The Calm Bull 冷静的公牛

Executive Summary: 执行摘要：

• Both Ethereum and Bitcoin markets are showing relative strength after a lengthy post-ATH consolidation, although prices have remained choppy and sideways since March.
  尽管自 3 月份以来价格一直波动且横盘整理，但以太坊和比特币市场在经历了 ATH 后的长期盘整后都表现出相对强势。
• The SEC has surprised the market with the approval of the Ethereum Spot ETFs, resulting in a +20% rally in the ETH price.
  美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 对以太坊现货 ETF 的批准令市场感到惊讶，导致 ETH 价格上涨 20% 以上。
• Bitcoin US Spot ETFs netflows have once again turned positive after four weeks of net outflows, suggesting a return of TradFi demand.
  比特币美国现货 ETF 净流量在经历四个星期的净流出后再次转正，表明 TradFi 需求有所回升。
• Long-Term Holder spending pressure has cooled off significantly, with investors back to accumulation patterns, suggesting volatility is required to motivate the next wave.
  长期持有者的支出压力已显着降温，投资者回归积累模式，这表明需要波动性来推动下一波浪潮。

A Coiling Spring 卷簧

After recording the deepest correction on a closing basis since the FTX lows (-20.3%), Bitcoin has recovered back towards the ATH, reaching $71k on 20-May. From a comparative point of view, the drawdowns pattern across the 2023-24 uptrend appears to be remarkably similar to the 2015-17 bull market.
在录得自 FTX 低点 (-20.3%) 以来收盘价最深调整后，比特币已恢复至 ATH，于 5 月 20 日达到 7.1 万美元。从比较的角度来看，2023-24 年上升趋势的回撤模式似乎与 2015-17 年牛市非常相似。

The 2015-17 uptrend occurred during Bitcoin’s infancy when no derivative instruments were available for the asset class. The parallel we can draw to the current market structure suggests that the 2023-24 uptrend may be a largely spot-driven market. This view is supported by the launch and inflows into the US Spot ETFs.
2015-17 年的上升趋势发生在比特币的起步阶段，当时该资产类别还没有可用的衍生工具。我们可以与当前的市场结构进行比较，表明 2023-24 年的上升趋势可能主要是现货驱动的市场。美国现货 ETF 的推出和资金流入支持了这一观点。

Ethereum has also seen notably shallower corrections since the FTX lows compared to prior cycles. This structure infers a degree of increasing market resilience is developing between each successive pullback, alongside a reduction in downside volatility.
自 FTX 低点以来，与之前的周期相比，以太坊的调整也明显较浅。这种结构表明，在每次连续回调之间，市场弹性正在一定程度地增强，同时下行波动性也在减少。

However, it is worth highlighting that Ethereum has experienced a slower recovery relative to Bitcoin. ETH has also notably under-performed compared to other leading crypto assets over the last 2 years, manifesting in a weaker ETH/BTC ratio.
然而，值得强调的是，相对于比特币，以太坊的复苏速度较慢。过去两年，与其他领先的加密资产相比，ETH 的表现也明显不佳，表现为 ETH/BTC 比率较弱。

Nevertheless, the approval of US Spot ETFs this week came as a widely unexpected development and may provide the necessary catalyst to stimulate strength in the ETH/BTC ratio.
尽管如此，本周美国现货 ETF 的批准是一个普遍出乎意料的进展，可能为刺激 ETH/BTC 比率走强提供必要的催化剂。

If we examine the rolling performance of the Bitcoin market across weekly 🟥, monthly 🟦 and quarterly 🟧 timeframes, we can see generally strong performance, recording values of +3.3%, +7.4%, and +25.6%, respectively.
如果我们检查比特币市场在每周 🟥、每月 🟦 和每季度 🟧 时间范围内的滚动表现，我们可以看到总体表现强劲，分别录得 +3.3%、+7.4% 和 +25.6% 的值。

To highlight periods of particularly strong price performance, we can count the number of trading days within a 90d window where performance across all three timeframes exceeds +20%. Only 5 days through the last quarter have reached this threshold so far.
为了突出价格表现特别强劲的时期，我们可以计算 90 天窗口内所有三个时间范围的表现都超过 +20% 的交易日数。到目前为止，上个季度只有 5 天达到了这一阈值。

In prior cycles, this count reached between 18 and 26-days, which suggests the current market may be somewhat more measured relative to historical bull markets.
在之前的周期中，这一计数达到 18 至 26 天之间，这表明当前市场相对于历史牛市可能更加谨慎。

