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估值  Valuation

我们使用现金流折现法（DCF）和相对估值法进行估值，得出的目标价是每股 1,993.59元（人民币），较 2023 年 12 月贵州茅台每股 1526.45 元（人民币）收盘价上涨 30.60 % 30.60 % 30.60%30.60 \%。
We use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method and relative valuation method to value and arrive at a target price of RMB1,993.59 per share, up from Kweichow Moutai's closing price of RMB1,526.45 per share in December 2023. 30.60 % 30.60 % 30.60%30.60 \%

息税前利润  EBIT

近三年，贵州茅台营业总收入和总成本呈现持续增长态势，分别从 2021 年的 1094.64亿元和 89.83 亿元增长至 2023 年的 1505.60 亿元和 118.67 亿元。尽管经营费用有所波动，但 EBIT 仍与收入和成本保持一致的增长趋势，从 2021 年的 735.97 亿元增长至 2023 年的 1017.33 亿元。因此我们预测 2024 年贵州茅台的 EBIT 值为 1176.26 亿元。
In the past three years, Kweichow Moutai's total operating income and total cost have shown a continuous growth trend, increasing from 109.464 billion yuan and 8.983 billion yuan in 2021 to 150.560 billion yuan and 11.867 billion yuan in 2023, respectively. Despite fluctuations in operating expenses, EBIT continued to grow in line with revenue and costs, from $73,597 million in 2021 to $101,733 million in 2023. Therefore, we forecast Kweichow Moutai's EBIT value in 2024 to be 117.626 billion yuan.
单位: 万元  Unit: 10,000 yuan 2021 年 A  2021 A 2022 年 A  2022 A 2023 年 A  2023 A 2024 年 E  2024 E
营业收入  Operating income 10 , 946 , 427.86 10 , 946 , 427.86 10,946,427.8610,946,427.86 12 , 755 , 395.94 12 , 755 , 395.94 12,755,395.9412,755,395.94 15 , 056 , 033.03 15 , 056 , 033.03 15,056,033.0315,056,033.03
营业成本  Cost of Doing Business 898 , 337.78 898 , 337.78 898,337.78898,337.78 1 , 009 , 346.86 1 , 009 , 346.86 1,009,346.861,009,346.86 1 , 186 , 727.39 1 , 186 , 727.39 1,186,727.391,186,727.39
经营费用  Operating expenses 6 , 402 , 867.61 6 , 402 , 867.61 6,402,867.616,402,867.61 3 , 669 , 859.58 3 , 669 , 859.58 3,669,859.583,669,859.58 6 , 659 , 324.77 6 , 659 , 324.77 6,659,324.776,659,324.77
息税前利润 73,59698 86,23809 101,73288 117,62617
单位: 万元 2021 A 2022 A 2023 A 2024 E 营业收入 10,946,427.86 12,755,395.94 15,056,033.03 营业成本 898,337.78 1,009,346.86 1,186,727.39 经营费用 6,402,867.61 3,669,859.58 6,659,324.77 EBIT 73,59698 86,23809 101,73288 117,62617| 单位: 万元 | 2021 A | 2022 A | 2023 A | 2024 E | | :--- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | | 营业收入 | $10,946,427.86$ | $12,755,395.94$ | $15,056,033.03$ | | | 营业成本 | $898,337.78$ | $1,009,346.86$ | $1,186,727.39$ | | | 经营费用 | $6,402,867.61$ | $3,669,859.58$ | $6,659,324.77$ | | | EBIT | 73,59698 | 86,23809 | 101,73288 | 117,62617 |

税率  rate

近年来，贵州茅台的税负基数呈现上升趋势，对应缴纳的税额逐渐增加。截至2024年 6 月，贵州茅台的税率为 25.04 % 25.04 % 25.04%25.04 \%，这表明公司需要支付 25.04 % 25.04 % 25.04%25.04 \%的税费在利润总额中。因此，我们预测贵州茅台 2024 年税率稳定在 25 % 25 % 25%25 \%。
In recent years, the tax base of Kweichow Moutai has shown an upward trend, and the amount of tax payable has gradually increased. As of June 2024, Kweichow Moutai's tax rate is 25.04 % 25.04 % 25.04%25.04 \% , which indicates that the tax that the company needs to pay 25.04 % 25.04 % 25.04%25.04 \% is in the total profit. Therefore, we forecast Kweichow Moutai's tax rate to stabilize in 25 % 25 % 25%25 \% 2024.

总市值  Total market capitalization

通过收集和汇总贵州茅台近三年的年总市值（如下图所示），我们可以发现，可能由于宏观经济形势及市场因素影响，该公司近三年总市值总体成下降趋势，从 2021 年 2.57 万亿元下降至 2023 年的 2.17 万亿元。因此，我们预测 2024 年年总市值为 2.1 万亿元。
By collecting and summarizing the total annual market value of Kweichow Moutai in the past three years (as shown in the figure below), we can find that due to the impact of the macroeconomic situation and market factors, the company's total market value in the past three years has generally shown a downward trend, from 2.57 trillion yuan in 2021 to 2.17 trillion yuan in 2023. As a result, we forecast a total annual market capitalization of 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024.

