STOCK MARKET  股票市场

WIZARD  巫师

HOW TO ACHIEVE  如何实现

SUPERPERFORMANCE  超级表现
IN STOCKS IN any market
在任何市场中的股票

TRADE LIKE A STOCK MARKET WIZARD
像股票市场巫师一样交易

TRADE LIKE A STOCK MARKET WIZARD
像股票市场巫师一样交易

MARK MINERVINI  马克·米内尔维尼

TERMS OF USE  使用条款

CONTENTS  目录

FOREWORD  前言

TRADE LIKE A STOCK MARKET WIZARD
像股票市场巫师一样交易

AN INTRODUCTION  引言

WORTH READING  值得阅读

Champions aren’t made in the gyms. Champions are made from something deep inside them—a desire, a dream, a vision. $$\text{-Muhammad Ali, three-time world}$$$$\text{-Muhammad Ali, three-time world }$$"-Muhammad Ali, three-time world "\text {-Muhammad Ali, three-time world } heavyweight boxing champion
冠军不是在健身房里造就的。冠军是从他们内心深处产生的——一种渴望，一个梦想，一个愿景。重量级拳击冠军

Follow Your Dreams and Believe in Yourself
跟随你的梦想，相信自己

Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they’ve been given than to explore the power they have to change it.
不可能只是一个被小人物抛出的巨大词汇，他们发现生活在他们所拥有的世界中比探索改变它的力量更容易。

And the Trade Shall Set You Free
交易将使你自由

Achieving the Best of Both Worlds
实现双赢的最佳方式

Invest in Yourself First
首先投资于自己

When Opportunity Meets Prepardness
当机会遇到准备时

Seize Permanent Knowledge
抓住永久知识

Put Passion at the Wheel
将激情放在方向盘上

The Best Time to Begin
最好的开始时机

A Time to Share
分享的时刻

WHAT YOU NEED  你需要知道的

TO KNOW FIRST  首先

No Luck Required  不需要运气

You Can Start Small
你可以从小开始

No! It's Not Different This Time
不！这次并没有不同

Your Greatest Challenge Is Not the Market
你最大的挑战不是市场

The world is full of people looking for a secret formula for success. They do not want to think on their own; they just want a recipe to follow. They are attracted to the idea of strategy for that very reason.
世界上充满了寻找成功秘密公式的人。他们不想自己思考；他们只想要一个可以遵循的食谱。他们正是因为这个原因而被策略的想法所吸引。

No One Is Going to Do It for You
没有人会为你做这件事

your money, you're just throwing darts. At some point, you will surely be taken to the cleaners.
投资你的钱，你只是在乱扔飞镖。到某个时候，你肯定会被人宰。

Do You Want to Be Right or Make Money?
你想要正确还是想赚钱？

Practice Does Not Make Perfect
练习并不等于完美

Why I Don't Like Paper Trading
我为什么不喜欢纸上交易

Trading Is a Business
交易是一项业务

Conventional Wisdom Produces Conventional Results
传统智慧产生传统结果

A “sound” banker, alas! is not one who foresees danger, and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can readily blame him.
可悲的是，一个“健全”的银行家并不是一个能够预见危险并避免它的人，而是一个在他破产时，和他的同伴们以一种传统和正统的方式一起破产，以至于没有人能轻易地指责他。

The Unavoidable Cost of Success
成功的不可避免代价

To Define Is to Sacrifice
定义就是牺牲

Trader or Investor?  交易者还是投资者？

• Should I buy?  我应该买入吗？
• Should I sell?  我应该卖出吗？
• Should I hold?  我应该持有吗？

Regret  后悔

• I should have bought.
  我应该买入。
• I should have sold.
  我应该卖出。
• I should have held.
  我应该持有。

Expect Some Rotten Days
期待一些糟糕的日子

Records Are Made to Be Broken
记录是用来打破的

SPECIFIC ENTRY POINT ${}^{\circledR }$${}^{\circledR }$^(®){ }^{\circledR}
特定入场点 ${}^{\circledR }$${}^{\circledR }$^(®){ }^{\circledR}

ANALYSIS: THE SEPA ${}^{\oplus }$${}^{\oplus }$^(o+){ }^{\oplus}
分析：SEPA ${}^{\oplus }$${}^{\oplus }$^(o+){ }^{\oplus}

STRATEGY  策略

The Beginning of a Turning Point
转折点的开始

1. There is a right time and a wrong time to buy stocks.
   买入股票有正确的时机和错误的时机。
2. Stocks with superperformance potential are identifiable before they increase dramatically in price.
   在价格大幅上涨之前，可以识别出具有超额表现潜力的股票。
3. By correctly investing in these stocks, it is possible to build a small amount of capital into a fortune in a relatively short period.
   通过正确投资这些股票，可以在相对较短的时间内将少量资本积累成财富。

