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<时间data-dl-uid="0">东部时间2024年10月10日下午3:01 东部时间
埃隆-马斯克(Elon Musk)表示,机器人出租车的亮相是特斯拉自推出 Model 3 轿车以来最重要的时刻。Photo:Cfoto/祖马新闻
Tesla TSLA -0.95%decrease; red down pointing triangle Chief Executive Elon Musk has for years teased plans for a fully autonomous robotaxi that can shuttle paying customers around town.
Tesla TSLA -0.95%下降;红色向下三角形 行政总裁Elon Musk多年来一直在预告他计划推出一款全自动机器人出租车,可以在城市中穿梭接送付费用户。
On Thursday night, the world is expected to finally get a look at what exactly he has in mind.
本周四晚,全世界终于有望一睹他的真容。
Tesla is expected to unveil its first driverless car, along with details on a forthcoming robotaxi service that would put it in direct competition with Alphabet’s Waymo, a self-driving car venture launched more than a decade ago.
特斯拉预计将发布其首款无人驾驶汽车,以及即将推出的机器人出租车服务的详细信息,这将使特斯拉与Alphabet 的 Waymo 展开直接竞争,后者是一家十多年前成立的自动驾驶汽车企业。
Musk has described the reveal as the company’s most significant moment since the rollout of the mass-market Model 3 sedan in 2017. The event is scheduled for 7 p.m. Pacific time at the Warner Bros. studios in Burbank, Calif.
马斯克将此次发布会描述为公司自2017年推出大众市场Model 3轿车以来最重要的时刻。发布会定于太平洋时间晚上 7 点在加州伯班克的华纳兄弟工作室举行。
“This will be one for the history books,” he posted on X last month. He also has indicated that the company could provide a timeline for the introduction of lower-cost models, after delaying plans for a long-promised $25,000 car.
"上个月,他在 X 上发帖称:"这将是载入史册的一刻。他还表示,在推迟了长期承诺的 2.5 万美元汽车计划之后,公司可能会提供推出低成本车型的时间表。
The billionaire entrepreneur is betting the company’s future on a pivot to robotics and artificial intelligence, a shift that comes as Tesla’s profitability has slipped and broader consumer interest in electric cars has cooled within the past couple of years.
这位亿万富翁企业家正将公司的未来押注在向机器人技术和人工智能的转型上,而这一转型是在特斯拉盈利能力下滑以及过去几年消费者对电动汽车的兴趣降温的情况下发生的。
Musk has said such technologies could help boost Tesla’s market value to as much as $30 trillion, nearly 40 times its current worth.
马斯克曾表示,此类技术可帮助特斯拉将市值提升至 30 万亿美元,是其目前市值的近 40 倍。
埃隆-马斯克(Elon Musk)带领特斯拉重视机器人技术和人工智能。Photo:大卫-斯旺森/路透社
Expectations are running high among analysts and investors that he will show off a functioning autonomous vehicle and lay out specific plans for its launch, including the timing. They anticipate he will offer more details on a ride-hailing service that is expected to use the Tesla-built robotaxi.
分析师和投资者对他将展示一辆正常运行的自动驾驶汽车并制定具体的推出计划(包括时间安排)的期望很高。他们预计,他还将提供更多有关打车服务的细节,预计该服务将使用特斯拉制造的机器人出租车。
Tesla’s stock has rallied ahead of the presentation with shares up 52% since Musk announced it in early April. Tesla originally scheduled the event for Aug. 8 but delayed it after Musk asked for design changes on the vehicle.
自马斯克在 4 月初宣布这一计划以来,特斯拉的股价在发布会前已经上涨了 52%。特斯拉原定于 8 月 8 日举行发布会,但在马斯克要求更改车辆设计后推迟了时间。
Musk has referred to as the robotaxi as the Cybercab. An early sketch, published in Walter Issaacson’s biography of Musk, shows an almond-shaped, two-seater vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals, and doors that lift up toward the front.
马斯克将这种机器人出租车称为 "赛博卡博"(Cybercab)。沃尔特-伊萨奇森(Walter Issaacson)为马斯克撰写的传记中发表的早期草图显示,这是一辆杏仁形的双座汽车,没有方向盘或踏板,车门可向前方升起。
In April, Tesla showed investors its concept for an Uber-like ride-hailing app that riders summon driverless vehicles to pick-up locations.
今年 4 月,特斯拉向投资者展示了一款Uber 类似打车应用的概念,乘客可以召唤无人驾驶汽车到接送地点。
Despite Wall Street’s excitement, some analysts remain cautious, noting that the CEO has a pattern of overpromising and under-delivering, particularly when it comes to autonomous vehicles.
