 50 次下跌中，有 15 次跌幅為 或更多。這被稱為「熊市」。在 93 年中，我們經歷了 15 次至少下跌 的跌幅，所以每六年，市場就會有一次 的跌幅。這就是你需要知道的全部內容。你需要知道市場有時會下跌。如果你沒有為此做好準備，你就應該持有股票。

It's good when the market goes down. If you like a stock at and it goes to , that's great. You understand the company. You look at the balance sheet. They're doing fine. You hope for to is terrific, to is exceptional, so you take advantage of these declines. Declines happen, and no one knows when they'll happen. People tell you they predicted it, but they predicted it 53 times. You can take advantage of the volatility of the market if you understand what you own. That's a key element.
市場下跌時，是一件好事。如果你喜歡某隻股票，價格從 跌到 ，那是很棒的一件事。你了解這家公司，你查看了他們的資產負債表，他們做得很好。你希望 降到 是很棒的， 降到 那就更棒了，因此你可以利用這些下跌。下跌是會發生的，而且沒有人知道它們什麼時候會發生。人們會告訴你他們預測到了，但他們已經預測了 53 次。如果你了解你所持有的股票，你就可以利用市場的波動性。這是一個關鍵要素。

Another key element is that you have plenty of time. People are in an unbelievable rush to buy a stock. l'll give you an example of a well-known company. Walmart went public in October of 1970. It already had a great record with 15 years' performance and a great balance sheet. You're a conservative investor. You're not sure if Walmart can make it. You want to check. You see them operate in small towns. You're afraid. They make it in seven or eight states. You want to wait until they go to more states. You keep waiting. You could have bought Walmart 10 years after it went public and made 35 times your money. If you bought it when they went public, you would have made 500 times your money, but you could have waited 10 years after it went public and made over 30 times your money. You could have waited three years after Microsoft went public and made 10 times your money. I know nothing about software. If you knew something about software, you would have said, "These guys have it. I don't care who's going to win, Compaq, IBM. I don't know who's going to win, Japanese computers. I know Microsoft, MS-DOS is the right thing.
另一個重要的元素是您有充足的時間。人們在購買股票時總是非常急躁。舉個知名公司的例子。沃爾瑪於 1970 年 10 月上市。它已經有 15 年的優良業績和健康的資產負債表。您是一位保守的投資者。您不確定沃爾瑪是否能成功。您想先觀察一下。您看到他們在小城鎮經營。您感到有些害怕。他們在七或八個州立足。您想等到他們進入更多州時再購買。您一直等待。您本可以在沃爾瑪上市後 10 年買入並獲得 35 倍的回報。如果您在它上市時購買，您本可以獲得 500 倍的回報。但即使您在它上市 10 年後買入，您仍然可以獲得超過 30 倍的回報。您也可以在微軟上市後 3 年買入並獲得 10 倍的回報。我對軟件一無所知。如果您了解一些軟件，您會說：「這些人很有潛力，我不在乎誰將會贏，康柏、IBM，我不知道是哪家日本電腦公司將會贏，我知道微軟和 MS-DOS 是正確的選擇。」

Stocks are not a lottery ticket. There's a company behind every stock, and you can watch it. You have plenty of time. People are in an amazing rush to purchase a security. They're out of breath when they call up. You don't need to do this.
股票不是樂透彩券。 每一檔股票背後都有一家公司，你可以觀察它。 你有很多時間。 人們急於購買證券，真是令人驚訝。 他們打電話時都氣喘吁吁。 你不需要這樣做。

You need an edge to make money, too. People have incredible edges and they throw them away. l'll give you a quick example of Smith Kline. This is a stock that had the successful drug, Tagamet. You didn't have to buy Smith Kline when Tagamet was doing clinical trials. You didn't have to buy Smith Kline when Tagamet was talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or in the British version, Lancet. You could have bought Smith Kline when Tagamet first came out or a year after it came out. Let's say somebody in your family or you are a nurse, a druggist, or a physician writing all these prescriptions. Tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers. It was a wonderful pill for the company because if you had stopped taking it, the ulcer came back. It
您也需要優勢才能賺錢。人們擁有令人難以置信的優勢，卻棄之如敝屣。我舉史密斯克萊因公司的例子。這家公司擁有成功的藥物泰胃美。當泰胃美還在臨床試驗時，您不必購買史密斯克萊因公司的股票。當《新英格蘭醫學雜誌》或英國版的《柳葉刀》報導泰胃美時，您也不必購買。您可以在泰胃美首次面世時或面世後一年購買史密斯克萊因公司的股票。假設您家人中的某個人或您自己是一名護士、藥劑師或醫生，開具了所有這些處方。泰胃美在治療潰瘍方面取得了驚人的效果。這對公司來說是一款很棒的藥丸，因為如果您停止服用它，潰瘍就會復發。它
wasn't a crummy product, you took it for a buck and then it went away. You could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made 5 or 6 times your money. All the druggists, all the nurses, all the people, millions of people saw this product, but instead they're out buying oil companies or drilling rigs. It happens. Then three or four years later Glaxo, an even bigger company, a huge company, a British company, bought Zantac which was, at that time, an improved product. You could have seen that take market share and do well. You could have bought Glaxo and tripled your money. You only need a few stocks in your lifetime. They're in your industry.
您沒有購買一個糟糕的產品，您只需花一塊錢就買到了它，然後它就消失了。您可以在產品上市兩年後購買它，並賺取 5 或 6 倍的利潤。所有藥劑師、所有護士、所有人、數百萬人都看到了這款產品，但他們卻在購買石油公司或鑽井平台。這就是現實。然後三四年後，葛蘭素史克，一家更大的公司，一家巨大的英國公司，收購了當時更先進的產品善胃得。您可以看到它佔領了市場份額並表現良好。您可以購買葛蘭素史克並將您的資金增加兩倍。您一生中只需要幾隻股票。它們在您的行業中。

If you'd worked in the auto industry - let's say you have been an auto dealer for the last 10 years - you would have seen Chrysler come up with the minivan. If you were a Buick dealer, a Toyota dealer, a Honda dealer, you would have seen the Chrysler dealership packed with people. You could have made 10 times your money on Chrysler a year after the minivan came out. Ford introduced the Taurus Sable, the most exceptional line of cars in the last 20 years. Ford went up sevenfold on the Taurus Sable. So, if you're a car dealer, you only need to buy a few stocks every decade. When your lifetime is over, you don't need a lot of five-baggers to make a lot of money starting with or . In your own industry you'll see a lot of stocks, and that's what bothers me. There are good stocks out there looking for you. People aren't listening and they're not watching.
如果你在汽車行業工作過 - 比如說，你過去十年一直都是汽車經銷商 - 你就會看到克萊斯勒公司推出了小型貨車。如果你是一名別克經銷商、豐田經銷商或本田經銷商，你就會看到克萊斯勒經銷店擠滿了人。在小型貨車問世後的一年，你本可以在克萊斯勒公司賺到 10 倍的資金。福特推出了金牛座 Sable，這是過去 20 年來最出色的汽車系列。福特在金牛座 Sable 上翻了七倍。所以，如果你是一名汽車經銷商，你只需每十年買入幾隻股票即可。當你的生命結束時，你不需要很多五倍股就能從 或 開始賺取大量資金。在您自己的行業中，您會看到很多股票，這就是讓我困擾的地方。有很多好股票在尋找你。人們沒有在聽，也沒有在看。

People have big edges over me. They work in the aluminum industry. I see the aluminum industry has been coming down; the inventory has declined for six straight months. I see demand improving. In America today, it's hard to get an EPA permit for a bowling alley, never mind an aluminum smelter. You know when aluminum gets tight, and you just can't build seven aluminum smelters. When you see this coming, you can say, "Wait a second. I can make some money." When an industry goes from terrible to mediocre, the stock goes north. When it goes from mediocre to good, the stock goes north. When it goes from good to terrific, the stock goes north. There are lots of ways to make money in your own industry. You can be a supplier in the industry. You can be a customer. This thing happens in the paper industry. It happens in the steel industry. It doesn't happen every week, but if you're in some field, you'll see it turn. You'll see something in the publishing industry. These things come along, and it's just mindboggling that people throw it away.
人們在這個領域比我更有優勢。他們在鋁行業工作。我看到鋁行業一直在走下坡路；庫存連續六個月下降。我看到需求有所改善。在今天的美國，即使是保齡球館都很難獲得環保局的許可，更不用說鋁冶煉廠了。你知道，當鋁供應緊張時，你根本不可能建造七家鋁冶煉廠。當你看到這種情況發生時，你可以說：「等等，我可以賺點錢。」當一個行業從糟糕變成平庸時，股票就會上漲。當它從平庸變成好時，股票就會上漲。當它從好變成非常好時，股票就會上漲。在你的行業裡有很多賺錢的方法。你可以成為這個行業的供應商，也可以成為客戶。這種情況在造紙行業和鋼鐵行業都有發生。它不會每週都發生，但如果你在某個領域，你會看到它會發生轉變。你會在出版行業看到一些東西。這些事情會發生，讓人難以置信的是，人們會把這些東西拋棄。

