Good morning. QQQs flattish, yields ticking up 2-3bps across the curve and 10 year testing 4.3%; China +1.6% as reports of more stimulus swirl. BTC +2.6% gaining momentum and over $71k for first time since June. Big night of earnings ahead with AMD, GOOGL, SNAP, RDDT, and V on the docket among others.
早上好。QQQ 平坦，收益率在曲线上上升了 2-3 个基点，10 年期测试 4.3%；中国上涨 1.6%，更多刺激措施的报告不断涌现。BTC 上涨 2.6%，动能增强，自 6 月以来首次突破$71k。今晚将有大量财报发布， AMD, GOOGL, SNAP, RDDT, 和 V 等在列。
We’ll hit up earnings recaps first (PYPL, GLW, CHKP, CDNS, FFIV) then dive into some research/news/3p from this morning. Let’s get to it.
我们将首先回顾财报（PYPL, GLW, CHKP, CDNS, FFIV），然后深入研究今天早上的一些研究/新闻/第三方信息。开始吧。
PYPL -3%: Looks mixed with slight rev miss, better EPS (1.20 vs bogeys of 1.10); transaction margin $ and branded TPV better, but subdued Q4 guide and lack of go-forward narrative has stock selling off
PYPL -3%：看起来混合，略微的收入未达预期，EPS 更好（1.20 对比预期的 1.10）；交易利润$和品牌 TPV 表现更好，但 Q4 指导预期疲软且缺乏前进故事，导致股价下跌。
Transaction margin $ beat at 8% y/y vs 4% y/y on 50bps TPV beat (branded held at 6% vs expects at 5%).
交易利润率同比增长 8%，超出预期的 4%，主要得益于 50 个基点的 TPV 超出预期（品牌保持在 6%，而预期为 5%）。
TPV +9% in line with street
TPV +9% 符合市场预期
TE rate dropped -2bps y/y (unbranded TPV slowed by 8ppt) and lower txn/credit losses.
TE 利率同比下降 2 个基点（非品牌 TPV 放缓 8 个百分点）且交易/信用损失较低。
EPS beat handedly 1.20 vs buyside expects of 1.10
每股收益轻松超过 1.20，而买方预期为 1.10
Investors not as excited about the Q4 guide:
投资者对第四季度指引没有那么兴奋：
FY TM$ raised to MSD growth but even assuming 6% implies Q4 slows to 400bps to 3.5% y/y.
FY TM$提振至 MSD 增长，但即便假设为 6%，也意味着第四季度放缓到 400 个基点，达到 3.5%的同比增长。
Q4 TPV guide to LSD vs street at 5.5% on slower Braintree TPV and Q4 EPS slightly below.
Q4 TPV 指南：在较慢的 Braintree TPV 下，LSD 与街道相比为 5.5%，Q4 每股收益略低。
FY EPS raised to high teens vs low to mid teens prior.
FY 每股收益上调至高十几，与之前的低十几至中十几相比。
Bulls will say print was fine and mgmt typically guides conservative and new initiatives will begin to ramp up at some point in 2025 while stock still only trading at 15x ‘26 P/E.
牛市人士将表示印刷效果良好，管理层通常会给予保守的指导，而新的举措将在 2025 年的某个时候开始逐步推进，而股票的交易仍仅为 26 年市盈率的 15 倍。
Bears will extrapolate weaker Q4 guide to 2025. In our preview we wrote why the go-forward narrative wasn’t great and likely why stock not being defended here as we head into next year:
空头将较弱的第四季度指引推断至 2025 年。在我们的预览中，我们写了为什么前进的叙述不是很好，以及为什么股票在进入明年时不被防守：
As investors look forward TPV growth will likely come under more scrutiny while major ‘24 drivers won’t recur (Braintree pricing, float income flipping to a headwind, lower y/y transaction losses).
随着投资者的关注，TPV 的增长可能会受到更多审查，而主要的 2024 年驱动因素不会重现（Braintree 定价、浮动收入转为逆风、同比交易损失下降）。
New product announcements (Adyen, Fastlane, etc.) won’t likely contribute much until 2H’2025 at the earliest.
