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Another brick in the wall (Part 4)
牆上的另一塊磚頭(第四部分)

AI could create 78 million more jobs than it eliminates by 2030—report
報告指出,到 2030 年,人工智慧創造的工作機會將比減少的更多,多達 7800 萬個

As AGI talk sparks job loss fears, new WEF report projects AI-driven net job growth by 2030.
隨著人工智慧(AGI)的討論引發人們對失業的擔憂,世界經濟論壇(WEF)的一份新報告預測,到 2030 年,人工智慧將帶動就業淨增長。

Benj Edwards | 145
BENJ EDWARDS – 2025 年 1 月 11 日 上午 1:52 145
Credit: Moor Studio via Getty Images
圖片來源:Getty Images,Moor Studio

On Wednesday, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released its Future of Jobs Report 2025, with CNN immediately highlighting the finding that 40 percent of companies plan workforce reductions due to AI automation. But the report's broader analysis paints a far more nuanced picture than CNN's headline suggests: It finds that AI could create 170 million new jobs globally while eliminating 92 million positions, resulting in a net increase of 78 million jobs by 2030.
世界經濟論壇(WEF)週三發布了《2025 年就業前景報告》,CNN 隨即報導指出,40%的公司計劃因人工智慧自動化而裁員。但該報告的更全面分析呈現出比 CNN 標題所暗示的更為細膩的圖像:報告發現,人工智慧可能在全球創造 1.7 億個新的工作機會,同時淘汰 9200 萬個職位,到 2030 年將淨增 7800 萬個工作機會。

"Half of employers plan to re-orient their business in response to AI," writes the WEF in the report. "Two-thirds plan to hire talent with specific AI skills, while 40% anticipate reducing their workforce where AI can automate tasks."
世界經濟論壇在報告中寫道:「一半的雇主計劃重新調整其業務以應對人工智慧。」「三分之二的雇主計劃招聘擁有特定人工智慧技能的人才,而 40%的雇主預計將在人工智慧可以自動化任務的地方裁員。」

The survey collected data from 1,000 companies that employ 14 million workers globally. The WEF conducts its employment analysis every two years to help policymakers, business leaders, and workers make decisions about hiring trends.
該調查收集了來自全球 1000 家僱傭 1400 萬名員工的公司數據。世界經濟論壇每兩年進行一次就業分析,以幫助決策者、企業領導者和員工就招聘趨勢做出決策。

The new report points to specific skills that will dominate hiring by 2030. Companies ranked AI and big data expertise, networks and cybersecurity, and technological literacy as the three most in-demand skill sets.
這份新報告指出了到 2030 年將主導招聘的特定技能。公司將人工智慧和大數據專業知識、網路和網路安全以及科技素養列為三個最受需求的技能組合。

The WEF identified AI as the biggest potential job creator among new technologies, with 86 percent of companies expecting AI to transform their operations by 2030.
世界經濟論壇將人工智慧確定為新興技術中最大的潛在就業創造者,86%的公司預計人工智慧將在 2030 年前改變其運營方式。

Declining job categories
就業類別減少

The WEF report also identifies specific job categories facing decline. Postal service clerks, executive secretaries, and payroll staff top the list of shrinking roles, with changes driven by factors including (but not limited to) AI adoption. And for the first time, graphic designers and legal secretaries appear among the fastest-declining positions, which the WEF tentatively links to generative AI's expanding capabilities in creative and administrative work.
世界經濟論壇的報告還指出了面臨衰退的特定工作類別。郵政服務職員、行政秘書和薪資職員位居縮減職位列表的首位,其變化是由包括(但不限於)人工智慧採用在內的多種因素驅動的。而且,圖形設計師和法律秘書首次出現在下降最快的職位中,世界經濟論壇初步將其與生成式人工智慧在創意和行政工作中不斷擴展的能力聯繫起來。

Despite planned workforce reductions, the WEF expects human-machine collaboration to define the workplace more than outright worker replacement. The report shows that 77 percent of surveyed firms will launch retraining programs to help current workers collaborate with AI systems between 2025 and 2030. About 70 percent plan to hire specialists who can design AI tools, while 62 percent seek employees skilled at working alongside these systems.
儘管計劃裁員,但世界經濟論壇預計人機協作將比完全取代員工更能定義工作場所。報告顯示,77%的受訪公司將在 2025 年至 2030 年期間啟動培訓計劃,以幫助現有員工與人工智慧系統協作。約 70%的公司計劃招聘能夠設計人工智慧工具的專家,而 62%的公司則尋求熟練與這些系統協同工作的員工。

The findings arrive as the WEF prepares for its annual meeting in Davos later this month, where AI's impact on the global workforce will take center stage in discussions among world leaders and executives.
這一發現是在世界經濟論壇準備在本月晚些時候在達沃斯舉行年度會議之際發布的,屆時人工智慧對全球勞動力的影響將成為世界領袖和高管們討論的中心議題。

Longer-term AI jobs outlook
人工智慧就業的長期展望

Surveys aside, it's too soon to say for certain whether AI will have a net positive or negative effect on employment, but it's a safe bet that it will trigger a shift in how knowledge workers do their jobs. While the shift may be subtle over time, some people think it could be far more profound.
撇開調查不談,現在就斷言人工智慧對就業的淨效應是正面還是負面還為時過早,但可以肯定的是,它將改變知識工作者工作方式。雖然這種轉變隨著時間的推移可能會很細微,但有些人認為它可能更加深刻。

In 2023, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned to the press that AI could replace the labor of the "median human" worker, suggesting that many jobs could be automated in the future. His company is currently on a quest to create not only artificial general intelligence (AGI) as a well-rounded worker but also "superintelligence," which would ostensibly far surpass human intellectual capability.
2023 年,OpenAI 執行長山姆·阿特曼向媒體提到,人工智慧可能會取代「中等水平人類」員工的勞動,暗示未來許多工作都可能實現自動化。他的公司目前正在努力創造不僅是作為全方位員工的人工通用智能(AGI),還包括「超級智能」,這顯然將遠遠超過人類的智力能力。

To address employment challenges from the development of these new automation technologies, Altman has been a proponent of exploring solutions like universal basic income (UBI), which could provide a base level of money to every American citizen to supplement or replace job-related income. He has funded significant trials to study the impact of basic income, including one of the largest randomized basic income experiments.
為了應對這些新的自動化技術發展帶來的就業挑戰,阿特曼一直倡導探索普遍基本收入(UBI)等解決方案,這可以為每一位美國公民提供基本的生活保障,以補充或取代與工作相關的收入。他資助了大量試驗來研究基本收入的影響,其中包括最大型的隨機基本收入實驗之一。

Altman's projections are still hypothetical, but that has not stopped general angst over the potential impact of AI on jobs in the near future. It's an unresolved issue that we'll continue to cover.
阿特曼的預測仍然是假設性的,但这并没有阻止人們普遍對人工智慧在不久的將來對就業的潛在影響感到焦慮。這是一個尚未解決的問題,我們將繼續關注。

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Benj Edwards Senior AI Reporter
Benj Edwards is Ars Technica's Senior AI Reporter and founder of the site's dedicated AI beat in 2022. He's also a tech historian with almost two decades of experience. In his free time, he writes and records music, collects vintage computers, and enjoys nature. He lives in Raleigh, NC.
Benj Edwards 是 Ars Technica 的高級 AI 記者,並於 2022 年創立了該網站專門報導 AI 的部門。他也是一位科技史學家,擁有近二十年的經驗。在空閒時間,他創作和錄製音樂、收集古董電腦,並享受大自然。他住在北卡羅來納州羅利市。
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