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What determines urban households' willingness to pay for CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission reductions in Turkey: A contingent valuation survey
决定土耳其城市家庭减排 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 意愿的因素：或有估值调查

a a  ^("a "){ }^{\text {a }} Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey
a a  ^("a "){ }^{\text {a }} Boğaziçi 大学经济系，34342 Bebek， 伊斯坦布尔， 土耳其 b b  ^("b "){ }^{\text {b }} Department of Industrial Engineering, Boğaziçi University, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey
b b  ^("b "){ }^{\text {b }} Boğaziçi 大学工业工程系，34342 Bebek， 伊斯坦布尔， 土耳其

ARTICLE INFO  文章信息

Article history:  文章历史：

Received 23 March 2010  收稿日期 2010 年 3 月 23 日
Accepted 28 October 2010  接受日期 2010-10-28
Available online 26 November 2010
2010 年 11 月 26 日在线提供

Keywords:  关键字：

Climate change  气候变化
Contingent valuation  或有估值
Turkey  土耳其

Abstract  抽象

This paper explores Turkish urban households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production. A face-to-face questionnaire, with a Contingent valuation (CV) module prepared using the double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework, was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban Turkey-a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The determinants of WTP were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio-economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviour, the relevance of the identity of the collection agent (national versus international institutions) in terms of trust people have towards them, and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project. Our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that WTP figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues, and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge, are more likely to be high. However, their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions. Overall, this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance-related uncertainties in climate change deals.
本文探讨了土耳其城市家庭对 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 电力生产改善预期产生的减排量的支付意愿 （WTP）。对代表土耳其城市的 2422 名受访者进行了一份面对面的问卷调查，其中包含使用双界二分法选择启发框架准备的条件估值 （CV） 模块，土耳其城市是一个温室气体排放量低但快速增长的发展中国家。WTP 的决定因素是通过不仅考虑标准社会经济因素的影响，还考虑环境知识、态度和行为的影响，收集代理（国家与国际机构）身份在人们对他们的信任方面的相关性，以及其他人在项目实施中的感知参与程度来确定的。我们的研究证实了现有文献，表明活跃于环境问题的年轻人和受过教育的人报告的 WTP 数据更有可能很高。然而，他们做出贡献的意愿受到严重阻碍，因为他们认为他们的同胞不会做出贡献，而且普遍缺乏对机构的信任。总体而言，这项研究可以被视为消除气候变化协议中与治理相关的不确定性的呼吁。

© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
© 2010 爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。