I want to throw out a couple of rules I find useful. People buy when they see a stock has gone down. They ask how much further it can go down. I remember when Polaroid went from to and people said, "Here's this great company, great record. If it ever gets below , just buy every share." It did get below and a lot of people bought on that basis saying, "Look, it's gone from to . It's now at . What a buy!" Within a year, Polaroid was . This is a company with no debt. It was just so overpriced, it went down.
我想提出一些我认为有用的规则。人们在看到股票下跌时就会买入。他们问它还能跌多少。我记得当宝丽来从 跌到 时，人们说，“这是一家伟大的公司，有着辉煌的记录。如果它跌破 ，就买入所有的股票。”它确实跌破了 ，很多人基于此买入，说，“你看，它从 跌到 了。现在是 。真是个好买点！”一年之内，宝丽来跌到了 。这是一家没有债务的公司。它只是被高估了，所以它下跌了。

I did the same thing in my first or second year in Fidelity. Kaiser Industries had gone from a share to . I said, “How much lower can it go at ?" I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever probably on the American stock exchange of Kaiser Industries at . I said, "It's
我還在富達第一或第二年的時候做了同樣的事。凱撒工業已經從 一股變成 一股。我說：「它在 還能跌多少？」我想我們在美國證券交易所買下了可能是有史以來凱撒工業最大的一批股票，價格是 。我說：「這不可能有任何風險，因為在這個層面上，它不可能再低了
gone from to . How much lower can it go?" At , I called my mother and said, "Mom, you got to look at this Kaiser Industries. How much lower can it go? It's gone from to ." It went to . It went to . It went to , and it went to . I am fortunate this happened rapidly, or I would probably still be caddying or working at the Stop and Shop. It happened fast. It was compressed.
從 到 的跌幅。還能跌多少？」在 ，我打電話給我媽媽，說：「媽，你一定要看看這個凱撒工業公司。它還能跌多少？它已經從 跌到 了。」它跌到了 。它跌到了 。它跌到了 ，又跌到了 。我很慶幸這件事發生得很快，否則我可能還在做球僮或在 Stop and Shop 工作。這一切發生的很快，很密集。

At , I figured out there's something wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns of Kaiser Steel. They own of Kaiser Aluminum. They own of Kaiser Cement. They own Kaiser Broadcasting, Kaiser Sand and Gravel, and Kaiser Engineers. They own Jeep. They own business after business, and they had no debt. I learned this early. This might be a breakthrough for some of you people. It's hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt, and the whole company, at , was selling at a total market cap of about million. At that point, it was equal to buying one Boeing 747. I said there's something wrong with this company selling for million. I was a little premature at , but I said everything's fine, and eventually this will work out.
在 ，我意識到這裡有問題，因為凱撒工業擁有 的凱撒鋼鐵。他們擁有 的凱撒鋁業。他們擁有 的凱撒水泥。他們擁有凱撒廣播公司、凱撒砂石公司和凱撒工程公司。他們擁有吉普。他們擁有一家又一家公司，而且沒有任何債務。我很早就意識到了這一點。這對你們中的一些人來說可能是一個突破性的認識。如果你沒有任何債務，公司很難破產，而且整個公司在 時的總市值只有 百萬。當時，這相當於購買一架波音 747。我說這家公司售價 百萬美元肯定有問題。我在 時有點操之過急，但我說一切都好，最終會解決的。

Kaiser effectively gave away all their shares to their shareholders. They passed out shares at Kaiser Cement. They passed out shares in Kaiser Aluminum. They passed out the public shares in Kaiser Steel. They sold all the other businesses, and you got about a share. But if you didn't understand the company, if you were just buying on the fact the stock had gone from to and then it had gone to , what would you do when it went to ? What would you do when it went to ? What would you do when it went to ? This is the problem people have. They sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it, then it goes down and they don't know what to do. Do you flip a coin? Do you walk around the block? What do you do? Psychiatrists haven't worked so far. I haven't seen the psychiatric or psychological fund file with the SEC and make it through as a mutual fund. They haven't seemed to help. I've tried prayer. That hasn't worked. If you don't understand the company, you have this problem when they go down. Eventually, they think it will always come back. This line of thinking doesn't work, either. People think RCA just about got back to its 1929 high when General Electric took it over. Double knits never came back. Remember those beauties? Floppy disks, Western Union, the list goes on and on. People say it'll come back. It doesn't have to come back.
凱撒有效地將其所有股票分發給其股東。他們在凱撒水泥公司分發了股票。他們在凱撒鋁業公司分發了股票。他們在凱撒鋼鐵公司公開分發了股票。他們出售了所有其他業務，你得到了大約每股 美元。但是，如果你不了解這家公司，如果你是基於該股票從 增加到 ，然後又增加到 的事實而買入，那麼當它跌到 時，你會做什麼？當它跌到 時，你會做什麼？當它跌到 時，你會做什麼？這就是人們面臨的問題。他們賣出股票是因為他們不知道為什麼買入，然後股票下跌，他們不知道該怎麼辦。你要拋硬幣嗎？你要繞著街區走嗎？你該做什麼？到目前為止，心理醫生並沒有奏效。我沒有見過心理或心理基金提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件並成功成為一隻共同基金。它們似乎沒有幫助。我嘗試過祈禱。那也沒有用。如果你不了解公司，當股價下跌時，你就會遇到這種問題。最終，他們認為股價總會回升。 這條思路也不管用。人們認為，當通用電氣收購無線電公司時，無線電公司才剛剛恢復到 1929 年的最高點。雙面針織永遠不會回來了。還記得那些美女嗎？軟盤、西聯匯款，等等等等。人們說它會回來的。它不必回來。

Here's another one you hear all the time. I've had people call me up saying, "I'm thinking of buying this stock at . How much can I lose?" Well, you may need a piece of paper for this, but if your neighbor put at into the stock and you put in at and it goes to zero, you lose exactly the same amount of money, everything. If people say, "It's . How much can I lose?" If you put million on it, you can lose million.
以下是一些你經常聽到的問題。有人打電話給我，說：「我正在考慮以 買入這隻股票。我最多會損失多少？」好吧，你可能需要一張紙來計算，但如果你的鄰居以 的價格將 投入股票，而你以 的價格將 投入股票，並且該股票跌至零，那麼你們損失的金額完全相同，都是全部。如果有人說：「我投入了 。我最多會損失多少？」如果你投入了 百萬美元，你可能會損失 百萬美元。

This may be a reason to research a stock. The fact a stock is down from doesn't mean you should buy it. In fact, short sellers - people who make money in stocks - don't short Walmart. They don't short Home Depot. They don't short the great companies like Johnson & Johnson. They short stocks down from to . They'd like to short it at , but they figured out at , this company will go to zero. They just haven't blown taps on this thing yet. It's going to zero, and they're selling short at . They're selling short at , at , at , at , at , at .
這可能是一個研究股票的原因。股票從 下跌到 的事實並不意味著你應該買入。事實上，賣空者 - 靠股票賺錢的人 - 不会做空沃爾瑪。他們不會做空家得寶。他們不會做空強生等優秀公司。他們會做空從 下跌到 的股票。他們想在 做空，但他們發現，在 時，這家公司將歸零。他們只是還沒有放棄這支股票。它將歸零，而他們正在 做空。他們在 做空，在 做空，在 做空，在 做空，在 做空，在 做空。

