Strong US data caps UST rally; solid UK retail sales sends gilts higher; RBNZ's Silk says contraction may be needed to lower inflation; USD/THB falls amid political uncertainty; Hungary rates underperform; gold prices top $2,500/oz ; DXY at 102.40 (-0.6%); US 10y at 3.883% (-3.1bp).

We present our views on US Treasury and gilt futures contract rolls for the September to December cycle. We look at the fundamental drivers of the roll, investor positioning, delivery optionality, and relative value. Finally, we suggest optimal rolling strategies.

We review the supply, coupon, and redemption picture for the US, UK, Euro, JPY, AUS, NZ, CAN, and CNY government bond markets over the next month. This week, G7 net DV01 to be $56mn/bp, compared to an average* $60mn/bp; US $39mn/bp; Euro $5.5mn/bp; Japan $5mn/bp; UK $2mn/bp.

We think this is a solid set of results as comparable software growth of 14% YoY in 1H24 was ahead of most software peers'. This is driven by overseas business. Domestic revenue growth of 6% YoY (4% on a comparable basis) was dragged by a sharp 35% decline in the education sector (mainly public schools, B2G in nature) while commercial business held up well at a 20% YoY growth. After the diverge...

A weekly detailed guide of our most commonly tracked data points and proprietary models. The publication covers our latest market timing indicators, a comprehensive array of valuation models and our latest sentiment indicators.

We expect BI, BoT and BoK to stay on hold next week, but we are on the lookout for any signs of shifts in their forward guidance on whether they may signal rate cuts soon.

We provide holistic daily data set and charts for Japan interest rates. This includes important data such as JGB, OIS, ASW, JGB Futures and JGBi.

Risk Reward for JD Health International Inc. (6618.HK) has been updated

Web traffic trends in July reflected improvement at GDDY/WIX, relative to declines at LZ. Web trends data reads aligned with macro commentary heard on Q2 eps, as solo-preneur exposed web builders have proven more durable than feared, while new leadership seeks to insulate LZ from macro volatility.

While we continue to see Aerospace and Defense as strong end markets and capital deployment as an opportunity for CAE, we acknowledge execution has remained challenged and see potential risk to the company meeting its FY25 outlook for Civil. Downgrade to EW rating. PT to C$26.

Another quarter validating the market share gaining, higher margin growing profit story. We lay out takeaways below that were not in the release or the conference call. Raising PT to $82.

Quarter slightly better, but derisking of China DRAM to "near zero" is a material risk reduction around potential export controls. That said, elevated trailing edge ICAP tools remains a risk.

PC and server demand should be able to show slight growth in the September quarter, while ISG losses should narrow slightly. We also expect AI server shipments to start to ramp this quarter.

UST yields rise after strong retail sales and low jobless claims; Fed members are "open" to cutting rates soon; EGBs sell off amid improved outlook on US growth; local data support AUD and GBP; BSP cuts rates; strong US consumer supports equities; DXY at 103.05 (+0.5%); US 10y at 3.913% (+7.8bp).

Better monetization is expected come through post GMV market share stabilization, helped by new ad tool and roll-out of software services fee charge. Loss reduction from non-core businesses are tracking ahead of expectations. Primary listing completion by end of August to be the next checkpoint. EW.

Market sentiment dropped slightly with softening macro condition and lackluster 2Q result season so far. YTD Northbound flows turned negative intra-year for the first time in history. We expect market volatility to remain relatively high and advise positioning more defensively in the near term.

Despite capex cuts in 2024, inventory levels of leading MCU players edged up a further 6 days in 2Q24, breaking the previous quarter's record-high level; visibility for the cycle recovery is lower on account of this elevated inventory.

Data NOW highlights specific data points that reflect an important relationship for the fundamentals of a company. We focus on GigaDevice MCU's spot price in the channel market vs. MCU companies' share prices. Preliminary Aug -24 pricing is down 2% M/M.

Although JD's 2Q24 results beat on earnings, its revenue growth slowdown to 1.2% YoY should concern the market. Against the backdrop of weak consumption and more intense competition in e-Commerce, we don’t expect JD's revenue growth to recover meaningfully in 2H24.

We analyze price action in US interest rate volatility markets, particularly in OTC (vanilla, curve, and forward vol) and CBOT options. Data are as of August 15, 2024.

We believe share price softness post 2Q results is due to macro concerns and limited upside to cons. est. We are constructive on Tencent's outlook with (1) accelerating 2H games revenue growth, (2) VA to provide a buffer for ads growth, and (3) margin expansion tailwinds from S&M savings. Top Pick, OW.

We hosted two conference calls for Hon Hai post 2Q24 earnings. Key highlights were: - Gross margin factors: 1) product mix - assembly vs. component; 2) scale benefits for procurement and fixed cost sharing; and 3) cost control. AI server assembly (buy-and-sell) comes with a lower margin but increased internal component supply helps improve. - GB200 server rack system shipments are scheduled to...

The indicator dropped notably again in July. The main drag is the continuous contraction in M1 (-6.6% YoY, lowest since 2000). PPI deflation also persisted while IP growth slowed down further. We expect free liquidity to remain tight amid weak credit growth and deflation pressure.