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VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
VanEck 对 2024 年的 15 个加密货币预测

December 07, 2023 2023 年 12 月 7 日

Read Time 10+ MIN 阅读时间 10 分钟以上

We outline our top 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024.
我们概述了 2024 年 15 个加密货币预测。

Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.
请注意,VanEck 可能拥有下述数字资产的头寸。

Step into the realm of speculation with us as we embark on a whimsical journey into the future of crypto in 2024. In the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets, where imagination is not just a luxury but a necessary locomotive for investors, predicting a path feels akin to navigating through a galaxy of possibilities. We understand the skepticism that often surrounds predictions—after all, foreseeing the twists and turns of the crypto cosmos can feel as elusive as catching stardust in your hands. Yet, here we are, ready to peer into the crystal ball with a twinkle in our eyes, saluting the challenge. Because in the world of cryptocurrencies, where coins and tokens are born from the void, imagination has always been the catalyst for innovation. So, fasten your seatbelts, stow away your doubts, and join us in this speculative expedition as we attempt these first tracks in 2024's crypto terrain…with a few potential money-making ideas along the way, we ho-ho-hope! Here are our 15 crypto predictions for 2024, which we will dive into more on an upcoming webinar:
与我们一起进入投机领域,踏上 2024 年加密货币未来的异想天开之旅。在不断发展的数字资产格局中,想象力不再是一种奢侈品,而是投资者的必备动力,预测未来的发展方向感觉就像在充满可能性的银河中航行。我们理解人们对预测常常抱有怀疑态度——毕竟,预测加密货币宇宙的曲折就像手中握着星尘一样难以捉摸。然而,我们已经准备好,眼睛里闪烁着光芒,凝视水晶球,向挑战致敬。因为在加密货币的世界里,硬币和代币凭空诞生,想象力一直是创新的催化剂。所以,系好安全带,收起你的疑虑,加入我们的投机探险,我们将在 2024 年的加密货币领域尝试这些第一条路线……一路上有一些潜在的赚钱想法,我们希望!以下是我们对 2024 年的 15 个加密货币预测,我们将在即将举行的网络研讨会上深入探讨这些预测:

  1. U.S. Recession Arrival and Debut of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
    美国经济衰退来临,现货比特币 ETF 首次亮相
  2. Uneventful Fourth Bitcoin Halving
  3. Bitcoin's All-Time High in Q4 of 2024
    比特币在 2024 年第四季度创历史新高
  4. Ethereum's Market Position Behind Bitcoin in 2024
    2024 年以太坊市场地位落后于比特币
  5. Dominance of ETH Layer 2s Post-EIP-4844
    EIP-4844 之后 ETH 第 2 层的主导地位
  6. NFT Activity Peaks to New Heights
    NFT 活动达到新高度
  7. Binance Relinquishes Top Position in Spot Trading
  8. Stablecoin Market Cap Hits Record High with USDC Market Share Recovery
    USDC 市场份额回升,稳定币市值创历史新高
  9. Decentralized Exchanges Attain Record Spot Trading Market Share
  10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities Driven by Remittances and Smart Contract Platforms
  11. Emergence of a Leading Blockchain Game
  12. Solana Outperforms Ethereum with Resurging DeFi TVL
    Solana 凭借 DeFi TVL 的复苏超越以太坊
  13. Meaningful Adoption of DePin Networks
    有意义地采用 DePin Networks
  14. Corporate Crypto Holdings Boosted by New Accounting Standards
  15. DeFi's Reconciliation with KYC Regulations
    DeFi 与 KYC 法规的协调

