Mounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 8/9/2024 were ~354,700/198,600 (vs. ~384,400/214,700 last week) per IQVIA data. Zepbound TRx/NRx scripts were ~134,300/102,300 (vs. ~128,100/98,600 last week). We see >20% upside to 2024/2025 Mounjaro+Zepbound ests.

We think downside on costs has played out, ASX's franchise is strong, it has operating leverage to a capital market recovery, and we see 5% earnings growth in FY25E. But to sustain growth for longer, ASX needs to convert its new product opportunities. Remain EW with ASX not cheap on ~ 26x FY26E PE.

We expect BI, BoT and BoK to stay on hold next week, but we are on the lookout for any signs of shifts in their forward guidance on whether they may signal rate cuts soon.

Risk Reward for Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) has been updated

Yongda has issued a profit warning, expecting its 1H24 earnings to decline by no more than 75% YoY / 39% HoH to >Rmb102mn, due to: 1) Drop in new car volumes, as Porsche China sales fell 33% YoY and BMW China fell 4% YoY in 1H24; and 2) drop in new car margins, as extra rebates were insufficient to offset widening retail discounts. We think the profit warning is not a complete surprise – in our...

We provide holistic daily data set and charts for Japan interest rates. This includes important data such as JGB, OIS, ASW, JGB Futures and JGBi.

Risk Reward for GQG Partners Inc (GQG.AX) has been updated.

Although JD's 2Q24 results beat on earnings, its revenue growth slowdown to 1.2% YoY should concern the market. Against the backdrop of weak consumption and more intense competition in e-Commerce, we don’t expect JD's revenue growth to recover meaningfully in 2H24.

虽然京东2Q24利润大幅超于预期，收入仍然有压力。鉴于整体消费疲软和激烈的电商竞争，我们对京东下半年的收入增速预测比较保守。

Core ERP remains solid and weakness mainly comes from non-core industry cloud. Kingdee reiterated guidance of Rmb900mn OCF in 2024 and breakeven by 2025. We think this should help to stabilize recent market concerns on macro weakness.

Strong 2Q24 NP beat, largely driven by improved risk-loss ratio and solid contribution from subsidiaries. New shareholder return policy implies further upside to DPS, but need more patience until we get full details on value-up measures.

The UK Rates Monitor provides relative value signals across the gilt curve based on relative curvature.

Risk Reward for 3P Learning (3PL.AX) has been updated

Risk Reward for Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR.AX) has been updated

Web traffic trends in July reflected improvement at GDDY/WIX, relative to declines at LZ. Web trends data reads aligned with macro commentary heard on Q2 eps, as solo-preneur exposed web builders have proven more durable than feared, while new leadership seeks to insulate LZ from macro volatility.

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Milder card losses vs MSe take our 3Q card EPS up 2%. Stabilizing credit story continues, with DQs slowing y/y for a 9th consecutive month, NCOs stable/slower for 4 months. Have losses definitively peaked, or will they just plateau from here? Expect evolving macro picture to have a say.

WBTN shares have declined 40% since its first results as a public company. We have heard consistent investor concerns following weaker than expected 2Q results/3Q guidance and the company will now face higher scrutiny as it works to scale its ads and North American businesses. Remain EW.

We remove Progressive from Top Pick, as 2Q24 earnings call and July results demonstrated that the catalysts are playing out as we expected. We maintain our Overweight rating; a strong underwriting trend and durable path to growth should support long term share price performance.

What's new: On August 15, 2024, Innolux announced the sale of its Fab 4 (located in Tainan, Taiwan) to TSMC (2330. TW, covered by Charlie Chan) for NT$17.1bn. Innolux guides for NT$14.7bn of disposal gains from this divestment. Our view: This is consistent with its strategy in disposing or leveraging its legacy display capacity for its future diversification efforts. We estimate that the deal...

Another quarter validating the market share gaining, higher margin growing profit story. We lay out takeaways below that were not in the release or the conference call. Raising PT to $82.

COHR's FQ4 print beat expectations slightly, with AI demand commentary strong. Majority of the call was spent on new CEO laying out the ongoing evaluation towards making COHR a more focused, profitable co. Compelling story given CEO history, but will need more details given competitiveness of space.

UST yields rise after strong retail sales and low jobless claims; Fed members are "open" to cutting rates soon; EGBs sell off amid improved outlook on US growth; local data support AUD and GBP; BSP cuts rates; strong US consumer supports equities; DXY at 103.05 (+0.5%); US 10y at 3.913% (+7.8bp).

MELI continues to broaden its Fintech offering; we see Commerce tie-ins and an innovation track record as competitive advantages, and management struck a positive tone around the profitable growth drivers for Pago & Credito. With incremental conviction in the Fintech outlook, we reiterate OW MELI.

4Q beat & ~in-line ‘25e guidance came in better-than-feared against recent peer results & broader macro/consumer anxiety. Both 1Q & FY guidance reflect a consistent narrative from ’24, & appear achievable to beat-able. Transaction commitment remains, with Sept. the next milestone.

