VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
VanEck 对 2024 年的 15 个加密货币预测

Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.
请注意，VanEck 可能拥有下述数字资产的头寸。

Step into the realm of speculation with us as we embark on a whimsical journey into the future of crypto in 2024. In the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets, where imagination is not just a luxury but a necessary locomotive for investors, predicting a path feels akin to navigating through a galaxy of possibilities. We understand the skepticism that often surrounds predictions—after all, foreseeing the twists and turns of the crypto cosmos can feel as elusive as catching stardust in your hands. Yet, here we are, ready to peer into the crystal ball with a twinkle in our eyes, saluting the challenge. Because in the world of cryptocurrencies, where coins and tokens are born from the void, imagination has always been the catalyst for innovation. So, fasten your seatbelts, stow away your doubts, and join us in this speculative expedition as we attempt these first tracks in 2024's crypto terrain…with a few potential money-making ideas along the way, we ho-ho-hope! Here are our 15 crypto predictions for 2024, which we will dive into more on an upcoming webinar:
与我们一起进入投机领域，踏上 2024 年加密货币未来的异想天开之旅。在不断发展的数字资产格局中，想象力不再是一种奢侈品，而是投资者的必备动力，预测未来的发展方向感觉就像在充满可能性的银河中航行。我们理解人们对预测常常抱有怀疑态度——毕竟，预测加密货币宇宙的曲折就像手中握着星尘一样难以捉摸。然而，我们已经准备好，眼睛里闪烁着光芒，凝视水晶球，向挑战致敬。因为在加密货币的世界里，硬币和代币凭空诞生，想象力一直是创新的催化剂。所以，系好安全带，收起你的疑虑，加入我们的投机探险，我们将在 2024 年的加密货币领域尝试这些第一条路线……一路上有一些潜在的赚钱想法，我们希望！以下是我们对 2024 年的 15 个加密货币预测，我们将在即将举行的网络研讨会上深入探讨这些预测：

1. U.S. Recession Arrival and Debut of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
   美国经济衰退来临，现货比特币 ETF 首次亮相
2. Uneventful Fourth Bitcoin Halving
   平静的第四次比特币减半
3. Bitcoin's All-Time High in Q4 of 2024
   比特币在 2024 年第四季度创历史新高
4. Ethereum's Market Position Behind Bitcoin in 2024
   2024 年以太坊市场地位落后于比特币
5. Dominance of ETH Layer 2s Post-EIP-4844
   EIP-4844 之后 ETH 第 2 层的主导地位
6. NFT Activity Peaks to New Heights
   NFT 活动达到新高度
7. Binance Relinquishes Top Position in Spot Trading
   币安放弃了现货交易的领先地位
8. Stablecoin Market Cap Hits Record High with USDC Market Share Recovery
   USDC 市场份额回升，稳定币市值创历史新高
9. Decentralized Exchanges Attain Record Spot Trading Market Share
   去中心化交易所现货交易市场份额创历史新高
10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities Driven by Remittances and Smart Contract Platforms
    汇款和智能合约平台推动的比特币收益机会
11. Emergence of a Leading Blockchain Game
    领先区块链游戏的出现
12. Solana Outperforms Ethereum with Resurging DeFi TVL
    Solana 凭借 DeFi TVL 的复苏超越以太坊
13. Meaningful Adoption of DePin Networks
    有意义地采用 DePin Networks
14. Corporate Crypto Holdings Boosted by New Accounting Standards
    新会计准则推动企业加密货币持有量增加
15. DeFi's Reconciliation with KYC Regulations
    DeFi 与 KYC 法规的协调

1. The long-awaited U.S. recession will finally arrive, but so will the first spot Bitcoin ETFs!
1. 期待已久的美国经济衰退终于到来，第一批现货比特币 ETF 也将到来！

The U.S. economy will finally succumb to recession in the first half of the year. Economic momentum has been slowing for months, and inflation has cooled along, creating an economy more vulnerable to shocks. U.S. leading indicators are now in recessionary territory after 19 months of consecutive declines, close to a record. Shares of retailers are struggling, commodities are weak, employment is softening, corporate bankruptcy filings are back to early COVID levels, and the yield curve is inverted but steepening in recent weeks- all are very late-cycle dynamics. "Soft landing" mentions in the media have spiked, as they often do before an official recession is called. Bitcoin has only experienced one official US recession, from January to April 2020, during which it fell 60% peak-to-trough before rallying sharply once the Fed provided sufficient liquidity. Gold also tends to decline in the early periods of a recession - it fell 12% in two weeks in March 2020. Still, its recent breakout confirms strong demand for hard money that is not cancellable by U.S. authorities, a characteristic shared with Bitcoin. As debt levels are more concerning at the sovereign than corporate or household levels, we expect more than $2.4B will flow into newly approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024 to keep the Bitcoin price elevated. Notwithstanding the possibility of significant volatility, the Bitcoin price is unlikely to fall below $30k in Q1 2024.
美国经济将在今年上半年最终陷入衰退。几个月来经济势头一直在放缓，通胀也随之降温，导致经济更容易受到冲击。美国领先指标在连续 19 个月下降后，目前已进入衰退区域，接近创纪录水平。零售商股价陷入困境，大宗商品疲软，就业疲软，企业破产申请回到新冠疫情早期水平，收益率曲线倒挂但最近几周变得陡峭——所有这些都是周期末期的动态。媒体对“软着陆”的提及激增，就像在正式宣布经济衰退之前经常发生的那样。比特币只经历过一次美国官方的经济衰退，即 2020 年 1 月至 4 月，期间从高峰到低谷下跌了 60%，然后在美联储提供充足的流动性后大幅反弹。黄金在经济衰退初期也往往会下跌——2020 年 3 月的两周内下跌了 12%。不过，黄金最近的突破证实了美国当局无法取消的对硬通货的强劲需求，这一特征与比特币相同。由于债务水平在主权层面比企业或家庭层面更令人担忧，我们预计超过 2.4B 美元将在 2024 年第一季度流入新批准的美国现货比特币 ETF，以保持比特币价格上涨。尽管存在大幅波动的可能性，但比特币价格在 2024 年第一季度不太可能跌破 3 万美元。

