A race that seemed like a lost cause for Democrats after President Joe Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance has become too close to call, especially in the swing states that will decide the vote. Harris’ ability to close the gap on economic issues has been vital to the party’s resurgence. September polling data from Morning Consult finds 48% of likely voters trust Trump to handle the economy, compared with 47% for Harris, a sharp improvement from where Biden was polling.
一场在乔·拜登总统 6 月 27 日辩论表现糟糕后似乎对民主党来说是无望的竞选，现已变得难以预测，尤其是在将决定投票的摇摆州。哈里斯在经济问题上缩小差距的能力对党的复兴至关重要。来自晨咨询的九月民调数据显示，48%的可能选民信任特朗普处理经济事务，而哈里斯为 47%，相比拜登的民调有了显著改善。

Harris’ challenge is that it isn’t clear voters prefer her plans, particularly on issues such as inflation. “I’m not sure it’s the messaging that’s been so effective as it’s been just a change in messenger,” said Cameron Easley, lead U.S. politics analyst for Morning Consult, a business-intelligence firm.
哈里斯面临的挑战是，选民是否更喜欢她的计划并不明确，特别是在通货膨胀等问题上。“我不确定这是否是信息传递的有效性，而更像是传递者的变化，”商业情报公司 Morning Consult 的首席美国政治分析师卡梅伦·伊斯利说。

Dumping Biden gained Democrats a lot of ground, but taking any more from Trump will require some creativity.
抛售拜登让民主党获得了很多优势，但要从特朗普那里再获得更多则需要一些创造力。

There’s a reason Trump is continually pushing his plans for tariffs: Voters like them, despite the economic burden they are likely to impose. “The word tariff, properly used, is a beautiful word. One of the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard,” Trump said in Savannah, Ga., on Tuesday. He pledged to impose new tariffs on companies that don’t manufacture in the U.S. as part of an effort to “rescue the middle class.”
特朗普不断推动他的关税计划是有原因的：尽管这些关税可能带来经济负担，但选民们喜欢它们。“关税这个词，正确使用时，是一个美丽的词。我听过的最美丽的词之一，”特朗普在乔治亚州萨凡纳说。他承诺对不在美国制造的公司征收新关税，作为“拯救中产阶级”努力的一部分。

Harris is also looking abroad defensively as she thinks about how to strengthen the middle class, she said in a speech in Pittsburgh Wednesday. One of the pillars of her “opportunity economy” plan is “leading the world in the industries of the future, and making sure America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century.” She is promising a beefed-up version of Biden’s industrial policy, to steer investment into sectors including artificial intelligence, biotech, and—her crypto critics may be happy to hear—blockchain.
哈里斯在周三的匹兹堡演讲中表示，她在考虑如何加强中产阶级时，也在防御性地关注海外。她的“机会经济”计划的支柱之一是“在未来产业中引领世界，确保美国而不是中国赢得 21 世纪的竞争。”她承诺将加强拜登的工业政策，引导投资进入包括人工智能、生物技术，以及她的加密货币批评者可能会高兴地听到的区块链等领域。

That sounds promising, but campaign politics are already getting in the way of the industries of the present. She didn’t mention it in her Pittsburgh speech, but Harris has pledged to block the proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel. She has the strong backing of the United Steelworkers in doing so, but if the deal fails, U.S. Steel is unlikely to be able to come up with the $2.7 billion in investments Nippon has
这听起来很有希望，但竞选政治已经妨碍了当前的行业。她在匹兹堡的演讲中没有提到，但哈里斯承诺阻止美国钢铁公司与日本新日铁之间的拟议合并。她在这方面得到了美国钢铁工人的强力支持，但如果交易失败，美国钢铁公司不太可能筹集到新日铁所需的 27 亿美元投资。 pledged 质押.