1. Introduction  1. 引言

It is now close to full scientific consensus that the Earth’s average near-surface air temperature and ocean levels are rising as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide- CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2}-being the major contributor). Unless this pattern is reversed, it is feared that sea levels will rise, extreme weather events will intensify, and both the amount and the pattern of precipitation will change drastically (Gore, 2006; IPCC, 2007). Although estimates of the economic costs of global warming (arising from, inter alia, loss in agricultural yields, changes in trade routes, and extinction of species) are quite sensitive to the assumptions set out (such as the intensification rate of extreme weather events, the rate of sea level increase, and the discount rate), it is commonly acknowledged that these costs will be rather significant even under optimistic scenarios (Pearce, 2003; Stern, 2006, 2009). Consequently, to prevent the threat greenhouse gases pose for the climate, substantial reductions in emissions have been called for at the global level. Yet, the crude reality is that greenhouse gas emissions worldwide are escalating by around 3 % 3 % 3%3 \% per year (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2009). This in fact clearly indicates a need
现在，科学界几乎达成了完全共识，即地球的平均近地表空气温度和海平面正在上升，这是由于人为温室气体排放（二氧化碳 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 是主要贡献者）。除非这种模式得到逆转，否则人们担心海平面会上升，极端天气事件会加剧，降水的数量和模式都会发生巨大变化（Gore，2006 年;IPCC，2007 年）。尽管对全球变暖的经济成本（除其他外，由农业产量损失、贸易路线的变化和物种灭绝引起的）的估计对所提出的假设（例如极端天气事件的增强率、海平面上升的速度和贴现率）相当敏感，但人们普遍认为，即使在乐观的情况下，这些成本也将相当可观（皮尔斯， 2003;Stern，2006 年、2009 年）。因此，为了防止温室气体对气候构成威胁，全球层面呼吁大幅减少排放。然而，粗暴的现实是，全球温室气体排放量每年增加约 3 % 3 % 3%3 \% （IPCC，2007 年;Stern，2009 年）。这实际上清楚地表明了一种需求
to carefully design a governance structure that would appropriately address such a collective-action problem, as recently noted by Nobel Prize Laureate Elinor Ostrom (2009). Apart from the failure to achieve consensus on how mitigation costs are to be distributed among nations, as just recently observed during the negotiations at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, the extent to which policymakers and above all the general public in different countries are truly willing to deal with the climate problem is a separate issue altogether (Cameron, 2005; Sandvik, 2008). Detailed analysis is therefore warranted to study people’s willingness to contribute to climate change mitigation and its determinants, and the appropriate institutional set-up that would enhance international cooperation.
精心设计一个治理结构，以适当地解决这样的集体行动问题，正如诺贝尔奖获得者 Elinor Ostrom （2009） 最近所指出的那样。正如最近在哥本哈根 2009 年联合国气候变化大会的谈判中所观察到的那样，除了未能就如何在国家之间分配减缓成本达成共识之外，不同国家的政策制定者，尤其是公众在多大程度上真正愿意处理气候问题，这完全是一个单独的问题（卡梅伦， 2005;Sandvik，2008 年）。因此，有必要进行详细分析，以研究人们为减缓气候变化做出贡献的意愿及其决定因素，以及加强国际合作的适当机构设置。
Developed and developing countries appear to take a different stance in this regard, as recently witnessed in the Copenhagen debates. Developed nations, which are largely locked up in highlevel consumption patterns, find themselves contributing the most to the global warming problem despite continuous efforts to clean up their technologies. Developing nations, on the other hand, mostly use technologies that are old and detrimental in terms of their environmental impact, but they are unwilling to renew them lest the cost of doing that may divert them from the path of highconsumption levels attainable in the future. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions are generally high in developed nations, and low but rapidly rising in developing ones. One solution might be for