We can assess Ethereum under a similar framework and can see the dramatic impact of the ETF approvals. The news motivated almost instantaneous buy-side pressure, with all three timeframes printing their first >20% price movement since late 2021.
我们可以在类似的框架下评估以太坊，并可以看到 ETF 批准的巨大影响。这一消息几乎立即引发了买方压力，所有三个时间框架都出现了自 2021 年底以来首次超过 20% 的价格变动。

If we consider the sizeable impact and influence that spot ETFs have had on Bitcoin since the turn of the year, the ETH/BTC trading pair may be exhibiting early signs of a more promising road ahead.
如果我们考虑到年初以来现货 ETF 对比特币产生的巨大影响和影响，那么 ETH/BTC 交易对可能正在展现出更光明前景的早期迹象。

ETF Buyer Comeback ETF买家卷土重来

The Bitcoin price decisively broke to a new ATH of $73k in early March, at the same time as long-term holders were divesting a significant volume of supply. This sell-side created an overhang of supply, leading to a period of correction and consolidation. Over time, lower prices and seller exhaustion started to give way to a regime of re-accumulation.
3 月初，比特币价格果断突破 7.3 万美元新高，同时长期持有者正在抛售大量供应。这种卖方造成了供应过剩，导致了一段时期的调整和盘整。随着时间的推移，较低的价格和卖家的疲惫开始让位于重新积累的机制。

We can see this playing out in the Bitcoin ETF flows which transitioned into a regime of net outflows throughout the month of April. As the market sold off to the local low around $57.5k, the ETFs saw a large net outflow of -$148M/day. However, this turned out to be a form of micro-capitulation, and the trend has reversed sharply since.
我们可以在比特币 ETF 流量中看到这一点，比特币 ETF 流量在整个 4 月份转变为净流出状态。随着市场抛售至 57,500 美元左右的当地低点，ETF 出现每天 - 1.48 亿美元的大量净流出。然而，这被证明是一种微投降，此后趋势急剧逆转。

Last week, the ETFs experienced a remarkable net inflow of $242M/day, suggesting a return back into buy-side demand. Considering the natural daily sell pressure by miners since the halving of $32M/Day, this ETFs buy pressure is almost 8 times larger. This highlights the size and scale of the ETF impact, but also the relatively small influence of the halving moving forwards.
上周，ETF 经历了每天 2.42 亿美元的显着净流入，表明买方需求回归。考虑到自 3200 万美元/天减半以来矿商每天的自然抛售压力，该 ETF 的购买压力几乎是原来的 8 倍。这凸显了 ETF 影响的规模和规模，但也凸显了减半的影响相对较小。

Back to Euphoria 回到欣快感

The percentage of the circulating supply in profit provides valuable information over each market cycle, and a set of repeating patterns has emerged. During the early stages of a bull market, as price attempts to reclaim the prior ATH, the percent of supply in profit breaks above its statistical threshold of ~90%. This signals the start of the Pre-Euphoria phase, and it historically entices investors to take profit from the table.
流通供应占利润的百分比提供了每个市场周期的宝贵信息，并且出现了一组重复模式。在牛市的早期阶段，当价格试图收回之前的 ATH 时，利润中的供给百分比突破了约 90% 的统计阈值。这标志着前兴奋阶段的开始，从历史上看，它会吸引投资者从赌桌上获利了结。

This sell-side pressure is usually attributed to long-term holders, who seize the opportunity to exit the market at elevated prices, especially after shouldering the downside volatility throughout the previous bear market.
这种卖方压力通常归因于长期持有者，他们抓住机会以高价退出市场，特别是在承受了整个熊市的下行波动之后。

As the market breaks towards a new ATH and price discovery, it enters the Euphoria phase, where the supply in profit starts to fluctuate around the 90% level for the next 6-12 months. The current euphoria phase is relatively young but has been active for around 2.5 months, with 93.4% of supply held in profit at the time of writing.
随着市场突破新的 ATH 和价格发现，它进入欣快阶段，在接下来的 6-12 个月内，利润供给开始在 90% 的水平左右波动。当前的欣快阶段相对较新，但已活跃了约 2.5 个月，截至撰写本文时，93.4% 的供应量处于盈利状态。

Another tool we can use to monitor corrections is the magnitude of unrealized losses held by investors. Given unrealised losses near ATHs represent 'local top buyers', we can evaluate the proportion of the supply which falls into loss 90d rolling window. This seeks to assess the percentage of coins which have lost their “in-profit” status compared to the local price peak.
我们可以用来监控修正的另一个工具是投资者持有的未实现损失的规模。鉴于 ATH 附近的未实现损失代表“本地顶级买家”，我们可以评估落入损失 90 天滚动窗口的供应比例。其目的是评估与当地价格峰值相比失去“盈利”状态的代币的百分比。