And you know what? If you sell something short, you need a buyer. Somebody must buy the damn thing! You wonder who's buying this thing. The buyers are people saying, "It's . How much lower can it go?"
而且你知道嗎？如果你做空某樣東西，你需要一個買家。有人必須買下該死的東西！你可能會想知道是誰在買這些東西。買家是那些說「這已經是 了。還能跌多少？」的人。

You can't get too attached to a stock. You must understand there's a company behind it. You can't treat this like your grandchildren. You must deal with the stock and say, "I understand the company." If it deteriorates, if the fundamentals slip, you must say goodbye to it. Remember the rule that the stock does not know you own it. This is a breakthrough. You must understand it and say, they're doing well and as long as they're doing well, l'll hold on to my position. My best stocks have been the stocks I owned in my fifth, sixth, and seventh years, not my fifth, sixth, or seventh day.
您不能對股票過度依戀，您必須了解其背後的公司。您不能像對待孫子孫女一樣對待股票。您必須與股票打交道，並說：“我了解這家公司。”如果它惡化，如果基本面滑落，您必須向它告別。請記住，股票並不知道您擁有它。這是一個突破。您必須理解它，並說：“他們做得很好，只要他們做得很好，我將繼續持有我的頭寸。”我最棒的股票是我在第五、第六和第七年持有，而不是第五、第六或第七天持有的股票。

I'll switch through to my long shots. Avoid long shots. I bought about 30 long shots in my life. I've never broken even on one of them. I call the bad ones "whisper stocks." If Arthur Levitt were here, he'd appreciate these stories. These are the times that somebody calls you up and says, "Hi, Peter. How's Carolyn? How are the kids? l'd like to talk to you about international blivit. Earnings will be unpredictable. They'll be small. It's a share," and they keep whispering all these things. What are you talking about? I don't understand. Either they're so surrounded by people that are going to run out and buy this stock because it's so exciting, or they think the SEC is listening in. They'll get a shorter term -they'll get six months in the camp rather than two years in the camp. But whisper stocks don't work.
我將切換到我的長線投資。避免長線投資。我一生中買了大約 30 支長線股票。我從未在其中之一上實現損益平衡。我稱那些壞股票為「耳語股票」。如果阿瑟·萊維特在這裡，他會欣賞這些故事。這些時候有人打電話給你，說：「嗨，彼得。卡羅琳怎麼樣？孩子們還好嗎？我想跟你談談國際性股票。收益將是不可預測的。它們將很小。它是一股股票的 美元。」並且他們一直在耳語所有這些事情。你在說什麼？我不明白。要麼他們被將要衝出去購買這支股票的人包圍了，因為它太令人興奮了，或者他們認為美國證券交易委員會正在竊聽。他們將獲得更短的刑期 - 他們將在訓練營中呆六個月，而不是兩年。但耳語股票不起作用。

I want to conclude by saying there's always something to worry about if you own stocks. You can't get away from it. What happened in the 1950s, people were worried about. The only reason we got out of the Depression was World War II. We got another recession in the early 1950s. We said we're going to go right back into a depression. People were worried about a depression in the 1950s, and they were worried about nuclear war. Back then, the little warheads they had then, they couldn't blow up a McLane in West Virginia, or a McLane in Virginia or Charleston. All of these countries that end in -stan - there's nine of these "-stan" countries that came out of Russia. They all have enough warheads to blow the world up and no one worries about it. When I was a kid, people built fallout shelters. We used to have civil defense drills. Remember this one in high school? You get under your desk. I never thought, even then, that was a particularly good thing to do. They'd blow a whistle, somebody would put on a hat, and we would all get under our desks. But in the 1950s, people wouldn't buy stocks. Except for the 1980s, the 1950s was the best decade this century of the stock market. People wouldn't buy stocks in the 1950s because they were worried about nuclear war and they were worried about a possible depression.
我總是想說，如果你擁有股票，總有一些事情需要擔心。 你躲不掉。 1950 年代發生的事情，讓人们感到擔憂。 我們走出經濟大蕭條的唯一原因是二戰。 1950 年代初我們又經歷了一次經濟衰退。 我們說我們將會再次陷入經濟蕭條。人們在 1950 年代擔心經濟蕭條，也擔心核戰爭。 當時，他們擁有的那些小型彈頭，不足以炸毀西弗吉尼亞州的麥克萊恩，或者弗吉尼亞州或查爾斯頓的麥克萊恩。所有這些以“斯坦”——stān——結尾的國家——這些是從俄羅斯湧現出來的九個“斯坦”國家。 他們都擁有充足的彈頭來炸毀世界，卻沒有人因此而擔心。 我小時候，人们建造了防護所。 我們曾經參加過民防演習。 還記得在高中時這樣做嗎？ 你躲在你的桌子底下。 即使在當時，我從未認為這是一個特別好的辦法。 他們會吹口哨，有人會戴上帽子，我們都會躲在桌子底下。 但在 1950 年代，人們不會買股票。 除了 1980 年代，1950 年代是本世紀股市表現最好的十年。 在 1950 年代，人們不會購買股票，因為他們擔心核戰爭，也擔心可能發生的經濟大蕭條。

Remember when oil went from to and was headed for and we were going to have a depression? About three years later, the same experts who said oil would go to are higher paid now and they said it was headed for and we're going to have a depression.
記得油價從 飆漲到 ，然後直奔 時，我們都以為要陷入經濟大蕭條了。大約三年後，曾經預言油價將攀升至 的專家們如今薪水更高了，他們預測油價將飆漲至 ，而我們將面臨經濟大蕭條。

Remember how the Japanese were going to own the world, and we were going to have a depression? And then about two years later, we were all worried about Japan collapsing. This is
還記得日本人曾經想要稱霸世界，而我們將面臨經濟大蕭條的時候嗎？然後大約兩年之後，我們又開始擔心日本會崩潰。這段話是關於
the most absurd thing l've ever heard. This is a country with a savings rate, incredible work force, incredible productivity, and people were saying we're going to have a depression because Japan is going to collapse. In their prayer list, they've lowered Mother Teresa and crippled children and they're praying for Japan at night. It's unbelievable.
我聽過最荒唐的事。這個國家儲蓄率 ，勞動力驚人，生產力驚人，人們卻說我們將會因為日本崩潰而陷入經濟大蕭條。在他們的祈禱清單中，他們把德蘭修女和殘疾兒童排在後面，晚上為日本祈禱。真是不可思議。

Remember the LDC debt? Chase had lent their net worth to Brazil, Chile, Peru and those other countries. They were not going to pay it back and we were going to have a depression. It always ends in we're going to have a depression, or we'll have the Great Depression. Now, I understand what these are called - then, they were called "less developed" countries. We used to call them "underdeveloped" countries. Those are all wrong terms. Those are not politically correct. You must call these "emerging" countries. The other day I heard the politically correct term for somebody that's overweight: laterally challenged. There is always something to worry about.
記得那些開發中國家的債務嗎？大通銀行已將他們的淨資產借給巴西、智利、秘魯和其他國家。他們不會償還債務，我們將面臨經濟大蕭條。這總是會以「我們將面臨蕭條」或「我們將面臨大蕭條」告終。現在，我明白這些被稱為什麼了——當時，它們被稱為「未開發」國家。我們曾經稱它們為「欠發達」國家。這些都是錯誤的術語。這些在政治上不正確。你必須稱這些為「新興」國家。前幾天，我聽到了一個政治正確的詞來形容超重的人：橫向發展。總有值得擔憂的事情。

The key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach. It's not the brain. If you can add 8 and 8 and get reasonably close to 16, that's the only level of math you need to know. You don't need to know the area under the curve. Remember that quadratic equation and integral calculus and the area under the curve? Whoever cared what was under the damn curve? But you had to study this. You don't need this in the stock market. All you must know is that it'll always be scary, there will always be something to worry about. You must forget all about it. Cut it all out and own good companies or own turnarounds. Study them and you'll do well.
在股市中你身體最重要的器官是你的胃，而不是大腦。如果你可以將 8 和 8 加起來，並且合理地接近 16，那這就是你唯一需要的數學程度。你不需要知道曲線下方區域。還記得二次方程式、積分和曲線下方區域嗎？有誰在乎曲線下方是什麼？但你必須學習這些。你在股市中不需要這個。你只需要知道它永遠會很可怕，永遠會有些事情需要擔心。你必須忘記所有關於它的知識。放棄所有並擁有好的公司或擁有轉型公司。研究它們，你就會做得很好。