We approximate the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs by examining the relative ratios of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF and adjusting it to 2023 dollars. The GLD ETF launched on November 18, 2004, and it saw inflows of around $1B in the first few days of launch, and by the end of Q1 2005, around $2.26B was in GLD. At that date, the total physical gold supply stood at around 152k metric tons, with each ton worth around $15.6M, which implies a total market value of $2.36T. The initial dollar inflows into GLD in those first few days post-launch were around 0.04% of the total gold market. Around one quarter later, on March 31, 2005, GLD reached inflows of $2.26B, and after accounting for supply growth and gold price changes, GLD had become 0.1% of the global gold supply. If we apply these figures to the Bitcoin spot market, we arrive at inflows of $310M in the first few days of BTC spot ETF and ~$750M within a quarter.
我们通过检查 SPDR 黄金股 (GLD) ETF 的相对比率并将其调整为 2023 年美元来估算比特币 ETF 的流入量。 GLD ETF 于 2004 年 11 月 18 日推出，在推出的最初几天内流入了约 1B 美元，到 2005 年第一季度末，GLD 流入了约 2.26B 美元。截至当时，实物黄金供应总量约为 15.2 万吨，每吨价值约为 1560 万美元，这意味着总市值为 2.36 吨。 GLD 推出后的头几天，最初流入 GLD 的美元约占黄金市场总量的 0.04%。大约一个季度后，即2005年3月31日，GLD流入量达到$2.26B，考虑到供应增长和金价变化后，GLD已占全球黄金供应量的0.1%。如果我们将这些数据应用到比特币现货市场，我们会发现 BTC 现货 ETF 的最初几天流入量为 3.1 亿美元，一个季度内流入量约为 7.5 亿美元。

However, that was the era of higher interest rates and a far lower money supply. In 2023, we are no longer in the “Dead Ball” era of finance but are careening through the HGH/Steroid era. As measured by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, the supply of M2 in November 2004 was 6.4T dollars compared to $20.7T in October 2023. As such, we believe it is logical to apply that ratio, 3.23x, to possible inflows, bringing us to around $1B in the first few days of a spot Bitcoin ETF and $2.4B within a quarter. Extending our logic further, a more mature state of the BTC ETF may approximate around 1.7%, the approximate amount of gold’s total supply held in gold ETFs, of the total spot market for BTC. This initial sum stands at around $12.5B. As we assume that Bitcoin is taking significant market share from Gold among the hard money crowd and expect 2024 to be a peak year of voter understanding of debt-driven money printing, we apply our 3.23x multiple based on M2 outstanding, to arrive at a medium-term estimate of $40.4B inflows over the first two years of trading.
然而，那是一个利率较高、货币供应量低得多的时代。 2023年，我们不再处于金融的“死球”时代，而是正在迈入HGH/类固醇时代。根据纽约联邦储备银行的测量，2004 年 11 月的 M2 供应量为 6.4 吨美元，而 2023 年 10 月为 20.7 吨美元。因此，我们认为将 3.23 倍的比率应用于可能的流入是合乎逻辑的，从而带来在现货比特币 ETF 的最初几天内，我们的价格将达到 10 亿美元左右，一个季度内将达到 2.4 亿美元。进一步延伸我们的逻辑，BTC ETF 的更成熟状态可能约为 BTC 现货市场总量的 1.7% 左右，即黄金 ETF 中持有的黄金总供应量的大约数量。初始金额约为 $12.5B。由于我们假设比特币在硬通货人群中正在从黄金手中夺走重要的市场份额，并预计 2024 年将是选民对债务驱动的印钞理解的高峰年，因此我们应用基于 M2 未偿付的 3.23 倍倍数，得出交易前两年的中期估计流入额为 40.4B 美元。

