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点击下面的 "FOLLOW"(关注)按钮,订阅《亚太地区起步》周刊。
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MXAPJ gained 2.1%, led by Hong Kong (+6%), China (+4%), and Taiwan (+1%), while Singapore and Philippines (flat) underperformed. Autos and Insurance outperformed Software, Capital Goods and Energy sectors. Asian FX modestly appreciated against USD. The region saw US$1.8bn foreign buying, led by Taiwan (+US$1.1bn). The FOMC announced it will start slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff in June, and noted a lack of further progress toward the 2% inflation targets, while Chair Powell strongly pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes. In China, both industrial profits and revenue fell notably in March, while April manufacturing PMIs were better than expected. The PBOC's Q1 surveys suggest improved loan demand and consumption propensity but deteriorated house price expectations. Policymakers appeared less concerned about near-term growth but maintained their supportive policy stance in the Politburo meeting. HK GDP rebounded notably in Q1 while retail sales fell in March. Korea had a broad-based rebound in exports in April, while IP sharply pulled back and inflation edged down. Key data/events next week: Indonesia GDP (Mon); Philippines, Thailand & Taiwan CPI, RBA meeting (Tue); Taiwan trade (Wed); China trade & money supply, Philippines GDP, BNM meeting (Thu)
在香港(+6%)、中国(+4%)和台湾(+1%)的带动下,MXAPJ 指数上涨 2.1%,而新加坡和菲律宾(持平)表现不佳。汽车和保险板块的表现优于软件、资本货物和能源板块。亚洲外汇对美元小幅升值。在台湾(+11 亿美元)的带动下,该地区出现了 18 亿美元的外国买盘。FOMC宣布将于6月开始放缓资产负债表的缩减步伐,并指出在实现2%的通胀目标方面缺乏进一步进展,同时主席鲍威尔强烈反对加息的可能性。在中国,3 月份工业利润和收入均显著下降,而 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数好于预期。中国人民银行第一季度调查显示,贷款需求和消费倾向有所改善,但房价预期有所恶化。在政治局会议上,政策制定者似乎对近期经济增长的担忧有所减少,但维持了支持性的政策立场。香港第一季度本地生产总值显著反弹,但 3 月份零售销售额下降。韩国 4 月份出口广泛反弹,而知识产权大幅回落,通胀率略有下降。下周主要数据/事件印尼 GDP(周一);菲律宾、泰国和台湾 CPI,澳大利亚央行会议(周二);台湾贸易(周三);中国贸易和货币供应,菲律宾 GDP,印度国家银行会议(周四)
Performance Review: Asian equities have rebounded from their ytd lows, with China ralling 22% from its January low. The outperformance between MSCI Asia ex-China/HK and China/HK markets since 2023 has recently narrowed to 36pp from 48pp in early March. Overall, MXAPJ gained 3% ytd, led by India, Taiwan, and China Offshore, while Hong Kong, Thailand, and Indonesia underperformed. Among sectors, Media & Ent, Utilities, and Energy gained the most. Looking forward, seasonality suggests weakened performance from May to Sep with a better July in between.
业绩回顾:亚洲股市已从年内低点反弹,中国股市从 1 月份的低点反弹了 22%。自 2023 年以来,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)亚洲(中国/香港除外)市场与中国/香港市场的跑赢大市幅度从 3 月初的 48 个百分点收窄至 36 个百分点。总体而言,在印度、台湾和中国离岸的带动下,MXAPJ指数年内上涨3%,而香港、泰国和印尼表现不佳。在各行业中,媒体与实体、公用事业和能源行业涨幅最大。展望未来,季节性因素表明 5 月至 9 月表现疲软,7 月表现较好。
ERLI and AMBI update: Our ERLI model projects milder earnings downgrades to continue amid resilient growth data, while our Asia Bear Market Indicator stayed around 50% amid mixed data between the US ISM PMI and regional growth along with marginally higher CDS spreads.
ERLI 和 AMBI 更新:我们的 ERLI 模型预测,在经济增长数据具有韧性的情况下,将继续出现较温和的盈利下调,而在美国 ISM PMI 和地区经济增长数据好坏参半,以及 CDS 息差小幅上升的情况下,我们的亚洲熊市指标保持在 50%左右。
CY1Q24 Result Summary: Regional Q1 earnings are broadly positive so far, with 49% beats vs. 30% misses and a median surprise of +5%, while China A results concluded below expectations.
