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DB-清晨Reid_20240905_Watermark.pdf

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  1. 5 September 2024Deutsche BankResearchGlobal Economics Early Morning Reid Date Key Market Data(Index @ Close // Change)(S&P 500 @ 5520 // -0.16%)(STOXX Europe 600 @ 515 // -0.97%)(ITX Crossover @ 298 // +1)(Brent Oil^ @ 72.90 // -0.63%)(10yr Treasury^ @ 3.76 // -6 bp)(10yr Bund @ 2.22 // -5 bp)(Dollar Index^ @ 101.34 // -0.29%)(Further Fed hikes/cuts priced for 2024 @ -111 // -9 bp)(Further ECB hikes/cuts priced for 2024 @ -61 // -1 bp)^ - Change from previous day's 4:30 GMT to 04:30 GMTA cloud has lifted over our house as the kids were all back to school yesterday after a long and feral summer. To be fair Maisie is a wonderful girl and the twins are good boys individually. However together at home the twins are never more than 20 minutes away from a fight, bruises, scratches, and manic tears. 2 minutes later it's high pitched laughter and co-scheming. Repeat to fade. It is draining. At school they all behave impeccably so I’m lobbying for it to become a boarding school asap.Clouds continue over markets though with global bond yields continuing to tumble yesterday, as another batch of weak US data fuelled expectations that the Fed might cut rates by 50bps in just under two weeks. That led to some very significant market moves, with the 2s10s curve ending the day around the zero level for the first time in the last 2 years. We briefly traded in positive territory yesterday but haven't closed above zero since July 2022. This is the longest ever inversion for the 2s10s curve in available data stretching back well over 60 years. Given that inversions have historically been a leading indicator of recessions, the resteepening has previously led to suggestions that removing such an environment means a recession would now be less likely to happen. But sadly, the historic precedent isn’t particularly favourable on this front, as in previous cycles the final stage before the recession was actually a re-steepening of the curve back into positive territory. So we have to be cautious in being too optimistic about waving bye to an inversion. Henry wrote about this pattern last year, with a few charts on how this played out in previous cycles (link here).The trigger for yesterday's moves was the latest US JOLTS report of job openings, which showed that the labour market was weakening faster than previously Jim ReidHead of Global Economics and Thematic Research+44-20-754-72943Henry AllenMacro Strategist+44-20-754-11149Peter Sidorov, CFASenior Economist+1-585-615-0253Asim KaulResearch AssociateDeutsche Bank AGIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Macro StrategyDistributed on: 05/09/2024 05:32:12 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa
  2. 5 September 2024Early Morning ReidPage 2 Deutsche Bank AGthought. For instance, the number of job openings fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 7.673m in July (vs. 8.1m expected). And if you look at the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals, that also fell back to 1.07, which is now beneath its pre-Covid levels in 2019. So there’s growing evidence that the labour market is still weakening, backing up Chair Powell’s point at Jackson Hole that “labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019”.To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news from the report. The hires rate ticked back up to 3.5% in July, and the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs also rose to 2.1%. Moreover, we should bear in mind that this is still covering July, the same month as with the underwhelming jobs report a month ago, rather than a new period since then. So all eyes will remain on tomorrow’s jobs report for August to see if that deterioration continues, or whether the weaker July numbers look like more of a blip. Ahead of that today's services ISM will take on added significance given the nerves around at the moment.After the JOLTS report, investors dialled up the chance that the Fed would cut by 50bps in September, and futures were giving that a 44% chance by the close (up +7pps). That’s the highest probability on 50bps since August 13 and is now back close to a 50-50 call. Investors also moved to price in a more dovish rates path over the months ahead as well. For example, there are now 111bps of cuts priced in by the December meeting, up from 102bps the previous day.With more rapid cuts being priced in, US Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the 2yr yield (-10.9bps) fell to 3.76%, which is its lowest closing level since September 2022. The 10yr yield (-7.6ps) also fell to 3.76% also, which is its lowest close since July 2023 and marks the first time since July 2022 that the 2s10s slope has uninverted. Breakevens led the decline in yields with the 10yr (-5.2bps) ending the day at 2.06%, less than 1bp above its early August lows and otherwise its lowest level since January 2021. Over in Europe it was much the same story as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.3bps), OATs (-6.7bps) and BTPs (-8.8bps) all falling back.Alongside the JOLTS report, a few other factors supported that move to price in faster rate cuts. The first was the continued fall in oil prices, which is taking away one source of inflationary pressure. Indeed, yesterday saw Brent crude oil prices (-1.42%) fall for the fourth day in a row to $72.70/bbl, which is their lowest level since June 2023. This decline came even as Reuters reported that OPEC+ was close to agreeing a delay to the increase in oil production planned for October. The second came from the Bank of Canada, who cut rates by 25bps for a third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. Significantly, Governor Macklem also said that “if we need to take a bigger step, we will take a bigger step.” So there was an explicit acknowledgement that such an outcome was possible. Last but not least, the Fed’s Beige Book review of regional economic conditions added to the dovish mood, as 9 of the 12 regional Fed districts “reported flat or declining activity”.Against this backdrop, US equities held up relatively well, with the S&P 500 posting a modest -0.16% decline. In part, that was driven by the hope that the Fed would now deliver a larger 50bp cut. But unlike the original jobs report, the news from the JOLTS report didn’t lead to a sudden reassessment on how the economy was doing, given it was covering July anyway, where we’ve already got plenty of data for. Indeed, with the other data releases yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate actually ticked up slightly to an annualised +2.1% rate for Q3. So with