Lastly, we note that Coinbase charges retail traders all-in transaction fees of ~2.5%. We believe spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely trade at ~10bps spreads, with zero commission at many brokerages. When was the last time a 10x cost reduction didn't catalyze MUCH higher penetration for new tech?
最后，我们注意到 Coinbase 向零售交易者收取约 2.5% 的总交易费。我们认为现货比特币 ETF 的交易价差可能约为 10 个基点，许多经纪公司的佣金为零。上一次成本降低 10 倍却没有促进新技术的渗透率大幅提高是什么时候？

2. The 4th Bitcoin halving will occur with minimal drama.
2.第四次比特币减半将以最小的戏剧性发生。

The four-year Bitcoin halving will proceed without a major fork or missed blocks in April 2024. As the new coin issuance gets cut in half, unprofitable miners will disconnect, ceding shares to those with low-cost power. Still, the public markets will see little distress thanks to much-improved balance sheets among listed miners, who currently control a record % global hash rate (~25%). After a brief (several days to several weeks) period of consolidation post-halving, as the market digests the additional selling pressure from unprofitable miners, Bitcoin will rise above $48k, the neckline of the head-and-shoulder pattern completed in April 2022. Bitcoin miners, in aggregate, will underperform the Bitcoin price before the halving, although the low-cost miners CLSK and RIOT will outperform the field. After the halving, we expect at least one publicly traded miner to be 10x by the end of the year.
为期四年的比特币减半将于 2024 年 4 月在没有重大分叉或错过区块的情况下进行。随着新币发行量减少一半，无利可图的矿商将断开连接，将股份让给那些拥有低成本电力的矿商。尽管如此，由于上市矿商的资产负债表大幅改善，公开市场不会受到太大影响，这些矿商目前控制着创纪录的全球算力百分比（约 25%）。经过减半后短暂（几天到几周）的盘整，随着市场消化来自无利可图的矿商的额外抛售压力，比特币将升至 4.8 万美元以上，这是 2022 年 4 月完成的头肩形态的颈线总体而言，比特币矿商在减半前的表现将低于比特币价格，尽管低成本矿商 CLSK 和 RIOT 的表现将优于该领域。减半后，我们预计到今年年底，至少有一家上市矿商的涨幅将达到 10 倍。

Days Since Bitcoin Cycle Peak
比特币周期高峰以来的天数

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck research as of 11/30/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：彭博社、VanEck 研究截至 23 年 11 月 30 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

3. Bitcoin will make an all-time high in Q4.
3. 比特币将在第四季度创下历史新高。

In the second half of 2024, Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized wall of worry. The percentage of the global population voting in legislative and presidential elections will hit an all-time high above 45% in 2024. This high level of important elections augurs high volatility and the prospect of significant changes. More specifically, we see mounting evidence that voters and courts are rejecting the anti-growth agenda of the Green lobby. Thus, after a combative election that saw Donald Trump win 290 electoral votes and regain the Presidency, raising optimism that the SEC's hostile regulatory approach will be dismantled, we think the Bitcoin price will reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly 3 years to the day from its last all-time high. (Recall that Bitcoin’s breakout in November 2020 also came exactly three years to the day from its November 2017 top). If Bitcoin reaches $100k by December, we make a long-shot call that Satoshi Nakamoto will be named Time Magazine's "Man of the Year."
2024 年下半年，比特币将攀上总统大小的忧虑之墙。到2024年，全球人口在立法和总统选举中投票的比例将达到45%以上的历史新高。如此高水平的重要选举预示着高度的波动性和重大变化的前景。更具体地说，我们看到越来越多的证据表明选民和法院正在拒绝绿色游说团体的反增长议程。因此，在唐纳德·特朗普赢得 290 张选举人票并重新当选总统的激烈选举之后，人们对 SEC 的敌对监管方式将被废除感到乐观，我们认为比特币价格将在 11 月 9 日达到历史新高，整整 3 年从最后一个历史高点到今天。 （回想一下，比特币在 2020 年 11 月的突破也是距离 2017 年 11 月的顶峰整整三年的时间）。如果比特币到 12 月达到 10 万美元，我们将预测中本聪将被《时代》杂志评为“年度人物”。

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck research as of 11/30/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on Bitcoin in this blog are not intended as financial advice or any call to action, a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin, or as a projection of how Bitcoin will perform in the future. Actual future performance of Bitcoin is unknown, and may differ significantly from the hypothetical results depicted here. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in the scenarios presented that may impede the performance of Bitcoin. These are solely the results of a simulation based on our research, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
资料来源：彭博社、VanEck 研究截至 23 年 11 月 30 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。本博客中提供的有关比特币的信息、估值情景和价格目标并非旨在作为财务建议或任何行动号召、购买或出售比特币的建议，或作为对比特币未来表现的预测。比特币未来的实际表现尚不清楚，可能与此处描述的假设结果有很大差异。所提出的场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素，这些因素可能会阻碍比特币的表现。这些仅仅是基于我们研究的模拟结果，仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