The Melting Pot  大熔炉

At Last Technology  最后技术

Putting the Findings to Work
将发现付诸实践

The Leadership Profile  领导力档案

SEPA: A Strategy of Precision
SEPA：一种精确的策略

The Five Key Elements of SEPA
SEPA 的五个关键要素

1. Trend. Virtually every superperformance phase in big, winning stocks occurred while the stock price was in a definite price
   趋势。几乎所有大赢家股票的超表现阶段都发生在股票价格处于明确的价格区间内。
   uptrend. In almost every case, the trend was identifiable early in the superperformance advance.
   上升趋势。在几乎所有情况下，趋势在超表现的推进早期就可以识别出来。
2. Fundamentals. Most superperformance phases are driven by an improvement in earnings, revenue, and margins. This typically materializes before the start of the superperformance phase. In most cases, earnings and sales are on the table and measurable early on. During a stock’s superperformance phase, a material improvement almost always occurs in the fundamental picture with regard to sales, margins, and, ultimately, earnings.
   基本面。大多数超表现阶段是由盈利、收入和利润率的改善驱动的。这通常在超表现阶段开始之前就会显现出来。在大多数情况下，盈利和销售在早期都是可以量化和衡量的。在股票的超表现阶段，基本面情况几乎总是会在销售、利润率和最终的盈利方面发生实质性的改善。
3. Catalyst. Every stock that makes a huge gain has a catalyst behind it. The catalyst may not always be apparent upon a casual glance, but a little detective work on the company’s story could tip you off to a stock with superperformance potential. A new hot-selling product that accounts for a meaningful portion of a company’s sales may provide the spark to ignite a superperformance phase in that company’s stock price. Approval by the FDA, a newly awarded contract, or even a new CEO can bring life to a previously dormant stock. In dealing with small, lesser-known names, it often takes some event to attract attention to a stock. I like to see something that gets investors excited. Examples would include Apple (AAPL) reaching cult status with its Mac and “I” products, Research in Motion (RIMM) with its BlackBerry (so habitforming for Internet and e-mail junkies that it’s been nicknamed CrackBerry), and Google (GOOG), which became so synonymous with Internet search engines that it made it into the dictionary as a verb. Each situation may be somewhat different whether the stock is a classic growth company, a turnaround situation, a cyclical stock, or a biotech trading on the promise of a new drug. Whatever the reason, behind all superperformance there is always a catalyst driving institutional interest.
   催化剂。每只大幅上涨的股票背后都有一个催化剂。这个催化剂可能在初看时并不明显，但对公司的故事进行一些侦查工作可能会让你发现一只具有超额表现潜力的股票。一个新热销的产品，如果占据了公司销售的相当一部分，可能会为该公司股票价格的超额表现阶段提供火花。FDA 的批准、新获得的合同，甚至是新任 CEO 都能为之前沉寂的股票带来生机。在处理小型、不太知名的公司时，通常需要一些事件来吸引人们对股票的关注。我喜欢看到一些能让投资者兴奋的事情。例子包括苹果（AAPL）凭借其 Mac 和“I”产品达到了崇拜的地位，研究在动（RIMM）凭借其黑莓手机（对互联网和电子邮件爱好者来说如此上瘾，以至于被称为 CrackBerry），以及谷歌（GOOG），它与互联网搜索引擎的关系如此密切，以至于成为了字典中的一个动词。 每种情况可能有所不同，无论股票是经典的成长型公司、转型情况、周期性股票，还是基于新药承诺的生物技术股票。无论原因是什么，所有超额表现背后总有一个催化剂推动机构投资者的兴趣。
4. Entry points. Most superperformance stocks give you at least one opportunity and sometimes multiple opportunities to catch a meteoric rise at a low-risk entry point. Timing the entry point is
   进入点。大多数超额表现的股票至少会给你一次机会，有时会有多次机会，让你在低风险的进入点抓住一轮飞涨。时机的把握是
   critical. Time your entry incorrectly and you will be stopped out unnecessarily or lose big if the stock turns around and you fail to sell. Time the entry correctly during a bull market and you could be at a profit right away and on your way to a big gain.
   关键。若你的入场时机不正确，你将不必要地被止损，或者如果股票反转而你未能卖出，将会损失惨重。在牛市中正确地把握入场时机，你可能会立即获利，并朝着大幅盈利的方向前进。
5. Exit points. Not all stocks that display superperformance characteristics will result in gains. Many will not work out even if you place your buys at the correct point. This is why you must establish stop-loss points to force you out of losing positions to protect your account. Conversely, at some point your stock must be sold to realize a profit. The end of what once was a superperformance phase needs to be identified to keep what you’ve made.
   退出点。并非所有显示出超额表现特征的股票都会带来收益。即使你在正确的时机买入，许多股票也可能不会成功。这就是为什么你必须设定止损点，以迫使自己退出亏损的头寸，以保护你的账户。相反，在某个时刻，你的股票必须被卖出以实现利润。需要识别曾经的超额表现阶段的结束，以保住你所获得的收益。

1. Stocks must first meet my Trend Template (see Chapter 5) to be considered a potential SEPA candidate.
   股票必须首先符合我的趋势模板（见第 5 章），才能被视为潜在的 SEPA 候选者。
2. Stocks that meet the Trend Template are then screened through a series of filters that are based on earnings, sales and margin growth, relative strength, and price volatility. Approximately 95 percent of all stocks that qualify under the Trend Template fail to pass through this screen.
   符合趋势模板的股票会通过一系列基于收益、销售和利润增长、相对强度和价格波动的筛选器进行筛选。大约 95%的符合趋势模板的股票未能通过这一筛选。
3. The remaining stocks are scrutinized for similarities to my Leadership Profile to determine whether they are in line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historical models of past superperformers. This stage removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a much narrower list of investment ideas for an even closer review and evaluation.
   剩下的股票会被仔细审查，以确定它们是否与我的领导力特征相似，以判断它们是否符合历史超级表现者所表现出的特定基本面和技术因素。这一阶段去除了大部分剩余公司，留下了更窄的投资想法列表，以便进行更仔细的审查和评估。
4. The final stage is a manual review. A narrowed list of candidates is examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process that takes into consideration the following characteristics:
   最后阶段是手动审核。缩小后的候选人名单将逐个检查，并根据“相对优先级”排名过程进行评分，该过程考虑以下特征：

• Reported earnings and sales
  报告的收益和销售额
• Earnings and sales surprise history
  盈利和销售惊喜历史
• Earnings per share (EPS) growth and acceleration
  每股收益（EPS）增长和加速
• Revenue growth and acceleration
  收入增长和加速
• Company-issued guidance  公司发布的指导意见
• Revisions of analysts’ earnings estimates
  分析师盈利预测的修订
• Profit margins  利润率
• Industry and market position
  行业和市场地位
• Potential catalysts (new products and services or industryor company-specific developments)
  潜在催化剂（新产品和服务或行业或公司特定的发展）
• Performance compared with other stocks in same sector
  与同一行业其他股票的表现比较
• Price and trading volume analysis
  价格和交易量分析
• Liquidity risk  流动性风险