尽管华尔街很兴奋,但一些分析师仍持谨慎态度,他们指出,这位首席执行官一贯承诺过多而兑现不足,尤其是在自动驾驶汽车方面。
“We believe the Robotaxi event will be long on vision, and short on immediate deliverables or incremental revenue drivers,” said Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi.
"Bernstein 分析师托尼-萨科纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)说:"我们认为,Robotaxi 活动的愿景很远大,但缺乏直接的可交付成果或增收动力。
Tesla teased the idea of a robotaxi as early as 2016, with Musk describing a shared fleet of autonomous Teslas that owners could lease out to strangers for extra income. In the years that followed, he said every Tesla sold since late 2016 has the hardware to function as a robotaxi, implying that once the software catches up, most Tesla drivers would be able to participate in the program.
特斯拉早在 2016 年就预告了机器人出租车的想法,马斯克描述了一个由自动驾驶特斯拉组成的共享车队,车主可以将其出租给陌生人以获得额外收入。在随后的几年里,他说自 2016 年底以来售出的每一辆特斯拉都具备作为机器人出租车的硬件功能,这意味着一旦软件跟上,大多数特斯拉司机都能参与该计划。
His ambitions face technological and regulatory hurdles. While some states have taken a hands-off approach to regulating driverless cars, the rules remain patchwork, and some governments have cracked down on their operation in recent years.
他的雄心壮志面临着技术和监管方面的障碍。虽然一些州对无人驾驶汽车的监管采取了放手不管的态度,但相关规则仍是零敲碎打,而且近年来一些国家的政府对无人驾驶汽车的运营进行了严厉打击。
Last year, General Motors’ driverless-car operation Cruise was temporarily shut down, after a single accident led to it losing its permit in California. The Detroit automaker has since put its autonomous cars back on the road in some cities with safety staff behind the wheel to monitor.
去年, 通用汽车公司的无人驾驶汽车 Cruise 曾因一起事故而暂时关闭,导致其失去了在加利福尼亚州的许可。此后,这家底特律汽车制造商将其自动驾驶汽车重新投放到一些城市的道路上,并由安全人员在方向盘后进行监控。
Tesla also needs to make leaps in advancing its own driver-assist software, which today is considered a “level 2” system. Its most advanced version—a feature Tesla refers to as “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)”—requires the driver to remain alert and ready to take over, and it doesn’t make the cars autonomous.
特斯拉还需要在提升自己的驾驶辅助软件方面实现飞跃,目前,特斯拉的驾驶辅助软件被认为是 "二级 "系统。其最先进的版本--特斯拉称之为 "完全自动驾驶(受监控)"的功能--要求驾驶员保持警惕并随时准备接管,但这并不能使汽车实现自动驾驶。
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS 分享您的想法
Would you be comfortable riding in a robotaxi? Why or why not? Join the conversation below.
您是否愿意乘坐机器人出租车?为什么?请参与下面的对话。
By contrast, Waymo has achieved “level 4” autonomy on its cars, which means it can operate them without a human driver in most circumstances.
相比之下,Waymo 的汽车已经实现了 "4 级 "自动驾驶,这意味着它可以在大多数情况下在没有人类驾驶员的情况下操作汽车。
Where Tesla deploys its robotaxis remains an open question. Waymo, the market leader in the technology, has fleets circulating within limited areas in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Austin, Texas.
特斯拉在哪里部署其机器人轴仍是一个未决问题。Waymo 是该技术的市场领导者,其车队在旧金山、洛杉矶、凤凰城和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的有限区域内循环行驶。
Musk has assigned priority on development of a robotaxi over a more affordable electric car, a move that has surprised and unnerved some investors.
马斯克优先发展机器人出租车,而不是更经济实惠的电动汽车,此举令一些投资者感到惊讶和不安。
Some analysts see robotaxis as a huge growth opportunity for Tesla. Deutsche Bank estimated such a venture could bring Tesla an additional $4 billion in sales and another $1 billion in pretax earnings by 2030. RBC pegged the total global revenue opportunity for robotaxis at $1.7 trillion by 2040.
一些分析师认为,robotaxis 将为特斯拉带来巨大的发展机遇。Deutsche Bank估计,到 2030 年,这样一家企业可以为特斯拉带来 40 亿美元的额外销售额和 10 亿美元的税前收益。加拿大皇家银行预计,到 2040 年,机器人轴的全球总收入机会将达到 1.7 万亿美元。
“If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company,” Musk told investors in April.
"如果有人不相信特斯拉会解决自动驾驶问题,我认为他们就不应该成为公司的投资者。
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Appeared in the October 11, 2024, print edition as 'Robotaxi To Show Tesla’s AI, Driverless Ambitions'.
刊登在 2024 年 10 月 11 日印刷版上的标题是 "Robotaxi 将展示特斯拉的人工智能和无人驾驶雄心"。
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