4. Ethereum won’t flip Bitcoin in 2024
4. 以太坊不会在 2024 年颠覆比特币

Ethereum will fail to flip Bitcoin in 2024, but it will outperform every mega-cap tech stock. Bitcoin’s more apparent regulatory status and energy intensity will attract interest from quasi-state entities in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia. Argentina will join El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, and Bhutan as the fifth country to sponsor Bitcoin mining at the state level, as Argentina’s state-owned energy giant YPF may indicate interest in mining digital assets with stranded methane and gas. Like past cycles, Bitcoin will lead the market to rally, and the value will flow into smaller tokens just after the halving. ETH won’t begin outperforming Bitcoin until post-halving and may outperform for the year, but there will be no “flippening.” Despite a strong performance in 2024, ETH will lose market share to other smart contract platforms with less uncertainty surrounding their scalability roadmap, such as Solana.
以太坊将无法在 2024 年颠覆比特币，但它将跑赢所有大型科技股。比特币更明显的监管地位和能源强度将吸引拉丁美洲、中东和亚洲准国家实体的兴趣。阿根廷将加入萨尔瓦多、阿联酋、阿曼和不丹的行列，成为第五个在国家层面赞助比特币挖矿的国家，因为阿根廷国有能源巨头 YPF 可能表示有兴趣利用搁浅的甲烷和天然气开采数字资产。与过去的周期一样，比特币将引领市场上涨，减半后价值将流入较小的代币。直到减半后，ETH 的表现才会开始超过比特币，并且可能在今年表现优于比特币，但不会出现“翻转”。尽管 ETH 在 2024 年表现强劲，但市场份额仍将被其他可扩展性路线图不确定性较小的智能合约平台（例如 Solana）夺走。

Bitcoin Mining Investments ($'m) By Country, GDP
比特币挖矿投资（百万美元）（按国家/地区划分）、GDP

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence as of 8/31/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：彭博资讯，截至 2023 年 8 月 31 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

ETH: BTC Ratio ETH：BTC 比率

Source: Coingecko as of 11/28/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：Coingecko 截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

5. ETH L2s will capture the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and volume post-EIP-4844
5. ETH L2 将占据 EIP-4844 后的大部分 EVM 兼容 TVL 和数量

Ethereum will implement EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding), which will reduce transaction fees and improve scalability for layer 2 chains such as Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, and others. Within 1 year of the upgrade, Ethereum L2s will consolidate down to 2-3 dominant players as measured by value and usage. One will achieve higher monthly DEX volume/TVL than Ethereum for the first time. Collectively, these chains may accumulate 2x the DEX volume of Ethereum (currently 0.8x) by Q4 of 2024 and 10x the number of transactions.
以太坊将实施 EIP-4844（proto-danksharding），这将降低交易费用并提高 Polygon、Arbitrum、Optimism 等第 2 层链的可扩展性。升级后 1 年内，按价值和使用情况衡量，以太坊 L2 将整合至 2-3 个主导参与者。人们将首次实现比以太坊更高的每月 DEX 交易量/TVL。总的来说，到 2024 年第四季度，这些链的 DEX 交易量可能会达到以太坊的 2 倍（目前为 0.8 倍），交易数量可能会达到 10 倍。

One of them will achieve higher monthly DEX volume/TVL (total valued locked) than Ethereum for the first time. This is because cheaper transaction fees enable tighter bid/ask spreads due to the high cost of DEX transactions on Ethereum. With stricter bid/ask spreads, there exists a greater number of arbitrage opportunities, which leads to more trading. Additionally, faster block times, only 0.25 seconds on chains like Arbitrum, enable more transaction throughput and more prospects for CEX/DEX and DEX/DEX arbitrage. As a result, DEXes and L2s should attract more volume due to the trading opportunities they enable. Collectively, these chains may accumulate 2x the DEX volume of Ethereum (currently 0.8x) by Q4 of 2024 and 10x the number of transactions.
其中一个将首次实现比以太坊更高的每月 DEX 交易量/TVL（锁定总价值）。这是因为，由于以太坊上的 DEX 交易成本较高，交易费用较低，因此买卖价差较小。买/卖价差越严格，套利机会就越多，从而导致交易量越多。此外，更快的出块时间（在 Arbitrum 等链上仅为 0.25 秒）可实现更高的交易吞吐量，并为 CEX/DEX 和 DEX/DEX 套利提供更多前景。因此，由于 DEX 和 L2 提供的交易机会，它们应该会吸引更多的交易量。总的来说，到 2024 年第四季度，这些链的 DEX 交易量可能会达到以太坊的 2 倍（目前为 0.8 倍），交易数量可能会达到 10 倍。

Within 1 year of the upgrade, Ethereum L2s will consolidate down to 2-3 dominant players as measured by value and usage. This is due to the fact that liquidity fragmentation will accelerate the dominance of the dominant L2s. This has already occurred in DEXes, where the exchanges Uniswap, Pancake Swap, and Curve accounted for 78% of DEX volumes in 2023. The same market consolidation on will occur across L2s, with Arbitrum and Optimism looking to be the main contenders.
升级后 1 年内，按价值和使用情况衡量，以太坊 L2 将整合至 2-3 个主导参与者。这是因为流动性碎片化将加速占主导地位的 L2 的主导地位。这种情况已经在 DEX 中发生，其中 Uniswap、Pancake Swap 和 Curve 交易所在 2023 年占 DEX 交易量的 78%。L2 领域也将出现同样的市场整合，Arbitrum 和 Optimism 有望成为主要竞争者。