The following are excerpts of the Q&A session:
以下為問答環節的節錄：

Monroe Karmin: When managing a portfolio, do you pay attention to the activities of Congress and the regulators?
門羅·卡明：在管理投資組合時，你會關注國會和監管機構的活動嗎？

Lynch: I spend zero time thinking about what's happening down here in Washington, and I spend only a little time thinking about what's going on in Russia or China. I just deal with facts. When the economy's going down, when economy's going the wrong way, I can deal with that. But this whole healthcare reform bill drove a lot of drug stocks down to low levels. I could say to myself, "60% of Johnson & Johnson's earnings are outside the United States." Their pharmaceutical drug business is all patented and nothing's coming off patent. They only have of sales from one product, which is Tylenol, which is already an over-the-counter drug and it's growing overseas. Why has this stock gone from to ? These companies are already dealing in Japan and overseas. They already have the government controlling pharmaceutical prices. They've dealt with them. I deal with facts. They might, this year - I thought it was likely they'd have a bill passed on healthcare. It didn't happen. It drove the stocks down, but I think the stocks would have rebounded anyway even if the healthcare bill had passed. I don't deal with what's happening in Congress or what's going to happen in the future. I just deal with what's happening in the economy and what's happening in the companies I call.
林奇：我花在思考華盛頓發生什麼事上的時間為零，而花在思考俄羅斯或中國發生什麼事上的時間也只有一點點。我只處理事實。當經濟走下坡時，當經濟走錯方向時，我可以應付。但這整個醫療改革法案讓許多製藥類股跌至低點。我可以對自己說：「強生 60% 的收入來自美國境外。」他們的藥品業務全部已取得專利，而且沒有專利到期。他們只有一種產品，也就是泰諾所帶來的銷售額不到 ，而泰諾已經是成藥，並且在海外持續成長。為什麼這支股票會從 跌到 ？這些公司已經在日本和海外營運。他們已經有政府控制藥品價格了。他們已經應付過了。我處理事實。他們今年可能會，我原以為他們可能會通過醫療改革法案。並沒有。這導致股價下跌，但我認為即使醫療改革法案獲通過，股價也會回升。 我不處理國會正在發生的事情或未來將會發生的事情。我只處理經濟正在發生的事情，以及我所呼籲的公司正在發生的事情。

Karmin: How useful is the financial reporting in the general daily press to you? And how useful should it be to investors in general?
Karmin：請問您認為一般日常媒體的財經報導對您有多大的用處？以及您認為這些報導對於一般投資者來說應該有多大的用處？

Lynch: It has improved dramatically not just in the press but also company reporting. Ten years ago, companies didn't have interim balance sheets. I'd imagine they only gave their balance sheet to you annually. Now they share it quarterly. They report inventories, receivables, and other useful information. In the major newspapers, they even show types of funds. There are around 2,500 companies in the New York Stock Exchange. There are over 5,000 different mutual funds, twice as many mutual funds as stocks. At least in the paper, they explain something about the fund.
林奇：它不僅在媒體方面，而且在公司報告方面都有了顯著的改善。十年前，公司沒有中期資產負債表。我想他們只會每年向您提供他們的資產負債表。現在他們每季度分享一次。他們報告庫存、應收賬款和其他有用信息。在主要報紙上，他們甚至顯示基金類型。紐約證券交易所約有 2,500 家公司。有超過 5,000 種不同的共同基金，共同基金的數量是股票的兩倍。至少在文件中，他們會解釋一些關於基金的信息。

If you own auto stocks, you shouldn't be reading the financial part of the newspaper. Many local newspapers devote a whole four pages on automobiles weekly. They talk about new models and offer opinions about automobiles. If you own auto stocks, that's the part of the newspaper automobile stock owners should look at.
如果您擁有汽車股票，您就不應該閱讀報紙的財經部分。許多地方報紙每周都會專門報導汽車版塊。他們討論新車型並發表對汽車的評論。如果您擁有汽車股票，那麼汽車股票持有者應該關注的是報紙的這一部分。

You shouldn't be calling your broker four times a day to get stock quotes. It doesn't work. Getting up in the morning to see how your stock did yesterday is not useful, either. All this stuff is just a waste of time. If you're adding up how much your stocks are worth, it's an absolute waste of time. You should be looking at the company when you get the quarterly reports.
您每天不應該打電話四次給您的經紀人以獲取股票報價。這沒有用。早上起床看你的股票昨天表現如何，也沒有用。所有這些東西都只是在浪費時間。如果您正在計算您的股票價值多少，這絕對是浪費時間。當您收到季度報告時，您應該查看該公司。

If you were in the retailing industry or if you were in the restaurant industry, you would have seen companies like Taco Bell, McDonald's, and Toys " " Us. You would have seen all these companies do terrifically well. You would have seen Bombay and Radio Shack and its Tandy. You would have seen Radio Shack roll across the country until there were 25 Radio Shacks in every major city. You said there's not much room for them to grow, but they had a great 20 -year run. That's what you're dealing with. You're not dealing with the minutiae of today. You're dealing with what this company is doing two years, three years, four years, five years from now. If you're dealing with a cyclical and business is turning around, you wait for signs that business is slowing down. When you see it, you move on to something else.
如果您身處零售行業或餐飲行業，您會見證到 Taco Bell、麥當勞和 Toys " " 等公司的輝煌業績。您會看到他們都做得非常好。您會看到孟買和 Radio Shack 及其 Tandy。您會看到 Radio Shack 席捲全國，每個主要城市都有 25 家分店。你說他們的成長空間不大，但他們已經風光了 20 年。這就是你所面臨的挑戰。您不是在處理當下的瑣事，您是在處理這家公司 2 年、3 年、4 年、5 年後會做些什麼。如果你在處理一個週期性的業務，而且業務正在好轉，你就等待業務放緩的信號。當你看到它，你就轉向其他事情。

Karmin: Are you concerned about the volatility in the financial markets today? Do you think something needs to be done to reduce it?
Karmin：你是否擔心金融市場今天的波動性？你認為需要做些什麼來降低它嗎？

Lynch: I love volatility. I remember the market went down dramatically in 1972. Taco Bell went from to . It had no debt. It never closed a restaurant. I started buying at , but I kept on it and it went to $1. It was the largest position in Magellan in 1978 when Pepsi-Cola bought it out at . It would have gone to if Pepsi hadn't bought it out. Volatility is terrific. These calls are important. I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next is a good thing for the public. But I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important, but the market is going to go up and down.
林奇：我喜欢波动性。我记得 1972 年市场大幅下跌。Taco Bell 从 跌到 。它没有债务。它从未关闭过餐厅。我开始在 买入，但我一直持有，它涨到了 1 美元。1978 年，百事可乐以 的价格收购它时，它是麦哲伦基金中最大的持仓。如果百事可乐没有收购它，它可能会涨到 。波动性太棒了。这些看涨期权很重要。我认为市场一天上涨 80 点，第二天又下跌 80 点对公众来说不是好事。但我认为所有这些看涨期权和其他所有压低每日波动的措施都很重要，但市场将继续上涨和下跌。

Human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25,000 years. Some event will come out of left field and the market will go down or the market will go up. Volatility will occur, and the markets will continue to have these ups and downs. That presents a great opportunity if people can
人性在 25,000 年來並沒有改變多少。某些事件會出乎意料地發生，導致市場下跌或上漲。波動性將會發生，市場將會持續出現這些起伏。如果人們能夠 ##
understand what they own. If they don't understand what they own, they can own mutual funds and keep adding to their mutual funds. Basic corporate profits have grown about per year historically. Corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years, too. The market is about 3,800 today. I'm convinced the next 3,800 points will be up. It won't be down. After that - the next 500 or 600 points - I don't know which way they'll go. The market ought to double in the next eight or nine years and double again in the eight or nine years after that because profits will go up , then stocks will fall. That's all there is to it.
基本企業利潤在歷史上每年約增長 。企業利潤大約每九年翻一番。股市也應大約每九年翻一番。今天的市場大約是 3,800 點。我相信接下來的 3,800 點會上漲。不會下跌。之後的 500 或 600 點 - 不知道他們會怎麼走。未來八九年，市場應該會翻一番，再過八九年後會再次翻一番，因為利潤將會上漲 ，之後股市就會下跌。這就是全部了。

