Airbnb Is a Great Company That Had a Rough Week. Its Stock Is a Buy.
爱彼迎是一家优秀的公司，但本周经历了艰难时刻。其股票值得购买。

Investors 投资者 have soured 已经恶化 on the lodging platform as growth has slowed, as evidenced by the company’s disappointing third-quarter financial guidance. The shares fell more than 10% on the week, to $115. The stock is trading for just over half of the peak it reached in early 2021, after the company’s spectacular initial public offering. Most Wall Street analysts have Neutral or Sell ratings on the shares.
在住宿平台上，增长放缓，公司的第三季度财务指引令人失望。该股本周下跌超过 10%，至 115 美元。该股票的交易价格仅为 2021 年初达到的峰值的一半多一点，此前公司进行了令人瞩目的首次公开募股。大多数华尔街分析师对该股持中性或卖出评级。

The selloff offers a good entry point for investors in a company that dominates the short-term rental market worldwide, with eight million active listings, more than $80 billion of annual gross bookings, and $11 billion of annual sales.
此次抛售为投资者提供了一个良好的入场点，该公司在全球短期租赁市场中占据主导地位，拥有八百万个活跃房源，年总预订额超过 800 亿美元，年销售额达到 110 亿美元。

“The setup is good,” says Richard Clarke, a Bernstein analyst. “Airbnb should continue to gain share from hotels and become ever more global. There is huge optionality with the business.” He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $174 for the stock, a 51% increase from its current value.
“这个局势很好，”伯恩斯坦分析师理查德·克拉克说。“Airbnb 应该继续从酒店中获得市场份额，并变得越来越全球化。这个业务有巨大的选择性。”他对该股票给予了优于大盘的评级，目标价为 174 美元，比当前价值上涨 51%。

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky has acknowledged that Airbnb has done little outside its core business and says that the company plans to change that. Clarke sees opportunities in travel experiences, like tours and cooking classes, which the company plans to roll out in 2025; sponsored listings allowing hosts to pay for better placement; the introduction of a loyalty program; and a property-management business.
Airbnb 首席执行官布赖恩·切斯基承认，Airbnb 在核心业务之外做得很少，并表示公司计划改变这一点。克拉克看到了旅行体验的机会，比如旅游和烹饪课程，公司计划在 2025 年推出；赞助列表允许房东支付更好的展示位置；推出忠诚度计划；以及物业管理业务。

Plus, plenty of open space remains in the world for the San Francisco-based company, as most of its business is in five countries: the U.S., France, the U.K., Australia, and Canada.
此外，旧金山总部的公司在全球仍有大量开放空间，因为其大部分业务集中在五个国家：美国、法国、英国、澳大利亚和加拿大。

Airbnb stock isn’t a bargain, but it is cheaper now than at any time since its IPO. Shares are trading for about 26 times projected 2024 earnings of $4.23 a share, and 23 times estimated 2025 profits of $4.60 a share. These are conservatively calculated earnings estimates that include the expense of the company’s sizable stock compensation.
爱彼迎的股票并不是便宜货，但现在的价格比其首次公开募股以来的任何时候都要便宜。股票的交易价格约为 2024 年预计每股收益 4.23 美元的 26 倍，以及 2025 年预计每股利润 4.60 美元的 23 倍。这些是保守计算的收益估计，包含了公司可观的股票补偿费用。

As an intermediary between hosts and guests, Airbnb doesn’t require much capital. It generates significant free cash flow and the industry’s best margins. The company has ramped up its stock repurchases with $1.5 billion so far this year, and doesn’t pay a dividend.
作为房东和客人之间的中介，Airbnb 不需要太多资本。它产生了可观的自由现金流和行业最佳的利润率。今年迄今为止，公司已增加了 15 亿美元的股票回购，并且不支付股息。

The stock trades in line with the valuations of hotel leaders Hilton Worldwide Holdings

HLT

0.62%

该股票的交易与酒店领袖希尔顿全球控股的估值一致 and Marriott International, and at a premium to online travel providers Booking Holdings

BKNG

1.42%

和万豪国际，并且高于在线旅游供应商 Booking Holdings 的溢价 and Expedia

EXPE

10.21%

 和 Expedia.