发达国家和发展中国家在这方面似乎采取了不同的立场，正如最近在哥本哈根辩论中所看到的那样。发达国家在很大程度上被困在高水平的消费模式中，尽管不断努力清理其技术，但它们发现自己对全球变暖问题的贡献最大。另一方面，发展中国家大多使用陈旧且对环境有害的技术，但它们不愿意更新这些技术，以免这样做的成本可能会使他们偏离未来可以达到的高消费水平的道路。因此，发达国家的温室气体排放量通常很高，而发展中国家的温室气体排放量较低但迅速上升。一种解决方案可能是
developed nations to reconsider their consumption patterns and for developing countries to invest in green technologies. It is at this juncture that the demand for studies that investigate different nations’ positions concerning climate mitigation assumes importance and relevance.
发达国家重新考虑其消费模式，并鼓励发展中国家投资绿色技术。正是在这个关头，对调查不同国家在减缓气候变化方面的立场的研究的需求变得重要和相关性。
Turkey is a major developing country with a growing population and economy (currently a population of 72 million producing [ppp adjusted] $ 915 $ 915 $915\$ 915 billion), and as such finds it difficult to avoid higher greenhouse emissions. Although emissions per capita are not high (around the world average and the second lowest within the EU-27 in terms of CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} figures), they are increasing at an alarming rate. Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions skyrocketed from 170.1 mt in 1990 to 372.6 mt in 2007. This amounts to a huge jump of 119 % 119 % 119%119 \% and it is by far the highest among OECD countries (Kumbaroğlu and Arıkan, 2009; TURKSTAT, 2009). Of that amount, roughly one-third was caused by industry, another third by power production, and transportation and other activities were responsible for the rest; households consume approximately half the electricity produced for various uses (Kumbaroğlu and Arıkan, 2009). Despite this enormous increase in emission figures, Turkey only recently began to discuss the issue of climate change in official (DEKTMK, 2007), business (İncecik et al., 2007), NGO (Özesmi and Altuntop, 2007), and academic (Kumbaroğlu et al., 2008) circles. At the policy level, not much has been put into practice other than the recent ratification of the Kyoto protocol in May 2009 (which implied very little in terms of obligations on Turkey at any rate) and some minor legislative improvements to comply with the requirements of the European Union Accession process of Turkey (Turkey, 2009 Progress Report). This should come as no surprise, given the modernist vision of the Turkish state that ranks environmental concerns quite low (Adaman and Arsel, 2005, 2010). Although surveys indicate that people in Turkey are concerned about both environmental issues in general and global warming in particular (World Values Survey, 2009), no study has yet been conducted to determine how firm that concern is and to measure people’s actual readiness to commit to the climate change problem.
土耳其是一个发展中大国，人口和经济不断增长（目前有 7200 万人口生产 [购买力平价调整后的] $ 915 $ 915 $915\$ 915 亿），因此很难避免更高的温室气体排放。尽管人均排放量并不高（全球平均水平，在欧盟 27 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 国中排名第二），但它们正在以惊人的速度增长。土耳其的温室气体排放量从 1990 年的 170.1 公吨飙升至 2007 年的 372.6 公吨。这相当于一个巨大的跃升 119 % 119 % 119%119 \% ，而且是迄今为止经合组织国家中最高的（Kumbaroğlu 和 Arıkan，2009 年;TURKSTAT，2009 年）。其中，大约三分之一是由工业造成的，另外三分之一是由电力生产造成的，其余的是由运输和其他活动造成的;家庭消耗的电力大约是各种用途的一半（Kumbaroğlu 和 Arıkan，2009 年）。尽管排放量大幅增加，但土耳其直到最近才开始在官方 （DEKTMK， 2007）、商业 （İncecik et al.， 2007）、非政府组织 （Özesmi and Altuntop， 2007） 和学术界 （Kumbaroğlu et al.， 2008） 圈子里讨论气候变化问题。在政策层面，除了最近于 2009 年 5 月批准《京都议定书》（无论如何，该议定书对土耳其的义务几乎没有暗示）和一些微小的立法改进以符合土耳其加入欧盟进程的要求（土耳其，2009 年进展报告）之外，没有太多付诸实践。鉴于土耳其国家的现代主义愿景将环境问题置于相当低的位置，这应该不足为奇（Adaman 和 Arsel，2005 年，2010 年）。 尽管调查表明土耳其人普遍关注环境问题，特别是全球变暖（世界价值观调查，2009 年），但尚未进行任何研究来确定这种担忧的坚定程度并衡量人们实际准备应对气候变化问题。