Karmin: We're in the month of October. Beware of the month of October, the witching month of the stock market. What do you see as the outlook for this month? And when do you think the Dow will hit 4,000 ?
凱敏：我們現在是 10 月份。小心 10 月份，這個股市的妖魔之月。您如何看待本月的展望？您認為道瓊指數何時會達到 4,000 點？

Lynch: October's always been a special month. In 1987, I was convinced the market was not in trouble and I didn't worry about things. Carolyn and I planned this great golf vacation to Ireland. We planned to visit one course and stay at a little house and visit another and go all along the west coast of Ireland and play golf. We left on a Thursday night. The market went down 55 points that day, which was not too good. The next day, we got to Ireland. Because of the time difference, we had completed our day. I got back to the hotel and called in. The market had gone down 112 on Friday. I said to Carolyn, "I think if the market goes down on Monday, we're going to have to go back." We stayed there for the weekend, and on Monday, the market went down 508 points. My fund went from around billion to around billion. That gets your attention - two working days. I said by the end of this week, l'd have no fund.
林奇：十月對我而言一直都是特別的月份。1987 年，我確信市場並未陷入困境，所以我也沒有過度擔憂。卡洛琳和我計畫到愛爾蘭進行一場很棒的高爾夫球假期。我們計畫參觀一個球場並住在一個小房子裡，然後再參觀另一個球場，沿著愛爾蘭西海岸一路打球。我們在週四晚上出發，當天市場下跌了 55 點，情況不太妙。隔天，我們到達愛爾蘭。由於時差的關係，一天的時間已經過去了。我回到飯店並打電話聯繫。週五市場下跌了 112 點，我對卡洛琳說：「如果週一下跌，我想我們就必須回去了。」我們在愛爾蘭待了週末，到了週一，市場暴跌 508 點。我的基金從大約 美元縮水到約莫 美元。那真的很嚇人 — 兩個工作天。我心想，到了週末結束，我的基金可能就要歸零了。

There wasn't a lot I could do. Here it was Monday, because the market didn't open - by 12:00 in Ireland it was still 7:00 in New York. We did spend that day, and we played around and golfed more, and then we went somewhere instead to watch the market deteriorate. I did return home. There was nothing I could do about it. But I think my shareholders thought differently. They called up and asked, "Well, what's Lynch doing?" They said, "He's on the sixth hole. He's even par now, but he's in a trap. This could be a triple bogey here. This could be a big inning." I don't think that's exactly what shareholders wanted to hear, but it's not like I could do something about this damn thing. So, I came back home and suffered with everybody else. I was consistent. When I ran Magellan, in 13 years the market went down nine times. Every time the market went down, Magellan went down. I was nine for nine.
市場沒有開市，因為愛爾蘭時間週一是上午 12:00，紐約時間則是上午 7:00。我們在那天玩了一整天的高爾夫球，然後去某個地方看市場走勢。我最後回到了家。我對此無能為力。但我想我的股東們的想法不一樣。他們打電話來問：「林奇在做什麼？」他們說：「他正在打第六洞。現在是標準桿，但他遇到了麻煩。這可能會是一個三倍柏忌。」我不認為這是股東們想聽到的，但這不是我可以控制的。所以，我回到了家，和其他人一起承受損失。我一直很穩定。在我管理麥哲倫基金的 13 年裡，市場下跌了九次。每次市場下跌，麥哲倫基金都會下跌。我九戰九勝。

Here's another one of these numbers you must write down: If you put in a stock, all you can lose is . I've done that several times. But if you're right, you make , . In this business, you don't have to be right one out of two times. You can be right one out of four. A lot of the times you're right, you know the company's doing well, you know they're doing a great job, and you add to it or at least you don't sell it, which is a tragedy. You can make more money on the upside. I just roll those out. I will now flip a coin to tell you whether the market will go to 4,000 this year or next year. Heads means it goes up, but it's a two-headed
**以下列出的數字您務必記住：在股票中，如果放進＜代碼 0＞ ，那麼您可能損失的最多就是 ＜代碼 1＞**，這我有幾次都經歷過了。但如果您做對了，您就可以賺到＜代碼 2＞，甚至更多＜代碼 3＞**。在這個行業，您不需要有二分之一的決策是正確的。 您只需要四分之一的決策是正確的。 在許多時候您都是對的，您知道企業經營良好，您知道公司做得很好，那麼您可以持續買進股票或至少不要賣出，否則將會錯失良機。您可以在上漲的過程中賺到更多的錢。我只想讓您們了解這些資訊。**現在我會拋出一枚硬幣，告诉您市场是否会在今年或明年涨到 4,000 点**。 正面朝上表示市場會繼續上漲，但硬幣正反都是正面。**所以我們要相信這枚硬幣，因為市場在未來 24 個月內肯定會出現新的高點。 我認為這會在不久的將來實現。 我可以向您保證**，無論是在 2023 年或 2024 年，我們都會看到股市攀升至歷史新高。
coin. I flipped the coin and the market will go up in the next year. That's it. That's all I ever know about the stock market.
拋硬幣。我拋了一個硬幣，結果是市場將在明年上漲。就這樣。這就是我所知道的所有關於股市的事。

Karmin: As you can imagine, we have many questions about where people should put their money. l'll divide it into two parts, and you can address it. This questioner intends to put yearly into their four-year-old daughter's education fund. Where should it be invested? The other question covers everybody else: What are some of your current market favorites and why?
卡敏：如你所想，我們有很多關於人們應該如何投資的問題。我會將其分成兩部分，你可以解決它。這個問題者打算每年將 投入他們四歲女兒的教育基金。應該投資在哪里？另一個問題涉及所有人：您目前最喜歡的市場是什麼，為什麼？

Lynch: On the first one - and this is important whether you're investing for a four-year-old, a 14-year-old, or a 74-year-old - you must ask, "What am I going to do when the market goes down?" I've had audiences like this, and l've asked, "How many people in the room are short-term investors?" I've never had anybody raise their hand. Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down. I remember 1990, a scarier year than 1987. In 1987, the market just fell. You call up companies, and they say, "Our business is terrific. We're about to announce a stock buyback. We're already buying back stock. Business is great, and we can't figure this out." But 1990 was different. Iraq invaded Kuwait. You had the banking system on the ropes, I mean close. You call up a company and they say their business was slowing down.
林奇：關於第一個問題 - 無論你是在為四歲、十四歲還是七十四歲的孩子投資，這都是很重要的 - 你必須問自己，「當市場下跌時，我該怎麼辦？」我曾經問過像你們這樣的聽眾，「在座有多少人是短期投資者？」我從來沒有看過有人舉手。全世界每個人都是長期投資者，直到市場下跌。我記得 1990 年，那一年比 1987 年更可怕。1987 年，市場只是下跌。你打電話給公司，他們會說，「我們的生意很好。我們即將宣布股票回購。我們已經在回購股票。生意很好，我們搞不清楚這是怎麼回事。」但 1990 年不一樣。伊拉克入侵科威特。你看到銀行系統岌岌可危，我指的是搖搖欲墜。你打電話給一家公司，他們會說他們的生意正在放緩。

We sent 500,000 troops to Saudi, and we're about to fight what people thought was the fourth largest army in the world. Some said they were the toughest army in the world. This was going to be a terrible war, and we ought to sit them out. Remember the big theory? A lot of people in this city said we ought to wait them out. We'd still be waiting for them in 120 degrees, about 500,000 people. I think Bush made an incredibly brave decision on the information he was getting to go in there and knock them out or we'd still be there. But that was an ugly time, and that was scary. Some people learned from 1987 and they stood throughout that and said, "I'm confident about the next 5, 10, 15 years in this country," and they hung in there.
我們派遣 50 萬軍隊到沙烏地阿拉伯，準備對抗一般認為是世界第四大軍隊的敵軍。有些人說他們是世界上最難纏的軍隊。這場戰爭將會非常慘烈，我們應該置身事外。還記得那個盛行的理論嗎？這個城市裡有很多人認為我們應該等待時機。我們將在攝氏 50 度的高溫中等待他們，大約 50 萬人。我認為布希根據他所獲得的情報，做出了非常勇敢的決定，要進攻他們並將他們擊潰，否則我們將會繼續在那裡。但是那段時間非常糟糕，讓人感到恐懼。有些人從 1987 年的經驗中吸取教訓，他們在整個過程中都堅定不移，並表示：「我對這個國家的未來 5 年、10 年、15 年充滿信心」，他們堅持了下來。

