TMTB EOD Wrap
QQQs - 28bps as all eyes on NFP report tomorrow morning. BTC with a fairly ugly candle hovering around $100k after hitting 104k early in the day. Yields roughly flattish. Fairly quiet day.
Post-close GTLB +9% results look solid with nice rev beat ($196M vs street at $188), which is largest rev beat vs guide in 5 quarters. RPO also looks better. Sentiment/positioning was mixed heading in so should be viewed nicely. Guide above street and inline with bogeys but will be viewed conservatively as always. Names new CEO as old CEO stepping down for health reasons.
Revenue: $196M (Est. $187.87M)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.23 (Est. $0.15);
Total RPO: $811.8M; UP +48% YoY
Current RPO: $515.2M; UP +39% YoY
FY25 Guidance:
Revenue: $753M-$754M (Est. $745M)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.63-$0.64 (Est. $0.47)
Non-GAAP Operating Income: $69M-$70M
Q4 Guidance:
Revenue: $205M-$206M (Est. $204.8M)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.22-$0.23 (Est. $0.15)
Non-GAAP Operating Income: $28M-$29M
HPE flat #s look mixed with top and bottom line beat. AI rev in line at $1.5B (and below whispers of $1.7B) but orders of 500M missed street at $1.4B. Guide roughly in line. Beat driven by Hybrid cloud and EPS helped by H3C sale
Internet
UBER -11% / LYFT - 11% - oof. First, BAML said TSLA feeling better about robotaxi in their morning note and stock was down 1-2%. Then Waymo came out and said they are launching in Miami and not using Uber for fleet mgmt so the bulls hopes of UBER playing a role in future Waymo launches takes a big hit. At Dealbook, GOOGL’s CEO said 6-7 cites this year, in 10 by next year, and boasted about miles driven.
RBLX +8% as bulls feeling more confident after Digiday article early in the week and CFO sounding positive on ad opportunity yesterday at wells. Also slight uptick in engagement data at Yipit overnight helped a bit
AMZN +1.1% hitting new highs as Yipit had some positive weekly retail/AWS data and change in narrative coming out of re:invent seems to be that AMZN is no longer a loser in AI and might actually come out ahead int he long-term (I’ll talk more about this in my weekly)
NFLX +1% continues to chug higher: Next catalyst is global sub estimate from Yipit late next week which should show significant strength given the PR we got from NFLX. After that, we’ve talked about catalyst path on Xmas (NFL + Beyonce), Squid games, then WWE Raw in Jan, then likely px increase after.
SPOT - 2% - some questions here but didnt hear any reason for weakness other than they had investor dinner yesterday and their usual EOY wrapped didn’t get as much play as usual
GOOGL -1%/ META - 1%
SHOP +60bps steady as she goes
CHWY -7% follow through after yesterday’s earnings.
ABNB -2% on weaker Yip weekly data
EXPE +1.4% as 3p data continues to be robust
Semis
MBLY flat despite Wolfe’s upgrade
NVDA flat despite news of Musk launching a 1M+ GPU cluster, althouhg outperformed other AI names
Other AI names weaker: MRVL -4% giving back after monster day yesterday; ARM -2.3%; MU - 2%; AMD - 2%. TSM +2%; VRT +3%; CLS +3% the standouts
Analog names continue to get hit: MCHP -5.5%; NXPi - 3%ADI - 1.7%; TXN - 2%. MCHP didn’t sound good at conferences this week and investors losing confidence in any sort of bottom NT
SNPS -12% / CDNS - 6% after SNPS earnings
AMAT - 5% after MS’s downgrade
Software
U +5% as rumors around RoaringKitty tweet drove some crazy call action as vol exploded. Time’s person of the Year in 2006, which this cover references, was “You:
APP +1.4% continues to hit new highs - rumors of a short report out there but i didnt see anything
MSFT +1% as Bernstein put out a note deep diving into MSFT’s Ai revs. Moerdler analyzed MSFT’s projected >$10B AI revenue, breaking it into two main components: SaaS Copilots (excluding GitHub Copilot) and Azure AI. His analysis suggests Azure AI run rate around $8.5B (excluding GitHub Copilot's ~$1B), while Microsoft 365 Copilot generates ~$1-1.5B run rate with roughly 1% Commercial Office 365 user adoption. His analysis showed less exposure to startup LLM training and mix indicates healthy AI margins rather than diluting overall profitability.
ORCL -1% despite some positive checks at M-sci calling out strength in OCI
S -13% after smallest rev beat since macro issues hit but co also raised FY by $3M and Q4 implied guide by nearly $2M. Bears ended up winning the day,
FSLY +1% as co sounded good at UBS yesterday
PTLR +3% keeps on chugging
ADBE +30bps despite chatter around AI release of Sora might hit the stock
CRM -1.7% / TEAM -4% /HUBS -2.6% giving some back after yesterday’s outperformance
Elsewhere
TSLA +3% as BAML was positive after meeting with IR
Lots of red to green in fintech with BTC selling off from highs: COIN -3%; HOOD - 2.7%; SQ - 3%; AFRM -5%. SQ and AFRM saw slight downtick in Yip’s weekly data
Bullish and Bearish Weekly Option Flow