加权平均资本成本  Weighted average cost of capital

通过对贵州茅台的 EBIT、税率、总市值等数据进行汇总和预测，我们得出的加权平均资本成本 ( WACC ) ( WACC ) (WACC)(\mathrm{WACC})为 4.2 % 4.2 % 4.2%4.2 \%, 利用公式 V L = F C F F W A C C = E B I T ( 1 − τ c ) W A C C V L = F C F F W A C C = E B I T 1 − τ c W A C C V_(L)=(FCFF)/(WACC)=(EBIT(1-tau_(c)))/(WACC)\mathrm{V}_{\mathrm{L}}=\frac{F C F F}{W A C C}=\frac{E B I T\left(1-\tau_{c}\right)}{W A C C}
By summarizing and forecasting Kweichow Moutai's EBIT, tax rate, total market capitalization, and other data, we arrive at a weighted average cost ( WACC ) ( WACC ) (WACC)(\mathrm{WACC}) of capital that uses 4.2 % 4.2 % 4.2%4.2 \% the formula V L = F C F F W A C C = E B I T ( 1 − τ c ) W A C C V L = F C F F W A C C = E B I T 1 − τ c W A C C V_(L)=(FCFF)/(WACC)=(EBIT(1-tau_(c)))/(WACC)\mathrm{V}_{\mathrm{L}}=\frac{F C F F}{W A C C}=\frac{E B I T\left(1-\tau_{c}\right)}{W A C C}
息税前利润
税率  rate 11 , 762 , 617 11 , 762 , 617 11,762,61711,762,617
总市值  Total market capitalization 25 % 25 % 25%25 \%
WACC 210000000
0.042009346
EBIT 税率 11,762,617 总市值 25% WACC 210000000 0.042009346| | EBIT | | :--- | :---: | | 税率 | $11,762,617$ | | 总市值 | $25 \%$ | | WACC | 210000000 | | | 0.042009346 |

相对估值  Relative valuation

由于贵州茅台历史悠久专且注于高端白酒的生产与销售，我们将其与国内白酒行业进行比较。我们收集整理近三年同行业各种估值指标，如下表所示。
Since Kweichow Moutai has a long history and focuses on the production and sales of high-end liquor, we compare it with the domestic liquor industry. We have collected and sorted out various valuation indicators of the same industry in the past three years, as shown in the table below.
从下图中可以明显看出，贵州茅台的预测每股收益、预测市盈率、预测净利润、预测净利润增长率均高于同行业平均水平。我们强调，该公司 2024 年预测的市盈率为 22.26，预测的市盈率增长比率（PEG）为1.45，且其交易价格相对于国内同行有所溢价（2024年预测同行平均市盈率为 18.73 ）。
It can be clearly seen from the chart below that Kweichow Moutai's forecast earnings per share, forecast price-earnings ratio, predicted net profit, and predicted net profit growth rate are all higher than the industry average. We highlight that the company's 2024 P/E forecast is 22.26, with a P/E growth ratio (PEG) of 1.45, and that it is trading at a premium to its domestic peers (18.73 in 2024).

