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Starbucks has added nearly 600 new stores in North America in the past four quarters. (Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)

Starbucks Will Get a Jolt. Its Stock Is a Buy.



is brewing plans for a turnaround after surprisingly weak 令人意外的疲弱 second-quarter earnings.

Same-store sales at the world’s largest coffee chain declined 3% in North America and 6% in international markets, the result of soft demand and more competition in China.
全球最大的咖啡连锁店的同店销售在北美下降了 3%,在国际市场下降了 6%,这是由于中国市场需求疲软和竞争加剧的结果。

The stock, which has slumped almost 17% this year, now looks oversold. Starbucks is still growing at a rapid pace and continues to adapt through smaller stores, greater efficiency, and diverse products to attract new customers. If those measures are successful, the stock could see a big bounce.
股票今年已下跌近 17%,现在看起来被卖得过头了。星巴克仍在快速增长,并通过更小的店铺、更高效率和多样化产品吸引新客户。如果这些措施成功,股票可能会出现大幅反弹。

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Americans are also drinking coffee more than ever. The National Coffee Association reports that two out of three adults in the U.S. this year had coffee in the past day. The share of consumers who bought from coffee shops in the past day nearly doubled to 15% in 2024 from 8% the year before.
美国人喝咖啡的次数也比以往任何时候都要多。美国国家咖啡协会报告称,今年美国三分之二的成年人在过去一天里喝过咖啡。在过去一天里从咖啡店购买咖啡的消费者比例从去年的 8%翻了近一倍,达到了 15%。

The U.S. coffee shop market grew 8% over the past year to nearly $50 billion, now standing 4% above prepandemic levels, according to the Project Café USA 2024, an industry report from coffee consulting firm World Coffee Portal. And Starbucks, with more than 16,000 outlets in the U.S., remains the leader, with a 40% market share.
根据咖啡咨询公司 World Coffee Portal 发布的《Project Café USA 2024》行业报告显示,美国咖啡店市场在过去一年增长了 8%,达到近 500 亿美元,目前比疫情前水平高出 4%。拥有超过 16,000 家门店的星巴克仍然是市场领导者,市场份额达到 40%。

“It’s tough to keep growing the same-store sales, but Starbucks remains a formidable brand that’s operating at an unprecedented scale in the global coffee market.” says Jeffrey Young, CEO of Allegra Group, the parent company of World Coffee Portal.
“要保持同店销售的增长并不容易,但星巴克仍然是一个在全球咖啡市场上以前所未有的规模运营的强大品牌。” Allegra Group 首席执行官杰弗里·杨说道,Allegra Group 是世界咖啡门户的母公司。

But Starbucks is facing some headwinds. Inflation has curtailed consumers’ willingness to spend. Boycotts stemming from its position on the Israel-Hamas war, and workers’ unionization efforts are taking a toll. Boutique coffee shops and smaller chains like Dutch Bros


and Scooter’s Coffee are growing quickly, elbowing in on Starbucks’ business.

Instead of getting a cheaper item on the menu, consumers often stop buying from Starbucks entirely and get their fix at convenience stores or at home. And, Starbucks doesn’t get the trade-down business from higher-end brands because it’s already the premium player in the coffee market.

“The casual drinker who might stop by for an afternoon cold brew or weekend Frappuccino has fallen off the map,” says Morningstar analyst Sean Dunlop.

Still, Starbucks continues to grow. In the past four quarters, it added nearly 600 new stores in North America and 1,700 overseas. In emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and Latin America, penetration is still low, presenting room for growth.
尽管如此,星巴克仍在继续增长。在过去的四个季度中,它在北美新增了近 600 家新店,在海外新增了 1,700 家。在印度、东南亚和拉丁美洲等新兴市场,渗透率仍然较低,为增长提供了空间。

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This could help buffer any short-term weakness in the domestic market. Despite the expanding footprint, there is little sign of cannibalizing. Average annual sales for company-owned stores continue to rise, reaching $2.3 million in fiscal 2023.
这有助于缓解国内市场的短期弱势。尽管业务范围不断扩大,但几乎没有自相残杀的迹象。公司自营店的平均年销售额继续上升,已达到 2023 财年的 230 万美元。

“They are the dominant player of an addictive product. You really can’t get a better business model than that,” said Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group


, which owns the stock.

