What We Got Right (and Wrong) in Our Predictions for 2024
我们在 2024 年的预测中正确（和错误）之处

One evergreen prediction applies every year: Our world may be obsessed with creating the future, but as always, the precise dimensions of tomorrow are never exactly what anyone expects.
每年都有一个永恒的预测适用：我们的世界可能痴迷于创造未来，但和往常一样，明天的确切维度从来不是任何人所预期的。

What we predicted: Microsoft and Amazon will introduce AI hardware devices.
我们预测：微软和亚马逊将推出人工智能硬件设备。

What happened: Unfortunately, 2024 didn’t turn out to be much of a renaissance for new AI-powered devices. Sam Altman and Jony Ive haven’t yet shown the world whatever the gadget is they’re working on, and Humane’s AI pin got blistering reviews. Sure, Amazon released new Echo devices, but those had only incremental improvements, possibly because a rebooted version of Alexa is reportedly running behind schedule. Technically, Microsoft and its partners did release a new AI-powered category of devices with the Copilot+ PC category of Windows computers. But the wait for a truly new generation of AI gadgets continues.
发生了什么：不幸的是，2024 年并没有成为新一代人工智能设备的复兴年。萨姆·阿尔特曼和乔尼·艾夫尚未向世界展示他们正在研发的任何小工具，而 Humane 的 AI 别针得到了严厉的评价。当然，亚马逊发布了新的 Echo 设备，但这些设备仅有增量改进，可能是因为重启版的 Alexa 据说进度滞后。从技术上讲，微软及其合作伙伴确实发布了一种新的 AI 驱动设备类别，即 Copilot+ PC 类别的 Windows 电脑。但对真正新一代 AI 小工具的期待仍在继续。

Grade: D  等级：D

What we predicted: Amazon grocery chief Tony Hoggett will leave.
我们预测：亚马逊食品部门负责人托尼·霍格特将离职。

What happened: Hoggett resigned from Amazon in November to join Marc Lore’s food-delivery company Wonder as chief operating officer. As we explained a year ago, Hoggett’s job turned out to be less exciting than probably what he was expecting. During his less than three years at Amazon, the company was shutting stores and cutting costs—surely not the environment Hoggett was expecting when he joined. In contrast, Wonder is rapidly expanding. In fact, it acquired Grubhub just a couple of weeks after Hoggett’s first day.
发生了什么：霍格特于 11 月辞去了亚马逊的职务，加入马克·洛尔的食品配送公司 Wonder 担任首席运营官。正如我们一年前所解释的，霍格特的工作结果证明比他预期的要乏味。在他不到三年的亚马逊任期内，公司关闭了门店并削减成本——这显然不是霍格特加入时所期待的环境。相比之下，Wonder 正在迅速扩张。事实上，它在霍格特第一天上班后的几周内收购了 Grubhub。

Grade: A  等级：A

What we predicted: Netflix will make a big acquisition in entertainment or gaming.
我们预测：Netflix 将在娱乐或游戏领域进行大规模收购。

What happened: Netflix did not make any big acquisitions. The company continues to invest in games, including by developing titles based on popular Netflix shows, but its big focus in 2024 was signing exclusive live programming deals, such as the one to stream World Wrestling Entertainment’s Raw starting in early January. Netflix appears to be concentrating its growth efforts on programming that helps bring in advertising rather than on acquisitions.
发生了什么：Netflix 没有进行任何重大收购。该公司继续投资于游戏，包括开发基于热门 Netflix 节目的游戏，但其在 2024 年的主要重点是签署独家直播节目协议，例如从 1 月初开始播放世界摔跤娱乐的《Raw》。Netflix 似乎将其增长努力集中在能够带来广告收入的节目上，而不是收购。

Grade: F  等级：F

What we predicted: Netflix will buy an ad-tech company.
我们预测：Netflix 将收购一家广告技术公司。

What happened: Netflix did not make such an acquisition. As we noted, Netflix has a long history of controlling all aspects of its business rather than relying on other companies. But instead of making an acquisition, Netflix chose to build its own ad-serving platform, which it has been testing in Canada and plans to roll out to other markets next year. Netflix also reworked its deal with Microsoft’s Xandr, which initially provided the technology to buy ads on Netflix. Now, instead of only working with Xandr, Netflix began working with others including Google, The Trade Desk and Magnite.
发生了什么：Netflix 并没有进行这样的收购。正如我们所指出的，Netflix 在控制其业务的各个方面方面有着悠久的历史，而不是依赖其他公司。但 Netflix 选择建立自己的广告投放平台，而不是进行收购，该平台已在加拿大进行测试，并计划明年在其他市场推出。Netflix 还重新调整了与微软的 Xandr 的合作协议，Xandr 最初提供了在 Netflix 上购买广告的技术。现在，Netflix 不仅与 Xandr 合作，还开始与包括谷歌、The Trade Desk 和 Magnite 在内的其他公司合作。

Grade: F  等级：F

What we predicted: Shein or Temu will buy Wayfair.
我们预测：Shein 或 Temu 将收购 Wayfair。

What happened: We got this one wrong—neither firm bought Wayfair. Instead, both Shein and Temu spent most of 2024 dealing with their own challenges rather than looking outward for deals. If Shein is finally able to go public in 2025, it could have more cash on hand to put behind an acquisition, although increased regulatory scrutiny in both the U.S. and the U.K., where Shein is trying to list its shares, could make M&A challenging. For its part, Wayfair’s sales have remained uneven over the past year, so the company could make more sense as an acquisition target for private equity or another e-commerce company.
发生了什么：我们错了——这两家公司都没有收购 Wayfair。相反，Shein 和 Temu 在 2024 年大部分时间都在处理自己的挑战，而不是向外寻求交易。如果 Shein 能够在 2025 年成功上市，它可能会有更多现金用于收购，尽管在美国和英国的监管审查加剧，Shein 正试图在这些地方上市，这可能会使并购变得具有挑战性。就 Wayfair 而言，过去一年其销售一直不稳定，因此该公司可能更适合作为私募股权或其他电子商务公司的收购目标。

Grade: F  等级：F

What we predicted: “Buy now, pay later” firms will see rising defaults.
我们预测：“先买后付”公司将面临日益增加的违约。

What happened: Consumers did have a tougher time paying back installment loans. At Affirm, for example, the share of loans more than 30 days past due rose to 2.8% at the end of September, compared with 2.4% at the end of 2023.
发生了什么：消费者在偿还分期贷款方面确实面临更大的困难。例如，在 Affirm，逾期超过 30 天的贷款比例在 9 月底上升至 2.8%，而 2023 年底为 2.4%。

But the lenders have held up fine and relief is already in sight—the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September, taking pressure off consumers and making it cheaper for buy now, pay later firms to fund their loans. Affirm expects to post its first operating profit as a public company by mid-2025, while rival Klarna filed paperwork to go public in November after two straight profitable quarters.
但贷款机构表现良好，救助已经在望——美联储在九月份开始降息，减轻了消费者的压力，并使得“先买后付”公司融资贷款的成本降低。Affirm 预计到 2025 年中期将首次作为上市公司实现运营盈利，而竞争对手 Klarna 在连续两个季度盈利后于 11 月提交了上市申请。

Grade: B+  等级：B+

Ann Gehan, Meredith Mazilli, Sahil Patel, Martin Peers, Theo Wayt and Nick Wingfield contributed to this piece.
安·盖汉、梅雷迪思·马齐利、萨希尔·帕特尔、马丁·皮尔斯、西奥·韦特和尼克·温菲尔德为本文做出了贡献。