TMTB EOD Wrap
Buonasera. QQQs +48bps led by China exposed names while non-profitable tech also outperformed. Chian HSX Index was +9% following the country’s stimulus announcements. Treasures got a bid on some weaker macro data with 2 year dropping 5bps while 10 year dipped 1.5bps. Fed expects now pricing in 40bps worth of cuts in each of the final two meetings of the year.
Let’s get to the recap…
Internet
China names ripped: JD +14%; BAB+8%; NTES +8%; BIDU +7.5% despite a dg at HSBC
PINS +4% after back to back initiations at Buy, this time from Opco saying 3p integrations with AMZN/GOOGL are driving improvements to auction density and pricing while seeing upside to DAU and engagement
CVNA -1.4% on some mixed 3p data
Housing strong: Z +2.5%; OPEN +6%; RDFN +3% as yields dipped lower
Large cap lagged: GOOGL +27bps; AMZN flat; META -20bps
CART -35bps as MS cut numbers on weaker advertising
UBER +3.6% on better weekly Yip data and RJ initiation which said its view that the Uber AV narrative will swing from perceived risk (est. ~2% of bookings in Top U.S. 25 markets assuming Waymo 1P at 20% market share) to tailwind. RJ Uber/Waymo scenario analysis sees a +1-2% revenue tailwind as most likely
LYFT +5% also yip uptick on weekly data
DASH +1.5% on positive RJ intiation
ETSY +35bps despite weaker weekly Yip data
NFLX +2.4% continues to break out to new highs
SNAP +3.5% after announcing Google Gemini integration in their AI
RBLX +3.5% after better Yip data saying bookings accelerated in August
ROKU +3.5% / RDDT +3% as BAML pitched at a favorite ideas call (SPOT +3% was also pitched)
SIRI -6% as MS resumed at Sell
EXPE +3% as Msci said GBs tracking modestly ahead of street driven by strength in booked room nights
Semis
MBLY +6% as gov’t planned to ban Chinese/Russian sw in connected vehicles
NVDA +4% got a bid late in the day as MS had a TSM (+4%) out saying TSMC pulled in CoWoS capacity expansion to 80k wafers per month to 2025 from 2026 vs 60-70k, particularly from NVDA prior as INTC outsourcing to TSMC remains an additional upside driver. Barrons also said Jensen done selling for now.
Other AI names strong: ARM +1%; AVGO +1% now close to new highs; MRVL -90bps continued weakness from yesterday
Analog names strong as well: TXN +50bps; ON +1%; NXPI +1%
Software
SNOW -70bps after pricing convert
U +8.5% continues to rip as more shorts cover and call volume surged (h/t Jefferies). Sandbagged guidance + better news flow from Create pricing changes + bad news all priced = things can’t get worse recipe for short covering
SMAR +6.5% as they announced they will be acquired by Blackstone for $65.50 a share. Continues to pay to buy the first PE takeover rumor on sw stocks
Cloud names mixed: DDOG +95bps; ESTC +1.5%; CFLT +60bps; MDB +16bps
MSFT +1% / ADBE +1%
HUBS +1% as Msci said gross registrations on track to improve sequentially and est’s tracking above street
Elsewhere
TSLA +2% on a couple positive sell-side notes calling out China strength. Msci also said Cybertruck and Model 3 order trends offsetting weaker Model Y in the US
PYPL +1% continues to grind
AAPL +40bps
Bullish and Bearish Option Flow
See you all tomorrow!
