Phantom of the Pits Abridged Version with Comments 《坑洞魅影》節錄版附註釋
By Tom Hougaard 作者：Tom Hougaard
Phantom of the Pits is an outstanding book, filled with wisdom, buried under 10 feet of chit-chat and irrelevant information. Phantom of the Pits 是一本傑出的書，充滿智慧，埋藏在 10 英尺的閒聊和不相關的資訊之下。
I have edited the book to its core, stripping out all the noise, and leaving you with a pure read of the greatest insight into the mind of a hugely successful trader. 我將這本書的核心內容進行了編輯，剔除了所有雜質，讓您可以純粹地閱讀這本書，深入瞭解一位極為成功的交易者的心靈。
Enjoy! 請盡情享用！
Phantom of the Pits 坑洞魅影
INTRODUCTION 引言
I heard about Phantom of the Pits many years ago. It is an unusual book. It was never published. It is free to download from many websites, including mine. 很多年前我就聽說過《坑洞魅影》。這是一本不尋常的書。它從未出版過。它可以從許多網站免費下載，包括我的網站。
The original version from 1997 is a 110-page mess. It is not an easy read at all. That is a shame, because it contains great nuggets of wisdom. The problem is that the nuggets are buried under 10 foot of irrelevance. 1997 年的原始版本長達 110 頁，簡直一塌糊塗。讀起來一點也不輕鬆。這是一個遺憾，因為它包含了許多智慧的寶貴片段。問題是，這些智慧的精華被埋藏在十英尺深的無關緊要之處。
I wanted an abridged version, and here it is. By all means read the original book, but if you want a shortened version, edited by a trader who knows what is relevant and what is not relevant, then my version is the one to read. 我想要一個簡略的版本，這就是我的版本。無論如何，您都可以閱讀原版書籍，但如果您想要的是由知道哪些相關哪些不相關的交易員編輯的縮寫版本，那麼我的版本才是您應該閱讀的版本。
THE ORIGINAL VERSION 原版
The original version of the Phantom of the Pits was published as a “free of charge” book in 1997. It is written by Arthur L Simpson. The book is essentially a conversation between two traders, Arthur, and his anonymous friend The Phantom. 《坑洞魅影》的原始版本於 1997 年以「免費」的方式出版。作者是 Arthur L Simpson。這本書基本上是兩個商人 Arthur 和他的匿名朋友 The Phantom 之間的對話。
I have contacted Arthur on several occasions to get permission to publish the book. I also contacted Futures Talk for permission. I don’t think they knew what book I was talking about, and Arthur is not responding to my emails. 我曾多次與 Arthur 聯繫，希望獲得出版這本書的許可。我也聯絡了 Futures Talk 取得許可。我認為他們不知道我說的是什麼書，而 Arthur 也沒有回覆我的電子郵件。
As I have no commercial interest in the book, I have taken a chance to publish it without permission. Considering the book can be downloaded from numerous websites (some even charge for it), I hope I am not breaking any laws. If I am, email me on hello@tradertom.com 由於我對這本書沒有任何商業利益，所以我冒險在未經允許的情況下出版這本書。考慮到這本書可以從許多網站上下載（有些甚至是收費的），我希望我沒有觸犯任何法律。若有違法，請寄電子郵件至 hello@tradertom.com
MY VERSION 我的版本
The original book has pages and pages of information which relates to trading 23 years ago. I am writing this in 2020, and I do not need to worry about “calling my broker” or “acquire accurate data”. 原版書中有一頁一頁的資訊，這些資訊與 23 年前的交易有關。我是在 2020 年寫這篇文章的，我不需要擔心「打電話給我的經紀人」或「獲取準確的資料」。
I am sure those were legitimate concerns 23 years ago. Today those problems are no longer an issue. We have lightning fast internet speed. We have accurate data. We have sophisticated trading platforms. 我相信這些問題在 23 年前是合理的。今天，這些問題已不再是問題。我們擁有快如閃電的網際網路速度。我們擁有精確的數據。我們有先進的交易平台。
In short, we are a quarter of a century further down the on-line trading road than when the original book was written. 簡而言之，我們在線上交易的道路上已經走了四分之一個世紀，比起原書寫成的時候更進步了。
My version has stripped away all the fluff. It will give you a pure read of the book. I have included my own comments in places, where I feel clarification was needed or an example of how this particular wisdom has transformed my own trading. 我的版本剔除了所有的雜質。您可以純粹閱讀這本書。我在一些地方加入了自己的評論，我覺得這些地方需要澄清，或者舉例說明這些特定的智慧如何改變了我自己的交易。
Whenever I have made a comment to the chapters, I have written it in blue. 每當我對章節提出意見時，我都會用藍色寫下。
I am following the book chronologically, chapter by chapter. Whenever something needs emphasis, I have put it in bold. However, there are chapters that I have not commented on at all. I have only included the material that is relevant to the trading rules. 我是按照時間順序，一章一章地讀這本書。每當有需要強調的地方，我都會以粗體標示。不過，有些章節我完全沒有評論。我只收錄了與交易規則相關的材料。
AN UNPOLISHED DIAMOND 未經打磨的鑽石
I think this is one of the greatest books on trading ever. There is no technical analysis in the book. There are no trading strategies revealed. 我認為這是有史以來最偉大的交易書籍之一。書中沒有技術分析。沒有揭示任何交易策略。
So why is it so good? 那麼，為什麼它這麼好？
It is good because trading is not about strategies. It is about mindset and money management. 這很好，因為交易與策略無關。它關乎心態和資金管理。
This comes from a man who has stared at charts for 20 years. I know in my heart that trading success is not down to an ability to read a chart. Chart reading helps, of course, but you can quickly learn to read a chart. 這是一個盯著圖表看了 20 年的人說的。我從心底裡知道，交易的成功並不取決於閱讀圖表的能力。讀圖當然有幫助，但你可以很快學會讀圖。
Making money trading is about operating from a rule-based perspective, which serves to guarantee you are still playing the game many years from now. 交易賺錢就是要從規則的角度來操作，這樣才能保證您多年後還能玩遊戲。
There are two sections to the book. 本書分為兩部分。
Section one is the formal part of the book. The two traders, ALS and POP, begin to discuss questions from readers. This is where the book loses its momentum. I have not included much from those sections. 第一節是本書的正式部分。兩位交易員 ALS 和 POP 開始討論讀者提出的問題。這是這本書失去動力的地方。我沒有收錄太多這些部分的內容。
Let’s get started. 讓我們開始吧。
PHANTOM'S GIFT 幻影的禮物
Most traders think the important element in success is knowledge. In my trading career I have found that correct knowledge and the ability to change behavior are the most important parts of successful trading. 大多數交易者認為成功的重要因素是知識。在我的交易生涯中，我發現正確的知識和改變行為的能力是成功交易最重要的部分。
Correct knowledge without behavior modification projects improper execution of an otherwise perfect trading plan. 沒有修正行為的正確知識，會使原本完美的交易計畫執行不當。
In three decades of learning correct trading knowledge and behavior modification, I have included in my trading plans two rules that present me with the ability to change my thinking and behavior. 在三十年學習正確交易知識和行為修正的過程中，我在我的交易計畫中加入了兩條規則，這兩條規則呈現了我改變思維和行為的能力。
Both rules are required for successful trading. Upon urging from a long-time trading friend, I shall share my insight on these rules. 這兩條規則都是成功交易的必要條件。在一位長期從事交易的朋友的敦促下，我將與大家分享我對這些規則的見解。
Essentially you will learn to operate your trading business from the vantage point of two rules. The whole book is about these two rules. 基本上，您將學習從兩個規則的觀點來經營您的交易業務。整本書就是關於這兩條規則。
Rule 1 will focus on how to take losses. Consider this before you read on. 90% of people who trade never make money. Maybe the percentage is higher, maybe it is a little lower, but whatever the percentage is, it is very high. 規則 1 將著重於如何承受損失。在您繼續閱讀之前，請考慮這一點。90% 的交易者從未賺過錢。或許這個百分比更高，或許更低一點，但無論百分比是多少，都是非常高的。
If you want to be a profitable trader, you need to learn what the 90%90 \% is doing. Once you have learned this, you need to train yourself into always doing the opposite of what the 90%90 \% is doing. 如果您想成為一名獲利的交易者，您需要學習 90%90 \% 在做什麼。一旦您學會了這一點，您就需要訓練自己永遠做與 90%90 \% 相反的事情。
That is simple logic. 這是很簡單的邏輯。
Rule 2 will focus on how to increase your position size when you are winning. In a game like trading, where you can expect to be right about 50% of the time, you need to make sure you make much more money when you are right, than you do when you are wrong. 規則 2 的重點是如何在贏錢時增加持倉規模。在像交易這樣的遊戲中，您可以預期大約有 50% 的時間是對的，因此您需要確保在對的時候賺的錢比錯的時候多得多。
Otherwise, you are merely playing to break even, or worse. 否則，您只是在玩收支平衡的遊戲，甚至更糟。
PHANTOM'S INSIGHT 幻影的洞察力
In this chapter, Art Simpson talks about how he met Phantom of the Pits. It is not relevant for trading, but I have included a small part of it. It gives you an idea of the respect Arthur Simpson has for his friend. 在本章中，Art Simpson 談到他如何遇到 Phantom of the Pits。雖然這與交易無關，但我還是收錄了其中一小部分。它讓您了解亞瑟辛普森對他朋友的尊敬。
It was almost 30 years ago that I had first met him. I didn’t see him as a tall man until years later. Over the years he had grown taller than I had imagined possible – not in height but in his confidence, his manner of thought, his gestures, his speech and all the characteristics you would expect of a hero. 我第一次見到他已經快 30 年了。直到多年後，我才發現他是個高個子。這些年來，他的長高超出了我的想像 - 不是身高，而是他的自信、思考方式、手勢、說話，以及所有您所期望的英雄特徵。
I met him in the pits in Chicago on even ground. We were trading the same futures. I got the best of him that day but just one lesson he taught me by week’s end showed that the market is more than a day! 我和他在芝加哥的交易場偶遇。我們交易的是同一種期貨。那天我贏過他，但他在週末給我上了一課，讓我知道市場不只是一天！
YOUR BOOK 您的書籍
To reiterate the points, I made in “Phantom’s Insights,” the following chapters in “Phantom’s Gift” are based on interviews with one of the most important and best traders I have ever known. 為了重申我在《Phantom「s Insights》中提出的觀點，《Phantom」s Gift》的以下章節是根據我所認識的最重要、最優秀的交易員之一的訪談內容編寫的。
His purpose in agreeing to these interviews is to help those who have the ability and desire to become the best traders they can possibly be. There is no claim to fame, so to speak, but only the honest effort to bring to other traders the insight of a very difficult business of trading for a living. 他同意接受這些訪問的目的是幫助那些有能力和願望成為最好交易員的人。可以這麼說，他沒有沽名釣譽，只是誠心誠意地努力為其他交易員帶來以交易為生這個非常艱難的行業的真知灼見。
Art Simpson (ALS): Art Simpson (ALS)：
Phantom, why do we start this book without knowing who you are for others to admire and thank? Phantom，為什麼我們不知道您是誰，就開始寫這本書，讓別人敬仰和感謝您呢？
Phantom of the Pits (POP): Phantom of the Pits (POP)：
I remember being on a train after one of my first trading days and thinking about how I had doubled my account in that one day. I looked around and was so proud of what I had done, but not one person on the train knew or would even care if they did know. 我還記得在我的第一個交易日結束後，我在火車上想著我是如何在那一天裡讓我的帳戶翻倍的。我環顧四周，為自己所做的事感到非常驕傲，但車上沒有一個人知道，即使他們知道也不會關心。
At that point my direction was self-driven in seeking out what was possible in trading. I know more now than I knew then. The markets have humbled me as a trader more times than I wish to remember. It’s always easier for an observer to put their finger on a problem than the one who is wrapped up in the situation. 當時我的方向是自我驅動，尋找交易的可能性。我現在比當時知道得更多。身為交易員，市場讓我謙卑的次數多到我不願記起。旁觀者總比身處其中的人更容易發現問題。
That is who I am! 這就是我！
It has taken years to understand that being wrong is what trading is all about. 我花了很多年才了解到，做錯才是交易的真諦。
ALS: ALS：
To you, what is the most important aspect of trading? 對您而言，交易最重要的是什麼？
POP: POP：
Behavior modification, without doubt, is the key to trading success – not only in how we think but also how we act in certain situations. We must adapt to changing situations over which we have no control. We must change the situations over which we do have control. 毫無疑問，行為修正是交易成功的關鍵 - 不僅是我們的思考方式，還有我們在特定情況下的行為方式。我們必須適應我們無法控制的不斷變化的情況。我們必須改變我們可以控制的情況。
A LITTLE HISTORY 歷史
Every day there was this trader named Cindy who would make her office (in the trading pit where POP traded) one tier in front of mine. Each day she would wait until she was sure where the market was headed and position. 每天都有一位名叫 Cindy 的交易員，她的辦公室（在 POP 交易的交易坑內）就在我的辦公室前面一層。每天，她都會等到確定市場走向之後，才會開倉。
It happened that I was strong into taking profits on the 3rd wave of buying or selling. It apparently was her breakout indicator. She would always take my offer below the last trade for selling, and before she carded it she would say, " I hate trading with you because I always lose when I take your trade." 碰巧的是，我在第三波買入或賣出時強勢進入獲利。這顯然是她的突破指標。她總是在最後一次交易賣出時接受我的出價，而在她卡住之前，她會說：「我討厭和你交易，因為我接受你的交易時總是輸。
I never forgot that statement she would make. Losing never stopped her from staying with her plan as she knew how to lose small and go with her program. I am sure she has made lots of money over the years. 我從來沒有忘記她的這句話。失敗從來沒有阻止她堅持她的計畫，因為她知道如何以小失大，並堅持她的計畫。我相信她這些年來一定賺了不少錢。
I sort of felt bad when she would say what she said, but it started me thinking about losing. Her mind was set correctly in trading. Funny how little incidents shape our belief in trading – some good and some bad. 當她說那些話的時候，我有點難過，但這也讓我開始思考虧損的問題。她對交易的想法是正確的。有趣的是，一些小事件塑造了我們對交易的信念 - 有些是好的，有些是壞的。
It requires a balanced life to sustain the meanness of the markets. Traders never plan for the bad days, and there are bad days. Either change your behavior or go down in defeat. 這需要一種平衡的生活來維持市場的卑劣。交易員從來沒有計畫過糟糕的日子，而糟糕的日子總是有的。要麼改變你的行為，要麼敗下陣來。
ALS: ALS：
What must they learn? 他們必須學習什麼？
POP: POP：
Most important, they must learn that they don’t have to make SELF-LEARNED mistakes. They are always better off to learn from OBSERVED MISTAKES. 最重要的是，他們必須學會，他們不一定要犯自學的錯誤。從觀察到的錯誤中學習總是比較好的。