Market sentiment dropped slightly with softening macro condition and lackluster 2Q result season so far. YTD Northbound flows turned negative intra-year for the first time in history. We expect market volatility to remain relatively high and advise positioning more defensively in the near term.

Post monthly metrics and 2Q24 earnings, we lower 3Q24e EPS by 13c (-15%) to 73c on lower NIM and lower interest earning assets. We lower '24/'25 EPS by -7%/-10% to $3.05/$3.53 on lower interest income. PT decreases -$1 to $70 on 15x discounted '26 PE multiple unchanged; remain EW.

We highlight key changes to the clinical trials of companies under coverage occurring from 8/7-8/14. See inside for a full list of all changes.

Risk Reward for Telstra Corporation (TLS.AX) has been updated

Data NOW highlights specific data points that reflect an important relationship for the fundamentals of a company. We focus on GigaDevice MCU's spot price in the channel market vs. MCU companies' share prices. Preliminary Aug -24 pricing is down 2% M/M.

Data NOW highlights specific data points that reflect an important relationship for the fundamentals of a company. We focus on STM32 price in the channel market vs. MCU companies' share prices. The preliminary Aug price is up 1% M/M.

Q2 in-line with expectations, reflecting resiliency against macro/SMB headwinds and better than feared following more volatile prints from peers. Announcement of CEO successor removes key narrative overhang, and still see NICE as the best way to play $26bn CCaaS / Convo AI opportunity. Remain OW.

Weak Q2 results driven by the IoT Solutions business due to timing of deals. Weaker outlook with cost conscious customer behavior and slower purchasing cycles. While 25% RIF to drive cost efficiencies and alignment to higher growth businesses, we need more line of slight/consistency in growth.

Although JD's 2Q24 results beat on earnings, its revenue growth slowdown to 1.2% YoY should concern the market. Against the backdrop of weak consumption and more intense competition in e-Commerce, we don’t expect JD's revenue growth to recover meaningfully in 2H24.

We analyze price action in US interest rate volatility markets, particularly in OTC (vanilla, curve, and forward vol) and CBOT options. Data are as of August 15, 2024.

Effective immediately, we are discontinuing coverage of Circuit Fabology Microelectronics (CFMEE, 688630.SS) due to a reallocation of resources. All prior research on CFMEE should no longer be relied upon.

The 1H24 result was in line with recently lowered expectation. The large enterprise market held up well, and the strong contract growth paves the way for revenue rebound, while SME business lines face macro headwind.

Coming out of 2Q earnings, MTCH largely reiterated back half numbers while BMBL significantly lowered its guidance. We believe the divergence is more than just user trends, and can be attributed to the difference in how Tinder and Bumble are approaching the Innovator's Dilemma.

Revenue declined 6.2% YoY, to Rmb7.9bn, 12% below MSe. The revenue decline was driven by an 11.5% YoY decline in cornerstone business (ITO/BPO) and offset slightly by 2% YoY growth in cloud intelligence business. Despite a lower cornerstone mix, gross margin still declined 0.6ppt YoY, to 23.1%. This stems from deepened pricing pressure from a core customer. Opex was down 5.7% YoY, mostly in G&A...

To boost monthly sales, ZEEKR refreshed its 001/007 with upgraded smart driving systems, aiming to take on major EV peers that deploy mapless city NOA functions. We also provide a quick 2Q preview on ZEEKR and read-across to Geely.

Result and guidance in line, potential commercial portfolio divestment a positive for portfolio mix and growth, however likely creates near term earnings uncertainty. Maintain OW.

Xingyu's earnings growth was back to 30%+ YoY in 2Q24, thanks to volume contributions from Chery and Aito, suggesting further diversification away from JV brands like VW and Toyota and into local Chinese brands. Margin was still under pressure, but recovered from 1Q trough.

2Q24 revenue dropped by 4%, 9ppt below our cautious forecast of +5%, likely due to intensified competition and less investment in marketing in the previous two quarters. Its core video creativity business booked a sequential decline. Even if adjusting for the delta of contract liabilities (Rmb5mn), revenue growth remains in the negative range. The negative revenue growth could significantly...

At its 2Q24 analyst briefing on August 15, Eclat reaffirmed that orders from customers have been on track to meet forecasts, with normal fulfillment rate and new customers continuing to rise in the mix, in line with the plan. We stay OW.

Risk Reward for Magellan Financial (MFG.AX) has been updated

Total revenue: Rmb243.2bn (+4% yoy), 2-3% below our estimate and consensus. Customer Management Revenue (CMR): Rmb80.1bn (+0.6% yoy), 2% below our and consensus forecasts; GMV up in high single digits. Adjusted EBITA: Rmb45.0bn (-0.7% yoy), 5% above our and 7.5% above consensus forecasts. Adjusted EBITA margin of 18.5%, 1.3ppt above our estimate. Adjusted net profit: Rmb40.7bn (-9.4% yoy), 4.2%...