1. Future earnings and sales surprises and positive estimate revisions
   未来的收益和销售惊喜以及积极的估计修订
2. Institutional volume support (significant buying demand)
   机构交易量支持（显著的购买需求）
3. Rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance (lack of selling versus buying)
   基于供需失衡（缺乏卖出与买入）导致的快速价格上涨

Probability Convergence  概率收敛

Superperformance Traits  超表现特征

Superperformers Are Youthful
超表现者是年轻的

Size Matters  尺寸很重要

Stock Screening  股票筛选

Make a Commitment to an Approach
对一种方法做出承诺

VALUE COMES AT A PRICE
价值是有代价的

The P/ERatio: Overused and Misunderstood
市盈率：被过度使用和误解

Вотtom Fishers' Bliss  博特姆·费舍尔的幸福

Some analysts will recommend that you buy a stock that has had a severe decline. The justification may be that the $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E} is at or near the low end of its historical range. In many instances, however, such price adjustments antici-
一些分析师会建议你购买一只经历了严重下跌的股票。理由可能是该 $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E} 处于或接近其历史范围的低端。然而，在许多情况下，这种价格调整预示着-

The Cheap Trap  便宜陷阱

Don't Pass on High P/E Stocks
不要忽视高市盈率股票

High Growth Baffles the Analysts
高增长让分析师感到困惑

You might recall when Mark [Minervini] was here last in midOctober [1998] he recommended Yahoo!, which is up 100 percent since then. . . .
你可能还记得马克·米纳维尼在 1998 年 10 月中旬来这里时推荐了雅虎，自那时以来股价上涨了 100%。。。

In June 1997, I bought shares of Yahoo! when the stock was trading at 938 times earnings. Talk about a high P/E! Every institutional investor I mentioned the stock to said, “No way-Ya-WHO?” The company was virtually unknown at the time, but Yahoo! was leading a new technological revolution: the Internet. The potential for what was then a new industry was widely misunderstood at the time. Yahoo! shares advanced an amazing 7,800 percent in just 29 months, and the P/E expanded to more than 1,700 times earnings. Even if you got only a piece of that advance, you could have made a boatload.
在 1997 年 6 月，我以 938 倍的市盈率购买了雅虎的股票。谈谈这个高市盈率吧！我提到这只股票时，每个机构投资者都说：“不可能-雅谁？”当时这家公司几乎无人知晓，但雅虎正在引领一场新的技术革命：互联网。那时对这个新兴行业的潜力普遍被误解。雅虎的股票在短短 29 个月内上涨了惊人的 7800%，市盈率扩展到超过 1700 倍的收益。即使你只获得了这次上涨的一小部分，你也可以赚得盆满钵满。

What's High? What's Low?
什么是高？什么是低？

Everybody knows the old adage “buy low and sell high.” It makes senselike going to a store to find something on sale. However, buying low and selling high has little to do with the current stock price. How high or low the price is relative to where it was previously is not the determining factor in whether a stock will go higher still. A stock trading at $\mathrm{\$}60$$\mathrm{\$}60$$60\$ 60 can go to $\mathrm{\$}260$$\mathrm{\$}260$$260\$ 260, just as a stock trading at $\mathrm{\$}2$$\mathrm{\$}2$$2\$ 2 can go to $\mathrm{\$}1$$\mathrm{\$}1$$1\$ 1 or even to $\mathrm{\$}0$$\mathrm{\$}0$$0\$ 0. Was Yahoo! too high when it boasted a P/E ratio of 938 ? How about TASER (TASR/NASDAQ) in January 2004, just before it advanced 300 percent in three months; was it
每个人都知道“低买高卖”的老生常谈。这就像去商店寻找打折商品一样。然而，低买高卖与当前股票价格关系不大。价格相对于之前的高低并不是决定股票是否会继续上涨的因素。以 $\mathrm{\$}60$$\mathrm{\$}60$$60\$ 60 交易的股票可以涨到 $\mathrm{\$}260$$\mathrm{\$}260$$260\$ 260 ，就像以 $\mathrm{\$}2$$\mathrm{\$}2$$2\$ 2 交易的股票可以涨到 $\mathrm{\$}1$$\mathrm{\$}1$$1\$ 1 甚至 $\mathrm{\$}0$$\mathrm{\$}0$$0\$ 0 一样。雅虎在其市盈率达到 938 时是否太高了？那么在 2004 年 1 月，TASER（TASR/NASDAQ）在三个月内上涨 300%之前，它又如何呢？

Figure 4.3 TASER Intl. (TASR) 2004
图 4.3 TASER 国际（TASR）2004

There's a Reason a Ferrari Costs More Than a Hyundai
法拉利的价格高于现代汽车是有原因的。

If you want to buy a high-performance car such as a Ferrari, you’re going to pay a premium price. The same thing applies to high-performance stocks. The top 100 best-performing small- and mid-cap stocks of 1996 and 1997 had an average P/E of 40. Their P/Es grew further to an average of 87 and a median of 65 . Relatively speaking, their initially “expensive” P/Es turned out to be extremely cheap. These top stocks averaged a gain of 421 percent from buy point to peak. The P/E of the S&P 500 ranged from 18 to 20 during that period.
如果你想购买一辆高性能的汽车，比如法拉利，你将支付一个高昂的价格。高性能股票也是如此。1996 年和 1997 年表现最好的 100 只小型和中型股票的平均市盈率为 40。它们的市盈率进一步增长，平均达到 87，中位数为 65。相对而言，它们最初“昂贵”的市盈率最终被证明是极其便宜的。这些顶级股票从买入点到峰值的平均涨幅为 421%。在此期间，标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率在 18 到 20 之间波动。

Figure 4.5 CKE Restaurants (CKR) 1995
图 4.5 CKE 餐饮（CKR）1995 年
On October 13, 1995, CKR emerged into new high ground trading at a 55 x earnings.
1995 年 10 月 13 日，CKR 以 55 倍的收益率进入了新的高点。

Apollo Group (APOL)  阿波罗集团 (APOL)