It can be pretty costly to make mistakes in this business. You cannot really tell someone what to do, but often if you guide him or her, they will be more receptive to making the right decision. 在這一行中，犯錯的代價可能相當高。您無法真的告訴別人該做什麼，但如果您能引導他或她，他或她往往會更容易接受做出正確的決定。
ALS: ALS：
How do you differentiate between self-learned mistakes and observed mistakes? 您如何區分自學錯誤和觀察錯誤？
POP: POP：
Let us say you go to an eye doctor, and he asks you if you can see better out of lens A or lens B. You make a choice, and then he goes to the next step by asking you again if you can see better with lens C or D. This continues until you have the best lens criteria for your eyes. 假設您去看眼科醫師，他會問您鏡片 A 或鏡片 B 能否讓您看得更清楚。您做出選擇後，他會再問您鏡片 C 或鏡片 D 能否讓您看得更清楚。
Well, any mistake you make is a self-directed mistake, and it will hurt only you. No one can teach you not to make this self-learned mistake. 嗯，你犯的任何錯誤都是自學的錯誤，它只會傷害到你自己。沒有人能教你不犯這種自學的錯誤。
Now, if you tell the eye doctor you are blind in your left eye when he says cover your left eye and he then says cover your right eye, then you have an observed mistake. You wouldn’t make that mistake, and because you were affected by that mistake, even though it wasn’t your mistake, you will remember better. 現在，如果您告訴眼科醫生您左眼失明，當他說遮住左眼時，他又說遮住右眼，那麼您就有一個觀察到的錯誤。你不會犯這個錯誤，而且因為你受到這個錯誤的影響，即使這不是你的錯誤，你也會記得更清楚。
It is better to learn from a mistake that affects you directly when it is made by someone else. You have to be mistake-aware in trading because there are so many lessons. 當別人犯的錯誤直接影響到自己時，最好從中學習。在交易中您必須要有錯誤意識，因為教訓太多了。
ALS: ALS：
I see. I mean, it is clear what you mean on mistakes. Learn from others’ mistakes, and it is cheaper than learning from your own mistake? 我明白了。我的意思是，您對於錯誤的意思很清楚。從別人的錯誤中學習，比從自己的錯誤中學習還要便宜？
POP: POP：
I think you have it. 我想你拿到了
The truth is that the BEST LOSER is the long-term winner. 事實上，BEST LOSER 才是長期的贏家。
PREPARATION FOR TRADING 準備交易
I find much of this chapter entirely irrelevant. I have included a few relevant points. 我覺得這一章的大部分內容完全不相關。我將一些相關的觀點納入其中。
First, we must be prepared! It’s a step everyone must go through to get to where traders want to be in trading. To prepare oneself for trading is just as important as any aspect. Without it, a trader does not have the foundation to continue in trading. 首先，我們必須做好準備！這是每個人都必須經過的一步，才能達到交易者想要的交易境界。為交易做好準備與任何方面一樣重要。沒有它，交易者就沒有繼續交易的基礎。
Where does a trader start to prepare to be a successful trader? Too many beginning traders – and established traders as well – take the easy route and expect the markets to be cut and dry of what is required of them in their trading careers. They will paper trade and have fairly good success. 要成為一名成功的交易員，交易員應從何做起？有太多的初學交易者（也包括資深的交易者）都會走捷徑，期望市場對他們交易生涯的要求是一刀切的。他們會進行紙上交易，並取得相當好的成功。
This in no way prepares them for trading. They must be prepared in every way. That means mentally as well as physically and emotionally. Priorities must be in the proper place including family, friends and environments. 這絕對無法讓他們為交易做好準備。他們必須在各方面做好準備。這意味著精神上、身體上和情緒上的準備。優先順序必須放在適當的位置，包括家庭、朋友和環境。
ALS: ALS：
We have our office with a chair and a clock. What’s next? 我們的辦公室裡有一把椅子和一個鐘。接下來呢？
POP: POP：
You must establish a routine to set up the environment of each trading day. Allow at least one hour prior to the opening of your market. In this hour you should exercise from 10 to 20 minutes. This really does keep your mind sharper. 您必須建立慣例來設定每個交易日的環境。在開市前至少預留一小時。在這一小時內，您應該做 10 到 20 分鐘的運動。這確實可以讓您的頭腦更靈敏。
The next thing after your shower you should spend one or two minutes giving thanks to your higher power and explain what you are going to do with the funds you earn. Don’t be selfish about it. This actually gives your subconscious a reason for being a successful trader. 洗完澡之後的下一件事，您應該花一、兩分鐘的時間向您的上主感恩，並說明您要如何運用賺來的資金。不要太自私。這實際上給了您的潛意識一個成為成功交易者的理由。
ALS: ALS：
It all seems like a lot of work, and we have not started our learning process yet. 這一切看起來好像很費勁，而且我們還沒有開始我們的學習過程。
POP: POP：
The most important person in your trading is yourself. Take care of the minor details early, and you will have your routine. It is more of a positive reinforcement of what you are expecting from trading. 在您的交易中，最重要的人就是您自己。及早處理小細節，您就會有自己的例行公事。它更像是一種正面的強化，讓您對交易有所期待。
RULE NUMBER 1 規則 1
I am going to express the importance of doing the right thing from the beginning of a trade and at the right time. Many traders – and most new traders – aren’t even aware the market can do what it did to them today. 我要表達的是從交易一開始就在正確的時間做正確的事情的重要性。許多交易者--而且大多數是新交易者--甚至不知道市場可以像今天這樣對他們。
I have often said the BIG money is on the surprise side. I should perhaps have said the BIG LOSERS are on the familiar side or the popular side of a trade. I call that the expected side. 我經常說，大錢在驚喜的一邊。我也許應該說，大輸家在熟悉的一方或交易中受歡迎的一方。我稱之為預期面。
I need to ask you a few questions to better present my Rule Number 1. When the walk light comes on, assume there is traffic that will run the red light at each intersection you cross. What do you do now before you cross the intersection? 我需要問你幾個問題，以便更好地介紹我的第一條規則。當步行燈亮起時，假設在您橫過的每個十字路口都會有車輛衝紅燈。在您橫過十字路口之前，您現在會做些什麼？
ALS: ALS：
I would double-check and look both ways before crossing. 在過馬路之前，我會再三檢查並向兩邊張望。
POP: POP：
Of course, that is the correct answer – you know what I am after. Now, just because you looked both ways before you crossed and each time you cross you looked both ways and each time there wasn’t any traffic that ran the stop light, is there any reason to stop looking each time you cross the intersection? Your answer, of course, is no, you won’t stop looking. 當然，這是正確的答案 - 您知道我在追尋什麼。現在，僅僅因為您在過馬路之前看了兩邊，而且每次過馬路時您都看了兩邊，而且每次都沒有任何車輛衝紅燈，那麼您有任何理由在每次過十字路口時都不看嗎？您的答案當然是沒有，您不會停止觀看。
I don’t want to lose you in this thinking but to point out that it’s the same in trading as in crossing an intersection. We need to make our best assumption of what is possible. We must plan for that assumption in trading as long as it is a possibility and not just when it is probable. This is a very important point in understanding Rule Number 1 correctly! 我不想讓您在這種思考中迷失方向，而是想指出，在交易中，這與過十字路口是一樣的。我們需要對可能發生的事情做出最好的假設。在交易中，只要這種假設是可能的，我們就必須為它做好計劃，而不是僅僅在它有可能發生的時候。這是正確理解規則 1 的非常重要的一點！
If you were never to look at the intersection until proven wrong for not looking, wouldn’t it be too late? It is the same in trading. You must protect yourself from any possibility in trading and not just protect yourself when the probabilities are high. 如果您永遠都不看交叉路口，直到被證實不看是錯的，那豈不是太遲了？交易也是一樣。在交易中，您必須保護自己不受任何可能性的影響，而不是只在可能性高時才保護自己。
This will be the surprise side in trading. The surprise side is a possible outcome but not a very high or likely probability like today’s grain trade. When someone gives you a gift, you are surprised by it. 這將是交易中的驚喜面。驚喜面是一種可能的結果，但不像今天的穀物交易那樣有很高或很可能的概率。當有人送您禮物時，您會感到驚訝。
Getting that gift was not a high probability. However, you are prepared for that surprise because you say, “Thank You!” 得到那份禮物的可能性不高。然而，您為那個驚喜做好了準備，因為您說：「謝謝！」
Most traders plan only for the probability side and that, to them, is always what they consider the winning side. This is the biggest mistake you can make in trading. Instead, you must plan for the losing side. 大多數交易者只為概率方面做計劃，對他們來說，這永遠是他們認為的贏面。這是您在交易中可能犯的最大錯誤。相反，您必須針對虧損面進行規劃。
The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad. 控制倉位的正確方法是，只有當倉位證明正確時才持有。讓市場告訴你，你的倉位被證明是正確的，但永遠不要讓市場告訴你，你的倉位是錯誤的。作為一名優秀的交易者，您必須始終掌控自己，知道並告訴自己您的倉位什麼時候是糟糕的。
The market will tell you when your position is a good one to hold. Most traders do the opposite of what is correct by removing positions only when proven wrong. Think about that. Your exposure and risk are much higher if you let the market prove you wrong instead of your actions removing positions systematically unless or until the market proves your position correct. 市場會告訴您何時您的倉位適合持有。大多數交易者的做法與正確的做法相反，只有在證明錯誤時才會移除倉位。想想看。如果您讓市場證明您是錯的，而不是您的行動有系統地移除倉位，除非或直到市場證明您的倉位是正確的，否則您的風險和風險會高得多。
Let me give you an example before we state the first rule. Today let us say you sold beans just like your plan said to do at $6.30\$ 6.30 on the open. If that position did not prove you correct, you must remove it to reduce your risk. You decide what is correct according to your plan. 在說明第一條規則之前，讓我先舉一個例子。今天，假設您按照您的計劃在 $6.30\$ 6.30 開盤時賣出豆子。如果該倉位沒有證明您是正確的，您必須移除該倉位以降低風險。您根據您的計劃決定什麼是正確的。
Let us say you expected hedging to come in early and the price to drop from 5 to 8 cents in the first hour. It didn’t even drop 3 cents, so you remove the position. Say you removed it at $6.29\$ 6.29. Just because it showed a profit of 1 cent when you got out did not declare it a good position. However, your exit is a better exit than if you made the market tell you the position was wrong. 假設您預期對沖會提前出現，價格會在第一個小時內從 5 美分跌至 8 美分。它甚至沒有下跌 3 美分，所以您移除倉位。假設您在 $6.29\$ 6.29 時移除倉位。僅僅因為您出局時它顯示了 1 美分的利潤，並不能宣佈它是一個好倉位。但是，與您讓市場告訴您倉位是錯的相比，您的退出是更好的退出。
When you remove the position because the market proved you wrong, it is always a higher loss, and with stops it also is usually with higher slippage. This is not the same as removing the position because the market proved you wrong – say, buying back at $6.45 on a $6.42 stop. 當您因為市場證明您錯了而撤銷倉位時，總是會有較高的損失，而且在設有止損的情況下，通常也會有較高的滑點。這與因市場證明您錯了而移除倉位不同 - 例如，在 6.42 美元的止損位上以 6.45 美元買回。
By making the market prove you correct in order to hold a position is acknowledging that trading is a losers’ game and not a winners’ game. If you only remove your position because the market proves you wrong, you are acknowledging that trading is a winners’ game. 讓市場證明您是正確的，才能持有倉位，這就是承認交易是輸家的遊戲，而不是贏家的遊戲。如果您只是因為市場證明您是錯的才撤銷倉位，那您就是承認交易是贏家的遊戲。
You never want to be in a position that is never proven correct. If you only get out when the market proves you wrong, it is possible to have higher risk due to the longer time period required to prove your position wrong. We will further clarify these thoughts for you further into the book. 您絕不希望自己的倉位從未被證明是正確的。如果您只在市場證明您錯了時才出局，由於需要較長的時間來證明您的倉位是錯的，因此有可能會有較高的風險。我們會在書中進一步為您闡明這些想法。
Rule Number one: 規則一
In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) 在像交易這樣的失敗遊戲中，我們應從反對大多數開始，並假設我們是錯的，直到證明我們是對的！(我們不會假設自己是正確的，直到被證明是錯誤的為止）。
Positions established must be reduced and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct! (We allow the market to verify correct positions.) 建立的倉位必須減少和移除，直到或除非市場證明倉位正確！(我們允許市場驗證正確的倉位）。
It is important to understand that we are saying the one criterion for removing a position is because it has not been proven correct. We at no time use as criteria for removing a position the fact that the market proved the position incorrect. 重要的是要理解，我們所說的移除倉位的唯一標準是該倉位未被證明是正確的。我們在任何時候都不會將市場證實該倉位不正確作為移除倉位的標準。
There is a big difference here as to how we treat all positions from what most traders use. If the market does not prove the position correct, it is still possible the market has not proven the position wrong. If you wait until the market proves the position wrong, you are wasting time, money and effort in continuing to hope it is correct when it isn’t. 在這裡，我們對待所有倉位的方式與大多數交易者使用的方式有很大的不同。如果市場沒有證明倉位是正確的，那麼市場仍然有可能沒有證明倉位是錯誤的。如果您等到市場證明倉位是錯的，您就浪費了時間、金錢和精力，繼續希望倉位是正確的，但事實並非如此。
How many traders ever hoped it wouldn’t be proved wrong instead of hoping it was correct? If you are hoping it is correct, it obviously wasn’t ever proven to be correct. Remove the position early if it doesn’t prove correct. By waiting until a position is proved wrong, you are asking for more slippage as you will be in the same situation as everyone else getting the same message. 有多少交易者曾希望它不會被證明是錯的，而不是希望它是對的？如果您希望它是正確的，它顯然從未被證明是正確的。如果不能證明它是正確的，就及早移除倉位。如果您等到頭寸被證明是錯誤的，您就會要求更多的滑點，因為您會和其他人一樣收到相同的消息。
What makes this strategy more comfortable is that you must take action without exception if the market does not prove the position correct. Most traders do it the opposite by doing nothing unless they get stopped out, and then it isn’t their decision to get out at all – it is the market’s decision to get you out. 讓這個策略更舒適的是，如果市場沒有證明倉位正確，您必須毫無例外地採取行動。大多數交易者的做法恰恰相反，除非他們被止損，否則什麼都不做，那麼根本就不是他們決定出局 - 而是市場決定讓您出局。
Your thinking should be: 您的想法應該是
When your position is right, you have to do nothing instead of doing nothing when you are wrong! 當您的立場正確時，您必須什麼都不做，而不是當您錯誤時什麼都不做！
I would like to interrupt the book and tell you about my interpretation of rule number 1. Rule number 1 goes to the heart of trading. You must keep your losses small. 我想打斷一下這本書，告訴大家我對規則 1 的詮釋。規則 1 觸及交易的核心。您必須將您的損失控制在小範圍內。