Based on this insight, this paper employs the contingent valuation (CV) method to arrive at a measure of willingness to pay (WTP) of urban households’ in Turkey for CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission reductions. Taking WTP as a measure of people’s actual readiness to pay for CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission reductions, the paper seeks to uncover the determinants of WTP with a view to providing input for the design of appropriate policy tools that will help combat the global warming problem at the national level (and as such it is the first study of its kind in Turkey). The potential impact of individual factors such as income, education, age, gender, level of environmental knowledge, and intensity of environmental friendliness are assessed. In addition, the extent to which households’ WTP varies based on different collection/provision contexts that will put CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission-reducing policies into practice is also explored. More specifically, the paper aspires to capture whether people’s selfreported contribution amounts will differ, ceteris paribus, under two provision arrangements in the collection and expenditure of funds: the provision arrangement administered by a national body (“Turkey Fund”) and the one administered by an international body (“World Fund”). Finally, the paper will examine the potential impact of variations in both the levels of trust in the integrity and competence of the body responsible for administering the provision arrangement, as well as the impact of an individual’s perception regarding other citizens’ level of acceptance in relation to partaking in such a project as a nation.
基于这一见解，本文采用或有估值 （CV） 方法得出土耳其 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 城市家庭减排支付意愿 （WTP） 的衡量标准。本文将 WTP 作为衡量人们实际 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 支付减排费用的意愿的指标，旨在揭示 WTP 的决定因素，以期为设计适当的政策工具提供意见，这将有助于在国家层面应对全球变暖问题（因此，这是土耳其首次进行此类研究）。评估收入、教育程度、年龄、性别、环境知识水平和环境友好程度等个人因素的潜在影响。此外，还探讨了家庭的 WTP 在多大程度上根据不同的收集/供应环境而变化，这将减少 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 排放政策付诸实践。更具体地说，本文旨在捕捉人们自我报告的缴款金额是否会有所不同，即在资金征收和支出的两种准备金安排下：由国家机构（“土耳其基金”）管理的准备金安排和由国际机构（“世界基金”）管理的准备金安排。最后，本文将研究对负责管理供应安排的机构的诚信和能力的信任水平变化的潜在影响，以及个人对其他公民参与此类项目的接受程度的看法的影响作为一个国家。
The data set was constructed using a face-to-face questionnaire with 2422 households drawn from urban Turkey through stratified random sampling. A carefully developed hypothetical scenario inducing a clearly specified improvement in climate change was presented to the respondents, who were then asked to reveal their
该数据集是使用面对面问卷构建的，通过分层随机抽样从土耳其城市抽取了 2422 个家庭。向受访者展示了一个精心设计的假设情景，该情景导致气候变化的明确改善，然后要求他们透露他们的
willingness to contribute to a fund (to be collected and spent by either the national or the international body) to put this improvement into practice. In this context the sample was randomly split into two, and each group was presented with exactly the same climate change prevention scenario, the only difference being the type of institution the funds were given to (Turkey Fund versus World Fund). Apart from the type of institution, the respondents were asked the same set of questions.
愿意向基金捐款（由国家或国际机构筹集和支出）以将这一改进付诸实践。在这种情况下，样本被随机分为两部分，每组都面临着完全相同的气候变化预防情景，唯一的区别是资金提供给的机构类型（土耳其基金与世界基金）。除了机构类型外，受访者还被问到了相同的问题。
The paper is organised as follows: Section 2 presents the theoretical framework employed, discussing the CV technique in eliciting economic agents’ WTP in general and for climate change in particular. Section 3 describes the survey instrument used, its valuation module, and the sampling method employed. The framework for statistical analysis of data, together with descriptive statistics for relevant variables, as well as the econometric model used is introduced in Section 4 . Section 5 presents the econometric results. Discussions of the results together with concluding remarks are provided in Section 6.
本文组织如下：第 2 节介绍了所采用的理论框架，讨论了 CV 技术在引发经济主体的 WTP 方面的一般情况，特别是针对气候变化。第 3 节描述了所使用的调查工具、其估值模块和采用的抽样方法。第 4 节介绍了数据统计分析的框架，以及相关变量的描述性统计，以及所使用的计量经济学模型。第 5 节介绍了计量经济学的结果。第 6 节提供了对结果的讨论以及结论性评论。