Airbnb has a formidable balance sheet with nearly $10 billion of net cash and short-term investments, almost 15% of its current market value of $73 billion. Net cash could double over the next three years depending on the level of buyback activity.
Airbnb 拥有强大的资产负债表，净现金和短期投资接近 100 亿美元，几乎占其当前市场价值 730 亿美元的 15%。净现金在未来三年内可能翻倍，具体取决于回购活动的水平。

While Airbnb’s second-quarter earnings topped expectations, third-quarter guidance was a disappointment. Airbnb sees 8% to 10% revenue growth, about four percentage points below expectations, and no year-over-year growth in pretax cash flow, against estimates of about a 10% gain. It cited higher marketing spending and “slowing in demand from U.S. guests.”
尽管 Airbnb 第二季度的收益超出预期，但第三季度的指引令人失望。Airbnb 预计收入增长为 8%至 10%，约低于预期四个百分点，且税前现金流没有同比增长，而预期约为 10%的增长。它提到更高的营销支出和“来自美国客人的需求放缓”。

Analyst Brad Erickson of RBC Capital Markets wrote that “kicking up marketing spend at a moment when demand is softening tends to be the ultimate backbreaker for an Internet stock in our experience.”
分析师布拉德·埃里克森（Brad Erickson）来自 RBC 资本市场，他写道：“在需求减弱的时刻增加营销支出，往往是我们经验中互联网股票的最终致命打击。”

Chesky wouldn’t provide any guidance beyond the current quarter, in keeping with company practice. “You get a fear factor,” Clarke says. “Investors over-extrapolate short-term trends.”
切斯基不会提供超出当前季度的任何指导，这符合公司的惯例。“你会感受到一种恐惧因素，”克拉克说。“投资者会过度推测短期趋势。”

“We feel that our growth strategy will more than offset any transitory macro trends,” says Ellie Mertz, Airbnb’s chief financial officer. A key reason for Airbnb’s
“我们认为我们的增长战略将超过任何短期宏观趋势，”Airbnb 首席财务官 Ellie Mertz 说。Airbnb 的一个关键原因是 high profit margins 高利润率 is strong consumer brand recognition, she says. About 90% of the traffic to the website comes directly, meaning Airbnb pays relatively little to drive consumers to its platform.
强大的消费者品牌认知，她说。大约 90%的网站流量是直接来的，这意味着 Airbnb 在吸引消费者到其平台上时支付的费用相对较少。

To stay ahead of rivals, Airbnb has improved the traveler experience. The company has culled 200,000 listings and added a guest favorite icon on rentals that have garnered high scores from travelers. That’s all part of its efforts to improve reliability, which Chesky admitted is the main reason travelers choose hotels over Airbnb.
为了在竞争中保持领先，Airbnb 改善了旅行者的体验。该公司删除了 200,000 个房源，并在获得旅行者高分的租赁上添加了客人最爱图标。这都是其提高可靠性努力的一部分，切斯基承认这是旅行者选择酒店而非 Airbnb 的主要原因。

Like other founder CEOs such as Mark Zuckerberg of Meta Platforms

META

1.60%

像 Meta Platforms 的创始人首席执行官马克·扎克伯格一样 and Elon Musk of Tesla, Chesky, 42, is an asset who brings a passion to the business.
和特斯拉的埃隆·马斯克，42 岁的切斯基是一个为业务带来热情的资产。

Airbnb has dealt with other setbacks, including a new law last year in New York City, one of the company’s largest markets, that crimped short-term rentals and led to a sharp drop in business.
Airbnb 面临过其他挫折，包括去年在纽约市出台的一项新法律，该市是公司最大的市场之一，这项法律限制了短期租赁，导致业务急剧下降。

Consumer-friendly California began requiring that Airbnb disclose some fees related to short-term rentals in response to complaints that the company wasn’t transparent about them.
加利福尼亚州为了保护消费者，开始要求 Airbnb 披露与短期租赁相关的一些费用，以回应对该公司不透明的投诉。

Chesky said on the earnings call that there is a place for hotels and Airbnbs. If you’re staying for a night or in some business situations, he said, “a hotel is better.” But if you’re with a group, traveling for more than three nights, or in a nonurban area, “Airbnb is better.”
切斯基在财报电话会议上表示，酒店和 Airbnb 都有其存在的价值。他说：“如果你只住一晚或在某些商务情况下，酒店更好。”但如果你和一群人一起旅行，超过三晚，或者在非城市地区，“Airbnb 更好。”

Hotels still outdraw Airbnb by a ratio of nine to one. That’s a big opportunity, and a reason to stick with the well-managed industry leader after its recent setback.
酒店的客流量仍然是 Airbnb 的九倍。这是一个巨大的机会，也是近期遭遇挫折后继续支持这一管理良好的行业领导者的理由。

Write to Andrew Bary at
写信给安德鲁·巴里 andrew.bary@barrons.com