However, that requires you are far more proactive in your management of your trades. It will mean having to make decisions based on an unknown variable called “The Future”. 然而，這需要您更主動地管理您的交易。這意味著您必須根據稱為 「未來 」的未知變量來做出決策。
It means learning to accept whatever outcome comes next. The whole premise of Phantom’s approach to trading can be summed up in a few words: 這意味著學會接受接下來的任何結果。Phantom 交易方法的整個前提可以用幾個字來概括：
Be in control at all times. 隨時掌控全局。
You must never let the market be in control of you. Let me give you an example of what I mean. 您絕對不能讓市場控制您。讓我舉個例子說明我的意思。
I enter a short position in the Dow Jones Index at 29,061. I have a stop loss 75 points away. 我在道瓊斯指數 29,061 點建立空頭倉位。我設置了 75 點的止損。
After 45 minutes the position is 15 points on the wrong side. I am not stopped out, but the position is not exactly flying in my favour either. 45 分鐘後，倉位錯誤了 15 點。我沒有止損，但倉位也不完全對我有利。
My interpretation of Rule 1 is that I should consider closing the trade. I had expected to be right sooner, but I am not. 我對規則 1 的解讀是，我應該考慮平倉交易。我原以為自己會早點說對，但我沒有。
What makes closing the trade a mental challenge is that the stop loss has not been breached. I have another 60 points of leeway on the stop loss before I am closed out, so why not give the market a chance to prove me right? 讓平倉交易成為心理挑戰的原因是止損尚未被突破。在我被平倉之前，止損還有 60 點的餘地，為什麼不給市場一個機會證明我是對的呢？
I believe that Phantom is arguing that the best positions are those which are proving to be right immediately. By having a small losing trade open, which is going nowhere, we are draining our attention and our margin on such a position. 我相信 Phantom 的論點是，最好的倉位是那些立即證明是對的倉位。如果我們持有一筆小額的虧損交易，而這筆交易卻沒有任何進展，那麼我們就會把注意力和保證金都耗費在這樣的倉位上。
Rule no 1 tells me to address my relationship with “hope” and “fear”. 規則 1 告訴我要處理「希望」和「恐懼」之間的關係。
As traders we hope that the position will come good, which is why we do not close the trade. We also fear that if we close the trade before the stop loss is hit, we may witness the position come good after all, and we fear that we will miss out on a good trade. 作為交易者，我們希望頭寸會有好的結果，這也是我們不平倉交易的原因。我們也擔心，如果我們在觸及止損之前平倉交易，我們可能會目睹倉位最終好轉，我們害怕會錯失一筆好的交易。
As you can see, this has nothing to do with technical analysis. 如您所見，這與技術分析毫無關係。
THE REAL PATH TO PROFITS 獲利的真正途徑
Can I offer a different vantage point? Can I offer a different thought process to your trading conundrum? 我能提供不同的觀點嗎？我能為您的交易難題提供不同的思考過程嗎？
I assume you want to make money. You want to be successful in trading. Only 5% of us are. Hold on to that thought for a moment. 我假設您想賺錢。您想在交易中取得成功。我們當中只有 5% 的人成功。請稍安勿躁。
I believe this to be true for all of us who trade: 我相信這對我們所有做交易的人來說都是真的：
We want to make money trading. 我們想在交易中賺錢。
We know most people fail. 我們知道大多數人都會失敗。
We know even really smart people fail. 我們知道即使是真正聰明的人也會失敗。
We know trading success is not just about technical analysis and intelligence. 我們知道交易的成功不只是技術分析和智慧。
This doesn’t solve the trading challenge, but at least we have the facts in front of us in plain sight. What if we trained ourselves to always to the opposite of what the 95%95 \% are doing? 這並不能解決交易上的挑戰，但至少我們有事實在眼前。如果我們訓練自己永遠與 95%95 \% 所做的相反呢？
What are they doing? They are always doing what feels good to do. They drift down the path of least resistance. 他們在做什麼？他們總是在做感覺好的事情。他們走的是阻力最小的路。
I solved this challenge many years ago. I don’t have a simple solution for you, BUT I have some simple logic for you. 我多年前就解決了這個難題。我沒有一個簡單的解決方案給你，但我有一些簡單的邏輯給你。
You want to make money? Then you need to look around. Look at the 90%. Why do the 90%90 \% run their losses? Because it is easy to do. 您想賺錢嗎？那麼你需要環顧四周。看看那 90%。為什麼 90%90 \% 會虧本？因為這很容易做到。
Why do the 90%90 \% take their profit so soon? Because it is easy to do. 為什麼 90%90 \% 這麼快就獲利？因為這很容易做到。
Why do the 90% bet more when they are losing? Because they are not in control of their emotion. They want their money back. 為什麼 90% 的人在輸錢時會下注更多？因為他們無法控制自己的情緒。他們想要回他們的錢。
Why do the 90%90 \% bet less when they are winning? Because they are not in control of their emotion. They protect what they have made. 為什麼 90%90 \% 在贏錢的時候下注較少？因為他們無法控制自己的情緒。他們會保護自己所做的一切。
I observed the behaviour of thousands of traders in my career as a broker. It served as a foundation of what I didn’t want to become. 在我的經紀人生涯中，我觀察了成千上萬的交易者的行為。它為我不想成為的人奠定了基礎。
Why don’t you observe your own trading behaviour right now, and then multiply that by “the masses”? The thing you find hard to do is what everyone else is finding hard to do. 您何不現在就觀察自己的交易行為，然後再乘以「大眾」？你覺得很難做的事情，就是其他人覺得很難做的事情。
It is hard to do “it”. The key word here is “t”. 要做到「它」很難。這裡的關鍵詞是 "t"。
Very few will do “it”. Very few are successful in trading. 很少有人會做 「它」。很少有人能在交易中取得成功。
By logic, do what is hard, and repeat “it” until it becomes second nature, and you are bound to be successful. 根據邏輯，做困難的事，重複「它」，直到它變成第二天性，您就一定會成功。
You will need to consistently do what the masses cannot do. 您需要始終如一地做大眾做不到的事。
What is this “it”? 這個「它」是什麼？
Well, that is what the whole book is about. “It” is doing the very things that is uncomfortable to do, because most people will not do what is uncomfortable. 這就是整本書的內容。"它」就是做那些做起來不舒服的事，因為大多數人都不會做不舒服的事。
As Charlie D says in another extraordinary trading book, “When you are a good trader, everything you do hurts. Everything feels uncomfortable.” 正如 Charlie D 在另一本非凡的交易書中所說，"當你是一個優秀的交易者時，你所做的每件事都是痛苦的。所有事情都會讓你覺得不舒服"。
Do you want me to give you examples? 要不要我舉例說明？
I run a live trading channel. I have more than 5000 followers. I trade in front of people so they can see for themselves how it can be done. 我經營一個實時交易頻道。我有超過 5000 名追隨者。我在人們面前進行交易，這樣他們就可以親眼看到我是如何做到的。
I receive hundreds of emails every month asking me the same questions over and over. Here are 2 questions I get asked frequently. 我每個月都會收到數百封電子郵件，反覆詢問我相同的問題。以下是我經常被問到的 2 個問題。
How do you grow your trading size? 如何擴大交易規模？
I cannot speak for others, but I can catalogue my own journey. I have discussed this in my book on trading psychology. I will keep the description short, and if you want more information, you should visit the “Resource” section of TraderTom.com and download my psychology book. 我無法為他人代言，但我可以為自己的心路歷程編目。我已經在我的交易心理學書籍中討論過了。我的描述會很簡短，如果您想瞭解更多資訊，請造訪 TraderTom.com 的「資源」部分，下載我的心理學書籍。
I started trading the size I was comfortable with. 我開始買賣我能接受的尺寸。
I made plans to increase my trading size when I reached an account threshold. 我制定了計劃，當我達到帳戶臨界值時就會增加我的交易規模。
I made the changes incremental, so as to not shock my brain. 我以循序漸進的方式進行變更，以免震驚我的大腦。
I measured everything I could about my own performance. 我盡我所能衡量自己的表現。
In practical terms I traded £10£ 10 a point. I aspired to trade £100£ 100 a point. I went from £10£ 10 to £12£ 12. Then I got used to £12£ 12. I then went from £12£ 12 to £16£ 16, and I would get comfortable with £16£ 16. 實際上，我交易了 £10£ 10 一分。我渴望交易 £100£ 100 一分。我從 £10£ 10 到 £12£ 12 。然後我習慣了 £12£ 12 。然後我從 £12£ 12 到 £16£ 16 ，我會習慣 £16£ 16 。
The numbers are irrelevant. You can move at a quicker or slower pace. The important thing to remember is to walk before you sprint. Do not compare yourself to anyone. Perfect your game step by step. 數字並不重要。您可以以較快或較慢的速度移動。重要的是要記住先走路再衝刺。不要與任何人比較。一步一步完善您的比賽。
When I got to £100£ 100, it felt like child’s play. When I got to £100£ 100, my goals shifted. Now I wanted to trade £500£ 500 a point. Once you have the process under control, you simply go through the repetitive motions. Isn’t that the hallmark of success? 當我讀到 £100£ 100 時，感覺就像兒戲一樣。當我到 £100£ 100 時，我的目標改變了。現在我想交易 £500£ 500 一個點。一旦你控制了這個過程，你就可以簡單地進行重複動作。這不就是成功的標誌嗎？
Success is not what we do every now and again. It is what we do all the time. 成功不是我們每隔一段時間就會做的事。成功是我們一直在做的事。
How do you hold on to winners? 如何把握贏家？
The 90% of traders, the losing traders, are great at holding on to losing trades. If they could hold on to winning trades the same way, they would be great traders. 90%的交易者，也就是那些虧損的交易者，很擅長堅持虧損的交易。如果他們能以同樣的方式堅持贏得的交易，他們就會成為偉大的交易者。
When I am asked this question, I always ask back if they have problems holding on to winning trades under all circumstances or just under certain circumstances. 當我被問到這個問題時，我總是反問他們是否在所有情況下都無法堅持贏得的交易，或者只是在某些情況下。
Without fail people will say they are good at holding on to winning trades when they are trading smaller sizes. However, when they try to scale up, they lose their objectivity. 當交易規模較小時，人們總會說他們很擅長堅持贏得的交易。但是，當他們嘗試擴大交易規模時，他們就會失去客觀性。
Someone might be unable to trade calmly when they trade 10 contracts, but if they are trading 1 contract, they are cool as a cucumber. That should tell you something. 有人可能在交易 10 份合約時無法冷靜地進行交易，但如果他們只交易 1 份合約，他們就會冷靜得像根黃瓜。這應該能告訴您一些事情。
It should tell you to trade up to your limit. Only by keeping a vigilant eye on yourself and your emotions will you be able to track the progress. When POP writes about his 它應該會告訴你交易到你的極限。只有對自己和情緒保持警覺，才能追蹤進度。當民研計劃寫到他的
success on a particular trading day, and then realizing on the train ride home, that no one cared about his success, all his motivation became self-driven. 在某個交易日取得成功，然後在回家的火車上意識到沒有人關心他的成功，他所有的動力都變成了自我驅動。
In case you forgot, here is the passage again: 如果您忘記了，這裡再說一次：
At that point my direction was self-driven in seeking out what was possible in trading. I know more now than I knew then. The markets have humbled me as a trader more times than I wish to remember. It’s always easier for an observer to put their finger on a problem than the one who is wrapped up in the situation. 當時我的方向是自我驅動，尋找交易的可能性。我現在比當時知道得更多。身為交易員，市場讓我謙卑的次數多到我都不記得了。旁觀者總比身處其中的人更容易發現問題。
I think the following extract from the book validates my thinking on this matter. 我認為這本書的以下摘錄驗證了我對此事的想法。
POP: POP：
Most traders keep their position until it proves to be wrong for them. I say do not keep any position unless it proves to be correct. 大多數交易者都會保留倉位，直到證明對他們來說是錯誤的。我說不要保留任何倉位，除非它被證明是正確的。
ALS: ALS：
Yes, but who is to say a position that was not proven correct turns from a bad position to a correct position? 是的，但誰能說未被證實正確的立場從不好的立場變成了正確的立場？
POP: POP：
That is the kind of thinking most traders have. They fear being wrong when they get out and that the market will show them, they should have stayed with the position. If they don’t take early losses, it becomes more difficult to take a loss as it gets larger. 這就是大多數交易者的想法。他們害怕出局時會出錯，害怕市場會讓他們知道，他們應該繼續持有倉位。如果他們不及早承受損失，隨著損失越來越大，承受損失就變得越來越困難。
However, the market assumption you must make is that big losses will eventually take you out of trading. 然而，您必須做出的市場假設是，大額虧損會最終讓您退出交易。
My Rule Number 1 is to address the swiftness needed in keeping your losses as small and quick as possible. It won’t always prove to be correct, but you will stay in the game this way. 我的第 1 條規則是解決所需的敏捷性，讓您的損失盡可能小且快。這不一定會被證明是正確的，但您會以這種方式保持在遊戲中。
Most traders don’t know what their choices are when it comes to assumptions about what is possible in trading. Keep in mind that traders are usually unaware that trading is a losers’ game. He who loses best will win in the end! 大多數交易者在假設交易中可能發生的事情時，都不知道自己的選擇是什麼。請記住，交易者通常不知道交易是輸家的遊戲。輸得最慘的人最終會贏！
Why not make a time-proven decision to change your behavior to trade the method that gives you the best long-term outlook? 為什麼不做出一個經過時間驗證的決定，改變您的行為，用能給您最佳長期展望的方法進行交易呢？
Trading is not gambling! Treat it as a business where you only want the best merchandise for the shortest possible time in order to have the maximum profit with the least possible chance of failure. 交易不是賭博！把它當成一門生意來做，您只想在最短的時間內買到最好的商品，以便以最小的失敗機會獲得最大的利潤。
That is what Rule Number 1 does for you. 這就是規則 1 為您做的事。
In trading most of you have a greater chance of being wrong than right! Trade accordingly. . which means expect the limit (being wrong more likely) in your trading. How can you come out ahead? In the short run, you can only with luck. But in the long run, luck tends to even back the other way. 在交易中，大多數人錯的機會比對的大！據此進行交易。.這意味著在您的交易中要預期極限（錯的機會更大）。您如何才能賺大錢？短期來說，您只能靠運氣。但長期來說，運氣往往會反過來。
You must trade in the long run! 您必須從長期角度進行交易！
So, what is a trader to do in a losing game? You must trade in the long run! How can you trade in the long run? Only way I know is that you must keep your losses small and take more small losses than small winners to come out ahead. This often means washing a position for the sake of being able to keep in the game. 那麼，交易者在虧損的遊戲中該怎麼做？您必須長線交易！如何進行長線交易？我知道的唯一方法是，您必須保持小損失並承受比小勝利更多的小損失，這樣才能贏得勝利。這往往意味著為了能夠繼續參與遊戲而洗倉。