2. Theoretical background
2. 理论背景

Literature on the CV technique is well established. CV surveys, creating realistic yet still hypothetical markets, provide a methodologically rigorous way of asking economic agents to reveal their maximum willingness to contribute to, or minimum willingness to accept compensation for, environmental quality or quantity change, which are either incompletely or partially accounted for in real, economic, markets. Since its conception in 1947 (CiriacyWantrup, 1947) and first application in 1963 (Davis, 1963), the method has undergone numerous methodological tests to assess its reliability and accuracy. Though much improvement has been made in its methodological set-up to date (as may be found in the state-of-the-art guidelines provided by Arrow et al. (1993), Bateman et al. (2002), Mitchell and Carson (1989); see also Alberini and Kahn (2006), Carson (2008), Carson and Hanemann (2006), Koundouri (2004) and Venkatachalam (2004), the CV method still remains controversial in many respects. Discussions on the “biases” of this method-including the strategic manipulation of respondents, differences between willingness to accept and willingness to pay, non-response (zero-bid) protesters, starting point biases, sequencing issues, “warm glow” effects, and the choice of payment vehicle-continue to dominate the existing literature (Bateman and Willis, 1999; Bjornstad and Kahn, 1996; Cummings and Harrison, 1994; Getzner et al., 2005; Hausman, 1993; Nunes and Schokkaert, 2003; Spash, 2008). However important and crucial these issues may be, the economics discipline seems to be in general agreement that the CV method can assist policymakers in both gauging the public’s readiness to pay for environmental goods, and perhaps more importantly, understanding what determines the public’s willingness to contribute and preferences concerning the institutional and social set-up that would be instrumental in implementing the scenario presented.
关于 CV 技术的文献已经很成熟。CV 调查创造了现实但仍然是假设的市场，提供了一种方法论上严格的方法，要求经济主体揭示他们对环境质量或数量变化的最大贡献意愿或接受补偿的最低意愿，这些变化在实际经济市场中要么不完整，要么部分被考虑。自 1947 年构思 （CiriacyWantrup， 1947） 和 1963 年首次应用 （Davis， 1963） 以来，该方法经过了大量方法测试，以评估其可靠性和准确性。尽管迄今为止其方法设置已经有了很大的改进（可以在 Arrow 等人 （1993）、Bateman 等人 （2002）、Mitchell 和 Carson （1989） 提供的最新指南中找到）;另见 Alberini 和 Kahn （2006）、Carson （2008）、Carson 和 Hanemann （2006）、Koundouri （2004） 和 Venkatachalam （2004），CV 方法在许多方面仍然存在争议。关于这种方法的“偏见”的讨论——包括对受访者的战略操纵、接受意愿和支付意愿之间的差异、不回应（零出价）抗议者、起点偏见、排序问题、“暖光”效应和支付工具的选择——继续主导现有文献（Bateman 和 Willis，1999 年;Bjornstad 和 Kahn，1996 年;Cummings 和 Harrison，1994 年;Getzner 等人，2005 年;Hausman， 1993;Nunes 和 Schokkaert，2003 年;Spash，2008 年）。 无论这些问题多么重要和关键，经济学学科似乎普遍认为 CV 方法可以帮助政策制定者衡量公众为环境商品付费的意愿，也许更重要的是，理解是什么决定了公众的贡献意愿和对机构和社会设置的偏好，这将有助于实施所提出的情景。
This paper is informed especially by Bjornstad and Kahn’s (1996) study, where the researchers, in setting out the study areas that require attention to further improve the CV approach, claimed that the contextualisation of the hypothetical set-up had to be carefully specified as this would likely impact the preferences stated (i.e. the self-reported willingness to contribute/accept compensation). In a parallel vein, Getzner (2005) suggested that for any CV approach to be reliable and accurate, the “standard” model of explaining agents’ stated contributions/compensations through merely “individuals’ factors” (such as age, gender, income, and environmental perception) should be “extended” by way of incorporating institutional and social context. This argument was largely echoed by ecological economists who underline the
本文特别受到 Bjornstad 和 Kahn （1996） 的研究的影响，其中研究人员在列出需要注意以进一步改进 CV 方法的研究领域时，声称必须仔细指定假设设置的情境化，因为这可能会影响所陈述的偏好（即自我报告的贡献/接受补偿的意愿）。同样，Getzner （2005） 建议，要使任何 CV 方法可靠和准确，仅通过“个人因素”（如年龄、性别、收入和环境感知）来解释代理人陈述的贡献/补偿的“标准”模型应该通过结合制度和社会背景来“扩展”。这一论点在很大程度上得到了生态经济学家的赞同，他们强调