The U.S. economy will finally succumb to recession in the first half of the year. Economic momentum has been slowing for months, and inflation has cooled along, creating an economy more vulnerable to shocks. U.S. leading indicators are now in recessionary territory after 19 months of consecutive declines, close to a record. Shares of retailers are struggling, commodities are weak, employment is softening, corporate bankruptcy filings are back to early COVID levels, and the yield curve is inverted but steepening in recent weeks- all are very late-cycle dynamics. "Soft landing" mentions in the media have spiked, as they often do before an official recession is called. Bitcoin has only experienced one official US recession, from January to April 2020, during which it fell 60% peak-to-trough before rallying sharply once the Fed provided sufficient liquidity. Gold also tends to decline in the early periods of a recession - it fell 12% in two weeks in March 2020. Still, its recent breakout confirms strong demand for hard money that is not cancellable by U.S. authorities, a characteristic shared with Bitcoin. As debt levels are more concerning at the sovereign than corporate or household levels, we expect more than $2.4B will flow into newly approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024 to keep the Bitcoin price elevated. Notwithstanding the possibility of significant volatility, the Bitcoin price is unlikely to fall below $30k in Q1 2024.
美国经济将在今年上半年最终陷入衰退。几个月来经济势头一直在放缓,通胀也随之降温,导致经济更容易受到冲击。美国领先指标在连续 19 个月下降后,目前已进入衰退区域,接近创纪录水平。零售商股价陷入困境,大宗商品疲软,就业疲软,企业破产申请回到新冠疫情早期水平,收益率曲线倒挂但最近几周变得陡峭——所有这些都是周期末期的动态。媒体对“软着陆”的提及激增,就像在正式宣布经济衰退之前经常发生的那样。比特币只经历过一次美国官方的经济衰退,即 2020 年 1 月至 4 月,期间从高峰到低谷下跌了 60%,然后在美联储提供充足的流动性后大幅反弹。黄金在经济衰退初期也往往会下跌——2020 年 3 月的两周内下跌了 12%。不过,黄金最近的突破证实了美国当局无法取消的对硬通货的强劲需求,这一特征与比特币相同。由于债务水平在主权层面比企业或家庭层面更令人担忧,我们预计超过 2.4B 美元将在 2024 年第一季度流入新批准的美国现货比特币 ETF,以保持比特币价格上涨。尽管存在大幅波动的可能性,但比特币价格在 2024 年第一季度不太可能跌破 3 万美元。

We approximate the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs by examining the relative ratios of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF and adjusting it to 2023 dollars. The GLD ETF launched on November 18, 2004, and it saw inflows of around $1B in the first few days of launch, and by the end of Q1 2005, around $2.26B was in GLD. At that date, the total physical gold supply stood at around 152k metric tons, with each ton worth around $15.6M, which implies a total market value of $2.36T. The initial dollar inflows into GLD in those first few days post-launch were around 0.04% of the total gold market. Around one quarter later, on March 31, 2005, GLD reached inflows of $2.26B, and after accounting for supply growth and gold price changes, GLD had become 0.1% of the global gold supply. If we apply these figures to the Bitcoin spot market, we arrive at inflows of $310M in the first few days of BTC spot ETF and ~$750M within a quarter.
我们通过检查 SPDR 黄金股 (GLD) ETF 的相对比率并将其调整为 2023 年美元来估算比特币 ETF 的流入量。 GLD ETF 于 2004 年 11 月 18 日推出,在推出的最初几天内流入了约 1B 美元,到 2005 年第一季度末,GLD 流入了约 2.26B 美元。截至当时,实物黄金供应总量约为 15.2 万吨,每吨价值约为 1560 万美元,这意味着总市值为 2.36 吨。 GLD 推出后的头几天,最初流入 GLD 的美元约占黄金市场总量的 0.04%。大约一个季度后,即2005年3月31日,GLD流入量达到$2.26B,考虑到供应增长和金价变化后,GLD已占全球黄金供应量的0.1%。如果我们将这些数据应用到比特币现货市场,我们会发现 BTC 现货 ETF 的最初几天流入量为 3.1 亿美元,一个季度内流入量约为 7.5 亿美元。