The theorem now is to assume your position is wrong until the market proves what you positioned is correct. Keep your losses quick and small. Don’t ever let the market tell you you’re wrong. Always let the market tell you when your position is correct. 現在的理論是假設您的定位是錯誤的，直到市場證明您的定位是正確的。保持您的損失快速且小。永遠不要讓市場告訴你你錯了。永遠讓市場告訴你，你的倉位是正確的。
It is your job to know you are wrong and not the market’s job. 知道自己錯了是您的工作，而不是市場的工作。
The other side of the coin is that you will get positions that are correct. You must be bigger at that time. This will require a Rule Number 2, which is designed around adding to winners in an unfavorable game to come out ahead in the long run. 硬幣的另一面是，您會得到正確的位置。那時候您必須做大。這就需要規則 2，它是圍繞在不利的遊戲中增加到贏家，從而在長期中領先。
Learn to be wrong, fast. 快速學會錯誤。
Best Loser Wins 最佳失敗者勝出
The value of this chapter is simply immense. 本章的價值簡直無比巨大。
Even before we move on to rule number 2, we get a sense of a trader who has realised that in order to be a great winner, he needed to learn to lose often. 甚至在進入第 2 條規則之前，我們就能感受到交易員已經意識到，要成為大贏家，就必須學會經常輸。
The best loser wins. 最佳輸家獲勝。
It is so simple. If you want to win, you need to learn to lose. I know it may sound like those two things contradict each other. They do not. Once you understand the meaning of “The best loser wins”, you also understand why so few experience success in trading. 就是這麼簡單。如果你想贏，就必須學會輸。我知道這聽起來好像這兩件事互相矛盾。但事實並非如此。一旦您理解了 「輸得最慘的人就是贏家 」的意義，您也就理解了為什麼很少有人能在交易中取得成功。
As I type these words, I have a few trades open. I am short the market. The market is falling hard. I have more money in open profit than I have on my account balance. 在我敲下這些字的同時，我有幾筆交易尚未平倉。我在做空市場。市場正在重挫。我未平倉的利潤比我帳戶餘額上的錢還多。
However, there is a flip side to that story. About 90 minutes ago the profits were twice as big as they are now. 90 minutes ago, the market looked incredibly weak. Then the market staged a recovery. I am still in profit, but the rally has eaten a lot of my gains. 然而，這個故事也有其反面。大約 90 分鐘前，利潤是現在的兩倍。90 分鐘前，市場看起來非常疲弱。然後，市場上演了一場復甦。我仍然獲利，但反彈吞噬了我的大量收益。
This scenario would never have happened, had I not dealt with my fears. I would have shorted the market, and I would taken my profit as soon as I sensed that the market was moving against my profitable position. 如果我沒有處理我的恐懼，這種情況就不會發生。我會在市場上做空，而且一旦我感覺到市場的移動對我的獲利倉位不利，我就會立即止盈。
I learned to deal with a fluctuating profit through repeated exposure. I am going to tell you a story which has nothing to do with trading, but it has everything to do with the lesson I am trying to impart to you. 透過反覆的接觸，我學會了如何處理波動的利潤。我要告訴你一個與交易毫無關係的故事，但它卻與我要傳授你的教訓息息相關。
It was a cold winter day many years ago. The sun was up. It was a clear day. I was walking with my son along the beach. The air could not have been more than a few degrees above freezing. 那是多年前一個寒冷的冬天。太陽出來了。天氣晴朗。我和兒子在海灘散步。空氣中的溫度不會超過零下幾度。
Suddenly we saw a person in the sea next to us - swimming. The water was calm and crystal clear. We stood and marveled at anyone braving the cold water for so long. As chance would have it, the woman swimming came up on the shore, close to where my son and I stood. 突然，我們看見身旁的海中有一個人 - 在游泳。海水很平靜，清澈見底。我們站在一旁，對於有人能在冰冷的海水中奮戰這麼久感到驚訝。機緣巧合，那個游泳的女人上了岸，離我和兒子站的地方很近。
I walked up to her and commented on her incredible resilience. The water must have been no more than about 4-5 degrees. I asked her how she could withstand the cold water for so long. I am not unfamiliar with cold water myself. I have taken cold showers since I was 13 . However, a swim is a vastly different matter to a cold shower. 我走到她身邊，評論她令人難以置信的韌性。水溫應該不超過 4-5 度。我問她怎麼能在冷水中堅持那麼久。我自己對冷水並不陌生。我從 13 歲開始就洗冷水澡。但是，游泳和洗冷水澡是兩回事。
She said “Well, you start in the summer, and then you make sure you swim 2-3 times a week. As it gets colder, your body acclimatises to the cold water. There is no magic to it.” 她說：「嗯，您從夏天開始，然後確保每週游泳 2-3 次。隨著天氣變冷，您的身體就會適應冷水。這並沒有什麼魔力"。
5 years into my independent trading career I decided to change the way I traded. I started trading the way I knew would make me a long-term winner. I started losing on many more trades. I began to slowly and gradually build up my trading size. 獨立交易生涯開始 5 年後，我決定改變我的交易方式。我開始用我知道能讓我成為長期贏家的方式進行交易。我開始在更多的交易中虧損。我開始慢慢地逐步擴大我的交易規模。
I started with small stakes so that my mind could get used to seeing profits disappear. It was all about training my mind to be wrong a lot, and to appreciate that this way I would often see bigger profits disappear. However, I would be compensated by having very big profits. 我從小賭注開始，這樣我的頭腦就能習慣看到利潤消失。這一切都是為了訓練我的頭腦，讓我能經常犯錯，並體會到這種方式經常會讓我看到更大的利潤消失。但是，我會得到非常大的利潤來補償。
Over time my mind has been accustomed to seeing bigger and bigger stake sizes generating bigger and bigger profits. It has been hardened by the repetition of thousands of trades. 隨著時間的推移，我已經習慣了看到越來越大的注碼產生越來越大的利潤。成千上萬的重複交易使我的心智變得堅強。
We learn from observing our mistakes. Every time you make a mistake, you have an opportunity to learn something. Something did not work out. It exposes you to the part of the world or the part of you that you don’t consciously understand. 我們從觀察錯誤中學習。每一次犯錯，都是學習的機會。有些事情沒有成功。它讓你接觸到這個世界或你自己不自覺了解的部分。
The exposure to something that isn’t working or that you don’t understand gives you the possibility to rebuild the structures in your mind that you use to interpret the world. 接觸到一些不順利或您不了解的事物，讓您有可能重建您用來詮釋世界的心智結構。
Our mistakes become opportunities to learn. That is often why it is more important to notice you are wrong than prove you are right. Rule number 2 is about being right. 我們的錯誤變成了學習的機會。這就是為什麼注意到自己的錯誤比證明自己是對的更重要。規則 2 是關於正確。
RULE NUMBER 2 規則 2
I worked as a broker for 10 years. I saw some 100,000 people execute more than 100,000,000 (one hundred million trades) over those 10 years. I saw thousands and thousands of people destroy their trading accounts by adding to their losing positions. 我當了 10 年經紀人。在這 10 年中，我看見約 100,000 人執行了超過 100,000,000（一億筆交易）。我看到成千上萬的人通過增加他們的虧損倉位來摧毀他們的交易賬戶。
I saw perhaps a handful of traders add to their winning positions. That is what rule 2 is all about - pressing your winners. 我看到也許有少數交易員增加了他們的勝利倉位。這就是規則 2 的意義 - 壓緊您的贏家。
Press your winners correctly without exception. Without Rule 2, you will find that trading still isn’t even a 50/50 game. 無一例外地正確按下您的贏家。如果沒有規則 2，您會發現交易甚至仍然不是 50/50 的遊戲。
Without a correct method to press your correct positions, you will never recover much beyond your losses. 如果沒有正確的方法來按下正確的位置，您將永遠無法挽回損失。
You need rule two to ensure you have a larger position when you are correct. You always want a larger position when you get a great move or trending market than when your position is not correct. 您需要第二條規則來確保您在正確時有較大的倉位。您總是希望當您獲得一個偉大的移動或趨勢市場時，比您的倉位不正確時有更大的倉位。
As someone who likes to add to winning trades, and is often asked about the best way to do that, I am comforted by the following comment from the Phantom: 身為一個喜歡為贏得的交易加碼的人，而且經常被問到加碼的最佳方式，我對 Phantom 的以下評論感到欣慰：
Phantom of the Pits: 坑裡的魅影
There certainly will be debate on how you know when to add to a correct position and on how a market can turn a correct position into a wrong position. We will cover those debates later. First, let us get the rules and reasons established. By knowing what is expected in Rules 1 and 2, we can prove the theorem based on good assumptions and experience. 當然，對於如何知道何時加碼到正確的倉位，以及市場如何將正確的倉位變成錯誤的倉位，肯定會有爭論。我們稍後會介紹這些爭論。首先，讓我們確立規則和理由。只要知道規則 1 和規則 2 的預期，我們就可以根據良好的假設和經驗來證明這個定理。
Rule 2 does not mean just because you have a position in your favor that you must now add to that position. “Correctly” in Rule 2 means you must have a qualified plan of adding to your position once a trend has established itself. The proper criteria for adding positions depends on your time frame of expectations in your trade plan. 規則 2 並不表示您有了一個對您有利的倉位，您就必須現在加倉。規則 2 中的 「正確 」是指一旦趨勢確立，您必須有一個合格的加倉計劃。正確的加倉標準取決於您交易計劃中的預期時間範圍。
You might be a day-trader just trading back and forth, a short -term trader, weekly trader, monthly trader or trend trader only. The add criteria will be different for each trade plan. 您可能只是來回交易的日間交易者、短線交易者、週線交易者、月線交易者或僅趨勢交易者。每個交易計劃的新增條件都會有所不同。
The important point of Rule 2 is to point out the rule is established so you can make the most gain with the least drawdown expectations. You must also use Rule 1 properly. 規則 2 的重點在於指出規則的建立是為了讓您能以最小的縮水預期獲得最大的收益。您也必須正確使用規則 1。
Rule 2 is important for it keeps you in a good position as well as impresses upon your own thinking about having a correct position initially. Most traders are conditioned to want to take a profit to prove to themselves that they are right. Being right does not, in itself, make the most amount of profit. 規則 2 是很重要的，因為它可以讓您保持良好的倉位，並讓您對最初擁有正確倉位的想法留下深刻印象。大多數交易者都希望獲利來證明自己是對的。正確本身並不會帶來最大的利潤。
Most traders also want to get out before the market turns and takes away any profit they may have. Ordinarily, they will let losses get larger but only let gain get started before getting out. This is just simple human nature when having a market position. Human nature in trading is not often proper trading technique. 大多數交易者也希望在市場轉向之前出局，以賺取他們可能擁有的任何利潤。通常情況下，他們會讓損失變得更大，但只會在獲利開始之前出局。這只是擁有市場頭寸時簡單的人性。交易中的人性往往不是正確的交易技巧。
Always a good reason for adding to a winner is because traders usually tend to doubt the position unless they reinforce the correctness of that position. Adding to the position correctly best does this. 在贏家的基礎上加倉永遠是一個很好的理由，因為交易者通常傾向於懷疑倉位，除非他們鞏固該倉位的正確性。正確加倉最能夠做到這一點。
Correctly adding to a proven position must be done so that a pyramid isn’t established that will hurt the trader in a minor reversal. Each add onto an original position should be done in smaller and smaller steps. As an example, if you put six contracts on as your initial position, you should use four contracts for your first add and two contracts for your next add. This gives you twice the original position when all three positions are in place. This is a 3:2:1 ratio in establishing three levels of positioning. 必須正確地加到已經證實的頭寸上，這樣才不會形成一個金字塔，在輕微的反轉中傷害交易者。在原始頭寸上的每次加倉都應該以越來越小的步驟進行。舉例來說，如果您的初始倉位是六張合約，您應該在第一次加倉時使用四張合約，在下一次加倉時使用兩張合約。這樣當三個倉位都到位時，您的倉位就是原始倉位的兩倍。這是建立三層定位的 3:2:1 比例。
Reviewing Rule 2, it states only that you must add to correct (proven) positions and that it must be done correctly. The rule does not tell you how to add, as this is your requirement in the trade plan you develop. The rule makes no exception on adding to correct positions. The intent of Rule 2 is twofold: Reinforce your correct position both mentally in your thinking and your execution and increasing the size of your position. 回顧規則 2，它只說明您必須向正確（經證明）的倉位加碼，而且必須正確地進行。該規則沒有告訴您如何加倉，因為這是您在制定交易計劃時的要求。該規則對於向正確倉位加碼沒有例外規定。規則 2 的目的有兩方面：在思維上和執行上強化您的正確倉位，並增加倉位的規模。
Day-traders will have a problem with Rule 2 unless they position properly and understand that their adds must only be made correctly. Day-traders are in for the quick profit so it is hard to have a good add plan. Their best trade is to put all positions on at once – original and adds – and use Rule 1 to take them off unless or until proven correct. Believe me, this is the proper probability in a loser’s game like trading. 日間交易者會對規則 2 有疑問，除非他們適當地定位，並瞭解他們的加價必須只在正確的情況下進行。日間交易者是為了快速獲利，所以他們很難有一個好的加倉計劃。他們最好的交易是一次把所有倉位都放在上面 - 原始倉位和追加倉位 - 然後用規則 1 把它們取下來，除非或直到被證明是正確的。相信我，在交易這種輸家的遊戲中，這是適當的概率。
These two rules are to give you the long-term ability to continue to trade with the least amount of drawdown and the best possibility of making the most money in the long run. Huge drawdown is the critical reason some traders go out of the business. 這兩條規則是為了讓您有長期持續交易的能力，以最少的虧損和最大的可能性賺取最長期的利潤。巨大的虧損是一些交易者出局的關鍵原因。
You must start your trade plan with rules created to protect your equity. I am presenting those rules to incorporate into your plan. Experience has proven these rules a necessity in survival and reaching your objective of making the most return with the least amount of risk. 您必須以為了保護您的權益而制定的規則來開始您的交易計劃。我將介紹這些規則，以便將其納入您的計劃中。經驗證明，這些規則是您生存和達成以最小風險賺取最大回報目標的必要條件。
I want the traders to ask themselves two questions: 我希望交易者問自己兩個問題：
"Do you put only part of your expected position on from the initial entry? "您是否從最初入市時就只投入部分預期倉位？
“Are you planning for adds prior to your initial trade?” 「您是否打算在初次交易前增加？」
If the answer to either of these questions is no, then you must go back and rethink your trading program. 如果這兩個問題的答案都是否定的，那麼您必須回去重新思考您的交易計畫。