Consider the example of Apollo Group. From mid-2001 through 2004, the $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E} ratio for Apollo was virtually unchanged despite a 200 percent rally in the price of the stock. Why did the P/E remain at the same level as it was several years earlier even though the stock price soared? Because earnings kept pace with the stock’s price appreciation. If a company can deliver strong earnings as fast as or even faster than its stock price appreciates, an initial high valuation may prove to be very cheap. Apollo Group went public in December 1994 with a market value of only $\mathrm{\$}112$$\mathrm{\$}112$$112\$ 112 million. Apollo met or beat Wall Street estimates for 45 consecutive quarters. As you can probably imagine, this led the company’s stock price to superperformance status.
以阿波罗集团为例。从 2001 年中期到 2004 年，阿波罗的 $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E} 比率几乎没有变化，尽管股票价格上涨了 200%。为什么市盈率在股票价格飙升的情况下仍然保持在几年前的水平？因为收益与股票价格的上涨保持同步。如果一家公司能够以与其股票价格上涨相同或更快的速度交付强劲的收益，那么最初的高估值可能会被证明是非常便宜的。阿波罗集团于 1994 年 12 月上市，市值仅为 $\mathrm{\$}112$$\mathrm{\$}112$$112\$ 112 百万。阿波罗连续 45 个季度满足或超越华尔街的预期。可以想象，这使得公司的股票价格达到了超表现的状态。
APOL Heekly  APOL 希克利

Crocs Mania  脚蹼狂热

As the plastic clogs originally meant for gardeners and boaters became a fashion rage, everybody started wearing Crocs, and the popularity spilled over into the stock. Crocs (CROX/NASDAQ) shares boasted a P/E of more than 60 times earnings, before the price blasted higher. But fads come and fads go, and perhaps the world is finding that when it comes to Crocs, the shoe no longer fits. The P/E ratio for Crocs contracted from April 2006 to October 2007 as earnings grew faster than the stock’s price appreciation. If you had bought Crocs when shares were trading at more than 60x earn-ings-the most expensive $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E} in its history-you could have reaped a return of 700 percent on your money in only 20 months. If you had waited for the stock to trade at a more reasonable valuation and bought when the stock traded near its historical low $\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$$\mathrm{P}/\mathrm{E}$P//E\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}, you would have lost 99 percent of your capital in less than a year. Regardless of one’s opinion, the market always has the last word.
随着最初为园丁和船员设计的塑料木屐成为时尚潮流，人人开始穿着 Crocs，Crocs 的受欢迎程度也蔓延到了股市。Crocs（CROX/NASDAQ）的股票在价格飙升之前，市盈率超过 60 倍。但潮流来来去去，也许世界发现，当谈到 Crocs 时，这双鞋不再合适。从 2006 年 4 月到 2007 年 10 月，Crocs 的市盈率收缩，因为收益增长速度超过了股票价格的升值。如果你在股票交易超过 60 倍收益时购买了 Crocs——这是其历史上最昂贵的时刻——你可能在短短 20 个月内获得了 700%的回报。如果你等到股票以更合理的估值交易，并在股票接近历史低点时购买，你将在不到一年的时间里损失 99%的资本。无论个人观点如何，市场总是有最后的发言权。

Value Doesn’t Move Stock Prices; People Do
价值并不影响股票价格；人们才会

Many people get confused: they think we are trading the actual companies themselves, that the pieces of paper we are trading, investing, owning, are some sort of redemptive right, a coupon that will give you certain cents off, or an ownership right that will allow you to have a chunk of the brick and mortar if not the cash in the treasury of the joint; untrue. These are, in the end, simply pieces of paper, to be bought, sold, or manipulated up and down by those with more capital than others . . . the fundamentals of the company play only a part in what moves the stock up or down.
许多人感到困惑：他们认为我们在交易实际的公司，认为我们交易、投资、拥有的那些纸张是一种赎回权，一种可以让你享受某种折扣的优惠券，或者是一种让你拥有砖瓦和水泥的一部分的所有权，甚至是公司国库中的现金；这都是不真实的。最终，这些只是纸张，可以被买卖，或者被那些拥有更多资本的人操纵上下……公司的基本面只在一定程度上影响股票的涨跌。

In Search of Value
寻找价值

No Magic Number  没有魔法数字

The 25 top-performing stocks from 1995 to 2005 had an average P/E ratio of $33x$$33x$33 x33 x, ranging from a low of $8.6x$$8.6x$8.6 x8.6 x to a high of $223x$$223x$223 x223 x. The three best performers in the group-American Eagle Outfitters, Penn National Gaming,
从 1995 年到 2005 年，表现最好的 25 只股票的平均市盈率为 $33x$$33x$33 x33 x ，范围从最低的 $8.6x$$8.6x$8.6 x8.6 x 到最高的 $223x$$223x$223 x223 x 。该组中表现最好的三只股票是美国鹰 Outfitters、Penn National Gaming，

Warning: The Superlow P/E
警告：超低市盈率

P/E Deception  市盈率的误导

The Broken Leader Syndrome
破碎的领导者综合症

Sun Microsystems is a good example of a broken leader play. The stock had an incredible price advance during the 1990s and then topped out in late 2000. Investors who were waiting for this powerhouse to correct, or “come in,” so that they could buy it may have been elated to see the stock off 75 percent from its high in 2001. Unfortunately, the party was over, and a year later Sun’s stock fell a further 80 percent. Eight years later, investors
太阳微系统是一个破裂领头羊的好例子。这只股票在 1990 年代经历了惊人的价格上涨，然后在 2000 年底达到顶峰。那些等待这只强劲股票调整或“回调”以便购买的投资者，可能会对 2001 年股票从高点下跌 75%感到欣喜。然而，派对已经结束，一年后太阳的股票又下跌了 80%。八年后，投资者

P/ERatio Is a Barometer of Sentiment
市盈率是情绪的晴雨表

The PEG Ratio  PEG 比率

Gauging P/E Expansion  衡量市盈率扩张

In the 1990s, as Home Depot stock became an institutional favorite, rampant enthusiasm ran the stock price up well ahead of its earnings growth. Home Depot’s P/E expanded from the mid-20s to 70x earnings in just two years after the stock bottomed from its 1990 bear market low. A period of sideways consolidation took place for the next four years while the
在 1990 年代，随着家得宝股票成为机构投资者的最爱，过度的热情使得股票价格远远超过了其盈利增长。家得宝的市盈率在股票从 1990 年熊市低点反弹后的短短两年内，从 20 多倍扩展到 70 倍。接下来的四年里，股票经历了一段横盘整理期。