预测每股收益（元）  Forecast earnings per share (RMB) 预测市盈率  Forecast P/E ratio 预测净利润（亿元）  Forecast net profit (100 million yuan) 预测净利润增长率  Forecast net profit growth rate
2023 年 A  2023 A 2024 年 E  2024 E 2023 年 A  2023 A 2024 年 E  2024 E 2023 年 A  2023 A 2024 年 E  2024 E 2023 年 A  2023 A 2024 年 E  2024 E
贵州茅台  Kweichow Moutai 59.49 68.58 29.01 22.26 775.21 861.45 18.58 % 18.58 % 18.58%18.58 \% 15.27 % 15.27 % 15.27%15.27 \%
五粮液  Wuliangye 7.78 8.50 18.03 16.77 315.21 329.81 12.70 % 12.70 % 12.70%12.70 \% 9.17 % 9.17 % 9.17%9.17 \%
山西汾酒  Shanxi Fenjiu 8.56 10.24 26.97 18.41 104.59 124.87 28.22 % 28.22 % 28.22%28.22 \% 19.63 % 19.63 % 19.63%19.63 \%
沪州老窑  Huzhou old kiln 9.00 9.79 19.94 13.25 132.89 144.11 27.65 % 27.65 % 27.65%27.65 \% 8.79 % 8.79 % 8.79%8.79 \%
洋河股份  Yanghe shares 6.65 5.76 16.53 14.48 100.21 86.76 6.72 % 6.72 % 6.72%6.72 \% − 13.38 % − 13.38 % -13.38%-13.38 \%
古井贡酒  Gujing Gongjiu 8.68 10.73 26.81 16.31 47.26 56.73 45.34 % 45.34 % 45.34%45.34 \% 23.62 % 23.62 % 23.62%23.62 \%
今世缘  The fate of this world 2.50 2.92 19.50 15.24 31.36 36.66 25.30 % 25.30 % 25.30%25.30 \% 16.91 % 16.91 % 16.91%16.91 \%
迎驾贡酒  Welcome to the tribute wine 2.86 3.43 23.18 15.69 22.93 27.47 34.21 % 34.21 % 34.21%34.21 \% 20.05 % 20.05 % 20.05%20.05 \%
百润股份  Bairun shares 0.77 0.75 31.92 35.83 8.07 7.81 54.88 % 54.88 % 54.88%54.88 \% − 3.47 % − 3.47 % -3.47%-3.47 \%
水井坊  Shuijingfang 2.60 2.82 22.62 19.07 12.69 13.77 4.36 % 4.36 % 4.36%4.36 \% 8.52 % 8.52 % 8.52%8.52 \%
行业平均值  Industry averages 10.89 12.35 23.45 18.73 155.04 168.95 25.80 % 25.80 % 25.80%25.80 \% 10.51 % 10.51 % 10.51%10.51 \%
预测每股收益（元） 预测市盈率 预测净利润（亿元） 预测净利润增长率 2023 A 2024 E 2023 A 2024 E 2023 A 2024 E 2023 A 2024 E 贵州茅台 59.49 68.58 29.01 22.26 775.21 861.45 18.58% 15.27% 五粮液 7.78 8.50 18.03 16.77 315.21 329.81 12.70% 9.17% 山西汾酒 8.56 10.24 26.97 18.41 104.59 124.87 28.22% 19.63% 沪州老窑 9.00 9.79 19.94 13.25 132.89 144.11 27.65% 8.79% 洋河股份 6.65 5.76 16.53 14.48 100.21 86.76 6.72% -13.38% 古井贡酒 8.68 10.73 26.81 16.31 47.26 56.73 45.34% 23.62% 今世缘 2.50 2.92 19.50 15.24 31.36 36.66 25.30% 16.91% 迎驾贡酒 2.86 3.43 23.18 15.69 22.93 27.47 34.21% 20.05% 百润股份 0.77 0.75 31.92 35.83 8.07 7.81 54.88% -3.47% 水井坊 2.60 2.82 22.62 19.07 12.69 13.77 4.36% 8.52% 行业平均值 10.89 12.35 23.45 18.73 155.04 168.95 25.80% 10.51%| | 预测每股收益（元） | | 预测市盈率 | | 预测净利润（亿元） | | 预测净利润增长率 | | | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | | 2023 A | 2024 E | 2023 A | 2024 E | 2023 A | 2024 E | 2023 A | 2024 E | | 贵州茅台 | 59.49 | 68.58 | 29.01 | 22.26 | 775.21 | 861.45 | $18.58 \%$ | $15.27 \%$ | | 五粮液 | 7.78 | 8.50 | 18.03 | 16.77 | 315.21 | 329.81 | $12.70 \%$ | $9.17 \%$ | | 山西汾酒 | 8.56 | 10.24 | 26.97 | 18.41 | 104.59 | 124.87 | $28.22 \%$ | $19.63 \%$ | | 沪州老窑 | 9.00 | 9.79 | 19.94 | 13.25 | 132.89 | 144.11 | $27.65 \%$ | $8.79 \%$ | | 洋河股份 | 6.65 | 5.76 | 16.53 | 14.48 | 100.21 | 86.76 | $6.72 \%$ | $-13.38 \%$ | | 古井贡酒 | 8.68 | 10.73 | 26.81 | 16.31 | 47.26 | 56.73 | $45.34 \%$ | $23.62 \%$ | | 今世缘 | 2.50 | 2.92 | 19.50 | 15.24 | 31.36 | 36.66 | $25.30 \%$ | $16.91 \%$ | | 迎驾贡酒 | 2.86 | 3.43 | 23.18 | 15.69 | 22.93 | 27.47 | $34.21 \%$ | $20.05 \%$ | | 百润股份 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 31.92 | 35.83 | 8.07 | 7.81 | $54.88 \%$ | $-3.47 \%$ | | 水井坊 | 2.60 | 2.82 | 22.62 | 19.07 | 12.69 | 13.77 | $4.36 \%$ | $8.52 \%$ | | 行业平均值 | 10.89 | 12.35 | 23.45 | 18.73 | 155.04 | 168.95 | $25.80 \%$ | $10.51 \%$ |
基于整体平均市盈率为 18.73，我们的相对估值目标价为 1993.59 元，这也同样支持我们的现金流折现分析。
Based on an overall average P/E ratio of 18.73, our relative valuation TP of $1993.59 also supports our discounted cash flow analysis.