I have said it before. If you can think it, you can do it. Perhaps the traders aren’t thinking it to begin with because it certainly is not expected thinking without the proper planning. 我以前說過。如果你能想到，你就能做到。也許交易者一開始就沒有想到，因為如果沒有適當的規劃，這肯定不是預期的想法。
More thought must go into Rule 2 as it is not as self-explanatory as Rule 1. It is true that Rule 2 is what makes my money for me. It does it in the long run and not the short run. 必須花更多心思在規則 2 上，因為它不像規則 1 一目了然。誠然，規則 2 能為我賺錢。長期而言，而非短期而言。
I think one of the of the hidden benefits of using Rule 2 in your trading plan is that it will actually keep you from over-trading from the entry through to the end of the position if used properly. 我認為在您的交易計畫中使用規則 2 的隱藏好處之一是，如果使用得當，它實際上會讓您從入市到持倉結束都不會進行過度交易。
By incorporating Rule 2 in your game plan from the start, you will be eliminating the desire to be proud when the market moves your way and want to take profits to show that you are right. Traders love to be right. 從一開始就將規則 2 納入您的遊戲計畫中，您就可以消除當市場朝您的方向移動時驕傲的欲望，並想要獲利來證明自己是對的。交易者喜歡自己是對的。
This is your enemy . . . to love to be right. Your motivation must be to love to do the right thing in trading by either reinforcing correctly your position or removing it should it not prove to be correct. 這是您的敵人 . . . 喜歡做對的事。您的動機必須是喜歡在交易中做正確的事，正確地鞏固您的倉位，或在證明不對時撤銷倉位。
You see, when you think you are right in the market, this is just the beginning of your trade – not the time to take your profits to say to the world, “See, I was right!” Let me ask you, “Who really cares if you were right?” So what? 您看，當您認為自己在市場上是對的時候，這只是您交易的開始 - 而不是拿著您的利潤對全世界說：「看，我是對的！」的時候。讓我問你，「誰會真正在乎你是否是對的？」那又怎樣？
You will become the best trader you can be by being wrong small, not right small! Get that in your mind now. You are going to have to press your winners if you really consider yourself to have the ability to make a living or extra income from trading. Otherwise, face the truth that you are only playing to break even. 你將成為最好的交易者，靠的是 「小錯」，而不是 「小對」！現在就把這一點記在腦子裡。如果您真的認為自己有能力通過交易賺取生活費或額外收入，您就必須壓住贏家。否則，面對事實，你只是在玩收支平衡的遊戲。
Who wants to play for a tie? I sure don't! 誰想打成平手？我當然不想
I remember a trader asking me how I felt about making money in my early days. She wanted to know how much I made. I indicated to her that if I did not make at least a thousand dollars a day, it wasn’t even worth trading to me. She said she would be happy with a hundred a day. 我記得有一位交易員問我早期賺錢的感覺如何。她想知道我賺了多少錢。我向她表示，如果我每天賺不到至少一千美元，我根本不值得做交易。她說每天能賺一百美元她就很滿意了。
I asked her if she added to winners. She said there was no reason to add to winners. I didn’t mean to laugh at her but at what she said. I pointed out to her that, if she had three days a week where she made money and two where she lost, she would be in the hole for it would be a 50/50 game if she was never able to add to winners. 我問她是否有加入贏家。她說沒有理由加到贏家。我不是要笑她，而是笑她說的話。我向她指出，如果她一週有三天賺錢，兩天虧錢，她就會陷入困境，因為如果她從來沒有為贏家加注，就會變成 50/50 的遊戲。
My point was that you must make bigger money on your good days and not just the same amount of money you lose on your bad days. You would be better off working for a living rather than trading if that is the case. 我的意思是，您必須在好的日子賺更多的錢，而不是只在不好的日子輸掉同樣多的錢。如果是這樣的話，您最好還是以工作為生，而不是以交易為生。
I cannot help you with over-trading or being under-margined. You must correct that situation before you can ever expect to be on even ground with the big funds. You must at all times be able to put only a portion of your expected position on at entry and be able to at least double your size somewhere along the route of an expected move. 我無法幫助您解決交易過度或邊際利潤不足的問題。您必須先糾正這種情況，才能期望與大型基金平起平坐。在任何時候，您都必須能夠在入市時只投入預期倉位的一部分，並能夠在預期移動的途中至少加倍您的規模。
Rule 1 and rule 2 are designed to keep you in the game for good. 規則 1 和規則 2 旨在讓您永遠留在遊戲中。
I may be confident on my trade implementation, but rule number 1 will remind me of two things: 我可能對我的交易執行很有信心，但規則一會提醒我兩件事：
1. Be confident, but be humble enough to admit when you are wrong. 1.要有自信，但也要夠謙虛，承認自己的錯誤。
2. Put only part of the position on. 2.只穿上部分位置。
Part 2 of rule 1 is new. It enables me to scale into a trade, and if I am wrong, because the market moves against me immediately, then I will get a loss on half my size. 規則 1 的第 2 部分是新的。它讓我可以按比例進行交易，如果我錯了，因為市場立即出現不利於我的移動，那麼我就會得到一半規模的虧損。
If I am right, then I will add more to my trade, because I now have some profits from the first entry. 如果我是對的，那麼我會在交易中增加更多，因為我現在已經從第一次入市中獲得了一些利潤。
Now, anyone who knows me, knows that this is all fine in theory, but I will be the first to admit that theory and reality don’t always go hand in hand. 現在，任何認識我的人都知道，理論上這是沒問題的，但我會是第一個承認，理論和現實並不總是同步的人。
Therefore, I try to protect as much of my “first entry” profit as I can, by moving my stop loss down. This is much easier said than done, and it is an immense challenge when you are day trading. 因此，我嘗試通過下移我的止損，盡可能保護我的 「首次入市 」利潤。這說起來容易做起來難，當您進行日間交易時，這是一個巨大的挑戰。
If you are swing trading, then time is on your side, and you have more bandwidth in the form of time to put on the second entry. 如果您進行的是波段交易，那麼時間就在您身邊，您有更多的帶寬時間來進行第二次入市。
I am giving you a rule that not only makes you larger when you are right but keeps you smaller when you are wrong from the start of a position. I am also giving you a way to not over-trade. It is up to you to make sure you are properly funded to make this step an important one in your favour. 我給您一個規則，它不僅能讓您在做對時獲利更多，而且能讓您在做錯時從倉位一開始就獲利更少。我還給了您一個避免過度交易的方法。您需要確保您有適當的資金，使這一步成為對您有利的重要一步。
Never over-trading was one of the criteria of my Rule 2. A lot of thought went into Rules 1 and 2, and it must come out the other side for you to understand before it will work well. 永不過度交易是我的規則 2 的準則之一。規則 1 和規則 2 花了很多心思，它必須從另一邊出來讓您了解，才會運作良好。
ALS: ALS：
Okay, you are telling the readers that using Rule 2 properly will keep them from over-trading because their entire position is never in place until they have added the remainder of their initially expected position only after the market has proven the position correct along the journey of the move they are working with in the trade. 好了，您是在告訴讀者，正確使用規則 2 可以讓他們避免過度交易，因為他們的整個倉位永遠都不會到位，直到市場證明他們的倉位在交易中的移動過程中是正確的，他們才會增加最初預期倉位的剩餘部分。
What the traders have failed to see is that to correctly use Rule 2, they never put the entire desired position on until or unless Rule 2 needs to be used along the way. Am I correct so far? 交易員沒有看到的是，要正確使用規則 2，他們永遠不會把整個想要的頭寸都放在上面，直到或除非在途中需要使用規則 2。到目前為止，我說的對嗎？
POP: POP：
Yes, you are. What other points am I making? 是的，你是。我還有其他觀點嗎？
ALS: ALS：
Your Rule 2 is also protection from adding to losers and keeping the initial position smaller until proven correct. Is that right? 您的第 2 條規則也是保護不加到輸家，並保持較小的初始倉位，直到證明正確為止。是這樣嗎？
POP: POP：
Not exactly. What I want them to understand about that point is that they will only get bigger when their criteria in their trading program tells them it is time to add. They will not add just because the initial position has been proven correct. When they have completed their adding of additional positions, then and only then should they have their entire expected position established. 不完全是。關於這一點，我希望他們明白的是，只有當他們的交易程式中的標準告訴他們是時候加碼時，他們才會加碼。他們不會因為最初的倉位被證明是正確的就加倉。當他們完成加倉後，才會建立起整個預期的倉位。
Traders are over-trading most of the time when they say they can’t seem to justify adding to an existing position. Most of the time a trader does not think about the reason for adding because they have their initial position on from the start. This is their maximum risk from the start. 當交易者說他們似乎沒有理由在現有倉位上加倉的時候，他們大多數都是在過度交易。大多數時候，交易者不會考慮加倉的原因，因為他們從一開始就持有初始倉位。這是他們一開始就承受的最大風險。
That is never what you want in trading. You must take some risk but never your maximum. That is exactly what they are doing if they cannot plan for added positions along the way. 這絕對不是您在交易中想要的。您必須承擔一定的風險，但絕非最大風險。如果他們不能計劃在交易過程中增加倉位，這正是他們正在做的事情。
ALS: ALS：
It is so obvious now! It is just like playing chess and seeing after the stalemate that you could have won so easily if you had just thought there could have been a stalemate. 現在已經很明顯了！這就像下棋時，僵局結束後才發現，如果你認為可能會有僵局，你就可以輕易贏得比賽。
POP: POP：
Yes, the trader is playing for a stalemate if they don’t use Rule 2 in some form somewhere along the way in their trading plan. Isn’t it simple? 是的，如果交易者不在交易計劃中的某個地方以某種形式使用規則 2，他們就是在玩僵局。這不是很簡單嗎？
TRADING WITH RULES 1 AND 2 根據規則 1 和 2 進行交易
Art Simpson (ALS): Art Simpson (ALS)：
Phantom, your required rules seem pretty simple. Let’s use some practical applications in real-time trading. 魅影，您所要求的規則看起來相當簡單。讓我們在即時交易中使用一些實際應用。
Phantom of the Pits (POP): Phantom of the Pits (POP)：
You must research your trade program well enough to be able to not enter at bad entry levels. Even if you make a simple mistake such as chasing markets, Rule 1 will still keep you from excessive drawdown during your trading career. 您必須充分研究您的交易程式，才能不在不好的入市水準入市。即使您犯了簡單的錯誤，例如追逐市場，規則 1 仍會讓您在交易生涯中避免過度縮水。
Today, as an example, I bought the DJIA after a 30-point rise and expected to see another 5 -point increase within 30 seconds. After 30 seconds I bailed. I had a loss of 1 point on the trade. The market continued to drop against me, and my loss would have been 30-40 times my commission, even if I had paid top commission at the low point. 舉例來說，今天我在道瓊斯工業平均指數上升 30 點後買入，預期 30 秒內會再上升 5 點。30 秒之後，我放棄了。我在交易中虧損了 1 點。市場繼續對我不利地下跌，即使我在低點支付了最高佣金，我的損失也會是我佣金的 30-40 倍。
Now you can’t tell me that it is better to stay in and wait for the market to come back than it is to get out and re-evaluate the situation. 現在你不能告訴我，留在裡面等待市場回歸，比退出來重新評估情況更好。
In the end I would have been right, but my mental standing after a simple Rule 1 trade is a lot better and allows me to have sanity about my next move. 最後，我的想法是對的，但在簡單的規則 1 交易之後，我的心理狀況好了很多，也讓我對下一步的行動有了理智。
What I am going to say next is something usually learned not by observation but by making the assumption itself. Most of your money from trading is going to come from trades that take off rather quickly from when you put them on. 我接下來要說的，通常不是從觀察中學到的，而是從假設本身學到的。您從交易中賺到的大部分金錢，都會來自那些從您開始交易之後便迅速起飛的交易。
That is the reason Rule 2 is so important. Just look at most starting trends and the good runs you have once a market turn. The chop-chop markets aren’t going to give you good income. 這就是規則 2 如此重要的原因。只要看看大多數的起始趨勢，以及一旦市場轉向時您所擁有的良好運行。斬倉市場並不能給您帶來好的收益。
You can never let your guard down in trading. You must always know what the next step is for you in any situation. You rehearse your criteria of a trade, and it becomes second nature – just like driving a car becomes a subconscious effort for you when you are proficient at it. 在交易中，您絕對不能放松警惕。在任何情況下，您都必須知道下一步該怎麼做。您練習交易的標準，它就會成為您的第二天性 - 就像當您熟練駕駛汽車時，駕駛汽車就會成為您的下意識動作一樣。
You start out by not knowing what the trade will ever do when you put it on. You can never control what the market will do or how the orders will enter the pits. You cannot tell me when a large fund is going to take a profit or enter a new position. Nor can anyone else tell you for certain. 您一開始下單時，並不知道交易會如何進行。您永遠無法控制市場會做什麼，也無法控制訂單如何進入攤位。您無法告訴我大型基金何時會獲利或進入新倉位。其他人也無法確定地告訴您。
All you can do is build your criteria or trade plan to take every angle that is important into account. I can give you a plan that will catch every move, but you will catch moves that are the wrong way, too. 您能做的就是建立您的準則或交易計劃，將每個重要的角度都考慮在內。我可以給你一個計劃，讓你抓住每一個動作，但你也會抓住錯誤的動作。
You are expecting a big reward and fail to see the big risk that faces you at first. Somewhere along the way you must face the situation for what it is. Trading is a loser’s game. You must learn how to lose. The biggest loser who loses small will continue in the game. 您期待著豐厚的回報，卻沒有看到一開始所面臨的巨大風險。在某個階段，您必須面對現實。交易是輸家的遊戲。您必須學會如何輸。輸得少的最大輸家才會繼續遊戲。
A trader must know and accept what the market can do along the damage side to equity, to mental peace and to self-esteem. Every day is a big surprise in trading. You must plan for the surprise from the time you put your position in place. The big surprise can sometimes be a friend, but you must be prepared for it. 交易者必須知道並接受市場對資產、心理平和及自尊所造成的損害。在交易中，每天都是一個大驚喜。您必須從建立倉位開始就為驚喜做好計劃。大驚喜有時可能是朋友，但您必須為它做好準備。
Why do I say the market is going to give you a surprise? Can you tell me exactly how far a market will move and then retrace before continuing? Or if it will continue? 為什麼我說市場會給您驚喜？您能告訴我市場到底會走多遠，然後回調再繼續嗎？或者是否會繼續？
What you can do is to eliminate your reactions to what the market does to you. You do this by not giving the market the power to control your position or emotions with adverse market moves. You start out expecting the adverse market moves and plan your action based on those outcomes. 您可以做的是消除您對市場對您所做事情的反應。要做到這一點，您就不能讓市場控制您的倉位或情緒。您一開始就預期市場的不利變動，並根據這些結果計劃您的行動。