If you want to buy a small growth fund or a balanced fund that's part bonds and part stocks and you put so much money in, then you should put more in every year. You'll be pleased in 10, 20, or 30 years. Stocks will beat the hell out of money markets. They'll beat the hell out of bonds. Think of it this way: Great corporations like McDonald's, Marriott, or any other will never get together and say, "We're doing well. Why don't we raise the coupon on our bonds? Those bond holders have been loyal. We've been given . Why don't we raise it to ?" Companies like Automatic Data Processing - it does payrolls, an amazing prosaic company, 32 years of higher earnings, 32 years of double-digit earnings growth. We've had recessions. We've had wars. We've had changes in Congress, changes in the Supreme Court, but it's had 32 years of up earnings. That's what you're relying on; Johnson & Johnson has 30 years of up earnings, General Parts 42 years of up earnings, Emerson Electric 38 years of up earnings. You don't see companies like this in other parts of the world. That's what you buy when you buy a fund. You buy a bunch of good companies.
如果你想買一支小型成長型基金或一支混合型基金，其中一部分是債券，一部分是股票，那麼你應該每年投入更多的資金。你會在 10 年、20 年或 30 年後感到高興。股票的表現將遠遠超過貨幣市場。它們的表現將遠遠超過債券。你可以這樣想：像麥當勞、萬豪或任何其他優秀公司永遠不會聚在一起說：「我們經營得很好。為什麼不提高我們債券的票面利率？那些債券持有人一直很忠誠。他們已經給了我們 。為什麼不把它提高到 ？」像自動數據處理公司這樣的公司——它負責工資單，這是一家令人驚嘆的務實公司，已有 32 年的盈利增長，32 年的兩位數盈利增長。我們經歷過經濟衰退。我們經歷過戰爭。我們經歷過國會的更迭，最高法院的更迭，但它已經有 32 年的盈利增長。這就是你所依靠的；強生公司有 30 年的盈利增長，通用汽車公司有 42 年的盈利增長，愛默生電氣公司有 38 年的盈利增長。你在世界其他地方看不到像這樣的公司。這就是你在買基金時所購買的。你買的是一群好的公司。

As for the stocks, the financial area has been attractive. Stocks like Chemical, or Traveler's, or Citicorp, or Bank of Austin, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, these stocks have all come down. Their
至於股票，金融領域一直很有吸引力。化工、旅行者、花旗銀行、奧斯丁銀行、房利美、房地美等股票都下跌了。
businesses are terrific. They've improved their balance sheets. They're selling at multiples half or lower than the general market. We have a chance for the cyclicals for the first time in a long time - the steels, papers, aluminums, chemicals. It's their turn to come to the plate. We seem to have an economy recovering in Latin America. Brazil is turning around. These are facts, again. Things are improving in India. Europe had the worst recession since the Depression. There are 18 million people out of work in Western Europe right now, and the economy is starting to slowly turn. Japan has bottomed. I think you'll see demand.
企業表現出色，資產負債表改善， 交易倍數比一般市場低一半或更低。 我們有機會在很長一段時間內第一次看到週期性行業的表现， 例如鋼鐵、造紙、鋁業和化學品。 輪到它們登場了。 拉丁美洲的經濟似乎正在復甦。 巴西正在好轉。 這些都是事實。 印度的情況正在改善。 歐洲經歷了自大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟衰退。 目前西歐有 1,800 萬人失業，經濟開始緩慢復甦。 日本觸底反彈。 我認為你會看到需求。

Commodity prices look attractive. Aluminum prices reached a 30-year low. Ingot has almost doubled. You'll see the same thing with linerboard. We'll see a good time for cyclical stocks, and I think the auto stocks are also extremely cheap at four or five times earnings. These are not extraordinary times. Housing is affordable. It's not as affordable as it was two years ago, but on a 20 -year basis, housing is affordable. Automobiles are affordable. Consumer durables are affordable.
商品价格看起来很有吸引力。铝价触及 30 年低点。铝锭的价格几乎翻了一番。纸板也会出现同样的情况。周期性股票将迎来大好时光，我认为汽车股的市盈率也非常低廉，只有 4 或 5 倍。现在并非特殊时期。住房价格可承受。虽然没有两年前那么便宜，但从 20 年的周期来看，住房价格仍然可承受。汽车价格可承受。耐用消费品价格可承受。

We hear about job growth. In the recession, we lost 1.8 million jobs, and now we've added 5.8 million, 4.5 million in the last 19 months. We lost 1.8 million and we've added 5.8 million back. We're 4 million to the good. The tough part of it is we dropped about 600,000 manufacturing jobs and we only brought back 100,000 manufacturing jobs. But there are a lot more people working, and I think that trend will continue. This is key. This is what you hear from the press. This is what you hear from TV. In the decade of the 1980 s, the 500 largest companies eliminated 3 million jobs, but there were 2.1 million businesses started in the 1980s. If they just have 10 people each, that's 21 million jobs. It's an incredible job machine we have in America.
我們聽到就業增長的消息。在經濟衰退期間，我們失去了 180 萬個就業機會，現在我們增加了 580 萬個就業機會，其中 450 萬個是在過去 19 個月增加的。我們失去了 180 萬個就業機會，現在我們又增加了 580 萬個就業機會。我們賺了 400 萬個就業機會。最糟糕的是，我們損失了大約 60 萬個製造業就業機會，而我們只增加了 10 萬個製造業就業機會。但現在有更多的人在工作，而且我认为这种趋势将继续下去。這很重要。這是你從新聞媒体上听到的。這是你在電視上听到的。在 20 世紀 80 年代，500 家最大的公司裁掉了 300 萬個 就業機會，但在 20 世紀 80 年代有 210 萬家企業成立。如果他們每家公司只有 10 個人，那么就創造了 2100 萬個 就業機會。美國拥有令人难以置信的就業機會創造機制。

That's what happened in the 1980 s. These 2.1 million businesses created all the jobs. In the decade of the 1990 s, the top 500 companies will eliminate another 3 million jobs, and all you ever hear about is company lays off 5,000 people in Hartford, and company lays off 5,000 people in Rochester. Somebody doesn't buy a sofa in Scottsdale, Arizona because they read about layoffs in the Northeast. That's the nature. These companies must make these layoffs to stay competitive. That's our business. We've had, in the last 2.5 years, 1,750 companies become public. They raised over billion. There are only 2,500 companies on the New York Stock Exchange. They'll put the capital they raised into research and development. They'll put it into more plants and more efficient equipment. This is a fantastic thing for these companies. I think the situation is excellent.
在 1980 年代，有 210 萬間企業創造了所有就業機會。在 1990 年代，排名前 500 的企業裁減了 300 萬個工作機會。你所聽到的都是公司在哈特福德裁減 5,000 人，公司在羅切斯特裁減 5,000 人。亞利桑那州斯科茨代爾的某人因為讀到東北地區的裁員消息，就不買沙發了。這就是事實。這些公司必須裁員才能保持競爭力。這是我們的業務。在過去的 2.5 年裡，有 1,750 家公司上市，融資超過 億美元。紐約證券交易所只有 2,500 家公司。他們會將融資所得用於研發。他們會把它投入到更多工廠和更高效的設備中。这对這些公司來說是一件非常棒的事情。我认为形势一片大好。

The banking system today has more investments on the left side of the balance sheet. We're talking about the governments they own, the mortgage-backed securities they own, then they have loans for the first time ever since 1951. They're only making 50, 20, 30 basis points and they said, "We'll have to make loans." The banking system has the highest equity-to-assets in 45 years. The banking system is ready to go. There's lots of liquidity to run. I don't know why some people are so depressed about people getting hired all the time. I can't quite figure this out. I've never met a banker or anybody in business that likes recession. I've yet to find these people.
今天，銀行體系的資產負債表左側投資增加。我們談到他們持有的政府債券、抵押貸款證券，然後自 1951 年以來首次貸款。他們的利潤率只有 50 個基點、20 個基點和 30 個基點，他們說，「我們必須提供貸款。」銀行體系的股權與資產比率為 45 年來的最高水平。銀行體系已準備就緒。有大量的流動性可以運作。我不知道為什麼有些人會因為一直有人被錄用而感到沮喪。我弄不明白這一點。我從未見過任何銀行家或任何商業人士喜歡經濟衰退。我還沒找到這些人。