However, that was the era of higher interest rates and a far lower money supply. In 2023, we are no longer in the “Dead Ball” era of finance but are careening through the HGH/Steroid era. As measured by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, the supply of M2 in November 2004 was 6.4T dollars compared to $20.7T in October 2023. As such, we believe it is logical to apply that ratio, 3.23x, to possible inflows, bringing us to around $1B in the first few days of a spot Bitcoin ETF and $2.4B within a quarter. Extending our logic further, a more mature state of the BTC ETF may approximate around 1.7%, the approximate amount of gold’s total supply held in gold ETFs, of the total spot market for BTC. This initial sum stands at around $12.5B. As we assume that Bitcoin is taking significant market share from Gold among the hard money crowd and expect 2024 to be a peak year of voter understanding of debt-driven money printing, we apply our 3.23x multiple based on M2 outstanding, to arrive at a medium-term estimate of $40.4B inflows over the first two years of trading.
然而,那是一个利率较高、货币供应量低得多的时代。 2023年,我们不再处于金融的“死球”时代,而是正在迈入HGH/类固醇时代。根据纽约联邦储备银行的测量,2004 年 11 月的 M2 供应量为 6.4 吨美元,而 2023 年 10 月为 20.7 吨美元。因此,我们认为将 3.23 倍的比率应用于可能的流入是合乎逻辑的,从而带来在现货比特币 ETF 的最初几天内,我们的价格将达到 10 亿美元左右,一个季度内将达到 2.4 亿美元。进一步延伸我们的逻辑,BTC ETF 的更成熟状态可能约为 BTC 现货市场总量的 1.7% 左右,即黄金 ETF 中持有的黄金总供应量的大约数量。初始金额约为 $12.5B。由于我们假设比特币在硬通货人群中正在从黄金手中夺走重要的市场份额,并预计 2024 年将是选民对债务驱动的印钞理解的高峰年,因此我们应用基于 M2 未偿付的 3.23 倍倍数,得出交易前两年的中期估计流入额为 40.4B 美元。

Lastly, we note that Coinbase charges retail traders all-in transaction fees of ~2.5%. We believe spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely trade at ~10bps spreads, with zero commission at many brokerages. When was the last time a 10x cost reduction didn't catalyze MUCH higher penetration for new tech?
最后,我们注意到 Coinbase 向零售交易者收取约 2.5% 的总交易费。我们认为现货比特币 ETF 的交易价差可能约为 10 个基点,许多经纪公司的佣金为零。上一次成本降低 10 倍却没有促进新技术的渗透率大幅提高是什么时候?

2. The 4th Bitcoin halving will occur with minimal drama.

The four-year Bitcoin halving will proceed without a major fork or missed blocks in April 2024. As the new coin issuance gets cut in half, unprofitable miners will disconnect, ceding shares to those with low-cost power. Still, the public markets will see little distress thanks to much-improved balance sheets among listed miners, who currently control a record % global hash rate (~25%). After a brief (several days to several weeks) period of consolidation post-halving, as the market digests the additional selling pressure from unprofitable miners, Bitcoin will rise above $48k, the neckline of the head-and-shoulder pattern completed in April 2022. Bitcoin miners, in aggregate, will underperform the Bitcoin price before the halving, although the low-cost miners CLSK and RIOT will outperform the field. After the halving, we expect at least one publicly traded miner to be 10x by the end of the year.
为期四年的比特币减半将于 2024 年 4 月在没有重大分叉或错过区块的情况下进行。随着新币发行量减少一半,无利可图的矿商将断开连接,将股份让给那些拥有低成本电力的矿商。尽管如此,由于上市矿商的资产负债表大幅改善,公开市场不会受到太大影响,这些矿商目前控制着创纪录的全球算力百分比(约 25%)。经过减半后短暂(几天到几周)的盘整,随着市场消化来自无利可图的矿商的额外抛售压力,比特币将升至 4.8 万美元以上,这是 2022 年 4 月完成的头肩形态的颈线总体而言,比特币矿商在减半前的表现将低于比特币价格,尽管低成本矿商 CLSK 和 RIOT 的表现将优于该领域。减半后,我们预计到今年年底,至少有一家上市矿商的涨幅将达到 10 倍。

Days Since Bitcoin Cycle Peak

Days Since Bitcoin Cycle Peak

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck research as of 11/30/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.