What Does All This Mean?
这意味着什么？

TRADING WITH  交易与

THE TREND  趋势

Making Friends with the Trend
与趋势交朋友

Superperformance and Stage Analysis
超级表现与阶段分析

Stock Price Maturation: The Four Stages
股票价格成熟：四个阶段

1. Stage 1 -Neglect phase: consolidation
   第一阶段 - 忽视阶段：整合
2. Stage 2—Advancing phase: accumulation
   第二阶段 - 上升阶段：积累
3. Stage 3-Topping phase: distribution
   第三阶段-顶部阶段：分配
4. Stage 4—Declining phase: capitulation
   第四阶段-下降阶段：投降

Stage 1-The Neglect Phase: Consolidation
阶段 1-忽视阶段：整合

• During stage 1 , the stock price will move in a sideways fashion with a lack of any sustained price movement up or down.
  在第一阶段，股票价格将以横向方式波动，缺乏任何持续的价格上涨或下跌。
• The stock price will oscillate around its 200-day (or 40 -week) moving average. During that oscillation, it lacks any real trend, upward or downward. This dead in the water phase can last for months or even years.
  股票价格将在其 200 日（或 40 周）移动平均线附近波动。在这种波动期间，它没有任何真正的趋势，无论是向上还是向下。这种停滞不前的阶段可能持续数月甚至数年。
• Often, this basing stage takes place after the stock price has declined during stage 4 for several months or more.
  通常，这一筑底阶段发生在股票价格在第 4 阶段下降了几个月或更长时间之后。
  

  

• Volume will generally contract and be relatively light compared with the previous volume during the stage 4 decline.
  在第四阶段的下跌过程中，成交量通常会收缩，并且与之前的成交量相比相对较轻。

No Botтom Picking Required
不需要抄底

Transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2
从第一阶段过渡到第二阶段

In the following figure, note that the 200-day moving average for Amgen has turned up and is in a definite uptrend. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, and the stock is trading above both the 150-day and 200-day moving average during the markup phase. Note, too, the surging volume on the rallies, contrasted with lighter volume on pullbacks. For Amgen, by the time stage 2 was clearly under way, the
在下图中，请注意安进的 200 日移动平均线已经上升，并处于明显的上升趋势中。150 日移动平均线高于 200 日移动平均线，并且在标记阶段，股票的交易价格高于 150 日和 200 日移动平均线。还要注意，反弹时的成交量激增，而回调时的成交量较轻。对于安进来说，当第二阶段明显开始时，

Transition Criteria  转换标准

1. The stock price is above both the 150-day and the 200-day moving average.
   股票价格高于 150 日和 200 日移动平均线。
2. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day.
   150 日移动平均线高于 200 日移动平均线。
3. The 200-day moving average has turned up.
   200 日移动平均线已经上升。
4. A series of higher highs and higher lows has occurred.
   一系列更高的高点和更低的低点已经出现。
   

   

• The stock price is above its 200-day ( 40 -week) moving average.
  股票价格高于其 200 日（40 周）移动平均线。
• The 200-day moving average itself is in an uptrend.
  200 日移动平均线本身处于上升趋势。
  

  

• The 150-day (30-week) moving average is above the 200-day (40-week) moving average.
  150 日（30 周）移动平均线高于 200 日（40 周）移动平均线。
• The stock price is in a clear uptrend, defined by higher highs and higher lows in a staircase pattern.
  股票价格处于明显的上升趋势中，表现为阶梯式的更高高点和更高低点。
• Short-term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g., the 50-day moving average is above the 150-day moving average).
  短期移动平均线高于长期移动平均线（例如，50 日移动平均线高于 150 日移动平均线）。
• Volume spikes on big up days and big up weeks are contrasted by volume contractions during normal price pullbacks.
  在大涨的日子和大涨的周中，成交量激增，而在正常的价格回调期间，成交量则收缩。
• There are more up days and up weeks on above-average volume than down days and down weeks on above-average volume.
  在高于平均水平的成交量中，上涨的日子和上涨的周数多于下跌的日子和下跌的周数。

Stage 3-The Topping Phase: Distribution
第三阶段 - 顶部阶段：分配

• Volatility increases, with the stock moving back and forth in wider, looser swings. Although the overall price pattern may look similar to stage 2 , with the stock moving higher, the price movement is much more erratic.
  波动性增加，股票在更宽松的波动中来回移动。尽管整体价格模式可能看起来与第二阶段相似，股票在上涨，但价格波动要 erratic 得多。
• There is usually a major price break in the stock on an increase in volume. Often, it’s the largest one-day decline since the beginning of the stage 2 advance. On a weekly chart, the stock may put in the
  股票通常会在成交量增加时出现重大价格突破。通常，这是自第二阶段上涨开始以来最大的一天跌幅。在周线图上，股票可能会出现
  

  

• The stock price may undercut its 200-day moving average. Price volatility around the 200-day ( 40 -week) moving average line is common as many stocks in stage 3 bounce below and above the 200-day average several times while topping out.
  股票价格可能会低于其 200 日移动平均线。在 200 日（40 周）移动平均线附近的价格波动是常见的，因为许多处于第三阶段的股票在达到顶部时会多次在 200 日平均线以下和以上反弹。
• The 200-day moving average will lose upside momentum, flatten out, and then roll over into a downtrend.
  200 日移动平均线将失去上行动能，变平，然后转入下行趋势。