When you place a trade, don’t ever think this is the only trade to make. There are thousands of trades you can make. You aren’t going to miss a move for long if you trade correctly. You aren’t going to chase markets if you trade correctly. You must have a plan to enter positions based on each market’s criteria. 當您進行交易時，千萬不要以為這是唯一可以進行的交易。您可以進行成千上萬的交易。如果交易正確，您不會長時間錯過移動。如果交易正確，您就不會追逐市場。您必須根據每個市場的標準制定入市計劃。
Behavior modification can take place in many forms, but you need a rule to show you what must be done at all times. Just because you put on a trade that lost money is no reason to feel bad. If you put a position on and lose big money, that is when you can feel very bad. 行為修正可以以多種形式進行，但您需要一個規則來告訴您在任何時候都必須做什麼。僅僅因為您做了一筆虧損的交易，並不是您感到難過的理由。如果您做了倉位卻虧了大錢，這時您就會感覺非常糟糕。
With Rule 1 you are freeing yourself from having to feel bad. You put the trade on based on the trade plan. The market either confirms and you now have a good position, or it doesn’t confirm, and you are not okay with the position and you get out. Simple! 有了規則 1，您就不必再感到難過。您根據交易計劃進行交易。要麼市場確認，您現在有一個好倉位；要麼市場不確認，您對倉位不滿意，您就出局。很簡單！
Most of your trades that don’t confirm within a logical time frame are usually going to look bad sooner or later. Why not take the sooner? 您的大多數交易如果不能在合理的時間內確認，通常遲早都會看起來很糟糕。為什麼不越快越好呢？
ALS: ALS：
It’s beginning to look like it takes more thought to put a trade on than the time you’re going to be in it if you’re wrong . . . or I mean not proven to be in a correct position! 現在看來，要花費更多心思去做一筆交易，而不是在你錯了的情況下......或者我的意思是沒有證明你的倉位是正確的！
POP: POP：
The logical step is to have the plan in place for the next step before you put on the trade. I would guess that 95%95 \% of the traders put the trade on and then wait for the market to prove they have a bad position. Even if the position is correct, their next step is wondering when to get out. It’s human nature to do it their way. It causes a lot of unsuspecting reactions in their lives. 合乎邏輯的步驟是，在您進行交易之前，先做好下一步的計劃。我猜測 95%95 \% 的交易者會先進行交易，然後等著市場證明他們的倉位不對。即使倉位是正確的，他們的下一步是想知道什麼時候出局。按照他們的方式做是人類的天性。這在他們的生活中造成了很多不知不覺的反應。
ALS: ALS：
I would like to ask you a question that I have wondered over the past couple of decades: When you take a position, do you feel you have taken a good position? 我想問您一個問題，這也是我過去幾十年來一直想知道的問題：當你採取一個立場時，你覺得你採取了一個好的立場嗎？
POP: POP：
Never! Do you understand my NO? If a trader thinks at any time, they have a very good trade, they are going to get removed from trading very quickly. I make the best trade on my trade probabilities program, but who is to say my guess is better than someone else’s? Never do I know it is a good trade until it proves to be. 從來沒有您明白我的 NO 嗎？如果交易者在任何時候認為，他們有一筆非常好的交易，他們會很快從交易中被剔除。我在我的交易概率程式上做了最好的交易，但是誰能說我的猜測比別人的好呢？在事實證明之前，我永遠不會知道這是一個好的交易。
To feel you are making a good trade is signing your death warrant in trading. 如果您覺得自己正在進行一筆好的交易，那您就等於在交易中簽署了死亡令。
There is an old saying that the market is never wrong. I don’t mean to protest directly, but I think that is not always the case. However, that is what we must trade by in price. 有句老話說：市場永遠不會錯。我不是想直接提出抗議，但我認為事實並非總是如此。然而，這就是我們交易時必須依據的價格。
Markets go to extremes, and that is certainly a challenge in always being right. Once we know markets go to extremes, we can put that on our side and exploit the advantage. Very few traders exploit that advantage. You must press your winners with Rule 2. 市場會走向極端，這對於永遠保持正確肯定是一項挑戰。一旦我們知道市場會走向極端，我們就可以把它放在我們這邊，並利用它的優勢。很少有交易者會利用這種優勢。您必須以規則 2 來壓制您的贏家。
Oftentimes, you won’t understand the importance of pressing the winners, but it makes no difference as to reason when you collect your profits. Who really cares if the market is or isn’t always correct? The market price is what we are measuring our equity with and always will. 很多時候，您不會理解按下贏家的重要性，但這與您收取利潤時的理由無關。誰會真正在乎市場是否永遠正確？市場價格才是我們衡量股本的標準，而且永遠如此。
Don’t ever let anyone tell you they have a long-term position on at any time. How do they know? How does anyone know? Only the market can tell you, and it opens every trading day. Don’t ask me what I think. It doesn’t matter. I can only give you the best odds. It is up to you to believe what the market is telling you. 永遠不要讓任何人告訴你，他們在任何時候都有長期的倉位。他們怎麼知道？別人怎麼知道？只有市場可以告訴你，而且每個交易日都會開市。別問我怎麼想。這並不重要。我只能給你最好的賠率。你要相信市場告訴你的話。
ALS: ALS：
How about Rule 2? 規則 2 如何？
POP: POP：
What can I say other than set up an example. Okay, let us say beans opened today at 85-88 and after the first half hour 85 was still the low but 90 was the high. What would you do if it were 15 higher at 88 and you put on your position yesterday? Would you get out and take your profits, take half your profits or add to the position? 除了舉個例子，我還能說什麼呢？好吧，假設豆子今天以 85-88 開盤，前半小時後 85 仍是低點，但 90 是高點。如果它在 88 價位高出 15 點，而您昨天建了倉，您會怎麼做？您會出局獲取利潤、獲取一半利潤還是加倉？
I will tell you what most will do: They will take all of their profits. That is when you know your position was proven correct again from yesterday. What do you think the correct answer is? 我告訴你大多數人會怎麼做：他們會拿走所有利潤。這時您就知道您的倉位從昨天開始又被證明是正確的。您認為正確的答案是什麼？
You must use Rule 2. You certainly don’t reverse pyramid by putting the same or bigger positions on because the market could very well take out the lows quickly, and you will have to salvage what you increased if wrong. Do it in smaller numbers. Your plan must tell you when you know that what you did yesterday is confirmed okay and that you must increase your position somewhere along the line. 您必須使用規則 2。您當然不會以相同或更大的倉位來倒轉金字塔，因為市場很可能會快速拋出低點，如果錯了，您就必須搶救您增加的倉位。以較小的數量來做。您的計劃必須告訴您，當您知道您昨天所做的已經證實沒問題，而且您必須在某處增加您的倉位時。
Sure, the argument is, “But I am not sure it will keep going up.” So what? We never really know that anyway. So, what is different about going with the current certainty? 當然，有人會說，「但我不確定它還會繼續上升」。那又如何？反正我們也不知道。那麼，隨著目前的確定性走，有什麼不同呢？
As long as you have Rule 1, it makes no difference if you are wrong because you have all the doors covered. Don’t ever lose sight of Rule 1 when using Rule 2. 只要您掌握了規則 1，即使您錯了也沒什麼區別，因為您已經掌握了所有的門道。使用規則 2 時，千萬不要忽略規則 1。
Okay, today we pointed out a situation where it was obvious to add. Looking back, it is always obvious. What matters is that after enough lead on your position after you have put some time between the position and an advancing price of a little magnitude, you must be pretty sure it’s time to take your profit. 好了，今天我們指出了一個很明顯的添加情況。回顧過去，它總是顯而易見的。重要的是，在您的倉位上有了足夠的領先優勢之後，在倉位和稍微幅度的價格上漲之間放了一些時間之後，您一定非常確定是時候獲利了。
Well, don’t take your profit. Add to your position. Then, if it doesn’t prove correct, take your remaining profit and expect to re-enter at a different level. 好吧，不要把您的利潤。增加您的倉位。然後，如果它無法證明是正確的，就拿走您剩餘的利潤，並期待在不同的水準重新入市。
So, what if you lose a few ticks because you put an added position on, and it was wrong! You will get enough lead on adds that you won’t ever think twice after you see the runaway markets! 所以，如果您因為加倉而錯失了幾個點子，那又怎樣？您將獲得足夠的加價機會，在您看到失控的市場後，您就不會再三思了！
It isn’t because I say so but because the market catches traders the wrong way. It is seldom that it’s not the case. 不是因為我這樣說，而是因為市場抓錯了交易員的方向。很少有不是這樣的情況。
Phantom of the Pits is not giving a recipe for when to add to winning trades. We are asked to figure that out ourselves. Phantom of the Pits 並沒有提供何時加入勝利交易的秘訣。我們需要自己找出答案。
I have never come across a trading book that discusses how to add to winning trades. I don’t think this book is the right setting for discussing the question. 我從未遇過一本交易書討論如何為贏得的交易做加法。我認為這本書不適合討論這個問題。
I have added to my winning trades for many years. Maybe my observations on the matter can point you in the right direction. 多年來，我一直為我的勝利交易做加法。也許我對此事的觀察可以為您指出正確的方向。
I have lost count of all the times where my good and profitable position turned sour because I had added to the trade. 我已經數不清有多少次，我的良好獲利倉位因為我的加碼交易而變質。
I find that adding to a trade is a great antidote to the emotion of wanting to take profit. 我發現在交易中追加交易是一種很好的解藥，可以緩解想要獲利的情緒。
I add for as long as the position is moving in my favour. This goes against what POP says. He argues you add 2-3 times and you do it in a pyramid format. I add in skyscraper style. It means my positions double up and double up, while POP adds half the original size on his second position. 只要倉位的移動對我有利，我就會加注。這與 POP 所說的相反。他認為您應該加注 2-3 次，並以金字塔的形式進行加注。我的加注方式是摩天樓式的。這意味著我的倉位加倍再加倍，而 POP 則在他的第二個倉位上加原有規模的一半。
When the market trends, I make a lot. 當市場有趨勢時，我就會賺很多。
When the markets are range bound, I am often stopped out of my add on positions with a loss. 當市場處於區間震盪時，我的加碼頭寸往往會被止損。
DAY TRADING 日間交易
This section clearly gives away that this was written 23 years ago. 這部分清楚地透露出這是 23 年前寫的。
POP and ALS traded under different circumstances and restrictions than we do today, in 2020. You have to remember that when this document was written, online trading was in its infancy. Literally. POP 和 ALS 的交易環境和限制與我們今天 2020 年的交易環境和限制不同。您必須記得，在撰寫這份文件時，線上交易還處於起步階段。從字面上來看。
Today, 23 years later, the trading industry is in a hugely different place. I believe there is value in the chapter, but I felt that singling our paragraphs would lose the context. 23 年後的今天，貿易業的情況已大為不同。我相信這章節很有價值，但我覺得單獨列出我們的段落會失去背景。
Therefore, I have not posted any essential posts from Chapter 8, except this one: 因此，除了這篇文章之外，我沒有張貼第 8 章的任何重要文章：
Sometimes your criteria may be that you must be swift to take any possible loss -especially when a certain Fed chairman speaks. 有時候，您的標準可能是您必須迅速承受任何可能的損失 - 尤其是在某位美聯儲主席發言時。
ALS: ALS：
Is there a way to plan for such surprises? 有沒有辦法為這樣的意外做好計劃？
POP: POP：
Yes, there is . . . by not ever over-trading at any time. 是的，有......在任何時候都不要過度交易。
CLOUD HOPPING 尋找雲端
There are advantages and disadvantages in charting. When you use charts to look back to get signals, you are setting yourself up to believe you can actually be more right than wrong. It is possible, but you must never forget Rule 1, regardless of how accurate your chart indicator shows over the past. Just because it worked nine out of the last ten times does in no way suggest that it will stay 90%90 \% accurate. 做圖表有利也有弊。當您使用圖表來回顧過去以獲取信號時，您會讓自己相信您實際上可以做對的比做錯的多。這是有可能的，但您絕對不能忘記規則 1，無論您的圖表指標在過去顯示得有多準確。僅僅因為它在過去十次中有九次是準確的，絕不表示它會保持 90%90 \% 準確。
Protect your positions at all times. 隨時保護您的位置。
Do your research! Do it again! Learn what different outlook charting can do for your trading plan. 做你的研究！再做一次！了解不同的展望圖表能為您的交易計畫做什麼。
Your trading career should be a long-term expectation on your part. A short time frame is not acceptable in trading. I am not saying that short-term trades are not acceptable but that you must look beyond one day in your trading career. Some of the best traders started out broke! And then they got more broke. Until success! 您的交易生涯應該是您的長期期望。在交易中，短時間是不可接受的。我並不是說短期交易是不可接受的，而是說在您的交易生涯中，您必須把眼光放遠。有些最優秀的交易者一開始是身無分文的！然後他們變得更窮。直到成功！
BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION 行為修正
Abstract 摘要
ALS: Where do you start in changing your behavior to proper behavior for successful trading? ALS：要改變您的行為，使其成為成功交易的適當行為，該從哪裡開始？
\section*{POP:}
It goes back to history class. Not everyone liked history, but it was a way of understanding prior behavior and events in order to plan for the future. It is the same in trading. We must understand our present behavior so we can judge what we need to do to make changes in our trading style, if any at all. 這要追溯到歷史課。不是每個人都喜歡歷史，但它是一種了解先前行為和事件以規劃未來的方式。在交易中也是一樣。我們必須了解我們目前的行為，這樣才能判斷我們需要做些什麼來改變我們的交易風格，如果有的話。
A person will make the same mistake again and again if there is not a properly learned reaction to a particular consequence of an event. We must know the right and wrong reaction before we can make any judgment as to what is correct for the situation. 如果對於事件的特定後果沒有正確學習反應，一個人就會一而再、再而三地犯同樣的錯誤。我們必須先知道正確和錯誤的反應，才能判斷什麼才是正確的情況。
Most situations are pretty obvious as to what a proper reaction should be. Most traders assume their reaction is proper in the consequence of what the market has done. Some traders are better at knowing the correct behavior than others. The correct behavior is a learned process and not one that is always obvious. 大多數情況下，適當的反應是非常明顯的。大多數交易者假設他們的反應在市場所做的結果中是正確的。有些交易者比其他人更懂得正確的行為。正確的行為是一個學習的過程，而不是一個總是很明顯的過程。