新品发布（Adyen、Fastlane 等）在 2025 年下半年之前可能不会带来太多贡献。
Overall, we think quarter was ok and guide is conservative, but still think stock unexciting for us right now given lack of go-forward catalysts/narrative (although we do get an investor day in Feb 2025).
总体而言，我们认为本季度还不错，指导较为保守，但由于缺乏未来催化剂/叙事，我们认为股票目前对我们来说缺乏吸引力（尽管我们确实在 2025 年 2 月有一个投资者日）。
Q3 Results: Q3 业绩：
- ADJ EPS $1.20 vs. $0.98 y/y, EST $1.07
- 每股收益 $1.20 对比去年 $0.98，预估 $1.07
- Total payment volume $422.64B, +9% y/y, EST $421.64B
- 总支付金额 4226.4 亿美元，同比增长 9%，预估 4216.4 亿美元
- Transaction margin dollars $3.65B
- 交易利润美元 $3.65B
- Payment transactions 6.63B, +5.7% y/y, EST 6.83B
- 支付交易 66.3 亿，同比增长 5.7%，预期 68.3 亿
- Active customer accounts 432M, +0.9% y/y, EST 429.42M
- 活跃客户账户 4.32 亿，同比增长 0.9%，预估 4.2942 亿
- Net revenue $7.85B, +5.8% y/y, EST $7.88B
净收入 78.5 亿美元，同比增长 5.8%，预计 78.8 亿美元
- Transaction revenue $7.07B, +6.2% y/y, EST $7.13B
- 交易收入 70.7 亿美元，同比增长 6.2%，预估 71.3 亿美元
- Other value added services revenue $780M, +2.1% y/y, EST $746.9M
其他增值服务收入为 7.8 亿美元，同比增长 2.1%，预计为 7.469 亿美元。
- US net revenue $4.52B, +6.1% y/y, EST $4.43B
美国净收入为 45.2 亿美元，同比增长 6.1%，预计为 44.3 亿美元。
- International net revenue $3.33B, +5.3% y/y, EST $3.44B
国际净收入 33.3 亿美元，同比增长 5.3%，预估 34.4 亿美元
- ADJ operating income $1.48B, EST $1.38B
- ADJ 运营收入 14.8 亿美元，预估 13.8 亿美元
- ADJ operating margin 18.8% vs. 16.9% y/y, EST 18.6%
- 调整后营业利润率 18.8% vs. 16.9% 同比，预计 18.6%
GLW +8%: Results look good as co upped Q4 guide
GLW +8%：结果看起来不错，因为公司提高了第四季度指引
GLW also outlined Display expectations for next year, which is mostly in line with the Street but better than feared given concerns around Yen (The company noted that Display net income is expected to be $900-950m for CY25). All segments beat with Optical driving biggest upside with 55% y/y growth in enterprise portion after GLW said would only be >40% y/y at their investor event in Sept
GLW 还概述了明年的显示业务预期，这与市场预期大致一致，但考虑到对日元的担忧，表现好于预期（公司表示，显示业务的净收入预计为 9 亿到 9.5 亿美元，截止到 2025 年）。所有业务线均超出预期，光学驱动部门在企业部分增长最大，同比增长 55%，而 GLW 在 9 月的投资者活动中表示，预计仅增长超过 40%。
Q4 Guide: Q4 指南：
EPS: 53-57c vs street at 52c
每股收益: 53-57 美分 vs 市场预期 52 美分
Revenue: $3.75B vs street at $3.65B
收入： $37.5 亿，与市场预期$36.5 亿相比
Q3 Results Q3 业绩
- Core EPS $0.54 vs. $0.45 y/y, EST $0.52
- 核心每股收益 $0.54 对比去年 $0.45，预计 $0.52
- Core sales $3.73B, +7.9% y/y, EST $3.71B
核心销售额 37.3 亿美元，同比增长 7.9%，预期为 37.1 亿美元
- Display Technologies net sales $1.02B, +4.4% y/y, EST $1B
- 显示技术净销售额 10.2 亿美元，同比增长 4.4%，预估 10 亿美元
- Optical Communications net sales $1.25B, +36% y/y, EST $1.17B
光通信净销售额为 12.5 亿美元，同比增长 36%，预计为 11.7 亿美元。
- Specialty Materials net sales $548M, -2.7% y/y, EST $559.2M
专业材料净销售额为 5.48 亿美元，同比下降 2.7%，预估为 5.592 亿美元
- Environmental Technologies net sales $382M, -15% y/y, EST $417.6M
- 环境技术净销售额为 3.82 亿美元，同比下降 15%，预估为 4.176 亿美元
- Life Sciences net sales $244M, +6.1% y/y, EST $248M
- 生命科学净销售额为 2.44 亿美元，同比增长 6.1%，预计为 2.48 亿美元
- All Other net sales $298M, -8.9% y/y, EST $333.2M
- 其他净销售额 $2.98 亿，年同比下降 8.9%，预估 $3.332 亿
From the PR: 来自公关：
Our outperformance was led by Optical Communications, with 36% year-over-year sales growth – and 55% sales growth in the Enterprise portion of the segment, driven by continued strong adoption of our new optical connectivity products for generative AI. We also demonstrated progress on the powerful incremental profit and cash flow embedded in our ‘Springboard’ plan – we saw significant operating margin expansion and generated $553 million of adjusted free cash flow.”