Ethereum Share of DEX Volume
以太坊占 DEX 交易量的份额

Source: Artemis.xyz as of 12/3/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
来源：Artemis.xyz，截至 23 年 12 月 3 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

6. NFT activity will rebound to an all-time high.
6. NFT 活动将反弹至历史新高。

Monthly NFT volumes will approach a new all-time high as speculators return to crypto and gravitate toward top NFT collections on Ethereum, improved crypto games, and new Bitcoin-based offerings. Despite ETH's nearly 50-1 ratio vs. Bitcoin in primary NFT sales since inception, Bitcoin's Ordinals protocol and emerging layer 2 chains on Bitcoin will drive a continued rebirth in Bitcoin network fees. The ratio of ETH-to-BTC primary NFT issuance will end in 2024 closer to 3-1. Stacks (STX), a smart contract platform secured by Bitcoin, will become a top-30 coin by market cap (currently #54).
随着投机者重返加密货币并倾向于以太坊上的顶级 NFT 系列、改进的加密游戏和基于比特币的新产品，每月 NFT 交易量将创下历史新高。尽管自诞生以来，在主要 NFT 销售中 ETH 与比特币的比率接近 50:1，但比特币的 Ordinals 协议和比特币上新兴的第 2 层链将推动比特币网络费用的持续重生。 ETH 与 BTC 初级 NFT 发行比例将在 2024 年接近 3:1。 Stacks (STX) 是一个由比特币担保的智能合约平台，将成为市值排名前 30 的代币（目前排名第 54）。

Bitcoin & ETH NFT Volume
比特币和 ETH NFT 交易量

Source: Cryptoslam! as of 11/28/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
来源：加密伊斯兰！截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

7. Binance will lose the #1 position for spot trading.
7. 币安将失去现货交易第一的位置。

Binance will lose its throne as the #1 centralized exchange by volumes after the company's $4B settlement with US regulators. OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget will emerge as well-funded competitors with the potential to grab the #1 spot. Crypto exchanges' pricing inclusion in regulated indices, such as those administered by VanEck subsidiary MarketVectors, will become a critical variable in determining whether certain centralized exchanges are eligible to provide liquidity for ETF-authorized participants and sponsors. With Binance now facing a 3-year DOJ colonoscopy, Coinbase's international futures market will gain share and surpass $1B/day volume, up from ~$200M/day in November 2023.
在与美国监管机构达成 40 亿美元的和解后，币安将失去交易量排名第一的中心化交易所的宝座。 OKX、Bybit、Coinbase 和 Bitget 将成为资金雄厚的竞争对手，有可能抢占第一的位置。加密货币交易所的定价纳入受监管指数（例如由 VanEck 子公司 MarketVectors 管理的指数）将成为确定某些中心化交易所是否有资格为 ETF 授权参与者和发起人提供流动性的关键变量。由于币安现在面临司法部为期 3 年的结肠镜检查，Coinbase 的国际期货市场将获得份额并超过 10 亿美元/天的交易量，高于 2023 年 11 月的约 2 亿美元/天。

8. Stablecoin market cap will reach a new all-time high as USDC reverses share losses.
8. 随着 USDC 扭转份额损失，稳定币市值将创历史新高。

The total value of stablecoins on the chain will reach an all-time high above $200B (currently $128B) as Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulated stablecoins launch in Europe, yield-bearing stablecoins proliferate, and trading volumes continue to rebound. More controversially, USDC will flip USDT, as more institutional adoption will reveal a preference for USDC already evident on newer L2 chains. Tether’s market share losses may finally materialize after the U.S. U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) takes enforcement against Justin Sun & Tron for Know Your Customer (KYC) infractions, terror financing, and/or market manipulation.
随着加密资产市场（MiCA）监管的稳定币在欧洲推出，有收益的稳定币激增，交易量持续反弹，链上稳定币总价值将达到 $200B 以上（目前为 $128B）的历史新高。更具争议性的是，USDC 将取代 USDT，因为更多的机构采用将显示出对 USDC 的偏好在较新的 L2 链上已经很明显。在美国司法部 (DOJ) 对 Justin Sun 和 Tron 因了解你的客户 (KYC) 违规、恐怖融资和/或市场操纵行为采取执法行动后，Tether 的市场份额损失可能最终会成为现实。

Monthly Change in Crypto USD Liquidity
加密货币美元流动性的每月变化

Source: Coingecko as of 11/27/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：Coingecko 截至 2023 年 11 月 27 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