(Traders) They take a big loss and, they will never take that signal to position again or perhaps just won’t take it the next time. Now, that is not proper learned behavior. It is learned behavior by instinct due to a consequence of an event. (交易者）他們吃了大虧，而且，他們永遠不會再接受該定位信號，或許只是下一次不接受該信號。現在，這不是正確的學習行為。這是由於事件的後果而本能學會的行為。
This is just one of the examples I mean for you to understand when I say behavior modification is one of the most important aspects in becoming successful in trading. 當我說行為修正是交易成功最重要的一環時，這只是我想讓您了解的其中一個例子。
How can a trader expect to be successful unless the trader knows the proper behavior to react to an event, especially unexpected events, which a trader seldom is expecting? 除非交易者知道對事件（特別是交易者很少預期的意外事件）作出反應的正確行為，否則交易者如何能期待成功？
I think that, along with my two rules of trading, a trader must have a good inventory of what behavior they need to survive and succeed in trading. Something that has been missed on my rules up to this point by traders (in the Futures Talk forum) is that the two rules incorporate behavior modification within the rules. 我認為，除了我的兩條交易規則之外，交易者還必須對他們在交易中生存和成功所需要的行為有一個很好的盤點。到目前為止，交易者（在期貨談論區）一直忽略了我的規則中的一點，就是這兩條規則中包含了行為修正。
ALS: ALS：
Explain how behavior modification is in your first rule! 解釋行為修正如何在您的第一條規則中！
POP: POP：
Look at what the rule states! In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct! Positions established 看看規則是怎麼說的！在像交易這樣的虧本遊戲中，我們一開始就應該反對大多數人，並假設我們是錯的，直到證明我們是對的！建立頭寸
must be reduced and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct. (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong. We allow the market to verify correct positions, not incorrect positions.) 必須減少和移除，直到或除非市場證明倉位正確。(在證明錯誤之前，我們不會假設自己是正確的。我們允許市場驗證正確的倉位，而不是不正確的倉位)。
Rule 1 incorporates behavior modification by expressing the truth that trading is a losing game and that we start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct. 規則 1 包含行為修正，表達交易是一場失敗的遊戲，我們一開始就與大多數人對立，並假設我們是錯的，直到證明我們是對的。
By stating that trading is a losing game, we think differently each time we position. By also stating we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct, we also change our thinking. 透過說明交易是一場虧本遊戲，我們每次定位時都會有不同的想法。同時，我們也聲明，我們應該從反對大多數人的角度出發，假設我們是錯的，直到證明我們是對的，這樣我們也就改變了我們的想法。
We should not trade under false assumptions for if we think most everyone wins in trading, our behavior is going to be based on winning protection rather than losing protection. 我們不應該在錯誤的假設下進行交易，因為如果我們認為大多數人在交易中都是贏家，那麼我們的行為就會建立在贏家保護而不是輸家保護的基礎上。
In other words, our focus will be on when to take our gains without thought on taking a loss, much less a quick loss. 換句話說，我們的重點在於何時獲利，而不會考慮虧損，更不會考慮快速虧損。
We need that correct assumption to be able to correctly incorporate the proper behavior when we have positioned. With the proper assumption we can now include the proper behavior. 我們需要正確的假設，才能在定位時正確納入適當的行為。有了正確的假設，我們現在就可以加入適當的行為。
We are going to concentrate on protecting what we have rather than what we expect to make first. That is behavior modification. This, above all else, is just as important in trading as any plan for entry and exit. 我們要集中精力保護我們所擁有的，而不是我們期望先賺到的。這就是行為修正。在交易中，這一點與任何入市和出市計劃同樣重要。
Next, we know from the rule the proper behavior for protecting our positions is to remove them unless the market proves them correct. This is the proper behavior instead of letting the market tell you that you are losing money. 接下來，我們從規則中知道保護倉位的正確行為是移除倉位，除非市場證明它們是正確的。這是正確的行為，而不是讓市場告訴你正在虧錢。
When the market tells you that you’re losing money, your reaction to get out is not by instinct because nothing really physical happens to you except that maybe you get a sick feeling in your stomach. 當市場告訴您您在虧錢時，您的反應並不是本能地離場，因為除了您的胃部可能有不舒服的感覺之外，您並沒有任何真正的生理現象。
That sick feeling as your body chemistry changes doesn’t teach you anything about the proper behavior. It is a fact that you will become braver when your body chemistry changes as that is a protection, which is natural. This is not the behavior you want to learn. 當您的身體化學物質改變時，那種噁心的感覺並不會教您任何正確的行為。事實上，當您的身體化學變化時，您會變得更勇敢，因為那是一種保護，這是很自然的。這不是您想要學習的行為。
Actually, you never want to get to the point of a market move making you sick. It is destructive, and you won’t react properly without learned behavior modification. 事實上，您永遠不希望市場移動讓您感到不舒服。這是具有破壞性的，如果沒有經過學習的行為修正，您將無法做出正確的反應。
Rule 1 is designed to protect you from ever being in a situation of distress. In distress you will make the wrong decision in trading most of the time. There are always exceptions but not at first. Because all traders must start somewhere, why not learn properly as soon as possible? 規則 1 旨在保護您不會陷入困境。在窘境中，您大多數時候都會做出錯誤的交易決定。總會有例外，但一開始不會。因為所有的交易者都必須從某個地方開始，為什麼不盡快好好學習呢？
Again, not to repeat myself but it is necessary to say it is the same in trading. Traders mostly change their behavior by what they are told. Is this the proper behavior modification for traders? The answer, of course, is no, not at all. 再次重申，我不想重複，但有必要說的是，在交易中也是一樣的。交易者大多數是靠別人告訴他們什麼來改變自己的行為。這是交易者適當的行為修正嗎？答案當然是不，完全不是。
A trader must learn from research what the proper behavior modification is in all possible situations. This takes lots of inner soul searching and market data to understand what behavior takes them to the threshold of successful behavior in trading. 交易者必須從研究中學習，在所有可能的情況下，正確的行為修正方式是什麼。這需要大量的內心反省和市場資料，才能了解什麼行為能讓他們在交易中達到成功的臨界點。
You see, behavior modification is your responsibility and no one else’s. You cannot dictate behavior to anyone. All I can do is tell you I feel it is not possible to succeed in trading at all without some sort of plan for proper behavior modification. I could never have survived without it. 您看，行為修正是您的責任，與他人無關。你不能對任何人的行為指手劃腳。我所能做的就是告訴你，我覺得如果沒有某種適當的行為修正計劃，根本不可能在交易中取得成功。沒有它，我根本不可能生存下來。
You see, what the outside basketball coach did was to incorporate his knowledge of why most free throws are missed. It is usually because the ball never clears the rim getting to the basket. He told his students to shoot the ball higher above the rim. 您看，這位外籍籃球教練所做的，就是結合他的知識來解釋為什麼大部分的罰球都沒有命中。這通常是因為球在進入籃筐時從未擦過邊框。他告訴他的學生要在高於邊緣的地方投球。
Even though they had not shot a single basket, they were able to improve their behavior through knowledge. They go together, knowledge and behavior modification. 儘管他們一個籃子都沒有投進，但他們能夠透過知識改善自己的行為。知識與行為修正是相輔相成的。
I want to give you a well-known statement, and it is effective in trading, too: “You have to think about it before you can act on it!” I am a believer in the small trader. We just need to point out they must shoot higher above the rim to have better odds. 我想告訴你一句人所共知的話，它在交易中也很有效：「你必須先思考，才能付諸行動！」我是小交易者的信徒。我們只需要指出他們必須在邊緣上方投得更高，才能有更好的勝算。
Behavior modification learned from knowledge is what they must research in their trading careers if they expect to succeed. 如果他們期望成功，從知識中學到的行為修正是他們在交易生涯中必須研究的。
Abstract 摘要
ALS: What is the most important point of this chapter on behavior modification, the point you want traders to remember? ALS：本章關於行為修正的最重要觀點是什麼？您希望交易者記住的觀點是什麼？
POP: POP：
There are several but the one that is often missed or misunderstood is this: Trading is a losing game, and the best loser is the big winner! 有幾個，但經常被遺漏或誤解的是這一點：交易是輸家的遊戲，最好的輸家才是大贏家！
If I were to tell you that your signal to enter a market has the criteria that you must also be swift in protecting that position and correcting that position as quickly as you can, would you be able to reverse your position as many as three or four times. 如果我告訴你，你進入市場的信號有一個標準，那就是你也必須迅速地保護該倉位，並盡可能快地糾正該倉位，你是否能反轉你的倉位多達三或四次。
You would be more agreeable to that prospect by being alert to the possibility of having to reverse your original position. That thinking would make it easier for you to make the needed adjustments to your position. 如果您能警覺到有可能要改變您原本的立場，您會更容易接受這個前景。這種想法會讓您更容易對您的立場做出所需的調整。
This is what you must do anytime you enter a position. You must know that the initial entered position is just the beginning of your trade. Rather than taking a position and 這是您在任何時候進入倉位都必須做的。您必須知道，最初進入的倉位只是您交易的開始。而不是在進入倉位後
letting emotion enter the picture, you must understand that position does not justify any emotional modification of your thoughts. 讓情緒進入畫面，您必須了解，立場並不代表您的想法有任何情緒化的修改。
Stop that position before emotion even enters the trade by removing the position. You can re-enter the position correctly again and again until you have no emotional effect from that position. If your position brings emotion into the picture, it is usually wrong or the wrong way. 在情緒還未進入交易之前，透過移除倉位來停止該倉位。您可以一次又一次正確地重新進入該倉位，直到該倉位對您沒有任何情緒影響為止。如果您的倉位將情緒帶入，通常是錯誤的或錯誤的方式。
The market will seldom comply with your position at first, but that in no way says not to trade correctly. A lot of times your entry is at the place where many think the same as you. Don’t ever feel bad about this because you’re not alone in your thinking. It is that you seldom can all be right at the right time. 市場一開始很少會順應您的立場，但這絕對不是說不能正確交易。很多時候，您的入市位置是在很多人和您想法相同的地方。永遠不要為此感到難過，因為你的想法並不孤單。只是你們很少能在正確的時間都是正確的。
The edge you have over everyone else’s thinking is that you know you are quicker than the eye. You can remove your positions quickly because you are alert to the idea of knowing you can re-enter immediately quicker than the eye. 你比其他人的思維優勢在於你知道你比眼睛更快。您可以快速移除您的倉位，因為您有警覺性，知道您可以比眼睛更快地立即重新進入。
A bad or incorrect position is the best opportunity to do the correct thing. You are going to always do the correct thing. 不好或不對的位置是做正確事情的最好機會。您要永遠做正確的事。
Be swift! 要迅速！
You can stop this emotional feeling of always getting in at the wrong place immediately, and it will soon become second nature to you. 您可以立即停止這種總是在錯誤的地方進車的情緒化感覺，而且很快就會成為您的第二天性。
If you find that you feel you are wrong as soon as you enter, remove that position because you are right (in removing that position!) Why do I know this works? I know that some of my best days and trades are when I started out wrong with a position. Learn to understand that an existing wrong position is the best excuse to get a good position. 如果您發現您一進倉就覺得自己錯了，那就移除該倉位，因為您是對的（在移除該倉位！）為什麼我知道這有效？我知道我最好的一些日子和交易都是在我一開始錯倉的時候。學習了解現有的錯誤倉位是獲得好倉位的最佳藉口。
So, what if you are wrong and wrong and wrong again. 所以，如果你錯了又錯，錯了又錯，那又如何？
The best part of being wrong is that you are going to do the correct thing by removing that wrong position. Listen to your inner thoughts on being wrong, and when emotion becomes an element, remove the position. 做錯的最大好處是，你要去做正確的事，把那個錯誤的位置移除。傾聽您內心對於做錯事的想法，當情緒成為一種元素時，就移除這個位置。
It really works. Emotion has no place in a trade. If emotion is in your trade, it is a wrong position. 它真的有效。情緒在交易中沒有任何地位。如果情緒在您的交易中，那就是錯誤的位置。
ALS: ALS：
It seems easy to say but how about executing the idea of getting out when emotion shows its face in your trade? 說起來似乎很容易，但是當情緒出現在您的交易中時，執行出局的想法如何？
POP: POP：
You must make it a mechanical thing. It can be done in various ways. Most new traders don’t have enough funds to diversify properly so they have several positions, 您必須讓它成為一件機械的事情。可以用多種方式做到這一點。大多數新交易者都沒有足夠的資金來進行適當的分散投資，所以他們有好幾個倉位、
which gives them the opportunity of throwing out the bad and keeping the good with lower overall risk proportionally. 這讓他們有機會丟掉壞的，保留好的，並按比例降低整體風險。
There are other ways of making the removal of emotional positions mechanical such as when you use Rule 1. You are not going to become as emotional when a position proves correct as when it proves wrong. 還有其他方法可以讓移除情緒化的立場變得機械化，例如當您使用規則 1 時。當倉位證明正確時，您不會像證明錯誤時一樣變得情緒化。
So, what you need to do is listen to yourself and your emotional distress of knowing that you and not the markets are going to tell yourself that you are wrong in a position. Your emotional distress is telling you to remove the position immediately. 因此，您需要做的是傾聽自己的心聲，傾聽自己的情緒困擾，知道是您而不是市場告訴自己您的倉位是錯的。您的情緒困擾會告訴您立即移除頭寸。
Do that without hesitation, and it becomes mechanical to you. Isn’t the purpose of Rule 1 to also listen to yourself and not the market on telling yourself when you are wrong. If you let the market tell you, you have an elevated emotional distress, which now will affect your judgment and decision to remove a bad position properly. Because we don’t allow the market to tell us when we are wrong but only when we are right, we must have something tell us when we are wrong. 毫不猶豫地做到這一點，它就會成為你的機械。規則 1 的目的不也是要聽自己說話，而不是讓市場告訴自己什麼時候做錯了嗎。如果你讓市場告訴你，你的情緒就會變得高漲，這會影響你的判斷和決定，讓你無法適當地移除不好的倉位。因為我們不允許市場在我們錯的時候告訴我們，而只允許市場在我們對的時候告訴我們，所以當我們錯的時候，一定要有東西告訴我們。
What do you think that is? There is probably not a better signal to get out than the beginning of elevated emotion in a trade. 您認為這是什麼？在交易中，可能沒有比情緒開始高漲更好的出局信號了。
