Brian Nowak leads the US Internet Research effort at Morgan Stanley, covering a total of 45 companies with his team. Brian’s 15-plus years of experience in sell-side equity research provides a differentiated view across online advertising, e-commerce, the shared economy, video games, online travel, and more. He has been a top-ranked analyst multiple times. Notable thematic work he has led includes: AI and its transformative impact on tech and tech diffusion, consumer behavior changes in search and social media, forward growth and profitability of the shared economy, the Metaverse, Amazon disruption, and more. Prior to Morgan Stanley, Brian worked at Susquehanna Financial Group and Nomura Securities, also covering the US Internet space. Before that, he worked at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., where he also was part of a top-ranked team. Brian began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. He graduated from the University of Michigan with a Bachelor of Business and Masters of Accounting and has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
... More- BluePaperGenerative AI is driving transformational change in robotics, rapidly accelerating capital formation and adoption rate. Labor tightness and demographics further underpin the business case. TAM? A $30 trillion global labor market. Our "Humanoid 66" stock list offers exposure to the theme.
- FoundationFor every transcript mentioning "AI" since ChatGPT was launched, the market cap of global AI Enabler stocks has increased by over $400m. Trillions of dollars hinge on continued consumer and enterprise adoption. As market volatility rises, our new adoption tracker provides a reassuring signal.
- FoundationOur 6th annual AlphaWise survey of 575 Morgan Stanley summer interns reveals rich insights across industries and themes. The survey offers a timely look into the next generation of business leaders whose ideas are bound to challenge the status quo and all we thought we knew about our markets.
- InsightWe update our European data centre (DC) forecasts. We now expect the industry to grow 6x to 38GW, by 2035 (vs 5x before). Given energy and planning constraints in large DC markets (Europe: FLAP-D, US: N Virginia), this report examines the growth of new secondary DC markets in Europe, the US and Asia
- InsightThe eCommerce sector remains an underappreciated beneficiary from the rise of AI — with the digital shift driving sales/margin tailwinds, including a +2pp CAGR uplift (US$650 billion incremental 2028E GMV) in our AI Bull Case. How to play it? Our multi-factor scorecard identifies who's best positioned.
- IdeaMag 7 valuations are 30% off the T5Y peak, but still 50% above the T5Y trough, and in-line with T5Y avg. But when adjusted for future EPS growth, the Mag 7 trades at a 40% discount to the T5Y PEG, a critical distinction in a soft landing scenario & supportive of mega-caps outperforming small-caps.
- UpdateWBTN's first quarter post-IPO showed growth across all 3 business lines and particular strength from Japan. We were also encouraged by the strong operating leverage against 11% revenue growth in 2Q. We detail why we are monitoring RoW user growth, the ramp in ads, and margin expansion from here.
- UpdateF1Q showed continued momentum in TTWO's Zynga mobile business, which it expects to grow at a HSD rate this year. The company also reiterated its full-year guidance and expectation of topline growth during and after the GTA VI launch (the key catalyst), which remains set for fall CY25. Remain OW.
- UpdateU's new CEO started his tenure with a major cut to '24 guidance. We ultimately view this as a healthy expectations reset, which leaves the deck clear for U to execute. From here, we will be watching for evidence that U can stabilize its ad business and grow Create sustainably going forward.
- Update2Q results highlight TTD's ability to execute and consistently outperform. Both CTV/retail media were areas of strength and early Kokai adopters saw performance gains. Recent partnerships with NFLX and FOX continue to demonstrate TTD's leadership in the ecosystem. Remain OW, $110 PT.
- UpdateEXPE is improving execution, with Vrbo appearing to have bottomed, and while the 3Q outlook / FY24 guide reduction was better than feared, EXPE is not immune to decelerating macro travel trends. Lower '25 Revenue/EBITDA -3%/-5%, PT unchanged at $150 (slightly higher mult), remain EW.
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- UpdateWe are encouraged by green shoots as FIGS' shift to top of funnel marketing and product innovation have boosted frequency. FY24 revenue guidance was raised & still looks conservative with potential Olympic benefit, although mix shift away from core scrubs is hurting gross margin. Stay EW; $5.50 PT.
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