9. DEX market share of spot trading will reach new all-time highs.
9、DEX现货交易市场份额将创历史新高。

DEX: CEX Spot Trade Volume
DEX：CEX 现货交易量

Source: The Block, The Graph, Coingecko as of 11/28/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：The Block、The Graph、Coingecko 截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) market share of spot crypto trading will rise to an all-time high as high-throughput chains like Solana improve the on-chain trading experience for users. Meanwhile, much-improved wallets - incorporating "account abstraction," a critical feature in enabling automated payments -- will push more users on-chain and into self-custody solutions. As BTC and ETH dominance likely declines after the Bitcoin halving, the long tail of assets may grow faster, skewing trading activity towards decentralized exchanges that list coins earlier in their lifecycle.
随着像 Solana 这样的高吞吐量链改善用户的链上交易体验，去中心化交易所（DEX）在现货加密货币交易中的市场份额将升至历史新高。与此同时，经过大幅改进的钱包——纳入了“账户抽象”——实现自动支付的关键功能——将推动更多用户使用链上的自我托管解决方案。由于比特币减半后 BTC 和 ETH 的主导地位可能会下降，资产的长尾可能会增长得更快，从而使交易活动偏向于在其生命周期早期列出代币的去中心化交易所。

10. Remittances and smart contract platforms will power a new Bitcoin yield opportunity
10. 汇款和智能合约平台将推动新的比特币收益机会

Remittances will emerge as a killer blockchain use case as easier off-ramping and spending of stablecoins make recipient payouts cheap and useful in emerging markets. Given the use of the Bitcoin and layer 2 Lightning (LN) network in some remittance corridors, "Bitcoin Staking" will become a narrative in 2024. With transaction costs rising on the Bitcoin blockchain, BTC maximalists will start spreading the news that you can stake on the BTC network and earn a yield. Staking to Lightning Nodes happens today but is risky and has low return as your BTC is used for payment settlements on the Lightning network. With the proliferation protocols that abstract the technical nuances of managing a Lightning node, such as Amboss, along with federated self-custody solutions like Fedi, users will be able to participate in the remittance market from cold wallets and earn some yield. In addition, Bitcoin holders will be given a new business opportunity in 2024 as a provider of security to Proof of Stake blockchains. Utilizing projects like Cosmos-based Babylon, which will enable BTC holders to earn yield by offering non-custodial staking of PoS chains, Bitcoin holders will be able to earn yield on their Bitcoin and potentially participate in an array of other productive use cases for their BTC.
汇款将成为区块链的杀手锏，因为稳定币的退出和支出更加容易，使得新兴市场的收款人付款变得便宜且有用。鉴于比特币和第 2 层闪电 (LN) 网络在一些汇款通道中的使用，“比特币质押”将在 2024 年成为一种叙事。随着比特币区块链上交易成本的上升，比特币最大化主义者将开始传播您可以质押的消息在 BTC 网络上并赚取收益。如今，质押到闪电节点的情况已经发生，但存在风险且回报较低，因为您的 BTC 用于闪电网络上的支付结算。借助Amboss等抽象化管理闪电节点技术细微差别的扩散协议，以及Fedi等联合自助托管解决方案，用户将能够通过冷钱包参与汇款市场并赚取一些收益。此外，作为权益证明区块链的安全提供商，比特币持有者将在 2024 年获得新的商机。利用像基于 Cosmos 的 Babylon 这样的项目，比特币持有者将能够通过提供 PoS 链的非托管质押来赚取收益，比特币持有者将能够通过他们的比特币赚取收益，并有可能参与一系列其他生产性用例。比特币。

11. A breakout blockchain game will finally arrive.
11.突破性的区块链游戏终于到来。

Web3 Gaming Investment Web3 游戏投资

Source: DappRadar as of 10/12/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
来源：DappRadar 截至 2023 年 10 月 12 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

Blockchain gaming will see at least one title surpass 1 million+ daily active users, demonstrating the long-awaited potential. Among candidates to achieve this milestone, IMX is most likely to become a top 25 coin by market cap (currently #42) with the release of Illuvium, Guild of Guardians, and other high-budget games in 2024 and a well-designed token that aligns interests better than most. According to a recent report from DappRadar, the WAX blockchain currently leads the gaming sector with 406k daily unique active wallets, of which ~100k are playing Alien Worlds, a metaverse with multiple simple games that reward players with the Trillium token. However, many of these players are likely bots farming the tokens due to the simplicity of the games. On the other hand, Immutable has multiple AAA games building on their platform that implement token models that cannot be simply farmed and are truly fun games to play. These titles, which have been building for years and received $100m+ in funding, are being released in 2024. They could attract players at the scale of traditional AAA games like Starfield, which was released earlier this year and reached 10 million players within its first two weeks.
区块链游戏将至少有一款游戏日活跃用户超过 100 万以上，展现出人们期待已久的潜力。在实现这一里程碑的候选者中，随着 2024 年 Illuvium、Guild of Guardians 和其他高预算游戏的发布以及精心设计的代币，IMX 最有可能成为市值排名前 25 的代币（目前排名第 42）。比大多数人更能协调利益。根据 DappRadar 最近的一份报告，WAX 区块链目前在游戏领域处于领先地位，每天有 40.6 万个独立活跃钱包，其中约 10 万个正在玩 Alien Worlds，这是一个包含多种简单游戏的元宇宙，可以用 Trillium 代币奖励玩家。然而，由于游戏的简单性，这些玩家中的许多人可能是种植代币的机器人。另一方面，Immutable 在其平台上构建了多个 AAA 游戏，这些游戏实现了不能简单耕种的代币模型，并且是真正有趣的游戏。这些游戏已经开发多年，并获得了超过 1 亿美元的资金，将于 2024 年发布。它们可以像《Starfield》等传统 AAA 游戏那样吸引玩家，《Starfield》于今年早些时候发布，首个版本就拥有 1000 万玩家。两周。