I know it take practice and a method of behavior modification, which you must devise to help you work with the implications of emotional elevation when wrong in a trade. You can do it and make it a habit after a little practice. It is no different than if you were to go to a stranger each day and say good day. 我知道這需要練習和行為修正的方法，您必須設計出這種方法來幫助您在交易中出錯時處理情緒高漲的影響。只要稍加練習，您就能做到並養成習慣。這與您每天對陌生人說「日安」沒有什麼不同。
After a period of doing it, you would find it second nature. 經過一段時間後，您會發現這是第二天性。
Keep your loss small and quick; act early while you have the opportunity, otherwise you will allow bigger losses to affect your loss taking and thinking. This is why I call entry the dangerous time of a position. It is your first opportunity to keep losses small. 保持您的損失小而迅速；趁有機會時及早行動，否則您會讓更大的損失影響您的虧損承擔和思考。這就是我稱入市為倉位危險時刻的原因。這是您保持較小損失的第一次機會。
The first opportunity to keep losses small is your best opportunity. What you do immediately upon entry of a trade determines whether you will be a good loser and the best winner you can be. 第一個讓損失小的機會就是您最好的機會。您在進入交易時立即做的事，決定了您是否會是一個好的虧損者，也決定了您是否能成為最好的贏家。
We do make the market prove us right rather than wrong, and that is the reverse of common thinking. We do assume we are wrong and in an unfavorable game until proven correct. That is also reverse image. In Rule 2 we do press our winners, and that is the reverse of taking losses or the other side of the coin. 我們確實讓市場證明我們是對的，而不是錯的，這與一般的想法相反。在被證明正確之前，我們會假設自己是錯的，並處於不利的遊戲中。這也是逆向圖像。在規則 2 中，我們要壓制我們的贏家，這是承受損失的反面或硬幣的另一面。
Yes, I guess that by looking in a mirror you could easily understand why others do not see as you do. You really are looking at a reverse image. Sometimes it is important to see things differently than others. I have learned it is better in trading to be different. 是的，我想只要照照鏡子，你就能很容易理解為什麼別人的看法和你不一樣。你真的是在看反面的影像。有時候，以不同於他人的方式看待事物是很重要的。在交易中，我學會了與眾不同會更好。
You never need to conform to anyone’s view but your own in trading. Don’t forget that! Use your own ability to improve your behavior in trading. 在交易中，除了您自己的觀點之外，您永遠不需要符合任何人的觀點。不要忘記這一點！運用您自己的能力來改善您的交易行為。
Who I am is always going to be more important to myself than anyone else in the field of trading. It must be that way in order not to interfere with my duties of success. 在交易領域中，我是誰對我自己來說永遠比任何人都重要。必須如此，才能不影響我成功的職責。
It is not a selfish thing; it is just that we must be in control first. You see, trading must be the most important thing in your life for it to be possible for you to become the trader you know you are capable of being. 這並不是一件自私的事情；只是我們必須先掌控自己。你看，交易必須是你生命中最重要的事情，你才有可能成為你知道自己有能力成為的交易員。
You will take the blame and try to take the claim. But listen to me! You must never be so lost in your trading to think that your success is because of you. 你會負上責任，並試圖索取賠償。但請聽我說！你絕不能在交易中迷失方向，以為你的成功是因為你自己。
This ends the first part of the book. What now follows - in the book - are comments and questions, which POP and ALS are discussing. 本書的第一部分到此為止。接下來 - 在書中 - 是 POP 和 ALS 正在討論的評論和問題。
POP: POP：
I want you to go into the next stage of your trading by accepting an assumption. I want you to accept an assumption that you have made 15 trades in a row that have all made money. 我要您接受一個假設，以進入交易的下一個階段。我要您接受一個假設，那就是您連續進行了 15 次交易，而且都賺了錢。
ALS: ALS：
I thought you said we were going to assume the big drawdown was caused by 15 losing trades in a row. What do you mean now when you say, “Assume you have 15 trades in a row that have made money”? 我以為您說我們要假設大幅縮水是由於連續 15 次虧損交易造成的。你現在說 「假設你有 15 次連續賺錢的交易 」是什麼意思？
POP: POP：
Frame of mind is what I am changing for you by asking you to make an assumption that you have 15 winners in a row. The reason I am asking you to do this is because you will be more careful if you have had 15 winners in a row. If you assume you had 15 losers in a row, you will be sort of careless in your thinking by expecting that, surely, you won’t have many more losers in a row. 我要求您做一個假設：您已經連續贏了 15 次。我要求您這樣做的原因是，如果您連續贏了 15 次，您會更加小心。如果您假設您連續有 15 次輸家，您的想法就會有點粗心大意，以為您肯定不會連續有更多的輸家。
Your frame of mind with 15 winners in a row will put you on the edge of caution. I want you to be on the edge of caution. Or we could call it being alert to quick market changes. You can no longer afford to make a bad trade, and now that puts you at a disadvantage. 您連贏 15 場的心態會讓您處於謹慎的邊緣。我希望您保持謹慎。或者我們可以稱之為對市場的快速變化保持警覺。您再也無法承受糟糕的交易，而現在這讓您處於劣勢。
There are many more chapters, but they are not for me. There is discussion of a Rule 3 , which I found less interesting. It talks about volume and liquidity. You can find the rule discussed on page 79 in the original book. 還有很多章節，但不適合我。書中討論了規則 3，我覺得不太有趣。它談到交易量和流動性。您可以在原書的第 79 頁找到討論的規則。
There was one topic which was discussed vaguely, but I will include it. It has to do with taking profits. 有一個議題討論得很模糊，但我還是要把它包括進去。它與獲利有關。
Rule 1 was concerned with protecting your account. 規則 1 關注的是保護您的帳戶。
Rule 2 was concerned with making sure you make more on your winning trades than you lose on your losing trades. 規則 2 關注的是確保您在贏得的交易中賺到的錢多於您在虧損的交易中輸掉的錢。
I feel something is missing. How do you take profits? 我覺得少了些什麼。您如何獲取利潤？
TAKING PROFIT 獲取利潤
POP: My trade programs allow me to take profits after three adds upon a third wave of movement. The third wave usually is the strongest, and that is where I get out of the elevator on the 14th floor rather than ride to the 18th floor if it seems to move rather fast. POP：我的交易程式允許我在第三波移動後三次加碼後獲利。第三浪通常是最強的，如果看起來移動得很快，我就會在 14 樓從電梯出來，而不是坐電梯到 18 樓。
I know it is going to stop eventually. The only question in traders’ minds, I think, is do we get out at the 14th floor on the way up or the way down. 我知道它最終會停止。我認為，交易員心中唯一的問題是，我們是在上升途中還是下降途中的 14 樓離場。
In the following segment ALS and POP are discussing the element of intuition and the use of stop losses. 在下面的環節中，ALS 和 POP 將討論直覺和止損的使用。
ALS: ALS：
I’ve known some people who know it all! 我認識一些人，他們什麼都知道！
POP: POP：
They don’t trade long, do they? Having all the answers is still an incomplete process in trading. Often in trading we know the logical answer but don’t know the intuition answer. There are situations in trading when we don’t want to take the logical answer but the intuition answer. To know which answer to take is the most difficult decision for most traders. 他們的交易時間不長，不是嗎？在交易中，擁有所有的答案仍然是一個不完整的過程。在交易中，我們常常知道邏輯的答案，卻不知道直覺的答案。在交易中，有些情況下我們不想採用邏輯答案，而是採用直覺答案。對大多數交易者來說，知道該選擇哪個答案是最困難的決定。
I believe at least 90%90 \% of the traders lose money and that close to 80%80 \% of traders are logical in their trading and not intuitive. What do you now see about trading? Wouldn’t you now look more at the intuition side of trading and do more research on intuition? 我相信至少 90%90 \% 的交易者會虧損，而且接近 80%80 \% 的交易者在交易中是合乎邏輯的，而不是直覺的。您現在怎麼看交易？你現在不會更多地看交易的直覺方面，並對直覺做更多的研究嗎？
Do you remember that many times I say “second nature?” What I mean is intuition when I say that. Intuition can come from known logical reasoning but with the emotional part removed. It is a feeling we have. Sometimes we can’t explain the feeling with reasoning or a logical plan. 你還記得我說過很多次 「第二本性 」嗎？我這麼說是指直覺。直覺可以來自已知的邏輯推理，但去除了感性的部分。它是我們的一種感覺。有時候我們無法用推理或邏輯計劃來解釋這種感覺。
You don’t want to chase the market, but you don’t want to miss it either. So your two plans cover all the bases with your input of market characteristics. If each day the market tends to give you a range of, say, 15 points, then you surely must be cautious when the market is already up 15 ticks. But only be cautious for a short period of time. 您不想追逐市場，但也不想錯過市場。因此，您的兩個計劃都涵蓋了您輸入的市場特性的所有基礎。如果每天市場傾向於給您一個範圍，例如 15 點，那麼當市場已經漲了 15 點時，您當然必須謹慎。但只能在短時間內謹慎。
Don’t miss the move and use your “at the market” plan after a period of time. Sort of like a stop and I must say the best use of stops I know. 不要錯過移動，並在一段時間後使用您的 「在市場 」計劃。有點像是止損，我必須說是我所知道的止損的最佳用法。
POP: POP：
I don’t know if you can remember my remark about not being able to carry a reputation. My reason for that feeling is that I know what has happened in the past is no guarantee of the future. I also know I change my mind more often than the experts. 我不知道您是否還記得我說過的一句話，就是不能背負名聲。我之所以有這種感覺，是因為我知道過去發生的事並不能保證未來。我也知道我比專家們更常改變想法。
It is extremely difficult for expert traders to convey with confidence to their customers that they know what they are doing if they change their minds often. I like the luxury of changing my mind. They don’t have that luxury. 如果交易專家經常改變主意，就很難自信地向客戶傳達他們知道自己在做什麼的信息。我喜歡隨時改變主意。他們沒有這種奢侈。
I remember one day when I got at least six reversal signals in one day. How do you think a trader you are trying to help would understand your changing direction every time they saw you in a day? 我記得有一天，我在一天內至少收到六個反轉信號。您認為您試圖幫助的交易者會如何理解您在一天內每次看到您都在改變方向？
That is another reason I say it is not an impossible road but a lonely one. It is out of necessity. You must have the courage to do what is correct at all times. A good advisor is perhaps good at advice. There is conflict between giving advice and also trading. I 這也是我說這不是一條不可能的路，而是一條孤獨的路的另一個原因。這是出於必要。在任何時候，您都必須有勇氣去做正確的事。一個好的顧問或許擅長提供建議。提供建議與交易之間存在衝突。I
do not accept conflict. Some can but not me. Most new traders are better off without the conflict of advice. 不接受衝突。有些人可以，但我不行。大多數新交易者最好不要接受有衝突的建議。
I could tell you what I am doing every trade, and you would not trade the same way. You could never be at my point in time when I execute my trades. We must always have the latitude of changing our positions based on our systems. My rules allow this thought for doing the correct trading. 我可以告訴你我每次交易都在做什麼，但你不會以同樣的方式進行交易。當我執行交易時，你永遠無法站在我的時間點。我們必須始終擁有根據我們的系統改變倉位的空間。我的規則允許這樣的想法來做正確的交易。
I certainly don’t think the forum participants were wrong in their thinking but only having fun with the way the markets tend to act on their positions at times. They have really hit the nail on the head, and it just takes some understanding as to why it seems to be that the locals are gunning for the stops. 我當然不認為論壇參與者的想法是錯誤的，他們只是對市場有時會對他們的倉位採取的行動感到有趣。他們真的是一針見血，只需要瞭解一下為什麼當地人似乎都在搶止損。
Locals are good at taking the smallest loss possible and going with the flow. It is an advantage over the public traders. 當地人擅長承受最小的損失，並隨波逐流。這是相較於大眾交易者的優勢。
To understand why markets act as a system that tends to prove the most people wrong in any one day is a good start in correcting bad entries when trading. Traders are correct in thinking that the stops will get them out, and then the market will just turn around and go the way they had thought prior to being stopped out. 要瞭解為什麼市場會像一個系統一樣，在任何一天中往往會證明最多的人是錯的，這是在交易時糾正錯誤入市的好開始。交易者認為止損可以讓他們出局，然後市場就會掉頭向他們在被止損前所想的方向發展，這種想法是正確的。
The fact that it happens is reason enough to devise your trading plan accordingly. This idea is especially useful upon planning entries. I never really liked stops but trading 事實上，這種情況的發生足以讓您制定相應的交易計劃。這個想法在規劃入市時特別有用。我從來不喜歡止損，但是交易
off-floor creates a problem for the public because they certainly need protection from being hurt from extreme moves. 這對公眾來說是個問題，因為他們當然需要保護，以免因極端動作而受傷。
Stops do not protect well in choppy markets. Trading plans can be improved by knowing how stops work and what happens far too often. 在波動的市場中，止損不能提供很好的保護。透過瞭解止損的作用以及經常發生的情況，可以改善交易計劃。
We proceed with a trading plan after we feel our behavior and reaction to market conditions is in our total control. As long as we are prepared for any outcome and adapt our behavior to all possibilities, we can start to follow a good system. 當我們覺得自己的行為和對市場狀況的反應完全在我們的掌控之後，我們才會開始進行交易計劃。只要我們為任何結果做好準備，並根據所有可能性調整我們的行為，我們就可以開始遵循一個良好的系統。
CREDITS 鳴謝
The credit for this book goes to Arthur Simpson. I do not know if he is around anymore. I have tried to contact him via email and via Facebook. I have had no luck. 這本書的作者是 Arthur Simpson。我不知道他是否還在。我曾經嘗試通過電子郵件和 Facebook 聯繫他。但都不成功。
It is rumoured the Phantom is George Lane, but I am only passing on hearsay. I do not know. 據說 Phantom 是 George Lane，但我只是道聽途說。我不知道。
What I do know is that trading is a losing game for many people. Well, it is a losing game for most people. There is nothing to be ashamed of, if you haven’t made money from trading yet. 我所知道的是，對許多人而言，交易是一種失敗的遊戲。對大多數人來說，這是一個虧本的遊戲。如果您還沒有從交易中賺到錢，也沒有什麼好羞愧的。
This book makes the argument that to be successful we need to turn some basic human qualities, such as hope and fear, on its head. 這本書提出的論點是：要想成功，我們需要顛覆一些人類的基本特質，例如希望和恐懼。
Good luck on your trading journey 祝您交易順利
Tom Hougaard