importance of institutional set-up in relation to environmental issues (Getzner, 2005; Paavola, 2007; Vatn, 2005).
与环境问题相关的机构设置的重要性（Getzner，2005 年;Paavola， 2007;Vatn，2005 年）。
Possible effects of the institutional and social context on respondents’ self-reported figures may be categorised under four, somewhat interrelated, headings. The first, and perhaps the most widely discussed one, is the question of whether WTP figures change when payments are made under compulsion, thus collectively, or voluntarily (a required surcharge versus a voluntary charge on electricity bills in support of renewable energy, for example). This discussion is inconclusive, because the theory predicts two opposing effects. The first is the free-riding component, which indicates that when payment is voluntary, people will understate self-reported figures, expecting others to finance the project. The second is the incentive-compatibility factor, which suggests that, since the financial burden is never shouldered fully by one and always shared by others, it is always optimal to overstate self-reported figures in order to increase the likelihood that the project is realised (Carson and Groves, 2007; Champ et al., 2002; Jin et al., 2008; Wiser, 2007).
制度和社会环境对受访者自我报告的数据可能产生的影响可分为四个相互关联的标题。第一个，也许也是讨论最广泛的一个，是当强制性付款时，WTP 数字是否会发生变化，即集体或自愿支付（例如，为支持可再生能源而自愿收取电费）。这种讨论没有定论，因为该理论预测了两种相反的效果。第一个是搭便车部分，它表明当付款是自愿的时，人们会低估自我报告的数字，期望其他人为项目提供资金。第二个是激励-兼容性因素，它表明，由于财务负担从来没有完全由一个人承担，而且总是由其他人分担，因此夸大自我报告的数字总是最好的，以增加项目实现的可能性（Carson 和 Groves，2007 年;Champ et al.， 2002;Jin et al.， 2008;Wiser，2007 年）。
The second area of discussion in CV studies evolves around the impact of the perception of the respondent regarding the position of others relative to the project under question. In this fairly new area of investigation, the question-related to the one in the previous paragraph-is whether people would contribute less or more, based on their perceptions of greater contributions or firmer commitment to the project by others. There are again two opposing factors at play here. A higher number of supporters/contributors may propel some individuals to free-ride more, i.e. to overstate their WTP, since the project will be financed anyway, but it is also crucial that no-one feels their contributions will be used by opportunistic people, which will lead to understatement of their WTP (Pieters et al., 1998; Wiser, 2007). This last point is related to the literature on reciprocity, where contributions are often matched with contributions, and noncooperation with noncooperation (Polanyi, 1944; Sugden, 1984).
CV 研究中讨论的第二个领域围绕受访者对他人相对于所讨论项目的位置的看法的影响而发展。在这个相当新的调查领域中，与上一段中的问题相关的问题是，人们会根据他们对他人做出更大贡献或对项目做出更坚定承诺的看法，是会做出更少还是更多的贡献。这里又有两个相反的因素在起作用。更多的支持者/贡献者可能会促使一些人更多地搭便车，即夸大他们的 WTP，因为该项目无论如何都会得到资助，但同样重要的是，没有人觉得他们的贡献会被机会主义的人利用，这将导致低估他们的 WTP（Pieters 等人，1998 年;Wiser，2007 年）。最后一点与互惠文献有关，其中贡献通常与贡献相匹配，不合作与不合作（Polanyi，1944 年;Sugden， 1984）。
The third dimension of CV studies concerns the identity of the institutional body in charge of the project. It is a well-known fact that people may have different preferences over dissimilar institutional identities (Getzner, 2005; Wiser, 2007). An obvious component of this variance is the level of trust in the institution to adequately run the project. There is now a clear understanding that trust in the integrity and the competence of the institution responsible for the project will indeed favourably impact WTP figures. For a given scenario in a CV study, the hidden assumption is that the institution in charge as presented in the scenario will guarantee the provision of a given amenity. But as noted by many (Arrow et al., 1993; Bateman et al., 2002; Wiser, 2007), lack of trust in the institution’s ability/willingness/capacity to properly manage the funds and provide the good makes people reluctant to contribute, and will likely increase protest responses. An obvious empirical research question that emerges is to seek the accurate institutional set-up that would instil greater confidence in respondents and minimise the possibility of eliciting lower values due to lack of trust.