Additionally, Immutable has been working to resolve many of the technical pain points that have inhibited the success of Web3 gaming so far, such as wallet management. Immutable’s “Passport” allows users to log in to games and manage their blockchain-based game items through a familiar single sign-on process while abstracting away blockchain interaction. The increased simplicity that Immutable provides gamers combined with large distribution partners such as the Epic Games Store and GameStop could finally allow a blockchain-based game to become a mainstream hit.
此外，Immutable 一直致力于解决迄今为止阻碍 Web3 游戏成功的许多技术难题，例如钱包管理。 Immutable 的“护照”允许用户通过熟悉的单点登录流程登录游戏并管理基于区块链的游戏物品，同时抽象出区块链交互。 Immutable 与 Epic Games Store 和 GameStop 等大型发行合作伙伴相结合，为游戏玩家提供了更高的简单性，最终可以让基于区块链的游戏成为主流。

12. Solana will continue to outperform ETH as DeFi TVL returns.
12. 随着 DeFi TVL 的回归，Solana 将继续跑赢 ETH。

Solana Total Value Locked
Solana 总价值锁定

Source: DefiLlama as of 11/28/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：DefiLlama 截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

Solana will become a top 3 blockchain by market cap, Total Value Locked (TVL), and active users. Fueled by this rise, Solana will join the spot ETF wars thanks to a flurry of asset managers submitting filings. Related to Solana's continued market share gains, we see a legitimate possibility that Solana-based price oracle Pyth flips Chainlink in Total Value Secured (“TVS”). For reference, Chainlink today stands at ~$15bn TVS vs. Pyth’s <$2bn, with that dominance driven primarily by blue-chip DeFi protocols on Ethereum mainnet. As TVL continues to grow across high-throughput chains (like Solana) and Chainlink struggles to find institutional adoption of its LINK token, we expect Pyth to gain meaningful market share on the back of several genuine innovations, including its "pull" architecture and confidence interval system.
Solana 将成为市值、锁定总价值 (TVL) 和活跃用户排名前三的区块链。在这一上涨的推动下，由于大量资产管理公司提交了文件，Solana 将加入现货 ETF 战争。与 Solana 市场份额的持续增长相关，我们认为基于 Solana 的价格预言机 Pyth 在总价值担保（“TVS”）方面翻转 Chainlink 的可能性是合理的。作为参考，Chainlink 目前的 TVS 约为 150 亿美元，而 Pyth 的 TVS 不足 20 亿美元，其主导地位主要是由以太坊主网上的蓝筹 DeFi 协议推动的。随着 TVL 在高吞吐量链（如 Solana）上持续增长，而 Chainlink 努力寻找机构采用其 LINK 代币，我们预计 Pyth 将在几项真正的创新（包括其“拉动”架构和信心）的支持下获得有意义的市场份额间隔系统。

13. DePin networks see meaningful adoption.
13. DePin 网络得到了有意义的采用。

Hivemapper Unique Km Mapped
Hivemapper 绘制的独特公里数

Source: Hivemapper, as of 12/1/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
来源：Hivemapper，截至 2023 年 12 月 1 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

Multiple decentralized physical infrastructure (DePin) networks will see meaningful adoption that captures the public's attention.
多个去中心化物理基础设施 (DePin) 网络将得到有意义的采用，从而吸引公众的注意力。

Hivemapper, the decentralized mapping protocol aiming to bootstrap a community-owned competitor to Google Streetview, will map its 10 millionth unique KM, surpassing 15% of global roads capacity. Hivemapper uses its native token, $HONEY, to incentivize thousands of drivers worldwide to mount dashboards to their cars and contribute to its growing database. This global network of permissionless contributors may give Hivemapper a meaningful speed and cost-of-capital advantage relative to the incumbent Google. Google Maps is projected to make more than $11bn in revenue in 2023, representing a meaningful opportunity for Hivemapper if the experiment is successful.
Hivemapper 是一种去中心化地图协议，旨在引导社区拥有的竞争对手与 Google Streetview 竞争，它将绘制其第 1000 万个独特的 KM，超过全球道路容量的 15%。 Hivemapper 使用其原生代币 $HONEY 来激励全球数千名驾驶员将仪表板安装到他们的汽车上，并为其不断增长的数据库做出贡献。相对于现有的 Google，这个由无需许可的贡献者组成的全球网络可能会给 Hivemapper 带来有意义的速度和资本成本优势。预计到 2023 年，Google 地图的收入将超过 110 亿美元，如果实验成功，这对 Hivemapper 来说将是一个有意义的机会。