我们的业绩超出预期，主要得益于光通信部门，销售额同比增长 36%——企业部分销售额增长 55%，这得益于我们新型光连接产品在生成性 AI 领域的持续强劲采用。我们在“跳板”计划中也展示了强劲的增量利润和现金流的进展——我们实现了显著的营业利润率扩张，生成了 5.53 亿美元的经调整自由现金流。
CHKP -7%: Weaker Q3 as billings miss and sub rev growth decels
CHKP -7%：第三季度表现疲软，账单未达预期，订阅收入增长放缓
Focus mainly on the billings miss given more positive sentiment on CHKP going into the print. Billings came in at 6% vs street at 8% expects closer to high single digits/10%, despite comp being 4 ppts easier
主要关注账单缺失，因为在发布之前对 CHKP 的情绪更加积极。账单达到了 6%，而市场预期为 8%，预计接近高个位数/10%，尽管基数低了 4 个百分点。
ST billings only 5% vs street at 9% and, and a decel from 7% despite comp being 6 ppts easier.
ST 账单仅为 5%，而街头预期为 9%，且虽然比较基期相对容易 6 个百分点，但仍然从 7%减速。
Total Revs only inline with street
总收入仅与街道一致
Sub revs missed at 11.5% vs street at 12.5% and a decel from 14% last q and 15% in Q1
次季度收入增长率为 11.5%，低于市场预期的 12.5%，且较上个季度的 14%和第一季度的 15%有所下降。
The one bright spot is product growth at 4% vs street at 2%
一个亮点是产品增长为 4%，而市场预期为 2%
This stock had been a bit of a crowded long going into the print given CHKP is in the middle of a product cycle and checks had been good going in, so this will put a dent in bull’s thesis.
这只股票在公布前有点拥挤的多头，因为 CHKP 正处于产品周期中，并且事先的检查情况良好，因此这将对多头的论点造成影响。
CDNS +6% as Rev beat and guide better than feared
CDNS +6%，因收入超出预期且指引优于预期
Investor sentiment was generally cautious heading into the print (stock dn 23% from highs) so the better Q3 being looked at favorable as Revs beat by 3% and EPS came in at 1.64 vs street at 1.45 on better OPMs (45% vs street at 41.6%).
投资者情绪普遍谨慎，进入财报发布阶段（股票从高点下跌 23%），因此对第三季度的表现持乐观态度，营收超出预期 3%，每股收益为 1.64，超出市场预期的 1.45，运营利润率也表现良好（45%对比市场预期的 41.6%）。
CDNS maintained FY24 revenue guidance at midpoint implying confidence in hw acceleration and China to get better. This somewhat de-risks Q4 in that guidance now requires 26% growth vs 29% before. EPS FY24 guide goes up by 3c. Mgmt expects dd growth in FY24 and GenAI continuing to be main driving force of growth. Backlog declined q/q but CFO said Q4’24 hw pipeline strongest Q4 during his tenure at the company.