Mechanically, these deep declines occur as new capital enters the network, absorbing sell-side pressure distributed during a local uptrend, which subsequently falls into loss during the following correction.
从机械上讲，这些深度下跌是在新资本进入网络时发生的，吸收了局部上升趋势期间分布的卖方压力，随后在接下来的调整中陷入损失。

The depth of these drawdowns throughout the current uptrend is also comparatively similar to the 2015-2017 bull market, again suggesting a relatively robust market. This indicates that despite local peaks being set, they do not appear to have an excessive volume of coins bought at too high of a price.
当前上升趋势中的回撤深度也与 2015-2017 年牛市较为相似，再次表明市场相对强劲。这表明，尽管设定了局部峰值，但他们似乎并没有以过高的价格购买过多的代币。

Diamond Hands in Charge 钻石之手负责

As prices appreciate in response to renewed buy-side pressure, the importance of the opposing side, the sell-side pressure, from Long-Term Holders grows in tandem. Therefore, we can evaluate the unrealized profit of the LTH cohort as a measure of their incentive to sell, and their realized profit to assess actual sell-side.
随着价格因新的买方压力而上涨，来自长期持有者的对手（即卖方压力）的重要性也随之增长。因此，我们可以通过评估LTH群体的未实现利润来衡量他们的出售动机，并通过他们的已实现利润来评估实际的卖方。

First, the MVRV Ratio for LTHs reflects their average unrealized profit multiple. Historically, the transition phase between a bear and a bull market sees LTH trade above 1.5, but below 3.5 🟧, and can last for one to two years.
首先，LTH 的 MVRV 比率反映了其平均未实现利润倍数。从历史上看，熊市和牛市之间的过渡阶段是 LTH 交易在 1.5 以上，但低于 3.5 🟧，并且可持续一到两年。

If the market uptrend remains sustainable, forming new ATHs in the process, the unrealized profit held by LTHs will expand. This will substantially elevate their incentive to sell, and eventually leads to a degree of sell-side pressure that gradually exhausts the demand side.
如果市场上涨趋势持续，并在此过程中形成新的ATH，则LTH持有的未实现利润将会扩大。这将大大提高他们的销售动机，并最终导致一定程度的卖方压力，逐渐耗尽需求方。

To close out this assessment, we will evaluate the spending rate of LTHs by via the 30-day net position change in their supply. During the run-up to the March ATH, the market experienced its first major tranche of LTH distribution.
为了结束本次评估，我们将通过 LTH 供应量的 30 天净头寸变化来评估 LTH 的支出率。在 3 月份 ATH 的准备阶段，市场经历了第一批主要的 LTH 分配。

During the last two bull markets, the LTH net distribution rate reached a substantial 836k to 971k BTC/month. At present, the net sell pressure peaked at 519k BTC/month in late March, with approximately 20% of this originating from Grayscale ETF holders.
在过去的两次牛市中，LTH 的净分配率达到了 83.6 万至 97.1 万 BTC/月。目前，净抛售压力在 3 月底达到峰值 51.9 万 BTC/月，其中约 20% 来自灰度 ETF 持有者。

This high-spending regime was followed by a cooling-off period, with a local regime of accumulation that saw aggregate LTH supply grow by around +12k BTC/Month.
这种高支出状态之后是一段冷静期，局部积累状态导致 LTH 总供应量每月增长约 +12k BTC。

Summary and Conclusions 总结和结论

In the wake of significant long-term holder investor distribution into the $73k ATH, sell-side pressure has noticeably contracted. The Long-Term Holders have since started to re-accumulate coins for the first time since December 2023. Alongside this, the spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen a clear resurgence in demand, experiencing positive inflows, reflecting a substantial volume of buy-side pressure.
在大量长期持有者投资者将资金分配到 73,000 美元的 ATH 后，卖方压力明显缩小。此后，长期持有者自 2023 年 12 月以来首次开始重新积累比特币。除此之外，现货比特币 ETF 的需求也明显回升，出现积极的资金流入，反映出巨大的买方压力。

Furthermore, a levelling of the playing field between Bitcoin and Ethereum has occurred, with the approval of US Spot ETFs for Ethereum by the SEC. This further solidifies the ever-growing adoption of digital assets throughout the traditional financial system, and is a major step forward for the industry.
此外，随着 SEC 批准美国以太坊现货 ETF，比特币和以太坊之间的竞争环境已经变得公平。这进一步巩固了数字资产在整个传统金融体系中不断增长的采用，是该行业向前迈出的重要一步。