Karmin: Speaking of banks, are you concerned about banks being allowed to offer mutual funds and the confusion that creates among investors over whether bank deposits are insured or not? Are you concerned about the whole question of deregulation?
Karmin：说到银行，您是否担心银行被允许提供共同基金，以及由此在投资者中产生的关于银行存款是否受保的困惑？您是否担心整个放松管制的问题？

Lynch: I think it's positive that banks will be allowed to sell mutual funds because they'll probably sell a lot of Fidelity mutual funds. That's important. No, but seriously, I think it's important that people understand when they own a bond fund that bonds can go up and down. Bonds are just about as volatile as stocks. If they own a 30 -year bond fund, then you can lose of your money fast even if they're government bonds. People must understand this.
林奇： 我認為銀行被允許銷售共同基金是一件好事，因為他們可能會銷售大量富達共同基金。這很重要。不，但說真的，我覺得人們必須要了解，當他們持有債券基金時，這些債券可能會上漲或下跌。 債券的波動性幾乎與股票一樣高。如果他們持有 30 年期債券基金，那麼即使是政府債券，你也可能會很快損失一大筆錢。人們必須理解這一點。

There's an incredible rate of illiteracy in our public. All they ever hear about is what happened today to Bristol-Myers going up or , what happened to Dow Jones. They don't get to learn anything about America. People near retirement are given, say, as early retirement. They have no experience. They don't know what a bond is. They don't know what stocks are. They must make decisions in 30 or 60 days, or they'll have a big tax consequence. These people have no experience learning about the stock market. It's a tragedy. I think anything we can do to educate the public, if you can convince people, if they understand the volatility of the stock market - l'm not saying anybody should buy a stock. I'm just saying if you purchase a stock, you must do certain things. If you're not ready to do those things, you should keep your money in the bank. Keep your money in a money market fund.
在我們的公眾中，文盲率令人難以置信。他們所听到的只是布里斯托-邁爾斯今天上涨了 或 ，道瓊斯指數如何。他們了解不到任何關於美國的知識。 接近退休的人被給予，例如， 作為提前退休。他們沒有經驗。他們不知道什么是債券。他們不知道什么是股票。 他們必須在 30 或 60 天內做出決定，否則他們將面臨巨大的稅務後果。 這些人沒有學習股票市場的經驗。 这是一个悲剧。 我认为我们能做任何事情来教育公众，如果你能说服人们，如果他们了解股票市场的波动性 - 我不是说每个人都应该买股票。 我只是说，如果你购买股票，你必须做某些事情。 如果你还没有准备好做这些事情，你应该把你的钱存入银行。 把你的钱放在货币市场基金里。

Some people don't do their homework, they don't have the stomach for it. They should stay out. They're not doing anybody any good by taking half their life savings and putting it in the stock market. They've been lucky enough to save or to send their kids to college, and one is going to start in a year. They're going to take all that money and put it in an equity mutual fund with a one-year horizon. That's doing no one any good. The SEC is working hard on explaining to people the nature of these products. If they understand them, they'll do better with it. The more information, the merrier.
有人不做他們的功課，他們沒有胃口去做。他們應該退出。他們把半輩子的積蓄投入股市，並沒有給任何人帶來好處。他們很幸運地存夠了 或 來送孩子上大學，其中一個孩子將在一年的時間內開始上大學。他們將把所有這些錢都投入到一隻股票共同基金中，期限為一年。這對任何人都沒有好處。證券交易委員會正在努力向人們解釋這些產品的性質。如果他們理解這些產品，他們就會做得更好。信息越多越好。

Fidelity is launching a major study on retirement. It will be out by the end of this year. We'll do it over 1,600 people, over 300 experts. We'll do a major study and explain to people the nature of retirement and how they can best understand how they should invest their assets. We won't mention Fidelity - maybe subliminally! We're trying to help. There's been an incredible push by the SEC to do this, and I think it's a positive element.
富達正在啟動一項關於退休的重大研究。它將在今年年底前完成。我們將在 1,600 多人、300 多位專家中進行這項研究。我們將進行一項重大研究，向人們解釋退休的性質以及他們如何才能最好地了解應該如何投資他們的資產。我們不會提到富達 - 只是潛意識裡！我們正在嘗試幫助。美國證券交易委員會一直在大力推動這項工作，我认为這是一個積極的因素。

Karmin: A couple of questions about that. What do you think of the SEC's proposal to require mutual funds to adapt a quantitative ratings scale for riskiness? Also, what effect do you feel the new shareholder rights proposals for more open disclosure and communication are having on companies and the market?
Karmin： 關於這一點，我想問幾個問題。您如何看待美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 要求共同基金採用量化評級來評估風險的提議？此外，您認為新的股東權利提案，即更公開的披露和溝通，對公司和市場產生了什麼影響？

Lynch: I'm not too familiar with the SEC proposal. Concerning the new shareholder rights proposals, I think you must be careful crossing the bridge on how much we get involved in managing companies. There should be a disclosure about people getting paid and a disclosure
林奇：我對證監會的提議不太熟悉。 關於新的股東權利提案， 我認為你在決定我們在多大程度上參與公司管理時， 必須小心謹慎。 應該披露人們獲得的報酬和披露
on how many shares they own. But I don't think we should decide whether they should make this acquisition or whether they should expand this plant. When you get too involved in running a company, it's complex. A lot of great companies have made a lot of decisions you haven't heard about because they decided not to do something, so the best decision they didn't do is to not do something. If they're under all this pressure from shareholders of what to do and what not to do, they'll take their eye off the ball and won't be able to run the business. The companies that do well look out five, six, or seven years. Some of the decisions they make might not be the right thing for the next year, but they are the right thing for years later. The more we concentrate on what they're doing and we keep commenting on it as outsiders, it's going to be run by an enormous committee and we'll get committee results. I don't think that'll help anybody. But disclosure of relevant facts like how many options people have, whether the options are at the market, and what they're paid - I think that's important.
在他們持有多少股份的問題上，我不認為我們應該決定他們是否應該進行收購或是否應該擴建工廠。當你過度參與公司的運營時，情況會變得複雜。許多偉大的公司做出了很多你沒有聽說過的決定，因為他們決定不做某些事，所以他們做出的最好的決定是不做某些事。如果他們受到股東關於應該做什麼和不應該做什麼的巨大壓力，他們就會偏離目標，無法經營企業。經營良好的公司會展望五年、六年或七年。他們做出的一些決定可能不是下一年的正確選擇，但卻是未來幾年的正確選擇。我們越是專注於他們的所作所為，並以局外人的身份不斷發表評論，公司就越會像一個龐大的委員會一樣運營，我們也會得到委員會的結果。我不認為這對任何人都會有幫助。但披露相關事實，如人們有多少期權、期權是否在市場上以及他們的薪酬——我认为這很重要。

Comments in a letter by the Chief Executive in the annual report are fairly new. It is a valuable piece of information. You don't realize these companies spend a lot of time on this letter. It's a serious document, and it's helpful to shareholders. Quarterly shareholder reports are excellent. Also, everybody in America can contact a company. Access is not limited to Fidelity and Platinum and Dreyfus. If you own 100 shares, you can call a company, and somebody will talk to you about it. People don't take advantage of that. These companies are willing to talk.
行政總裁在年度報告中的信件中加入評論，這是一個相當新的做法。這是一份寶貴的信息。您可能沒有意識到這些公司在撰寫這封信上投入了大量時間。這是一份嚴肅的文件，對股東很有幫助。季度股東報告非常棒。此外，美國的每個人都可以聯繫公司。訪問權不限於富達、鉑金和德雷福斯。如果您持有 100 股，您可以致電公司，就會有人與您談論此事。人們沒有充分利用这一点。這些公司很樂意與您交流。

On these quantitative and qualitative risk ratings, I think if it could be done, I think it might be possible. I'm a little confused about it. I'm not that current on it. But I think people should understand that certain stock funds, emerging growth funds, small cap funds, and investment companies with million of sales are more volatile than when you're buying major quality blue chip growth companies. Also, long-term bonds are more viable than medium-term bonds, which are more volatile than one-year bonds. These are things that should be explained to people. People should get a menu like you get at Howard Johnson's.
在這些定量和定性的風險評級中，我認為如果可以做到，我想這可能是可行的。我對此有點困惑。我對此並不了解。但我認為人們應該了解，某些股票基金、新興增長型基金、小型股基金和銷售額 百萬美元的投資公司比購買主要優質藍籌成長型公司時波動性更大。此外，長期債券比中期債券更可行，中期債券比一年期債券更不穩定。這些都是應該向人們解釋的事情。人們應該像在霍華德·約翰遜酒店一樣得到菜單。