CDNS 维持 FY24 收入指引在中点，暗示对硬件加速和中国改善的信心。这在一定程度上降低了 Q4 的风险，因为该指引现在要求 26%的增长，而之前为 29%。FY24 的每股收益指引上调 3 美分。管理层预计 FY24 会有双倍增长，并认为生成 AI 将继续是增长的主要推动力。虽然 backlog 环比下降，但 CFO 表示在他任职期间，Q4'24 的硬件管道是最强的 Q4。
Other key pts: SD&A saw >40% y/y rev growth helped by auto and aerospace while IP seg grew >50% y/y/Verification +20% y/y helping offset weaker trends in custom and digital.
其他关键点：SD&A 由于汽车和航空航天的帮助，年同比收入增长超过 40%，而 IP 部门年同比增长超过 50%/验证年同比增长 20%，帮助抵消了定制和数字领域的疲软趋势。
Bulls will say this print supports view that 2024 exit growth sustainable in 2025 and that Q4 guide is de-risked as 1) hw product cycle should last through ‘25; 2) IP is getting better and 3) China weakness in ‘24 sets up an easy comp for next year
牛市将表示这份报告支持 2024 年退出增长在 2025 年可持续的观点，并且第四季度的指引已经降低风险，因为 1) 硬件产品周期应该持续到 2025 年；2) 知识产权正在改善；3) 2024 年中国的疲软为明年设定了一个简单的比较基准
Q3 Results: Q3 业绩：
- ADJ EPS $1.64 vs. $1.26 y/y, EST $1.45
- 调整后每股收益 $1.64 比去年同期 $1.26，预估 $1.45
- Revenue $1.22B, +19% y/y, EST $1.18B
- 收入 12.2 亿美元，同比增长 19%，预估 11.8 亿美元
- Product and maintenance revenue $1.10B, +14% y/y, EST $1.1B
- 产品和维护收入 $11 亿美元，同比增长 14%，预期 $11 亿美元
- Services revenue $115.1M vs. $57.3M y/y, EST $85.8M
服务收入 $115.1M 对比去年 $57.3M，预期 $85.8M
- ADJ operating margin 45% vs. 41% y/y, EST 41.5%
- ADJOperating margin 45% vs. 41%同比，预估 41.5%
- ADJ net income $450.2M, +31% y/y, EST $397.5M
调整后的净收入为 4.502 亿美元，同比增加 31%，预计为 3.975 亿美元。
FY 2024 Revenue GUIDE $4.61bn - $4.65bn vs. St est $4.628bn (Previous guidance $4.60-$4.66bn)
2024 财年收入指南 46.1 亿美元 - 46.5 亿美元，市场预估为 46.28 亿美元（之前的指导为 46.0-46.6 亿美元）
FY2024 Non GAAP Op Mgn GUIDE 42% to 43% vs Street est. 42.5% (Previous guide 41.7%-43.3%)
2024 财年非公认会计原则运营利润率指南 42%到 43%，与华尔街预估的 42.5%相比（之前的指导为 41.7%-43.3%）
FY 2024 EPS GUIDE $5.87-$5.93 vs.street est. $5.89 (Previous guidance $5.77-$5.97)
2024 财年每股收益指南 $5.87-$5.93 对比街头估计 $5.89（之前的指导 $5.77-$5.97）
FFIV: Better than Expected Q4 and FY25 reacceleration driven by software renewals
FFIV：第四季度和 2025 财年的业绩超出预期，软件续订推动了重新加速
Revs beat by 2% and product revs beat by 6.6%, up 10% y/y driven by strong sw growth +19% y/y and improving systems demand. Co guided to reaccelerating rev growth in FY25 up 4-5% weighted toward FY25 driven by sw growth given FFIV has good visibility thanks to renewal basee containing the FY19 and FY22 cohorts (sw expected to grow HSD and Systems MSD)
收入增长超过 2%，产品收入增长超过 6.6%，同比增长 10%，主要受到软件增长 19%和系统需求改善的驱动。公司指导 FY25 重新加速收入增长，预计增长 4-5%，重点在 FY25，主要受到软件增长的推动，因为 FFIV 由于包含 FY19 和 FY22 组的续订基础，具有良好的可见性（预计软件增长为中高个位数，系统增长为中个位数）。
Key takeaways from the call: 1) Software growth outlook: Management expects acceleration in H2'25 driven by strong renewal rates, Healthy expansion activity, Robust new business pipeline 2) Systems business recovery: Projecting mid-single-digit growth for FY25, gaining market share and benefiting from refresh cycle momentum; 3) AI opportunity: Seeing demand across both hardware and software offerings, several early customer wins secured. No AI upside included in FY25 guidance 4) Federal business stability: No disruption from Carahsoft relationship (10% of Q4FY23 revenue) as U.S. government bookings meeting expectations
通话的关键要点：1）软件增长前景：管理层预计 2025 下半年将加速，得益于强劲的续订率、健康的扩展活动和稳健的新业务管道；2）系统业务复苏：预计 2025 财年将实现中个位数增长，增加市场份额并受益于更新周期的势头；3）人工智能机会：在硬件和软件产品中看到需求，已经获得几项早期客户胜利。2025 财年的指导中未包含人工智能的上行潜力；4）联邦业务稳定：由于美国政府订单符合预期，与 Carahsoft 的关系没有造成干扰（占 2023 财年第四季度收入的 10%）
Bulls will say the above points all sound good, especially AI opportunity and reacceleration in total revs driven by high margin/high visibility sw. Stock still only 15x fwd P/E.
