Nikkei’s Message to Japan’s New Leader: Higher Taxes Are Bad for Stocks
日经对日本新领导人的信息：提高税收对股票不利

“The Ishiba administration is switching over to anti-Abenomics,” said Takuji Aida, an economist at Crédit Agricole in Tokyo. He said the Ishiba government would seek to raise taxes and curtail spending—the opposite of what Abe generally pursued as prime minister from 2012 to 2020. As a result, Aida said, “Japan’s economy will decelerate, the inflation rate will rapidly shrink and we will feel the risk of deflation.”
“石破政府正在转向反安倍经济学，”东京农业信贷银行的经济学家相田拓司表示。他说，石破政府将寻求增税和削减开支——这与安倍在 2012 年至 2020 年担任首相期间所追求的正好相反。因此，相田表示，“日本经济将放缓，通货膨胀率将迅速下降，我们将感受到通货紧缩的风险。”

Ishiba said Monday that he would call an election for Parliament’s more-powerful lower house on Oct. 27. His ruling Liberal Democratic Party is generally expected to retain its majority, allowing Ishiba to stay on as prime minister. However, many analysts expect opposition parties to pick up seats owing to political-fund scandals involving LDP lawmakers.
石破在周一表示，他将于 10 月 27 日为国会更强大的下议院召集选举。他的执政党自由民主党普遍预计将保持多数席位，这将使石破继续担任首相。然而，许多分析师预计，由于涉及自民党议员的政治资金丑闻，反对党将获得席位。

Japan has the equivalent of some $8 trillion in government bonds outstanding. Over the decades, Ishiba has tended to sympathize with Ministry of Finance officials who believe the bonds represent a potential debt bomb and politicians need to restrain spending to keep it from exploding. 
日本的政府债券未偿还总额相当于约 8 万亿美元。几十年来，石破一直倾向于同情那些认为这些债券代表潜在债务炸弹的财政部官员，并认为政治家需要控制支出以防止其爆炸。

Abe, especially in his final years, leaned toward the view that Japan could never default on its bonds because it issues them in its own currency. It was one of many issues over which the two politicians tussled.
安倍，尤其是在他最后的几年，倾向于认为日本永远不会违约其债券，因为它以自己的货币发行债券。这是两位政治家争论的众多问题之一。

Stocks more than doubled during Abe’s time in office and continued rising under his successors as they pumped money into the economy to address the pandemic and bolster Japan’s military. 
在安倍任职期间，股票价格翻了一番以上，并在其继任者的领导下继续上涨，他们向经济注入资金以应对疫情并增强日本的军事力量。

In his memoirs, published after his assassination in July 2022, Abe said Ministry of Finance officials would rather see the nation destroyed than see their powers diminished. His views were inherited by the woman he had wanted to become prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, who has said that when the government issues more bonds, it means the assets of the people are increasing.
在他于 2022 年 7 月被刺杀后发表的回忆录中，安倍表示，财政部官员宁愿看到国家被毁灭，也不愿看到他们的权力被削弱。他的观点被他希望成为首相的女性高市早苗继承，她曾表示，当政府发行更多债券时，这意味着人民的资产在增加。

Japanese stocks surged on Friday when it seemed Takaichi might win the ruling-party vote and become prime minister. After Ishiba pulled out a close victory, they went into reverse.  
日本股市在周五大幅上涨，当时似乎高市早苗可能赢得执政党投票并成为首相。在石破茂获得微弱胜利后，股市开始回落。

During his campaign for the leadership, Ishiba said at a candidate debate, “I believe there is still room to increase the tax on corporations.” He said his views on income taxes were the same, namely that some people had the ability to bear a greater burden.
在竞选领导职位期间，石破在候选人辩论中表示：“我认为还有提高企业税的空间。”他表示自己对所得税的看法也是一样，即一些人有能力承担更大的负担。

Ishiba has yet to outline his economic plans in detail, but he has said he wants to lift wages and encourage people to put more of their savings into stocks rather than low-yielding bank accounts. On a Fuji TV program Sunday, he said people were reacting to snippets of his remarks without understanding these goals.
石破尚未详细阐述他的经济计划，但他表示希望提高工资，并鼓励人们将更多的储蓄投入股票，而不是低收益的银行账户。在周日的富士电视台节目中，他表示人们对他言论的片段做出了反应，却没有理解这些目标。

He also backed away from earlier suggestions that he wanted the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, saying monetary easing was still needed because Japan hasn’t yet fully escaped deflation.
他还撤回了之前关于希望日本银行提高利率的建议，表示由于日本尚未完全摆脱通货紧缩，仍然需要货币宽松。

The Nikkei Stock Average closed down 4.8% Monday at 37919.55. 
日经股票平均指数周一收盘下跌 4.8%，报 37919.55。

Some analysts said Ishiba would move to reassure voters and investors ahead of the election. “He will likely focus on driving safely for the time being and refrain from making comments that would cause negative surprises to the stock market,” said Rakuten Securities strategist Masayuki Kubota.
一些分析师表示，石破将会在选举前安抚选民和投资者。“他可能会暂时专注于安全驾驶，避免发表可能对股市造成负面影响的评论，”乐天证券策略师久保田雅之说。

Write to Peter Landers at Peter.Landers@wsj.com and Megumi Fujikawa at megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com
写信给彼得·兰德斯，邮箱是 Peter.Landers@wsj.com 和藤川惠美，邮箱是 megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com