Glassnode Spotlights: Bitcoin Halving and Its Implications
Glassnode 亮点：比特币减半及其影响

In this first article from our series on the Coinbase x Glassnode Q2 report, we explore the metrics and data shedding light on the strategic implications of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Scheduled for 19 April 2024, this preprogrammed event will reduce the block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, fundamentally impacting Bitcoin's inflation rate and, potentially, also its availability on the market.
在本系列关于 Coinbase x Glassnode Q2 报告的第一篇文章中，我们将探讨揭示即将到来的比特币减半事件战略意义的数据和指标。该事件定于 2024 年 4 月 19 日，这是一个预先编程的事件，它将区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC，从根本上影响比特币的通货膨胀率，并可能影响其在市场上的可用性。

The Bitcoin halving occurs every four years and is a critical mechanism which controls Bitcoin’s scarcity and ensures its status as a disinflationary asset. As we approach this event, traders and investors, especially those employing momentum or long-only trading strategies, will find it helpful to its historical price impacts and place this data in the context of the current market dynamics. Understanding these elements will be key to navigating the post-halving market landscape effectively, especially when timing potential entry and exit points.
比特币减半每四年发生一次，是控制比特币稀缺性的关键机制，并确保其作为通缩资产的地位。随着这一事件的临近，尤其是那些采用动量或只做多交易策略的交易者和投资者，了解其历史价格影响并将这些数据放在当前市场动态的背景下将非常有帮助。理解这些要素将是有效驾驭后减半市场格局的关键，尤其是在把握潜在的进入和退出时机时。

Historical Impact on Bitcoin's Price
比特币价格的历史影响

As covered in detail on pages 17 and 18 of the Q2 Guide to Crypto Markets, past Bitcoin halvings have consistently led to substantial price increases in the subsequent 12 months, a trend that is crucial for investors to consider. Specifically:
正如第二季度加密货币市场指南第 17 和 18 页所详细介绍的，过去的比特币减半事件始终导致随后的 12 个月内价格大幅上涨，这一趋势对于投资者来说至关重要。具体来说：

• After the first halving, Bitcoin's price surged by over 1000%.
  在第一次减半之后，比特币的价格飙升了超过 1000%。
• The second halving saw a 200% increase.
  第二次减半带来了 200%的增加。
• Following the third halving, the price ascended by more than 600%.
  第三次减半后，价格上涨了超过 600%。

These significant upswings highlight the event's potential to drastically affect supply-demand dynamics and consequently, market pricing. As we approach the fourth halving, these historical patterns offer valuable insights for forecasting potential market movements and preparing investment strategies accordingly.
这些显著的上涨突显了该事件对供需动态产生重大影响并进而影响市场定价的潜力。随着我们接近第四次减半，这些历史模式为预测潜在的市场走势和相应地准备投资策略提供了宝贵的见解。

Changing Dynamics Due to Market Evolution
市场演变导致的变化动态

In comparison to past halvings, the landscape of Bitcoin's market dynamics has matured significantly, potentially reducing the direct impact of new Bitcoin issuance on market prices. This change is primarily driven by increasing institutional demand and the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs. Key differences, which are explored on pages 15 and 16 of the Q2 Guide, include:
与过去的减半相比，比特币市场动态的格局已经成熟了许多，这可能会减少新比特币发行对市场价格的影响。这种变化主要是由不断增长的机构需求和比特币 ETF 的广泛采用所驱动的。关键差异，在 Q2 指南的第 15 和 16 页进行了探讨，包括：

• Daily miner Bitcoin issuance now competes with substantial absorption by Bitcoin ETFs. For instance, while miners add approximately 900 BTC to the market daily, Bitcoin ETFs frequently purchase far more, significantly influencing supply levels and market liquidity.
  比特币的每日矿工发行量现在与比特币 ETF 的大量吸收相竞争。例如，虽然矿工每天向市场增加大约 900 BTC，但比特币 ETF 经常购买更多，这显著影响了供应水平和市场流动性。

• Additionally, ETFs may impact market volatility by generating large-scale inflows and outflows. These movements can greatly influence price stability and market sentiment, often independently of traditional supply-demand constraints.
  此外，ETF 可能会通过产生大规模的资金流入和流出影响市场波动性。这些运动可以极大地影响价格稳定性和市场情绪，往往独立于传统的供需限制。

In short, ETF inflows and outflows are already exerting a notable impact on the availability and demand for Bitcoin and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Given these factors, ETFs are key players in the market whose activities could overshadow the historical impact of the halving. For traders, this means ETF trends may provide key data points for making informed decisions in a landscape that may no longer behave predictably post-halving.
简而言之，ETF的流入和流出已经对比特币的供应和需求产生了显著影响，并且在未来可预见的时期内仍将继续产生影响。考虑到这些因素，ETF是市场中的关键参与者，其活动可能会掩盖减半事件的历史影响。对于交易者而言，这意味着ETF趋势可能会提供关键数据点，以在减半后可能不再可预测的市场环境中做出明智的决策。

Conclusions 结论

With the fourth Bitcoin halving fast approaching, the digital asset market will be impacted by a mixture of established cyclical events and evolving investment behaviours. Historically, halvings have led to major market rallies by cutting the supply of new Bitcoins, thus potentially increasing prices due to higher demand. However, this time, the dynamics are further complicated by heavy institutional involvement through ETFs and notable shifts in the activities of long-term investors and 'smart money' entities.
随着第四次比特币减半的快速临近，数字资产市场将受到既定周期性事件和不断发展的投资行为的混合影响。历史上，减半事件通过减少新比特币的供应量，导致市场大幅上涨，因为需求增加可能会推高价格。然而，这一次，由于通过 ETF 的机构参与度增加以及长期投资者和“聪明钱”实体活动的显著变化，市场动态变得更加复杂。

These factors collectively suggest a more nuanced market response to the upcoming halving:
这些因素共同表明，即将到来的减半事件将导致市场反应更加微妙：

• ETF Activities: It's essential to monitor ETF inflows and outflows carefully. A decrease in ETF purchases could signal an impending market downturn.
  ETF 活动：仔细监控 ETF 的流入和流出非常重要。ETF 购买量的减少可能预示着市场即将下跌。
• Market Dynamics: Increased selling by long-term holders might indicate a nearing market peak, impacting overall market stability and price levels.
  市场动态：长期持有者的抛售增加可能表明市场即将达到顶峰，这会影响整体市场稳定性和价格水平。
• Halving Psychology: Be wary of potential sell-the-news effects surrounding the halving event. Traders should consider strategic adjustments to their positions to navigate expected volatility.
  减半心理：在减半事件周围要警惕潜在的“卖新闻”效应。交易者应考虑对其仓位进行战略调整，以应对预期的波动性。

By maintaining a close watch on these key factors, traders can better position themselves to respond to market shifts and capitalize on new opportunities as they arise.
通过密切关注这些关键因素，交易者可以更好地定位自己，以应对市场变化并利用新出现的机会。

If you would like to learn more about complex interrelations to better optimize their strategies in light of the upcoming halving, read our dedicated research article.
如果您想了解更多关于复杂相互关系的信息，以便在即将到来的减半中更好地优化他们的策略，请阅读我们专门的研究文章。

To get a better understanding of the digital asset market as a whole and learn more about key trends and events such as the halving, ETFs, and derivatives market complexities, download 'Q2 Guide to Crypto Markets' here.
要更好地了解整个数字资产市场，并了解更多关于减半、ETFs 和衍生品市场复杂性等关键趋势和事件，请在这里下载《Q2 加密货币市场指南》。