简历研究的第三个维度涉及负责项目的机构机构的身份。众所周知，人们对不同的机构身份可能有不同的偏好（Getzner，2005 年;Wiser，2007 年）。这种差异的一个明显组成部分是机构对充分运行项目的信任程度。现在人们清楚地认识到，对负责该项目的机构的诚信和能力的信任确实会对 WTP 数据产生有利影响。对于 CV 研究中的给定场景，隐藏的假设是场景中呈现的负责机构将保证提供给定的便利设施。但正如许多人所指出的（Arrow et al.， 1993;Bateman et al.， 2002;Wiser，2007 年），对机构妥善管理资金和提供商品的能力/意愿/能力缺乏信任，使人们不愿意捐款，并可能增加抗议反应。一个明显的实证研究问题是寻求准确的制度设置，这将为受访者灌输更大的信心，并最大限度地减少由于缺乏信任而导致较低价值的可能性。
However, there may well be additional reasons other than trust as to why some people prefer one institutional identity over the other. One possible line of demarcation might be the ownership structure of the body-e.g., private firms versus public bodies versus cooperatives (as recently examined by Wiser, 2007). Another might be the localisation or the centralisation of an environmental project. Obviously, differences in opinion may very well overlap with the trust dimension; some may find the local more accountable and thus transparent, for instance, while others may argue that the local would not only lack competence and know-how but might be more susceptible to corruption compared to a centralised system.
然而，除了信任之外，很可能还有其他原因可以解释为什么有些人更喜欢一种机构身份而不是另一种。一条可能的分界线可能是机构的所有权结构——例如，私营公司、公共机构和合作社（正如 Wiser，2007 年最近检查的那样）。另一种可能是环境项目的本地化或集中化。显然，意见分歧很可能与信任维度重叠;例如，有些人可能会认为地方政府更负责任，因此更透明，而另一些人可能会争辩说，与中央集权系统相比，地方政府不仅缺乏能力和知识，而且可能更容易受到腐败的影响。
Given the arguments above, our paper aimed to go beyond a standard CV measurement for CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} reduction and incorporated a method to assess the impact of institutional context on respondents’ WTP and the impact of perception regarding others’ participation in the project. Those two points are expected to help identify policy instruments that will be more effective in reducing CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emissions in Turkey.
鉴于上述论点，我们的论文旨在超越标准的 CV 减少测量 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} ，并纳入一种方法来评估机构环境对受访者 WTP 的影响以及对他人参与项目的看法的影响。预计这两点将有助于确定更有效地减少 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 土耳其排放的政策工具。
Another differentiating future of this study lies in its attempt to capture WTP for direct and explicit mitigation of climate change. The bulk of CV studies in relation to climate change deal with WTP for green power projects in an indirect way, without specifying the explicit link between global warming and electricity production-people are instructed that they should expect an improvement in the climate change issue in broader terms (Alvarez-Farizo and Hanley, 2002; Bergmann et al., 2006; Longo et al., 2007; Menges et al., 2005; Roe et al., 2001; Wiser, 2007). This is also the case in studies that try to ascertain WTP for ethanolbased green fuel (Petrolia et al., 2010) or hydrogen buses (O’Garra et al., 2007). Studies that directly question WTP in relation to global warming, on the other hand, usually address a specific segment of society (such as air passengers; Brouwer et al., 2008). Our study, on the other hand, is an implementation of a large-scale CV survey that is representative of urban Turkey, and directly asks people’s WTP for alleviating the global warming problem. The energy project is used in the CV scenario as an appropriate vehicle through which the global warming problem is addressed.
这项研究的另一个差异化未来在于它试图捕捉 WTP 以直接和明确地缓解气候变化。与气候变化相关的大部分 CV 研究以间接方式处理绿色电力项目的 WTP，而没有具体说明全球变暖与电力生产之间的明确联系——人们被指示他们应该期望气候变化问题在更广泛的范围内得到改善（Alvarez-Farizo 和 Hanley，2002 年;Bergmann et al.， 2006;Longo et al.， 2007;Menges 等人，2005 年;Roe et al.， 2001;Wiser，2007 年）。在试图确定乙醇基绿色燃料（Petrolia et al.， 2010）或氢能公交车（O'Garra et al.， 2007）的 WTP 的研究中也是如此。另一方面，直接质疑 WTP 与全球变暖关系的研究通常针对社会的特定阶层（例如航空乘客;Brouwer et al.， 2008）。另一方面，我们的研究是代表土耳其城市的大规模 CV 调查的实施，并直接要求人们的 WTP 缓解全球变暖问题。能源项目在 CV 情景中用作解决全球变暖问题的适当工具。