多头会说以上几点听起来都很好，尤其是人工智能机会和由于高利润/高可见度软件驱动的总收入重新加速。股票的前瞻市盈率仍然只有 15 倍。
Bears will say certain growth areas not showing growth needed for a re-rating as security revs flat y/y and ARR of core SaaS and managed serves was up only ~5%. Seems like bulls have it for now.
熊市人士将某些增长领域称为未显示出重新评级所需的增长，因为安全收入同比持平，而核心 SaaS 和管理服务的年经常性收入仅增长了约 5%。目前看来，多头占据优势。
GUIDANCE: Q1 指导：第一季度
- Guides revenue $705M to $725M, EST $703.1M
- 指导收入为 7.05 亿至 7.25 亿美元，预计 703.1 百万美元
- Guides ADJ EPS $3.29 to $3.41, EST $3.37
- 指导调整每股收益为 $3.29 至 $3.41，预计 $3.37
RESULTS: Q4 结果：第四季度
- Net revenue $746.7M, +5.6% y/y, EST $730.7M
净收入 7.467 亿美元，同比增加 5.6%，预期 7.307 亿美元
- Net service revenue $388.4M, +1.8% y/y, EST $393.9M
净服务收入 3.884 亿美元，同比增长 1.8%，预期 3.939 亿美元
- Net product revenues $358.3M, +10% y/y, EST $337.3M
- 净产品收入 3.583 亿美元，同比增长 10%，预期 3.373 亿美元
- ADJ EPS $3.67 vs. $3.50 y/y, EST $3.46
- 调整后每股收益 $3.67 对比去年的 $3.50，预估 $3.46
- ADJ net income $217M, +3.8% y/y, EST $203.7M
- 经调整净收入 2.17 亿美元，同比增长 3.8%，预估为 2.037 亿美元
Research/News 研究/新闻
3P Roundup 3P 汇总
UBER: Hearing 3p saying Q4 tracking slight above street
优步: 听到 3p 说 Q4 的跟踪稍高于市场预期
BKNG: Hearing M-sci positive on Q4 volumes
BKNG: 对 Q4 成交量持乐观态度的听证会
AMZN: Hearing slight downtick at Yip in weekly retail data
AMZN: 在每周零售数据中听到 Yip 略微下降
CVNA: Hearing 3p saying units accel’d to 70% in latest week
CVNA: 听到 3p 说最新一周单位加速到了 70%
TTD: New Street downgrades TTD to Sell on more harder post-election comps as we head into 2025
TTD：新街将 TTD 评级下调为卖出，因在 2025 年即将到来之际，选后比较将更加困难
New Street understands the rally in TTD as smaller walled gardens continue giving TTD more access to their premium inventory and the company's top competitor, GOOGL’s DV 360, continues to give share according to all of the firm's recent industry conversations. New Street continues to believe TTD is best-in-class for vision, strategy and execution. However, New Street says the key challenge is 2025 as street estimates imply implies about 30% core spend growth excluding political, up from 19% in 2024. NS believes that core spend growth can accelerate in 2025, just not to the level that consensus implies, arguing that 2025 consensus is not properly reflecting the difficult comps that will follow the U.S. election.