Stage 4-The Declining Phase: Capitulation
第四阶段 - 下降阶段：投降

Stage 4 Characteristics  第四阶段特征

• The vast majority of the price action is below the 200-day (40-week) moving average.
  大多数价格波动都在 200 日（40 周）移动平均线以下。
• The 200-day moving average, which was flat or turning downward in stage 3 , is now in a definite downtrend.
  200 日移动平均线在第三阶段时平坦或向下，现在处于明显的下行趋势中。
• The stock price is near or hitting 52 -week new lows
  股票价格接近或触及 52 周的新低。
• The stock price pattern is characterized as a series of lower lows and lower highs, stair-stepping downward.
  股票价格模式被描述为一系列更低的低点和更低的高点，呈阶梯式向下移动。
• Short-term moving averages are below long-term moving averages.
  短期移动平均线低于长期移动平均线。
• Volume spikes on big down days and big down weeks are contrasted by low-volume rallies.
  在大幅下跌的日子和周数中，成交量激增与低成交量的反弹形成对比。
  

  

• There are more down days and weeks on above-average volume than up days and up weeks on above-average volume
  在高于平均水平的成交量中，向下的交易日和交易周比向上的交易日和交易周要多。

The Price Maturation Cycle
价格成熟周期

Now that we have broken down the four stages individually, it’s important to understand that the study of the four stages of a stock’s life cycle is not meant for pinpoint timing purposes, which requires a more precise approach and tactics that I will discuss below. Rather, the four stages are most useful for gaining perspective on where a stock is in its life cycle pricewise and then to compare that with where the company is in its earnings cycle. A stock can go through the cycle many times. By studying the four stages, you will see clearly that you want to be involved in stage 2 . I’m not at all interested in getting in early when a stock is still in stage 1 , and I definitely don’t want to hang around for stage 3 , let alone stage 4 .
现在我们已经分别分析了四个阶段，重要的是要理解，研究股票生命周期的四个阶段并不是为了精确的时机把握，这需要更精确的方法和策略，我将在下面讨论。相反，这四个阶段最有助于了解一只股票在其生命周期中的价格位置，然后将其与公司在盈利周期中的位置进行比较。一只股票可以经历这个周期多次。通过研究这四个阶段，你会清楚地看到你想参与的是第二阶段。我对在股票仍处于第一阶段时提前介入一点兴趣都没有，我绝对不想在第三阶段逗留，更不用说第四阶段了。

Figure 5.6 Amgen (AMGN) 1989-1997
图 5.6 安进（AMGN）1989-1997
Using Amgen as an example of a stock cycling through the various stages, you can clearly see why you would want to be long during stage 2 and avoid the other stages.
以安进（Amgen）为例，您可以清楚地看到为什么在第二阶段时您会想要做多，而避免其他阶段。

Figure 5.7 F5 Networks 2007-2011
图 5.7 F5 Networks 2007-2011
F5 Networks transitioned quickly from stage 3 to stage 4 and declined more than 50 percent in only eight months.
F5 Networks 迅速从第三阶段过渡到第四阶段，仅在八个月内下降了超过 50％。

Figure 5.8 Weight Watchers (WTW) 2009-2012
图 5.8 Weight Watchers (WTW) 2009-2012
Weight Watchers topped in May 2011 but took a year to build a stage 3 top before transitioning to stage 4.
体重观察者在 2011 年 5 月达到顶峰，但花了一年时间建立一个阶段 3 的顶部，然后过渡到阶段 4。

Figure 5.9 Novell (NOVL) 1989-1998
图 5.9 Novell (NOVL) 1989-1998
Novell topped in 1993. With the exception of a bear trap rally in 1995, the stock price spent the next five years in a stage 4 decline, falling more than 80 percent.
诺维尔在 1993 年达到顶峰。除了 1995 年的一次熊市陷阱反弹外，股价在接下来的五年里处于第四阶段的下跌中，跌幅超过 80％。

How to Pinpoint Stage 2
如何确定第二阶段

Riding the Tide; Timing the Waves
驾驭潮流；把握波动

Where Are We on This Mountain? The Base Count
我们在这座山上处于何处？底部计数

Bases 1 and 2 generally come off a market correction, which is the best time for jumping on board a new trend. As the stock makes a series of bases along the stage 2 uptrend, base 3 is a little more obvious but usually still tradable. By the time a fourth or fifth base occurs (if it gets that far), the trend is becoming extremely obvious and is definitely in its late stages. By this point, abrupt base failures occur more frequently. Some stocks, how-
底部 1 和 2 通常是在市场修正后形成的，这是跳上新趋势的最佳时机。当股票在第二阶段的上升趋势中形成一系列底部时，底部 3 变得更加明显，但通常仍然可以交易。到达第四或第五个底部时（如果能到达那一步），趋势变得极其明显，绝对处于晚期阶段。此时，突然的底部失败发生得更加频繁。一些股票，如何-

Figure 5.11 Amgen (AMGN) 1987-1994
图 5.11 安进（AMGN）1987-1994
In 1992, Amgen formed a double top before completing stage 3 and transitioning into a sharp stage 4 decline.
1992 年，安进形成了一个双顶，随后完成了第三阶段并过渡到急剧的第四阶段下跌。

Figure 5.12 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 2006-2008
图 5.12 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 2006-2008
In 2008, Deckers Outdoor formed a stage 3 top marked by a relatively wide fifth base.
2008 年，Deckers Outdoor 形成了一个阶段 3 顶部，标志着一个相对宽的第五个底部。

Trust but Verify  信任但要验证

Heed a Trend Reversal
注意趋势反转

At some point your stock will reach its highest price and top out. This can occur with or without warning. Regardless of your fondness for or attachment to a particular security, it’s important that you learn to detect and, more important, respect a change in trend. Stocks very often top out while earnings still look good. Investors who wait for the earnings picture to dim before hitting the bid in the face of a stage 3 top or stage 4 decline often end up with a huge loss or at the very least give back much if not all of
在某个时刻，你的股票将达到最高价格并达到顶峰。这可能会在有或没有警告的情况下发生。无论你对某个特定证券的喜爱或依恋如何，重要的是你要学会识别并更重要的是尊重趋势的变化。股票往往在收益仍然看好的情况下达到顶峰。那些在面对第三阶段顶部或第四阶段下跌时，等待收益情况恶化才出手的投资者，往往会遭受巨大的损失，或者至少会失去大部分甚至全部的收益。