3. Research design, sampling, and implementation of the survey
3. 调查的研究设计、抽样和实施

The research was conducted in 26 cities representative of urban Turkey at the NUTS 2 1 2 1 2^(1)2^{1} level in the form of face-to-face interviews from July 4 to August 21, 2007, by a professional research company. 2 2 ^(2){ }^{2} All in all, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 2422 households drawn from urban Turkey using the random stratified sampling method. 3 3 ^(3){ }^{3} Prior to finalising the questionnaire, a set of pre-tests was conducted. Since the unit of analysis was the household, respondents from each household were determined again randomly among those aged 18 years and above. If the selected person was unavailable at the time of visit, an appointment was made and the household visited a second time. (If the person was still unavailable, then a new household was randomly selected.) Administering of each questionnaire took approximately 40 min . The total rejection rate was 12 % ; 80 % 12 % ; 80 % 12%;80%12 \% ; 80 \% of respondents in this group declined to be a part of the survey at the first visit (mostly indicating time pressure) while the remaining decided to withdraw during the interview after initially agreeing to it (all indicating time pressure). 4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} Respondents who expressed
该研究于 2007 年 7 月 4 日至 8 月 21 日由一家专业研究公司在代表土耳其城市的 26 2 1 2 1 2^(1)2^{1} 个城市以面对面访谈的形式进行。 2 2 ^(2){ }^{2} 总而言之，该问卷使用随机分层抽样方法对来自土耳其城市的 2422 个家庭的样本进行了调查。 3 3 ^(3){ }^{3} 在最终确定问卷之前，进行了一系列预测试。由于分析单位是家庭，因此在 18 岁及以上的人群中再次随机确定每个家庭的受访者。如果所选人员在访问时不在，则安排了预约，并且该住户进行了第二次访问。（如果此人仍然无法联系，则随机选择一个新住户。管理每份问卷大约需要 40 分钟。该组中的受访者在第一次访问时拒绝参与调查（主要表明时间压力）的总拒绝率 12 % ; 80 % 12 % ; 80 % 12%;80%12 \% ; 80 \% ，而其余受访者在最初同意后决定在访谈期间退出（都表明时间压力）。 4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} 表示
    • Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 212359 7630; fax: +90 2122872453.
      通讯作者。电话：+90 212359 7630;传真：+90 2122872453。
    E-mail address: begum.ozkaynak@boun.edu.tr (B. Özkaynak).
    电子邮件地址：begum.ozkaynak@boun.edu.tr （B. Özkaynak）。
  2. 1 1 ^(1){ }^{1} Nomenclature D’Unités Territoriales Statistiques (NUTS) are geo-code standards, developed and regulated by the European Union, for referencing the subdivisions of countries for statistical purposes. Turkey recently adopted NUTS2 version of this system, which comprises 26 regions. Istanbul is by itself classified as a NUTS2 region. For other regions we used population figures of cities in a given region as weights in randomly choosing one city from that region, giving us a total of 26 cities together with Istanbul.
    1 1 ^(1){ }^{1} Nomenclature D'Unités Territoriales Statistiques （NUTS） 是由欧盟制定和监管的地理编码标准，用于统计目的引用国家的细分。土耳其最近采用了该系统的 NUTS2 版本，该系统包括 26 个地区。伊斯坦布尔本身被归类为 NUTS2 地区。对于其他地区，我们使用给定地区城市的人口数据作为权重，从该地区随机选择一个城市，得出伊斯坦布尔总共有 26 个城市。
    2 2 ^(2){ }^{2} The company employed 18 supervisors and 120 interviewers in the field to administer the survey. The supervisors as well as the interviewers were given one full day of training about the specificities of the questionnaire instrument.
    2 2 ^(2){ }^{2} 该公司在现场雇佣了 18 名主管和 120 名采访员来管理调查。主管和访谈员接受了一整天的培训，了解问卷工具的特殊性。
    3 3 ^(3){ }^{3} The urban population consists of those living in the province and district centres and amounts to 75.5 % 75.5 % 75.5%75.5 \% of the total population in Turkey (TURKSTAT, 2009). Our study was confined only to the urban population since the share of electricity consumption, hence the related CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} emission, is almost negligible in the rural areas of Turkey.
    3 3 ^(3){ }^{3} 城市人口包括居住在省和地区中心的人，占 75.5 % 75.5 % 75.5%75.5 \% 土耳其总人口的比例（TURKSTAT，2009 年）。我们的研究仅限于城市人口，因为在土耳其农村地区，用电量份额（即相关 CO 2 CO 2 CO_(2)\mathrm{CO}_{2} 排放）几乎可以忽略不计。
    4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} The fact that interviewers presented an official letter from a prestigious public university stating that this was a scientific research study and all answers would be kept confidential helped reduce the rejection rate.
    4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} 面试官出示了一封来自著名公立大学的正式信函，声明这是一项科学研究，所有答案都将保密，这一事实有助于降低拒绝率。