新街认为 TTD 的上涨是因为越来越多的封闭花园为 TTD 提供了更多的优质库存，而该公司的主要竞争对手 GOOGL 的 DV 360 也在根据所有近期的行业对话持续分配份额。新街继续认为 TTD 在愿景、战略和执行方面是行业最佳。然而，新街表示，2025 年是关键挑战，因为市场预期暗示核心支出增长约 30%，不包括政治支出，而 2024 年为 19%。新街相信核心支出增长在 2025 年可以加速，但不会达到共识暗示的水平，认为 2025 年的共识没有正确反映出美国选举后将面临的艰难同比。
WFS Initiates TTD (Buy, $150 PT) APP (Buy, $200 PT), U(Hold, $20 PT)
WFS Initiates TTD（买入，目标价 150 美元）APP（买入，目标价 200 美元），U（持有，目标价 20 美元）
On APP, WFS notes they see similarities between APP’s market position in mobile games and Google in programmatic, after purchasing DoubleClick in 2008. As a result, WFS expects APP to continue capturing share and beating revenue estimates in the $34B sector. WFS believes the mobile game user acquisition market is large enough for APP to compound 20-30% software revenue growth through 2027.
在APP中，WFS 指出，他们看到 APP 在移动游戏市场的地位类似于 Google 在程序化广告中的地位，后者于 2008 年收购了 DoubleClick。因此，WFS 预计 APP 将继续赢得市场份额，并超越 340 亿美元行业的收入预期。WFS 相信，移动游戏用户获取市场足够大，使 APP 能够在 2027 年前实现软件收入 20-30%的复合增长。
On TTD, WFS sees multiple factors benefiting the co, particularly AMZN accelerating shift of advertising spend to connected TV, new partnerships ramping and Google distracted with regulatory woes. Wells is looking past the stock's elevated valuatio" in light of positive industry trends and estimates which are above street. Wells also believes introducing ads on Prime Video accelerated connected TV industry growth, benefiting Trade Desk, which goes against what some on the buyside are thihnking.
在 TTD上，WFS 看到多个因素使公司受益，特别是亚马逊加速将广告支出转向网络电视、新合作伙伴关系的增长，以及谷歌因监管问题而分心。富国银行在考虑到行业积极趋势和高于市场预期的估计时，依然看好该股的高估值。富国银行还认为在 Prime Video 上推出广告加速了网络电视行业的增长，这使得 Trade Desk 受益，这与一些买方的想法相悖。
On U, Wells thinks the company's new management has made strides in turning it around, by trimming the portfolio and rectifying the runtime fee issue. However, Wells notes that fixing Unity Ads requires even better execution and sees a lack of compelling r/r.
在U上，Wells 认为公司的新管理层在通过缩减投资组合和整改运行费用问题方面取得了进展。然而，Wells 指出，修复 Unity Ads 需要更好的执行，并且看到缺乏令人信服的回报/风险比。
WMT/AMZN: Walmart slashes Walmart Plus subscription price by half ahead of holidays
WMT/AMZN：沃尔玛在假期前将沃尔玛 Plus 订阅价格砍半
Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab said on Monday it would offer its membership service, Walmart Plus, at a 50% discount ahead of the holiday season, as the retailer attempts to close the gap with rival Amazon.com's (AMZN.O), opens new tab Prime subscription service.
沃尔玛(WMT.N), opens new tab在周一表示，在假日季节之前将以 50%的折扣提供其会员服务沃尔玛 Plus，旨在缩小与竞争对手亚马逊.com(AMZN.O), opens new tab的 Prime 订阅服务之间的差距。As part of these early deals, Walmart is offering a one-year Walmart Plus membership for $49, down from its regular $98, from Monday through Dec. 2.
作为这些早期交易的一部分，沃尔玛从周一到 12 月 2 日提供一年期的沃尔玛 Plus 会员，仅需 49 美元，原价为 98 美元。This move highlights Walmart's efforts to compete with Amazon Prime, which costs $139 per year and has over six times more subscribers. According to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Amazon Prime has 180 million U.S. subscribers, while eMarketer estimates Walmart Plus will reach 32 million by the end of this year.
