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We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls.

We Now Expect Three 25bp Rate Cuts in September, October, and December, and Two More Cuts in 2026 to a Terminal Rate of 3-3.25% (vs. 3.5-3.75% Previously)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 Jul 2025 | 12:14am| 7pg| Research | Economics-Jan Hatzius and others
Last week increased expectations of a more dovish Fed (Exhibit 1), de-escalation of Middle East tensions (Exhibit 2) and progress in U.S. trade negotiations (including removal of section 899) supported growth pricing across assets.
1 Jul 2025 | 5:11am| 31pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
https://publishing.gs.com/content/subjects/e7f122da-27c6-11df-89b6-00215acf383a.html

The US and European power industries are poised to require >750,000 new workers by 2030 or a significant acceleration in labor productivity. This growth enters a labor force already facing strain from aging and a limited pipeline of skilled labor. This will likely: (1) accelerate deployment of grid optimization / automation / labor efficiency solutions; and (2) potentially benefit incumbent contractors / utilities with a competitive advantage in labor access.

1 Jul 2025 | 6:14am| 49pg| Research | Equity-Evan Tylenda, CFA and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

https://publishing.gs.com/content/girActions/bbd32976-6e84-11e6-9411-005056062d0c.html

In this report, we reflect on larger cap diversified E&Ps, companies with exposure to multiple plays across oil and natural gas. Given our expectations for potential near-term softness in Brent prices, we remain selective in our exposure to this group. We upgrade Ovintiv (OVV) from Neutral to Buy given our expectations for outsized free cash flow generation, while we downgrade Coterra Energy (CTRA) from Buy to Neutral on a combination of 2025 outperformance, mixed operational execution (although we assume this improves) and less natural gas leverage following its Permian oil-focused acquisitions. Across this group of stocks, we now highlight:

Buys: OVV , DVN
Neutrals: EOG, CTRA 
Sells: OXY, APA

/content/research/authors/862d80e8-c6a1-11dd-8ec5-001185134607.html

Neil Mehta

Integrated Oil & Refiners | New York
1 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
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