24 财年第一季度业绩摘要:到目前为止,各地区的第一季度财报普遍向好,49%的财报好于 30%的财报差,惊喜中位数为 +5%,而中国 A 股的财报低于预期。
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部
For details, please see May '24 pulse check: ERLI forecasts continuing, but milder, earnings downgrades with intraregional divergence, May 3
详情请参阅 5 月 24 日的脉搏检查:ERLI 预测盈利下调仍将持续,但幅度较小,区域内存在分歧,5 月 3 日
For methodology, please see Global Strategy Paper: The bear facts: Constructing an Asia bear market risk indicator, Mar 20, 2019
有关方法,请参阅《全球战略文件》:熊市事实:构建亚洲熊市风险指标,2019年3月20日
Summary of CY1Q24 earnings results: Net profit growth (yoy and sequential) and CY1Q24 actual as % of full-year estimates
24 财年第一季度财报摘要:净利润增长(同比和环比)和 24 财年第一季度实际业绩占全年预期的百分比
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源彭博社、FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
% of companies with earnings surprises in CY1Q24, ranked by % of beats
24 财年第一季度有盈利惊喜的公司百分比,按业绩超预期百分比排列
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博社、摩根士丹利资本国际公司、高盛全球投资研究部
GS Strategy View, Returns, Valuations, Growth, Earnings Revisions and Foreign Flows
GS 战略观点、回报、估值、增长、盈利修正和外资流入
Source: MSCI, FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:MSCI、FactSet、I/B/E/S、高盛全球投资研究来源:MSCI、FactSet、I/B/E/S、高盛全球投资研究部
Prices, returns and valuations in this report are updated as of Friday 4:00pm HKT; other data as of Thursday's close.
本报告中的价格、回报和估值更新至香港时间周五下午 4:00;其他数据更新至周四收盘。
Wtd and ytd returns of APJ/AEJ sectors, slices, thematics and styles, as of Friday, 4:00pm HKT
截至香港时间周五下午 4:00,亚太/东亚和日本板块、分类、主题和风格的周回报率和年回报率
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、高盛全球投资研究部
For basket details and more analysis, please visit GS Marquee and see our latest update of Asia Strategy Baskets.
欲了解篮子详情和更多分析,请访问 GS Marquee 并查看我们最新更新的亚洲战略篮子。
Backtesting performance based on baskets of stocks (quarterly balanced & equal-weighted) selected from the top/bottom-quartile of the MXAPJ constituents ranked by the respective factor metrics
根据从 MXAPJ 成分股的上/下四分位数中挑选的一篮子股票(季度均衡加权和等权加权),按照各自的因子指标进行回溯测试的表现
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、彭博、高盛全球投资研究部
See Asia-Pacific Strategy - Growth vs. Value debate: Prefer Growth with overlays, March 21, 2016 for details on methodology.
参见《亚太战略--增长与价值之争》:有关方法的详情,请参阅《亚太战略--增长与价值之争:偏好增长与叠加》,2016 年 3 月 21 日。
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: Bloomberg, Respective Local Stock Exchanges
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、各地方证券交易所
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Respective Local Stock Exchanges
资料来源来源:彭博、FactSet、MSCI、各地方证券交易所
Source: Bloomberg, AMFI, TEJ, FactSet, MSCI
资料来源来源:彭博、AMFI、TEJ、FactSet、MSCI
Source: HKEX, Wind 资料来源资料来源:香港交易所,Wind
Source: EPFR 资料来源资料来源:EPFR
Bp over/underweight vs. benchmark (based on EPFR)
与基准相比高/低权重基点(基于 EPFR)
Source: EPFR, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:EPFR、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博、FactSet、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:MSCI、FactSet、Wind、高盛全球投资研究公司
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Factiva, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、Factiva、高盛全球投资研究部
For details, please visit our GS proprietary index pages (GSSRCNRG / GSSRUSCN / GSSRCSRI / GSSRCSRB)
详情请访问我们的 GS 专有索引页面(GSSRCNRG / GSSRUSCN / GSSRCSRI / GSSRCSRB)。
(mom annualized)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Bloomberg, Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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投资者在做出投资决策时,应将本报告视为唯一的考虑因素。有关 Reg AC 认证和其他重要披露信息,请参阅披露附录,或访问 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。
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