Investors are finally putting their money where their mouth is.
投资者终于开始付诸行动。
U.S.-based mutual and exchange-traded funds have drawn a net $172 billion of inflows so far this year, a marked turnaround after they collectively bled assets in each of the past two years.
截至今年目前为止，总部位于美国的共同基金和交易所交易基金吸引了净流入资金 1720 亿美元，这是过去两年每年资产净流出的明显逆转。
The flows mark a break from the risk aversion that investors had shown for much of the past two years and an embrace of the narrative that a strong U.S. economy will support financial markets. Assets in money-market funds and other cash-like products that investors favored last year have plateaued. Investors are putting their money to work in stocks and bonds instead.
这些资金流向标志着投资者在过去两年中表现出的风险规避态度的转变，并接受了一个观点，即强劲的美国经济将支撑金融市场。去年投资者青睐的货币市场基金和其他类似现金产品的资产已经趋于平稳。投资者现在将资金投入股票和债券市场。
“The economy is in good shape, labor markets are in good shape, and central banks globally look ready to provide support,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “That’s an attractive backdrop for investing, and it’s the primary reason you’re seeing an increased appetite for everything.”
“经济状况良好，劳动力市场状况良好，全球央行似乎准备提供支持，” State Street Global Advisors 的首席投资策略师迈克尔·阿隆（Michael Arone）表示。“这为投资提供了有利背景，这也是您看到对各种投资品种兴趣增加的主要原因。”
Flows to U.S. stock and bond funds this year are the strongest since 2021 when interest rates were near zero. Globally, the net $468 billion invested in ETFs through April is the highest on record, according to ETFGI data.
今年以来流向美国股票和债券基金的资金流动是自 2021 年利率接近零时最强劲的。根据 ETFGI 数据，全球截至 4 月份投资于 ETF 的净额为 4680 亿美元，创下历史新高。
The soft-landing trade appears fully back in vogue after several months of hot inflation data rattled investor confidence. The most recent consumer-price data was lower than forecast, and first-quarter earnings results showed booming corporate profits. The S&P 500 is up 11% in 2024, trading just below its record.
软着陆交易在数月来的高通胀数据动摇投资者信心后似乎完全回归。最新的消费者价格数据低于预期，第一季度盈利结果显示企业利润激增。标普 500 指数在 2024 年上涨 11%，交易略低于其纪录水平。
Skeptics argue that equity valuations look expensive and the extra yield offered by risky corporate debt is historically low. The S&P 500’s price compared with expected earnings over the next 12 months is currently in the top decile of its historical range, according to Morgan Stanley.
怀疑论者认为股票估值看起来昂贵，而高风险企业债券提供的额外收益历史上很低。根据摩根士丹利的数据，标普 500 指数当前与未来 12 个月预期收益相比的价格处于其历史范围的前十分位数。
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This week, traders will closely watch Friday’s release of the personal-consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets appear sanguine about the economic outlook currently, but a hot inflation number could cast doubt on their hopes for rate cuts.
本周，交易员将密切关注周五发布的个人消费支出指数，这是美联储首选的通胀衡量指标。市场目前对经济前景似乎持乐观态度，但如果通胀数据走高，可能会对他们对降息的希望产生怀疑。
Wall Street is currently pricing in at least one interest-rate cut later this year, though minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting showed central-bank officials are still concerned about persisting inflation. If the easier monetary policy that investors are anticipating doesn’t materialize, the stock-market rally is likely to sputter, analysts warn.
华尔街目前至少在定价今年晚些时候会有一次降息，尽管美联储最近一次会议的记录显示中央银行官员仍然担心持续的通胀。分析师警告称，如果投资者期待的宽松货币政策没有出现，股市的涨势可能会受阻。
Investors look anything but defensive. Of the 10 ETFs that have taken in the most money this year, just one is a bond fund. Two track the price of bitcoin.
投资者看起来一点也不保守。今年吸引资金最多的 10 只交易所交易基金（ETFs）中，只有一只是债券基金。有两只跟踪比特币价格。
The leader, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, is on pace for a banner year. Investors have added a net $37 billion in less than five months; the annual record for any ETF inflow is $50 billion.
领头者——Vanguard 标普 500 ETF 正朝着一个辉煌的年份迈进。投资者在不到五个月的时间内净增资金 370 亿美元；任何 ETF 流入资金的年度纪录为 500 亿美元。
The risk-taking extends into fixed-income markets, where some of the most popular funds over the past month hold riskier corporate bonds and loans that pay higher yields.
“In the last few weeks, we’ve seen significant inflows to loans,” Arone added. “That tells me that investors’ risk appetite is elevated, their confidence is higher and they’re willing to take credit risk.”
Shane Archuleta, a 29-year-old IT professional in Fort Myers, Fla., is one of the investors rushing into the market. Archuleta said he now tries to invest almost 50% of his after-tax income into retirement and taxable accounts that he manages on Robinhood and E*Trade.
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Archuleta has mostly been buying ETFs, including Vanguard’s S&P 500 fund, a Vanguard growth fund, and Invesco’s QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. With a multidecade investment horizon, he says he prefers higher-risk, growth-oriented funds for now.
“My big thing is, ‘don’t bet against the U.S. equity market.’ I have no doubt in the very long run it’s going to go up,” Archuleta said.
Fund managers are optimistic, too. Bank of America’s most recent survey of fund managers showed the most bullish sentiment since 2021. The survey found cash levels at multiyear lows and stock allocations at multiyear highs.
Flows tend to lag behind performance. Stocks and bonds got crushed by the Fed’s rate-rising campaign in 2022, so a slower 2023 wasn’t necessarily a surprise, said Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research.
What stands out this year is the breadth of funds taking in money. Investors aren’t just putting all their money into the booming technology sector.
“The flows are very broad-based across all categories,” Ullal said. “It’s not like a couple of funds or categories are carrying the space.”
That strength extends overseas. After trailing U.S. performance for years, international stock benchmarks in Europe and Japan have notched records in 2024. Investors’ money has followed.
“This year will be the record for global ETF inflows unless something unforeseen happens,” said Deborah Fuhr, founder of ETFGI. “We’re seeing a lot of tailwinds.”
Write to Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com
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