Financial Stocks Warn of Impending Trouble
金融股票警告即将到来的麻烦

The news media would have you believe that the troubles in financials in 2008 came out of nowhere. The truth, however, is that the stock prices of financial companies were falling in a stage 4 decline for many months, warning of trouble ahead. All you had to do to avert a major disaster was heed the stage 4 decline and sell. Even if you bought near the all-time high price,
新闻媒体会让你相信，2008 年金融危机的麻烦是突如其来的。然而，事实是，金融公司的股票价格在经历了长达数月的第四阶段下跌，预示着前方的麻烦。你所需要做的就是注意第四阶段的下跌并卖出，以避免重大灾难。即使你在历史最高价附近买入，

Figure 5.15 Citigroup © 2004-2009
图 5.15 花旗集团 © 2004-2009
Warning signs were abundant in Citigroup © with a stage 4 decline under way in late 2007 and early 2008, long before the worst of the financial crisis hit.
在 2007 年末和 2008 年初，花旗集团 © 出现了大量警告信号，正处于第四阶段的下跌之中，远在金融危机最严重之前。

Trust Your Eyes, Not Your Ears
相信你的眼睛，而不是你的耳朵

When a stock shows signs of topping or, even worse, enters a stage 4 decline, you should trust what you see, not what you hear. Tune out the analyst and discount company hype. The chart of Vicor shows that by the time the flat earnings were reported (which was a dramatic deceleration from the previ-
当一只股票显示出顶部迹象或更糟的是，进入第四阶段下跌时，你应该相信你所看到的，而不是你所听到的。忽略分析师的意见，打折公司宣传。Vicor 的图表显示，在报告平坦的收益（这与之前的收益大幅减速）之前，情况已经发生了变化。

As you look at Crocs (next), note how the negative quarter ( -71 percent) was reported long after the stock topped and not until the price was already down 73 percent from its high. This demonstrates clearly why you cannot wait for a fundamental change when the price action of a stock turns volatile or hostile into stage 3 or, even worse, stage 4 . To be successful, you must respect the trend and the wisdom of the market. Crocs’ weekly chart shows the mass exit taking place as big institutions unwind positions as the stock quickly transitions from stage 2 to stage 4 .
当你查看 Crocs（下一个）时，请注意负季度（-71%）是在股票见顶后很久才被报告的，而此时价格已经从高点下跌了 73%。这清楚地表明了为什么当股票的价格走势变得不稳定或敌对，进入第 3 阶段，甚至更糟的第 4 阶段时，你不能等待基本面的变化。要想成功，你必须尊重趋势和市场的智慧。Crocs 的周线图显示了大型机构在股票迅速从第 2 阶段过渡到第 4 阶段时，进行大规模退出的情况。

Figure 5.18 Crocs (CROX) 2006-2009
图 5.18 Crocs（CROX）2006-2009
Crocs weekly chart shows the mass exit that took place as big institutions unwound positions and the stock quickly transitions from stage 2 to stage 4.
Crocs 的周线图显示了大型机构平仓时发生的大规模撤退，股票迅速从第二阶段过渡到第四阶段。

Brokerage House Opinions
券商意见

We put CMG on our short alert list eight days before Citigroup raised its rating to buy. Three months later the stock was down 40 percent.
我们在花旗集团将 CMG 的评级提升为买入之前的八天就将其列入了我们的卖空警报名单。三个月后，该股票下跌了 40%。

A Material Change in Behavior Is a Major Warning
行为的重大变化是一个主要警告

Institutional investors can become wary of what had been a strong performer; they can suddenly send a stock plummeting as they get out. When that happens, take heed. Before it becomes apparent that the fundamentals have changed, a major break in the stock price often will occur on overwhelming volume. If your stock experiences its largest daily and/or weekly price decline since the beginning of the stage 2 advance, this is a sell signal in most cases even if it comes on the heels of a seemingly great earnings report. Don’t listen to the company or the media; listen to the stock. I have seen companies report earnings that were only a few cents better than expected on in-line revenues and skyrocket, and I have also seen companies report
机构投资者可能会对曾经表现强劲的股票产生警惕；当他们退出时，股票可能会突然暴跌。当这种情况发生时，请注意。在基本面变化变得明显之前，股票价格通常会在巨大的成交量下发生重大突破。如果你的股票经历了自第二阶段上涨开始以来最大的日常和/或每周价格下跌，这在大多数情况下是一个卖出信号，即使它是在看似良好的财报发布之后出现的。不要听公司的话或媒体的报道；要听股票的声音。我见过一些公司报告的收益仅比预期高出几美分，营收符合预期却暴涨，也见过一些公司报告的情况。

Many times before a fundamental problem is evident, there will be a hint in the form of a material change in price behavior. That change should always be respected even if you don’t see any reason for the sud-
在基本面问题明显之前，价格行为的重大变化往往会发出一些暗示。即使你看不到任何突发原因，这种变化也应该始终受到重视。

Figure 5.22 Crocs (CROX) 2006-2009
图 5.22 Crocs (CROX) 2006-2009
The largest daily decline for Crocs also came on the largest weekly decline on huge volume.
Crocs 的最大日跌幅也发生在最大周跌幅上，且成交量巨大。

Figure 5.23 Opentable (OPEN) 2011
图 5.23 Opentable (OPEN) 2011
Opentable breaks down on huge volume after on an earnings report.
Opentable 在财报发布后大幅下跌，成交量巨大。