  3. 5 September 2024Early Morning ReidDeutsche Bank AG Page 3those various releases in hand, US equities held broadly steady. Energy (-1.42%) and information technology (-0.48%) stocks led the decline for the S&P 500, but its downside was limited by gains for defensive and rate sensitive sectors, notably utilities (+0.85%) and consumer staples (+0.52%). The Magnificent 7 were flat on the day (-0.00%), even as Nvidia (-1.66%) again declined after seeing the largest market cap fall of any global stock in history the previous day. See more about all the others in the top 10 in my CoTD here yesterday.Over in Europe, the picture was quite a bit more negative, but that mostly reflected a catchup to the slump later in the US session the previous day. That was evident by the STOXX 600 immediately falling lower after the open, but basically staying around that range for the rest of the day, closing -0.97% lower. Even so, that’s still a third consecutive decline for the STOXX 600, so that’s another index where September is living up to its reputation as a poor one for equities. Sentiment wasn’t exactly helped by the final August PMIs either, as the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised down two-tenths from the flash reading to 51.0.Asian equity markets are maintaining the risk-off start to the month with the Nikkei (-1.22%), Hang Seng (-0.45%) and KOSPI (-0.36%) also lower. Elsewhere, mainland Chinese stocks have held on to their minor gains with the CSI (+0.10%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.04%) both trading in the green. S&P (-0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.28%) futures are both slipping.Early morning data showed that Japan's real wages in July unexpectedly rose +0.4% y/y (v/s -0.6% expected), advancing for the second consecutive month, boosted by pay hikes and summer bonuses. It followed a +1.1% gain in June, the first gain in 27 months. Nominal wages grew by +3.6% y/y in July, a deceleration from June's +4.5% but surpassing market expectations of +2.9% gain. This strong performance is adding to speculation that the BOJ may look to hike again before the end of 2024 and perhaps helps explain the weak performance of Japanese equities overnight.To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s German factory orders for July, Euro Area retail sales for July, and the August construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann.Other Market Data(10y US Real Yield @ 1.69 // -2 bp)(10y US Breakevens @ 2.06 // -5 bp)(10y German Breakeven @ 1.75 // -3 bp)(ITX Europe 125 @ 54 // unch)(CDX 125 @ 52 // unch)(CDX HY - pts* @ 106.44 // +0.022)(ITX Sen Fin @ 62 // unch)(ITX Sub Fin @ 110 // -1)(CDX EM @ 97.2 // unch)(WTI Oil^ @ 69.41 // -0.72%)(EUR/USD^ @ 1.108 // +0.18%)(NIKKEI @ 36685 // -0.98%)(Hang Seng @ 17377 // -0.46%)(VIX @ 21.32 // +0.60)(Gold^ @ 2495 // -0.05%)
  4. 5 September 2024Early Morning ReidPage 4 Deutsche Bank AGKey Economic Data(Release // DB // Prev // Con)(ADP Employment Report // 140k // 122k // 144k)(Initial Jobless Claims // 225k // 231k // 230k)(Nonfarm Productivity // 2.3% // 0.4% // 2.5%)(ISM Services // 51.6 // 51.4 // 51.4)Topical Deutsche Bank publications:* Fixed Income Blog: The case for receiving the Sep FOMC, 04 Sep* IG & HY Strategy: Transatlantic Margin Divergence, 04 Sep* Focus Europe: What if? The Impact of Proposed US Tariffs on European Growth & Inflation, 03 Sep* IG & HY Strategy: Global Default Monitor, 02 SepAsim Kaul is an employee of Evalueserve Pvt. Ltd., a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank.
  5. 5 September 2024Early Morning ReidDeutsche Bank AG Page 5Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Jim Reid, Henry Allen, Peter Sidorov.
  6. 5 September 2024Early Morning ReidPage 6 Deutsche Bank AGAdditional InformationThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites.Effective 13 October 2023, Deutsche Bank AG acquired Numis Corporation Plc and its subsidiaries (the "Numis Group"). Numis Securities Limited ("NSL") is a member of the Numis Group and a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference Number: 144822). Deutsche Bank AG provides clients with, amongst other services, Investment Research services. NSL provides clients with, amongst other services, non-independent research services.During an initial integration process, the research departments of Deutsche Bank AG and NSL will remain operationally distinct. Consequently, disclosures relating to conflicts of interest that may exist for Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliates do not currently take into account the business and activities of the Numis Group. The conflicts of interest that may exist for the Numis Group, in relation to the provision of research, can be found on the Numis website at https://www.numis.com/legaland-regulatory/conditions-and-disclaimers-that-govern-research-contained-in-the-research-pages-of-this-website. The disclosures on this Numis webpage do not currently take into account the business and activities of Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliates which are not members of the Numis Group.Additionally, any detailed conflicts of interest disclosures pertaining to a specific recommendation or estimate made on a security mentioned in this report or which have been included in our most recently published company report or found on our global disclosure look-up page, do not currently take into account the business and activities of the Numis Group. Instead, details of detailed conflicts of interest disclosures for the Numis Group, relating to specific issuers or securities, can be found at: https://library.numis.com/regulatory_notice. The issuer/security-specific conflict of interest disclosures on this Numis webpage do not take into account the business and activities of Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates which are not members of the Numis Group.If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, trading and principal trading revenues.Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research Website (https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the covered company's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less than two weeks and no more than three months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that may have a nearterm or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if an opinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at defined intervals. Updates are at the sole discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst's judgment. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice, and investment transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance calculations exclude transaction costs, unless otherwise indicated. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other parties.
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