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TMTB: NVDA PANW First Take

TMT Breakout
Nov 20, 2024
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NVDA flat: Looks fine…Q3 Solid but DC a little light of bogeys while Q4 Revs slightly light of $38B bogey coming in at $37.5B +/- 2%

Q4 rev guide $37.5B lighter than buyside bogey at $38B but better than street at $37B

Overall looks fine and slightly ho-hum…Everyone will look forward as BW ramps. Don’t think anyone is changing their thesis on a $500M miss to buyside bogeys here, especially as guide will be seen as conservative during product transition.

NVDA RESULTS: Q3
- Revenue $35.08B, +94% y/y, EST $33.25B better than bogey of $34.5B
- Data center revenue $30.8B vs. $14.51B y/y, EST $29.14B a little light of bogey at $31B
- Gaming revenue $3.3B, +15% y/y, EST $3.06B
- Professional Visualization revenue $486M, +17% y/y, EST $477.7M
- Automotive revenue $449M, +72% y/y, EST $364.5M
- ADJ gross margin 75% vs. 75% y/y, EST 75%
- ADJ operating expenses $3.05B, +50% y/y, EST $2.99B
- ADJ operating income $23.28B vs. $11.56B y/y, EST $21.9B
- ADJ EPS $0.81, EST $0.74

PANW -6%: Looks ok - NGS ARR and RPO better than street and inlineish with bogeys. NGS ARR Q2 guide better but RPO guide a bit light

Expects high heading into the print so a bit of sell the news give inline to slightly lighter

Announces a 2 for 1 stock split on Dec 16

Q1:

NGS ARR +40% y/y to $4.5B slightly light of Bogeys but slightly better than street
RPO +20% y/y to $12.6B vs street at $12.5B and inline with bogeys

Q2 Guide:

NGS ARR $4.7-$4.75B, inline with bogeys and above street at $4.65B
RPO: $12.9B-$13B vs street at $13B and bogeys a little higher
Revs: $2.22B - $22.25B

PANW RESULTS: Q1
- ADJ EPS $1.56, EST $1.48
- Revenue $2.14B, +14% y/y, EST $2.12B
- Product revenue $353.8M, +3.7% y/y, EST $344M
- Subscription and Support revenue $1.79B, +16% y/y, EST $1.78B
- Deferred revenue $5.51B, +16% y/y, EST $5.59B
- R&D expenses $480.4M, +17% y/y, EST $467.3M

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