Karmin: Several people in the audience asked how you view Fannie Mae's stocks and options today.
Karmin：現場有幾位觀眾詢問，你們如何看待房利美今天的股票和期權？

Lynch: l'd include Freddie Mac in that, too. Both companies have great businesses. People study chess. This would not be a good game to study for the stock market. In chess, an outstanding player beats a good player 1,000 times in a row. Everything's in front of you. All the moves are known. It's all technique. However, in poker and bridge, there are many uncertainties. You can play a hand exactly right and lose. You can say, "Well, I played it right. If I do it again, over a night, over a month...." That's not the stock market. The stock market is closer to poker than to any other game, and I think that's the important thing to know.
林奇：我还会把房利美也包括进去。这两家公司都有很棒的业务。人们研究国际象棋。这对于股市来说不是一个好的研究对象。在国际象棋中，一位杰出的棋手可以连续击败一位优秀的棋手 1,000 次。一切都在你眼前。所有行动都是已知的。这都是技巧。然而，在扑克和桥牌中，存在很多不确定性。你可以打出一手完美的牌，但仍然会输。你可以说：“好吧，我把它打好了。如果我再次打，在一个晚上，在一个月里……” 那不是股市。股市比任何其他游戏都更接近扑克，我认为这是需要知道的重点。

Fannie Mae has been like a 27 -card stud poker game. Cards keep getting turned over. We were not doing so well in Houston - this was 10 to 12 years ago - with these downs that a lot of people had in mortgages. People moved there for jobs. They brought their spouses along. The job left. They had no ties to those communities and they left. It was the same in Oklahoma or in
房利美就像一場 27 張牌的高撲克遊戲。牌不斷重開。十到十二年前，情況並不好 — 在休斯敦，很多人經歷了與抵押貸款相關的衰退。 有些人為了工作搬到那裡，並帶來了他們的配偶。工作沒了。他們與這些社區沒有聯繫，因此離開了。俄克拉荷馬州或

Alaska. When that card turned over, it was ugly. They were losing million a day. That was easy to remember. That wasn't too pleasant. They finally figured out we have a good business. We're extremely low cost. If we can match our liabilities and assets, make a small spread even when we have low cost, we can have a pretty good business. Then a card would turn over like when real estate prices started to go down in California. They started to go down in the Northeast. Then you'd say, "Oh, I better keep checking to see what foreclosures were like." If you keep watching the story, every year you get a chance to buy this again. Something will come up. People are worried rates would go down. Stocks went down because rates went down. Now that interest rates are going up, the stocks are going down because interest rates are going up. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are still doing great, and I think they'll be terrific stocks. They won't quadruple, but they're about undervalued now. They'd be good stocks to own for five years.
阿拉斯加。當那張卡片翻過來時，真是難看。他們每天都虧損 百萬美元。這很容易記住。這不是太令人愉快。他們終於發現我們有不錯的業務。我們的成本極低。如果我們能讓負債和資產相抵，即使在低成本的情況下也能賺取微薄的利潤，我們就能擁有相當不錯的業務。然後，當加州的房地產價格開始下跌時，就會出現一張翻轉的卡片。它們開始在東北部下跌。然後你會說：「喔，我最好繼續查看法拍屋的狀況。」如果你持續關注這個故事，你每年都會有機會再次買進。有些事情會發生。人們擔心利率會下降。股市下跌是因為利率下降。現在利率正在上升，股市正在下跌，因為利率正在上升。房利美和房地美的表現仍然很棒，而且我认为它們將會是絕佳的股票。它們不會翻四倍，但它們現在被低估了 。持有它們五年將會是很好的投資。

Karmin: This next question is from a fellow with a real problem. He says if the real secret of your success is following your daughters to the shopping mall for stock tips, what do we bachelors do?
Carmine：下一個問題來自一位有實際問題的傢伙。他說，如果真正成功的秘訣是跟著你的女兒們去購物中心獲得股票秘訣，那麼我們這些單身漢該怎麼辦呢？

Lynch: I think one of the reasons people get so depressed is they get away from children. On the weekends they read all these magazines, they need the newspapers, and they'd become economists and get so depressed. They're bullish if they take that lunch to work on Monday. You need to rent a 12 -year-old on the weekend. They don't know about the problem of the ozone layer disappearing and all these terrible things we think of all the time and we get so depressed about. They don't know about how second basemen and shortstops get paid million and they can't throw to first base on a bounce. You need to find a 12 -year-old and rent him for the weekend and follow this boy or girl around and see where they're shopping.
林區：我想人們之所以會這麼沮喪，其中一個原因是他們遠離了孩子。在週末，他們閱讀所有這些雜誌，他們需要報紙，他們會變成經濟學家，並因此非常沮喪。如果他們在星期一帶那個午餐去上班，他們就會看漲。你需要在週末租一個 12 歲的孩子。他們不知道臭氧層消失的問題，以及所有我們一直在思考的可怕事情，我們對此感到非常沮喪。他們不知道二壘手和游擊手是如何獲得 百萬美元的報酬，而且他們無法在一壘彈跳接球。你需要找一個 12 歲的孩子，在週末租他，跟著這個男孩或女孩四處走動，看看他們在哪里購物。

Our kids love Body Shop. I bought it, and I think it will be a good stock. Our oldest daughter, Mary, likes Ann Taylor. She had to dress up to go to work when she was working a summer in a consulting firm. She thought Ann Taylor's prices were good and the quality was good, and it was a great stock pick. My wife, Carolyn, is an extremely good shopper. She almost got a black belt in shopping. Because of the children, she didn't quite finish that, but she's a good shopper. She's given me some great tips, too. I think either you must use your spouse, or you must go out on your own.
我們的小孩都很喜歡 The Body Shop。我買了它的股票，我認為它會是個好的投資。我大女兒，瑪麗，喜歡 Ann Taylor。她在一家諮詢公司實習的時候，上班必須穿著正裝。她覺得 Ann Taylor 的價格和品質都不錯，而且股票也有很大漲幅。我的妻子，凱洛琳，是個非常會購物的女人。她差點就拿到購物的黑帶了，因為我們有孩子，所以她沒能完成這個目標。但她仍然是個很好的購物者，也給了我很多很棒的購物建議。我覺得夫妻之間，一方應該負責購物，或者夫妻一起共同承擔。

Once the biggest position in my fund was Hanes, which owned L'eggs. It was a huge stock. Consolidated Foods eventually bought it. Hanes had a monopoly on L'eggs, and L'eggs is a big company. I knew somebody would come along with a new product. Kayser-Roth introduced "No Nonsense." I was worried this "No Nonsense" thing was better, and I couldn't quite figure out what was going on. I went to the supermarket and bought 62 pairs of "No Nonsense." I bought different colors, different shapes. They must have wondered what house I came from. I brought them into the office and passed that to anybody, male or female, who wanted one of these things. Just take them all and tell me how it is. They came about in about three weeks and said it's not as good. That's what research is. That's all it was. I held on to Hanes, and the stock was a huge stock. That's what it's about.
漢斯公司曾經是我基金中最大的持股公司，它擁有 L’eggs 這個品牌。這是一支巨型股票。最後被 Consolidated Foods 收購了。漢斯公司壟斷了 L'eggs 這個品牌，而 L’eggs 是一家大公司。我知道有人會帶著新產品出現。Kayser-Roth 推出了「No Nonsense」。我擔心這個「No Nonsense」會更好，但我搞不清楚究竟發生了什麼事。我去超市買了 62 雙「No Nonsense」。我買了不同的顏色和形狀，他們一定想知道我住在哪裡。我把它們帶到辦公室，只要有男性或女性想要這些東西就讓他們拿走。拿走所有東西，然後告訴我感覺如何。大約三週後他們回來並說它並沒有那麼好。這就是研究。事情就這麼簡單。我持有漢斯公司的股票，而這是一支巨型股票。這就是它所有的本質。