此举凸显了沃尔玛与亚马逊 Prime 竞争的努力，后者每年费用为 139 美元，订阅用户数量超过六倍。根据消费者情报研究合作伙伴的数据，亚马逊 Prime 在美国拥有 1.8 亿订阅用户，而 eMarketer 预计沃尔玛 Plus 到今年年底将达到 3200 万用户。
AAPL: Citi says Apple Intelligence software release to impact iPhone sales
AAPL：花旗表示，苹果智能软件发布将影响 iPhone 销量
TheFly: Fly: 苍蝇：
Citi believes a prolonged Apple Intelligence software release likely impacts typical iPhone sales seasonality this year. The firm models September and December quarter iPhone sales 2% and 3% below the Street, respectively, on delay of Apple Intelligence software features to spring of next year. That said, Citi still believes in a "strong" 9% year-over-year iPhone 17 unit driven upgrade cycle next year once Apple Intelligence software is fully released. It maintains a Buy rating on the shares with a $255 price target.
花旗银行认为，苹果智能软件的延迟发布可能会影响今年典型的 iPhone 销售季节性。该公司预计，九月和十二月季度的 iPhone 销售量将分别比市场预期低 2%和 3%，原因是苹果智能软件功能推迟到明年春季发布。尽管如此，花旗仍然相信，一旦苹果智能软件全面发布，明年的 iPhone 17 设备推动升级周期将实现 9%的强劲同比增长。它维持对该股的买入评级，目标价为 255 美元。
META: BAML comments on META search engine announcement, saying a sentiment neg for GOOGL
META：BAML 对 META 搜索引擎公告发表评论，表示对 GOOGL 的情绪为负面
BofA's Justin Post comments on The Information's report that Meta is developing a web-scanning search engine to provide conversational responses about news and current events through its Meta AI chatbot. While Meta's AI developments were anticipated, Post suggests the increasing reports of potential search competition create "negative sentiment" around Alphabet and Google search. However, the analyst believes Meta faces significant disadvantages in data collection and web crawling capabilities compared to Google, given Meta AI's currently limited user base. While acknowledging the possibility that some internet traffic could shift away from Google Search (which holds 90% global market share), Post suggests Google should emphasize its new AI Overview features and any associated search query growth to address mounting concerns about market share erosion.
美银的贾斯廷·波斯特评论了《信息》报道，称 Meta 正在开发一个网页扫描搜索引擎，以通过其 Meta AI 聊天机器人提供有关新闻和当前事件的对话响应。虽然 Meta 的人工智能发展是意料之中的，波斯特建议，潜在搜索竞争的日益报道对 Alphabet 和谷歌搜索产生了“负面情绪”。然而，这位分析师认为，与谷歌相比，考虑到 Meta AI 目前有限的用户基础，Meta 在数据收集和网页爬虫能力方面面临重大劣势。虽然承认某些互联网流量可能会从谷歌搜索（占据 90%的全球市场份额）转移，但波斯特建议谷歌应强调其新的 AI 概况功能及任何相关搜索查询的增长，以应对对市场份额下降的日益担忧。
ROKU: Roku price target raised to $65 from $60 at Morgan Stanley as they preview the q
Roku：摩根士丹利将 Roku 的目标股价从 60 美元上调至 65 美元，因为他们预览了季度
MS notes ROKU shares have climbed approximately 35% post-Q2 results, attributing this gain to market optimism around advertising strength and new growth initiatives, which many believe could drive better-than-expected performance and accelerated growth heading into 2025. However, Swinburne suggests this positive sentiment may be "too early" and believes investors are underestimating competitive pressures in the space.
MS 指出，Roku 的股票在第二季度业绩公布后上涨了约 35%，将这一涨幅归因于市场对广告强劲和新增长举措的乐观态度，许多人认为这可能推动 2025 年业绩超出预期和加速增长。然而，Swinburne 表示这种积极情绪可能“为时尚早”，并认为投资者低估了该领域的竞争压力。
FTNT: Cantor assumes coverage at neutral with PT to $88 up from $65 on improving fundamentals
FTNT：Cantor 在基本面改善的情况下，将评级设为中性，目标价从 65 美元上调至 88 美元
Cantor notes recent checks highlight improvement in partner sell-through in Q324 relative to Q224, with several partners noting a material bounce-back in growth from 1H24, in addition to channel inventory stocking that sounds broader relative to Q224. Just over half of the partners Cantor spoke to (9 of 17) noted success in closing SASE deals. In addition, Cantor hears of increased channel-incentive activity, including take-out campaigns focused on the company's superior price/performance and TCO, in addition to channel incentives for longer-term contracts. Partner pipeline expectations are also growing, with partner growth assumptions for FY25 in the low double-digit range versus high single digits previously.