Total revenue: Rmb291bn (+1.2% yoy, vs. +7.0% in 1Q24), in line with Bloomberg consensus (BBG). JD Retail revenue: Rmb257bn (+1.5% yoy vs. +6.8% in 1Q24), 1% below Visible Alpha consensus (VA). Electronics and home appliance revenue: Rmb145bn (-5% yoy vs. +5.3% in 1Q24), 2% below VA. General merchandise revenue: Rmb89bn (+9% yoy, vs. +8.6% in 1Q24), in line with VA. Marketplace and marketing...

We believe share price softness post 2Q results is due to macro concerns and limited upside to cons. est. We are constructive on Tencent's outlook with (1) accelerating 2H games revenue growth, (2) VA to provide a buffer for ads growth, and (3) margin expansion tailwinds from S&M savings. Top Pick, OW.

Please use the links in the email below to access each data report. US Liquid Rates TrackerThe US Liquid Rates Tracker provides detail on the US Treasury Nominal curve, STRIPS, and TIPS.Treasury & TIPS Summary (Excel version)The excel version of US Liquid Rates Tracker provides a downloadable spreadsheet for US Treasury Nominal curve and TIPS bonds.Treasury Relative Value ReportThe Treasury...

Futures Pricing: We determine a model value for the two front 2y note, 3y note, 5y note, 10y note and 30y bond futures contracts. We use this to indicate how rich or cheap the contract is trading. Additionally, we determine the DV01 of the contract.Deliverable Basket: We display market information for each of the bonds in the basket. Included in these are bond yields, repo rates, and gross and ...

The US Liquid Rates Tracker provides detail on the US Treasury Nominal curve, STRIPS, and TIPS.

The Treasury Relative Value Report provides detail beyond the Liquid Rates Tracker on the nominal Treasury curve, comparing bonds across several relative value metrics.

The excel version of US Liquid Rates Tracker provides a downloadable spreadsheet for US Treasury Nominal curve and TIPS bonds.

Risk Reward for Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) has been updated

We provide holistic daily data set and charts for Japan interest rates. This includes important data such as JGB, OIS, ASW, JGB Futures and JGBi.

Risk Reward for Genting Singapore Ltd (GENS.SI) has been updated

China RevPAR/ADR -9%/-8% YoY for the week ended August 10 (vs. -14%/-11% YoY in July), the first sign of bottoming out. China's domestic and inbound/outbound air pax grew 6% YoY and 71% YoY during Jul 1-Aug 12 respectively according to Umetrip.

Risk Reward for Centuria Office REIT (COF.AX) has been updated

Risk Reward for Arena REIT (ARF.AX) has been updated

We like the update GMG provided at the FY24 results. FY25 EPS guidance of +9% growth was below consensus +12%, but first-time guidance has typically been conservative. Only 100MW of data centres were completed in FY24, but we think this is on-track to lift substantially by FY27+.

The UK Rates Monitor provides relative value signals across the gilt curve based on relative curvature.

Continued challenging markets have seen a further downgrade to FY24 expectations, essentially eliminating all profit for the year. While issues are likely cyclical/temporary, we don't expect a full recovery in FY25 and lower earnings will see leverage remain elevated. Retain EW.

While F4Q results at the Las Vegas Sphere were mixed, the bigger news came as Sphere failed to amend its Networks term loan and entered into a "workout" with its lenders. The potential for debt forgiveness offsets our lowered estimates. There remains a wide range of outcomes for SPHR equity.

A historically strong qtr on top line, and recent trends still robust, if understood and reflected in stock price. Much seems to be going right with the turnaround, to EAT's credit. Lower flow through and 25 guide reset investor expectations. Bulls may still argue there is dry powder to beat 25.

We hosted investor meetings with DUK management last week. Load growth and capex upside ahead while regulatory execution is on track. Raising our price target to recognize low regulatory risk, stable balance sheet, defensive characteristics, and data center upside.

July web traffic & app download data shows broadly weak trends across EdTech, suggesting top of funnel headwinds across EdTech, not only for Chegg. The weakness in the data is unsurprising giving relatively weak outlook provided by EdTech companies on Q2 earnings calls.

July jobs growth beat for a fourth consecutive month, but record participation saw unemployment tick up. Details in the report were positive and suggest a still strong labour market that is loosening only gradually.

Zoryve franchise sales were 5%+ ahead of cons., with a slight miss on PsO but with seb. derm. ~20% ahead. Additionally, blended GTN for Zoryve improved from low 60% to high 50% Q/Q. Overall, we see 2Q as a positive quarter and expect the Zoryve AD Rx trajectory to be the next area of focus for ARQT.

LITE posted small upside in FQ4, to top and bottom line. LITE highlighted a second major 800G win and some telco recovery, along with growing traction with other datacomm customers. Commentary gives us more confidence in the model, but valuation in combination with unanswered questions leave us EW.