Figure 5.24 Opentable (OPEN) 2011
图 5.24 Opentable (OPEN) 2011
The largest weekly price decline on the largest swell in volume indicated institutions were dumping the shares.
最大的周价格下跌伴随着最大的成交量，表明机构正在抛售股票。
den change in sentiment. Earnings may still look good. The story may still be intact. However, in most cases, you’ll be far better off getting out-shooting first and asking questions later-than waiting to learn the reason why. When a stock that had been in a strong stage 2 suddenly goes into a stage 3 topping pattern or transitions quickly into stage 4 , don’t sit there and assume that everything is fine. There is a reason for the adverse price move; you just don’t know it yet. Whatever you do, don’t think that a big break in the stock is now a buying opportunity. Many investors get caught in this trap: A stock they own suddenly declines sharply. Believing that the marketplace must be wrong and that the stock is still a good performer, they decide it’s time to buy more. They don’t realize that the stock price is down because the big players know (or at least suspect) something is wrong and are getting out. When you see that happen in the price action, regardless of what the fundamentals are saying, it’s time to exit.
情绪的变化。盈利可能仍然看起来不错。故事可能仍然完整。然而，在大多数情况下，你会发现提前出手、事后再问问题要比等待了解原因要好得多。当一只处于强劲的第二阶段的股票突然进入第三阶段的顶部形态或迅速过渡到第四阶段时，不要坐在那里假设一切都很好。价格下跌是有原因的；你只是不知道而已。无论你做什么，不要认为股票的大幅下跌现在是一个买入机会。许多投资者会陷入这个陷阱：他们拥有的股票突然大幅下跌。相信市场一定是错的，股票仍然表现良好，他们决定是时候再买入更多。他们没有意识到，股票价格下跌是因为大玩家知道（或至少怀疑）有什么问题并正在退出。当你在价格走势中看到这种情况时，无论基本面说什么，都是时候退出了。

Figure 5.25 Illumina Inc. (ILMN) 2011
图 5.25 Illumina Inc. (ILMN) 2011
Illumina sold off big on what appeared to be a decent earnings report. The stock declined 50 percent leading up to its next earnings report, which was negative in terms of both earnings and sales.
Illumina 在看似不错的财报发布后大幅下跌。该股票在下一个财报发布前下跌了 50%，而这次财报在盈利和销售方面都是负面的。

Let the Wind Fill Your Sails
让风填满你的帆。

CATEGORIES, INDUSTRY GROUPS, AND CATALYSTS
类别、行业组和催化剂

1. Market leaders  市场领导者
2. Top competitors  顶级竞争者
3. Institutional favorites  机构最爱
4. Turnaround situations  逆转情况
5. Cyclical stocks  周期性股票
6. Past leaders and laggards
   过去的领袖和落后者

The Market Leader  市场领袖

When Expensive Is Actually Cheap
当昂贵实际上是便宜的时候

The Category Killer  类别杀手

The Cookie Cutter Concept
曲奇切割概念

• The brand is losing strength, and people aren’t shopping at the company’s stores.
  该品牌正在失去实力，人们不再在公司的商店购物。
• The economy is worsening, and people aren’t interested in shopping anywhere.
  经济正在恶化，人们对任何地方的购物都不感兴趣。
• The company has too many items at discount prices, and dollar volume per customer is less than usual.
  该公司有太多折扣商品，每位顾客的销售额低于正常水平。

The Top Competitor: Keep Your Eye on the Competition
顶级竞争者：关注竞争对手

Coming off the market bottom in 2009, Blockbuster was plagued with declining sales as the stock traded as low as $\mathrm{\$}0.13$$\mathrm{\$}0.13$$0.13\$ 0.13. This was off a high of $18.00! Meanwhile, on March 18, 2009, just seven days after the Nasdaq Composite traded at its bear market low and only 10 days after the Dow traded at its bear market low of 6,469, Netflix hit an all-time high. Just 17 trading days later Netflix’s stock price was up an additional 20 percent. Sales had been brisk and accelerating over the previous three quarters from 11 percent to 16 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Earnings were even more impressive, up 36 percent, 38 percent, and 58 percent, respectively. In October 2009, I was buying Netflix shares. Netflix’s earnings, sales, margins, return on equity, and debt levels all were superior to those metrics at Blockbuster. Netflix was trading at 32x earnings while Blockbuster traded at just 2 x earnings. Which stock was really the “cheap” stock? From the
在 2009 年市场底部反弹后，Blockbuster 遭遇了销售下滑，股票价格低至 $\mathrm{\$}0.13$$\mathrm{\$}0.13$$0.13\$ 0.13 。而其最高曾达到 18.00 美元！与此同时，在 2009 年 3 月 18 日，仅在纳斯达克综合指数触及其熊市低点后的七天，以及道琼斯指数在 6469 的熊市低点后的十天，Netflix 达到了历史新高。仅仅 17 个交易日后，Netflix 的股价又上涨了 20%。在之前的三个季度中，销售额从 11%加速增长到 16%和 19%。盈利更为令人印象深刻，分别增长了 36%、38%和 58%。在 2009 年 10 月，我开始购买 Netflix 的股票。Netflix 的盈利、销售、利润率、股本回报率和债务水平都优于 Blockbuster 的这些指标。Netflix 的市盈率为 32 倍，而 Blockbuster 仅为 2 倍。哪只股票才是真正的“便宜”股票？从

The Institutional Favorite
机构最爱

The Turnaround Situation
逆转局面

Remember, stocks don’t necessarily stay in one category forever. This is why it’s important to understand the dynamics that are taking place with regard to a company’s products and services and the potential for sales growth. Apple Computer was a turnaround situation that morphed into a growth stock and since then has reached institutional favorite status. From 2001 to 2003, revenue and margins were under severe pressure, which in turn led to lackluster earnings and a falling stock; the price of Apple’s shares was down more than 80 percent from its high. Things were so bleak that when Michael Dell, founder of rival computer maker Dell Inc., was asked
请记住，股票不一定会永远停留在一个类别中。这就是为什么了解与公司产品和服务相关的动态以及销售增长潜力是重要的。苹果电脑曾经是一个转型的案例，后来变成了成长型股票，从那时起它达到了机构青睐的地位。从 2001 年到 2003 年，收入和利润率承受着严重压力，这反过来导致了乏善可陈的收益和下跌的股票；苹果股票的价格比其高点下跌了超过 80%。情况如此严峻，以至于当戴尔公司创始人迈克尔·戴尔被问及时

Cyclical Stocks  周期性股票