Helium, the decentralized network of wireless hotspots, will reach 100k paying subscribers for its nationwide US 5G plan, up from 5k currently. Hotspots can be set up by anyone, and hotspot operators are paid through crypto rails in Helium’s native tokens. This powerful system of incentives gives Helium some key advantages relative to incumbent wireless infrastructure:
Helium 是一个分散的无线热点网络，其全美 5G 计划的付费用户数量将从目前的 5,000 增加到 10 万。任何人都可以设置热点，热点运营商通过 Helium 原生代币的加密货币轨道进行支付。相对于现有无线基础设施，这种强大的激励系统为 Helium 提供了一些关键优势：

• It is capital-light (from Helium’s perspective).
  它是轻资本（从 Helium 的角度来看）。
• It turns hotspot providers into advocates & supporters (given their ongoing stake in the network).
  它将热点提供商转变为倡导者和支持者（考虑到他们在网络中的持续利益）。
• It gives Helium the ability to respond to real-time data & improve the network by adjusting its incentives (i.e., boosting rewards in areas with poor coverage).
  它使 Helium 能够响应实时数据并通过调整激励措施（即提高覆盖率较差的地区的奖励）来改进网络。

Wireless infrastructure is a $200B, relatively mature market. We see significant scope for disintermediating legacy providers (Towers) as end-users tend towards low-cost solutions with a differentiated brand (“user-owned”). Helium claims they can deliver data at less than 50% of the cost of legacy networks. As crypto adoption becomes more mainstream, and if that claim is true, they will likely join a significant share.
无线基础设施是一个$200B、相对成熟的市场。我们认为，随着最终用户倾向于具有差异化品牌（“用户拥有”）的低成本解决方案，传统提供商（塔楼）脱中介的空间很大。 Helium 声称他们可以以不到传统网络 50% 的成本提供数据。随着加密货币的采用变得更加主流，如果这种说法属实，他们可能会加入重要的份额。

14. New accounting treatment will rejuvenate the case for corporate crypto holdings.
14. 新的会计处理将为企业持有加密货币注入活力。

Base Weekly Fees 基本每周费用

Source: DefiLlama as of 11/28/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：DefiLlama 截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

Coinbase will become the first publicly traded company to break out and report Layer 2 blockchain revenues in its quarterly filings as its Base Protocol crosses $100M+ in annualized revenues and becomes a meaningful contributor to the business. The additional disclosure may be catalyzed by corporate adoption of new FASB guidelines that allow corporates to book mark-to-market gains on crypto, which will favorably impact corporate preference for holding Bitcoin and other crypto as treasury assets. Due to these accounting changes, which take effect in 2025 but can be adopted by corporates earlier, a major, non-crypto financial entity (bank, exchange) may announce the creation of a quasi-public blockchain like an L2, with the possible bridging capability to public blockchains by authorized participants.
Coinbase 将成为第一家在季度报告中公布并报告 Layer 2 区块链收入的上市公司，其 Base Protocol 的年化收入突破 1 亿美元以上，并成为该业务的重要贡献者。企业采用新的 FASB 准则可能会促进额外的披露，该准则允许企业对加密货币按市值计价，这将有利地影响企业持有比特币和其他加密货币作为库存资产的偏好。由于这些会计变更将于 2025 年生效，但企业可以更早采用，主要的非加密金融实体（银行、交易所）可能会宣布创建类似 L2 的准公共区块链，并可能桥接授权参与者公开区块链的能力。

15. DeFi Reconciles with Know Your Customer (KYC)
15. DeFi 与了解你的客户 (KYC) 相协调

KYC-enabled and walled garden apps like those using Ethereum Attestation Service or Uniswap Hooks will gain significant traction, approaching or even flipping non-KYC applications in user base and fees. Uniswap will lead other protocols in enabling this functionality, which will drive institutional liquidity and volume to the protocol. The additional volume from KYC-gated hooks will significantly bolster protocol fees by allowing new entrants to participate in DeFi without the fear of interacting with OFAC-sanctioned entities. The addition of hooks will help Uniswap reinforce its moat and competitiveness, which should drive token appreciation, especially once the DAO finally votes in favor of turning on the Uniswap Protocol fee switch to allow value to accrue to the token. If so, we expect such fees to be no higher than 10bps.
支持 KYC 的围墙花园应用程序（例如使用以太坊证明服务或 Uniswap Hooks 的应用程序）将获得巨大的吸引力，在用户基础和费用方面接近甚至翻转非 KYC 应用程序。 Uniswap 将引领其他协议实现此功能，这将推动该协议的机构流动性和交易量。 KYC 门控挂钩带来的额外交易量将显着增加协议费用，让新进入者无需担心与 OFAC 制裁的实体互动即可参与 DeFi。挂钩的增加将有助于 Uniswap 加强其护城河和竞争力，这应该会推动代币升值，特别是当 DAO 最终投票支持打开 Uniswap 协议费用开关以允许代币增值时。如果是这样，我们预计此类费用不会高于 10 个基点。

Decentralized Exchange Market Share
去中心化交易所市场份额

Source: DefiLlama as of 11/28/23. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
资料来源：DefiLlama 截至 23 年 11 月 28 日。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。无意作为购买或出售此处提及的任何名称的建议。

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