U.S. Steel’s management has warned it may need to close regional facilities, which the union dismisses as empty threats. Her campaign declined to comment.
美国钢铁公司的管理层警告称，可能需要关闭地区设施，但工会对此表示这是空洞的威胁。她的竞选活动拒绝发表评论。

Trump, in Savannah, reiterated that he, too, plans to block the deal. Asked about the risks of blocking the deal, Trump campaign senior advisor Brian Hughes blamed Biden and Harris for the company’s problems. “The way to save American companies and prevent foreign ownership is to unleash domestic energy production to drive down costs and apply smart tariff policies that force foreign companies to play on a level playing field against American workers and American innovation,” Hughes said in an email statement.
特朗普在萨凡纳重申，他也计划阻止这项交易。当被问及阻止交易的风险时，特朗普竞选高级顾问布莱恩·休斯将公司的问题归咎于拜登和哈里斯。休斯在一份电子邮件声明中表示：“拯救美国公司和防止外国拥有权的办法是释放国内能源生产，以降低成本，并实施智能关税政策，迫使外国公司与美国工人和美国创新在同一竞争环境中竞争。”

In their push to gain ground among union-friendly voters in Pennsylvania, the two campaigns risk losing sight of the broader economy. Manufacturing accounts for 567,000 jobs in the commonwealth, according to ZipRecruiter. That might seem like a large number, but it amounts to just over 10% of the 5.5 million total private jobs in Pennsylvania. While the two candidates promise a manufacturing renaissance, the economy increasingly runs on services, which account for more than 70% of the value created by the U.S. economy, according to government data.
在争取宾夕法尼亚州支持工会的选民时，这两个竞选活动冒着失去对更广泛经济视野的风险。根据 ZipRecruiter 的数据，制造业在该州占据了 567,000 个就业岗位。这个数字看起来很大，但仅占宾夕法尼亚州 550 万个私营部门总就业岗位的 10%以上。虽然两位候选人承诺制造业复兴，但根据政府数据，经济越来越依赖服务业，服务业占美国经济创造的价值的 70%以上。

A global strategy that started from the way the U.S. economy currently operates would look very different from the defend-and-protect strategies the political candidates are offering up, says Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research. “The three things that the U.S. has in excess are domestic consumption, private sector liquidity, and top-notch tourism destinations with appeal to Chinese travelers (Las Vegas and California being the two obvious destinations!),” Papic writes in a recent note to clients. “All three can be enlisted successfully in the economic and geopolitical fight against China while enabling U.S. businesses to generate the necessary tax revenue with which to finance U.S. national security priorities.”
一项基于美国经济当前运作方式的全球战略将与政治候选人所提出的防御和保护策略截然不同，BCA Research 的首席策略师 Marko Papic 表示。“美国过剩的三样东西是国内消费、私营部门流动性以及对中国游客具有吸引力的一流旅游目的地（拉斯维加斯和加利福尼亚是两个显而易见的目的地！），”Papic 在最近给客户的报告中写道。“这三者都可以成功地被用于与中国的经济和地缘政治斗争，同时使美国企业能够产生必要的税收，以资助美国国家安全优先事项。”

But “Bring China to Vegas” isn’t quite as compelling a slogan as “Keep Steel American.”
但“把中国带到拉斯维加斯”并不像“让钢铁保持美国制造”那样引人注目。

Harris and Trump will continue to compete on policy as the campaign grinds toward a finish. The two have pledged deep tax cuts without a considered plan for how to offset the falling revenue that will result, even as federal deficits sit well above their peacetime averages. Both will struggle to deliver those cuts given that Congress remains a hostile place to enact legislation of almost any kind.
哈里斯和特朗普将在竞选接近尾声时继续在政策上竞争。两人都承诺大幅减税，但没有考虑如何弥补将导致的收入下降，尽管联邦赤字远高于和平时期的平均水平。鉴于国会仍然是一个对几乎任何类型的立法都持敌对态度的地方，两人都将难以实现这些减税承诺。

The renaissance of the middle class that both candidates are promising will be tempting to many voters. Delivering it, however, will be another matter entirely.
两位候选人所承诺的中产阶级复兴将吸引许多选民。然而，实现这一目标将是完全不同的事情。

Write to Matt Peterson at
写信给马特·彼得森 matt.peterson@dowjones.com