Cantor 指出，最近的检查显示，与 Q224 相比，Q324 时合作伙伴的销售通过率有所改善，几位合作伙伴表示相比于 2024 年上半年，增长有显著反弹，此外，渠道库存补货的情况在 Q224 相比之下似乎更为广泛。Cantor 与之交谈的合作伙伴中，超过一半（17 个中有 9 个）表示在达成 SASE 交易方面取得了成功。此外，Cantor 还听说渠道激励活动有所增加，包括专注于公司优越的性价比和总拥有成本的促销活动，以及长期合同的渠道激励。合作伙伴的潜在业务预期也在增长，预计 2025 财年的合作伙伴增长假设将达到低两位数范围，而之前为高个位数。
Chinese EV Stocks Jump as Government Expected to Boost Purchases
中国电动车股票上涨，预计政府将增加采购
Chinese electric-vehicle stocks rallied in Hong Kong after state media reported on government measures to support the sector’s development.
中国电动车股票在香港上涨，此前国家媒体报道了政府支持该行业发展的措施。Central-government agencies will increase purchases of new-energy vehicles, state media Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday, citing a government guideline dated Sept. 27 that said EVs should be no less than 30% of new vehicles purchased annually in principle.
中央政府机构将增加对新能源车辆的采购，国家媒体新华社报道周二引用了一份政府于 9 月 27 日发布的指南，指出电动汽车原则上应占年度新增采购车辆的 30%以上。It also stated that the purchase price per vehicle should not be above 180,000 yuan ($25,200), and recommended measures like construction of charging infrastructure to make EV usage easier.
它还指出，每辆车的购车价格不得超过 180,000 元（25,200 美元），并建议采取措施，如建设充电基础设施，以使电动车的使用更加方便。
FSLR: First Solar upgraded to Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott ahead of earnings
FSLR：在财报发布前，第一太阳能被珍妮·蒙哥马利·斯科特升级为买入评级
The stock has declined approximately 32% from its mid-June peak of $300, reflecting market concerns about delayed projects, AD/CVD tariff decisions, and election-related uncertainties. Given the current valuation, Milligan sees a "significantly better risk-reward balance." The analyst suggests clarity should emerge post-election and notes that a Trump victory could heighten focus on tariffs, which they believe would positively impact long-term pricing assumptions.
该股票自 6 月中旬最高点 300 美元以来，已下跌约 32%，反映出市场对项目延迟、反倾销/补贴关税决定和与选举相关的不确定性的担忧。考虑到当前估值，Milligan 认为“风险回报平衡显著改善”。分析师建议，选举后应会出现明确性，并指出特朗普获胜可能会加大对关税的关注，他们认为这将对长期定价假设产生积极影响。
Other News: 其他新闻：
AAPL: Apple Ships $6 Billion of iPhones From India in Big China Shift – Bloomberg
AAPL: 苹果在大规模转向中国中从印度发运 60 亿美元的 iPhone – 彭博社Global Semis: Japan to offer multi-year financial support for semiconductor industry; NHK reports that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is considering a new framework that provides financial support to Japanese chipmakers for multiple years, w/ a bill expected to be submitted as early as next year
全球半导体：日本将为半导体行业提供多年的财政支持；NHK报道，经济产业省正在考虑一个新的框架，为日本芯片制造商提供多年的财政支持，预计法案将于明年最早提交Global Semis: U.S. finalizes China tech investment ban targeting AI, chips – Nikkei Asia
全球半导体：美国最终确定针对人工智能和芯片的中国科技投资禁令 – 日本经济新闻RPD: Exclusive: Cybersecurity firm Rapid7 fields buyout interest, sources say – Reuters
RPD： 独家：网络安全公司 Rapid7 收到收购兴趣，消息人士称 – 路透社Semis/Hard Tech: US lawmakers urge review of China threat from silicon photonics technology – Reuters
半导体/硬科技: 美国立法者呼吁审查来自硅光子技术的中国威胁 – 路透社