Beyond the unparalleled scale, what’s kept Starbucks ahead is its ability to continuously innovate its business model and products.

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The company has gone through a major shift toward cold beverages in the past decade; those now accounts for over 60% of its drink orders. Many are customized with flavored syrups and extra espresso shots, which not only differentiate the brand from competitors but also are more expensive.
公司在过去的十年中经历了向冷饮的重大转变;这些现在占其饮料订单的 60%以上。许多饮料都是定制的,配有调味糖浆和额外的浓缩咖啡,这不仅使品牌与竞争对手有所区别,而且价格更昂贵。

And Starbucks continues to roll out new products to attract younger customers, who are increasingly looking for interesting flavors and textures. Lavender-flavored drinks, which made their debut this spring, have been hits, according to the firm.

Starbucks also has launched drinks with soft jelly balls—so-called “pearls”—and new energy beverages are on the way. Those could help boost sales in the afternoon, says Eric Strange, a portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor, whose fund owns the stock.

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While Starbucks prides itself as a “third place” outside of work and home for social gatherings, it’s quickly turning into a convenience-focused brand. Much of its new stores in the past few years came with drive-through lanes, and mobile orders now make up 31% of total transactions.
星巴克自豪地将自己定位为工作和家庭之外的“第三空间”,用于社交聚会,但它迅速转变为一个以便利为重点的品牌。在过去几年里,许多新店都配备了驶入式通道,移动订单现在占总交易量的 31%。

The ballooning number of orders and special customer requests have brought some operational challenges. In the latest earnings call, management noted that a midteens percentage of Starbucks’ mobile orders weren’t completed, likely due to long waiting time.

The company is taking steps to become more efficient, adopting, for instance, a compact workstation that eliminates the need for baristas to move back and forth when making a cold drink. It’s also rolling out machines to brew coffee more quickly and keep food warm and ready for pickup.

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“As consumers start to feel better, Starbucks will get a transaction lift from some of these investments they’re making now,” says Morningstar’s Dunlop.

“Our team is working hard to reaccelerate growth and momentum in our U.S. business,” Starbucks told Barron’s.

A social media boycott, which stems from Starbuck’s dispute with the Workers United union, hurt sales, according to the company, which maintains that misinformation was a cause of the boycott.

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But management has been negotiating a contract with the union since April, and thawing relations could help quell some of the negative media sentiment about the company. “It looks like Starbucks and the union have come to an agreement not to drag each other through the mud in public,” says BTIG analyst Peter Saleh. “Instead, they’ll negotiate privately, which is probably a good thing for sales in the near term.”
但自四月以来,管理层一直在与工会谈判合同,关系的缓和可能有助于平息一些关于公司的负面媒体情绪。“看起来星巴克和工会已经达成协议,不会在公开场合互相抹黑,”BTIG 分析师彼得·萨莱表示。“相反,他们将私下进行谈判,这对短期销售可能是件好事。”

The stock is down to around $80, 29% below its recent peak in April 2023. Shares are now trading at 20 times next fiscal year earnings, much lower than the five-year average of 28 times. It’s a rare opportunity for investors to buy now.
股价下跌至约 80 美元,比 2023 年 4 月的最高点低 29%。股票现在以未来财政年度收益的 20 倍交易,远低于过去五年的平均 28 倍。对于投资者来说,现在是一个难得的购买机会。

Among analysts polled by FactSet, the average target price is $88, indicating a 9% gain. But the upside can be much larger: Earnings are estimated to grow 13% year-over-year to $4.07 per share in fiscal 2025. If the valuation recovers to the five-year average, the stock could breach $114.
在 FactSet 调查的分析师中,平均目标价为 88 美元,表明涨幅为 9%。但上涨空间可能更大:预计 2025 财年每股收益将同比增长 13%,达到 4.07 美元。如果估值恢复到五年平均水平,股价可能突破 114 美元。

The headwinds likely won’t disappear in one or two quarters. Flattish sales and elevated capital expenditures could squeeze earnings and cash flow in the short term, but the issues seem more transitory than structural.

“You have to be patient, but if you can, you’re getting a premium brand name at a discount,” says NFJ Investment’s McKinney.
“你必须要有耐心,但如果你能的话,你将以折扣价获得一个优质品牌名称,”NFJ 投资的麦金尼说。

Write to Evie Liu at
evie.liu@barrons.comExternal link